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- [00:00]
John Podhoretz
She's made up her mind to live pretty smart Learn to budget responsibly Right from the start she spends a little less Inputs more into savings Keeps her blood pressure low and credit score raises she's cutting debt right out of her life she tracks her cash flow on.
- [00:22]
Abe Greenwald
Her spreadsheet at night Boring money moves.
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John Podhoretz
Make kinda lame songs but they sound pretty sweet to your wallet brilliantly boring since 1865.
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Abe Greenwald
Hope for the best Expect.
- [00:39]
John Podhoretz
The worst Some preach and pain Some die of thirst the way of knowing which way it's going Hope for the best Expect the worst Hope for the best welcome to the Commentary Magazine daily podcast. Today is Wednesday, June 18, 2025. I'm John Pot Horiz, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me, as always, Executive Editor Abe Greenwald. Hi Abe.
- [01:07]
Matthew Continetti
Hi John.
- [01:08]
John Podhoretz
And Washington Commentary columnist and Director of Domestic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Matthew Continetti. Hi Matt.
- [01:15]
Abe Greenwald
Hi John.
- [01:16]
John Podhoretz
We closed our July August issue and a lot to talk about in relation to this issue which will be up today and tomorrow on our on our website. And we'll get to the war with Iran in a little bit, but I thought maybe we could start and this will integrate some of the war in Iran with Matt's column in the issue which is about the radical left and its liberal camp followers inside the Democratic Party. So because I think we're facing an election in a week here in New York, six days actually in which the the question of the how implicated Democratic voters and the Democratic Party are in general with the furtherance of noxious, anti Semitic, radical economic and in general destructive views, how much the Democratic Party as a whole or its other elected officials or its representative offices are advancing the interests of people who hate America and hate Israel, hate capitalism and are I think a patently destructive force.
- [02:32]
Abe Greenwald
Well, we just see it time and again that when the radical left breaks laws, causes civil unrest, commits acts of violence, mainstream Democratic politicians and liberal fellow travelers in the media and in intellectual circles, excuse it, make apologies for it, say it's a distraction. I was most recently reminded about this during the LA riots of just the last week. Seems like a decade ago was it. Can you imagine?
- [03:04]
John Podhoretz
That is amazing. Like we're so moved like eons. It's like okay, there was this Narskite in la. You know what something world monumentally historic is happening in the Middle east that just it's as though but there was.
- [03:18]
Abe Greenwald
Also happened there was also violence at some of the no Kings protests which was only Saturday, just only last Saturday. And you know, including in Portland which has long been a site of radical left terrorism. Los Angeles, Utah, Philadelphia, shooting, Philadelphia. So this is just seems a. To be a constant presence on the left. And I'm always struck by how rather than drawing a very severe line against the violence, rather than doing everything that's necessary to quell the violence, mainstream Democrats tend to say, well, you know, it's just a way of letting off steam, or we have to understand the root causes behind the violence. Or, you know, Donald Trump ordering the National Guard to Los Angeles two weeks ago was an act of tyranny. And a district judge in San Francisco who is the brother of a former Supreme Court justice, has more authority over the National Guard than the President of the United States. And so this piece in our new issue is just cataloging this phenomenon which really stretches back to the 1960s when you first saw this kind of the inability of the mainstream liberal Democrats to do anything about the antinomian left in their ranks.
- [04:39]
John Podhoretz
Okay, let's talk about this in relation to elected officials, not just sort of radical chic figures, you know, sort of Leonard Bernstein in 1970 and people now who are, you know, cosplaying in these circumstances. I mean, there are five democratically elected officials who have been arrested or held or held by law enforcement in the last two months from major blue centers. Okay. We have, of course, the detaining of Alex Padilla, the senator from California, who came screaming into a Kristi Noem press conference. And the Secret Service or her guard, you know, like, wisely and totally according to protocol, you know, got him out of the room and subdued him because they didn't know who he was, even though he said he was Senator Alex Padilla. I mean, I could say I'm Senator Alex Padilla. We have Representative Lamonica McIver from New Jersey, who pushed an immigration officer at an ICE demonstration that also involved Mayor Ross Baraka of Newark, who was arrested at the same demonstration. Remember Hannah Dugan, the Milwaukee County Circuit Judge who helped spirit somebody away from ICE through a side door in the Milwaukee County Courthouse. And then yesterday, Brad Lander, very left wing, the New York City Comptroller, who would be the most left wing candidate in the race were it not for the guy we're about to talk about. Zoram Mamdani basically showed up again at an ICE proceeding, interfered with officers and got himself arrested solely, I believe, so that he could get the photograph of himself in ICE custody. So a guy running for mayor of New York City who doesn't really have a chance, but nonetheless, he showed up to get arrested while running, while with a week to go in a race that maybe he delusionally thinks he can somehow win or like explode outward because of an event like this. They think this is good for them politically. They think that this is throwing red meat to their people and that this is righteous because it's all against ice.
