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- [00:04]
Dan Shaftan
Hope for the best, expect the worst. Some drink champagne, some die at first no way of knowing which way it's going. Hope for the best, expect the worst, hope for the best.
- [00:23]
John Podhoritz
Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily podcast. Today's Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026. I'm Jon Pod Horiz, the editor of Commentary Magazine Week. With me, as always, senior editor Seth Mandel. Hi, Seth.
- [00:35]
Seth Mandel
Hi, John.
- [00:36]
John Podhoritz
Washington Free Beacon editor Eliana Johnson. Hi, Eliana.
- [00:39]
Eliana Johnson
Hi, John.
- [00:40]
John Podhoritz
And I'm delighted to have joining us today the head of the International Graduate Program in National Security at the University of Haifa, Dan Shaftan, advisor to many Israeli prime ministers, person involved in negotiations on Israel's behalf for many decades, and a very funny guy. So, Don Chefton, welcome to the podcast.
- [01:07]
Dan Shaftan
Delighted to be with you.
- [01:09]
John Podhoritz
We're gonna start with something that you probably don't know about. So sit back while we talk about it for 10 minutes and then we're gonna get to the larger subject. Very weird stuff happening in New York and in Montreal and horrible stuff. More, you know, an effort to start a shooting spree outside the Chabad house in Montreal leading to the killing of an innocent bystander by a Montreal police officer. And the weird thing about this story is not that there's a shooting outside a Chabad house. Unfortunately, that is not the weird story. The weird story is that the shooter left a manifesto. And all day yesterday we were told that the shooter's motive was that he was an incest one of these people who is angry at women and he can't get dates. And this is what basically impelled him to go on this spree. Except that's not true. The manifesto which was then released is full of Jew hatred, antisemitism and the desire to rid the world of Jews. So for some reason the authorities in Montreal saw fit to say that they did not discern a motive or that the motive was not Jew killing. And so we are now moving into the phase where this has now come to our continent. We're familiar with France and others having anti Semitic killing sprees and that sort of thing. And that we're told, well, you can't discern a motive. This is now happening here, just several hundred miles to my north in New York and then in New York. Eliana, do you want to talk about the coffee shop horror?
- [03:05]
Eliana Johnson
Absolutely. Yesterday morning, Democratic Congressional Representative Dan Goldman, who today is facing off in a primary against the Zoran Mandani backed Brad Lander, walked into a Brooklyn coffee shop, Poetica coffee shop, for his seven year old daughter to use the restroom and bought a coffee and was photographed in the coffee shop. And by all accounts, including Goldman's, had a perfectly pleasant experience in the coffee shop. But when the founder owner of the coffee shop, an Uzbek immigrant by the name of Parvez Mukamad Kulov, caught wind that Israel supporter Dan Goldman had been in his coffee shop, he put up an Instagram post saying he was horrified that anybody who supports genocide had been in his coffee shop. He refunded the $9.34 that Goldman had spent at the coffee shop and posted. Pretty simple process. If you support genocide, we reserve the right not to serve you and said, you know, go drink your genocide juice elsewhere. I'm paraphrasing. This is not exactly what he said. This caused an uproar and Goldman was totally diplomatic and frankly lovely about it. The Free Beacon decided to look into who exactly this man is and he has posted all over the Internet attacking Israel, declaring in August of 2022 that Israel is a terrorist state and worse than Hitler. His coffee shop has been fined for gross health violations, unsanitary conditions. He, of course, this goes to my theory that.
- [05:17]
John Podhoritz
Hold on, hold on. He has withheld also in your story, half a million dollars in sales.
- [05:23]
Eliana Johnson
I'm getting to that.
- [05:24]
John Podhoritz
Sorry.
- [05:25]
Eliana Johnson
I was saying it goes to my theory that anti Semites are also trash human beings in other realms of their lives. He owes $397,000 from New York State in taxes, sales taxes. In sales taxes and is a absolutely terrible human being. And the New York Times has now covered this. The Free Beacons reporter John Levine brought this to national attention. And my only thought, John, is the New York Times did not cover this in the context of an explosion of antisemitism. If this had happened to Rashida Tlaib or Ilhan Omar or you know, any Muslim member of Congress, we would be having a national conversation wall to wall in the press, msnbc, cnn, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal about an explosion of Islamophobia. If this had happened to an Asian as it did in the Atlanta massacre when it had nothing to do with anti Asian hate, it happened in some Asian spa but was just a white lunatic who did it, we would be talking about a rise in anti Asian hate with this. It's just a one off that happened to Dan Goldman on the day of his primary where Zoran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City has called AIPAC monsters and intentionally stoked Jew hatred. No one's beyond the fact that Dan Goldman is a Jewish supporter of Israel.
- [07:09]
John Podhoritz
Right. Two points. One, Brad Lander, his rival, who is a person I do not like and do not respect, put out a very gracious statement saying he thought that Goldman had behaved graciously and this sort of thing shouldn't happen. You know who has said nothing? The Mayor of New York City, Mamdani.
- [07:28]
Eliana Johnson
The Times reached out to Mamdani and Mamdani declined to comment on this. Declined to say that this is unacceptable.
