Loading summary
Transcript222 lines
- [00:00]
John Podhoretz
This episode is brought to you by Meundies. While Meundies can't totally help your love life, this Valentine's Day, they can offer you insanely comfy undies and loungewear to buy or gift. Meundies has so many awesome Valentine's Day prints and styles. Plus you can match with your partner, friends or even your pets. This Valentine's Day, give the gift that'll keep them thinking of you and score huge site wide savings@meundies.com Spotify that's meundies.com Spotify Meundies comfort from the outside in.
- [00:34]
Seth Mandel
Hope for the best Expect the worst.
- [00:41]
John Podhoretz
Some preach and pain Some die of.
- [00:44]
Seth Mandel
Thirst the way of knowing which way.
- [00:48]
John Podhoretz
It'S going Hope for the best Expect the worst Hope for the best welcome to the Commentary Magazine daily podcast. Today is Wednesday, February 5th, 2025. I'm John but Hortz, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me as always, Executive Editor Abe Greenwald. Hi, Abe.
- [01:07]
Abe Greenwald
Hi John.
- [01:08]
John Podhoretz
Senior Editor Seth Mandel. Hi, Seth.
- [01:10]
Matthew Continetti
Hi John.
- [01:10]
John Podhoretz
And Washington Commentary columnist and Director of Domestic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Matthew Continetti. Hi, Matt.
- [01:18]
Seth Mandel
Hi, John.
- [01:20]
John Podhoretz
My inclination is to begin with jokes because there are so many jokes than funny things that have come out of the last 12 to 15 hours. I think largely the result of the need to release excess tension and energy from shock and awe. Something happened Yesterday at around 5 o'clock that has never happened before. Policy is being promulgated that was so not on the radar screens of people who have been following the matter in hand for 75 years that, that we, we, we don't know where to go with it. So we start kind of defaulting to Twitter jokes. But it's no joke that the President of the United States went before the American people and the world at a press conference and announced that the United States would be taking over or taking a position, as he said in a previous moment, an ownership position. An ownership position in the Gaza Strip or Gaza. You know, the classic thing people say is, I didn't have that on my bingo card. I mean, there is no bingo card on which the United States taking over Gaza has ever been printed. In 1967, there was a huge fight inside Israel during the triumphant and unexpectedly triumphant march toward victory during the Six Day War, when a question was raised in the Israeli war cabinet about whether or not because it was the quickest route Israel should go into Gaza to go march down into the Sinai and take over the Sinai from Egypt. And there was a huge fight because the question was, do we want even to set foot in Gaza. From biblical times, when Gaza was the land of the Philistines, Gaza has been nothing but trouble for the Jewish people. Nobody wants Gaza. That's why Gaza became a refugee camp in 1948. Nobody wants Gaza. No one has ever wanted Gaza. No one has wanted Gaza for 3,000 years until Donald Trump came along.
- [03:59]
Seth Mandel
Well, maybe we should just put on our decoder rings and point them at the TV screens and try to maybe make sense of what Trump is saying and where he's coming from and arriving at this remarkable statement.
- [04:18]
John Podhoretz
Just one of many for him, too, by the way.
- [04:21]
Seth Mandel
Well, that's why I'm here. I provide a service, John, to all, all. To all who listen.
- [04:26]
John Podhoretz
Yes, you do.
- [04:27]
Seth Mandel
So what was amazing about the press conference was that it was doubly radical. For weeks now, Trump has been arguing that the Gazan Palestinians should leave Gaza, and he has been calling on the Arab world to accept the Palestinians because, as he says, Gaza, as a result of the war, is virtually uninhabitable. We. We hear in the mainstream media about all the ruined buildings, all of the problems. So Trump has been saying the Palestinians should leave Gaza. That in itself is radical because no American president has suggested this before and kind of called the bluff of the Arab governments who, since the beginning of the conflict, have refused to accept, and I mean, the beginning of the conflict, 1948, have refused to accept the Palestinians from. From Gaza. So then he decided, in classic Trump fashion, let's just go even farther. And he said that his plan is, at the end of this process, America would have some type of role in Gaza. We would take it over an ownership position. By which I think he means that the Americans would own the new result. Resorts and condos and skyscrapers he's envisioning will rise from Gaza, like, say, the.
- [06:05]
John Podhoretz
Riviera of the Middle east, as he.
- [06:07]
Seth Mandel
Put it, or Dubai, you know, yeah.
- [06:10]
John Podhoretz
We'Re going to flip Gaza.
- [06:12]
Matthew Continetti
We're going to flip Gaza.
- [06:13]
Seth Mandel
And that's his. That's his vision. Important to note, there's no real timeline on the vision. And I think the second thing to note is somehow people, people on social media took from this, that American troops would be involved in Gaza. I'm pretty sure he's not saying that either. I think what he's doing here is, one, turning the entire Middle east on its head, which he's done before, and two, he's saying that, you know, the situation is so stupid the way that it's been working out over the past half century, that rather than say we're going to have some type of Arab consortium come in and run Gaza after the war, America will do it, America will preside over it, and that will be, that will be the way to reach an actual enduring peace. Now, I, I put out my decoding ring, I gave you the explanation. Do I think it's going to happen?
- [07:17]
John Podhoretz
No, not really.
- [07:18]
Seth Mandel
But it is a pretty bold and imaginative view of what direction US policy should take and the Middle east should take. And finally, it also is the death knell for the two state solution, because there's no question, there's no way Trump is going to support a two state solution after he's saying the Palestinians should leave Gaza and then once they leave, America will rebuild it.
- [07:46]
John Podhoretz
Okay, I, I think you could make the argument that the only future for a two state solution, not in the next four years, not in the next eight years, not even in the next 20 years, when there is, will be no two state solution. Israel could, cannot, cannot make itself party to a two state solution until this generation of Gazans and Palestinians passes this mortal coil. I mean, it is essentially a kind of reverse story of the Jewish travails and travels through the desert after leaving Egypt. The Gazans, the Palestinians, are in no shape, condition, moral, spiritual, technical, juridical, whatever to be entrusted with this land. If Israel is to be safe and survive and not have multiple October 70th, there will be no Palestinian state for at least a generation. But at the end of the generation, if Gaza is rebuilt, if the Palestinians are sort of are, are find themselves in the bracing light of reality in which there is a future for them to be defended and a world in which they have a stake, in which they can be protected and find some pathway to a normal and profitable existence. Could there then be peace between Israel and the Palestinians? I think the answer is yes. But that again gets to your no timeframe point here. And this is the secret of you could look at Trump and say he's a chaos agent and a sower of chaos. Or you could look at this and say that he has done the ancient, the equivalent of the ancient parable, or whatever you want to call it, of the Gordian knot. You have an unsolvable problem, an unbreakable puzzle, and you take your sword and you simply slice it in half. You don't stand there for 75 years trying to unknot a knot that cannot be knotted. You say that's not a knot, or you say it's a knot. The way to solve it is not to try to Unravel it so that you leave the rope intact or you.
- [09:50]
Seth Mandel
Say it's, it's my knot.
- [09:53]
John Podhoretz
That's basically what, it's ours.
- [09:55]
Seth Mandel
Not now.
- [09:56]
Matthew Continetti
The most beautiful knot you have ever seen.
- [09:58]
John Podhoretz
The most beautiful knot.
- [09:59]
Seth Mandel
Yeah, go ahead.
- [10:00]
John Podhoretz
Point out that, Seth, where, where we, where we have a precedent for what Trump has done here is two steps. One very small, though it looked huge, and then one much larger. And the very small step that looked huge because of the resistance to it was the moving of the embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Jerusalem being Israel's capital, its declared capital, the home of its government, the home of its parliament. And the United States, like many other countries, simply refused to accept the idea that Jerusalem was Israel's capital and placed its embassy in Tel Aviv. And multiple congresses and platforms of presidents running for office said that upon taking office they would move the embassy to Jerusalem and then did not do it. And Seth, in our pages and elsewhere would make fun of the idea that the embassy could ever be moved. It was like it, it was a cost without a benefit. You couldn't see why would anyone upset this status quo. It was understood that the embassies were in Tel Aviv. Big deal. Tel Aviv is a 45 minute drive from, hour drive from, from Jerusalem. It doesn't really matter. It's like having it would be like, you know, the embassy would be in, you know, Morristown, New Jersey instead, instead of in Manhattan or it was in like Middleburg, Virginia instead of in, in Washington. Big deal. Nope, nope. No.
- [11:30]
Matthew Continetti
Well, the, the main point was that I just wanted them to stop promising it.
- [11:34]
John Podhoretz
Right. And it was, it was, the promise.
- [11:37]
Matthew Continetti
Is, the idea is, you know, obviously Jerusalem is the capital. It's, it's, it was actually ridiculous that there was a debate over whether the embassy should be in the cap, but it's like, no one's going to do it.
