BidenGPT and More on the Deal

Summary

The Commentary Magazine Podcast: “BidenGPT and More on the Deal” – Detailed Summary

Release Date: January 16, 2025

Introduction

On January 16, 2025, Commentary Magazine hosted a pivotal episode titled “BidenGPT and More on the Deal,” featuring a panel comprising John Podhoretz (Host and Editor of Commentary), Abe Greenwald (Executive Editor), Christine Rosen (Social Commentary Columnist), and Dan Senor (Author and Host of the “Call Me Back” Podcast). The episode primarily delved into President Joe Biden’s Oval Office speech and the intricate hostage deal and ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The discussion provided deep insights into the political, social, and emotional ramifications of these events.

---

1. Critique of President Biden’s Oval Office Speech

Timestamp: [00:21 – 03:25]

John Podhoretz opened the episode by lambasting President Biden’s recent Oval Office address, labeling it as “the worst Oval Office speech of my lifetime.” He criticized the speech's incoherent structure, suggesting it was partly crafted by artificial intelligence and partly by outdated journalists:

John Podhoretz [00:24]: “I believe that this was the worst kind of rhetoric... it was bizarre.”

Podhoretz argued that the speech failed to resonate with the American public, predicting it would mark the end of Biden’s active role in public life:

John Podhoretz [03:25]: “That guy is gone from American public life. His wife is gone from American public life.”

Abe Greenwald compared Biden’s current presence to long-canceled TV shows still running in reruns, emphasizing the perceived stagnation:

Abe Greenwald [03:25]: “Like, you know, like when a show... That's the Biden vibe now.”

Dan Senor contributed by highlighting Biden’s disconnect with the Democratic Party’s base, noting Biden’s enrichment and questionable decisions amidst his criticisms of oligarchs:

Dan Senor [03:42]: “The speech itself was a perfect example of a lack of awareness about what the Democratic Party is now.”

Christine Rosen reflected on the speech’s failure to galvanize support, suggesting that internal Democratic strife further undermined Biden’s position.

---

2. Internal Dynamics of Israeli Politics Amidst Hostage Negotiations

Timestamp: [12:53 – 20:22]

The conversation shifted focus to the hostage deal and ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Dan Senor provided an overview of the latest statements from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office, indicating incomplete agreement on the deal:

Dan Senor [12:53]: “Netanyahu’s office last night issued a statement saying, we have not fully agreed to this deal.”

Christine Rosen explained the complexities of the negotiations, particularly the veto power Israel holds over the list of Palestinian prisoners to be released:

Christine Rosen [14:52]: “Israel has a veto. So if there's a Namen type agreement on the list, Israel can say no.”

The panel discussed internal Israeli tensions, highlighting the opposition from right-wing politicians like Ben Gvir and Smoltrich, who questioned the deal’s terms and the commitment to resume hostilities post-ceasefire:

Christine Rosen [14:40]: “Smoltrich is arguing... he wants that commitment.”

John Podhoretz emphasized the precarious nature of Netanyahu’s government, suggesting that if key right-wing members withdraw support, it could destabilize the current administration.

---

3. Societal and Emotional Impact on Israeli Society

Timestamp: [20:19 – 54:41]

Christine Rosen provided a poignant analysis of the deal's impact on Israeli society, emphasizing the profound emotional toll on families with hostages:

Christine Rosen [27:13]: “It's like a wrecking ball for Israeli society.”

She recounted personal anecdotes illustrating the mental health struggles, marital strains, and societal despair stemming from prolonged hostage situations:

Christine Rosen [27:13]: “Children of these parents... it doesn't matter.”

The panelists discussed the unprecedented nature of the current conflict’s duration, noting that Israel’s military doctrine, traditionally centered on short wars, was ill-equipped for this extended engagement:

Christine Rosen [23:54]: “Israel is fighting the longest war in its history.”

John Podhoretz likened the situation to past Israeli hostage crises, such as the Entebbe raid and the case of Gilad Shalit, drawing parallels in the psychological aftermath:

John Podhoretz [31:40]: “Gilad Shalit was a shell of a person.”

The discussion also touched upon the logistical and emotional challenges posed by Israel’s ongoing negotiations, emphasizing the uncertainty and fear among the populace regarding the fate of hostages:

Christine Rosen [49:32]: “They know if their loved one is on the list... they're living in fear.”

---

4. Political Ramifications in the United States and Potential Trump Involvement

Timestamp: [33:36 – 44:30]

The conversation transitioned to the potential political fallout in the United States, particularly concerning former President Donald Trump’s role in the hostage deal. Dan Senor speculated on Trump’s potential claims of victory in his inaugural address:

Christine Rosen [42:02]: “...hostage families believe this would not have happened without Trump’s intervention.”

Christine Rosen highlighted the sentiment among Israeli hostage families that Trump’s unpredictable involvement was instrumental in advancing the negotiations:

Christine Rosen [42:23]: “They were completely ineffective... welcoming Trump to shake things up.”

The panel debated whether both Biden and Trump would leverage the deal for political gains, with Senor questioning its long-term utility amidst ongoing violent tensions:

Dan Senor [42:02]: “Do you see that as politically useful for either one of them long term?”

Christine Rosen concluded that Trump’s contributions are viewed more favorably in the context of the hostage deal, potentially overshadowing Biden’s efforts:

Christine Rosen [44:30]: “This is viewed as Trump’s win more than Biden’s.”

---

5. Detailed Analysis of the Hostage Deal Phases and Future Implications

Timestamp: [35:12 – 52:47]

Dan Senor and Christine Rosen provided an in-depth analysis of the hostage deal, outlining its phased approach:

• Phase One: Release of a subset of hostages, primarily vulnerable individuals such as women, children, and the elderly.
• Phase Two: Further negotiations contingent on the successful implementation of Phase One.
• Phase Three: Potential continuation or termination of hostilities based on the outcomes of previous phases.

Christine Rosen emphasized the stringent conditions attached to the deal, noting Hamas’s strategic maneuvers to prolong negotiations and maintain political power in Gaza:

Christine Rosen [33:03]: “Hamas is trying to cling on and stay in power.”

The panelists expressed skepticism about the deal’s ability to secure the release of all hostages, highlighting fears that many may never be returned:

Christine Rosen [36:43]: “They're slowly going to have to come to grips with the fact that it is more likely than not that they will never see them again.”

John Podhoretz reflected on the moral dilemmas faced by Israeli families, particularly those with male soldiers not included in the release list, and the broader ethical implications under international humanitarian laws:

John Podhoretz [50:41]: “They exist in a slightly different legal, moral realm... Geneva Convention rights.”

Christine Rosen shared heartbreaking accounts of families navigating the negotiation complexities, often having to prioritize the release of certain loved ones over others:

Christine Rosen [52:43]: “We want closure. We want to bury...”