- [07:37]
John Podhoritz
Yes.
- [07:37]
Eliana Johnson
Filthy anti Semitism.
- [07:39]
John Podhoritz
Yes. And however, the head of the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice, Harmony Dhillon, announced that she was going to investigate whether or not service had been denied to someone on the basis of their, of their race, religion or national origin. And if so, she would pursue a case against our Uzbek coffee pouring friend. But it is very notable today, primary day here in New York City, a Democrat primary day, Zoran Mamdani would not say, you're not allowed in my city. Hate has no place. And don't you be. And Dan Goldman is an elected official. Not only is he a Jew, a Jewish person with his daughter trying to go to the bathroom, but he's also like a leading political figure in New York City. This is outrageous. How dare you. He wouldn't say anything. And Goldman is involved in one of the three races that Mamdani has decided to use as a test case of his political power. This race between Goldman and Lander in South Brooklyn, Darieliza Chevalier. And for some reason I have a
- [08:58]
Eliana Johnson
block on Claire Valdez.
- [08:59]
John Podhoritz
Yeah, this is the second day in a row I couldn't remember Claire Valdez's name because I spent so much time learning how to say Darieliza Chevalier that I couldn't remember Claire Valdez.
- [09:07]
Eliana Johnson
Well, you mastered that one.
- [09:08]
John Podhoritz
Anyway, he has made it a very deliberate choice to say I am running. These three people are running with me for me as part of a movement that I am heading. And so it is going to be very interesting to see where we stand at the end of the night tonight or tomorrow morning about where Zoran Mamdani's explicit membership in the Democratic Socialists of America, this anti Zionist, Jew hating, radical, semi communist party, where this is going. Because the people that you cited, you know, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, the squad, they are, no matter how you wanna slice it, they are Democratic. They are, they are sort of members of the Democratic Party, ran as demo. They are not from an insurgent party outside the Democratic Party that is attempting basically to invade and take over the Democratic Party. As Seth said yesterday. What term did you use? The political term, wasn't that you, the extractive. All right, whatever. Okay, whatever. I'm sorry. So that's where we are. And so this is this kind of weird thing where this guy thought basically, obviously, I don't think he wanted to get himself into this kind of trouble. Most small businessmen wouldn't want to get him even if he wanted to martyr himself. But that he thought that this was a conventional thing to do that would net him all kinds of support rather than becoming a figure of national controversy, shows us how far down the road we have gone to the normalization of everyday, ordinary antisemitism. Where in this country 70, 75 years ago, the idea that a shopkeeper would say, we have the right to refuse service to anyone, that was a key element of the civil rights movement in the United States, that black people in the south were not allowed to eat at a lunch counter. And the sign would be up in the lunch counter somewhere in the south saying, we reserve the right to refuse service to anyone. People learned that that was like an evil thing to say and stopped saying it or trying to make the case or even doing anything about it in their businesses once the civil rights movement took hold in the 1960s. And here we are back again 60 years later with somebody saying, I reserve the right to refuse service to a Jew because he makes me sick.
- [11:59]
Seth Mandel
Which is why I, like, much as I appreciate Brad Lander making a, you know, a decent comment about this, I appreciate it to the exact same extent I appreciate an arsonist who picks up a hose.
- [12:17]
John Podhoritz
I like a very good analogy.
- [12:20]
Seth Mandel
I mean, he, he is introduced at rallies as the man who will defeat AIPAC owned Dan Goldman. And he talked to the New York Times about it and New York Times asked him about the fact that this, your joining the anti AIPAC campaign seems to have a caution effect. The New York Times obviously didn't use that term. But, you know, people will follow your lead because you are Jewish and because you say the word bagel a lot and therefore, you know, think this is really okay, whatever. And he said something like, you know, it kind of makes me queasy to talk about it because of the anti Semitic tropes, but I have to do it. So, you know, he understands that what he's saying is, you know, he's part of this narrative that Jewish money is inherently corrupting American politics in American politics, and that his opponent can't be trusted because he's been corrupted by Jewish money. And the whole campaign has been centered around that idea. Again, whatever you think of of aipac. It's not an Israeli organization. It's not, it is not an Israel lobby. It's, you know, it's pro Israel, but it is. These are American Jews. And one of the. I pointed out in, in a post a few days ago that Claire Valdez actually was, was in the middle of something that was almost humorous about this, which is that she, there was a super PAC that was helping her that announced it was buying ads in support of her opponent. And she went on Twitter and said, must probably apac, must be a pack. It's a, it's dark money. We won't know who their donors are till after the primary. Must be a pack. And, you know, other Democrats went on Twitter and defended her and it turned out to be Randy Weingarten and the teachers unions who, who were getting involved. Because Jewish money is not the only dark money. You know, they frame this as if the Jews are trying to buy elections by participating in democracy to the same exact extent and in the same way that everybody else is. The teachers unions, anybody else. And so, you know, she sort of. And then she defended it. Claire Valdez did her campaign by saying, well, we found these other voters who, donors who had given to our opponent who had also given to AIPAC affiliated organizations. Now what is that a reference to? Who gives to Jew Jewish American organizations? Right. Those same people gave, probably gave to the UJA and the Jewish Federation and the this and the that. And you know, these are what she's describing as Jewish donors. People who gave to AIPAC who happened to give money to AIPAC also giving money to a candidate now are disqualified by association. And so the AIPAC thing has blown up into obviously being much more than just aipac. AIPAC being used as a stand in the way Zionist is being used as, you know, for Jew and stuff like that. And Brad Lander has been at the center of this this whole time. And so I appreciate the comment, but I would more appreciate if he could go back in time and be somewh. Someone different from himself because he has helped create this mess. And also, I think Mamdani really has to take some responsibility for. I mean, he's not going to accept responsibility, but responsibility for this should be foisted upon him.