- [11:48]
John Podhoretz
No one's going to do it. And then Trump did it and Trump did. And the idea was, oh, the Arab street's going to go on fire. Oh, this is going to, oh my God, there are going to be riots everywhere and thousands of people will die. And there was nothing. And that small move was in part a signal along with much grander things, including the fact that we tilted toward, decisively toward Israel. And Israel and Saudi Arabia had started making a pretty quiet but very noticeable entente against Iran after the Iran nuclear deal for the larger prospect of a separate peace system that came to be known as the Abraham Accords. One, I don't think the Abraham Accords would have been possible without moving the embassy, though you might think that that's sort of ridiculous because the embassy is a tiny baby step and the Abraham Accords potentially revolutionary. Nonetheless, that is what happened in Trump's first term. He is looking, as he goes into his second term at where he succeeded. And what he sees is boldness worked. Boldness worked. And not. And not incrementalism. And our entire policy in the Middle east for since 67, when the facts Israel, the fact that Israel was going to be there forever and that Israel was a military power to reckon with and was going to have to be something that we looked at as a major country that we couldn't simply brush off. Since 67, the idea has been that changes there have to be necessarily incremental at best, but because it was too incendiary for anything to be changed. And Trump, I think, looks. We don't really know what Trump looked at or how this happened. But you're looking and you're going, well, all these other methods haven't worked. Why am I. And look at Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken and Biden and how they screwed everything up. And look at what the Council on Foreign Relations says and look at what everybody does. The hell with this. We'll take over Gaza. It's a wreck. You know what I know how to do? I know how to clear a development site. That's what I do. That's my business. You know what you do? You take bulldozers. And you know what's more? I've even had to do Superfund cleanup. There's a lot of unexploded armature there. Armature. That's not the word I'm looking for. Ordinance. There's a lot of unexploded ordinance. Someone's got to deal with that. Bulldoze the place, clear the brush, make everything, and then you can start building. You'd start building foundations, doing this, doing that, doing the other thing. That's why the language that he used all day yesterday was real estate language. It was developers language.
- [14:25]
Matthew Continetti
It was language of international relationship, ownership position.
- [14:29]
John Podhoretz
Those were his words.
- [14:30]
Matthew Continetti
The President of the United States used the words. I see. A long term ownership position.
- [14:35]
John Podhoretz
Can I explain?
- [14:36]
Abe Greenwald
Can I just jump in for a second?
- [14:38]
John Podhoretz
Yeah, yeah.
- [14:38]
Abe Greenwald
Because one thing I think we're not fleshing out here, which is given the potential unfeasible infeasibility of this undertaking here, and in light of his tariff wars that weren't, why isn't this just a way of saying, I'm going to shock Arab leaders who aren't doing anything into doing something. Because what I'm throwing.
- [15:05]
John Podhoretz
I think it is. I think it absolutely is.
- [15:07]
Matthew Continetti
Yeah, I mean, I think.
- [15:09]
John Podhoretz
But I wanted to. Seth, let me one quick thought on the real estate front. When he says ownership position, again, we're talking real estate language. That's a very specific thing in real estate language because it is actually taking back on the, we're taking Gaza. When people develop large scale office buildings or office parks or a part of a big development, they often do this in tandem or with four or five different partners. And somebody builds the office building and somebody else builds the apartment building. And then at the bottom of all these buildings there is retail. And if you have a condo, the person who develops the condo sells the apartments and somebody sells the apartments, but keeps the retail at the bottom two stories as a perpetual, as sort of like his profit and he will rent out the retail space. So in the end, if you read about why it was so hard for Trump to think about unwinding his real estate position business when he became president in 2016, it's because he's got a little bit here. He's got 12% of this, he's got 18% of that. He traded 14% of this, of the, of the underlying ground lease of this building for 11% of the retail in this building. That's how large scale real estate works. It's an agglomeration. It is kind of like every one of these projects is a stock market of its own. You don't own it 100%. You own 14%. Somebody else owns 12, somebody else owns 18. When he says ownership position, he doesn't mean that the United States is going to own the Gaza Strip. He means he's going in, he's going to put. It's like slapping the word Trump on a building because it's a good marketing ploy. But he only really owns 5% of it, will own the hotels or he'll lease the hotels.
- [17:08]
Seth Mandel
Well, so can I just put this.
- [17:10]
John Podhoretz
In context from what we're seeing, 12% of it.
- [17:14]
Seth Mandel
The day before this announcement, he signed an executive order instructing the Departments of Treasury and Commerce to begin the groundwork for a United States sovereign wealth fund. And there are many sovereign wealth funds in the around the world. United States doesn't have one. We haven't really needed one. A sovereign wealth fund is a huge pool of investments that the government runs. Typically they're called strategic funds. They're meant to pursue some sort of objective. They often can lead to rents they can give. The closest we have to a sovereign wealth fund is the Alaska fund, where every Alaskan gets a piece of the oil profits from Alaska. So Trump laid this out in an executive order. I mean, something as big as a sovereign wealth fund would to me, my, you know, old fashioned thinking would require an act of Congress. But he's laying it out. So this is again an extension of Trump the businessman. Why does he want the sovereign wealth fund? Well, he thinks, as he said, maybe we can use it to buy TikTok. And trump the businessman too is now into NEO Manifest Destiny. Since the election, Neo Manifest Destiny. He's the real estate man and he's going to have a legacy and that legacy will be more territory for the United States, control of the Panama Canal, acquisition of Greenland, Canada as the 51st state, and now Gaza. All of this is, I think, his sense of mission and his redefinition of his role as the president. Looking back, the first term was rather kind of conventional. He was trying to be a conventional president. He couldn't do it because he had no experience. He led this populist movement. He didn't really have any friends in government. This time he's saying, I'm going to shape the office to me for me. And that's where you get this electric press conference where just anyone who hasn't seen it should take a moment to look at the various expressions that ran over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's face over the course of this press conference. Because it's kind of, oh, wow, we're really doing this. This is the best thing he could think of.
- [19:41]
John Podhoretz
You know, I'm not the best sleeper. And through my life I've tried to figure out different ways to improve on my sleeping. Going to bed at the same time every night, people say, is a good thing. Making sure your phone is not in reach so that you can't grab for it at any moment to overstimulate yourself. And making sure that my dog doesn't sleep in my bed, which has actually been pretty successful. But these, these take constant effort. They don't show the best results. And I, I've come to believe that if you really want to change the way you sleep, you might need to deal with your materials that you sleep in. And so I'm talking about upgrading to Bolan branches, 100% organic cotton sheets. You'll fall asleep faster with that luxurious softness that puts you in instant relaxation mode. You'll spend every night in buttery, breathable comfort and feel Your sheets get softer with every wash and you can discover the difference with Bolen Branch's 30 night guarantee look. You can feel the quality differently. You can feel how it differs from other sheets, that there's no sandpapery feel, there's nothing itchy, it's just smooth and soft and gets softer and softer and softer. So they're made different so you can sleep better at night. They're woven with the finest 100% organic cotton on earth, crafted by artisans who earn the pay and respect they deserve designs and colors for every bedroom and mattress size. And they have this breathable, unmatched softness to start as I've mentioned. And you can try bowling brand sheets for an entire month. Seriously, you can wash style, feel the difference for yourself risk free. And if they don't change the way you sleep, you can send them back for a full refund. Now's your chance to change the way you sleep. With bowl and Branch. Get 15% off plus free shipping on your first set of sheets at bowl and branch.com commentary that's B O L L A N D b r a n c-h.com commentary to save 15% exclusions apply. See site for details. Okay, I gotta talk to you once again about quints. So Quints, as you may know, is the go to for luxury essentials at affordable prices. When Quinn started to advertise on our podcast, they let me get one item for free. I got a sweater that was so glorious that I have in the months since purchased seven more several shirts and I just purchased a down puffer jacket from them. So as I talk to you about Quince, just you should know that I have become a rabid Quince fan and a enthusiastic Quince customer. Because who doesn't love the good things in life? I mean, I like a little luxury, but I have three kids in private schools in college and it doesn't mean that I can always afford luxury. And that's one of the many reasons that I love Quince, which offers a range of high quality items at prices within reach, like 100% Mongolian cashmere sweaters from 50 bucks, washable silk tops and dresses, organic cotton sweaters and 14 karat gold jewelry. The best part? All Quince Items are priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. By partnering directly with top factories, Quince cuts out the cost of the middleman and passes the savings on to us. And Quince only works with factories that use safe, ethical and responsible manufacturing practices and premium fabrics and finishes. So give yourself the luxury you deserve with Quince, go to quint.com commentary for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That's Q U I N C E.com, to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quints.com/complyment.
- [23:55]
Matthew Continetti
And he had all his advisors stand up early on in the press conference and wave to the crowd and be applauded.
- [24:05]
Seth Mandel
Right?
- [24:05]
Matthew Continetti
He said, Steve Witkoff, you've done a great job. Stand up. And then before he, he asked the first question, he said, J.D. j.D. Vance, J.D. stand up.