- [07:07]
Abe Greenwald
And I think that you have to think about what the object of the protest is in their imaginations. They are likening themselves to the civil rights movement of the 1950s, where civil disobedience, non violent demonstration was a key to highlighting the issue of racial segregation in the South. These politicians are purposefully getting themselves arrested or aiding and abetting illegal immigrants. Illegal immigrants. There's no equal rights issue here. The distinction is between citizen and noncitizen. And I think most people look at this phenomenon and say, what, what are you doing? I mean, obviously it's a stunt, but the purpose of the stunt seems so at odds with a common sense understanding of the rule of law that I only, I think it's only digging the Democrats hole deeper.
- [08:07]
Matthew Continetti
But they really are only interested in the style. They, they, they have taken the pay a page from the protesters and said, oh, this is, this is now effective politics. That's what we need to be doing. We need to be more like them. And I think they would do it over almost any issue. Now, you know, I don't, I don't.
- [08:26]
Abe Greenwald
I think I just.
- [08:27]
Matthew Continetti
I agree. The issue is a loser.
- [08:29]
Abe Greenwald
The illegal immigrant. Think about Senator Van Hollen's campaign for Maryland man, Albergo Garcia, which ended as soon as we found out that he, Abrego Garcia had a question criminal past.
- [08:44]
John Podhoretz
As the greatest and was arrested upon being. Upon landing in the United States after mistaken detention. Now in charge for human trafficking in the dock.
- [08:53]
Abe Greenwald
For human trafficking. Suddenly Senator Van Hollen's nowhere to be seen.
- [08:57]
John Podhoretz
Yeah. I mean, meaning just to make clear what this means is that this, this guy was mistakenly, you know, mistakenly removed to El Salvador and under, you know, extreme duress from Judge Boasberg. And whatever has been returned was a coyote. I mean, that the accusation is that he wasn't just an illegal himself, that he was, he was that which was illegal in other men. I mean, that he was spiriting people across the border as part of his profession. So I mean, the manifold ironies there are obviously manifold.
- [09:35]
Abe Greenwald
And then you think about Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, really heightening state federal tensions. Why? Because he wants Los Angeles and his entire state to remain a sanctuary for illegal immigration. And Mayor Karen Bass of L. A saying repeatedly that the only way the disorder would stop in Los Angeles is if Trump removed the National Guard and ended the ICE raids. I just, I look at the Democratic Party as the wing of the Democratic Party that's most visible now. It seems to me that it's a one issue party and the issue is somehow protecting a status quo that the public dislikes and which I think is ultimately harmful to the country. You know, I mean, I beat my head against the wall again and again. If the Democrats wanted to put out the flames that create Trumpism, the simplest solution is to get tough on immigration and they cannot do it.
- [10:44]
John Podhoretz
But. Okay, so let's talk about their incentives for a second. I'm sorry, their incentives are money. I mean, aside from that, they believe, let us take it as a given, that these officials believe that Trump is a authoritarian moving to totalitarianism, that ICE is bad, that it's a, that it basically is a kind of thuggish praetorian.
- [11:12]
Abe Greenwald
Guard that is, compare it to Nazis all the time now.
- [11:15]
John Podhoretz
So let's say. So let's do them the courtesy of taking them seriously and saying that they believe what they say they believe. So there is that. And we should judge them as we do. If that's something that you think is acceptable, vote for them or accept their. And if you, if you don't, and from what we can tell most Americans don't, they will reap the whirlwind, as Matt, as you suggest they might in the right circumstances. I mean, I don't think that Ross Baraka, Newark, is going to get crosswise of his voters for being a radical who doesn't like law enforcement. But. Okay, so. But we'll do them the credit. There are all these other incentives, right, aside from fame, the incredibly quick ability you have now to be able to jump on something and make money, right? A photograph of Brad Lander be in custody saying whatever it is he's going to say, he can put out a targeted text with the picture of him in custody and all that, and maybe he can raise a million dollars in a day from the, you know, from the sort of the, whatever the version of the left wing version of the Tea Party is, or the people who are giving Zoran Mamdani all this money. Same with Alex Fidia, totally obscure, though. He is the senior senator from California, among the most obscure people in Congress. Just made himself famous and now, you know, if he is able to capitalize on what he did, can move into a more powerful position in his party and of course, Ray. And, and the way you do that is to raise money at a fast clip and then distribute it to people so that you're a power player behind the scenes. So, so, and, and of course the fact that there is this entire media that isn't just, you know, sort of the liberal mainstream media, but this entire left wing media ecosystem. Midas Touch, you know, the, all these fields, supposedly there's no, you know, there's no liberal alternative to Joe Rogan. There's billions of liberal alternatives to Joe Rogan. Taken adding them up together, they're more than Joe Rogan. And you can, you can become famous in those circles and push your name forward and push your causes forward. So they have all the, all incentives to behave this way to, to behave lawlessly and then claim that what they are doing is upholding a higher law and that they are actually acting against a lawless administration. And no disincent, as far as I can tell, unless they face consequences at the ballot box. What is the disincentive? Except for the unpleasantness of being manhandled by, you know, by a, by a cop, which I, I'm not saying is fun. Brad Lander didn't look like he was having fun, nor did Alex Padilla when he was on the floor being handcuffed behind his back. But that's 30 seconds of unpleasantness for a lifetime of, you know, being the answer to a trivia question.