- [15:56]
John Podhoritz
He should be assigned responsibility.
- [15:58]
Seth Mandel
He should be assigned responsibility, people of
- [16:00]
John Podhoritz
goodwill, for understanding that he is part of something. Forces are being unleashed here that are completely foreign to American politics. In my lifetime in which you oppose Jewish involvement in regular everyday life, that is a real thing, has been a real thing for Jews for three millennia it was not a thing. Here it is now becoming a thing. Major American politicians are essentially playing this game along with it, and the main Senate race is going to revolve around it, and the 2027 Democratic primary is going to revolve around it. And this is a very dangerous time for Jews, not just in Montreal, but elsewhere. You know, when I go out and people who are listeners to the podcast see me on the street, they're always asking me, is that quince is what you're wearing Quince? And the answer is yes, it's usually quints. And why I keep coming back to quints is because they focus on high quality essentials that feel and look amazing. Think breathable linen and soft organic cotton, particularly for summer. Well made basics, but without the luxury markup. It's that rare balance where everything feels elevated but still effortless. Quince European linen pants and shirts. Perfect warm weather upgrade to add to your rotation. Starting at just $34. Their tees are soft and easy to wear and and their lightweight cotton sweaters are perfect for cooler summer nights. Elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quint.com commentary for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q U y n c e.com commentary for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quint.com commentary. Look, I bet your career looks fine on paper, but maybe something really feels off or you feel stuck or you're burned out, you're ready for a bigger move. Or maybe you just want clarity on what's next for you. That's where today's sponsor, Strawberry Me, comes in. Strawberry Me or Strawberry Me matches you with a real career coach who is carefully selected based on your goals, personality and professional background. I'm not talking about random Internet gurus. Coaches on the platform average 16 years of experience across 900 companies and 37 industries. Most have been leaders, founders or executives themselves. And it's not just one conversation. You meet one on one over video, build a personalized plan together, and you stay connected between sessions through messaging. When real life challenges come up, most people hit a meaningful milestone within four to six sessions, whether that's landing a new role, getting unstuck, building confidence, or finally taking action on something you've been putting off for years. That's what you can get with Strawberry Me. So visit Strawberry Me Commentary and start with a coaching trial today for our listeners. Tell them that it was the Commentary magazine podcast and you'll get 50% off your first session. Okay, Don Shaftan, can we turn now to discussing the overall situation that Israel, the United States, the Gulf states are facing in relation to Iran and how you feel about what on earth has happened in the last five days in Switzerland, or really three days in Switzerland.
- [19:57]
Dan Shaftan
But let me start by making reference to what you just discussed. This has become to a global war against the Jews. And I think that nobody could have expected that. The hostility towards Jews worldwide is just 1 millimeter under the surface. And it erupted now. And of course it's a bad thing, but it's also a good thing. It's a bad thing because we are facing enormous forces now that we didn't realize will clash with us while we have such a difficult situation in the Middle east itself. But it's a good thing because we know where we stand. And for old fashioned Zionists like me who believe that in the final analysis, Jewish existence is possible only in the ancestral Jewish homeland and not in exile, I think this is unfortunately enforcing an understanding that in the final analysis, the only place where Jews can defend themselves is here. And I realize that that's not an easy thing for other people to accept, and it's very difficult for me to accept. But I've seen Jewish life outside of Israel always like something that is temporary again, not the life of Jews. I don't think that Jews are, you know, massively as a collective in danger. But Jewish life in Europe is over. Jewish life throughout the world, it's over. And in the United States there is another generation. And if you look at the attitude of many young educated Jews in the United States, I think this works in the same direction. And I'm very depressed as a Jewish to see that process happening because I want people who have another choice than my choice to have their way of life. And I want it to succeed and I want it to be self evident. The Jews can find their place in the world like everybody else. But we have learned something in the last two or three years. And the war was just a good opportunity for all of this to erupt. Because had it not been there in a very massive way, it would not have erupted on such a major scale as it did back to the Middle East.
- [22:38]
John Podhoritz
I mean, that's a very important point because one thing that friends of mine was at a party last night, people from parents of the Jewish day school that my son attends. And the general question was, how did this, we're now, you know, not quite three years from October 7th. If you had told me on October 8th that the overall Posture of and view of Israel in The United States two and three quarter years after October 7th would have turned hostile after a completely unprovoked attack that led to 5,000 casualties in a single morning, an afternoon. I would have thought you were crazy. Like, logically that would not be the inference you would make about a country that was net positively inclined.
