Failure to Launch

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: "Failure to Launch"

Date: March 17, 2026
Host: John Podhoretz
Panelists: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel, Jonathan Schanzer (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)

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Episode Overview

This episode analyzes dramatic recent events in the ongoing regional conflict centered on Iran and its proxies, focusing on the assassination of senior Iranian leaders, Israel’s campaign against Iranian and Lebanese militant capacities, and shifting Middle Eastern geopolitics. The cast discusses Israel's decapitation strategy, prospects for regime change in Iran, the durability of Iran’s alliances, the war’s political consequences, and the shifting stance of regional and global actors. The tone is characteristically skeptical, analytical, and—unusually for these guests—increasingly optimistic about the impact of recent military operations.

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Main Discussion Points and Insights

1. Major Developments in the War Against Iran (01:11)

• Assassinations in Iranian Leadership

  • Key figures Ali Larjani (head of the Supreme National Security Council, former presumed successor to Khamenei) and a high-ranking Basij (internal security) official named Soleimani were assassinated (01:11–02:35).
    • Schanzer: “The guy that Ali Khamenei had hoped to steer the ship is now no longer with us... things are not going well for the regime” (01:39).

• Destruction of Missile Production

  • Israel reportedly eliminated Iran’s facilities for producing long-range ballistic missiles. Whatever missiles remain are all that Iran possesses; capacity to launch large-scale attacks has dropped by 90% (03:00–05:02).
    • Schanzer: “Whatever they’ve got is all they’ve got. This is now use it or lose it... the number of launches out of Iran has already dropped; it’s like a 90% drop from the first day” (03:37).

Notable Quote:

“This one was a real shot in the arm to the Iranian people as they now weigh their next moves and consider getting back out into the streets to resume their protest movement, or dare I say revolution.”
— Jonathan Schanzer (02:35)

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2. The North: Israel vs. Hezbollah in Lebanon (06:44)

• Southern Lebanon Offensive

  • Israel initiates significant operations in southern Lebanon to reduce rocket threat windows to seconds—too short for civilians to react (08:23 onward).
    • Schanzer: “The goal is to retake all of southern Lebanon to prevent that 8 second rocket threat ... [and] to continue to batter ... Hezbollah’s stronghold” (08:23–10:29).

• Reduction of Hezbollah Arsenal

  • Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles have been reduced by up to 80%—from 150,000 to about 30,000 projectiles (11:29–12:02).
    • Schanzer: “This is essentially what Hamas had at the beginning of this war, but these are far more advanced… some of these can hit Tel Aviv or Dimona” (12:05–12:22).

Memorable Exchange:

Podhoretz: “So the fact that you (Schanzer) have come on and said what you have just said is itself a landmark moment in the history of the world, if you want.”
(14:07)

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3. Regional Politics and Coalition Dynamics (12:51–14:07; 15:25; 20:23)

• Regional Support for Finishing Off Iranian Proxies
  • Gulf states and even the Lebanese government allegedly support Israel’s effort to eliminate Hezbollah and disempower Iran, signaling an extraordinary regional pivot.
    • Schanzer: “Gulf states are for the first time saying, ‘Finish the job, Mr President.’ ... The Lebanese are like, ‘Let’s get this over with already.’” (12:51)

Key Insight:

“There is now an understanding that this cannot continue, which is interesting because it’s also what we’re hearing from the Gulf states right now”
— Jonathan Schanzer (12:51)

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4. Regime Change Tactics: Decapitation Strategy (20:23–25:07)

• State-Level ‘Decapitation’
  • Israel’s targeted killings have escalated from non-state actors (Hamas, Hezbollah) to full-on regime figures in Iran, reflecting a shift in doctrine.
    • Schanzer: “[There was] a decision reached ... that the regime had to go and ... it meant decapitation ... going for the head” (22:02–23:07).

Discussion: The New Ayatollah’s Sexuality and Regime Legitimacy

• Rumors surfaced that the new Supreme Leader may be gay—an existential challenge for the regime, given its rhetoric and doctrine (24:07–29:53).
  • Podhoretz: “If that view has remained the orthodox view ... and it is known ... young Khamenei is gay ... we have a massive regime legitimacy issue right in the middle of the war.” (27:11)

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5. Internal Iranian Instability, Capabilities, and Endgame Scenarios (32:12–47:46)

• Iranian Regime Stretched and Isolated

  • Panelists assess what remains of regime capability: drones, short-range rockets, internal repression—but rapid leadership attrition and intelligence leaks have destabilized Tehran (32:12–35:41).
    • Schanzer: “The more they’re thinned out ... the more these people are going to doubt whether they can continue to wage this war” (32:12–32:59).

• Remaining Threats: Drones & Proxies

  • Iran’s drone capacity remains significant and is cheap to deploy, complicated by Chinese and Russian supply lines. Yet, curious lack of escalation from the Houthis (Yemen) and Iraqi militias puzzles analysts; potential ‘reserve’ deterrents (35:41–40:10).

• Trump’s Approach: No Fixed End Date

  • Emphasizing flexibility and resilience, Trump appears resolved to see operations through, undeterred by oil prices or media pressure (40:30–49:09).
    • Podhoretz: “He has crossed some Rubicon in his head ... where he’s like, we’re just gonna finish this” (53:00).

Notable Quote:

“From a military perspective, it’s all going really well. And, you know, Trump is not sharing the details... He has just not allowed himself to get sucked into this.”
— Jonathan Schanzer (55:55)

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6. The Media Bubble and International Reactions (55:55–63:27)

• Contrast Between Reality and Media Coverage

  • Panel bemoans persistent negative coverage despite picture of Iranian regime’s attrition:
    • Podhoretz: “It is as though people are saying ... the Iranians, who are clearly dazed, confused, ... are holding their own ... The Dark Knight is really gonna—when he sinks his teeth into Arthur’s arm, then you're gonna know ... It is very weird." (56:59)

• Qatari Policy Shift & Media Messaging

  • Al Jazeera article headline unexpectedly aligns with US/Israeli perceptions ("the strategy against Iran is working"):
    • Schanzer: "The Qataris are finally beginning to realize ... they’re just getting the beating they deserved” (63:27).