- [24:15]
Seth Mandel
Well, that's the other role he has Trump the mc, Trump the television host.
- [24:19]
Matthew Continetti
And he said, Caroline is here, meaning Caroline Levitt is press secretary. And he said people, people have been talking about her more than they've been talking about me. You know, whatever. He said to Bibi, look at, look at, look at, look at all the seats. You, you look at all the butts you put in seats. You know, you really, you really bring them out. It was like a pep rally.
- [24:37]
John Podhoretz
But I think it's more than that. I think it's more than that. And again, I don't ascribe to him Machiavellian third order 3D chess playing. But it meant something that he told JD Vance to stand up at this press conference at which he said, the United States is taking an ownership position in Gaza. We all know that in the ideological division inside the administration, to the extent that there is an ideological division which we can get to, there are two camps in terms of foreign policy. There's a non interventionist camp and there is a kind of old line, not even old line, just sort of like from 2000 onward, hawkish post 911 camp. Right? The hawkish post 911 camp is represented the administration by Mike Waltz, theoretically by Marco Rubio, but though he's bending in a lot of ways by Tom Cotton in the Senate. And then you have the non interventionist camp and that is, that is represented by people at the second level. That is Mike Anton at State and this, this supposed appointee Michael Dimino at, at Defense and Elbridge Colby being policy planning at defense. And J.D. vance is thought to be the leading figure in this non interventionist. I don't care about Ukraine. I don't want to do anything. You know, we, we shouldn't do anything. And Trump made J.D. vance stand up at the press conference where he said we are taking Gaza. And I don't think that was nothing. I don't think it was just, I think it was we are all playing from the same hymn we are all singing from the same hymnal. Right.
- [26:23]
Seth Mandel
And because there's no time limit, JD May be the person who has to turn on the lights on the Trump Tower. Khan. Eunice. You know.
- [26:33]
John Podhoretz
Exactly. Yeah. Because six, eight years from now.
- [26:35]
Seth Mandel
Right. Because he could be president at the time.
- [26:38]
John Podhoretz
So. So I don't think that was nothing. I don't think it was just, hey, everybody, stand up. It was. This is my administration. Here's the Treasury Secretary. Here's the Defense secretary, because Hegseth was there. Here's. Here's the national security adviser. Rubio wasn't there because he's in South America. And here is the vice president.
- [26:58]
Matthew Continetti
Rubio was on. According to him, Rubio was on the phone listening to them. And therefore he got an introduction.
- [27:05]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [27:05]
Matthew Continetti
The same way everybody else did.
- [27:06]
John Podhoretz
Fair enough. And here is the prime minister of Israel, our best friend. I wanted him to come here first. We've done wonderful things together. We're going to do more wonderful things together. I'm not here with the Prime Minister of England. I'm not here with the President of France. I'm not here with the Prime Minister of India or Canada or Canada or Mexico or anything. I'm here with this guy who runs this pisher country of 9 million people sitting there in the middle of the Middle east. And he and I are going to wedge world change together.
- [27:46]
Seth Mandel
Now, that's a good time to mention that the executive orders Trump signed before the press conference, because we have this developing schedule in the White House now where almost every day practically since he became president, he signs a series of executive orders. And every other day or so, maybe twice a week, he turns that executive order signing into a rolling press conference. Again, a television show. It's all becoming just this fascinating television show. And during the rolling press conference where he was signing these executive orders, Trump signed orders removing us from the UN Human Rights Council, defunding unra American contributions to unwra, reinstating his maximum pressure campaign against Iran. And then when Peter Doocy of Fox, who's typically the interlocutor in these rolling press conferences in the Oval Office, says, well, you know, Mr. President, what do you think about Iran trying to kill you and other people in your administration? And Trump said, it's a terrible. I'm paraphrasing, but Trump said, it's a terrible, terrible things. But, you know, they know that if this were to happen, and it won't happen, but if this were to happen, we would obliterate Iran. I've left instructions.
- [29:09]
John Podhoretz
Yes.
- [29:10]
Seth Mandel
I've Left instructions to obliterate Iran. Don't know there's a letter somewhere, but you open it up in. In the case of my.
- [29:19]
Abe Greenwald
If you're reading this.
- [29:21]
Seth Mandel
If you're reading this, it is time to obliterate Iran. And it was just one of many moments during the day yesterday where I. I burst into laughter and a huge smile just spread across my face. That's how I'm feeling the past 24 hours.
- [29:37]
Matthew Continetti
And I have to say, like, that rolling press conference was really wild, because I'm not. The rolling press conference. The rolling. That. That scene in the Oval.
- [29:44]
Seth Mandel
Yeah.
- [29:45]
Matthew Continetti
I went back to rewatch the clips after I watched the press conference with Bibi. And, you know, when he's doing that, when you say rolling, you really mean it. He's. He's got the press around him for everything he's doing. He's just sitting at his desk and people are coming in and out. He wants the press there. Right. There was something kind of wild about the way that he kept everybody there, cameras on him, like a reality show, in a way. Even his first term wasn't where he was just like, the camera's gonna follow me everywhere. The people are gonna follow me everywhere. And, you know, it's all gonna rotate around me. And the other thing was that when that UNRWA executive order came in, you know, pulling the US out of funding the Relief and Works Agency and the Human Rights Council, he's.
- [30:38]
Seth Mandel
He.
- [30:38]
Matthew Continetti
He's sitting at his desk and, you know, he's talking to the reporters, and then, you know, somebody comes in with a piece of paper. You know, what do you got? Well, Mr. President, you know, based on your directives, you know, we've got this executive order pulling us out of funding these United nations agencies. Oh, yeah. You know, and he takes it and is. And he's sitting there and he's signing his name. He's going, you know, the potential. The un. The potential was so great. A lot of people disagree with me. A lot of people disagree with me, but the potential was just incredible. And, you know, it didn't happen.
- [31:09]
Seth Mandel
It didn't work out.
- [31:10]
Matthew Continetti
They got. They got to get their act together, and. And, you know, it's just not happening. And we might not be in the.
- [31:16]
Seth Mandel
United nations by the end of this term.
- [31:18]
John Podhoretz
That's.
- [31:19]
Seth Mandel
That's my prediction.
- [31:19]
Matthew Continetti
This was a sort of like. There was something imperious and imperial about it that surpassed the first administration, too, which was like, you know, he's like, leaning on his, you know, chase sofa or whatever, you know, and they're bringing him grapes to feed him and executive order.
- [31:39]
John Podhoretz
Okay, so look, if the world is. Is. Is. If the world as. As we know, needs to be analogized at all times to the Godfather, because the Godfather is next to the Bible, the greatest work of imaginative. Bible's not a work of imaginative literature, but is the. Is the. Is the wisest, insanest work ever.
- [31:59]
Seth Mandel
Guide to politics, certainly.
- [32:01]
John Podhoretz
Yeah. Since the Prince. So in his first term, Trump was sunny, losing his temper, going to war. Come at him. He comes at you, he's going to curb stomp you if you say something nasty about his sister.
- [32:18]
Seth Mandel
No real friends.
- [32:19]
John Podhoretz
No friends, no nothing scary. But, you know the other. Someone's gonna take him out. And they did whatever they could to take him out at the causeway. Now, he's kind of a weird combination of Michael and Vito. Look at his demeanor over the. Granted, it's only two weeks, but look at his demeanor. He's relaxed. He speaks softly for the most part. I don't mean, like Brando softly, but he does not. He does not yell. He does not get heated. He does not start saying, you're a moron. He said, I don't want to be.
- [32:57]
Seth Mandel
A wise guy here, but I think America will just take over the Strip after the Palestinians leave. Yeah, I don't get ahead of my skis.
- [33:06]
John Podhoretz
Right. But then there was, of course, the moment when they said, well, no Arab country is going to take them in. And he said, my offer is nothing, and I would really appreciate it if Egypt and Jordan would pay the $250,000 casino fee. That's what I expect. And of course, what follows from that is if Egypt and Jordan don't pay the casino fee and take in the Palestinians, that he's gonna put two dead hookers in the beds of Sisi and the king of Jordan. I mean, I don't know.
- [33:40]
Seth Mandel
I think he'll crash their economies through tariffs.
- [33:42]
John Podhoretz
Well, okay, so I'm using the Met, and you're being literal.
- [33:49]
Seth Mandel
Literally. And you're taking him figuratively.
- [33:52]
John Podhoretz
I'm taking him seriously, and you're taking him literally.
- [33:55]
Seth Mandel
Yes.
- [33:55]
John Podhoretz
I'm just saying that if you want to. If you're looking for a way of trying to understand what is going on here, it is that he is approaching this. He is doing the. As if United States is the most powerful country in the world. It is the strongest country in the world. It's the richest country in the world. We're not scared of China. We're not scared of anybody. Right. I'm not scared of anybody. So what follows from that? Logically? Egypt. You're going to take a million Gazans. Now, we might say, and I think this is important, you might say, he's insane. They'll never take them. This is crazy. Right? Countries across the world take in hundreds of thousands of refugees every year.
