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Jon Podhoretz
Hope for best Expect the worst Some drink champagne Some die of thirst no way of knowing which way it's going Hope for the best Expect the worst Hope for the best welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast. Today is Wednesday, May 7, 2025. I am Jon Podhoretz, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me, as always, Executive Editor Abe Greenwald. Hi Abe. Hi, John Washington. Commentary columnist and Director of Domestic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Matthew Continetti
Matthew Continetti.
Jon Podhoretz
Hi Matt.
Abe Greenwald
Hi John.
Jon Podhoretz
And Senior Editor Seth Mandel. Hi Seth.
Seth Mandel
Hi John.
Jon Podhoretz
Okay, I'm hoping that our voices were sufficiently distinct in your monosyllabic responses to me. The classic hi John. Well, that's two syllables, but two monosyllabic words that people who were complaining that they couldn't distinguish us can now distinguish us. But I'm gonna play a game today and every now and then say your names and see if that helps people so that they stop hocking me a chynic about how I'm how people don't know who's talking. So.
Seth Mandel
Would you like us to adopt Accents, Would that make it easier?
Jon Podhoretz
I think we all have accents, so I, you know, but to my ear I don't think that's really much of a difficulty. You have a Jersey accent. Abe. Abe has a New York regional accent. I don't think I have much of an accent except sort of generic.
Unnamed Speaker
I love that everyone thinks they're the exception.
Jon Podhoretz
I am the total exception. I have the mid Atlantic John, the Missouri of the show, and Matt, of course, Virginia. He has the heavy southern accent cadences of Northern Virginia, shall we say of suburban, outside of Washington. Virginia. Okay. Anyway, look, so you know the great line of. Is it Harold McMillan's or Anthony Eden's, I can't remember. British post war leader. So what happens to your political ideas about political leadership to make them run aground? Events, dear boy, events. So guess what? There are two countries with nuclear weapons right next to each other that have been in a hostile relationship now for as long as Israel has been in existence, by the way, almost exactly as long as Israel's been in existence. That's India and Pakistan and they're now in a shooting war with, with each other. So while we talk about Iran and can Iran get a nuclear weapon, one of the reasons you don't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon is so that a country that it's hostile to would then feel the need to get a nuclear weapon. And we are now going to see play out on the world stage. What happens, I think for the first time besides the Cold War and U.S. and the Soviets, that we were not in a shooting war with Soviets who were not in our border, the two nuclear powers are at war with each other.
Abe Greenwald
Well, they haven't declared war yet. And there was in the late 1990s, there was similar tensions right around the time that India tested its nuclear device. Certainly a big important event as Harold McMillan and you suggest. The US seems to be kind of aloof, I'd say. I mean Marco Rubio has spoken to the, to the foreign ministers. They've said that they would like de escalation. That great word from the or not so great word from the Obama Biden years. But we haven't really said more than that. And I think that's because our position vis A vis these two powers has so radically changed in the 25 years since the last flare up and since they both became nuclear powers. For much of the Cold War and in the aftermath of the Cold War, America was allied with Pakistan. Pakistan had connections to the CIA. They were anti communist, they helped us supply the Mujahideen when the holy warriors were fighting the Soviet invasion and India was a non aligned nation. And as a non aligned nation, India was much more sympathetic to the Soviet Union and to socialist tyrannies throughout the world. But in the past 25 years, post 911 and really in the last decade or so, as a result of the rise of China, our alignment has changed and we are much more pro India now and much less supportive of Pakistan, which I think it's safe to say did not prove itself a reliable ally during the global war on terrorists. And as a result, I think we're leaning more closely toward India in this conflict. Whereas Pakistan, of course, as a result of our distancing, is aligning with China. So on the surface it seems like an age old conflict since the modern partition in the late 1940s between these two powers, one majority Hindu, the other Muslim. But in fact there's much larger kind of geopolitics at work. It's another facet of the American competition slash conflict with China, just as you can see the same paradigm imposed on what's happening in Ukraine.
Jon Podhoretz
So you raise an interesting historical discontinuity. And Pakistan was never nominally or on its face a friend or an ally of the United States. But it was very clear that not on its face, but sort of dug under a little bit pretty much through the 1990s and the aughts, including after 9 11, that Pakistan's political and intelligence leadership was behind the scenes wanting to maintain good relations with the United States as much as possible and to provide intelligence on the Taliban to help us with the. Even as elements of the government were protecting the Taliban and saving. This was a very complicated relationship. And there are countries in the world with whom we have had relationships this complicated. It's very much not part of the world anymore really, because so much more is on the surface. But you could say basically that gutter is now pretty much in the position that Pakistan was after 9 11, which is that gutter looks, if you look at gutter straight on. Qatar is an enemy of the United States. It supports our enemies. It is funding anti American activities inside the United States on college campuses. It is, you know, promoting a worldview through its supported media and all of that that is inimical to Western values, Western ideas and to the United States. And yet clearly the gutteries in the background provide deliverables to the United States government that we don't even know about. And they are the way in which we pass messages to bad actors that we don't want to deal with. Face to face and they have some sway over them and they can get them to back down at certain moments and, and, and have private concords that we don't want to make public. And that is, I think, increasingly an untenable way for the world. This is classic diplomacy that there are secret deals, secret entente, all of that. That's like classic 18th, 19th century European politics does not sit well with us now in a world in which every single person on earth can be a commentator on a social media platform about what they're seeing and what they're feeling. And Pakistan was in that place with the United States and it is no longer. And India, of course, is a country that we need as an economic bulwark against China. We, this is the oddity of the tariff regime, right, is that India is, though it's not, from what you can tell, stealing our intellectual property. India is the place to which our industrial heavy manufacturing, whatever has migrated in the last decade faster than China, which was, which was the story of the first two decades of the sort of the great Chinese change in the way it confronted economics in the West. And now India is making our shirts and making our ties and making all this stuff that supposedly we want to, we want to make now, but we're not hostile to them. Quite, quite the opposite like we are. Modi is a friend, is viewed and I think was viewed by the Biden administration as, as even though they don't like his populist politics and he's bad to minorities and is mean to Muslims, kind of like them and we're able to deal with them. And Trump clearly really likes him. And so we're in this very odd.