- [14:15]
Abe Greenwald
Well, maybe not a lifetime, but, well, you know, Israel kind of stepped on Alex Padilla's parade.
- [14:20]
John Podhoretz
Oh, that's true. Right.
- [14:20]
Abe Greenwald
Very amusing to me.
- [14:22]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [14:22]
Abe Greenwald
No, there is no disincentive that the problem is for the national Democratic brand. And like you say, the mayor of Newark is probably not going to suffer many consequences for his lawlessness. But a moderate Democrat trying to beat a senator in, say, Michigan, in a Senate race in Michigan next year, or a House member running for districts in the battlegrounds. Not in suburban New York. Right. Not the Bronx or Queens. They might suffer. And so I think it's interesting. We're going to talk about New York in a second, but last night the Democrats had their primary for Virginia. It was Virginia primary day. And other than Abigail Spanberger, who had the nomination for Virginia governor pretty much sewn up a year ago, the down ballot Democrats that the party nominated are progressive radicals, progressive activists, and you look at some of their views and I, I think that there's opportunities down ballot for Republican candidates. Even though the Republican Party in Virginia is in somewhat of a state of turmoil as Glenn Youngkin looks for the exit.
- [15:42]
John Podhoretz
So.
- [15:43]
Abe Greenwald
Right. They don't. They're not paying any price now, the individuals who are performing these acts of, you know, faux heroism, aiding illegal immigrants. But I do think it only will hurt the Democratic Party's reputation next year.
- [16:00]
John Podhoretz
Well, so we have a nationalized politics. So as a result, that, that's the point here, which is that if you are running, you know, in Kansas or, you know, a state that has a stronger Democratic Party than you would expect, given its geographical position and its general tenor, or Michigan or a place like that, Michigan, of course, very purple, right. Goes, goes, you know, Trump, Biden, Trump. Something that happens in Newark, New Jersey, or in, or in a courthouse in New York City. It's as though it happened in your district. And that's new. That's new. Now, it's not entirely new because the largest issues, right, meaning crime or defense policy or things like that, have always been national issues. And the Democratic Party has, for the last 60 years, been uncomfortably close at various controversial points to being weak on crime and weak on defense. But you didn't have specific images of specific politicians who can stand in for the whole. And that's what, you know, again, the breast of Brad Lander, the scene with Padilla, all of that not only activates Democrats and gets them money, it activates Republicans, reminds, it toughens the Republican spying on some of these issues. Like if you're, if you're sort of like a non Trump Republican or you voted for him with deep reservations in 2024 or whatever. Watching what's gone on in the last six months is not exactly the sort of thing that's going to incline you, despite the Qatari plane, despite the, you know, what appears to be the grifting with the, with the coin and the phone and whatever. Not going to incline you to say, I'm moving over to those guys. Like, you know, any effort to persuade persuadable voters, in my view, is being lost by the embrace of the most radical sentiments. The great strength against Trump in 2018 and in 2020 was, he's crazy. They're all crazy. We're at least not crazy. And now they look marginally crazier than Republicans do. I mean, you know, seeing part of.
- [18:30]
Matthew Continetti
The stunt, part of the stunt in the, in these cases is to try to get Republicans to look crazy, right? Is to invite the crackdown. That's, that's some sort of overreach, but it doesn't come off that way.
- [18:44]
John Podhoretz
So I don't think voters look at ICE agents and say, well, they're just Republican. You know, that's, that's, that's Ted Cruz in a uniform or, you know, or that's Marjorie Taylor Greene in the uniform. That's what they think. But that's not what an ordinary person. That's, that's a, that's a, that's a analogy or a metaphor that the ordinary person would not, would not go to.
- [19:06]
Abe Greenwald
I mean, who have the Democrats put forward in recent months? We've remarked before on the podcast, the most visible Democrats are Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Bernie Sanders. We mentioned Van Hollen, we mentioned Padilla. We have Jim Carville giving an interview, blaming the Jews for problems in the Middle east and in the Democratic Party. And now we have the flavor of the month. Zoran Mamdani coming in second in most polls in the New York mayoral race. A surge of support over this past several weeks. And what was he saying just the other day on the Bulwark podcast? He refused to distance himself from the slogan globalized Intifada. That's not a good look. Not a good look.
