The Commentary Magazine Podcast — "Cease Or No Cease"

Date: April 9, 2026 | Panelists: John Podhoretz (A), Abe Greenwald (C), Christine Rosen (D), Jonathan Schanzer (B, guest, FDD)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the confusing and fractious state of the so-called "ceasefire" in the Middle East, mainly concerning U.S.–Iran negotiations, Israel’s military actions in Lebanon, and the regional and domestic political implications of these developments. The panel features deep analysis on the strategic dynamics, uncertainty in leadership, negotiation missteps, and how international and domestic narratives are taking shape—particularly around the key players of the Trump administration, Iran, and Israel.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Is it a Ceasefire? (03:14–06:21)

• Theme: The hosts challenge the premise that a real ceasefire has been achieved, emphasizing the chaos and lack of clarity and noting Iran’s escalating demands.
• Jonathan Schanzer: "This is total chaos. Zero clarity... Reports suggest right now that the Islamic Republic... wants the U.S. to not just stop firing, but to also leave every base in the region, remove all sanctions, and essentially allow the Islamic Republic to enrich uranium. So that's insane." (03:35)
• Silver lining: Talks in Islamabad are anticipated, but without a common narrative, more conflict is likely.

Who Runs Iran Right Now? (06:21–09:20)

• Christine Rosen: Asks for clarity on Iran's regime decision-makers.
• Jonathan Schanzer: Cites an FDD insight, "Five Men Now Running Iran," listing:
  • Parliament Speaker Mohammed Golubov (the U.S. interlocutor)
  • Mohamed Bagr Zolgador, head of Supreme National Security Council (IRGC)
  • IRGC commander Ahmed Bahidi
  • Judiciary chief Gholam Hussein Mousseini Ejei
  • Law enforcement chief Ahma Reza Radhan
• These individuals manage regime messaging but may not completely run the country.

The Nature of the Iranian Regime (09:20–16:49)

• John Podhoretz: Pushes back on the notion that the Iranian regime can morph into a mere guerrilla force—it remains a government, with responsibilities and infrastructure.
• Notes that Iran’s psychological and logistical "crumbling" may be slow but inevitable after sustained attacks:
  • "Crumbling can take a very long period of time... the damage the bullet has done in your insides is gonna tell on you." (10:49)
• Key Insight: The extent of Iranian damage might only become clear "when they try to figure out just what the hell do we do now." (12:34)

The Islamabad Negotiations & U.S. Delegation (16:49–22:58)

• Christine Rosen: Questions whether U.S. delegates understand Iran’s domestic fragility amid current unrest.
• Jonathan Schanzer: Voiced skepticism about trusting Pakistan (now essentially a Chinese proxy) as an honest broker:
  • "This is like a wholly owned subsidiary of China that is now brokering this." (18:25)
• Delegation dynamics: JD Vance is inexperienced, Kushner has depth, Witkoff is Trump’s errand man—overall, a concerning lack of expertise.

JD Vance’s Negotiation Debacle (20:52–23:46)

• John Podhoretz: "Someone has put [Vance] at the top of the mountain of a black diamond mountain when he has never skied before." (21:23)
• Suggests possible U.S. miscommunication undermined the deal.

Iranian Negotiation Tactics vs. Trump (22:58–30:06)

• Christine Rosen: Warns that "it's a whole other ball game" with Iranian negotiators, referencing the JCPOA experience.
• Jonathan Schanzer: Describes the "clash of negotiators"—the Islamic Republic and "the guy, the self styled dealmaker" Trump, each known for unpredictable, often self-serving tactics.
• A lack of White House leaks makes media and allies fly blind. Israelis appear better-informed due to difference in disclosure practices.

Domestic U.S. & Political Implications (30:06–36:18)

• Christine Rosen: Points out Trump must deal with both foreign negotiations and U.S. public opinion, which is a new element for him.
• Mixed signals: Keeping military options open is prudent, but contradictory messages around a "10-point plan" cause confusion.
• Schazner: Trump resists outlining goals publicly to avoid political backlash and because "maybe he doesn't know" what the endgame really is.
• Podhoretz: Warns if Iran continues to close the Strait or doesn't comply, "he has to go back to war." (34:06) The core demand is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the precondition for any deal.

Is Peace Possible? (36:18–41:48)

• Abe Greenwald: Now sees a higher likelihood of renewed military engagement due to Iran manipulating conditions.
• Panel is uneasy about Vance and the delegation's competence, but takes some reassurance from the presence of veterans like Kushner and Witkoff.

What Does Trump (and Israel) Really Want? (41:48–47:39)

• Jonathan Schanzer: Outlines Iran’s provocations: blockading Hormuz, firing on neighbors, proxy attacks, demanding nuclear freedom. "This is a test of wills between Trump and the regime."
• Schazner’s Theory: Trump is trying to restore the prewar status quo but with a significantly weakened Iran and Iranian proxies, which favors Israel.