Seth Mandel
India is too big to fail, I think is the way American presidents tend to think about it. It's, you know, the, the largest democracy in the world. I don't use air quotes to make fun of it, but it's just, it's just considered too big to fail. It's a, it's, it's position between, you know, the, not between the west and China because it's, it's not, you know, it's not Turkey sitting on, you know, on the east west line, but it's, but its position there as a sort of hopefully a bulwark against, against the Pacific and an ally in that region and its sheer size and you know, its role in, in the global economy. It's just, I think presidents consider it too big to fail. And, and the, the Pakistan thing is, you know, we had, there's always been 2 Pakistan it's funny because Pakistan is really like the deep state that we've come to know. There's the isi, the Inter Services Agency, which itself kind of has two faces and the political leadership and the US used to have much more influence on the political leadership at a time when President Musharraf was in office. And it was through President Musharraf that we were, the Bush administration was able to start to send a Q Con on the run. A Q. Khan was the father of Pakistan's nuclear program and he was caught selling nuclear know how to North Korea, I believe Iran as well, although I'll have to double check on that. But he was basically turning into a, you know, a kind of nuclear mercenary. And we were able to go to, to President Musharraf and say, you know, we can't, we can't have this anymore. And so we've had like this on and off relationship with them. Musharraf, by the way, once yelled at me at a press conference because he was going on an anti American tear and blaming America for all the problems with their relationship. And I asked him if he has any, he and Pakistan have any blame at all or any responsibility for, for the relationship itself. And he kind of blew his top. So we went from this period where Musharraf was like, yeah, we'll help you round up our renegades to how dare you suggest that America is anything other than an evil force and blah blah.
Unnamed Speaker
Blah, not only to that. We went from we'll help you round up our renegades to this is where Osama Bin Laden will end up residing, don't forget in Abbottabad.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah, and I think that was the real break when the killing of bin Laden in 2011 where Obama did not inform the Pakistanis of the mission at all. And we went in and we took him out. Basile Team 6 and that was it. And so the past decade plus, I think America has just kind of looked at Pakistan as untrustworthy and not really worth investing much time or effort in. And the result is that Pakistan has become closer to China. You know, it's an interesting moment here. In some ways what's been happening is vaguely resembles the conflict between Israel and Iran in this sense which was, you know, you have these proxy forces that attack in Kashmir, have this massacre of Hindus, a really despicable act. And then you have this, you know, how are we going to retaliate in this case India? India's had been building up pressure, the escalatory ladder, economic sanctions, depriving certain water flows into Pakistan and then finally saying that it was going to conduct some military strikes that happened. So that's again a similar kind of to, you know, Iran was lobbing missiles and directly attacking Israel for the first time. Then it was a question of how Israel would respond. What's fascinating about these strikes that finally happened yesterday from India into Pakistan is that they went far deeper into Pakistan than I think most people were expecting. And they also killed more people than most were expecting. And so we have to see how Pakistan responds. But for now, it seems like they're kind of, they're trying to do this tit for tat modulation. Very risky when you have two nuclear powers doing this. But it's not broken out into full scale war. And I think this is an opportunity for our Secretary of State who also holds three other jobs, or our special envoy who crisscrosses the Eurasian periphery to maybe say, hey, look, we want to help you guys calm down and de escalate so we don't have another hot war in this very inflamed world.
Jon Podhoretz
You know, the reason I brought up the Harold macmillan quote is that obviously the idea was that these first two weeks of May were going to be for the Trump administration an effort to advance its diplomatic efforts in the Middle east in some very significant way. Which is what? Partially what the outreach toward Iran on some kind of a nuclear deal was part of, along with the question of whether or not they could extend the Abraham Accords. Trump saying yesterday that he is going.
Matthew Continetti
To make an announcement in the next.
Jon Podhoretz
Couple of days that will shake the world. We have no idea what he's referring to, but it will literally shake the world. So people think, oh, well, that means the Saudis are going to normalize with, with Israel or Iran is going to give up its nuclear program entirely or some major thing.
Seth Mandel
That's why he's calling it this Gulf of Arabia. Maybe that was the concession. You recognize Israel and we'll call it the Arabian Gulf again.
Jon Podhoretz
Yes. Which is, by the way, I don't know, it should be called Iraq. I don't know why it's. Why are any of these things called anything? That's what I want to know. Who named the Indian Ocean the Indian Ocean? Why isn't it the more time. Why isn't it the Mauritius ocean? You know, why isn't the Australian ocean? I don't understand. Anyway, that's what the Gulf of America thinks are brought up is who, who did you know, who said this was the Atlantic? Who said that was the specific. It is a Sort of an interesting question. Was it like, was it a mapmaker in 1750? And that's just what happened. But reason I'm bringing this up is planning. Like, this is, you know, man plans. And God laughs. Trump is. Or Trump and his people are maybe thinking they're setting up a chessboard in which they can, you know, declare victory, and then out from the corner of the board come, you know, the. The. The Indians move their rook, you know, and then now what? Now what happens? Something very major might be going on that will overshadow whatever it is that they want to do. Just as the Houthis nearly hitting Ben Gurion Airport took Israel on a total, you know, huge left turn away from what they were focusing on, which is, how do we end this in Gaza and try to get the hostages home and finish it off? Suddenly it's like, well, you know, what? Now we've been dealing with the Hamas, we've been dealing with Hezbollah in the north, and we've been swatting away the Houthis. And now the Houthis just did something very, very, very aggressive and very frightening and very serious. And so we got to take our eye off that ball while we're calling up thousands of reservists for a push into Gaza that we've already said we're going to do until Trump leaves the region at the end of next week. And now they had to go and blow up the port and the airport in Sana'a and go from there. Events, change the facts on the ground. And this is the joke of anybody who's ever worked at a White House is they announced that next week is infrastructure week, and then there's a hurricane. And guess what? You know, your. Your rollout of the seven policies that you're going to do every single day to push that you really have an issue on infrastructure, has to be delayed three months because you don't get to set the world agenda that easily.
Unnamed Speaker
It's also, you know, a reminder about the region. I mean, it's amazing that we've been dealing with Islamist terrorism in the region for this long. You can always, you know, something happens with Israel, in this case, something very big. And everyone focuses on Israel and thinks that that's sort of the only important aspect of the Middle east and of the region. And then you can always count on something happening, you know, terrorists from Pakistan or Pakistan itself or something to divert people's attention and to remind the world that this is a. This is a very rough neighborhood that is still completely overrun with Islamist terrorism.
Jon Podhoretz
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Abe Greenwald
I came across a line escapes me where I saw it, but it was part of a. Oh, I think it might have been Richard Haass's column on Trump foreign policy. And it was referring, referring to the new Israel plan in Gaza and the announcement that Israel would take over the entirety of the strip beginning next week. And Haas or whoever was said, you know, by doing this Israel risks having a forever war. And I just laughed because Israel's been in a forever war since 1948, since independence it was declared independent. You know, its enemies have been seeking to destroy it ever since. This is just what it means to be Israeli. You have to constantly face down these threats.
Seth Mandel
Hamas isn't offering a five year chance.
Abe Greenwald
And it's the same thing. It's like remember after 9 11, some people in our audience may not have been born then, but after 9 11, you know, Osama bin Laden, when he finally released the videotape, taking credit or accepting responsibility for the attacks on the World Trade center and Pentagon, he started referring to Al Andalus, you know, the Islamic conquest of Spain from the 13th century and then finally ejected. You know, Muslims were ejected from Spain in 1492, the Reconquista in the 15th century. But this is present history to Islamic terrorists. This is how they live. And they don't see any humanity in the infidel. Right. So that's. You're absolutely right, Abe. That's just what that is, the forever war, sorry to say, you know, and.