- [19:58]
John Podhoretz
Friends, let's talk about Mamdani, because, of course, he's not an important figure. He's only an important figure if he wins, and he's maybe a suggestive figure if he comes close. The truth is that all of the relevant political data show that he's nowhere near winning. There have been multiple polls. It's a complicated race because it's ranked choice voting. But Andrew Cuomo, deeply problematic to put it mildly, figure on his own, is up anywhere from eight to 16 points in the first balloting, where if you don't get over 50%, you then go through this whole process of ranked choice that I won't even describe. But every poll in the end has Cuomo up over 50% in the 10th. By the time the ranked choice balloting ends, Mamdani is nowhere near winning. The latest poll, which is Marist, which is in the last couple of days, shows Cuomo winning by 12 at the end and being up by like 8 at the beginning. So Mamdani is not. Is. It is in all, all likelihood suggests that Mandani is not going to prevail here and that what he has done is consolidate 30% or 35% of the Democratic primary vote in, in New York City. But he's also become, like, nationally famous. And he's very able, he's very smart. He's got. Got weird similarities to people to judge in the sense that he's young, you know, he's kind of vibrant. He's extremely articulate. He's a good speaker. Unlike Pete Buttigieg. He doesn't, you know, like Don Don and off different clothing to pretend to be different people. He is a radical leftist running on a communist. And I'm not saying that, I'm saying that descriptively. I'm not saying that, you know, because I don't like communists, which I don't. And try to be, you know, red baiting. He wants the nationalization of groceries. He wants the city to run grocery stores and set prices. He wants to free. He wants the mayor to have the power to freeze rents. So he's basically taking control of the private economy for his own political gain. He wants to turn police officers into social workers. He wants to house homeless people in subway stations. He wants to house homeless people in subway stations and give them social services. Six million people ride the subway in New York City. It is the main arti. It is the main way that people in New York City get around. And he wants to increase the presence of disorder, decay, criminality and psychosis as people go about their daily business. Like that is his agenda. That's, it's naked, it's open. And then he opens his mouth to talk about foreign policy.
- [22:56]
Abe Greenwald
Right. He's fixated on Israel.
- [22:58]
John Podhoretz
Yeah. So my daughter, so my 18 year old daughter said to me, why are we even talking about Israel in the New York mayoral election? I said, well, you know, that's a historical artifact. Like, first of all, New York mayors will always talk about foreign policy because the UN's here, it's the largest city in the country. It has more immigrants live in New York than live anywhere else. And you know, 50, 60, 70 years ago, New York City was 32% Jewish. It is no longer. It's now like 12% or 13% Jewish, but it was 30% Jewish. So the mayor of New York was the mayor of the largest single population of Jews in the world until Israel lapped it finally. And so Israel was a concern too, in New York City politics and that we're still talking about Israel, but why does Oran Mamdani talk about Israel as opposed to saying, I'm the mayor of New York, I only want to be the mayor of New York, I only want to talk about the mayoralty of New York. He doesn't only want to talk about the mayoralty of New York because he sees no distinction between having a state owned grocery store and liberating Gaza from the evil, you know, and supporting Hamas. And he's right. What's more, it's True, he's correct. Those two agendas are identical. They are about overthrowing our traditions, overthrowing our basic belief in private property and democratic choice and all of that. And so, and so he's actually doing us a favor in some sense by putting himself on the ballot in this way. Because if he loses and he loses substantially, which may happen, like either he's got momentum and he's going to shock everyone and do and win, or he may do worse than it appears that he is doing. When all is said and done, there's a very, very serious negative campaign going on here locally against him. Not about Israel, although there's a lot of stuff about Israel and mailers and things like that. But it's about how he wants to fund the police and he wants to put the homeless in the subways. And is that something you want? And that's something that will resonate with voters who start vote who started voting yesterday.
- [25:06]
Matthew Continetti
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- [26:13]
John Podhoretz
Hey, it's Sean here. I'm happy today to talk to you about our new advertiser Shopify. Because we have been using Shopify here at Commentary to help distribute, sell and manage our merch for the Commentary podcast for a couple of years now. And they are now here and want us to tell you about how you can use them to get right, get things the way you need them to make your business work with your podcast or whatever business you may have. Because Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in the US from household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands just getting started, you can get started with your own design studio inside Shopify. With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store to match your brand style, accelerate your content creation. Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions, page headlines, and even enhance your product photography. You can get your word out like you have a marketing team behind you. Easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling. And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. So turn your big business idea into Kaching. With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com commentary that's shopify.com commentary shopify.com commentary Speaking of support for Israel and its place in American politics, we are day five or day six into the Israeli operation against Iran and things have gone quiet in Trump circles. Having been very dramatic two days ago with the departure from the G7. Was it two days ago? Tell me it wasn't yesterday.