The China Angle & NATO (47:39–50:46)

• Podhoretz and Schanzer both emphasize that China, controlling Pakistan and supplying Iran, does not want Hormuz closed and could stop the standoff if it chose.

Israel, Lebanon, and the Shifting Narrative (50:46–62:22)

Israel’s Strikes in Lebanon

• Israel is conducting major strikes in Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah—timing this while it benefits from a pause against Iran.
• Podhoretz: Criticizes Western and media narratives that blame Israel for any breakdown in the ceasefire.
• Jonathan Schanzer: Notes that many in Lebanon (except Hezbollah) may actually welcome Israel weakening the Iranian-backed group, potentially paving the way for future normalization.

Media Framing and Political Narratives

• Schanzer: Ridicules selective Western narratives about “civilian suffering” but not Israelis forced into shelters.
• Warns the "genocide" accusation narrative is resurfacing, this time led by Turkey, and more international condemnation is likely.

Israel’s Interceptor Stockpiles & Tactical Pause

• Christine Rosen: Asks if Israel is running low on interceptors.
• Schanzer: This is secret, but likely "running on fumes"; three-tier missile defense (Arrow-3, THAAD, Iron Dome) is costly but holding up.
• Podhoretz: A temporary ceasefire may benefit Israel, allowing focus on Hezbollah and resupply.

Israeli Public & Political Consensus

• Israelis overwhelmingly support continued war efforts, especially against Hezbollah. Any domestic political criticism is centered on tactics, not the principle of war itself.
• Podhoretz: "We are on the hawk side here. There is no dove side." (62:22)
• Upcoming Israeli elections will hinge not on seeking peace, but on which candidate prosecutes the war most effectively.

Regional Reactions and Future Scenarios (65:56–74:01)

Arab Gulf States’ Calculus

• Gulf states, notably the UAE and Saudis, have not distanced themselves from U.S. action, indicating a sense that Iran is seriously weakened.
• Podhoretz: "They want us to go the whole way... Keep bombing them back to the stone age. That's what I like to hear." (71:19)
• Schanzer: Anticipates covert operations—especially by Mossad—will increase, likely with Gulf funding, to further destabilize the Iranian regime.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jonathan Schanzer (on Iran’s chaotic bargaining posture):
  "They may also just want to continue to fire at the surrounding Gulf Arab states. So you can just get a sense of what was not achieved in this ceasefire." (04:41)

• John Podhoretz (on the regime’s reality):
  "The regime cannot transition from being a country that runs a country to being a guerrilla force..." (09:20)

• On Vance’s inexperience:
  "This is like someone has put him at the top of a black diamond mountain when he has never skied before and said, get down to the bottom without breaking your leg. And I think maybe he broke his leg." (21:23 – Podhoretz)

• Clash of negotiating styles —
  "You have smart people from the United States... and they come out not wearing pants time and again. And so right now, Trump's getting a taste of this." (27:37 – Schanzer)

• On Israeli public opinion:
  "I have not heard a single serious Israeli political voice that isn't on the far, far, far left even utter a word of criticism of the war itself." (62:22 – Podhoretz)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Ceasefire confusion/chaos: 03:14–06:21
• Iran’s current leaders: 06:51–09:20
• Nature of regime & psychological impact: 09:20–16:49
• Pakistan’s role as broker: 17:59–20:52
• Vance’s negotiation mishaps: 20:52–23:46
• U.S.–Iran negotiation stalemate: 26:10–30:06
• Role of China, NATO, and regional actors: 47:39–50:46
• Media/Western criticism of Israel: 50:46–55:37
• Israeli military and public opinion: 60:02–62:22; 65:56–68:09
• Arab Gulf states’ calculus: 70:22–72:08
• Outlook for covert postwar activity: 72:08–74:01

Recommendations & Closing

• Christine Rosen: Recommends Damian Valdez’s essay "Choke Points Are the True Crossroads of History" at Engelsberg Ideas for a historical perspective on the Strait of Hormuz and strategic maritime chokepoints. (74:04)
• Podcast Conclusion: Emphasis on continued uncertainty, the high stakes of the current situation, and the vitality of reliable analysis in the weeks ahead.

Tone and Language

The conversation is brisk, frank, and laced with irreverence, skepticism, and the panel’s characteristic blend of Jewish humor and hard-nosed realism. There’s deep concern over muddled diplomacy, realpolitik focus on regional power struggles, and a robust defense of Israel’s position.

For more from Jonathan Schanzer: FDD Morning Brief, three times a week, available via Twitter or the FDD site.