Jon Podhoretz
You know, and in the United states terms it's 35 years of a direct war between US and Islamist terrorists. Andy McCarthy in his book Willful Blindness, which we excerpted when it came out I think in 2009, dates the Islamist war against the United States to the assassination of Mayor Kahane in a hotel room in New York City in 1990, I believe at the, I think the Roger Smith Hotel on Lexington Avenue and 48th street where, where he was killed. Khan of course, a radical Israeli political figure, born and raised in Brooklyn, the founder of the Jewish Defense League a, a. A self defense organization that many people thought tipped into vigilantism and sort of domestic terrorism moved to Israel, was a voice for forcible transfer of. Of Arab populations out of. Out of the state of Israel, assassinated by Islamists. And this is the moment at which Andy says the Islamists declare war on the United States. And it was our decision, our fateful decision until after 911 and the 11 years that followed to treat this as a domestic law enforcement problem, assigning it to the FBI and our court system, including the bombing of the World Trades, the first bombing of the World Trade center in 1993 led by the Blind Sheikh. And Andy knows about this because he was the, he was on the case. Yeah, in the Blind shakes trial in 1996 and onward. And his point in the book is that he should never have been involved, nor should the justice system. The thing to have been done there is to go after the financial and sort and political and into and intelligence operatives outside the United States who had, who had activated this plan, that this was a war against the United States by foreign entities and that it was for the United States military and its intelligence services to deal with, not our, our, our justice system, which as we're seeing right now, complicates matters like dealing with people that we think domestically are bad actors who should not be inside the United States. Once you put those things into the justice system, the justice system's logic and its systems take over.
Abe Greenwald
You remind me of a Weekly standard cover from the two from 2005 which showed an image from Camp X Ray Gitmo, the terrorist holding cells. And the headline was Due Due process. Everybody's new favorite word, due process for terrorists. Question mark. And of course the rule of headlines is whenever you see a question mark in a headline, the answer is inevitably no. So yes, we were arguing against due process for terrorists many, many decades ago before it's come up again in a slightly different context.
Jon Podhoretz
And that was of course literally why Guantanamo Bay was used for this purpose, which is that we took into custody after 911 hundreds of actors on the battlefield in Pakistan, in Afghanistan, really, who were not themselves repatriatable to their own home countries, nor would we have wanted them to be, because they would have just been let out to do this again. But we did not want to bring them onto the shores of the United States because once they touched American soil, they would then have the benefit of due process rather than being treated as prisoners of war taken on the battlefield who have a different kind of status and standing. And this fight went on throughout the 2000s of people saying, well, we can't treat these people this way in Guantanamo Bay. And now we again have a version of this with Mandawi and Khalil and others who we would wish to treat not as people with full access to the full rights of American citizenship, but nonetheless, this is the way this is heading.
Abe Greenwald
Can I make a point about India and Pakistan that might tee up our discussion of the other foreign policy news of yesterday? And that is, you know, think about, okay, what is American First, America first foreign policy look like? Well, we're kind of seeing it in action because, you know, sure, America's aligned with India, it's kind of dealigned with Pakistan, but we have no treaty relationships that commit us to the defense of either country. We have, you know, economic and we have diasporic ties to both countries. But it's. They're going. Them going up this escalatory ladder is concerning, for sure, but it doesn't. It's not directly affecting American military interests, for example. And so I think that helps to explain kind of the aloof nature of the administration's response, where, yeah, we want things to calm down, but it's not like Secretary Rubio's engaging in shuttle diplomacy and heading right to Delhi and then going to Islamabad and back and forth until you get an agreement like Henry Kissinger, the last person to have both Secretary of State and national security in his bio, would do, would have done. And that's, I think, also reminiscent of President Trump's announcement in the middle of his meeting with the new Canadian prime minister yesterday that we're done fighting the Houthis. Right? We're done. The Houthis have said they've stopped, they're not going to fire at us anymore. President Trump said yesterday, and so we're not going to fire at them. And all over. And this announcement, which I know, John, you, you have a theory that you're going to explain in this moment, but this announcement took the world by surprise for sure. It also took Israel by surprise because it happened on the very day that Israel destroyed, as we've mentioned, Yemen's airport and its port. And port. Right, yeah, they've attacked the port before, but, yeah, they did. The port and the airport is inoperable. And Trump's announcement doesn't seem to have included Israel. Right. It was about us and the Houthis. It wasn't about the Houthis. And Israel wasn't even necessarily about the Houthis in Europe. Now, a subsequent statement by Trump, because, of course, we have to follow every single thing he says throughout the day to kind of get a sense of where policy is, seems to have said that in his mind, this deal or agreement also encompasses Israel and Europe. But it's unclear nonetheless. What is clear is he just wants. That's all he. All he cares about is America. Right? Is it affecting America? Do we do this? Are our ships being attacked? All right, then we'll fight the Houthis. And then if they tell the Omanis that they don't want to fight us anymore, fine, we're done with it.
Jon Podhoretz
Right.
Abe Greenwald
And the same with India and Pakistan. Are we really infected? If India and Pakistan go to war, you know, it will be bad. But we don't have, like I said, we don't have any treaty obligations. It's on the other side of the planet. We're not in Afghanistan anymore. So you kind of have this kind of.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Abe Greenwald
We hope you both calm down.
Jon Podhoretz
So the best reading of this is that Israel destroyed the airport and the port in one fell swoop. And the Houthis said, okay, our efforts to interrupt the shipping lanes were giving up. So Israel has now saved the west and Western shipping from the Houthis just in time for all of Western shipping to end because of the tariffs. Since we hear that now, most of the ports on the west coast have basically gone dry and aren't.
Abe Greenwald
That's a different direction, John.
Jon Podhoretz
I know. Okay, so we're told that. We're told that in the next two or three weeks, the stuff this ship, that the, the shipping containers are not to be arriving on the east coast ports either. But let's just say I would like to know whether Western Europe is now going to stand up and thank Israel for having taken care of the Houthi shipping lanes issue, which of course has bedeviled all of international commerce because of their piracy in, in the most trafficked area practically in the world for international containerized cargo shipping, if we're to take them at their word that they're giving up. So it wasn't the Two months of American strikes or three months of American strikes. It was one Israeli. You know what? No. No way. No more. Okay? You're done. We are frying your. We are destroying your entire infrastructure by which you are getting stuff in from Iran, by the way. That's why it's important that they hit the port as well as the airport, that they're getting stuff. Their stuff has been destroyed. They got control of the airport. They have the ports. How are they going to get more material to fire at Israel or to give to the, to the pirates or stuff like that? So Israel has now saved the entire infrastructure of the West's economy. And I'm betting we're not going to hear a lot of thanks from that front if we're to take this seriously. What they said, I don't maybe a.