The panel underscored the inherent challenges and uncertainties of the phased deal, cautioning that public sentiment may shift dramatically if the negotiations falter:

Christine Rosen [48:24]: “Is this the last deal that is ever gonna happen?”

---

6. Concluding Thoughts and Emotional Reflections

Timestamp: [54:41 – End]

As the discussion drew to a close, the panelists reflected on the immense suffering endured by Israelis and the psychological scars left by prolonged hostage situations. Christine Rosen poignantly compared the current crisis to historical traumas faced by the Jewish community, underscoring the depth of collective anguish:

Christine Rosen [57:05]: “This is the most suffering and the worst conditions Jews have lived under in captivity since the Holocaust.”

John Podhoretz reiterated the desperate hope that the deal would succeed, while acknowledging the profound uncertainties and potential for further heartbreak:

John Podhoretz [58:25]: “Stories that their stories tell...”

The episode concluded on a somber note, emphasizing the resilience of Israeli society amidst unparalleled adversity, while cautiously optimistic about the hostage deal’s potential to alleviate some of the nation’s suffering.

---

Notable Quotes

• John Podhoretz [00:24]: “I believe that this was the worst kind of rhetoric... it was bizarre.”
• Abe Greenwald [03:25]: “Like, you know, like when a show... That's the Biden vibe now.”
• Dan Senor [03:42]: “The speech itself was a perfect example of a lack of awareness about what the Democratic Party is now.”
• Christine Rosen [14:52]: “Israel has a veto. So if there's a names type agreement on the list, Israel can say no.”
• Christine Rosen [27:13]: “It's like a wrecking ball for Israeli society.”
• John Podhoretz [31:40]: “Gilad Shalit was a shell of a person.”
• Christine Rosen [42:02]: “...hostage families believe this would not have happened without Trump’s intervention.”
• Christine Rosen [57:05]: “This is the most suffering and the worst conditions Jews have lived under in captivity since the Holocaust.”

---

Conclusion

This episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast provided a comprehensive and emotionally charged examination of the current geopolitical tensions involving President Biden’s administration and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Through incisive analysis and personal anecdotes, the panel shed light on the multifaceted implications of the hostage deal, the internal strife within Israeli politics, and the broader societal impacts. The inclusion of notable quotes with precise timestamps enhances the narrative, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the complex issues at hand.

Transcript

[Abe Greenwald]

Hope for the best, Expect the worst.

[Christine Rosen]

Some preach and pain Some die of.

[John Podhoretz]

Thirst the way of knowing which way.

[Christine Rosen]

It'S going Hope for the best Expect.

[Abe Greenwald]

The worst Hope for the best.

[John Podhoretz]

Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily podcast. Today is Thursday, January 16, 2025. An important day in my life and my family's life. This is my father's 95th birthday. Happy birthday to Norman Pod Horizon on his 95th birthday. I am John Pod Horiz, the editor of Commentary. With me, as always, executive editor Abe Greenwald. Hi, Abe.

[Abe Greenwald]

Hi, John.

[John Podhoretz]

Social Commentary columnist Christine Rosen. Hi, Christine.

[Dan Senor]

Hi, John.

[John Podhoretz]

And joining us today, author of the co author of the Genius of Israel and Startup Nation and the host of the indispensable Call Me Back podcast. Indispensable for anybody who wants to know what is going on in Israel with the war between Israel and Hamas and therefore a unique presence today given the ceasefire. Our friend Dan Senor. Hi, Dan.

[Christine Rosen]

Hey, John. How are you?

[John Podhoretz]

Good. All right, so before we get to that, we're just going to spend two minutes on the worst Oval Office speech of my lifetime. I believe I'm trying very hard to think as a former presidential speechwriter myself, and therefore somebody who has a kind of, you know, historical vested interest, having seen almost every presidential speech of any major note since 1976. And thinking back, there have been Oval Office speeches like the, or, you know, firesides, but whatever, like the Malay speech that Carter gave in 1979 that have had very deleterious consequences or like Boomerang backfired or something like that. Bill Clinton saying that, you know, paying taxes is something we called patriotism, which was his first major speech in 1993, did not serve him well. For example, paying higher taxes as a foreign patriotism. But I think as a piece of rhetoric, this was a bizarre like the first half was written by an AI and the second half was written by Flora Lewis and Al Newharth in the 1970s. Like take the worst kind of, you know, what's wrong with our country. It's this thing called artificial intelligence and social media aren't doing fact checking and but it was 17 minutes that will put puts paid on this administration in the sense that I believe that this is the last that we are going to hear from Joe Biden. I mean, maybe once a year somebody will go and interview him in Wilmington or something and have him say, oh, created 17 million jobs, whatever. But this was ice flow Monday at 12:01. That guy is gone from American public life. His wife is gone from American public life. He this presidency will Go down the memory hole and that will be the end of him. This is where I, he's, it's already.

[Abe Greenwald]

Like, he's, he reminds me of, you know, like when a show, those shows that are on the air that you didn't realize they're still on the air, you know, you go, oh my God, that's still. I thought that ended. I thought it was just like in reruns. That's, that's, that's, that's the, that's the Biden vibe now.

[Dan Senor]

But, but the speech itself was a perfect example of a lack of awareness about what the Democratic Party is now. I mean, the fact that this guy who has enriched himself and his family for decades in Washington, D.C. and who just gave, you know, freedom medals to several questionable billionaires is railing about an oligarch. Oligarchs and oligopoly and, and, and the social media stuff is obviously hilarious. But I think you have to see his speech in as a bookend with Jill Biden's Washington Post interview because both of them are quite bitter.

[John Podhoretz]

There's a, there's this interview appeared yesterday morning in the Washington Post and she.

[Dan Senor]

Score settling particularly with Nancy Pelosi and others. But I think that sort of, that tone of bitterness is something you see throughout a lot of the Democratic Party right now. You saw it and you've started to see it in the senators who are, who are doing their advise and consent process with some of the nominees. They haven't quite come to grips with what just happened to their party. And you really saw that in thrown into high relief with Biden's somewhat also kind of sadly slurring remarks in the Oval Office.

[John Podhoretz]

Dan, quickly, before we get to Israel, can I. Yeah, go, go ahead.

[Christine Rosen]

No, that word that you just said, Christine, sadly, like, that's, at this point I'm in the sad phase. I just feel this whole thing is sad. I don't mean. And people say, oh, I feel sad is like what they really mean is, you know, they're, it's actually sad. I mean, sad like it's a pathetic, it's a pathetic situation. And all I think about whenever I watch the speech or he honestly thought he tried to run for president again. We, we would be right now. Like he actually believed we should have four more years of this. This would be at his best. It would be deteriorating from here. And I mean, I know the whole thing came collapsing and the Democratic leadership and the establishment drove him out. But like there was a moment where the Democratic establishment and the whole machine was Rallying behind him. And. But for that debate, I keep thinking about it, but for that debate, had Trump not pushed for and agreed to that early debate. Think about what, we wouldn't have had a debate until after the nomination.

