The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: Boats Off Venezuela, Negotiators in Moscow

Date: December 2, 2025

Host: John Podhoretz

Guests: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel

Episode Overview

This episode tackles two major stories:

1. The controversy and conflicting reports over a U.S. military strike against a Venezuelan drug boat, with broader discussion on media, legality, and implications of U.S. military actions.
2. The role of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as U.S. emissaries in Moscow, attempting to broker a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war, and the complex foreign policy and political ramifications at play.

The episode also examines Trump administration strategies, the shifting boundaries between war and law enforcement, America's emergency mindset, and philosophical debates swirling around both military and diplomatic actions. The conversation is sharp, skeptical, and deeply attuned to historical precedent and political realities.

Section 1: Venezuelan Drug Boat Strike Controversy

[02:00 – 24:00]

Summary

• Contradictory Media Reports:

  • CNN & Washington Post allege Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered a fatal secondary strike on September 2, ostensibly to “kill them all”—potentially a war crime ([03:00]).
  • New York Times releases a report contradicting this, citing five sources asserting Hegseth didn’t give such an order.
  • The panel agrees that Congress needs to investigate due to direct contradictions ([06:30]).

• Media & Administration Responsibility:

  • “The media has a responsibility to get stories right, full stop. It is also on the administration’s communication with the public.” - John Podhoretz ([10:09])
  • Early news narratives may stick, even if subsequently disproven.

• Historical Patterns & Political Motives:

  • Comparison to “Russia hoax” stories and the 2019 impeachment saga—how rumors or accusations were weaponized politically ([12:10]).
  • Discussion of a recent Democratic military ad emphasizing “not following illegal orders,” only to be colored by the Venezuela strike story timed to break ([11:40]).

• Legality and Classification of the Operation

  • Some critics label the entire Venezuela operation illegal—debated at length ([16:10]).
  • Discussion about the fine line between narcotics traffickers and terrorists in U.S. law. The use of “narco-terrorism” as justification is fraught, lacking clear statutory standing ([17:00]).
    • “There is no definition in law of narco-terrorism. There is only terrorism and narcotics smuggling.” – Seth Mandel ([16:36])

• Implications for U.S. Policy & Dissonance in Drug Wars

  • The cognitive dissonance of “going kinetic” against drugs while many U.S. states legalize marijuana ([20:16]).
  • The operations are regime-backed (by Venezuela, China), which may constitute a state-level threat, further complicating legal and ethical frameworks ([23:03]).
  • The Trump Administration is seen as interpreting all challenges as emergencies justifying executive power—military, economic, or otherwise ([24:03]).

Section 2: Ukraine Negotiations in Moscow

[31:00 – 65:45]

Summary

• Trump Administration’s Strategy & Foreign Policy Contradictions:

  • Notable inconsistency: Trump’s rhetoric of avoiding foreign entanglements vs. kinetic action in Venezuela & pressure against Maduro ([28:26]).
  • “He’s like, I’m going to blow up your boats until you get out of here. That’s, you know, like taking it to another level.” – Seth Mandel ([29:16])

• Jared Kushner & Steve Witkoff’s Moscow Mission:

  • Deal-Making Approach: The administration is attempting to “make a deal” with Russia via real estate and economic integration incentives for Ukraine ([38:50]).
  • Ukraine perceives the U.S. as negotiating against its interests, possibly to Russia’s benefit.
  • The federal government’s own agencies are reportedly out of the loop regarding these negotiations ([39:55]).
  • “Trump and the inner circle… at times are the only ones who know what they’re planning on offering.” – John Podhoretz ([40:17])

• Challenges & Stakes for Ukraine:

  • Any deal would require Ukraine to cede territory—a “travesty” for those regions and a humiliation for Kyiv ([42:29], Abe Greenwald).
  • Ukrainian leaders request security guarantees, NATO membership, and protection from further attacks. Trump is not offering NATO membership, and Russia is presumed to reject any deal that isn’t a sweeping win ([43:10]).