Seth Mandel
UN resolution or two, but it might go in the opposite direction.
Jon Podhoretz
I am extraordinarily skeptical. This is what Maz referring to that in fact the Houthis called us and said we're done. Because the Houthis haven't said it and no one said it and no one reported it and nobody seemed to know about it but Trump. And now that now there's some statement from. There was some statement from Oman saying that's what the Houthis told us, but who the hell knows? And of course, what Steve Witkoff, who was sworn in as envoy, didn't know that he had to be. You know, there was a swearing in ceremony for this job, which is interesting. So he was sworn into a job that didn't exist before and had a nice scene in the Oval Office with his family, one of his sons also having been appointed to the Holocaust Museum Council, not previously having had anything whatsoever to do with issues relating to Israel, Judaism or the Holocaust. Nonetheless, mazel tov to the Witkoff family on its dual appointments to important jobs in the US Government. Anyway, Steve Witkoff is trying to go to Iran and do some Hail Mary deal of some sort, and this complicates matters. So if they could just say, you know what, the Houthis are off the table. We don't have to go to Iran. The Houthis are off the table. I'm not talking to Iran about the Houthis. Now we can just focus on the nuclear deal and maybe that's what he sold Trump on. Who knows? Who knows who's doing what.
Abe Greenwald
I just, I just want to read you what this is. The Times of Israel headline reports Iran pressed Houthis into truce with the US to build momentum in nuclear talks. And this report in the TOI leans on reporting from the New York Times. Two Iranian officials, one from the Foreign Ministry and the other from the Revolutionary Guards, said that Iran has persuaded the Houthis to stop their attacks on US Assets as part as part of the Omani mediation efforts, the New York Times reported. Of course, the Times has great, great sources in the irgc, cnn. CNN cited this report continues. CNN cited people familiar with the matter as saying Trump's special envoy, Steve Wykoff had worked with the Omanis over the past week to broker the US Houthis ceasefire. The sources said the ceasefire was also meant to help build momentum in the Iran nuclear talks, which Wykoff has also been leading on behalf of the Trump administration. Now. So there are a couple ways to look at this. You can look at it like you say ja, which is just Trump heard something and this report the reality of Israel's destruction of the port and the airport and said, you know, the Houthis have said stop. The other way is to read this story that I just recited as factually accurate and to say that Iran, in order to get the talks going again with the United States on the nuclear issue, has decided to quiet down the Houthis because this would help Iran get a potential deal which helps Iran sustain its regime, which is the central goal of the Iranian regime. And then the third way to look at it is the administration personnel who are heavily interested in American disengagement from the Middle east and a distancing of Americans relationship with Israel are planting these stories in order to take credit for whatever is going on here. So we just don't know. Right. Any one of these interpretations could be correct. And I would add that just as we woke up this morning today, there was news that after the announcement had been made, there was a Houthi projectile fired at I think the Truman, which is one of the carriers that are that's in the Red Sea right now. And we lost another F18 hornet. We don't quite know all the details why, but that's two so it could that would suggest your first reading, which is that this is just a Philip, you know, is is the right one. But I worry about the third reading, which is that the people, folks in the administration who want America out of the Middle east and want America distanced from Israel got a little bit worried over the past couple of days because of Rubio's appointment to nsa, because of Trump's statement at Meet the on Meet the Press that he wants the full, full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. And, and so they worked with their friends, the Omanis, to say, oh, no, no, look, everything's going fine. We're not going to, we don't have to fight the Houthis anymore, and let's get these negotiations back on trap so we can get a deal. In the kind of the court politics of the Trump administration, you really can't discount any possibility.
Jon Podhoretz
So what we have here is the choose your own adventure foreign policy. So you've laid out three. There are probably six or seven other iterations of whatever this is, including my own, which is that Trump made it up and that it's all been backed and filled, because he would, he doesn't. He wants Witkoff to have a free shot at a negotiation with Iran over the weekend that doesn't involve saying, okay, look, the first thing we have to do is get you to stop, you know, you gotta stop the Houthis. Like we, that, that's thing number one. And until you say that, I don't know if we can go forward. He's unilaterally declared that the Houthi war is over. So now they can just move to the main topic at hand. So that is in his interest, or in the interest not only of the forces that you're mentioning, the restrainers or the, you know, the anti neocons or whatever you want to call them, but also his final effort to make a deal. Right? And he's being the, he's being the bad cop, saying, no enrichment, no nothing. You don't make a deal with us. We're going to unleash the Israelis and we might unleash ourselves, and then Wikoff gets to go and be the good cop. What role Rubio is, is playing here? Again, very unclear. Everything is unclear. Maybe this is nine dimensional chess. It looks like 52 pickup to me. Or, or the, or looks a lot.
Seth Mandel
Like the, looks like the Obama administration again, because the, one of the main critic, not one of the, one of the criticisms of the, of the Iran nuclear deal. The, the first time around was that it excluded essentially all of Iran's troublemaking around the region. That there was no, you know, we weren't going to ask Iran to reign it in around the region. And so the terrorism was going to continue and, and all that. And this, this just, it sounds a lot like when the Obama administration kind of sold Syria down the river and said, you know, we have to have a mono focus on the nuclear deal because there's no way to get a deal based on everything. In the world and all of Iran's activity and, and all this stuff and the nuclear thing is the most important. And it sounds like, it sounds like volunteering to take things off the menu for Iran.
Jon Podhoretz
Well, go ahead.
Unnamed Speaker
I just want to say, you know, the thing about Iran is that the regime is up to so many bad things that it has so many options to play with and string the US Along. You know, it can, you know, if, if it looks like negotiations are coming to an end, they can just say, oh well look, we just took the, the Houthis off the table for you so you know, come back. And there was a lot of that too the first time round, you know, the stringing the US along. Stringing along, stringing along. Because the time is definitely, especially right now with their defenses down. Time is definitely the Iranians friend here.
Jon Podhoretz
I'm glad Seth, you brought up the monocausal efforts in 2013-2015 because of course we don't even spend any time blaming the Obama administration for the crisis in Europe that was fomented by the fact that we did cut Syria off or that we decided not to. We decided to say that we were dealing with Iran exclusive of its behavior and propping up the forces that was propping up in Syria, leading to the genocidal or self genocidal war in Syria, leading to the migrant crisis that has now revolutionized and dominated European politics for, you know, a decade. And you know, the Obama administration doesn't get enough blame for that. So let's, let's add that to the, you know, the historical indictment of the Obama administration. The one thing the Obama administration had, it's not praiseworthy, but it is notable, is that they sang, were singing from the same hymnal the minute that they decided they wanted this deal. It was a two year negotiation. And it's not like we heard people in the Pentagon are really worried about this deal.
Matthew Continetti
They don't like it, they don't think.
Jon Podhoretz
This is going in the right direction or there are voices on the National Security Council that are very concerned about this. It was clear the Obama administration was going to do everything that it possibly.