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7. Social Media, Information Ops, and Chinese Influence (64:43–66:40)

• TikTok & Foreign Influence
  • Discussion of whether pro-Iranian or anti-Israel content has dropped off in light of current fighting; highlights China’s central role in shaping algorithmic visibility and regional narratives.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• Jonathan Schanzer on the Decapitation Strategy:
  “There was a decision reached ... that the regime had to go and ... it meant decapitation ... going for the head.” (22:02)
• John Podhoretz on Regime Legitimacy Crisis:
  “If it is known that ... young Khamenei is gay... we have a massive regime legitimacy issue right in the middle of the war.” (27:11)
• Jonathan Schanzer on Israeli Intelligence and Operations:
  “The Israelis have incredible intelligence that they're still wielding and the precision weapons to be able to use it in ways that will be beneficial to the war.” (14:47)
• Abe Greenwald on Trump’s Legacy:
  “This is the kind of thing that will shape the way that people talk about your presidency for years and years to come.” (42:20)
• John Podhoretz on Media Perceptions:
  "It is as though people are saying ... the Iranians are clearly dazed ... but 'the Dark Knight is really holding his own' ... It's very weird." (56:59)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:11: Major assassinations in Iran announced
• 03:00: Destruction of Iranian ballistic missile production
• 08:23: Israeli operations in Southern Lebanon begin
• 11:40: Assessment of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal reductions
• 12:51: Regional states’ pivot to supporting defeat of Iran/Hezbollah
• 14:07: Panel notes Schanzer’s unusual optimism
• 22:02: Shift to regime-level decapitation strategy
• 27:11: Potential regime crisis over new Ayatollah’s rumored sexuality
• 32:12: Assessment: regime's remaining capabilities and instability
• 35:41: Drone war and the mystery of inactive Iranian proxies
• 40:30: Trump’s strategic patience, no deadline for ending war
• 55:13: Integration between US and Israeli operations
• 56:59: Satirical analogy: media perceptions vs. military facts
• 63:27: Qatari policy, fallout for regional Hamas supporters
• 64:43: Foreign influence operations via TikTok and Chinese platforms
• 67:17: Upcoming FDD Brief with Scooter Libby addressing domestic counter-narratives

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Conclusion

The episode underscores a dramatic, largely positive shift in the regional conflict: unprecedented attrition of Iranian leadership and military power, major blows to Hezbollah, and a surprising realignment of Arab state attitudes toward Israeli military objectives. The panel highlights the disconnect between negative media narratives and hard facts on the ground, the strategic patience now prevalent in US policy, and looming uncertainties about internal Iranian turmoil and post-conflict reconstruction. Keen observations, sharp humor, and expert insight make this discussion especially engaging for listeners interested in contemporary Middle Eastern dynamics and US foreign policy.

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Transcript

[Abe Greenwald]

Hope for the best, expect the worst Some preach your pain Some die of thirst the way of knowing which way it's going Hope for the best Expect the worst Hope for the best.

[John Podhoretz]

Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily podcast. Today is Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 2026. Happy St. Patrick's Day to everyone who observes. I'm John Pothoric, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me, as always, executive editor Abe Greenwald. Hi, Abe.

[Seth Mandel]

Hi, John.

[John Podhoretz]

Senior editor Seth Mandel. Hi, Seth.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

Hi, John.

[John Podhoretz]

And joining us today, Commentary's contributing editor and pooba at the foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Jonathan Schanzer. Hi, John.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Hey, John.

[John Podhoretz]

Is it foundation for the Defense of Democracies or is it foundation for Defense of Democracies the law? Is there a.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

The. There's no the.

[John Podhoretz]

There is no the beginning or the middle. No articles. Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yes.

[John Podhoretz]

Okay. Momentous day yesterday or this morning, or overnight in the war. Huge developments in the war. We have the assassination of the. I don't know what you would call him. Sort of like the civilian head of the government now, Ali Larjani, or sort of like the. One of the triumvirate leaders of Iran,

[Jonathan Schanzer]

technically the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic, which does. It doesn't sound as important as the guy that was tapped by Ali Khamenei to be his successor before he got whacked. And so now the guy that Ali Khamenei had hoped to steer the ship is now no longer with us. And it does seem like things are

[Abe Greenwald]

not going well for the regime.

[John Podhoretz]

Meanwhile, also the head of the. Is it the Basij? The Basij. Another guy named Soleimani, but apparently no relation to the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Soleimani, who was assassinated in 2020. This is a new, different Soleimani, assassinated overnight, thus beheading the leadership of the Internal Security Police. Do I have that right?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah. Or maybe more simply the repression apparatus. So this one was a real shot in the arm to the Iranian people as they now weigh their next moves and consider getting back out into the streets to resume their protest movement, or dare I say revolution. I think this one feels like a. Like a momentous occasion for them.

[John Podhoretz]

And the third announcement, which was sort of a leak, semi announcement, not quite clear, that the Israelis believe that they have now eliminated the Iranian ballistic missile capacity entirely, meaning that either they have. Either Iran has fired off its last ballistic missile, that it has in its arrow, in its quiver, or that they have not only done that or some version of that, but have taken out the facilities in which the ballistic missiles were either being moved out or, or reconstructed or something like. Do I have that right?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

So that's a little fuzzier. The way that I understand it is that Israel has now destroyed all of the facilities used for producing new missiles. So in other words, whatever they've got is all they've got. This is now use it or lose it for the regime. And that's important because, you know, according to at least some of the folks that I've talked to, the total number of missiles are somewhere between 500 and 1,000, probably closer to that 500 number that are left, that are left in the hands of the regime.

[Seth Mandel]

Is this short range too?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

No, no, no. Long range. This is the stuff that you know will get, has to get put out on those launchers that the Israelis in the United States are hunting right now. The short range stuff is going to be harder. And that's, you know, that's the discomfort of the Gulf Arab states. They're dealing with that and they're not going to probably be able to end that anytime soon. But these big missile launches, this is what will I think enable the Israelis to probably start to focus more on the northern front. As the number of launches out of Iran continues to drop. It has already dropped and the Israelis have noticed this, that it's like a 90% drop from the first day. They're able to squeeze off a couple every day as opposed to several dozen. I think actually it might have even

[Abe Greenwald]

been 160something on the first day. Now we're really talking about a handful. So progress, which is not what we're hearing in the mainstream media, but absolutely seeing progress right now.