- [23:38]
Dan Shaftan
Forget about the country for a moment. There is something much deeper here because what is happening in the United States now has already happened in Europe.
- [23:48]
John Podhoritz
Yes.
- [23:48]
Dan Shaftan
And it happened in the United States to an extent, because the United States had an extension of something happening in Europe. The Zeitgeist of Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It started earlier, but it catapulted after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This whole fantasy of now we can speak to everybody and everybody is on the way of becoming democratic and open minded and they don't want war no more and so on. And by the way, we had Israelis who went in this direction. I mean, the dumbest of them was Shimon Peres. And I constantly told Shimon Peres what I thought about his illusion that now that everybody realizes that democracy and peace brings a good life, we will have also democracy and peace in the Arab world. Because even if the corrupt and dictatorial leaders would not want it, Arab society would force them out of office. And then Arab society with all its beauty and pluralism will show itself and then we will live in peace in the Middle east ever after. And this was the foundation of the Oslo Agreement. You see, I was one of the few people in Israel who in terms of concession was went beyond Rabin and in terms of attitude to the Oslo process. I approached Rabin immediately after he started it and I said, I don't understand why you did it in September. There is a particular day in the calendar where you should have done it. It's designated for it. April 1st. This is when you should have had the Oslo process because you completely misread what is happening in the Arab world. And again, to put it into a much broader context than the Middle east, what is being decided in this war, what is at stake at this war is the question of can civilized people defend themselves against barbarians? If civilized people want to continue to be civilized and therefore put restrictions on themselves, what they're prepared and not prepared to do and actually what the barbarians have learned, and I don't just mean the barbarians in the Middle east, barbarians all over the world have learned that their strategy must be how to use the limitations that civilized people put on themselves and their strategy. Is to focus there and confuse dumb civilized people to stand on their side. And that's basically. I know that these sound a bit crude and I'm sure that in Harvard they have more sophisticated ways of saying something stupid than the way that I'm quoting now. But if you go to the roots of it, that's what it is. And this is why I'm so dismayed by what President Trump did in the last few weeks. Because he's basically saying we civilized people can't fight barbarians because there is no limit to what they're willing to do and because they don't even care about the welfare of their own people and because more bombs will not do the trick. So let's capitulate and see what happens. And the result is that people who are encouraged today in the world are not just the Iranians and Hamas and Hezbollah, but I'm sure that in North Korea they're very happy. And barbarians all over the world are saying, you see, even the United States cannot escalate as much as the Iranians, because this, in the final analysis is the ultimate test. And I know that it doesn't sound very, you know, lovely, but it's basically the, not only the Middle east where this is very clear, but also on a global level, if people are not afraid of you, you should be afraid of them. In the Middle east, it's very clear. If somebody is not afraid of you, you should be afraid of them because they will come to kill you. Because this is what the Middle east is about. The weak is being destroyed by the stronger.
- [28:26]
Matt Ebert
I started with one shop. No college degree, no big investors. It was just a willingness to work. Over time, that one shop turned into a multi billion dollar business called Crash Champions. All the lessons I learned along the way came from the grind. And that's what my show Pod Crash is all about. We have real conversations with people who've built things the hard way. We talked to founders, athletes and blue collar leaders who kept going when things got tough. You'll hear stories of grit, leadership and growth, plus real world lessons you can take back to your team and your life tomorrow.
- [29:00]
John Podhoritz
When you get momentum, you step on the gas.
- [29:03]
Seth Mandel
That's how you get separation from everybody else.
- [29:05]
Dan Shaftan
I was at Harvard Law School. I was blah, blah, blah. I looked up, let me tell you something, there's kids in my neighborhood putting in sheetrock that are smarter than you.
- [29:11]
Seth Mandel
AI is going to disrupt a lot of stuff.
- [29:13]
Dan Shaftan
It is never going to disrupt physical blue collar traits. And the guy just looked at me and he said, it's bloody impossible. So I asked him this question.
- [29:22]
Eric Gertler
I said, it's impossible.
- [29:23]
Dan Shaftan
Unless that's.
- [29:26]
Matt Ebert
Podcast with me, Matt ebert. Watch on YouTube and listen. Wherever you get your podcasts.
- [29:34]
Eric Gertler
From the State House to the courthouse, in the emergency room and in the classroom, Americans are losing trust in their leaders. In a 2025 U.S. news and World Report survey, 85% of Americans said government more about their own power than the people they serve. 73% are disappointed in healthcare leaders, 72% in business, and 68% in education. But there are still leaders worth believing in. I'm Eric Gertler, CEO and executive chairman of U.S. news World Report. This is the Best Leaders podcast sponsored by the Noble Reach Foundation. On this show, we'll go deeper into the stories, challenges and lessons of extraordinary leaders across public service, business, healthcare and education. You can find the best leaders podcasts from U.S. news World Report on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [30:38]
John Podhoritz
Let me ask you, you mentioned Shimon, Paris and Robin and the oslo Accords of 1993, 32, 33 years ago, and this theory that Shimon Peres had that Israel could become the anchor of a new Middle east, that it could be like Switzerland, it could sort of, its innovative economy could help spread wisdom and modern economic principles to, to these countries on its border, and this would be a new Middle East. And our vice president, J.D. vance, has been saying things in the last 72 hours like, this is really, for the first time in 47 years, the Iranians sound like they want to join the international community and they want to be part of the international community.