Matthew Continetti
Could to get to the jcpoa.
Jon Podhoretz
And everybody was on board with Ben Rhodes pressing the button and getting all of his 27 year old know nothings in the national security reporting industry to say whatever it is and say whatever he needed them to say at any given moment in that idiot echo chamber that David Samuels wrote about so brilliantly in the New York Times back in 2014, 2015. What's different here is that it's a cacophony. Like we got Trump saying no enrichment. We got Wyckoff saying, yeah, maybe a little enrichment. We got Rubio saying not only no enrichment, but they'll do it the same way everybody else does. You want uranium for a civilian nuclear program, you're going to go buy it. We were buying it, our reactors were buying it from Russia until, until we put sanctions on Russia a year, a year and a half ago. Like you'll do it the same way everybody else does it. You don't need to, you don't need to create your own uranium. There doesn't have to be a domestic uranium producing industry inside Iran for you to have a civilian nuclear reactor, which we all know you don't need anyway because you've got oil gushing out of the ground. What do you need a civilian nuclear reactor for? So the Obamaans were very disciplined. And of course the Trump administration is the opposite of discipline, which then creates this world of uncertainty that provides hope. Abe, you texted us yesterday, right? Hope, depending on who you are. Abe's like, tell me not to believe. I don't wanna, I wanna remain. I don't want my heart to commit itself to the idea that Trump is the hardliner in the administration on Iran. Cuz it's too much to hope for that he's the guy who is gonna keep them on the, on the tough path. I just, and I'm like, don't believe it. And you're like, okay, I'm going to try not to believe it. But the fact that you can at any given moment think that Trump is the guy who is going to keep Steve Witkoff from selling Israel down the river and the Saudis and everybody down the river by allowing Iran to have a nuclear program, or you know, that he, he's the guy who'll stop him, or that he's the guy who'll be like, I just want this deal so much. That would be so great. I get an Iran nuclear deal, the Israelis take over Gaza, we get some kind of normalization with the Saudis. I'm like the new master of the Middle east map. By the way, just to make it clear, if there is a nuclear deal with Iran, there will be no normalization between the Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia work together against Iran. But if the United States capitulates to Iran, again, the idea that we are going to play a role in creating a tripartite alliance between the U.S. israel and Saudi Arabia, when Saudi Arabia will now think that the United States does not have its best interest at heart and is negotiating against the existential threat posed to it by Iran having a nuclear weapon. We always talk about Israel's existential threat from Iran because Iran talks about the existential threat. The Saudis feel it. The Iranians would like to have control of Mecca. They would like to have control of the holy sites of Islam for Shia Islam as opposed to Sunni Islam. Who knows what lengths they're willing to go to for that Anyway, So in.
Seth Mandel
This case, we have the things that the Saudis would need if that happened, would also make deal with Israel harder.
Jon Podhoretz
Right.
Seth Mandel
Because the Saudis would want their, a program of their own. The Saudis would want certain weapon advanced weaponries and defense guarantees of their own. The sort of thing that has always made Israel nervous because Israel needs to maintain its qualitative military edge over the, its Arab neighbors. So it's a, it's the cascade effect where it's almost impossible to have a deal afterwards because you'd have, the Saudis would have to turn into something that couldn't have that deal with Israel.
Abe Greenwald
I mean, if this is the case, I'm a little bit stumped as to why we're not hearing more underground Saudi opposition to the negotiations taking place. I'm not so sure Saudi Arabia is totally against some type of nuclear deal with Iran.
Jon Podhoretz
Well, that would be new.
Abe Greenwald
Well, remember, remember China during the Biden administration, China brokered that, you know, detente between Saudi and Iran. Right. And mbs, I think he's kind of all over the place now. And so, and remember, Trump is going to the region next week and really at the end of this week, I think, and he's not going to Israel. And so, you know, when I'm looking at this foreign policy emerge, I'm not saying that Donald Trump is not pro Israel, but I'm saying that in the first hundred days of the Trump administration, you see actually a more typically Republican foreign policy toward the Middle East. Right.
Jon Podhoretz
It's a more Arabist like yes, class Republican.
Abe Greenwald
Right. It's more 70s Republican Arabist kind of in this, in this case the Gulf east. Right. The deep, deep business ties now between the President, the President's family, his envoy, his envoy's family, and the Gulf states, the Gulf principalities. And so it's, I don't know, I don't know where we're headed. You know, I mean, it's, it's, I don't think it's necessarily throwing Israel totally off the bus. Right. In the same way that, you know, H.W. bush and Jim Baker F the Jews. Did you know?
Jon Podhoretz
In 1981.
Abe Greenwald
In 1991. But it's not Trump won. That's not Trump won.
Jon Podhoretz
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Jon Podhoretz
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With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com commentary that's shopify.com commentary shopify.com commentary the reason for the Israeli Saudi Entente private Entente that that changed the world, right in the last decade was the jcpoa. So if, if Mohammed bin Salman, whom you refer, who is essentially the, the dictator of Saudi Arabia, if he has changed his mind about that or thinks this is something that he can live with or work with or work around or something like that, that's really a very big, that's a very, that's a very big change. That's an epochal change of its own. And he is flighty and he does have his own gigantic and very fanciful ideas about transforming Saudi Arabia that require a certain level of peace and stability for him domestically. And if somehow Iran can be made to stay out of his affairs, it will make it more possible for him to build his 75 mile long, 2 mile deep city. That is his goal for the Saudi future, that would be pretty.
Seth Mandel
But the nukes were the line in that, weren't they? I mean, I think that the Saudis are comfortable with some sort of detente with Iran, shy of making Iran a nuclear power. Right? That's, that's the difference is Saudi once The, once the Iran's have nuclear, have nukes, there's nothing, nothing matters anymore. Nothing that's said between the two countries, no deal that's signed matters anymore. Iran will do whatever it wants and no one will stop it.
Jon Podhoretz
Saudi Arabia will have to get a nuclear weapon. If Iran gets a nuclear weapon. That's, that's, that's the, that's the thing. That was the whole reason why beginning in the mid 2000s, people like my father and others were saying, bomb Iran now, destroy its nascent nuclear program. Because the issue here is not just that if they get a weapon, they're an existential threat to Israel, it's that there will be a nuclear arms race in the Middle east and Mohammed bin Salman is in control of Saudi Arabia. But of course, there is a very significant religious force in Wahhabi Islam that. So I guess what I'm Take the country over and run it according to Wahhabist principles that he is moving away from.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
And that would include, you know, I guess what I'm saying is do you want, do you want the Muslim Brotherhood, except worse, to have a nuclear weapon? That's why. No, that's why we weren't, you know.
Abe Greenwald
Pakistan has a nuclear weapon and that's the birthplace of the Taliban.
Jon Podhoretz
Right.