[John Podhoretz]

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[Seth Mandel]

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[John Podhoretz]

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[Jonathan Schanzer]

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[Jonathan Schanzer]

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[John Podhoretz]

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[Jonathan Schanzer]

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[John Podhoretz]

And to move north rather than east, Israel is aggressively moving on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which is important because Hezbollah has ballistic missiles and short range missiles. And the, because Hezbollah is so close. The, for example, the siren time between the, the alert that you have a missile coming to you from Lebanon and the impact is something like eight seconds. So it's a distinction. You can't get to the shelter in a tech like, I mean, you, you could if you were Jesse Owens, but, you know, if you're not Jesse Owens, you're not getting there in eight seconds. Does that date me that I'm making a reference to somebody who's like, 90 years ago was famous? I don't even know who's a famous runner now. Okay, except Shanzer, who is a runner. Maybe Shanzer could make it in eight seconds, but. But I couldn't anyway. But Israel is. Israel and Lebanon made a ceasefire deal at the end of the Biden administration that the Lebanese government would quiet Hezbollah on Israel's northern border. And when the war started 17 days ago, or however long ago it was that the war started, Hezbollah started firing. And this put the Lebanese government in a terrible quandary because Israel basically said, look, either you do what you said you were going to do, or we're going to have to go in and mow the lawn and take out what we can take out. So how is that going?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

So it's going, I think, as well as one could expect when you're fighting two fronts at the same time. And I think there are a lot of people who are wondering whether Israel can juggle both of these fronts and potentially have other ones erupt. It's not like this thing's over. So I think there's concern about strategic overreach. But as of yesterday, the Israelis are starting to call up reservists. They have limited operations right now in southern Lebanon. I think the goal is to retake all of southern Lebanon to prevent that 8 second, you know, rocket threat that you just described. And Then, you know, to continue to batter the area known as Dahia. This is the southern suburb of Beirut that has just gotten absolutely hammered. This is the stronghold of Hezbollah. But then I think that the, the goal after that is to go after those long range rockets from the north of the country as well as the, they're known as PGMs, the precision guided munitions, which are lethal and we've not yet seen a lot of them trotted out by Hezbollah.

[Abe Greenwald]

But it's kind of the thing that the Israelis fear the most. This is, I think this is the big one as far as Israel is concerned. They're going to try to wipe out Hezbollah this round.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

And what's interesting is that we're seeing some efforts, namely by the French, although the French have tried to deny it subsequently. But they want to have some kind of a mutual recognition normalization deal that postpones this and that leaves Hezbollah's dismantling to some multinational force. And you know, I think Israel was and is sort of tempted by the idea of normalization with Lebanon, but my guess is that it's going to happen regardless. And the Israelis would rather be the ones that dismantle what was once the most formidable terrorist group in Iran's orbit and now I think is really beginning to crumble under the weight of these Israeli operations.

[John Podhoretz]

Would you say that? I mean, what's interesting about Lebanon as opposed to Iran is that it's not just a fight from the air. There are boots on the ground, Israeli soldiers who are crossing the border and who seem intent on this classic move that Israel has to make every 20 years, which is that they occupy the 20 kilometers south of the Latani river and create a buffer zone that prevents Hezbollah from using that territory to fire at them with these missiles that are very close. Now, the Hezbollah missile. I was going to say archive, but that's not the right word. Like it's Hezbollah arsenal, excuse me, is kind of like mind bogglingly huge, if I remember.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah. It was before the war that erupted on October 8th when Hezbollah jumped in right after Hamas, it stood at around

[Abe Greenwald]

150,000 missiles and rockets.

[John Podhoretz]

Projectiles of some sort.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Projectiles, yeah. And so now what we're hearing is

[Abe Greenwald]

that it's maybe 20% of that. So which is great, right, in terms of reduction.

[John Podhoretz]

30,000. But it's still 30,000.

[Abe Greenwald]

Yes. For all the math majors. Yeah.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

It's really, it's still enormous.

[Abe Greenwald]

Right.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I mean, this is essentially what Hamas

[Abe Greenwald]

had at the beginning of this war

[Jonathan Schanzer]

before Israel started going after it. And, but again, These are far more advanced.

[Abe Greenwald]

Some of them are larger with.

[John Podhoretz]

Larger than the Hamas rockets, you mean?

[Abe Greenwald]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[John Podhoretz]

I mean.

[Abe Greenwald]

Yeah, yeah. These are. These are more advanced. Again, longer range. You know, some of these can hit Tel Aviv. Some of them are designed to try to reach Dimona, you know, where Israel's nuclear facilities are, and then the PGMs, which, you know, have the GPS guidance and some of the other things that make them far more accurate. All of this is, I think, what the Israelis are looking to just remove. And what's really fascinating is this is

[Jonathan Schanzer]

exactly what the Lebanese government wants. I mean, they don't want the war, they don't want the destruction. But I think there is now an understanding that this cannot continue, which is interesting because it's also what we're hearing from the Gulf states right now as well. There is this understanding now across the region that what is happening is just not tolerable, and that the Gulf states are for the first time saying, finish the job, Mr. President. Right when they're talking to Trump and the Lebanese are like, we're sick of this Hezbollah thing. Let's get this over with already. And so that kind of mentality right now I find fascinating. It's a pivot, and it is such. I mean, I'm going to. This is probably a theme today, but when you see all the negative coverage of this conflict, I just don't think that it matches the reality in terms of what we're hearing from friends and partners, or not even friends and partners in the Arab world. And it does not reflect the severe beating that the Islamic Republic and its proxies have taken over the last 17 days. It's really remarkable to watch. I think it's important.

[John Podhoretz]

Can I just. Seth, let me just say one thing, which is this is very important because, of course, Jonathan Schanzer, two longtime listeners of this podcast, is familiarly known as Eeyore comes on. While we're all cheerful about how things are going, goes well, you better become. I don't know. I'm worried about this. I'm worried about that. So the fact that you have come on and said what you have just said is itself a landmark moment in the history of the world, if you want.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I mean, I can tell you about all the things that I'm worried about.

[John Podhoretz]

Not yet. We'll get to that. I just want to say you led with something positive. That's. That's all I'm saying.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

This is this. Look, I mean, let me just say this is a huge day in the war. To have the head of the Basij and Ali Larajani taken out same day. Right. The Israelis have incredible intelligence that they're still wielding and the precision weapons to be able to use the intelligence in ways that will be beneficial to the war. The people of Iran, I think, are, you know, I think encouraged today. You know, Hezbollah looks like it's, you know, starting to buckle a little bit. It's kind of hard to complain this morning, but I can definitely muster up some complaints. Whenever you're ready.

