The Commentary Magazine Podcast – "Boered to Death"

Date: March 20, 2026
Host: Jon Podhoretz
Co-Hosts: Seth Mandel, Abe Greenwald
Guest: Eli Lake

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the state of the ongoing Middle East war—particularly the U.S. and Israel’s campaign against Iran—by unpacking media narratives, comparing historical wars, and probing endgame scenarios. The hosts push back against the media’s obsession with "quagmire" talk, drawing analogies from the Boer War to Vietnam, and debate whether true regime change is the only acceptable outcome. The team analyzes shifting regional alliances and reflects on the war’s ripple effects for American credibility, military deterrence, and the challenge of rallying public opinion amid changing civic education.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Media Narratives and the "Quagmire" Label

• Opening Theme: The panel critiques the narrative in mainstream media that paints the current war as an endless, hopeless quagmire reminiscent of Vietnam, Afghanistan, or more obscurely, the Boer War in South Africa.

• Media’s Focus on Fear:

  "Three times in four minutes, either the host read or the correspondent ... featured these words. Increasing activity stoked fears of a wider conflict, rising oil prices, stoked fear of a worldwide economic crisis. Stoked fears, increased fears or provoked fears."
  — Jon Podhoretz (02:27)

• Pushback on Oil Panic: The group notes that while oil prices have risen, they haven’t peaked as high as after Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion.

  "We haven't even reached the summit of the oil price caused by a war shock in this decade..."
  — Jon Podhoretz (04:01)

2. Evaluating Military Progress and Iran's Position

• Strategic Calculations: Abe Greenwald sees the war as progressing well militarily but warns that the Iranians are likely to lash out with all they’ve got, making the conflict unpredictable and risky.

  "This is a bold war, and we should expect the Iranians will do whatever they can to take everyone down with them. So they've alienated all their neighbors. They don't care at this point."
  — Abe Greenwald (05:21)

• Possibility of Regime Change: The team agrees that regime change is becoming the only logical outcome, with skepticism toward any settlement that leaves the Islamic Republic in power.

  "There's no outcome of this war that can't end in regime change that would look like a success for the United States."
  — Jon Podhoretz (07:25)

3. What Would End the War?

• Rejecting "Paper Promises": There’s deep skepticism about any negotiated peace relying on Iranian guarantees, especially around nuclear issues and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

  "None of that should rely on regime promises, regime guarantees, because they are always, always, always fake and meaningless."
  — Eli Lake (08:35)

• Historical Analogies for War Endings:

  "When we have had these surrenders, unconditional surrenders ... those regimes didn't exist anymore."
  — Jon Podhoretz (14:35)

4. Israel’s Evolving Role and Regional Dynamics

• Regional Realignment: The hosts emphasize that Israel, rather than the U.S., is emerging as the new security guarantor for the Middle East due to its military capabilities and successful covert and overt operations.

  "Israel has created the capability to militarily replace America ... as the guarantor of stability and security in the region."
  — Abe Greenwald (27:23)

• Arab States' Stance: Even historically ambivalent states like Qatar are now expelling Iranian diplomats, signaling a deep regional consensus that this truly is a regime change war.

  "Qatar ... just told Iran's entire military attache, you have 24 hours to leave, not just the individual, but the entire office. So that tells me that the neighbors understand it's a regime change war because they're all in."
  — Abe Greenwald (17:45)

• Disconnect Between Diplomatic Gains and Western Public Opinion:

  "All these tangible accomplishments for Israel in terms of actual statecraft come at a time when public opinion of Israel has plummeted among its allies."
  — Abe Greenwald (17:45)

5. Implications for American Power and Global Order

• The Pivot to Asia: With Iran and Iraq “off the table” as threats, the hosts suggest that the U.S. can finally focus attention on China—ironically, giving so-called "restrainers" what they claim to want.

  "The defense intellectuals known as the Restrainers, can get what they want because of this war that they hate. It's kind of an irony."
  — Abe Greenwald (34:14)

• Deterrent Value: The West’s demonstration of technological and military prowess is argued to be a deterrent against future adversaries.

  "We are a generation ahead of them and ... it is a fool's errand to contest with us if that were to happen. That is an enormous practical benefit for the United States."
  — Jon Podhoretz (40:30)

6. The Limits of Idealism and the Crisis in Civic Education

• Can Trump Rally the Nation with Higher Ideals? The panel discusses Matt Continetti’s proposal that Trump needs to embed realpolitik in a moral, idealistic American framework, but Jon Podhoretz and others doubt today’s Americans—largely untaught in positive civic values—would respond.

  "We do not teach civics in which we say, we invented this idea of freedom... American idealism is, we're good. Our system is good. When we do things, they will, and we follow through. It's good. They haven't been taught that."
  — Jon Podhoretz (51:40)

• Modern Messaging:

  "Stephen Chung and the brilliant Meme team at the White House need to do AI videos where Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Susan B. Anthony and Harriet Tubman and Harvey Milk ... make the case ... on the terms of the left, this is a just war."
  — Abe Greenwald (52:48)

• Events Outrun Narratives: Abe believes real-world events—like possible massive protests in Tehran—could force Americans to see regime change as a positive, regardless of current civic education failures.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Historical Parallels:

  "How have we sunk into another Vietnam, into another Afghanistan, into ... the British Boer War in South Africa?"
  — Jon Podhoretz (01:23)

• On Israel’s Regional Integration:

  "Israel now has demonstrated not only that it can dominate the Israeli skies, but it can fly and refuel from Israel ... All of Israel’s neighbors have seemed to be fine giving Israel access to their airspace ..."
  — Abe Greenwald (11:15)

• On the New Middle East Rainbow:

  "You want a rainbow? Okay, the Middle East. ... Zelensky and Bibi are the guys ... standing in front of the UAE and others and saying, not on my watch. It's incredible what's happening."
  — Seth Mandel (38:09)

• On the Limits of Idealistic Messaging:

  "Matt says, we need to go appeal to the better angels of America's nature about this war. And I say, they don't have it anymore. They don't know it."
  — Jon Podhoretz (51:40)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:23] – Opening critique of the "quagmire" narrative, historical analogies
• [05:21] – Assessment of current war progress and escalation risks
• [07:25] – Debate on regime change as the only viable war objective
• [11:15] – Israel’s military innovation and new regional power status
• [17:45] – Repercussions for American credibility and regional alliances
• [29:12] – How the war allows the U.S. to focus on China (“pivot to Asia”)
• [40:30] – The long-term deterrence effects of Western military prowess
• [51:40] – Reflection on civic education and challenges in rallying idealism

Summary Flow and Tone

The episode’s tone is urgent, combative, occasionally sardonic, but ultimately optimistic about the prospects for Western and Israeli success, skeptical of both media doomsaying and the post-modern drift away from clear civic values. The participants blend deep policy analysis with frank skepticism about the usual Washington wisdom and a strong sense that history is turning—if only the pundit class is willing to see it.

Missed the episode? This summary covers all major arguments, historical analogies, and the current state of play—minus the ads and intros.