- [28:33]
Abe Greenwald
Well, Trump arrived back in D.C. yesterday morning, Tuesday morning he from Canada, several meetings with his national security team.
- [28:41]
John Podhoretz
Right.
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Abe Greenwald
He talked to Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday. And then in a series of posts to Truth Social, Trump said America first includes opposing Iran's having the bomb. He said that we very important we now have complete control of Iranian airspace. He then said that we know exactly where the Ayatollah Khomeini Khamenei is, but we have, we have decided not to take him out. Parentheses, kill exclamation point, close parentheses him at this point. And then he said in a final post yesterday afternoon in all caps with exclamation points, unconditional surrender. So everyone at that point yesterday afternoon, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, we were, we were wondering well what's going to happen. We, we were receiving reports throughout the day of mil of US Military assets traveling to the Middle east. And then around 9 o' clock last night, Trump posted again with the huge news that construction has started on the 100 foot flagpoles that he is installing.
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John Podhoretz
Not one, not one flag pole. He has said two 100 foot flag poles.
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Abe Greenwald
Yeah, I've been wondering actually he earlier and they're not going to rust. March or April. He yeah, he announced that he is planning to do this and I was wondering where they were. Yes, they are non rusting.
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John Podhoretz
Yeah, they are non. They will not rust.
- [30:12]
Abe Greenwald
And the rope is Inside. The rope is inside.
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John Podhoretz
Thanks for your attention to this matter.
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Abe Greenwald
So that's where we stand. And his posts this morning have been about low income wage increases and some good poll numbers that he's receiving. So that's Trump's side. And just to close out, we did receive a response this morning from Ayatollah Khamenei where he said, of course, the Iranian revolutionary regime is not going to surrender to Trump's demands. And if the United States becomes involved, the Iran will launch a regional war. And answering Trump's demand with another threat.
- [30:51]
John Podhoretz
You know, it is funny, I just.
- [30:53]
Matthew Continetti
Want to say about those truths. So people were kind of criticizing Trump for the we, partner. I took it as a completely heartening sign that in one way, shape or form, he is now completely bought in to what Israel is doing.
- [31:10]
John Podhoretz
Well, that's why they're criticizing it, because they don't want him to buy in.
- [31:14]
Matthew Continetti
But there was also this, like, what.
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John Podhoretz
Do you mean we.
- [31:16]
Matthew Continetti
You had nothing to do with it kind of thing.
- [31:18]
John Podhoretz
Oh, that, yeah. Well, that's just like, I hate you, so you sting. Okay. But I mean, there is a very interesting sort of nascent alliance growing on the anti war front. And it is, you know, sort of like all the usual suspects on all sides, all of whom loathe each other, kind of having a moment of like, hey, you're you, you hate you, you don't, you don't like this either. Maybe we can, you know, sort of like, it's like when, you know, Loki joins the Avengers or something. You know, it's like, maybe we can work together this one time to prevent this terrible thing from happening. I'm interested by the fact that the, the moral and spiritual geopolitics of this moment between Israel and the United States are not entirely in the same place. And I'll explain it to you in my view. Thus, I assume that Israel did not decide to launch this effort without a plan or an idea about how it would take out Fordow, the 300 foot deep buried facility that is the centerpiece of the Iranian nuclear program. Like just going on and blowing up things and blowing up things on the surface of Fordow and all that, that They've been spending 20 years on this plan and that they have a plan to deal with for now. Because why would they go now now? Maybe they went now because they really. Because the intelligence really did say that Iran was going to break out and could break out in a week or two weeks and they had to do whatever they could to degrade the program. However they could. But let me just say that I think that it's likely and given apparently the wildly successful use of AI as a. As a planning, timing and strategic tool, which is some of the stuff that we're hearing about, that the sequencing of everything that went on in the last week was aided immeasurably by machine learning efforts that helped create the scenarios. That said, if you do this, then you should do this, then you can do that, then you do this, and here's, here's what happens if you do X. It's like the first positive thing I've heard about AI ever, practically. So I'm very interested in that. But they have a plan. It's just that it's laborious and will take a long time and will put Israelis at more risk of Iranian counter strikes and all that. Right. There's an argument to be made that Israel should not want the Americans to strike, that it should entirely be an Israeli operation. That the vindication of Zionism, as I wrote earlier this week, that is represented by Israel, just as it did with the Syrian reactor in 2007. And here, that if it can do this to its greatest enemy on its own, that the statement to the world and to world history that the Jewish state is here forever, can defend itself against its worst threats, and that you better not mess with it, is made unambiguously and with sheer clarity. And the idea that Israel is a client, say the US does what the US Wants and gets all this money from the US and therefore can't function, that the US Is defeated forever. And so in some sense, spiritually, it would be better for Israel to do this alone.