[John Podhoretz]

One. One final point, and then I want to get to Seth, which is, can you guys. I'm not gonna ask you a question. Jonathan knows the answer, but I'm gonna. But. Cause this. I just looked this up, and so I'm kind of startled. A lot of talk about the Straits of Hormuz. Oh, the Iranians are playing the long game. They know that Hormuz is the ball game. It's all Hormuz. And they're going to control the Hormuz and we're going to have to make these terrible choices. And, oh, boy, they're in the catbird seat. They don't look like they're in the catbird seat, but they're in the catbird seat. When was the last time that Iran felt fired on anything in the Strait of Hormuz? Anybody know? Five days ago. There has been no military activity from Iran aimed at shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, maybe they don't have targets or they're letting the ships in that they want to let in because of side deals, but Hormuz is not like a charnel house of destruction and death and doom and the Bermuda Triangle of world oil shipping.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

No, this is perception, John. Right? This is fear that what happened a few days ago can happen again. And so what actually the analysis is, is that the Islamic Republic is doing this on the cheap. I mean, and they're doing it just based on market concerns. They're somehow able to get away with this and they have not yet been truly challenged. So, you know, I think it's now, you know, it's Pete Hegseth's move. You know, I think this is time for him to tear off his shirt and do some push ups and then order whatever he's going to do next.

[John Podhoretz]

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[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

No, I'm just wondering. The Lara Johnny taking out Larjani is obviously a huge deal, but it's also evidence that we're now doing the thing with an actual state that Israel had been doing with terrorist organizations. Right. The decapitation strategy, the targeted assassination strategy, excuse me, gave rise to decades, a decades long debate over whether it matters, you know, how much you gain versus how much you lose by taking out these leaders and all. Can you explain the differences with a state, this happening with a state now? I mean, you know, we, our frame of reference for targeted assassination is Hamas, let's say, or Hezbollah. It's not an actual state of 90 million people. What does this do to the perception of the war in the region? What does it do for people in Iran? This, you know, this, this game of every time a new person pops his head up, it gets lopped off.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah, I mean, it's an interesting question. I will say the Israelis have definitely been trending in this direction for a time. I mean, you know, when they took out the Houthi leaders, I mean a lot of people call the Houthis terrorist group. They're essentially the government in North Yemen. I mean, no one's recognized the full split yet, but it's a state. Right. And so the Israelis did that, I guess it was last year. And then obviously you had Donald Trump take out Qasem Soleimani back in 2020, the other Soleimani.

[Abe Greenwald]

And so I think we've seen this moving in this direction. I think from the US perspective, I think we're probably not as eager to do this. I think there's sort of a norm that we're worried about. The Israelis, not so much. And I think they're going to be on the war path for as long as they can be taking out these top leaders. There was a decision reached probably three years ago, maybe a little longer, that the regime had to go and that they started actually planning for this. And it meant decapitation, but it really just meant bringing down this regime at all costs. And I think this is a turning point for the Israeli strategy. For the longest time, you know, we heard about how the Israelis were fighting the arms of the octopus and not going for the head or. Right. I mean, there are all the different ways that Israeli leaders have described this sort of matrix of proxies.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

But, I mean, you know, it made

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

exactly that criticism against Bibi. Right, Correct. That he said Bibi kept going for the arms instead of the head.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Right. And so now no longer they're going for the head. And you can. You can get the sense right now that this strategy is working. The question is, you know, what does working look like in the end? You know, do they try to do some kind of a Venezuela thing? Obviously, it's not as neat or clean as what happened with Maduro. But with enough of these leaders taken out, can they find some kind of pragmatist within the system that would be willing to take over and work with the United States in some shape or form? That, by the way, will not sit well with the people of Iran, and it may not sit well with the Israelis. But, you know, this could still be where Trump tries to steer things, or we see the entire edifice collapse, and then the chaos comes after, and that will lead to some new leader. But I think there's a lot of unknowns that happen in between, you know, that moment and stasis, since we're still

[Seth Mandel]

in the pre doom and gloom part of the show. Excuse me, I want to ask a question here. The reports that the. The new ayatollah, the intelligence is gay. Is this. Now, is this a legitimate piece of intelligence, or is this some sort of psyop?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Well, I think it's important, and I will refer to John Podhoritz's tweet, I guess it was from yesterday. Does this mean that he's gonna hang himself in public? I mean, it is sort of this kind of crazy irony, if it's true, that this guy just is naturally and inherently an abomination to the Islamic Republic and its ideology. That in and of itself would be

[Abe Greenwald]

a real blow to the legitimacy of

[Jonathan Schanzer]

this new supreme leader.

[Abe Greenwald]

So it's undermining.

[John Podhoretz]

Can I just make the point that this is genuinely no joke, with a reference to our least favorite university, Columbia. If you remember a lot of the trouble at Columbia that was eventually stirred up 20 years ago over the coming of Ahmadinejad coming to speak at Columbia and the activation of, among others, an undergraduate named Barry Weiss, who led the student revolt against the invitation by Columbia's president to have Ahmadinejad speak on campus, that the leading professor on the campus who was the advocate of this in the what was then called the Oriental Studies Department, was a professor named Joseph Massad. And according to Joseph Massad, there were no homosexuals in Iran. There could be no homosexuals in Iran. Because Shiite.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

You mean according to Ahmadinejad.

[John Podhoretz]

No, to Mossad.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

Oh, okay. Because Ahmadinejad said that in his speech also.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

No.

[John Podhoretz]

Oh, that's right, he did. And Mossad proceeded it by saying there was no such thing as a homosexual in Iran. So this is not just us having a ha ha. They're homophobic and now they have to deal with a gay leader. Yah. Like this is doctrine that regime apologists, as you said, the sitting president at the time, 19, 18 years ago, said was simply a sort of. I don't know what you would call it, like a physical impossibility. There were. There were no such. This could not be. So if that view has remained the orthodox view of the Shiite leaders and it is known that, in fact, young Khamenei is gay and has indulged these proclivities and that this rumor that his father did not want him to succeed Khamenei sr. Because of this, we have a massive regime legitimacy issue right in the middle of the war. That raises questions about how he was actually appointed by this panel who did it. How could they even have appointed him if he is as severely injured as intelligence suggests he might be? So he was just put in there because he has the name and isn't going to make any trouble for Larjani to do whatever Larjani wants to do. Except now Larjani is dead. So there is no. There is no. He's not a front for Larjani anymore because Larjani front is ahead is a tombstone. So this is a bit. I think this is a big thing. Like, it's a. It's a shockingly big thing. It's not just like Paris Hilton outing somebody, you know, on the way on the Web. It has genuine regime consequences.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