[John Podhoretz]

Then. Then Trump would have won 40.

[Christine Rosen]

I know, but. But imagine what.

[John Podhoretz]

I know.

[Christine Rosen]

It's just that. It's just that this, that we could have. That they thought he could be like this and make the case that he should be beginning his second term on Monday.

[John Podhoretz]

I just, you know, in the end, he said this thing last week where someone asked him in one of these farewell interviews. I guess he's going to give one Tonight to Lawrence O'Donnell. That should be uninteresting.

[Christine Rosen]

It's going to be a killer.

[John Podhoretz]

It's going to be a thrilling confrontation. But he said last week, you know, that he could have won if he'd run and Harris and Kamala could have won, too. So it's like, okay, are you trying to make the case that you're seeing, like, the triumph of joy? Where is this? Who's the president of the. You know, the questions they ask people when they're, when they're old, in the hospital, you know, when they come out of whatever is like, who is the president right now? Could you actually legitimately say that you were the president? I'm not even sure that's true. I wanted to ask you one question, then get to Israel. Pam Bondi, the nominee for attorney general who had her confirmation here. There were like six confirmation hearings yesterday.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

Sean Duffy talked about his children, is very char Department of Education. And then Marco Rubio, you know, had a kind of love fest, from what I could tell, mostly with. With. To the extent that I saw it. And Pam Bondi got into it with a newly minted Senator Adam Schiff, in a way that is like, you know, maybe some of these Trump changes are actually kind of salubrious because I've never seen anything like this. You know, basically, nominees, it's like butter wouldn't melt in their mouths. Somebody says, you know, are you going to do X, Y and Z? And then she would say, senator, I'm going to ask my staff to look into that. We'll get you answers tomorrow. I just want you to understand that we're all in this together and something like that. So Adam Schiff says to her, are you going to prosecute Liz Cheney? And she's like, why aren't you asking me why crime is up in your state by 27%?

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

And he keeps. And he's like, you're not allowed to talk to me like that. Effectively. He keeps talking over her, and she's like, I don't know. I'm not answering your questions. Why don't you ask the right questions?

[Dan Senor]

Well, and reminding him that he was censured for some of the. Censured for some of his remarks. That was actually.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, I just thought it was interesting because it's like, okay, you know what? Maybe all of this. All of the civility stuff, you know, and the kind of the fake civility of the Senate hearing, you know, could use a little barnacle scraping.

[Christine Rosen]

Right, right. And you saw. I saw the same dynamic with Hegseth in his hearing.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah. So. All right, so it's. It's. So maybe they shouldn't pack six in one day. Let's spread them out so we can actually watch these.

[John Podhoretz]

You can watch them like. Yeah, enjoy, like, gladiatorial combat.

[Abe Greenwald]

Yeah.

[Dan Senor]

She weaseled her way out of answering the questions about the work she did on sort of denying the last election. And that was the part where I really did think she came across as not reliable. And I wish she had had better answers for those questions. She worked on those cases.

[John Podhoretz]

She knew that she didn't have better answers because there are no better answers than the answer she gave, which is she didn't want to say that she didn't do it, and she didn't want to say that Trump won in Twitch. She did not want to say that Trump won in 2020, and she didn't want to say that Trump won in 2020. And so that's where, you know. But in the end, she saw a.

[Abe Greenwald]

Lot of things, though.

[John Podhoretz]

Oh, yes, she saw things. But I mean, there's. But there's one thing which is, you know, this is a relatively new thing in American history, like the. The hearing, the public hearing. Often people did not actually have. Here, there were no hearings. They would just be voted up and down or they. They couldn't get to Washington, you know, because they were like riding on a horse from Kentucky when they were having their confirmation hearing. Somebody else would sit in for them or answer questions. This is, again, kind of a television era, media era thing. And, you know, if. If these end up going badly for the Senate, you could have a kind of return to the, Ah, this is all crap. No one answers any serious questions. We just have a partisan vote.

[Christine Rosen]

The nominees go meet with the senators like they do individually, and then. Right.

[John Podhoretz]

And then there's just a vote because it's not going to serve anybody's Purpose, like the, the people who are. Like the grilling of Hegseth, for example, like, Elizabeth Warren came out looking like a fool. It's not helpful to her.

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

To look the way Hegseth just like.

[Christine Rosen]

Knocked it out.

[Dan Senor]

I'm sorry, but those memes that were going around of all those screaming, lazy.

[John Podhoretz]

Hirono yelling at him, Warren yelling at him, you know, Klobuchar yelling at him. I know it was. Yeah. Anyway, okay, so Trump's nominees are all apparently going to sail through. I mean, the weird thing is that there's a momentum effect, right. Because I know Tulsi Gabbard is still highly controversial, but, you know, if you have this thing where everybody is kind of the, the boulder is rolling down the hill and the path of least resistance for 53 Republican senators is just to vote to confirm and then deal with the consequences afterwards, maybe she'll. It'll end up 50, 50, and. And Vance will break the tie in the Gabbard case. I don't know. I mean, I haven't really seen.

[Christine Rosen]

I mean, she's still doing her meetings. You know, there's, you know, so I, There's a lot we'll learn before the hearing.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah. By the way, John, John Ratcliffe, who is, who is the CIA director who also had his hearing yesterday, did something I thought was pretty interesting again, in the combat. He was like, I was the guy who said that the virus came from a lab. I'm one of these people that. I was the Director of National Intelligence and people were trying to suppress me from having my views put out on social media during the year 2020. And I was a senior official in the United States government. So don't be talking to me about what disinformation is.

[Abe Greenwald]

By the way, that's another irony of the Biden speech. Just to jump right back there. He's going to talk about the, the disinformation and misinformation on social media platforms. The guy who suppressed the story about him and his son. Give me a break.

[Christine Rosen]

Right?

[John Podhoretz]

Fair enough. Anyway, all right, let's get to the main event. Hostage deal, cease fire, deal. Dan, you are as well informed a person as exists in the United States about. About these things. One thing to be said, I don't think it's going to derail it, is that the Netanyahu. Netanyahu's office last night issued a statement saying, we have not fully agreed to this deal. Hamas is playing games. After the announcement that the deal had been reached, Hamas is now playing games with the terms and details of the deal and I have, I am not yet ready to bring it to the, to the Israeli full cabinet for a vote. Is that.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah, it seems to me, and obviously it's, it's a little, you know, foggy right now in terms of what's happening. But there, there seems to be two hold ups. One is so they agree on the number of prisoners, of Palestinian prisoners that will be released from Israeli prisons, but Israel has a veto. So Hamas, the way this works and the same, same way it worked last time to In November of 23 is Hamas provides a list of the people it wants released and as part of the deal Israel has a veto. So we can look so if like a yes Sinoir type, you know, appears on the list Hamas, Israel can say no way that person isn't being released. And so Israel can exercise its veto. A B Israel wanted as part of the deal that some of the, the prisoners who are serving like multiple life sentences and are they, if they're going to be released, they're released at the very end of the process, not at the beginning. And so meaning they want to save those prisoners for perhaps at some point of Israel, not in this phase, gets these young Israeli soldiers who are being held hostage out of, out of Gaza. And my understanding is Hamas has been trying to frontload some of those folks. So there's, so there's, so there's a dust up over which Palestinian prisoners are going to be released. By the way, this has happened in the past, so this doesn't surprise me and I think these things get worked out. The second issue is under the deal and we can, I don't know how granular you want to get a deal, but it's a, but it's a 42 day, 42 day cease fire and then you. The hope is, I think it's unrealistic but the hope is then they go to phase two of the deal and Hamas. Sorry, Smoltrich is arguing. He wants to come.