- [34:53]
Abe Greenwald
Look, I think there's a lot to that case. I would only say this is about more than Israel.
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John Podhoretz
That's where I was going next. Go ahead.
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Abe Greenwald
You know, every American president since the Iranian nuclear program was discovered, going back to George W. Bush, has opposed a nuclear Iran. The Democrats have tried diplomacy. The Republicans have tried diplomacy to varying degrees. Trump just tried diplomacy for 60 days. But all were clear that Iran could not have a nuclear weapon because Iran is the world's great, greatest state sponsor of terror. Iran has killed Americans. I don't understand why this is not more present in our discussion on the current moment.
- [35:47]
John Podhoretz
Ilhan Omar yesterday said Iran hasn't killed any. Why are we in this? Iran hasn't killed a thousand Americans and.
- [35:54]
Abe Greenwald
Thousands of wounded Americans who were wounded fighting for America and for the free Iraq and were targets of Iranian militias and Iranian weapons. So Iran, Iran's proxies have bombed US Military facilities, they have assassinated American officials, they have kidnapped Americans, they have plotted against the President of the United States and a National Security Advisor and a National Security advisor. This is Secretary of State and Under Secretary. Secretary of State. Yeah, they, they are clearly behind spiritually, if not, I think, operationally, the attempts on Salman Rushdie's life. Right.
- [36:39]
John Podhoretz
But this is, this is the Houthis. And, and of course, how many people have died in the Houthi war.
- [36:45]
Abe Greenwald
And they support, and they support the Hamas genocide who continue to hold hostages.
- [36:52]
John Podhoretz
And murdered and murdered Poland and murdered Americans in the tunnels and have their bodies.
- [36:59]
Abe Greenwald
This regime is an American problem just as much as it's an Israeli problem. Now, for Israel, the stakes are existential and that's why Netanyahu acted. But for America to join in the fight is absolutely just. Moreover, it would send a signal to the world that one, America is prepared to re establish military deterrence. Deterrence that collapsed with the US Presence in Afghanistan under Joe Biden and has had terrible consequences for the world ever since. So Russia and China would notice, if.
- [37:38]
John Podhoretz
We got North Korea would notice, North.
- [37:39]
Abe Greenwald
Korea, everyone would notice. Two, you know, it's good for the world, especially for the Arab states, especially for the jihadists, to know that there is no daylight between the United States and Israel and that we remain the closest of allies and that both of us fight for civilization, for Western civilization. So for all these reasons, I think that the case for American involvement has grown since the beginning of the operation. And I would just again repeat, this is not a war for regime change. Regime change may be a consequence of the war, but the goal of the war is to destroy Iran's nuclear program. And for that, America does not need to send 100,000 troops to the Middle East. For that, America does not have to have this occupation plan. All America needs to do is an air campaign against what the assets that we know, and I think an ancillary campaign to erode and continue to degrade the Iranian military assets in the region. For example, the Iranian navy, it might be a nice secondary target if America comes involved, that in addition to no longer having an air force, Iran no longer has a navy.
- [39:06]
John Podhoretz
So the case I was going to make is similar to yours, that it would be better for Israel. There are arguments that it would be best for Israel's goals if it has the capacity to take out for it out to do that without the United States and for the Jewish people and the future of the Jewish people. And you're making the case that it would actually Be better for America to, for it to be involved. And you've made all these arguments. And I would make one just simple overarching case, which is we have the most powerful military in the world. We have developed these capabilities that we do not use, like the bunker buster bomb that would take out for that. There is some question in the minds of people in the world that gets to your point about deterrence, about American.
- [40:04]
Abe Greenwald
Will steadfastness.
- [40:06]
John Podhoretz
Right. And that in other words, like we can fly a plane from Whitman Air Force Base, refuel it in the air.
- [40:13]
Abe Greenwald
30 hour round trip.
- [40:14]
John Podhoretz
30 hour round trip, refuel it twice in the air 30,000ft. There's no defense against it because it's way too high. Even if Iran had air defenses, it could not reach the bomber that would drop the bunker buster bomb on Ford Owl, drop the bomb, turn around, refuel twice in the air and land and do it again and do it three or four times and drop four of those bombs. And it's a matter of two days and four bombs. Now people I love, people I have great respect for who talk about the problems of Congress's inability and unwillingness to play its proper a role in American politics, are saying there should be a declaration of war. We never declare war anymore and it's bad and we should. And da, da, da, da, da. Right, okay. This isn't a war. That's the point. Are we using weapons of war? Yes, but you know, a gun is a weapon of war also. And when a cop, if a cop has to use his gun, we don't say we need a congressional declaration of war for a cop to use his gun. This is a relatively bloodless operation, by the way. Bloodless even in the sense that if you're in a, if you're, if you're a sensible Iranian person working at Fordow, you should get in the elevator, go up to the surface and run like hell because they're coming for you. It's not like you don't have a lot of advance warning that this is not a safe place to be this week. So even hitting Fordow is not about hitting the people who work at. For now, you know, like the extras and the, you know, in a James Bond, one of those James Bond bunkers, they could get out. But we're not doing it to kill anybody. That's so important.