It potentially does. I mean, you know, I think, you know, the Internet in. In Iran's been shut down now for 17 days. I mean, for. For anyone who cares about Internet freedom right now and, you know, anybody that cares about human rights inside Iran or anywhere else, it's really just amazing that there's really not been a peep about this. So the people right now in Iran are operating largely in the dark. There were just operations, by the way, to confiscate Starlink terminals. This is the satellite system, the private satellite system that Iranians have been using to, you know, smuggle information in and out of Iran. And so anyway, I mean, I think I still have questions about how this is being absorbed by the Iranian people, But I think 80% of Iran could care less which way this guy swings. I mean, that's kind of the silly part about all of this, is that most Iranians don't care. It's the IRGC themselves and the regime itself and the clerics. These are the people that are wrestling with it. And that's what's fascinating right now is that, you know, I would. I would pay money to see some of these, like, WhatsApp groups where they're like, oh, my God, did you hear this? Like, what about Mujtaba? What are we doing about this? This is the stuff that kind of would be fun for me because I think trying to, you know, make sure that their heads don't explode from this. From this news, that's. I think that's what they're struggling with right now.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

I just want to say, I think that it's the. I think it's the Iranians that put out the rumors because they're pinkwashing the regime

[John Podhoretz]

very deep.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I see what you did.

[John Podhoretz]

Very deep cut. Very deep cut. So the. The triumvirate that Larjani and Khamenei apparently are two of has a third.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Masoud possession, President of Iran.

[John Podhoretz]

Right. Okay. The President of Iran is. Now, that was the position that Ahmadinejan held 20 years ago. He is not a comfortable person today. They spent 17 days tracking Larjani to kill him. Larjani, of course, knowing that they were trying to kill him, should have been able to evade assassination if, you know, you should be able to hide. And this is really like, boy, there's nowhere to. There's nowhere to hide. So politically, what happens if Pescheskian gets it in the next day or two? You don't. The. The. The Ayatollah is not. Is out of commission at best. From what we can tell, there's no head of the Council. There will be no president. There's a really interesting question about, like, what it means for the regime to be surviving under these conditions except in zombie entropic condition, in which it's simply going of itself with no direction and no protection and no ability. If this ballistic missile stuff is true, with the exception of the drones, that it is not, that it is aiming elsewhere at targets that don't really matter. They have no ability to project force, except maybe driving around in trucks with guns, making sure that people don't come out to the streets and protest. Right?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

So, I mean, I think here's where there's the good news and then there's the unknown and maybe A little bit of the doctor Doom, Eeyore stuff starts to come out. But bear with me, number one, I mean there possession, yes, is an endangered species. I've got questions about Abbasa Ragchee, the foreign minister who's become essentially the spokesperson for the regime during this war. He's kind of Baghdad Bob with a suit. And you get a sense that he's kind of the calm voice that is kind of telling everybody, at least out in the rest of the world, we're fine, we've got this under control, we're going to win this war. So I do wonder what happens to him next. Obviously there's leadership within the irgc, which I think is really what matters most. But the more they're thinned out, I think the more these people are gonna, they're gonna doubt whether they can continue to wage this war. You know, when you look at what happened to Larjani, he was apparently hit in a safe house. So apparently it wasn't safe. The Soleimani hit was apparently in some kind of tent structure and somehow the Israelis found him out, you know, out in the field. So this is bad news for the regime.

[Abe Greenwald]

And I think that's where I want to focus first. Now if you ask me kind of what the regime has moving forward, if their ranks are thinned out and they don't have ballistic missiles, what they have are drones and short range rockets and shoulder fired stuff. And what that means is they can harass their immediate neighborhood.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

And there I think we steer back to the Hormuz crisis. And yes, the regime is not actively, you know, destroying ships, but they've apparently fired on something like 16 or even 20 according to the reports that we've seen so far. And that's enough to spook everybody for a while. And it is forcing the United States to deploy additional forces. And we've got, you know, I think questions about what the strategy is moving forward. The other part of this is that if the drone and rocket strikes don't cease soon in the Arab Gulf states, I can't imagine there'd be. We've already seen some of the oil facilities damaged in the UAE and in Bahrain. And you know, the Qataris are, you know, I think they've got less than 50% of the people that usually work on natural gas. I mean there's things have slowed to a crawl there as well. Sheba oil field, where they produce like a million barrels per day out of Saudi Arabia, that's under constant threat from Iranian drones. This is the next phase of this and that needs to be solved for. But I think when you can, you know, right now there's a sprawl of this war across the Middle East, I think you can then begin to contain it and contain it still. But there's a lot of danger in these last phases because if the Iranian regime is like a wounded animal and they're thinking, you know what, we're going to bring down the rest of the region with us, including the oil and the energy, this is a crisis that we can't afford. Nobody wants it. Certainly Donald Trump is trying to avoid this at all costs. So I do think that as we start to get closer to an end game, we're going to need to see a strategy for how to end this chaos in the immediate region surrounding Iran.

[John Podhoretz]

So let's move to the drones, because I've been being, people have been asking about me about this and I'm, you know, I'm not an expert in this stuff. So they're cheap and they're effective. They fly low, so they're not easy to intercept. And there are sort of a couple of drone related issues, one of which is geopolitical. And people were asking me last night, where is Yemen? Like, Yemen was, of course, firing drones on Israel during the, during the Gaza war, flying long distances, right? Like 900 miles or something from Yemen. Had a couple of direct hits in Tel Aviv with these drones. One pretty close to the, to the headquarters of the Israeli military, like a block away. Where's Yemen? Why aren't they in this fight? Are they like, keeping themselves in reserve to jump out the Houthis and like, bedevil everybody? You know, are they like a final strike capability or is something going on that has quieted and silenced them? Do you, do you, do you have any idea about what the story is there?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Yeah. So, I mean, two things to just note. Number one, the drone threat is one that is something that the Iranians can continue to pose for. I don't know, I think a pretty long time. These Shahid drones, the ones that are, you know, frustrating air defenses around the immediate region, they cost like something like 30 to $50,000 to make. They're cheap, all things equal, you know,