- [34:42]
Seth Mandel
There are millions of Ukrainians throughout Europe.
- [34:45]
John Podhoretz
There are millions of Syrians.
- [34:47]
Seth Mandel
Right, right.
- [34:48]
John Podhoretz
Well, they're not even on the border.
- [34:50]
Seth Mandel
Right.
- [34:51]
John Podhoretz
They came on a boat.
- [34:52]
Seth Mandel
I think. I think Europe might regret that decision.
- [34:54]
John Podhoretz
But the Ukrainians, I'm not saying that they don't regret.
- [34:57]
Abe Greenwald
Angela Merkel were still in power.
- [34:59]
Seth Mandel
This is. We could do this.
- [35:01]
John Podhoretz
Egypt, I mean, how many. How many suit. How many South Sudanese are in Sudan? How many Rwandans are in Ethiopia? This. The flow of populations across borders to get away from incredibly crippling crises is a. That's since the world began. Just because Egypt built a wall and said it doesn't want Gazans in, Trump is saying, what the hell are they talking about? Look, you know, we're the United States. I'm stopping it. And they're not really refugees, but we took 15 million Mexicans and South Americans in just in the last three or three and a half years, and we.
- [35:42]
Matthew Continetti
Basically paid for that.
- [35:43]
John Podhoretz
Who the hell are you to say, you're not gonna take them, you're gonna take them?
- [35:47]
Matthew Continetti
Yeah, well, that's.
- [35:48]
Seth Mandel
So he.
- [35:49]
Matthew Continetti
Part of this is, though, that he's doing something else which is empowering Arab states. And I think that that's an important part of this, too. He's not just pushing them around. You know, when we did, we did an issue on Israel's anniversary in 2018, and I wrote a piece for that issue called the Palestinian Authority Loses Its Authority. And this is what I keep thinking, though, which was the point of the piece, the point that we made was that for the length of the conflict, the tail had been wagging the dog. The Palestinians had been in control of what people do. Jordan said, you know, I want to formally make peace with you. We can't sign a deal until the Palestinians sign some sort of deal. In Egypt, there was a whole fight just to. Jimmy Carter didn't even want the 79 deal without a Palestinian thing. For the longest time, the Palestinians were able to veto what sovereign nations around them did. The Saudis could be vetoed by the Palestinians. The Saudis. This was all sort of insane. And what Trump is doing is restoring a sort of proper order. What he's saying to them is, it doesn't really matter if the Palestinians want this or that because you're actually more powerful than them and you can decide what you want to do. Egypt, what would you like to be next door to?
- [37:19]
Seth Mandel
I have a slightly different take. And the way I see it is how we view the timeline of the Israeli Palestinian conflict. We obviously, the conflict begins in 1948. Then for much of the second half of the 20th century, it's an Israeli Arab conflict. Right. But that ends with Camp David and there's no Arab Israeli war since Camp David. Then after Camp David, with Carter and Sadat and begin, it becomes an Israeli Palestinian conflict. But remember, the first intifada in the 1980s was a bunch of people, Palestinians rising up, throwing stones at Israelis. It was kind of an issue for Israel and Israel's position in the world. The peace process as we understand it is an institution created in the post Cold War era. The process began after the first Gulf War. Right, right. That and then leading to Oslo in 93 when the terrorist Yasser Arafat is brought in as the official government of the Palestinian Authority. What does Trump think about the post Cold War era?
- [38:44]
John Podhoretz
Thinks it's garbage.
- [38:45]
Seth Mandel
He thinks it's garbage and it's a loser and America's been cheated and it hasn't achieved a damn thing. And so what is he doing? He is blowing it up. He has four years in office and he is tearing it apart. And that means, yeah, we're going to threaten these tariffs on Canada and Mexico and yeah, we're going to bully NATO into spending more money. And it means we're going to totally reevaluate this relationship we have with China, which again, comes out of that post Cold War era and the peace process. The peace process has led nowhere for 30 years. And so he's ended it.
- [39:20]
John Podhoretz
I think, look, I think that's a, that's a brilliant insight. And I think there's another part to it. When I said Egypt won't take the Palestinians and Jordan won't take the Palestinians, and there's something a little bananas about this because other countries don't get to shut off. I mean, don't get to just say, no, refugees can't come here, or they, they can, but they, it's ineffectual where they do whatever they can. They try to extort money. We, the United States and the west, wanted the Palestinians frozen in Gaza and in the west bank to put pressure on Israel to create the two state solution. That was implicit American policy. We did not want the Gazans to leave Gaza. We wanted the Gazans in Gaza so that at every moment Israel felt the pressure of doing something to, to demiserate them and make their lives better. And the same with the West Bank. Palestine, the, the, The Jordan is 70% Palestinian. In 1982, Ronald Reagan, in form of the Schultz peace plan said, the obvious thing should happen here is that the Palestinian people in on the west bank should be become part politically of some kind of confederation with Jordan. Jordan should become the political actor for the Palestinians as we figure out what's going to happen with the territory of the West Bank. And the King Hussein of Jordan said, we're washing our hands of this. We want no part of this. We're not part of your deal. George Schultz, let Israel handle this. And the United States said, fine, the hell with you, Jordan, whatever. But for 40 years it has been the implicit policy of the United States that the Palestinians should stay locked down where they are under the conditions that they are in, so that Israel has no choice ultimately but to surrender the west bank and create a two state solution. And where, Matt, when you said the two state solution is done, that's where Trump has finished that presumption which has been implicit. No one's ever said it, but it is very much of a piece with American policy and indeed by the way, leftist Israeli policy or Israeli policy that wants, wants a two state solution is things have got to be bad for the Palestinians on the west bank and in Gaza so that the guilt of the west will incept this state into being and create a new condition that will supposedly solve things. Why did the peace process become a Palestinian? Why was, why was it decided, as you say, in the wake of the Cold War, that the future to peace in the Middle east ran through the creation of a Palestinian state because it was decided again and so that the onus for this peace had to be on Israel because the only way there would be a Palestinian state is if Israel agreed to it, which is what happened at Oslo. Israel agreed to a process by which at the end the end result would be a Palestinian state. That had to be agreed to by Israel. It was in control of these two territories and what happened was destruction, war, murder, death, terrorism, and Israel basically, without ultimately giving up on the Palestinian state until relatively recently as a policy aim, had to go along and go, go forward.
- [43:00]
Abe Greenwald
So Trump, what did that do?
- [43:02]
John Podhoretz
This assess point? It denied agency to the Arabs, it denied agency to the people who are the brothers and sisters of the Palestinians to do something except give them money. They had to do nothing. It was the plate was passed, taken from their lips and other things happened. And Trump is putting it right back on the table. You fix this and Trump people, right, you fix it.
- [43:32]
Abe Greenwald
And he, and he, yeah, yes, he framed it as a real estate deal, but he also framed it as a humanitarian undertaking. I mean, that was, that was the sort of, to the extent that there was a moral thread going through it, that was it. And he said Gaza's a hellhole and it's been a hellhole for decades. So. Which is a sort of nod to what you're talking about.
- [43:55]
John Podhoretz
You know, I'm not the best sleeper, and through my life I've tried to figure out different ways to improve on my sleeping. Going to bed at the same time every night, people say, is a good thing. Making sure your phone is not in reach so that you can't grab for it at any moment to overstimulate yourself. And making sure that my dog doesn't sleep in my bed, which has actually been pretty successful. But these take constant effort. They don't show the best results. And I've come to believe that if you really want to change the way you sleep, you might need to deal with your materials that you sleep in. And so I'm talking about upgrading to Bolan branches 100% organic cotton sheets. You'll fall asleep faster with that luxurious softness that puts you in instant relaxation mode. You'll spend every night in buttery, breathable comfort and feel your sheets get softer with every wash. Then you can discover the difference. With Bolan branches 30 night guarantee look, you can feel the quality differently. You can feel how it differs from other sheets, that there's no sandpapery feel, there's nothing itchy, it's just smooth and soft and gets softer and softer and softer. So they're made different so you can sleep better at night. They're woven with the finest 100% organic cotton on earth, crafted by artisans who earn the pay and respect they deserve designs and colors for every bedroom and mattress size. And they have this breathable, unmatched softness to start, as I've mentioned. And you can try Bowen brand sheets for an entire month. Seriously, you can wash, style, feel the difference for yourself risk free. And if they don't change the way you sleep, you can send them back for a full refund. Now's your chance to change the way you sleep with bowl and Branch. Get 15% off plus free shipping on your first set of sheets at bowl and branch.com commentary that's B O L L A N D B R a n c h.com commentary to save 15% exclusions apply. See site for details.
- [46:08]
Seth Mandel
Oh, such a clutch off season pickup, Dave.
- [46:11]
John Podhoretz
I was worried we'd bring back the same team. I meant those blackout motorized shades. Lines.com made it crazy affordable to replace our old blinds.
- [46:18]
Seth Mandel
Hard to install?