- [42:06]
Abe Greenwald
The difference in reaction to Operation Lion Rising or Rising Lion Rising Lion. I always get it backward.
- [42:16]
John Podhoretz
Yeah.
- [42:17]
Abe Greenwald
And the difference to, and the, the reaction to the war in Gaza is so extraordinary. As you said, we're almost a week in, right? We're six days in and we've had a few totally toothless statements from Arab capitals. We've had Sergey Lavrov, that evil, you know, troll, say this is very bad, Israel should stop and the United States should be involved. We had China say we believe in state sovereignty, but that's it. Nothing. The un, the UN is silent on this. The era, the so called Arab street, completely quiet. The media even it's fascinating. The media continues to broadcast lies about the Gaza humanitarian program and what is going on in the ground in Gaza. But with it, they just seem stunned. There is a slight turn I've noticed in the British press in particular, which of course has that kind of British arch anti Semitism always infused in it. Talk about how today in the ft. Well, BB knows how to start wars but not to finish them. I just want to shake the reporter with my hands and say, who started the war?
- [43:47]
John Podhoretz
Who started the war?
- [43:49]
Abe Greenwald
Who started the war on October 7th? Who started the war with Iran? Who shot the first missiles against Israel? It was Iran last spring.
- [44:00]
John Podhoretz
Who started the war?
- [44:02]
Abe Greenwald
It's the Ayatollah who started this war. He does not know how to finish it. And it's going to end whether America gets involved or not with him dead.
- [44:12]
John Podhoretz
Okay, so, right. Talk about deterrence quickly. Wars are a failure of deterrence. Meaning if someone goes to war against you, it's because he's not deterred from going to war against you by the idea that the cost of going to war against you is higher would be too high to pay. That's deterrence. The reason that we can drop bombs on Ford without a congressional declaration of war, and the reason that this is not a war is that we are doing it to prevent war, to reestablish deterrence. So that another country somewhere in the world that says, you know, we can get the whip hand on the west if we just get ourselves a nuclear weapon and say we're going to invade. If we're, you know, if we're Venezuela and we say we want to invade Guyana because it has a lot of rare earth minerals and we have a nuclear weapon, no one's going to screw with us because we, we have a nuclear weapon. We say go away. You know, that's it. We've now shown that we are willing with a flick of our fingers to fly a plane from Whitman Air Force Base, refuel it in the air, drop a giant bomb on whatever your ambition is, and then fly home. The only country on earth that has done this in the last 40 years to establish deterrence and to prevent break nuclear breakouts. Is Israel on Ocira and on Syria, 1981 and 2007? We would be the third. We would be the second. It would be the third such thing. What do we see? Do we see nuclear programs all over the place on earth? No. Would the failure at this point not to do for now indicate that the United States was not willing to take the final step and say no nuclear proliferation anywhere from any country that is not already nuclear Now? I fear that it would be once that, once this, we started walking down this road. The world needs America to do for now. We need it to reestablish deterrence and to make it clear to people that we should be listened to when we say don't, as opposed to Joe Biden saying don't to the Russians and the Russians saying, oh no, do, don't. That's what you're saying to us. We want to take Ukraine. What are you going to do about it, you feeble old senile man?
- [46:42]
Abe Greenwald
There's only one emendation to your idea and that is if the Iranians did say, you know what, we've had enough. Israel got us with our pants down. The nuclear program has been set back. We are prepared to open up for now. We are prepared to disarm and destroy the centrifuges in cooperation with the iaea. They could do that in a fantasy world.
- [47:18]
John Podhoretz
Yeah.
- [47:19]
Abe Greenwald
And if they did do that, that actually would be a triumph, of course, of diplomacy. Right? That would be. Well, Trump and Bibi acted in this concert, as we've discussed. We're not sure, you know, how strategic or planned this was, but the fact that Trump had maximum pressure then this opening for two months, then the two month window closed and Israel acted. And if Iran finally said, you know what, fine, the survival of our regime is more important to us than the nuclear program. Of course the survival of the regime is tied to the nuclear program.
- [47:57]
John Podhoretz
But that's why the fantasy.
- [47:59]
Abe Greenwald
That's why this is a fantasy. Yeah, but you know, it's not out.