[Abe Greenwald]

relative to the damage that they're able to impose. And so, you know, I want to watch that carefully. People talk about Iran as a, or the Islamic Republic as a drone power in the region, just by the volume, the sheer numbers that they have in their arsenal. So we need to watch that really carefully. By the way, Chinese, I think we should just note they're the number one providers of the drone parts and engines that are being used right now. And I do think that China has some accounting. They're going to have to answer to some of what has happened. I'm guessing that the Arab states, surrounding Arab states are pretty unhappy with the Chinese. And I hope that we can leverage that.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

You know, we're hearing right now that the Xi Jinping Trump summit at the end of the month is likely going to be pushed back. I think Trump had hoped to kind of walk in and say, look at what we just did in the region. Can't quite do that yet with the crisis that's going on. But the Arab states, the surrounding Arab states have to be aware of the role that China has played and Russia, too, in all of this. And I hope that this begins to tip the balance in the great power competition stuff that we're watching in the region. That's, I think, point number one. As for the, the Houthis, this is actually one of the strange things that I can't account for right now. And none of the analysis that I've seen or heard has really convinced me that the Houthis have made a decision one way or the other whether they're going to sit out or jump in. I've seen the Houthis say that they're going to be there for their brethren in Iran, but they have not done so. But what's really fascinating to me is everything that I've heard over the last seven months since the last war with Iran is that the Houthis now have indigenous capabilities for rocket production, that they don't need the Islamic Republic anymore for

[Abe Greenwald]

the ballistic missiles that they've been firing at Israel. So why are they not firing them? Why are they not firing off some of those drones? Are they deterred? Are they waiting? Nobody seems to be able to answer this right now. Not in Israel and not in the United States. Not the folks that I'm, you know, that I'm usually in touch with. So it's kind of one of the great mysteries. The other one is, of course, the Iraqi militias. They appear to be also deterred or at least concerned about joining the fray. Some of that may actually stem from the political calculus. How the people of Iraq, how the parliament, how the leadership in Iraq would respond.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

But these are two dogs that have not yet barked, and they do concern me as this thing drags on. And if the regime finds itself cornered and on the verge of collapse, is this when they call up the, you know, additional wave or two of of proxies. I don't know

[John Podhoretz]

the. I was relieved based on something that you said on the show last week. You said Israeli sources were telling you that Trump really wanted this rat and would seek to have this mission wrapped up by the 31st of March so that he could have his summit with Xi. So when he said yesterday or the day before, we may have to postpone it, we can always meet later, it's okay. I found that reassuring in the sense that he has figured out that his priority is this. There is nothing matters more than a successful resolution to this war, and that ending it unilaterally on the cheap without a resolution that he can claim is unquestionably a victory for the United States. He's not going down that path. He is going to put everything second to this mission. Did you have the same feeling I did?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Actually, you know, on the one hand, I was, I think, a little bummed out that he didn't have the big victory that I think he wanted to present to Xi Jinping and say, look, we own this neighborhood now. You know, suck it. That, that, that would have been my number one preference. But, but, you know, for him to understand that this is his legacy, right, this is going to be the big thing that, you know, when people talk about his presidency, you know, I mean, there's all the insanity that I think everybody will talk about for a long time, just this mercurial president, et cetera. But in terms of major foreign policy, you know, he was the guy that bombed Iran in the 2025 war, and then he went back to finish the job in 2026 and reshape the region.

[Abe Greenwald]

This is sort of Reagan esque, right? This is the kind of thing that will shape the way that people talk about your presidency for years and years to come. I think he understands this, and I think he understands that. You know, again, I think when the Gulf states are telling him, you know, go for it, Mr. President, I think that speaks volumes to the guy. I think he sees this as transformational. If he can get it done. I don't know if he would use that word, but I think he understands that there are big things, map changing things that are happening right now. If he can get the Islamic Republic to buckle and then drop,

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

is there, is there a sense that, that there really is no rush to putting this war in a box about whether it's over or not? I mean, is there, like, the idea that we, if we and the Israelis are basically able to choose whether each new leader lives or dies and whether the, you know, if the Israelis are taking out Basij checkpoints, you know, they're. If they're literally. I mean, we made this joke last week, but they're directing traffic in Tehran. Is there. Is that part of it, too? Is there, like, a sense that we don't necessarily need a bold, this war is over sort of denouement to this whole conflict that as long as we have the skies over Iran, we can do whatever we want. We can stop them from restarting their nuclear program. We can stop them from, you know, cracking down again or whatever. And that time is actually maybe on our side.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

You know, it's an interesting question. The way that I would kind of frame. There's. There's a couple different ways that you get victory, right? I mean, one is surrender, which, you know, just doesn't happen in, like, warfare too much these days, Right? And especially when you're talking about these sort of jihadist, ideological, you know, actors like the Islamic Republic or Al Qaeda

[Abe Greenwald]

or isis, it ends with kind of

[Jonathan Schanzer]

more of a whimper than a bang. And so I think the theory that

[Abe Greenwald]

we can get a white flag out of this, I'm not sure I buy it. What I do think is probable here. The scenario that I would look for is, you know, the Israelis have already taken out their air Force and their Navy. Domestic missile production, you know, has now been wiped out.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

You know, I think they've got a couple of nuclear issues that they're still needing to wrestle with. There's talk about extracting the enriched uranium and even potentially to put a large contingent of special Forces on the ground in order to be able to do that? I would look for that as kind of a maybe a moment where we say, okay, you know, mission accomplished. But I think there's the kind of the broader question of can you erode the regime's capabilities for all the things that they're doing, the drones, the rockets, the production, the besiege, the irgc. I mean, can you. Can you reduce all of these things to the point where Iran just simply can't pose a threat to the region in the way that it was? And if you can do that, then I think you can say, okay, the military objectives of this war have been met. We are ending our operations. The US Says that the ships start to steam home, and then the Israelis continue to do the asymmetric stuff on the ground when they see opportunities. Shadow war, gray zone, whatever you want to call it, campaign. Between the wars, which I've written about for years now at Commentary, this would be, I Think the beginning of that

[Abe Greenwald]

with the idea of trying to bring the people out, back into the streets and to carry out the final phase of this revolution. I think that's kind of like the John Grisham ending for all of this. But I think there's a lot that needs to happen between now and then. A lot can go wrong. And here's the part where I say the thing that I worry about the most in phase two is the question of unity inside Iran. You know, the minorities within Iran are a patchwork of peoples that, you know,

[Jonathan Schanzer]

let's just say they have some hostility toward the previous regime and this regime, you know, and the Iranians, the majority Iranians are concerned, the Persians are concerned about the Balkanization of Iran in some kind of post regime construction. There's a lot of stuff we can't see how they're getting along. Right. I mean, it's a black box, and we won't actually be able to open it until we say the war is over. The kinetic part of this war is over. And then you start to see what's happening on the streets and how people are interacting with one another and who is a potential leader and whether they're willing to work with Reza Shah Pahlavi and all these other kind of big questions about, you know, post conflict Iran. I think, you know, we're rightly focused on the war right now, but there are a lot of complicated questions that will need to be answered, I think, in due course.