- [46:19]
John Podhoretz
No, it's easy. I installed these and then got some for my mom. She talked to a design consultant for free and scheduled a professional measure and install hall of fame son. They're the number one online retailer of custom window coverings in the world. Blinds.com is the goal.
- [46:32]
Matthew Continetti
Shoplines.com right now and get up to.
- [46:35]
Seth Mandel
45% off select styles, rules and restrictions may apply. I also think we should mention just Seth, you might actually know the answer to this. There were reports that Trump watched the terror tape yesterday prior to the press conference, the 45 minute tape of the Hamas atrocities. And we know that Trump is very much affected by what he takes in visually. And so I think watching that video may have been another impetus to this radical idea of we're going to take things in a very different direction. Because as he said when he was with Bibi in one of the episodes yesterday, October 7th can never happen again.
- [47:22]
Matthew Continetti
Yeah, well, that's what happened with Syria.
- [47:23]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [47:23]
Matthew Continetti
He, he was ultimately the images from Assad having gassed children. Right. Was pushed him over the edge. He couldn't, he couldn't, you know, he felt he couldn't stand by. But I also think that, you know, Abe's point is key here, which is what happens when you take the Palestinians and their advocates at their word. What happens when they say this is an open air prison, this is a hellhole? Trump says, okay, I believe you.
- [48:00]
Abe Greenwald
Let's get you out of there.
- [48:01]
Matthew Continetti
A prison. Nobody wants to stay in prison. That's what a prison is. If it's, if you're telling me you are in prison, you're telling me get me out of here. I have an idea.
- [48:14]
John Podhoretz
Oh, but wait, that's another one of the interesting aspects of this that where the ironies are just folding in on themselves. So Gaza, what we heard, I heard John King on CNN say Trump is talking about forcibly relocating people off their land. Gaza legally is not their land. Gaza is a refugee camp. That would be like saying that the DPs who left Buchenwald and Theresienstadt and Auschwitz and Bergen Belsen and were relocated to DP camps for a couple of years, often a couple of years in Italy and elsewhere. And in. Right. DP camps, displaced persons camps. That when you said, okay, it's time to go to America, they were like this is our home. We live here. Now, granted, the Gazans have been in Gaza, for the Gazans, whatever, they've been there for 75 years. Legally, technically, it's not their land. It was Egyptian, Egypt. Israel won it in a war. The world did not recognize Israeli sovereignty over Gaza. It became a stateless land that is viewed in international law terms as a refugee camp. What do you do? This is what people have been saying for decades now. As a matter of logic, what do you do with refugees in refugee camps? You relocate them out of the refugee camp. You don't make the refugee camp a permanent residence such that John King, who is not an unintelligent person, but mostly knows how to move things from red to blue on a.
- [50:14]
Seth Mandel
He's very good on the board.
- [50:16]
John Podhoretz
He's very good on the board, but he doesn't understand the board because Gaza is neither red nor blue.
- [50:23]
Seth Mandel
He can circle Gaza with the telestratter and then draw arrows pointing to Jordan and to Egypt. Maybe that would help him understand what's happening.
- [50:33]
John Podhoretz
It's not their historic residents. That's not what Gaza is legally, in terms of international law or anything. And now the idea is Trump, by the way, didn't even say forcible resettlement. No, he said they should be moved. He said What? He said 4, 5, 7, 12, maybe wonderful sites, maybe even one big site, which is kind of funny because that would be like another giant refugee camp somewhere. But he said we need 1, 4, 5, 7, maybe 12 sites to move them to. And the idea would be, SS says if it's prison, give them someplace nicer to live until we finish reconstructing Gaza. Right.
- [51:15]
Seth Mandel
And leaving the option of coming back.
- [51:17]
John Podhoretz
Right. They can choose to come back or they can make a beautiful life for themselves somewhere else. That is actually what the logic of the refugee status of the Palestinians living in Gaza is supposed to be. That's the. The idea of a four generation, a fourth generation refugee is an oxymoron. It's a logical. There is no such thing. We have been living under this fiction. And again, in the Gordian nonsense. Not that I think that Trump has thought any of this through systematically. He has just cut to the. He has just cut the bullshit and gone right to the source, which is this place is a hellhole now. It's uninhabitable. Everybody's got to, like, be moved off so that we can clean it up, rebuild it, and then the ones who want to come back because it's so nice can all come back. And then we can move Forward because this only happened because these monsters who ran this place, who were supported by 80% of the population, cut through some fences, murdered and murdered and, and injured 5,000 Israelis and caused a war that destroyed Gaza that Israel did not want, did not seek and was not pursuing.
- [52:33]
Seth Mandel
May I ask a question? What, what do you think? I've spent some time puzzling over this since the press conference. If you're Qatar or if you're Erdogan or Sisi or, and I believe King Abdullah is coming here and going to visit with Trump this week as well. And you're watching this. What are you thinking? I think you're thinking, okay, what should I do next? Right? I mean, publicly we're going to say this, we oppose this idea, which I believe MBS of Saudi Arabia has already come out and said, we don't like this. But you have to think in behind the scenes, some of these Arab leaders are thinking, maybe we should give a carrot or something, or maybe we should take things a little bit more seriously when Witkoff come back to the region and says, okay, what about phase two, because we need the remaining hostages out. And then finally, you know, if you're Iran, what are you thinking as well? When Bibi is the first foreign dignitary Trump visits with in the White House, this whole list of executive orders, Trump says the goal of the maximum impression order is to end the Iranian oil business. And now we have this idea that, well, you know what? You're cut out. Iran, forget about it. We're taking, you're not part of the issue. Hamas is going to go away. We're going to move the Palestinians out for a while, then we're going to rebuild it and turn it into this kind of like, you know, Monaco on the Riviera where the Americans will have a controlling interest in the wealth. I'd imagine that there are a lot of capitals that are saying, one, he's crazy, but two, what are we going to do next?
- [54:26]
John Podhoretz
Okay, so here's where. And maybe we should sort of transition into the why this could be a catastrophic mistake portion of the discussion. Even though every part of my being says it's not a catastrophic mistake. But I mean, or, or that it is. We have. You don't make giant shifts in world policy like this and destabilize things.
- [54:53]
Seth Mandel
There are, there are downsides to everything.
- [54:55]
John Podhoretz
Okay, Right. Okay. So I am now going to use an analogy that will get people very angry with me, but I'm going to say it. Okay, so what. Why is it that Egypt and Jordan don't want Gazans on their territory or Palestinians on their territory. You know, cancer cells work like if you have a relative who's had cancer and they, and they, chemo and radiation do this and you do that. All these things, you do all these incredible things. One cell remains, one cell remains. And that cell metastasizes and can reignite the cancer. It's not like, well, you know, you got to, we got most of it. Got most of it. And it's all, you know, good. So, you know, that one cell will die off, One cell remains. They look at the people of Gaza, introduce them into the body, introduce them onto their territory, and you are introducing cancer. You are choosing, you are choosing to move, let's say, let me go even more offensive. Leper. It's a leper. You're. You're choosing. This is a diseased death cult culture that is dominated by an educational philosophy that has said that the only way to get ahead in life is to martyr yourself for your cause. They don't want them. They're terrified of having them. They don't want a single one of them on their territory. Every Palestinian who lives in the Persian Gulf, in the Philippines, all over the place, workforces in Dubai, places like that, are the ones who left of their own volition because they were looking and searching for a better life and said, I need a way out of this trap that I'm in. Either on the west bank or in Gaza, they've moved, they're gone, they've left. They left decades ago. They're all over the Far east and the, you know, and the Indian Ocean areas and in the Persian Gulf, as.
- [57:02]
Seth Mandel
Some are in America.
- [57:03]
John Podhoretz
And somewhere in America, they're on. They, they were enterprising and they weren't going to let their, their lives be destroyed by this perpetual status as a, you know, as a stateless refugee, whatever, okay? And maybe that, maybe their lives are really hard. Apparently it's horrible to work in Dubai. So I'm not saying that, you know, they, they necessarily made the best choice, but voluntarily, electively, many people have left and gone to make better lives elsewhere. They don't want them. And that's where the rubber meets the road. Because you're saying, okay, throw Trump a.
- [57:40]
Seth Mandel
Bone, we'll have to give him something.
- [57:42]
John Podhoretz
But if you're. Sisi, do you want 150,000 Gazans on your territory? You already have. You've been spending 13 years beating back the Muslim Brotherhood only to import a different form, a connected form of Arab nationalism onto your lands. In the form of this population that you are, that you have been bribing to stay where they are with the trucks that you allowed to drive in to build the tunnel city. That was a payoff to keep them inside the gates of Gaza, to have the Hamas keep the Gazans from leaving.
