The Commentary Magazine Podcast: Deep Dive on Syria
Released December 10, 2024
Introduction
In the December 10, 2024 episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast, host John Podhoretz engages in a comprehensive discussion with senior editor Seth Mandel and Commentary contributing editor Jonathan Schanzer. The trio navigates the tumultuous and rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape of Syria, delving into the collapse of Assad's regime, the rise of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), and the broader implications for Iran, Hezbollah, and regional stability.
Collapse of Assad's Regime
John Podhoretz opens the conversation by addressing the monumental shift in Syrian politics: the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s nearly five-decade-long rule. He remarks on the unexpectedness and speed of the regime’s collapse, highlighting the elimination of a "barbaric regime" as a significant geopolitical event (03:00).
Jonathan Schanzer elaborates on the broader implications, stressing that while the downfall of Assad might seem like a victory, it does not signal a straightforward path to stability. Schanzer notes, “HTS are the primary actors now, and they are not a favorable replacement” (04:15).
Rise of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and Regional Actors
The discussion shifts to HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front. Jonathan Schanzer explains the transformation under Qatar's influence, stating, “They changed their name in 2016 as a facelift promoted by the Qatari regime” (05:10). HTS now controls Syria, but their relationship with Qatar and Turkey raises alarms due to these nations' support for various militant groups, including Hamas and Al Qaeda.
John Podhoretz humorously interjects with a geographic analogy, likening Syria to “Tennessee with a sea attached to it,” underscoring Syria’s strategic but resource-scarce position in the Middle East (07:00). This analogy emphasizes Syria's role as a transit hub rather than a nation of inherent strategic value.
Impact on Iran and Hezbollah
Jonathan Schanzer highlights the significant setbacks faced by Iran and Hezbollah in recent months. He notes, “The Iranian Shiite crescent... is collapsing” and outlines Iran’s weakened state, including diminished air defenses and halted ballistic missile production (06:40). This decline poses a threat to Iran’s ability to project power regionally.
Seth Mandel adds perspective on the strategic loss for Iran, emphasizing that Syria has been a vital transit point for arming Hezbollah: “This has been a crucial transit point for the arming of Hezbollah, primarily” (19:02). The elimination of this corridor results in a “net loss for Hezbollah and Iran,” which Mandel describes as “unequivocally a very positive thing” (22:07).
Potential US and Israeli Responses
A significant portion of the discussion centers on possible actions by the United States and Israel in response to the power vacuum left by Assad’s fall. Podhoretz suggests that the U.S. should consider assisting Israel in targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, questioning why such decisive action hasn't been taken earlier: “The United States should have done this with or without Israel 15 years ago” (32:42).
Jonathan Schanzer expresses skepticism about the current U.S. administration’s willingness and capability to act, stating, “The Biden administration is not really interested” and criticizing the lack of proactive measures (23:15). He warns of the potential for Iran to pursue nuclear capabilities if not swiftly addressed, highlighting the fragility of the current situation.
Seth Mandel reinforces the urgency, arguing that eliminating Iran’s nuclear sites would neutralize their threat: “If you delete that tomorrow, it's all, everything they have is gone” (41:07). Mandel advocates for a combined effort with the U.S. providing essential military support to enable Israel to carry out these strikes effectively.
Geopolitical Implications for the Middle East
The fall of Assad and the rise of HTS have far-reaching consequences for the region. Jonathan Schanzer points out the collapsing Iranian influence and the weakening of Russian presence in Syria, noting, “Russia's... Tartus base... nobody there” (34:42). This shift diminishes Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East and exposes the shortcomings of Russian military hardware, as evidenced by the failure of the S300 air defense systems.
Podhoretz and Mandel discuss the potential for further normalization between Israel and other Middle Eastern nations in light of Iran's decline. Mandel observes, “Israel's victories could lead to additional normalization agreements,” suggesting a possible realignment of regional alliances (19:02).
Biden vs. Trump Administration: Leadership and Strategy
A critical theme throughout the episode is the contrast between the Biden and Trump administrations' foreign policies. Podhoretz is notably critical of the Biden administration’s perceived indecisiveness and lack of strategic vision, especially regarding Iran and the Middle East.
Jonathan Schanzer echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the administration’s failure to grasp the gravity of the situation: “We've just witnessed history... we are blind in Syria in terms of intelligence” (24:08). He advocates for a more aggressive stance akin to what Trump might have pursued, including immediate action against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Seth Mandel adds that the upcoming Trump administration could seize the "once in a century opportunity" to decisively weaken Iran and reshape the Middle East's geopolitical landscape: “This is a once in a millennium type of opportunity” (43:46).
Final Reflections and Conclusion
As the episode draws to a close, Podhoretz underscores the unprecedented nature of the recent developments in Syria and the Middle East. He reflects on the rapid succession of events that led to Assad’s fall and the potential for significant geopolitical shifts, urging listeners to remain vigilant: “We're going to be vigilant and Jonathan Schanzer is going to be here to keep us vigilant” (56:56).
Seth Mandel offers a symbolic parallel to Hanukkah, emphasizing the transition from darkness to light as a metaphor for the current geopolitical changes: “It's a very Jewish idea to talk about this as... going from darkness to light” (55:47). This sentiment encapsulates the hope for a more stable and secure Middle East, free from the oppressive regimes and militant groups that have long plagued the region.
Notable Quotes
- Jonathan Schanzer (06:40): “The Iranians are having a very bad, no good year and next year is probably going to get worse.”
- John Podhoretz (32:25): “What does Frankie Five Angels say to Michael when they're in the hotel room? Let's hit him while we have the muscle.”
- Seth Mandel (41:07): “If you delete that tomorrow, it's all, everything they have is gone. They can't hit anybody.”
- Jonathan Schanzer (43:40): “The Biden administration... do we see any action in the next 41 days?”
- Seth Mandel (55:47): “It's a very Jewish idea to talk about this as... going from darkness to light.”
Conclusion
The December 10 episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast provides an incisive analysis of Syria’s collapse and its reverberations across the Middle East. Through expert insights from Seth Mandel and Jonathan Schanzer, host John Podhoretz underscores the critical juncture at which the region stands. The discussions emphasize the need for decisive action to prevent further instability and highlight the stark contrasts in leadership approaches between the Biden and incoming Trump administrations. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the podcast calls for continued vigilance and strategic foresight to navigate the complexities of a post-Assad Syria.