[Seth Mandel]

I think, you know, with that in mind, something to be cognizant of is that because it was, as we've seen, there are so many opponents of this war here in the U.S. speaking of the media mostly, and others on the left and the right, that because there's so much to wrap up in the Ultimate Game, you know, after phase one, then we. Then there's still the question of bringing the people out to topple the regime and what needs to be done in order for that to be safe and then preventing the Balkanization complications that even when, if and when the US Wraps up the phase one part that you were talking about, which would be an extraordinary thing, completely destroying the regime's ability to menace the region, there will be people that will continue to say this war was not a success. Right, because you've got the next phase and the next phase and the next phase, and we should be prepared for that because they're wrong.

[John Podhoretz]

But I want to talk about the orneriness of Trump in relation to that, because he told Liz Landers of PBS NewsHour in a phone conversation, I think Monday night, he said, this is how she phrased it. In her tweet, Trump said, the conflict is, quote, a very small price to pay, unquote, after years of terror from the regime and, quote, the oil prices will drop like a rock as soon as it's over. When I asked for a timeline on those dropping, he said, well, as soon as the war is over, I don't believe that it will be long. And then she asked whether he saw troops on the ground in Iran and whether that might happen. I don't want to say that, he said. When I asked if his thinking has changed on that issue, he said, no, it's not changed, but just didn't want to discuss strategy with a reporter. This is important because yesterday in a press conference before the Kennedy center, before he started talking about the white paint that you use on steel that they're going to use at the Kennedy center, he said, I'm sorry, I lost my train of thought because I decided to make a joke about the paint, so you should really not do that. But yesterday, so he says it's small parts of paint. Yesterday, he said, look, the Straits of Hormuz are not even a problem for us. We import 1% of America's oil comes as a result of transshipment through the Straits of Hormuz. That's why he thinks it is meet and proper for Japan and China and Great Britain and France and Germany and other countries to come in with him to, to escort ships if necessary, to keep the strait open, because we Americans are energy independent and they're not. Now, oil is a fungible substance. The price of oil is a world market question. So, you know, it matters. What if you shut the Straits of Hormuz down? Because then on the open market, a barrel of oil that we buy for $60 a barrel will still cost us $120 a barrel if the oil supply shrinks in terms of futures. Like, we aren't isolated from world oil prices. In fact, American companies would benefit from a sharp reduction in the amount of oil being produced if they're American energy oil producers. So you actually have weird parts of the economy that would gain from this. But I think it's striking that he's saying, I'm going on as long as I want to because whatever price that people are going to pay should be paid because we got to get this regime out of there. And as long as he is ornery, this is my feeling. As long as he doesn't say, I gotta get the hell out of this. Because the oil prices are going too high. He seems to have crossed some Rubicon in his head, in my sense, in the last week, where he's like, we're just gonna finish this. And so, you know, I'm not. And he's weirdly calmer. I said this yesterday, it seems to me. So he's already decided. They're gonna say he didn't do it. They're gonna say he didn't succeed. They cannot play a role in how they can't get into his head. And if you want this mission to succeed, you have to not have a date certain on it, like March 31, which is what Israelis were telling Jonathan last week. You have to have no date certain where he's got to get out, nor some kind of mythical target oil price beyond which the world cannot go to make him pull back. And therefore, what it means for the war to end now comes down to whether he thinks that he has secured the aim of not only ending the regime's ability to project power, but that he has created the conditions, or he and the Israelis have created the conditions which are not going to happen while the war is on, which is what's important for the regime to collapse. And that's why the Israelis are going and going to local besieged headquarters and things like that. They are doing whatever they can to send the message to the Iranian people that they are eliminating the people in Iran who will. Who would kill them if they decided to try to take their country back?

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

Yeah.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

And I think, you know, it's funny, I've been ever since I wrote that piece for Commentary for you, John. The thought that's been on my mind is, is Trump in danger of making any of the kind of mistakes of the Bush administration and where they doubled down on a failed strategy and got themselves deeper and deeper into a hole that they couldn't dig out of? I don't think that's where we are. I mean, and again, I'm surprising myself by not being all doomy and gloomy with you. But, you know, I think this. First of all, we don't have, like, a strategy of trying to, you know, rebuild society. There's no big thing here. It's actually about destroying something, and we've got ample tools to do that, and we're using them, and I think that's important. And I think, you know, Donald Trump has a lot of faith in the US Military, and I think for good reason. It's remarkable what our military has done, and it's remarkable what they've done in

[Abe Greenwald]

tandem with the Israelis. And, I mean, I don't think anybody has talked enough about this. The success story of what's happening right now between the Israeli military and the United States, the way that, you know, Israelis are fighting this war in English, it's their first war in English, and they are, I mean, completely integrated into what's happening here. And I think that's. That's kind of remarkable. So I think from a military perspective, it's all going really well. And, you know, Trump is not sharing the details of what he expects to achieve with anybody. He's just saying, I've got a goal and I'm working toward it, and no one can play gotcha with him. And I think that's kind of. He has just not allowed himself to get sucked into this. I will say the.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

The way in which the media is describing this is almost comical because everybody's saying, okay, well, he's losing the war, but ignoring all of the achievements that he's notched along the way, and without knowing exactly what he's trying to achieve on a tactical level from one day to the next, I mean, they're just projecting the Trump derangement syndrome out there into the world, and people are kind of clapping at it. But it's a really bizarre spectacle because, you know, apart from the Hormuz issue, which, again, does need to get settled, set that aside, all of the military objectives of eroding this regime and doing what he wants to do, it's working. And in the meantime, the Chinese look like they're horrible allies to the Gulf for not coming to their rescue and not helping. I mean, this guy looks like he's playing everybody right now. Now, again, things can easily go wrong, but I just don't see the doom and gloom that we keep reading about.