- [58:18]
Seth Mandel
So here's what you might do instead. When the next round of negotiations, you tell the Hamas leadership, you're going to have to go, you're going to have to leave Gaza. We have to give him something to show. So it's not, it doesn't. Again, the most total picture of what Trump is painting here is, won't be achieved by this. But I do think it's a way, just as we saw in our episode on Monday where we were talking all about the Terrafor. And then by the time the video appeared on YouTube and our YouTube channel, the tariff war with Mexico and Canada had been delayed a month because the leaders came in and said, okay, well, we'll do this stuff. And he said, fine. I think there might be something that these governments say at the end will, will exert a little bit more pressure. We'll tell them they have to give Israel answers on the, the Beavis family or something like that. You know, something has to happen, and it won't mean the whole population transfer, but it will be something like that. If that's the optimum. Optimum.
- [59:25]
John Podhoretz
The reason I said we needed to move into the sort of, the bad, the bad news part is they don't want them. They will do everything possible they can to prevent, to prevent this Trump policy from happening because they have domestic considerations that say, I can't take these people onto my. I got enough trouble, I got enough problems. Like, I got my own rest of populations. I got my own, you know, I got my own issues. Like, I, I'm, I'm, I'm the head of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. I've been spending 50 years keeping the Palestinians squashed down so that I can rule as a minority here. That's all I need is another 500,000 Palestinians here to knock me over. Right? So they say no, which is what actually happens with all peace plans. If you want to even look at this as a kind of a. They just say no, and then Trump says yes, and they say no. And then he says, I'll slap tariffs on you. And in the end, if you're King Abdullah of Jordan, what's better, a tariff or being overthrown and hung upside down and peed on, have your corpse peed on by, you know, when you're dead, probably a tariff is gonna be.
- [60:34]
Abe Greenwald
If you didn't throw in the p.
- [60:36]
John Podhoretz
Okay, I'm sorry, I just was thinking about what people do to, you know, people in this, this, this, this position. Okay, so, so that, summarize that Trump will hit an immovable object which is that there ultimately there is no way that his vision can be actually, even though what I've said is of course they should take in refugees. They're not going to take in refugees. Even the visuals of the last two weeks, imagine your gutter or you're any of these places and you're watching the scenes of the hostages coming out and being led to the cars to be driven to Israel and you're seeing those scenes of chaos and you're seeing how much Hamas is still supported by the people of Gaza. Do you want those people of Gaza coming to your country and still worshiping Hamas?
- [61:25]
Matthew Continetti
And we should note, by the way that there are lots of Gazans in Egypt since the beginning of the war. They are the ones who could afford to pay bribes or whatever they needed to get there. So, you know, Egypt basically has taken in what it sees as not the non economic migrant sort of sector of the population. And they, what they see now is anybody else that we would be taking in would be importing, you know, actual refugee sort of stat, poor people, people who couldn't pay their way through. You know, we let the people who could afford to live in Cairo and its environs in already. Now you're just asking us to take the rest.
- [62:10]
John Podhoretz
Okay, so the other question that's been asked to me, and I'll ask to you guys is what does this mean for the hostages? You're Hamas. You're listening to what just happened yesterday. The United States is saying we're going to deep, we're going to empty out Gaza, which of course necessarily means Hamas. If Gaza is emptied out for 10 years, Hamas is gone. Right? That's all. Hamas is Gaza or has whatever, whatever remains of Hamas is somewhere around Gaza and you have the hostages and has that, has the deal been superseded? Is that it? Are the hostages going to now be killed as a, as, as, as a kind of punishment for, for, for this proposal? That's what people have been emailing me all night, all day. I say no because it's still the only leverage they have. Not. But I don't know that for a fact.
- [63:02]
Seth Mandel
Well, I would just, I would say of course we don't know for a fact. But you know, Trump is proposing this as the post War plan.
- [63:12]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [63:13]
Seth Mandel
What has been the criticism all along? Well, Israel and the United States don't have a plan for when the war is over. Well, Trump is saying, here's my plan. And again, it's radical and audacious and may not work, but that is his plan. I don't think the plan supersedes the ceasefire, and in fact, he's proposing it as the negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire is supposed to begin. So.
- [63:42]
Abe Greenwald
And Bibi was still talking about destroying Hamas.
- [63:46]
John Podhoretz
Right. But I'm saying take it from the other angle. Right. Bibi said we are going to finish this war and win this war. He said that yesterday. That means we're going through this phase. We're going to get out to 33 or, you know, we're going to have the remaining hostages that we're supposed to get in this phase. And then, then we're going to destroy Hamas unless, and maybe we'll, maybe we'll make some kind of a deal where Hamas, you know, lets everybody else out before we destroy them or something like that. I don't quite understand the logic of phases two and three from the Hamas perspective, because, you know, there, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of anything for Hamas in phases two and three. At least in phase one, they got prisoners out, I guess in phases two and three. I mean, there's, at some point, there's a limit to how many prisoners can be let out, by the way, because I think the number is already approaching, I don't know what, like 1200 or something. So, you know, it's not like Israel just has, you know, 200,000 people in prison. They, they can let out. So.
- [64:47]
Matthew Continetti
But they can arrest a bunch more if they need.
- [64:50]
John Podhoretz
Yeah, it's like, it's like Hamas requests.
- [64:52]
Matthew Continetti
More than they have. You know, if there's, if there's supply and demand, if they, you know, they can, they can increase the supply if they need to, I suppose.
- [64:58]
John Podhoretz
Right. Okay. So, but I'm just saying we're in this very weird place where an earthquake has just essentially been detonated, and now it's like, well, Friday, you know, some more hostages are going to come out.
- [65:12]
Matthew Continetti
Well, I mean, I think that, I mean, okay, I think that it's, it's a, it's a message to Qatar and the mediators, which is if you, if something happens to those hostages, you're taking 500,000 Gazans. This is like a skin in the game sort of play for him. Hamas is not the lone decision maker here. There is this you know, obviously, he's not threatening Iran with Palestinian refugees and whatever. There's a limit to how, how he can spread the use of these Palestinians as, you know, a sort of dagger over, hanging over their heads. But I think as a negotiating tactic, it is, you know, that's, that's the, this is plan B. Plan B is they all go and they go to you. So the hostages come out, the deal gets finished, there's peace in Gaza. Otherwise, you will feel. You and Qatar will feel some of the pain of this.
- [66:20]
John Podhoretz
Trump talked nice about Qatar yesterday. Yeah, he said, I think they're trying to be helpful. So he, he is still. He is. He is carroting and not sticking. He is, he is, he is his plan.
- [66:33]
Matthew Continetti
Not attacking, but this plan, this proposal is a stick, is what I'm saying. This is like, you can have me, you can have Steve Witkoff sing hymnals to your country from the White House, or you can have 500,000.
- [66:51]
Seth Mandel
I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen. I'm not sure Trump knows what's going to happen. It's all just one more thing. And today there will be more things, maybe some connected to the Middle east, maybe some not. There was a very good quote that Mark Halperin highlighted the other day, where I forget who was saying it. Some consultant or some former member of the first administration said, basically, you know, it's not like Trump has a spreadsheet here and is ticking off boxes, or even in the first term, you know, a lot of it was made of Steve Bannon's whiteboard that he set up in the phrase, here are the goals. This source was saying in the New York Times. That's not how Trump works. All he does is he wants to look at the headlines, wants to judge the headlines. Why did we climb down from the tariff threat on Monday? Sure, Canada and Mexico gave these olive branches, but the market did not look good. And we know Trump looks at the market. So he proposed this thing. It's got everybody talking. It's the lead story of all three major newspapers around the world. Its governments are denouncing it. All the people invested in this flawed peace process say, oh, this could never happen. And then he'll see, and then he'll improvise again. And we're just all kind of sitting here watching and commenting and try to try to make the most of the situation.
- [68:23]
John Podhoretz
Abe, as magazine editors and as people who publish articles on policy and try to analyze policy and then propose innovative solutions on policy, one of the interesting aspects of this and why Trump poses a unique, not only challenge, but opportunity and threat and whatever is that when you talk about education or you talk about affirmative action or stuff like that, and you get to the point in the argument that you're making where you get to the shoulds, right? And the shoulds are, we shouldn't be educating our children this way. We need to change the way we do it so that they now they study. They have gratitude for our country. It's something you wrote yesterday. They have gratitude for our country rather than being taught that our country is, is bad or problematic, as you wrote in their newsletter, or they need to be taught, you know, Latin, because that's, that's the classical way we need to do X, Y or Z. And this is something that we do. And I will be totally honest in saying that as we put these sections together at the end of our articles, or that we insist on writers like Matt and Seth putting at the end of our articles, we have absolutely no confidence, faith or belief that anything that we propose will ever actually be executed.
- [69:44]
Abe Greenwald
Well, does that depend on, on the administration, though, I mean, or, you know.