- [48:03]
John Podhoretz
Of the realm of possibility, not at all.
- [48:04]
Abe Greenwald
And however, I think the window for that possibility is closing. And I think that, you know, from that unconditional surrender tweet from yesterday afternoon, we talked about, we have the first response from the Ayatollah Khamenei, which is rejection. I think if one more day of no accommodation, then we are on the brink of American involvement.
- [48:32]
John Podhoretz
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- [50:24]
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- [51:27]
John Podhoretz
So Trump of course is not a student of American history. You always say, well, he's a student of American history. He's read all you know. Trump is not a student of American history. So I hesitate to read too much into the unconditional surrender tweet. But, of course, unconditional surrender has a very specific meaning in American history because it was what led Lincoln to change the generalship of the Civil War and put the military in the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who was, of course, unconditional surrender. Grant, U. S. Grant. Unconditional surrender. The only way this war ends is for the south to bow and bend the knee and say, we are done, and leave the battlefield and acknowledge their defeat and their disarmament. And when Trump says it, if any other president had said it, I would say that's what he's trying to evoke. That's it. Japan, Germany, all were destroyed. Rather than going to unconditional surrender, like, we basically just, you know, we. We destroyed those regimes and laid them into rubble. They didn't even have to surrender. Like, we just dictate they were done. We just dictated terms to them. So he is giving them an out according to the, you know, standards of American history, in which, you know, we didn't have the Union army spending five years laying waste to the south from six, from 1865 to 1870, which could have been the case that the. That the. That the north would have occupied the south, you know, effectively taken over the south and, you know, done Atlanta marches, you know, and battle, you know, and stuff like that for five years just to totally break the will of the South. And, you know, maybe that would actually have been better because we wouldn't have had 75 years of Jim Crow. But that was. That is what unconditional surrender means in an American context. And, yeah, he has. Israel has just issued a bulletin saying that everybody in Israel needs to have no gatherings, stay close to a shelter for the next 48 hours. No more than 30 people in any specific location. Don't be on the roads, all of that. So either Israel is expecting a massive barrage from Iran, larger than it has seen so far, or it is preparing for a countermeasure after the Ford out hit one or the other. So the next 48 hours, Israel is now signaling how critical the next 48 hours are. And. And so we, you know, again, as we have, you know, we wish them Godspeed, we wish them victory. We wish us victory. This is the most evil, you know, this is among the most evil regimes in the world and has been, I think, consistently since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the, you know, in the top three of evildoers on the planet. And it would be an unalloyed good for that regime to disappear and for the 90 million people in Iran to have a different future, not under, under their yoke. But again, regime change is not our, is not our goal. Deterrence is our goal. And deterrence would be best served and most efficiently achieved by an American strike on Fordow. Even though as a Zionist, I think that there is this argument to be made that Israel should go it alone.
- [55:19]
Matthew Continetti
I think there's another reason that it would be good for the US to do, and that's tied specifically to Trump, which is that because he has been so bizarrely steadfast in stretching out diplomacy with so many bad actors, I think it would be a good sign for him to show that his patience is not bottomless and that he is willing to take action at the end of the day.
- [55:52]
Abe Greenwald
Yeah, I mean, and he has taken action before. He has. He punished Assad for the chemical weapons, he fought isis, he killed Baghdadi. They took out another ISIS leader recently, Soleimani. Right. I mean, they took out some Somali terrorists earlier this year. And of course, they fought the Houthis for several weeks until coming to this accommodation. Here is what I think is important to remember, just to close in all the media coverage this morning, the media, which has joined forces with the Tucker Carlson's of the world and the AOCs of the world to try to prevent any American action, keeps repeating the line that Donald Trump has promised for 10 years not to begin or enter any forever wars. Donald Trump's America first foreign policy is to extract America from the Middle east, not to become more involved. True, true. You know what else has been Donald Trump's foreign policy for 10 years since his very announcement speech 10 years ago earlier this week? Iran must not have a nuclear weapon and the United States must support the state of Israel. And just as he has done everything he could over the past 10 years not to overly involve America in the Middle East. And yes, to withdraw American forces from the Middle East. That happened in Afghanistan, where he was the person who set in motion the peace plan with the Taliban that is happening now in Syria where we are drawing down the forces, the anti ISIS forces in Syria. But he has also stood with Israel and he has also been entirely clear that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon. And this is why it's so important. If he decides to act, it is not us being dragged into a Middle Eastern war, as we hear again and again, it is Donald Trump fulfilling a campaign promise to guarantee that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon on his watch. And the way this is going, at least not for several decades, if ever, that's what's important. And I just wish the media would also include that in their partisan coverage.
- [58:08]
John Podhoretz
Well spoken. We'll be back tomorrow. For Matt and Abe, I'm John Podhoretz. Keep the candle bur.