[John Podhoretz]

Trick is, Betsy, he is one of the two furthest right wing members of the Bibi coalition has eight seats. If he were to pull out of the government, the government would fall.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah, maybe.

[John Podhoretz]

Although Yair Lapid, the head of the opposition said that he would direct the opposition to approve the deal.

[Christine Rosen]

The point is Ben GVIR is saying he's threatening to pull out in some form. So. But he can't do it alone. He needs Smoltrich to do it with him. Smoltrich is also the finance minister, I should say so he's got a pretty big job in the government. If both of them pull out then poses a real threat to, to Netanyahu's government. Smolich wants a commitment from Netanyahu that after phase one, Israel goes back to war full stop, that there is no transitioning to pos, quote unquote, phase two of the ceasefire. And now anyway, so he wants that commitment and so there's some last minute negotiations with Smolich about, you know, you know, how much Netanyahu commits to that. I should, I should say in the deal that they reached In November of.

[John Podhoretz]

23 the, when 80 hostages were released over seven days.

[Christine Rosen]

Right. The one of the holdups within the cabinet similar to this situation. Actually one of the hold ups inside the cabinet is many ministers did not believe that Israel would go back to the war after the eight days. That by pausing for eight days Israel is basically stopping the war. And in the intra cabinet debates they made clear Dermer, Ron Dermer in particular made clear to the.

[John Podhoretz]

Ron Dermer is the senior advisor, like Bibi's closest.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah, he's his alter ego.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

And he's, and he's the Minister of Strategic Affairs. He argued we can and we will most likely go back to war after eight days. Just because we pause for eight days doesn't mean we can't resume. And so it's a similar dynamic now. Although I think Smallchurch is basically arguing eight days is one thing, 42 is another. If we stop fighting for 42 days, the war is over. And I want to know the war is not over. And so you know, now the problem is if Bibi says that explicitly and that's public that you know, you know is going to put off some of the other parties in these negotiations. So anyways, these are these last minute hiccups. I would be surprised, I would really be surprised if we don't see the first three female hostages arriving in Israel sometime on Sunday. If anything, maybe it gets pushed to Monday. But I, but I, I would be shocked if it doesn't happen. I mean now the mood in Israel right now, it's just everyone I speak to, it's like everyone has now just assumed this deal is happening. Everyone has just assumed they're going to see three of these young women within days. And if suddenly the Israeli public is told this is not happening. It's one thing when hostage rounds of negotiations have, have fell, fallen apart in the past and they've been soul crushing. For instance, in the summer when the, when there was, they were pretty close or allegedly pretty close, the deal fell apart. They had a list, I think, of 24 names. And, you know, the families of some of the people on that list who I, you know, people I'm in touch with, they, they knew. They were shown the list. They were showing their children's names in Arabic, meaning it was the list that Hamas had of their, these Israelis kids, names in Arabic that they were going to be released. And so, and then, then for the deal to fall apart and then, by the way, for some of those people who are on that list to be executed was the weekend at the end of the summer when the six, when the six hostages were executed is just so, so take what I just described, I think, I think would be even more intense and more destabilizing for Israeli society than what.

[John Podhoretz]

Look, you told.

[Christine Rosen]

Because, because the idea. Because, because Israelis just assume now they're going to start seeing these hostages and if, and if they're told, no, it's not happening.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, you told me you got back, you were there in December. You got back, I think it was December, and you said it was December.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

The mood in the country after this kind of like, rallying of spirit after the pagers and the assassination of Mashal, the killing of Sinwar, the, the sort of triumphant.

[Christine Rosen]

Hania, the killing of Hania, they haven't.

[John Podhoretz]

They haven't killed me. I'm sorry.

[Christine Rosen]

I'm sure Mr. Khalid Masha would not appreciate you.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, I apologize to the, to him with a target on his forehead. Yeah. Haniyeh. And then, and then, of course, the sort of, the, the, the kind of destruction of, of Hezbollah's headquarters in and in Beirut and all of that, all that had rallied the Israeli national spirit and that. But you had sensed in December that things were falling back into a kind of existential despair and that this is part of, it's not just Trump saying, you better be done or there'll be hell to pay. That even on, on Bibi or the government's behalf, this feeling that it's, you know, 15 months and, and, and, and the agony is just too great.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

Was very much present in your.

[Christine Rosen]

So, yeah, since October 7th, I've been to Israel, you know, I don't know, four or five times. And I would say that that trip was, was the hardest, oddly. And I didn't expect it to be the case because for all the reasons you're saying, because Israel had been achieving all this extraordinary success. But I think there are two things going on. One was this sense that even with all this success, there wasn't much Israel could do to get these hostages out. I mean, that is. It's one thing when Israel is sort of losing her stock, which it was kind of March, April, May then. I mean, it was brutal to say these hostages are there and we don't see how we get them out. But it was weirdly understandable because there was no. There's sort of like the war was stuck. But here was the sense that Israel can pull off this dazzling, you know, the most important covert, most impressive covert operation any Western country has conducted in, like, history. I mean, the pager attack, the walkie talkie attack, the, you know, know, they can send fighter jets to bomb the Houthis in Yemen. They can take out Iran's air defenses. They can do this, they can do that. But 40 miles from Tel Aviv or whatever it is, one mile from Southern Israel, there are Israeli citizens in dungeons now for, you know, think about it in our sense, for two Thanksgivings, it's been two Thanksgivings since, like, longer than that. So. And they can't do anything to get these people out. So even with all the success, Israel is still stuck with close to 100 people out of a population, I should add, nine and a half million people you're talking about. It would be the equivalent right now. Imagine 3,500Americans. If you were just told 3,500Americans are held by Al Qaeda for two Thanksgiving, basically a year and a half. And even with our dazzling military capabilities and success, and we can do anything, we can't do anything to get them out. And that's our new reality. We're just going to have to learn to live with that, because that was like, settling in. Like, how do you go on? How do Israelis go on with life? Like, do we just say, you know, Ron Arad, who was this Israeli soldier who was taken hostage, you know, a couple decades ago, just. It was never resolved. No one ever knew what happened to him. He just kind of disappeared. And I remember some. An Israeli producer of my podcast, Elon Benatar, who, you know, John said to me, he says, it's like, it's like, are we just going to have a hundred Rona rods? Like, we just. Is this what you're just going to have to learn? Like, that's it. It's just, you know, we never deal with it and that. That was settling in. And I. So that was hard, obviously. And then the other part was, Israel's military is not wired to fight the war. It is fighting. It is not. I mean, I know you know this firsthand from your nephew, John Ben Gurion's doctrine, his theory was always short wars and away games, like not fighting on its territory and its borders and not, I mean, here Israel is now fighting the longest war in its history and with no end in sight. By the way, I think this is Israel's new normal on one front or another. It's going to be fighting a war. And the drain on Israeli manpower is they're just not equipped for this. And so the burden is falling on.