- [69:48]
John Podhoretz
But I mean, I, I, I just mean, for example, this, in 1984, Charles Murray writes a book in which he says, you know what we need to do? We have to end welfare. Book Losing Ground makes a sensation. Or we're talking about welfare. Welfare is a net negative. We all think it's probably welfare is bad, but I mean, come on, it was a thought experiment. Let's just end welfare. You know, it's never going to happen, but thank God someone's like, put it on the table so we can actually have a conversation about the costs of welfare. But welfare. And then 12 years later, as it happens, welfare as we know it came to an end. This started in a book published in 1984 and ended up as Policy of the United States 12 years later. But that doesn't happen very often. One of the things we're seeing here in this first two weeks of the Trump administration is that a lot of these weird ideas that have been flooded that seem weird, they don't seem weird. They seem absolutely commonsensical to us, like, end dei, stop affirmative action. Don't let there be trans surgeries for kids under 18. All of these things are facts on the ground in the United States. So you're like, well, you're not going to put the genie back in the bottle. You can't stop a fact on the ground. It's a new reality. You have to live within the new reality. Maybe you can temper it, maybe you can get people to look at the negative consequences and do it less. That's about as much as you can hope for. And suddenly there is a presidency that is saying no affirmative action, no dei, no girls in women's sports, but in a weird way, surgery for anybody under 19 and no. And Gaza depopulated America takes an ownership position.
- [71:31]
Abe Greenwald
But you know what? I think in a weird way, when the change is binary, when you're just saying yes or no to something, you're more likely to see it happen as opposed to when it's, when it's clever, when you're saying, well, we can do some of this and do that. When we take from this, you see, which will then cut down on that and then put that into there. And, you know, those sort of policy recommendations I think can sort of get lost in the ether. Yes, this is good, no, this is bad. That works its way into real world policymaker.
- [72:10]
John Podhoretz
Well, then, then you have to implement. Then of course, when you say no, then the question is, what does no mean? Right? Does it mean no in federal hospitals? Or can you then, can you use federal funding as a lever to impose policy by executive order on private institutions or something like that? That's where we start getting into the balance of powers problems and all of that.
- [72:39]
Abe Greenwald
But, but I don't think for a second Trump or anyone who advised him on this, if, you know, indeed that's how this came about, had sort of, you know, read or heard about a proposal. I think this sprouted from his brow.
- [72:59]
John Podhoretz
He didn't hear about it or read about it in their proposal because there is no proposal. I read every single thing written in English on the Middle East. There has not been a proposal to depopulate Gaza to rebuild it. That doesn't exist. There is no such proposal. When we talk about population transfer, and that is a very loaded term in Israel. It's been a loaded term in Israel since 1948. Gaza has never been an object of the theory of population transfer. In fact, today, supposedly there is going to be some kind of a conversation about the annexation or partial annexation of the West Bank, Judea and Samaria as we now are allowed to call it, according to the Senate, according to a resolution of the Senate, that's population transfer. That is Palestinians. Jordan's a Palestinian state. Move all the Palestinians from the west bank across the Jordan River. They can live there in their Palestinian state. The west bank is the biblical land of Israel. That's Judea and Samaria. That's where the 12 kingdoms were. And that's what we should have. That was Mayor Kahan. That is a very radical idea. People in Israel go to jail for proposing this. Literally. It is against the law for politicians in Israel to propose forcible population transfer, but it is an idea in Israel. Gaza was never part of that idea. Yeah, I mean, Mayor Kahana, who was the guy who was the population transfer here in his book on this, said yes, we should take Gaza too. But in fact, Gaza, like I said at the beginning of the podcast, Israel doesn't want, Israel never wanted to begin with and doesn't view. And Gaza wasn't really the biblical land, it was the land of the enemies of Israel. It was the land of the Philistines and stuff like that.
- [74:50]
Abe Greenwald
Anyway, I have a Trump question.
- [74:52]
John Podhoretz
Okay.
- [74:52]
Abe Greenwald
How does he, or does he have to sell this to maga? Right.
- [74:59]
John Podhoretz
The guy, oh, I love that.
- [75:00]
Abe Greenwald
The guy doesn't have to, he doesn't have to set based on the initial reaction.
- [75:05]
Seth Mandel
Doesn't seem like he has to.
- [75:06]
Matthew Continetti
And, and you know, one of, one of the tweets I saw was somebody pointing out that, you know, there was a conservative MAGA world person who was sort of delighting in the idea that there was going to be, you know, Trump buildings and big gleaming stuff in Gaza. Whatever. Somebody else said, you know, people don't understand how great this is. It's going to be American territory, so American laws are gonna predominate, you know, and stuff like that. And, and the comments were, you know, it's amazing how fast you can go from non intervention to, you know, an actual empire.
- [75:48]
Seth Mandel
Right.
- [75:48]
Matthew Continetti
America. The, the big difference between, the big difference between America and the imperial actors that it has been compared to is that when we went into Iraq, we didn't annex it. We didn't, you know, there was obviously a military governor. Yes. That, you know, for the war and stuff like Iraq is not ours. The oil that they pump does not immediately come through to our coffers. Right.
- [76:11]
Seth Mandel
That was Trump's criticism eight years ago.
- [76:13]
Matthew Continetti
Right, that's right. And that was, and that was, you know, a lot of people, I remember Chris Rock, you know, joking about how, you know, he said if, if we, if I took over a Waffle House, you better believe that pancakes would be cheaper in my house. But we go into Iraq and the price of oil goes up.
- [76:29]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [76:29]
Matthew Continetti
So that was, but we didn't, that was the whole point. We didn't do those things. We didn't just go and take. And now you see this like, well, and there. And, and you saw it with Greenland, too, right? Which was like, well, I don't love just going and taking Greenland, especially if we have to do it with troops. But it's not like the worst thing I've ever heard. Do you. I don't think. I think he has a core of people who are. They're bought in. They're in.
- [76:57]
Seth Mandel
And here's why I think they're bought in.
- [76:59]
John Podhoretz
Okay.
- [76:59]
Seth Mandel
Why? Because the, the most important thing for MAGA is disruption is overturning the apple cart is. Let's just, let's just get crazy tonight, right? That's the most important thing. Let's let Elon Musk tear apart the executive branch of government, starting with foreign aid, which is the most unpopular form of foreign. Of, of spending.
- [77:28]
John Podhoretz
Government spending.
- [77:28]
Seth Mandel
Government spending first. Right. So he'll start there. He's not tearing up other things yet. But let's just do it. Trump. What norms. Right. You know, oh, Trump's great because he just says whatever he thinks and does. He doesn't. He doesn't care. Right. And here, too, it's. Yeah, let's just upset this. Just upset these things. I mean, Panama and Greenland, you can make a geostrategic case for both of those foreign policy fixations because of their ways to counter the rise of China, whether it's in our, our hemisphere or in the Arctic. And in this case, it's, yeah, Trump is doing something that no one's ever thought before, no one ever has cared about before. So that's. Yeah, great. And I think they understand, too, as the White House. And I expect the White House to do more clarification on this. Trump does not mean American troops will be sent to Gaza. That's not what he's. That's not what he's talking about.
- [78:27]
John Podhoretz
No, but this is where, this is where the danger comes in. If we're really actually going to try to suss this out, which is things take unexpected turns and things have unexpected consequences. So. So let's game this out. So they do what they do and they're going to depopulate Gaza and then they're going to start doing the clearance and they're going to start building things. And then terrorists show up and start blowing up the new buildings in Gaza. Right. And start trying to. And start assassinating American. Start assigning workers who are building these buildings, and then the question is, who's going to protect them against the terrorists? And that's where the American troops start coming in. First of all, if you're going to do clearance of the Sort that we're talking about. You are going to be using American forces because you are likely, if you don't want Israel to do it, to bring in the Army Corps of Engineers. Now, the Army Corps of Engineers is not a, you know, it was not an active battalion of the US Military, but it is in the US Military. The US Military will be involved. That is who does things like large scale land. That's. That's who has the expertise.
- [79:30]
Seth Mandel
Well, and you know, who, of course, laid that precedent. Who laid the precedent? Biden. With the pier.
- [79:35]
John Podhoretz
With the pier. Right. The three.
- [79:37]
Seth Mandel
He's already. He already got us involved.
- [79:39]
John Podhoretz
Right. Okay. I'm just saying that you can see how you can stumble backwards into US Forces needing to protect people who are implementing this US Policy of reconstructing Gaza, and then something really catastrophic happens and then the world.
- [79:59]
Seth Mandel
This was. This was Lebanon. Right. The worst case scenario here would be very similar to America's intervention in Lebanon in the 1980s, which culminated in the barracks bombing, the death of our Marines, and then our withdrawal from Lebanon.
- [80:13]
John Podhoretz
Well, we didn't have to withdraw. That was a choice that was. Right.
- [80:16]
Seth Mandel
There's a choice Reagan made.
- [80:17]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [80:18]
Seth Mandel
And I think Trump would make the same. I mean, everything we know about Trump is he doesn't want Americans killed.
- [80:23]
John Podhoretz
Right. But as you say, I'm not even sure this would happen in his term like that. That's the odd part about this. We don't know what the time frame is. But I'm saying you can see how saying, well, American troops will never be involved. Well, I don't think you can say, you never know. Right. They will never be involved. Because you're talking about doing something that's never happened before, where you still have the interests of terrorists who are going to want it.