- [31:34]
Dan Shaftan
I didn't know that they have a sense of humor.
- [31:39]
John Podhoritz
You know what's funny about what you just said, that is the defining quality of JD Vance is that he has absolutely no sense of humor. And I say that as somebody who knows him, but yes, inadvertently funny. But I mean, we're talking about a regime that six months ago murdered 40,000 of its own people in a single day. And they're really, really excited about joining the international community and being part of the civilized community of nations. Having figured out how to blackmail us.
- [32:12]
Dan Shaftan
This whole term of international community assumes that globally we have something in common. I mean, we, Western civilization, assume that people in North Korea or in Iran or in portions of South America or in portions of Africa have similar values to our own and we can have an international community. The very existence of, of an international community, and particularly associating it with the United nations, which is a prostituted organization because Anything international is by definition prostituted because it is built on nations. And the regimes in these nations that represent these nations are dictatorial or oppressive or barbarian or what have you. And actually what you have there in these organizations are these repulsive regimes, and then the Europeans trying to fit into it and prostituting their own values in order to fit into it. So the very idea that you have something like a global solidarity or a universal solidarity, and therefore, for instance, if people suffer in one country, you have the obligation of letting them come into your country, because after all, we all have one large human solidarity. This is a lie. It doesn't exist. This is something dangerous. Because if the Europeans let in people who truly suffer, forget about those who pretend to suffer, and they don't take only those who truly suffer from their regimes or whatever, there are billions of people, when they come into Europe, they will destroy Europe. And then we will not have any place on earth with a good life. Because people who destroyed their own country by their inferior culture, and let me stress here, not different culture, inferior culture. When you treat women like in Afghanistan, you're not different, you're inferior. And when you bring your inferior culture into a superior culture, not perfect, but superior because it's pluralistic, and you destroy it by the very fact that you contaminate the way people treat each other with your violence, with your treatment of women. But we all are part of one happy, big happy family. We're not a family and we have nothing in common with some. And the people we have a lot in common with in these countries, the people who oppose these regimes, the people who I really appreciate, the people who are really part of my solidarity ring, we destroy these people by working with their regimes, because their regimes are repulsive. Now, do you have to work with them sometimes for strategic reasons? Yes. But do you want to help them, to strengthen them at the expense of the people that we respect and that are very courageous and willing to put their lives on the lines? That's the problem.
- [35:43]
John Podhoritz
Okay, so let's move on to where Israel stands in the course of these negotiations. Negotiations you yourself have.
- [35:52]
Dan Shaftan
Well, let's start before the negotiations. Where Israel stands is dramatically revolutionary. Better than on the 7th of October a because we've hit the radicals very hard. Trump is rebuilding the Iranians now, but we've hit the Muslim Brotherhood, not just the Hamas. The important thing is not the organization, but the society. The society of the Muslim Brotherhood are the repulsive and the barbaric society. By the way, the Muslim Brotherhood threatens not only the Gaza Strip, it threatens Egypt and Jordan, and it threatens Arab countries that are trying to help their own citizens. And the number one reason why the Arab world is backwards and again, by the way, not developing or something, but backwards, is the sentiment that is reflected in the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Arab world, not only in the Gaza Strip. And they are today much weaker. And Hezbollah in Lebanon is much weaker. And rooting them out is impossible because this is what parts of the societies are. The society in the Gaza Strip and a large part the Shiite community, primarily in most of the Shiite community in Lebanon. And they are much weaker. And the Syrian Assad regime doesn't exist anymore. And Iran was weakened dramatically until Trump decided to bring them back. And I don't think it will last. We will discuss it in a moment. And Israel emerges as by far not only the most important power in the Middle east, but the only regional power in the Middle East, Egypt.
- [37:54]
John Podhoritz
Well, let me ask you about that. Let me ask you about that, because the agreement, or Vance says that they are building this mechanism to cope with the condition of Lebanon and that this mechanism involves Gulf states and the United States and Turkey and Iran and obviously does not involve Israel. Meanwhile, over the last week has been the revelation of this hidden base in southern Lebanon, built in the side of a mountain, which is a sort of omni base, but it's also where drones are being constructed, where missiles are being hidden, has, you know, housing for hundreds of terrorists to go hide. And now that we know that this exists and there is an electoral campaign going on in Israel that will come to the election will happen sometime in October. The electoral season is probably going to continue for months after that. Israel is being kept out of the mechanism to ensure some kind of a pacified Lebanon. But doesn't Israel have to now strike the mountain that it has exposed? Doesn't the logic of October 7th say that now Israel is going to have to defy the United States and hit this site because it's now made it clear that it exists and it cannot be allowed to continue to exist.