• Critical Quotes & Colorful Analogies:

  • “Steve Witkoff saying the Ukrainians, it’s time to consolidate what they have achieved is, you know, kind of insane.” – John Podhoretz ([45:27])
  • “The only carrot to [Putin] is Ukraine… He wants us to say, take Ukraine, or, you know, we’ll give you a lot of Ukraine without your having to fight for it.” – John Podhoretz ([49:33])
  • The vision offered is derided as late-90s Thomas Friedman–esque, with unrealistic hope in business ties solving geopolitical knots ([48:41]).
  • “It would be… more than a humiliation to Ukraine. It would be a travesty.” – Abe Greenwald ([42:29])

• Europe’s Position & Broader Ramifications:

  • Europeans are frustrated; the U.S. is seen as usurping a European security issue ([41:28]).
  • If America “turns against” Ukraine, global deterrence of aggressors would be fundamentally weakened, echoing years of empty threats against Iran before “Operation Midnight Hammer” ([52:16]).

• Potential Futures & Ideological Tensions:

  • Fantasized scenarios of the U.S. either walking away (“a Putin win” - John, [65:02]) or suddenly reversing to supply Ukraine with weapons ([56:09]).
  • What would MAGA-aligned politicians do if Trump flipped in favor of aiding Ukraine? Would they denounce him or rationalize the about-face? ([56:09]–[63:38])

Section 3: Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Venezuela Strike Media Contradictions:

  • “We now have a complete contradiction. The Washington Post says Pete Hegseth said ‘kill them all.’ New York Times says there’s no evidence… So that is an important corrective.” – John Podhoretz ([05:30])

• On Legal Distinctions:

  • “There is no definition in law of narco-terrorism. There is only terrorism and narcotics smuggling.” – Seth Mandel ([16:36])

• On the Administration’s ‘Emergency Mode’:

  • “…This is part of that. I think just he’s living through an emergency worldview.” – John Podhoretz ([25:14])

• On Trump’s Foreign Policy Flips:

  • “…In practical terms, [Trump] is like more neocon than the neocons.” – Seth Mandel ([29:16])

• On U.S. Negotiations re: Ukraine:

  • “The only carrot to [Putin] is Ukraine… He wants us to say, take Ukraine, or … we’ll give you a lot of Ukraine without your having to fight for it.” – John Podhoretz ([49:33])
  • “The American proposal is not generous enough to Russia and doesn’t make the humiliation of the west potent enough.” – Seth Mandel ([51:57])

• Analogy on Negotiation Mindset:

  • “You don’t think of Trump as a poker player… he’s more like, you know, a blackjack player who triples down on a bet…” – Seth Mandel ([30:41])

• On the Security Dilemma for Ukraine:

  • “If the United States literally turns against Ukraine… I don’t know what’s going to happen to Ukraine.” – John Podhoretz ([50:03])

Additional Recommendations & Cultural Notes

[66:37 – 70:03]

• John Podhoretz recommends Tim Blake Nelson’s new novel Superhero and praises Nelson’s earlier work (City of Blows, film roles).
• Short review of the film Old Henry, an under-the-radar western.

Key Segment Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic / Quote | |---------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:00 | Contradictory news reports over the Venezuela strike | | 10:09 | Podhoretz on media and administration responsibility | | 16:36 | Seth Mandel on U.S. law’s limits: “No definition of narco-terrorism” | | 20:16 | Cognitive dissonance between U.S. drug policy and military action | | 25:14 | “Living through an emergency worldview”—Podhoretz on Trump’s rationale | | 29:16 | “In practical terms… more neocon than the neocons”—on Trump’s foreign policy | | 31:00 | Ukraine negotiations, Kushner & Witkoff in Moscow | | 40:17 | “At times [Trump’s inner circle] are the only ones who know…” | | 42:29 | “Travesty” for Ukraine—Abe Greenwald | | 45:27 | “It’s kind of insane”—Podhoretz on Witkoff’s proposal | | 49:33 | “The only carrot to [Putin] is Ukraine”—Podhoretz | | 52:16 | Parallels to Iran policy and deterrence failure | | 56:09 | Hypothetical: What if Trump aids Ukraine? How does MAGA react? | | 65:02 | “Washing your hands [of Ukraine] is a Putin win.”—Podhoretz | | 66:37 | Book recommendation—Tim Blake Nelson’s Superhero |

Tone & Style

Sharp, analytic, animated, with a tendency to reference historical and cultural analogies. The hosts never shy from criticizing any side and often flag when conjecture enters the discussion, preferring clear-eyed skepticism and legal precision.

For New Listeners

This episode offers a deep-dive analysis into how media narratives, legal justifications, and power politics intersect in the ongoing crises involving both Venezuela and Ukraine. Even if unfamiliar with the specifics, the episode provides historical context, probing questions, and critical attitudes toward all actors, making it an essential listen for those interested in American policy, the politics of information, and real-world ramifications of “emergency” government.