- [80:47]
Seth Mandel
But that's where maga, I think, would be. No, too far.
- [80:51]
John Podhoretz
Turn on him. MAGA would say that's too far.
- [80:54]
Seth Mandel
Well, what is. You know, I mean, look at what Tucker. Carl, Tucker Carlson would say. Carlson is probably going to say this is too far.
- [81:02]
John Podhoretz
Right, Tucker? Right.
- [81:03]
Seth Mandel
I said I'm interested in what Bannon says today.
- [81:05]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [81:06]
Seth Mandel
But he probably would say it's too far. If you're actually going to send Marines there, we don't need to get involved.
- [81:10]
John Podhoretz
I'm saying it's too far to send Marines.
- [81:12]
Seth Mandel
Yeah, me too. I don't want to send anybody. Right.
- [81:14]
John Podhoretz
Hey, we should send Marines. That's the joke of this, is if they start saying, well, this is a neocon fantasy. No, neocon said Gaza should be depopulated Trust me, I am Neo Khan. We never said it. No one ever said it. Like Michael Oren says in, in Six Days of War, a critical Neo context about the history, recent history of the Middle east. Arguably the greatest mistake that Israel ever made was in going through Gaza to get to Egypt. If it had not done so, a lot of stuff would. Might have been different and that, that was a huge mistake. So no Neo this is not a neocon plan. This is out of Athena's head. This is out of Trump's. Yeah, sprung like Athena from Trump's head. And so it is Trump Tucker who has taken this turn, complete turn into rabid, vociferous, nauseating, eliminationist, anti Semitic conspiracy, monstrous theory, according to which Israel killed jfk. Oh, he's only asking questions and things like that. Where Tyler Tucker goes as the most popular non Trump voice on the most extreme part of the maga. Whatever. I don't even want to call it. Right. Because that, that, that implicates us and I want no implication here. But whatever it is, the extremism of the populist movement. Yeah, okay. Yeah. Where he goes is going to be very instructive.
- [82:42]
Seth Mandel
Yeah, well, he's, I mean, sure, he's.
- [82:44]
John Podhoretz
Telling Trump you don't want demonic force, I now believe, and therefore Trump is somehow giving into the demon.
- [82:51]
Seth Mandel
He told, he told Piers Morgan that Israel's intentionally killing women and children.
- [82:55]
Matthew Continetti
The guy who he had on his show, the historian who he had on his show to talk about how terrible and evil Churchill was a while ago, remember that? And you know, the wrong guys won World War II or whatever, this whole, the whole alternative history of World War II, that guy was all over social media yesterday saying, all right, so the plan is we let Israel destroy territory and then Americans have to pick up the check. Right. So that's, that's the, that's the Tucker world view of this, which is we, Israel is going to. Israel is, you know, doing what they want to do and we're just going to walk after them in the street with a pooper scooper.
- [83:39]
John Podhoretz
That's why Trump said. That's what's interesting about what Trump did here. Because I think, not that I think that's a fair, obviously think that that's a fair analysis. But, but the Colin Powell theory that if you broke it, you buy it. Right. So Trump is proposing this. He says throughout what he is saying, we're going to have an ownership position here. They're paying for it. All these incredibly rich countries in the Middle east are going to pay for this? Yeah.
- [84:13]
Seth Mandel
We haven't gotten quite into the accounting.
- [84:16]
John Podhoretz
Yet, but again, let's talk real estate. Can I tell you another New York City real estate story to New York City that will explain Trump? One of the great positions to be in if you are a real estate dynasty in America, is that you are known for your reliability in being able to complete projects. And this is a huge issue in real estate, which is so wildly speculative. So you have $100 million site, it costs $250 million to build the building. You've borrowed money to buy the site, you borrow money to buy the steel and stuff like that. There's a real estate reversal. Something happens. Da, da, da. Suddenly, you and the banks that you, as a developer, you're broke and you can't finish the building. And the bank has to take over and figure out what to do with this half completed site. And then you're One of these 10 families in America who can be trusted to actually do this, get this disaster off your hands and turn it around, at least make it into something that's not a loss that you can break even on or save yourself from penury. And then you're in the catbird seat and you say, well, I'm not putting any money in and you're going to give me 25%, I'm going to build it. You're paying for everything. And my cost is I'm getting 25 to 50% of the gain. Take it or leave it. I don't have to build, I don't have to finish your building. This is the joy of having become a successful real estate firm, which Trump's firm never was. Trump is the other person. Trump is the person the bank has to take over from and then find somebody to finish the building. Okay, so Trump is basically saying, America, the Middle east has gone broke and the project is half, is, you know, quarter completed, Gaza's destroyed. So here's what we're going to do. You're going to pay for the reconstruction of Gaza. You're all a bunch of Arabs. These are Arabs. I don't care about any of them. I don't care who lives or die. You know, it's bad, whatever, I don't care. But you pay for it, we'll build it, and then we're going to take an ownership position for zero. That's what we want. That is Trump's vision of the new Middle east and the Gaza that will be the Riviera is America doesn't pay, they pay. And then we get all the Profit because we're the ones who can complete the job. Okay, that's real estate analogy number one, real estate analogy. Why does Trump care? Why is he focused on this as a real estate deal? What is it that he likes? And I'm going to tell you a quick story, and that is the story of Television City. Television City is a site in Manhattan between 52nd and 72nd Streets on the far west side of Manhattan. Empty, dead. There were train yards, there were train tracks, Nothing was there for decades. And Trump had this vision of a, you know, like Mo Green. He had a vision there's a way station there in the middle of nowhere. He saw gleaming towers, he saw television studios for abc, CBS and NBC, new spanking sites, office buildings, apartment buildings. Television City right there on the Hudson River. And he didn't get it because he was right. He saw it first and then everybody else swooped in, kind of took, took over. He ended up with three buildings that had the word Trump on them. When all was said and done and then the buildings voted to take his, his name off them. You may remember in 2017, people who owned these apartments said they didn't want Trump' on their building. Okay, this is Television City. He gets to build. Finally, it's clear nobody else has title to it. You know, like these real estate of other real estate developers who play zero sum games with him in New York and kept winning and he kept losing these sites, no one's going to contest with him for his site. Finally, at the age of 80, he will have his masterpiece. His two and a half miles, three miles of beach where he can build the, he can build the project of his dreams and not pay for it because Gutter is going to pay for it with its sovereign wealth fund. It's his dream come true. It is the fulfillment. It brings everything together. Geopolitics, New York City, real estate development, his ritual humiliations over time by banks, everything, all of this.
- [89:10]
Seth Mandel
I've been thinking a lot about a line from Ernest Hemingway novel the Sun Also Rises. Isn't it pretty to think so? I just. All these things that are happening, it's pretty to think so, you know, that's the horror, actually.
- [89:29]
John Podhoretz
See, this is where I think ending and crushing morosity would be that we just had this, we've had this 12, 14, 15 hours of world altering idea, you know, like we are, we've cut the Gordian knot of the. Trump has just cut the Gordian knot of the Middle East. It's not about the peace process, it's not about the suffering. It's not about what Israel needs to do, not to kill as many people as it's been killing. And we need to make sure that everyone is stable and we can't be destabilizing things and all of that. We're in a new vocabulary. Problem is that doesn't often go well. As we know from. As we know.
- [90:11]
Seth Mandel
Yeah. When you're in revolutionary times, it's always unclear where you will end up. But maybe just to end I should make the Sun Also Rise as my recommendation of the day. I am, I am a Edge millennial Hemingway fan and the Sun Also Rises was the first Hemingway I read at a pretty young age. I think I was 13 years old and I didn't understand. I didn't get it at all. I just love the words. But I've since revisited it several times and get, I now understand the existentialist message of it. But if you haven't read any Ernest Hemingway, pick one up. That's my recommendation.
- [90:53]
John Podhoretz
You are. And what is the epigraph of that book? You are all a lost generation, right?
- [90:58]
Seth Mandel
Yes, that's what Gertrude Stein told him.
- [91:00]
John Podhoretz
Yes, a lost generation. Hopefully that the lost generation of the Gazans will be, will be found as a result of what Trump has done today and that there is in fact going to be a new path and a creative path forward here. There's no reason not to hope for it, though God knows there tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of people who are desperately hoping that it doesn't come to pass so that Donald Trump is not remembered as one of the great leaders, you know, of, of in American history, which is what he will be remembered as. If any, if, if one, if, if one fifth of his vision here comes to pass, he will be in fact the most transformative president since, since Reagan and possibly since the Second World War.
- [91:46]
Seth Mandel
So I mean, he's already kind of put his mark on history and it's got we're Only on day 16, as Seth, as Seth pointed out. So.
- [92:00]
John Podhoretz
So we'll be back tomorrow. For Matt, Seth and Abe, I'm John Pot Horowitz. Keep the camel.