Abe Greenwald
And that's why we should be concerned about what's happening between India and Pakistan.
Jon Podhoretz
Right.
Abe Greenwald
But I mean, I guess what I'm arguing is if, and this is all hypothetical and flights of fancy on a Wednesday morning, but if there is, say, you know, the white smoke comes from, you know, Persepolis and all of a sudden there's a nuclear agreement and Trump announces, you know what, my buddy Steve Witkoff got the Iranians to say that they're not going to do any more enrichment and we'll provide them the nuclear fuel and as a result, we'll relieve some of the sanctions and everything's hunky dory and America first and we don't have to worry about the Middle east anymore. I'm not so sure Saudi Arabia is going to leap from that to say, well, it's time to get a nuclear weapon. Right.
Jon Podhoretz
Well, they don't have to do it next week.
Abe Greenwald
The whole point, the whole point for Iran is to get a deal to just kick the can down the road and still maintain the infrastructure that would allow them to weaponize and they can continue their ballistic missile program, which they call their space program. And that is just kind of this thing they have in reserve. Right. That they can always wield down the road. So that's why I think that I'm looking at this trip and I'm saying this is not the trip that Trump took last time. Right. Trump went to Saudi and then he went to Israel. Not doing that this time. He's just going to Saudi.
Jon Podhoretz
Is he going to the orb? I hope I needs to go visit.
Abe Greenwald
He needs to return to the orb.
Jon Podhoretz
We, we still don't know what the orb do, people.
Abe Greenwald
We know what the orb did. The orb gave him the ability to come back in the amazing comeback of 2024.
Jon Podhoretz
Right. People remember the orb. The orb.
Seth Mandel
The orb is obviously the.
Jon Podhoretz
Just Google Trump orb, Saudi Arabia. Because you will see an image out of a Marvel movie that continues to be in, has gone unexplained now for eight years and I think will go unexplained forever. But they were all.
Seth Mandel
Did you stay for the end credits scene? Because I think that's the end credits.
Jon Podhoretz
Scene has yet to be. They haven't produced the end credits scene, by the way, just the end credits.
Abe Greenwald
Scene was Mike Pence meeting with Liz Cheney just having an innocent sounding conversation. But little did we know that in the twist, four years later things would be very different.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Seth Mandel
And just to Matt's point, by the way, about four weeks ago the US Energy Department renewed its talks with Saudi Arabia apparently over sharing nuclear technology and opening a pathway to a civilian nuclear programs. I think that, I think the Saudis are nudging Trump along the way. You know, each time it seems like maybe Witkoff is going to, you know, hand the shop over to the Iranians. The Saudis sort of poke Trump with what John said before, which is, well, you know, who else might need some nuclear technology if all, you know, it's a kind of subtle reminder. But I think the Saudis want that reminder through. They want, they want the United States to remember at all times that they're going to ask for nuclear concessions of some sort the further along it goes with Iran.
Jon Podhoretz
And of course Israel is now facing this question of what it's going to do in the final push in Gaza. Trump announced yesterday that he has been told that There are only 21 surviving hostages in Gaza, which is three fewer than the Israelis have been saying publicly. This has caused a controversy inside Israel. People saying the families have not been informed of this. I don't believe that. I think the families are told a lot of stuff that we don't know.
Matthew Continetti
That the families are being told.
Jon Podhoretz
And, and I don't think anything is being kept from anybody. But I again, you would like, you you labor to figure out if there is an ulterior motive in making such an announcement or, you know, whether Trump is just blurting stuff out as he blurts it out that have, you know, gigantic consequences outside the Oval Office that he doesn't even care about. By the way, did you see the pictures when Carney was there yesterday at that. We don't even have to go into this at that hilarious half an hour session about the, you know, no, we're not going to be the 51st day anymore. You see that Trump is already, they're already gilding the Oval Office. It's got some, got some gold leaf on the.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah, they've been doing that for a while. Yeah, right.
Jon Podhoretz
Okay, so this is what's interesting to me. So, okay, he can do whatever he wants. He lives there for the. Strip it down. We have a house for the President and the name of that house is the White House. It's not the palace. It's not the Presidential Palace. It's not the presidential. The name in classic American Puritan, you know, unpretentious, was to say the President of the United States lives in a White House in the middle of Washington. And looking at a gilded version of the Oval Office is very aesthetically discomforting to me. And I bring this up only to say that, as I say, it's Trump's place for four years. He can redecorate it as he wishes. But the plainness of the White House is a symbol of America stripping itself of European aristocracy, you know, classical grandeur, to be modest, dress modestly, function modestly, and to be no higher in standing than the ordinary person who might also have a White House in his, you know, have a house that's painted white, you know, in his home in Pennsylvania or in Georgia or wherever.
Unnamed Speaker
I think it's a really interesting point just because the, if you ever go to, like, where. Not even, not even just where leadership in, like, authoritarian countries, but not even just where they reside, but where they work.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Unnamed Speaker
The more opulent the setting, the less legitimate the government is. So there's a lot to what you're saying.
Seth Mandel
And Truman had to, you know, Truman had to remake the White House because a piano started falling through the floor in the White House. Right. Margaret, Truman's piano actually sank and a leg of the piano broke through the floor.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Seth Mandel
And the people underneath were, were had a reasonable fear of being in, in like a Bugs Bunny cartoon with an Acme piano about to fall on their head. Like it, it had gotten, you know, it wasn't like he came in and said, you know, we need some, we need to spruce this place up. It was like there are pianos falling through the floor and you know, there were famously like rats.
Abe Greenwald
It's really old things. Yeah, it's really old. It's been in disrepair for a while. Remember when Obama was there, they had this problem with flies.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Abe Greenwald
And Trump had to kind of take care of that during his first term. It's one reason why Trump spent a lot. Not the only reason, but among the reasons Trump spent a lot of time at Mar A Lago was the White House was just not in very good shape during his first term. I think it's improved because of some of the things Trump did during his first term. And I have to say, yeah, the office is the office, anyone's office is. The people watching on our YouTube channel can see my home office. They can see John's office. Offices are reflections of the occupant's personality. And so this Oval Office is definitely a reflection of the current occupants personality. There's no question in a way that it really wasn't the first term. But some of the other improvements that he's making or changes that he's making in the White House seem to be completely logical. The whole, you know, the New York Times first reported earlier in the term about how, you know, Trump is going to pave over the Rose Garden. Right. When in fact what is happening is they're laying down a hard stone surface on the lawn, not on any of the roses on the lawn, so that they can have more events there. Because just even Trump's opponents concede that the ground in the Rose Garden becomes very muddy and hard to walk on. And that's where reason is not very use. So that to me seems completely reasonable. The other thing that he's doing, he said he told Kristen Welker over the weekend that he will be paying for a ballroom to be added to essentially the East Wing, near the east wing. And again, when that's reported, the resistance, they all go, oh my God, he's turning the White House into Mar A Lago. But as he pointed out in the interview, if you listened, they do what they don't have a ballroom. And so what that means is when they have the huge state dinners, they spend all this money on this tent system. And in fact, I've seen it. I happen to be driving to a Wizards game on the night that Biden held this huge goodbye party for all of his administration. And you could see from Constitution Avenue this remarkable tent system. You Know that they had built up in the lawn. So it kind of makes sense to have a permanent structure there. Right, right.