[John Podhoretz]

35 year old men. 35 year old, 40 year old men, right?

[Christine Rosen]

And so, and by the way, right.

[John Podhoretz]

Now, right now, because of the, what, what the deal requires, there are these patrolling requirements in the deal, both in the south on the Philadelphia corridor and then in the, basically the middle, bisecting from Kibbutz B area to the water on the Netzerine corridor. Israeli reservists are going back into Gaza to station themselves during the ceasefire. And of course, should the ceasefire fall apart and action has to start again, either they're going to have to fight or they're going to be sitting ducks. Like, this is no joke, right? This is a period of great peril for Israeli reservists who are staffing, who are going to be staffing this ceasefire proposal over the next six weeks.

[Unknown]

So the holiday rush is over. Sometimes it's nice to treat yourself after the holiday rush, I think, because you're so focused on getting the gift, turning the gifts and doing all of that, that you might want to actually find a treat in finding something reasonable and wonderful that you can use for the rest of the winter and through the year even, particularly when it's kind of gross out. And those of us who even love the chilly weather. And I do need something to break up long winter nights. So one thing I've learned to do in the last couple of months is to treat myself to quints, treat myself to a little something warm, a little something comfortable, a little something beautiful. Quints where you can treat yourself to everyday luxury at an affordable price. Something everyone needs in their closet, in my opinion, based on my very deep experience. Now, Quince's iconic Mongolian cashmere sweaters, which start at $50. Or if you want to really up the luxe factor, check out their Italian leather handbags, washable silk skirts and European linen sheet sets. Whatever you're looking for, all Quint Items are priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. They're able to do that by partnering directly with top factories and cutting out the cost of the middleman, passing the savings on to you. Quint only works with factories that use safe, ethical and responsible manufacturing practices. And of course, they use premium fabrics and finishes for that luxury feel in every piece. I'm telling you right now, every day in the last two weeks, every day in the last two weeks, I have worn a quince sweater. So you should know that I know whereof I speak. Treat yourself this winter without the luxury price tag. Go to quint.com commentary for 365 day returns plus free shipping on your order. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E.com commentary to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quints.com commentary.

[Christine Rosen]

And some of these people have been serving two and 300 days.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

And these are people who are schoolteachers and construction workers and tech entrepreneurs and, you know, people, as you said, like your nephew, like, you know, they're not, they're young, but they're not 20. You know, they're people who have families and lives and kids and one day they're just plucked out of their world. And the stories and this has been underreported, the wear and tear on marriages, on the mental health issues for the children of these parents. They don't, you know, it's just, it's like a wrecking ball for Israeli society. And then when you add on top of it, this sense that and oh, by the way, all these Israelis are being held hostage and we have no real plan to get them out. And even when we're winning, we can't get them out. And that's just our new normal. It's hard to, you can't quantify. It's more art than science. You can't quantify the impact that has at a time that Israel is still asking all these people to leave their jobs and leave their families and go fight. And, you know, I'll tell you, I mean, I won't mention their name, but a family, I'm, you know, I'm in touch with some of these hostage families. So one of them has a, has a loved one or had a loved one in Gaza. And they have another family member who's just been called up to start their army service, a sibling of, of, you know, and so, and this sibling is going in, the sibling is joining the army after the other sibling is sitting there in Gaza. And it's like, and the family said, if you don't want to do this, you don't have to do it. Right? We'll move out of Israel for a couple years. We'll do we understand this is like. And the kid is like, no, I want to go. I'm going to go. And so now that's great. And that's a testament to Israel. I don't know how long. I think there's a sense in Israel, certainly among the leadership, there's got to be a little give here. There's got to be a little bit of a break. The power of seeing some hostages come back, even if it's a bad deal, which it is, but it doesn't mean it's a deal Israel shouldn't do. And I think the power of the seeing Israelis sending the message, Israel sending the message that we will move heaven and earth, we will do everything we have to do to get, you know, hostages out is. Is important. And my only argument on the deal is no matter when Israel does this, it's. It has, it's. It's full of problems, right? But I think the if is so Israel's definitely taking risk by doing this deal. But if you don't take risk now, when do you take it? Israel is in the strongest position it's been in geopolitically, militarily, since I think after the Six Day War. I can't think of another period where Israel's been in a better position. It's the dominant military and intelligence and economic power in the Middle east today. It wasn't that case six months ago. If it is not going to take some risk now to get hostages out, they are basically saying to the Israeli public, we have no plan to get these hostages out.

[John Podhoretz]

And the tragedy, of course, is that the six hostages who were killed in the tunnels, including Hirsch, Goldberg, Poland, the most famous of the, certainly of the American, the American Israeli hostages, what punched the heart out of the hopes, out of certain hopes, is that they were on the verge of being rescued.

[Christine Rosen]

Well, that's who I was.

[John Podhoretz]

They were executed. So that the Israeli sense of itself, which is that we perform miracles like the, the miracles have been performed technologically now in Iran, in Beirut with the pagers. But the miracles before was the miracle of Entebbe, right? That was sort of like. That was Israelis great foundational miracle that they pulled off this insane rescue of 183 or however many people it was in the airport in Entebbe from the hijacking. And Israel came face to face with an effort to do something pretty similar with this tragic consequence that I gather probably put paid to the idea that what they should really be doing is looking in the tunnels to rescue the hostages. Because if they did that, they were putting the hostages at risk and not. And with, with the risk wasn't worth the reward.

[Christine Rosen]

Right?

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, so that, that, that was taken away from them. Which was Right. Was right. No, no, when they win and they win in Rafah and they're really everything, they'll just go down in there and they'll find them, right. And bring them back up and they'll.

[Christine Rosen]

Bring them home, you know, and the Hamas operatives guarding these hostages have been told, if you hear anything, if anything gets close, just execute, execute, execute, execute. So they're, they're in the mode of killing, right? So that's been taken away from them. And I mean, the challenge here is, you know, Israel's been engaged in negotiations throughout its history with numerous countries. I hate to use the term a win win negotiation, but there usually is more or less a win win. When Menachem Begin was negotiating with Anwar Sadat, it was basically a win win. When obviously Israel and the US were negotiating with the Abraham Accords countries, it was basically a win win. This negotiation with Hamas is not like any of those negotiations. It is a zero sum game. Israel wants its hostages back and it wants Hamas gone forever. Hamas wants to figure out a way to hang on, cling on, and stay in power in Gaza. That's what they're both doing. So they're both. So no one can.