- [39:32]
Dan Shaftan
Let me, again, I apologize for this. Go beyond the specific questions of the next days to the broader issue. Everything that Trump came up with concerning the Middle east is ridiculous, starting with the idea that the Gazans will leave, continuing with the idea that you will have a Riviera in Gaza, continuing with the idea that you will have a peace, something, whatever it was called in Gaza. All of this is completely irrelevant to the Middle East. It is in the fantasy land of Trump and it isn't even something that you must seriously consider or seriously fight, because it has no roots whatsoever in reality in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon. In the Gaza Strip, you have only two players, and this is Hamas and Israel. And Israel. Kennedy try and will continue to try to minimize the impact of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. And you know what? My grandson was fighting in Gaza, and very soon his grandson will be fighting in Gaza. Because in Gaza, you have barbarians, people who the only thing in their life is to kill Jews. They have nothing positive. They don't have a constructive bone in their national body. And while individual Gazans can be very impressive people, if you look at the collective, you have something there that is profoundly gangrened. And I don't think anything can be done in order to completely eliminate it. So you constantly have to see to it that they are as weak as possible. And you can have as many councils and you can have meetings throughout the world. And actually, I'm delighted that Israel is not invited, because I'm sure you all speak Hebrew, but Moshavli tzim loteshev. Okay, don't really go to places where they discuss ridiculous things. And in Lebanon, again, they are the enemies of Lebanon and the friends of Lebanon. The enemies of Lebanon are Turkey and Qatar because they want to strengthen Hezbollah. And also when it comes to Arab Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia is now working with the Turks and with the Qataris to some extent. And the only country you can trust in the Gulf are the Emiratis. So if you want to work with American guidance, Israeli military forces, and Emirati money, that's a good combination. And if we can help the Lebanese government, for the first time, we have in Lebanon a president, a prime minister, and a minister of foreign affairs who are willing to try to see if Lebanon can regain its independence. And since 1969, Lebanon is trying to regain its independence. And unfortunately, when Trump recognizes the Iranian control in Lebanon, it undermines the Lebanese government and it undermines the Lebanese people, because for the first time, the United States is saying the United States will enforce on Israel, the Iranian will in Lebanon. When Israel is fighting Hezbollah, the only thing that you can do there is to hit them. There is no other mechanism that you can do in Lebanon. The only thing the Lebanese government wants is whatever is bad for Hezbollah. So Trump is at the moment working on the wrong side, but for the wrong side. But I'm sure he will come back, because from an American point of view, you don't have a choice. So should Israel destroy these strongholds?
- [43:32]
John Podhoritz
Yes.
- [43:33]
Dan Shaftan
Once you destroy them, they will build new strongholds. And you need to constantly destroy them and undermine them. And anybody who looks for solutions, and by the way, this is true about the Middle east in general, anybody who looks for solutions should take up crossword puzzles, because the only thing that has solutions are crossword puzzles. And even if you only utter the word solution, this is. You testify your stupidity. In the Middle east, you don't have solutions. You can think in terms of responses, effective responses that will combine damage control with the use of opportunities. This is the best you can do. And it's very good. Look, we have succeeded dramatically with Egypt. It took us 25 years since Nasser came to power. And until Egypt accepted the Israeli dictate of signing a separate accord, the term peace is not important. The term separate is important. So it takes sometimes decades. It doesn't bring eternal peace. It is not a solution. But Israel is becoming stronger and stronger every decade since its inception. And as long as we become dramatically stronger than our enemies, then we are moving in a positive direction.
- [45:14]
John Podhoritz
So does that mean to you that the war that started on February 28th, not that starting, let's say with the 12 day war that led to the bombing of the nuclear sites last year, but then this war, Israel, tactically and strategically is now facing a much weaker Iran. While it has demonstrated its own capacities that we didn't really know that Israel had this kind of long range, long range fighter capacity. Does this suggest to you that absent further American involvement or participation in military action, that Israel will have a hand, a free hand, or at least an understanding that it can go and mow the lawn in Iran if Iran starts rebuilding its ballistic missile program?
- [46:17]
Dan Shaftan
Israel never had a free hand since its inception. What the Arabs have always tried to do, all the enemies of Israel said the following. Only the United States can impose on Israel the will of the Arab radicals. So what do we need to do in order that the stupid Americans will impose on Israel the will of the radicals who are also the enemies of the United States? They did it in 1956 when Eisenhower was stupid enough to really revive Nasser and make him a great hero and cause major problems for the United States for decades to come. And then Kennedy, who basically wanted to help Nasser because he believed he had a difficult childhood and he needs to help him and his policy was wrong all along. And if I jump fast forward Jimmy Carter, perhaps the dumbest president the United States had, not in terms of intelligence, but in terms of completely misunderstanding the Middle east and doing all the negative things. And finally, Sadat forced Carter to do the Opposite of what Jimmy Carter wanted and help in establishing the separate. Separate. Separate, not peace. Peace is not the important term. Separate peace between Israel and Egypt, namely, whatever happens in the Middle East, Egypt does not respond. And if Egypt does not respond, it cannot bring behind it the whole Arab world. And therefore Israel has a relatively free hand because there is no Arab world, because only Egypt can lead the Arab world. And then Obama. All these presidents worked against the best interest of the United States because Americans don't understand radicalism. They think that radicals are reasonable people like us. And if you give them whatever they deserve without making war, they will not make war. And then Israel never, ever, ever, ever, ever had a free hand. But sometimes we were given a free hand, like the yellow light that Johnson gave us in 67. Sometimes we work against the will of friendly American presidents, as we did when we destroyed the Iraqi nuclear capability. Had we listened to Ronald Reagan, Saddam Hussein would have had nuclear weapons. Okay? So Israel constantly is under American pressure that objectively supports Arab radicals, be it Arafat being Nasser and now the Iranian regime.