Seth Mandel
And if you've gone through that security, if you've gone through the security in that tent system, it is a wild situation because you are. You start outside on a line, and then you go into a tent with heaters and go through some sort of security and get your, you know, you have your name checked, and then you go outside again, and then you go through these perpendicular tents that are set up. It's like Tetris, but tents. And you go through, and then you go outside, and then you go inside. And it all has to do that in the winter. It's, you know, it's 12 degrees, and then you're in a tent with super heaters, and then it's 12, 12 degrees again. It's like you were traumatized when you.
Jon Podhoretz
Went through this very traumatizing experience.
Seth Mandel
It's just w. It's wild to have this, like, you know, we'll set up some tense situation.
Jon Podhoretz
People should know. You're talking about how the White House is in bad shape because it's 200 years old. Right. It was rebuilt after it was set on fire during the War of 1812. So it's 200 years old, basically.
Seth Mandel
The house, which we haven't forgotten. Mark Carney.
Jon Podhoretz
Good point. Commonwealth. Very bad. Boo. Don't. Don't give me the Commonwealth. We're better than that.
Abe Greenwald
It was British. The British burned down the White House.
Jon Podhoretz
But Commonwealth, Yeah, okay, Right. Canada's still in the Commonwealth. Anyway. It's a. It's not a grand residence. I mean, that is, by the way, nor is 10 Downing street either. Right. Which is like, right. Sitting there smack dab in the middle of London. But it is not with a cat on stoop. Right. It is not a grand residence.
Abe Greenwald
I believe that when it was built, it was the largest residence in the United States.
Jon Podhoretz
But now, you know, like.
Abe Greenwald
But your whole point is that this is supposed to mention. It's supposed to be republican simplicity. But I think it's interesting to note that when they built it, yeah, it was pretty big. It is still. It's still big. People don't quite comprehend it. Right. And it is beautiful. I mean, the rooms, the East Room, I mean.
Jon Podhoretz
No, no, no. It's big. But when I work, when I worked there, which was like, almost 40 years ago now, I was startled by how it did not conform with my pop culture sense of what the White House would have been like. It did not feel like, you know, this kind of end. The endless corridors of this or that or the other thing, you know.
Abe Greenwald
Right.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Abe Greenwald
And the OEOB and the New Executive Office Building. Right.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah. And the Treasury Department, which is next door and was built around the same time, is vastly grander.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
Than the White House in terms of scale. If you want to sort of feel, you know, a building that is. Echoes with its own importance, that would sort of be the Department of the treasury next door. Not, not, not the White House. Anyway, I'm just struck because aside from Trump's absolutely horrendous taste, which he has, and the way that the, that gilding looks on the. Behind him, it's gross and it looks.
Abe Greenwald
Like a stupid apartment. I'm guessing you don't like the idea of the, the two ten story flag poles that he's putting in. Look, everything can be able to see the flags from. You know, what's interesting about that is there's been no progress on it since he made that announcement a couple weeks ago. It's interesting. One reason you wouldn't have the 10 story flag poles, it seems to me, is people don't like making the White House too visible from the sky.
Jon Podhoretz
Right.
Abe Greenwald
You know.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah.
Abe Greenwald
I mean, it is just a case that actually you can only get a very good view of the White House when you're directly in front of it.
Matthew Continetti
That is true.
Jon Podhoretz
And it's very, very hard. It is logistically, in the area around the White House.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
It is very hard to get a view from above. I mean, I think the Hay Adams hotel, which is two blocks north.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
On 16th Street.
Abe Greenwald
You have a nice.
Jon Podhoretz
You can kind of get a view of the White House, but otherwise.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah. So part of me wonders whether someone.
Jon Podhoretz
Said, don't do that.
Abe Greenwald
Security. The security issues, sir. Of course, he is very concerned about security having been almost assassinated twice in the last year.
Jon Podhoretz
Yes. And I want to point out that, Matt, you were very upset last week. We had this conversation about the White House Correspondents Dinner.
Abe Greenwald
Yes.
Jon Podhoretz
And how. How it did not provide an award to the. Doug Mills, the New York Times photographer.
Abe Greenwald
Well, no, to the. To the AP photographer.
Jon Podhoretz
Right.
Abe Greenwald
Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
So the AP photographer didn't win this time, but Doug Mills, who took another one of the pictures of the.
Abe Greenwald
After the one where you can see the bullet.
Jon Podhoretz
Right. Did win the Pulitzer. Although the Pulitzer. The Pulitzers were a shocking and horrifying disgrace. At least two winners of the Pulitzers being absolute Hamas propagandists. Full stop, full bore. No. No exceptions. Shocking, but not really shocking. And also the Pulitzer means about 75% less of what it meant when I was a younger journalist when it really was the career making thing that you got and then you had it and then you would never get fired and people would come after you would. You could, like, like Nicole Hannah Jones. You would win it. And then you know what? You never wrote again. And you were still paid your full salary by your.
Seth Mandel
A few years ago, there was a Pulitzer winner who was fired in between the publication of his story and the presentation of the Pulitzer Award to him.
Jon Podhoretz
Right. Well, and so that's, that's, that's life. That is life today. Okay, I'm gonna make a quick recommendation. We can go. I made a joke about a Marvel movie. I took my son to see Thunderbolts yesterday. If you are, if you are somebody whose kids like Marvel movies and you have had the regrettable experience of taking them to see Marvel movies since Endgame, or watch many of the Marvel series on Disney since 2019 or when Disney started, though there have been a couple of watchable ones, including Shang Chi. Like, some of them have been just absolutely egregious, particularly the most recent one, Captain America, Brave New World, in which Harrison Ford turns into a red Hulk in one of the most embarrassing sequences in film history. Thunderbolts is fun and it's pretty good. And it's, it's. And Florence Pugh is amazing in it. And so you can go see it is what I'm saying without, you know, wanting to bash your head onto the table on which they bring you your, your drinks now at many, many theaters to get through the, to get through the experience.
Seth Mandel
And you should see it before the tariffs kick in.
Jon Podhoretz
But it's already done. Also President's 100. Yeah, I know, but, but that thing was like, been made entirely in Georgia, as far as I can tell. And very, you know, it's set in New York. I don't think it was filmed anywhere in New York. I think it's one. Another version of that thing where they just sort of put them on a stage and then they have a virtual city around them. But it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's a decent time at the movies that you can take your kids to if you, if you were obliged to find something to take them to. So that's our show. Look back tomorrow for Matt, Seth and Abe, I'm John Pal Hort. Keep the candle bur.