[John Podhoretz]

Well, only one side in the end can win.

[Christine Rosen]

Right. And right. So Israel has to try to get its hostages back. The only way can get its hostages back is to actually. This is weird to say this, but they have to convince Hamas, even though they don't want this to be true. Israel has to convince Hamas that by giving up some hostages, Hamas has some narrow path to staying into power. Because, but for that, why would Hamas give up the hostages? It's all about their own survival in Gaza.

[John Podhoretz]

Okay, so can we talk about the deal because. Because I have a question.

[Abe Greenwald]

There's also the issue here, it's tied into this, which is, so how does Bibi finesse his right flank on this issue of resuming the war? Hamas is not gonna say, is not gonna overtly agree to a deal that says, yes, after we release some hostages, you can come back at us.

[Christine Rosen]

Right. I think what will probably happen is if everything goes according to plan, you know, according to how, you know, the Israeli government imagines it. Israel, it's sort of similar to what happened in November, right? So November of 23 is they do the first phase, they get some hostages out, which are the most vulnerable hostages. You're talking about women, maybe some Children, elderly, people, probably one or two of the three Americans that we know are alive. They'll get them out. And then Hamas will do something to make it easy for Israel to justify going back in.

[John Podhoretz]

Right. That's what happened. People probably don't remember this, but I was actually in Israel during the pause in November of 23, and people were coming out every day. And then rockets were fired from. From Hamas territory. That ended the pause. And Israel's like, okay, that's it. And the war had to.

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

Had to reset. They were playing games during that week. They were like, we're going to release. So. And so. And then they didn't. And then they released some people. And then finally, basically, Hamas could not restrain itself any longer and went back, you know, tested the pause by firing rockets. And then Bibi's like, okay, we're done, you know, here. We're going back to war. This is the, the thing that you mentioned here, which is. And this gets to the terms of the deal I wanted to talk about. Yeah, it's very complicated and it's not entirely clear the sequence here. There are these three stages. I want to go into the three stages, but. So the first stage is this six week, 42 day stage, followed by a.

[Christine Rosen]

Well, let me say the. The Nadava, y'all, who's on my podcast. We recorded yesterday who. He's been deep in the agreement. I mean, the terms of the agreement. I mean, he basically said, trying to decipher what's going to happen in phase two and Phase three. He's like, good luck. He's like.

[John Podhoretz]

A friend of mine said there, there aren't. There isn't going to be a phase two or a phase three.

[Christine Rosen]

Ultimately, that was my point.

[John Podhoretz]

If all the hostages come out and it's six, if the hostages come out, if the 33 come out, the 33 come out. But if the 33 come out and then it's 42 days in and Hamas is like, nah, we're not going to do any more. Then it's like, the war starts again. The war starts again. There will be no further hostage releases. Maybe.

[Christine Rosen]

Maybe not.

[John Podhoretz]

Or maybe not. Right. So, but we.

[Christine Rosen]

I mean, after. After. I'll tell you, I mean, I don't mean to. This is, you know, after November of 23. I remember some hostage family saying to me, you know, this is. This is the last deal Israel's ever going to do. And, you know, it was, like, devastating for them.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

And here we are. I'm not like, trust me, for the families who love whose loved ones were executed at the end of the summer of 24. You know, he, you know, for them that, that argument was right. Those people, they'll never get a hostage deal.

[John Podhoretz]

But they're. A very interesting statement was released yesterday by, by Rachel Goldgroup, Poland and John Poland, son Hirsch, right, Was. Was killed in, that. Was executed in that rescue attempt. And they said, and this is where it gets very. They were being very apolitical. This deal, as Biden said last night in his speech, is fundamentally in contour. The deal that was proposed in May of 24 by the Biden administration, and there's this one jagged line in their statement about how we're happy other people are going to see. It's, you know, we need all the hostages home. And, you know, if this deal had gone through in May of 2024, basically our son would not be dead. And this is where I think BB John.

[Christine Rosen]

His name, his name was on the list.

[John Podhoretz]

Was on the list. That's right.

[Christine Rosen]

Because. Because even though he was. Hirsch was close to military age and was male. So under normal circumstances, he would not be released early because he had suffered such a brutal injury on October 7, and he was become an amputee and he, he was now in the list. He was on the list for the first phase. So trust me, this is, I bring.

[John Podhoretz]

This up, I bring this up only to say that there is a deep political danger as this flows over the Israeli public, that if this was really the same deal. Now, granted, as you say, Dan, Israel was not in the military position it's in now, and it could not really. And by the way, it's not that Israel didn't agree to the deal in May or the reassertion of the deal in September. According to Tony Blinken, Hamas scuttled every deal.

[Christine Rosen]

And Brett McGurk, they all said this, by the way, Brett McGurk, he was saying it last summer. He's like, we don't have a Bibi problem, we have a Hamas problem, right?

[John Podhoretz]

But they're standing there saying, if this is the same deal as in May, and we could have come to it in May, the suffering that these people have undergone over the last seven months could have been avoided. Now, you may think that's irrational. You can blame Hamas, whatever, but that's one of the reasons we talk about it being a bad deal. But it's not just that. It's that what if this suffering, and not just their suffering, but the suffering of the families was somehow can be laid at the door of the government in an effective political way. I don't know. That's why this is a very weird period of time.

[Christine Rosen]

Also, the only thing I would say is I got into it a little bit with Nadav on our podcast because he basically said the framework of this deal is the same as the summer deal, the original Biden Netanyahu deal. So basically we're finally getting that deal. Except to your point, for some of these families, it's too late. The framework is the same, but some of the details are different. And those details matter in my view, one of which was the deal from the spring and summer. Hamas was insisting that the war be over in phase one like this, like the Israeli government negotiated hard. We are not declaring the war over. And that I think is extremely important. A B, Hamas said it couldn't really figure out which hostages they had, which ones were dead, which ones were alive. So they gave no commitment to Israel in that, you know, in that into the mediators back then that they were really going to produce many live Israelis. There was, and I know this is a loaded subject. I don't want to, you know, the issue of whether or not Israel should stay in the Philadelphia corridor, which is this important strategic area at the, at the Gaza Egyptian border. Israel was going to have to leave the Philadelphia corridor entirely. Israel stays in the Philadelphia corridor under this deal, at least through the first phase. Not in the same way it's been in it, but it still maintains some presence. So anyways, I can go on and on. There are. My only point is there are meaningful differences right in this deal, relative.

[John Podhoretz]

And you ultimately have the ultimate meaningful difference, of course, is the change in administration.