- [49:07]
John Podhoritz
I think importantly, to follow what you were talking about, the separate piece that you're talking about was that the general understanding from the United States, from the Rogers peace plan, which was during the Nixon administration onward, is the only way you have a solution to the problem of the Middle East's political.
- [49:28]
Dan Shaftan
You used the S word solution, right? Never. This is one word that is so obscene that I'm not willing to listen to it without commenting.
- [49:40]
John Podhoritz
Okay, fair enough. Okay. But that any resolution would have to be comprehensive. You couldn't. You needed to deal with the Palestinians, the neighbors.
- [49:53]
Dan Shaftan
Stupid. Yes, right.
- [49:55]
John Podhoritz
But you're saying stupid. But it was the complete conventional wisdom of the foreign policy world in the United States.
- [50:02]
Dan Shaftan
Conventional wisdom is children is stupid.
- [50:04]
John Podhoritz
Right, of course. So Sadat insisted, said, I'm gonna do this. Apart from the. We're not talking about the Palestinians. This is just us, Israel and the United States. Okay. Of course, right now, 50. I don't know. What is it? 55, 56 years later, J.D. vance, our vice president of the most unilateralist administration that we've ever had is in Switzerland negotiating multilateral contraptions, mechanisms to impose peace or to help create the conditions in which Lebanon will not be a battlefield between.
- [50:50]
Dan Shaftan
And then you say it doesn't have a sense of humor.
- [50:54]
John Podhoritz
You have the sense of humor to understand what kind of black humor, inadvertent comedy is being practiced here. We have no interest in the United States in alloying.
- [51:07]
Dan Shaftan
I don't know if it's the air or the water. But Americans don't understand the Middle East.
- [51:14]
John Podhoritz
Okay, well, we don't live in the Middle East. We don't live in the Middle East. Why should we understand it?
- [51:19]
Dan Shaftan
You don't have to live in a place to understand it, okay? You only need to learn from. Look, Kissinger understood it. Nixon understood it. In a way, Johnson understood it, okay? But again, the moment you want to have a resolution or a solution or a peace or forever or anything like it, you don't understand the Middle East. Okay? And now the Europeans don't understand the Middle east, but they also don't count. The Americans count, but you always need to work against. Look, let me give you a specific example. The Biden administration removed the position of the Houthis as a terrorist organization, put enormous pressure on the Saudis and the Emiratis to stop the war in Yemen, and then gave the Houthis support, humanitarian support. Okay, what does it mean? It means that they believe that if a crocodile attacks you, you should give them a banana, because after all, what a crocodile wants is a banana. You give them a banana, you pacify them. These people live in La la land. They have no clue about what's going on here in the region.
- [52:42]
John Podhoritz
Okay, but therefore. And Seth and Eliana, maybe you can jump therefore. Like two weeks ago, it appeared that Trump had some of this wisdom that you are proffering to our listeners here and then flipped. He just turned into another person out of nowhere.
- [53:05]
Dan Shaftan
I wouldn't use the term wisdom when it comes to Trump. I would use the term good instincts.
- [53:12]
John Podhoritz
I don't know.
- [53:13]
Dan Shaftan
Well, we would sometimes call Saharan on some issues. He had good instincts. Remember, he brought us. And you cannot take it away with them, the Abraham Accords that were extremely helpful in the region. Okay? He participated with Israel in a war against Iran. He made it much easier for Israel to achieve its objectives in Lebanon and the initial objectives in Iran in his case. I've already said it in another podcast. It is like somebody sitting with a bucket and milking for a long time. And when the bucket is full, it kicks the buckets into the other product of the cow because he cannot help himself but do it. I don't think you could have expected a coherent strategy from a person who cannot make a coherent sentence. But when he has good instincts, we should use it, and when he has bad instincts, we should survive it, in spite of the fact that he doesn't know what he's doing. Because.
- [54:24]
Seth Mandel
Can I ask a question about the. Since you mentioned the Abraham Accords. I've been nervous about watching this, the latest version of Trump and all he's giving away to the Iranians, because the there's part of the deal that essentially has this fund that has the U.S. and maybe the Arab states helping to rebuild things in Iran that were broken by the war. And I'm wondering if this kind of thing imperils the progress made by the Abraham Accords, because at the outset of this war, Israel was fighting alongside the US and the Arab states in a key way. I mean, even if it was defensively, they would deploy missile defense in the uae. They would. So they were integrated. The Arab states were integrated into a war with Israel. And it seemed like they all had the same amount of skin in the game. But now I'm wondering if there's a going to be a buyer's remorse. And the Arab states who say even when we think we have the American superpower behind us, we get left hung out to dry, and therefore we're not actually going to take more chances because we're not going to stick our necks out even more to make nice with the Israelis, publicly at least, because in the end, every American president seems to come back to, well, Iran can't be defeated. And so therefore, we should not count on anybody who says they can defeat Iran. We should count on Iran continuing to exert power over the region and plan accordingly.