The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "Events, Dear Boy, Events" – Detailed Summary
Release Date: May 7, 2025
Host: Jon Podhoretz
Guests: Abe Greenwald (Executive Editor), Matthew Continetti, Seth Mandel
In the episode titled "Events, Dear Boy, Events," The Commentary Magazine Podcast delves into the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics, focusing primarily on the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy, and the broader implications of these developments on international stability. Hosts Jon Podhoretz, Abe Greenwald, Matthew Continetti, and Seth Mandel engage in a comprehensive discussion, punctuated by insightful analyses and notable quotations, to unravel the complexities of these pressing issues.
Jon Podhoretz opens the discussion by highlighting a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape:
"There are two countries with nuclear weapons right next to each other that have been in a hostile relationship now for as long as Israel has been in existence... India and Pakistan are now in a shooting war with each other." [03:00]
This confrontation marks a departure from historical U.S. involvements, reminiscent of the Cold War era, but with a contemporary twist where both nuclear-armed neighbors are in active conflict.
Abe Greenwald provides historical context:
"For much of the Cold War and in the aftermath of the Cold War, America was allied with Pakistan... India was a non-aligned nation." [04:00]
He underscores the transformation in U.S. alliances over the past 25 years, particularly post-9/11, where geopolitical priorities have realigned due to the rise of China.
Abe Greenwald elaborates on the U.S. strategic pivot:
"Post 911 and really in the last decade or so, as a result of the rise of China, our alignment has changed and we are much more pro India now and much less supportive of Pakistan." [05:00]
This realignment signifies a broader strategy to counterbalance China's influence by strengthening ties with India, positioning it as a crucial economic and strategic ally.
Seth Mandel concurs, emphasizing India's pivotal role:
"India is too big to fail, I think is the way American presidents tend to think about it. It's the largest democracy in the world... its role in the global economy is just too significant." [11:22]
He further contrasts this stance with the complicated and often unreliable relationship the U.S. has had with Pakistan.
Jon Podhoretz and Abe Greenwald discuss Pakistan's growing alignment with China:
"Pakistan is aligning with China... the US has distanced itself, and Pakistan is now closely leaning towards China." [07:34]
This shift is seen as part of the larger American competition with China, mirroring global power struggles and impacting regional stability.
A significant portion of the discussion centers on the recent developments in Yemen involving the Houthis and their ceasefire, intertwined with Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Abe Greenwald introduces the topic:
"India and Pakistan are now in a shooting war... and another facet is the American competition with China." [07:34]
Jon Podhoretz connects this to broader U.S. foreign policy maneuvers:
"Trump is making diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, potentially involving a new nuclear deal with Iran and dealing with the Houthi ceasefire in Yemen." [16:23]
Seth Mandel adds depth to Iran's negotiations:
"India is our economic bulwark against China... Regarding Iran, the Saudis are nudging Trump along the way, reminding us of the need to secure nuclear concessions." [44:54]
The interplay between the Houthi ceasefire and Iran's nuclear talks is critically analyzed, with the hosts debating whether these developments are genuine moves towards peace or strategic maneuvers by various geopolitical players.
The hosts scrutinize the Trump administration's approach, highlighting both its unpredictability and strategic intents.
Jon Podhoretz posits multiple interpretations of recent Houthi ceasefire announcements:
"Anyone could interpret this as Trump making it up or as a strategic move to advance nuclear negotiations with Iran." [38:13]
Seth Mandel references past administrations to contextualize current strategies:
"This resembles when the Obama administration focused solely on the Iran nuclear deal, often at the expense of addressing regional terrorism and conflicts." [43:08]
Abe Greenwald and Jon Podhoretz debate the effectiveness and sincerity of these foreign policy moves, questioning whether they serve America's long-term interests or are merely opportunistic.
The conversation extends to the potential consequences of these geopolitical shifts on regional and global stability.
Seth Mandel warns about a possible nuclear arms race in the Middle East:
"Once Iran has nukes, there's nothing that matters anymore... Saudi Arabia would be compelled to acquire nuclear weapons in response." [58:31]
Jon Podhoretz echoes concerns about the cascading effects:
"If Iran secures a nuclear weapon, it could trigger a regional arms race, fundamentally altering the balance of power and escalating instability." [58:31]
The hosts collectively express apprehension over the fragile balance, emphasizing the risks of miscalculations leading to heightened conflicts.
Interwoven with geopolitical discussions is a side conversation about the physical state and renovations of the White House under Trump's administration.
Jon Podhoretz comments on Trump's aesthetic changes:
"Trump is redecorating the Oval Office, which can be seen as a reflection of his personality... The gilding and opulent additions alter the symbolic simplicity traditionally associated with the White House." [64:05]
Abe Greenwald defends the renovations as practical upgrades:
"Renovations like paving the Rose Garden are logical improvements aimed at facilitating more events and reducing logistical issues like muddy grounds." [72:00]
This segment serves as a metaphor for the broader shifts in U.S. policy and administration priorities, juxtaposing internal changes with external geopolitical strategies.
The episode wraps up with a synthesis of the discussed topics, underscoring the precariousness of current geopolitical dynamics.
Jon Podhoretz summarizes the uncertainties:
"This is a choose-your-own-adventure foreign policy with multiple potential outcomes, each carrying significant global repercussions." [41:39]
Abe Greenwald and Seth Mandel conclude by reiterating the importance of strategic alliances and the nuanced balance the U.S. must maintain to navigate these complex international waters.
Jon Podhoretz [03:00]: "There are two countries with nuclear weapons right next to each other that have been in a hostile relationship now for as long as Israel has been in existence... India and Pakistan are now in a shooting war with each other."
Abe Greenwald [04:00]: "For much of the Cold War and in the aftermath of the Cold War, America was allied with Pakistan... India was a non-aligned nation."
Seth Mandel [11:22]: "India is too big to fail, I think is the way American presidents tend to think about it. It's the largest democracy in the world... its role in the global economy is just too significant."
Jon Podhoretz [16:23]: "Trump is making diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, potentially involving a new nuclear deal with Iran and dealing with the Houthi ceasefire in Yemen."
Seth Mandel [43:08]: "This resembles when the Obama administration focused solely on the Iran nuclear deal, often at the expense of addressing regional terrorism and conflicts."
Seth Mandel [58:31]: "Once Iran has nukes, there's nothing that matters anymore... Saudi Arabia would be compelled to acquire nuclear weapons in response."
Jon Podhoretz [64:05]: "Trump is redecorating the Oval Office, which can be seen as a reflection of his personality... The gilding and opulent additions alter the symbolic simplicity traditionally associated with the White House."
"Events, Dear Boy, Events" offers a profound exploration of current geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan, and scrutinizes the evolving landscape of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration. Through incisive dialogue and critical analysis, the podcast episode provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the complex forces shaping today's world.