[Dan Senor]

Can I ask about that actually? Because I'm very curious to hear Dan's prediction. You know, Monday we have an inaugural address by Trump. Do you think first he's going to mention the deal and claim he, he saw it through and it's a win win for him at least as he loves to do with any sort of deal making. Is he just not going to talk about it? But given our domestic politics right now, both Biden and Trump wanted to claim a sort of victory this week.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[Dan Senor]

Do you see that as. As politically useful for either one of them long term? Because we see domestically the issue of Israel and Gaza continues to have its same sort of violent overtones. All the student protesters, Democrats, didn't see this as any sort of end to what their long term campaign is. So how do you see this shaping both the near term and the longer term domestic?

[Christine Rosen]

I have no idea. If what you know if Trump will mention it in his inaugural, but it almost doesn't matter because he's just going to talk about it. He posted something about it yesterday. He's just going to be talking about it nonstop. I think there's a general sense that, and this is the view, I think, for people who are following it over here. And it's also the view of the hostage families, by the way, the hostage families believe what I'm about to say. This would not have happened without Trump's intervention. They really believe that. And these hostage, some of these hostage families, under normal circumstances, most of them are not people who would be, like, naturally sympathetic to Donald Trump. And in fact, these are all people who, over the last 15 months, had spent a lot of time with Biden and Blinken and McGurk and Sullivan, and they'd gotten to know them and they all had their cell numbers and they all, they felt very close to the Biden team, and yet many of them told me they thought the Biden team was, they learned, were completely ineffective. As one family put it to me, Blinken and Joe Biden are the nicest guys. You know, they cry with me, they hug me. They, they, you know, they're empathetic. And yet they were, they like people, the enemies were running circles around them in the Middle East. They were completely ineffective. And they were like, welcoming Trump to just kind of shake things up. If nothing else, the unpredictability of Trump being injected into the region, they believed was the only way to kind of unlock this process that had been stuck. So I think, and, and I think people over here, for those who are following it, this is much more viewed as Biden, sorry, as Trump's win than Biden's win. But I don't think it's going to change much of anything in terms of the toxic debate about Israel over here. I just think it's, I think that the debate about Israel and Gaza and Hamas is about, it's so not about what's really going on. You know, it's about something else. And so the developments don't even matter, you know, regardless of the way.

[John Podhoretz]

So you. Well, we're, we're pushing hard on, on, on time here because Dan has to go. I just wanted to talk about what we, what we're hearing from the Trump people about phase two or about the end of phase one or whatever, which is that we are hearing. They're telling people, telling you, I'm hearing secondhand all that, that, that, that this thing about how the war is not this Deal does not feature a permanent ceasefire or an end to the war. And Israel has the right, therefore, implicitly to restart its hostilities should something happen. But this is where I think it gets interesting because Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor, said, we have agreed or we believe Israel has the right to go back in. Assuming Hamas deserves essentially saying, you, Israel doesn't have the right to go back in unilaterally. In our view, we'd like to say, you know what, we're sick of this, we're going back in. As I think you said was true, In November of 2023, there would need to be a casus belli on the part of Hamas to give the Trump administration the COVID to say, we're with Israel all the way here. If Israel unilaterally breaks the ceasefire, Trump might get angry. Trump might say, this was my ceasefire, this is my triumph. And you're, I'm sorry, I don't, you know, Steve Wytkoff is coming back to yell at Bibi again, I don't know. I mean, that's, that's, I think, a weird set of circumstances. Although, again, what did Pete Hegsest say? Pete Hexess said, I want every single member of Hamas dead.

[Christine Rosen]

And, and Mike Waltz, my podcast, John, he said the exact. He said the same thing. Every member of Hamas should be killed. And I said to him, I said, well, Hamas thinks they're going to stay in power. So like, so I don't know, like how they, it's very. How they.

[Abe Greenwald]

I'm sorry, on this point, it's very confusing because I texted the group yesterday. I saw Mike Walsh say Hamas is not going to be a military force and they're not going to be in government. So, so what are they going to survive as?

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, so my answer was an Amway distributor. I mean, that's the problem.

[Dan Senor]

I would have said a UN funded ngo.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, I mean, that is the problem, right? Is that, is that if, if the policy isn't that Hamas needs to be, you know, literally destroyed, which they're saying is the pot is saying they would like, but is not specifically the policy as laid out in the. Obviously it's not. Hamas wouldn't agree to such a policy. It has seemingly broken through to not demanding that Israel say the war is over. But that's why I say the end of phase one is a very, very tricky thing. But we have six weeks to get to the end of phase one. And here's the question that I have for you because I am so confused. We keep hearing that the Story is three people are going to come out on Sunday and then four people are.

[Christine Rosen]

Going to come out seven days later.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, seven days later. And then over the course of those six weeks, depending on the release of Palestinian prisoners, the remaining. What is that, 28 or 27 or something like that will come out. Including bodies.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

So here's maybe 23 alive and 10 dead.

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

So over 42 days. I don't know how that's. Is that gonna, Is it gonna feel triumph? Is it gonna feel good to the Israelis to know that as this is going on, there are still 65 people in there?

[Christine Rosen]

No, of course not.

[John Podhoretz]

Right, okay.

[Christine Rosen]

So, yeah, no, I mean, it's even worse. Those people are gonna wonder, is this the last deal? It's sort of what I was saying about some thought about November. Is this the last deal that is ever gonna happen? Like, there's no way everyone had to be dragged, kicking, screaming to get this deal done. Do we really think there's gonna be another deal done? So this is what's. I mean, I gotta tell you why I can't think of a single society that is pushed to so many breaking points than Israel. Right. You just think how excruciating it is. So imagine, I don't wanna get into the details because it's so upsetting and it's a lot of dirty laundry that shouldn't be aired. But just imagine the jockeying, understandable jockeying going on within the hostage movement to figure out how to get your loved one added to the first phase list.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

So just think about that. And obviously there's. They agreed on 33. So if one person gets added, some person gets removed.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

So I mean, just. I mean, yeah, okay.

[John Podhoretz]

It's just unspeakable. It's unspeakable.

[Christine Rosen]

And then I know some families who, who know that their loved one is dead and they want the body back. And they're busy out there trying to argue and negotiate for their, for their dead child's body to be returned. And other people in Israel are like, really? We're going to expend capital to like, let's get the living ones out first. But obviously for some of these families, they're like, we want to. We want closure. We want to bury our. And now why these next few weeks are going to be so brutal is they're not releasing, my understanding, the dead bodies that are going to be part of this deal to the very end to like the fifth or sixth week. So Israelis are going to be watching week to week. They know if Their loved one is on the list. But if they don't know if, but if week after week time is passing and their loved one isn't being released in those early weeks, they're. They're living in fear of, oh, my God, is mine worst news.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah. And by the way, the other, the other thing that people aren't even talking about. And again, I know you.

[Christine Rosen]

You got fine for a couple more minutes. Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

Okay. So there are soldiers that are in captivity. They are not on this list. Right. There are soldiers who are essentially male soldiers.