- [56:18]
Dan Shaftan
This is the dilemma that Arab states in the Gulf have. We have the UAE that is by far the more determined to pursue a policy that is helpful and correct. But also, people in the UAE cannot stand alone. And we have the Saudis who could go this or that way, but are going in the wrong way trying to cooperate with Turkey and with Pakistan. And I think that this is a wrong way for Saudi Arabia. But you can't blame these people, because what they have learned is that every American president, even if he doesn't start by doing the wrong thing, will eventually come to do the wrong thing. On the other hand, they realize that the only power in the Middle east who is at the same time very strong and very dependable is Israel. And in the final analysis, the only power that both the United States and the Arab world can count on is Israel. Look again at the broader picture. If the United States wants to pivot to Asia, and it should pivot to Asia, the aircraft carriers shouldn't be in the Persian Gulf. They should be in the China Sea. Who do you leave the Middle east with? You can't leave the Middle east alone because the Middle east has this tendency to make house calls to you if you leave them alone because everything bad comes from this region or a lot of things.
- [57:51]
Seth Mandel
You may not be interested in the Middle east, but the Middle east is interested in you.
- [57:55]
Dan Shaftan
He's interested in you. They will come to make house calls. So who can you leave the Middle east with from an American point of view? Say the American public opinion likes us much less than it did in the past if they're not stupid, and very often they are. But if they're not stupid, they must appreciate us much more than before because we are the only real power in the region. I mean, Egypt is not a Middle Eastern power. It is on the verge of hunger. Turkey plays in a different arena. Saudi Arabia is a financial power, but they invest hundreds of billions of dollars in their army, which cannot do anything and isn't doing anything and is as if it is not existent. It is only a financial power in a very narrow sense of the term. The only power in the Middle east that is military, economic, technological, and recently even political, because we can maneuver between different parts of the Middle east, is Israel. So what will you do? You will disregard Israel? You will weaken Israel? You will stop supplying arms to Israel? Or let me ask you something that I asked in the Pentagon a few years ago. Somebody asked me because, you know, I have this advantage that I'm an unimportant person. I'm not an ambassador, I'm not a foreign minister. I'm just, you know. And they very bluntly said, and what are you going to do if we'll stop supplying you with aircraft? I said, oh, I know that when Israel is faced with existential threats and it has no conventional answer, it will immediately roll over and play dead. I mean, after all, this is what we've always done when we were threatened. And he then asked me, are you threatening me? And I said, moi? Of course not. But think about it for a moment. And I know that even Americans sometimes have to think. I know that it's rarely, but they sometimes have to think, do you really want to push Israel into a corner because you don't like it, and coffee houses will not serve pro Israeli politicians or something. Do you really want to go in this direction and in the region? Those countries who say terrible things about us five times a day know that they don't exist without Israel. Some of them. Jordan exists exclusively because Israel is strong. If you wouldn't have a strong Israel next to Jordan, Jordan would not exist as an independent state. Egypt would exist. But Egypt, if Israel would have not defeated the Muslim Brothers in the Gaza Strip. And people could say, look, the Muslim Brothers will bring us salvation. The next thing is the Muslim Brothers take over Egypt. When the United States was stupid enough to support democratic elections in Egypt, the Egyptians democratically wanted the Muslim Brothers. And it took a military coup d' etat to save the United States from the consequences of its own stupidity. Okay. Under the Obama administration. So countries in the Middle east appreciate the states of Israel. And when it comes to blaming Israel and badmouthing Israel, how can they be less anti Israel than Macron? How can they be less anti Israel than Mamdani or, I don't know, Sanders? Okay, a Jewish member of Senate. So what you have in the Middle east looks as if everybody is against Israel. But even if everybody hates Israel, everybody needs Israel.
- [62:08]
John Podhoritz
Okay, you know what? That is a great place to end. And I'm really thrilled to have this rather unexpectedly positive rendering of the historical trend line here.
- [62:22]
Dan Shaftan
Oh, I'm positive. Let me say something very shortly that I said very often, but it's so wise that I want to say it again. Okay. And modest. The difference is between a smart optimist and a dumb optimist. A dumb optimist says things will be better, and a smart optimist says things will get worse, but we will get stronger faster than things get worse. So the difference between the good guys and the bad guys is constantly growing, and that's the only realistic optimism that you can have.
- [63:00]
John Podhoritz
Dan Shaftan, thank you so much for joining us today. This has been a thrilling and unexpected conversation. And for Eliana and Seth, I'm John Podhoritz. Keep the candle burning.
- [63:27]
Dan Shaftan
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- [63:33]
Seth Mandel
It's like instantly locating your car in
- [63:35]
Dan Shaftan
a massive store parking lot. I found you, you cheeky rascal.
- [63:40]
Matt Ebert
It feels good to find what you're looking for.
- [63:41]
John Podhoritz
It feels good to Geico.