[Christine Rosen]

Male soldiers, female soldiers, I think are going to, are going to come out ye.

[John Podhoretz]

So they're, they're not on this list at all. And the families there, I believe if you really list, if you're like listening with Straussian ears, you are getting the sense, given what's in the details of phase two and phase three, that the families of the soldiers who are among those captive are slowly going to have to come to grips with the fact that it is more likely than not that they will never see them again.

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

And they. We're not even talking about them because they exist in a slightly different legal, moral realm. They're actually, because they have been taken in war. They're, weirdly enough, even though you're talking about Hamas, which is not a state, nobody has no dicta, but they're still supposed to have certain kinds of Geneva Convention rights or an understanding, particularly if you're trading prisoners for. For soldier, you know, prisoners for other people. And I don't think people have come to reckon with that either, because I think.

[Christine Rosen]

And that's why some of those families of the male soldiers have been. Some of them, not all of them, to be fair, but some of them have argued we can't agree to this phased deal. It's got to be one deal like a, like, like everyone gets released in one. There's one package here. Because they argue if it's easy, it's quote, unquote easy for Hamas to justify releasing women, children and elderly people or people who've been wounded or who are sick. Unless we, unless our loved one, our son, who's, you know, 25 is attached to them.

[Unknown]

He's.

[Christine Rosen]

Who the hell knows when he's going to get out. So don't go cut your own deal.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

And obviously. And then others argue there's no quote, unquote cutting our own deal. We're trying to get out, whoever we can get out, and we'll get them out. We can get them out. And I mean, so these are yeah, it's like I said earlier, it's like you can't imagine another. Again, it's. It's the scale. By the way, I'll tell you a story. Someone I know who worked on the hostage negotiation team told me in Israel that after October 7, the Biden team said, you know, we have a whole department focused on hostage negotiations at the U.S. state Department. They're at your disposal. You know, coordinate, get advice, you know, work with them. They're there to help you. And the Israeli team thought, oh, great. They thought they were dealing with, like, the parent in the relationship. You know, like, they're the experiences. The US they have, you know, big infrastructure, resources. They're going to help us. And at some point, the. The US Hostage team said, this is. We've never seen anything like this. Like, we, like, you're. We can't. We can't help you. Meaning we, you, you. You are now more experienced in this than we are. Because the US Deals with, you know, Brittney Griner and deals with these. 1. This is to have. At the time, it was 250, but now, you know, close to 100. To have that many hostages being held by one organization and to have. They said they've never had women and children. They've never had children. The idea that children. The US Said, this is just. This is a whole. This is out of our depth. It's out of our experience. So I just keep coming back to, like, these decisions and how you, you know, Again, imagine the US, 3500Americans being held hostage. Women, children, elderly, people, like, what we would be doing, what imagine will be going on here, it's just, It's. It's like, yeah, it's brutal.

[John Podhoretz]

So I think, you know, we have been on this. We have been speaking very negatively about this deal since the terms came out to 48 hours ago or whenever it was. And I do want to say that, that given the fact that it is now in place, that the deal is. The deal, assuming that it doesn't fall apart in the next 24 hours because of Hamas hijinks or whatever, that I don't want to belittle or act as though I have any wisdom or that any. Any of us who are disheartened by the deal have any wisdom to offer Israelis about how there was a better path. I mean, if you're focused on the hostages, if the, if the focus is, you know what, I'm sorry, this is. War is hell. Life is awful. Israel can't. You cannot be blackmailed by Terrorists with hostages. It's going to have to go ahead and do what it does, and we'll see what the end results are. But clearly that's not how Israel can react to this. And so under the circumstances, the only thing really to do is hope that this goes well. I mean, and hope that the, that the fear of Trump, whatever that is, doesn't abate. The one thing, the one danger of Trump taking victory laps is that it will have a. It will have the negative consequence of giving Hamas some sense that it has a whip hand here, of denying Trump this win that it wanted. If it does X, Y and Z. And so they may have America over a barrel. That's not great. But I don't really question the Israeli government's decision. Whatever the Cabinet decides, I don't feel like we're in a moral place. Yeah, do that. If the Israeli, if the government doesn't fall, that means that it will be the consensus view of Israel that this deal is better than not having the deal. And Israel is the. Those Israel, everyone in Israel are the people who are going to have to deal with the consequences, not me or not. You know, geopolitically, that may be a slightly different story, but that's, that's where things are.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

So hostile though I may be to the deal as a. As a strategic construct.

[Christine Rosen]

Analytically. Analytically.

[John Podhoretz]

Analytically. But emotionally, you cannot question.

[Christine Rosen]

I know you're not a huge fan of the Dava Yel, but he did say on my podcast yesterday, he said, and this, you know, this is the most suffering and the worst conditions Jews have lived under in captivity since the Holocaust.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

And I think, because Jews have had a lot of suffering. And I'm thinking.

[John Podhoretz]

And Israelis have had a lot of suffering.

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

I mean, you know, right now there's this movie out about September 5th, about the, about the hostage taking. And at the Munich Olympics, that was 11 athletes. One of them was mutilated, was sexually mutilated before he was. Was killed. And, you know, but that was 48 hours or 24 hours. Like, it wasn't 470 days.

[Christine Rosen]

Right.

[John Podhoretz]

And, you know, we know Gilad Shalit was kept held in captivity for five years. And I don't know if you had this experience, Nam, but I met Gilad Shalit six months after he came out, and it was a very distressing experience. He was, I mean, I don't know where he is now. I, you know, it's 15 years later. But he was a shell of a person. Like, he was not. He was somebody who looked like he had come through the concentration camps.

[Christine Rosen]

Yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

I mean, it was not, not very different from that. And so, you know, God knows what Israel is going to see over the next.

[Christine Rosen]

Right. Six weeks and learn about and the.

[John Podhoretz]

Stories that their stories tell. So, so anyway, so we can only hope. I mean, now the deal is in place and hope is a, hope is a perfectly acceptable strategy that, that, you know, a turn has been taken for the better for them and, and, and for Israel's spirit and that all that needs to happen will happen. So, Dan, senor, thank you.

[Christine Rosen]

Thank you guys so much for your.

[John Podhoretz]

Wisdom and knowledge and, and, and, and slight, you know, green shoots of something.

[Christine Rosen]

I don't know which is. Which must be jarring to the commentary.

[John Podhoretz]

Very jarring. Crushing.

[Christine Rosen]

It's very anti, you know, crushing.

[John Podhoretz]

Very anti. Our brand. But you did, you did use Abe's phrase. You did say it's worse than that. And Abe didn't have to.

[Christine Rosen]

Oh, yeah, it's worse than that. Exactly.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah.

[Christine Rosen]

All right. As long as I didn't provide any permission structures.

[John Podhoretz]

All right.

[Christine Rosen]

Take your.

[John Podhoretz]

For Christine and Ava, I'm John. Pod Horiz. Keep the camel party.