[John Podhoretz]

I'm struck by some of the coverage in this sense. So imagine that you are back in the 12th, the mythical past of Monty Python and the Holy Grail. And of course, the indelible scene in Monty Python and Holy Grail where Arthur faces the down, or Lancelot, I can't remember who faces down the Black Knight, who is, you know, like, challenging him. Very threatening, very terrifying. And then art systematically first cuts off one arm, then the other arm, then he cuts off his legs. And the Dark Knight is like, have at you. I will take you down. And then he's like a torso on the ground and saying, I'll bite you. You know, I'll do. And instead of it being a hilarious scene, you have Media commentators looking at the Dark Knight losing his arm, losing his leg, losing his other arm, losing his other leg and becoming a torso on the ground. And they're going, you know, the Dark Knight is really holding his own. Not only that, but the Dark Knight has. Playing a long game. The Dark Knight is really gonna. When he sinks his teeth into Arthur's arm, then you're gonna know they are really in the catbirds. It is very weird to read some of this commentary suggesting that the Iranians, who are clearly dazed, confused, without the ability to talk to each other, impotently firing missiles at Israel that do almost no damage, and spraying fire around and threatening the Straits of Hormuz more verbally than since in the last five days, they've done nothing really to impact shipping and Hormuz except the threat. And it is as though people are saying they're doing, you know, boy, gotta hand it to them, it's great.

[Seth Mandel]

Meanwhile, there's a headline at Al Jazeera yesterday saying the strategy against Iran is working. Here's why.

[John Podhoretz]

Yeah, I mean, you have to presume that the strategy isn't working in order to make an argument that the strategy isn't working. You have your prior has to be, this can't work. Right now. There is a logic to say this can't work because you can't destroy a regime from the air. And it's never worked. So I'm pessimistic about that. Or Iran's ideological roots are so deep and the regime's roots are sunk so deep that they cannot pull it out from its roots. And all this idea that the Iranian people are ready to rise up flies in the face of just how strong Shiite ideology and the millenarian feelings are there and all of that. But you have to bring that into the conversation without reference to the actual effect of 17 days of 5000 strikes a day.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a commentator or analyst)]

Well, that's the trick. That's the trick of the criticism of the war is that if I believe that you can't destroy a regime from the air, this has already failed. And therefore, you. You. You don't have to measure it. It's like, you know, it's like a baseball game. Like, you know, you don't have to measure it by the runs scored by each team, just measure it about, you know, whether they have, you know, a chance to, I don't know, win the World Series or something like that. It's like you don't have to actually defend based on what's happening in the war. You can even acknowledge if you want that the strikes are effective for what they're doing. But the trick is that you can just say, well, this has no, there's no end point at which this could possibly succeed. And therefore, no matter how well it's going on the ground or in the air, you know, you don't have to, you know, you don't have to concede that a war is going well means the war is actually going well in traditional terms. And by the way, I also think that the, I saw that Al Jazeera headline and I'm also kind of curious if what, what that means about where the Qataris are like that. That headline is unusual to put it mildly. And you know, we know that Qatar has been kind of put in the middle of this. They don't, they don't really want to, you know, they're not the uae, they're not out front against Iran and they're not used to, you know, sort of taking the brunt. And also the Qataris probably wonder if Iran goes, you know, what happens to them. I think, Jonathan, I think you've said, you know, if there's no, there's no, like Hamas in Gaza, for example, there's no need for us to, you know, have, you know, the Qataris treated like an ally, you know, and have a base there. All this others. Is that headline, Am I reading too much into it?

[Jonathan Schanzer]

Let me just say, I mean, the Qataris are in this moment.

[John Podhoretz]

We need to explain. We need to explain. Al Jazeera is owned by the government of Qatar. So if it puts out a very controversial op ed essentially praising American and Israeli strategy, we figure that they must have run it up the flagpole to the censors in their government who said it's okay for it to be published.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I would actually go even a step further. I think they're getting direction right now from their overlords in Doha telling them, okay, we're taking a different editorial approach now and we're going to get behind this thing.

[Abe Greenwald]

But, you know, I mean, what, what's amazing to me as I watch this is apparently the Hamas leadership has refused to come out and to condemn the Islamic Republic for firing on all these Gulf states. And so the Qataris, after years of hosting Hamas and giving them a headquarters and giving them $30 million a month, that I think funded the war. I mean, you know, and these, just to be clear, these guys were the patrons along with the Islamic Republic of Hamas, which is the terrorist group that started this thing. Right? And so now they're getting hammered by Iran, their partner in the cultivation of Hamas, which started this war, they're getting bombed and they are on the verge of kicking Hamas out of the country. The wheels are falling off the Qatari bus right now. The whole strategy of kind of playing everybody against one another, arsonist and firefighter,

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I gotta tell you right now, I mean, I think they're just sorry that they were playing with fire in the first place. And that, to me, is poetry. I love seeing this right now that the Qataris are finally beginning to realize. You know, I saw this tweet right before we got on the. The Qatari Amir met with the King of Jordan, and the two of them were lamenting how they got dragged into this and that they were bystanders and that they, you know, that they're like, oh, God, look at how unfair the world is, how tough. And I'm thinking, you know what, Qataris, you've been at the center of this, you've inserted yourself into this and you're just getting the beating that you deserved. So, I mean, I think there is some really interesting stuff that can happen. This is all going to depend on Trump and it always does. Right? But this is the moment where we can start to say, you want to be an ally of ours. Okay, fine. Here are the new rules, right? No more of sponsoring Taliban and Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood and no more sheltering Al Qaeda and isis. You're going to be an energy person, producer. You're going to be the place where we have our base and nothing else. That would be the. I mean, that would be poetry as far as I'm concerned.

[Seth Mandel]

Jonathan, I know you got to run soon, but I have a quick question. I'm really curious about that. You just made me think of. So during the entirety of Israel's war post October 7, there was, on social media primarily, I mean, overwhelmingly on TikTok, huge foreign influence operation to get these tiktoks up to influence all the kids essentially, or whomever else watching. Has that dried up now? I mean, the Qatari funded, Iranian funded, are there less of those? Those, those. The propaganda. Tick tock. Because A, resources have to go to actual fighting and defense, or B, because as you say, they're like, we're just sorry we got involved in this to begin with.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

I think actually it's an interesting question and I don't know how to answer it yet. I think these things take a little while, you know, where you start to be able to see these narratives that emerge on, on social media. What I find interesting is what, you know, this is, at the end of the day, of course, a Chinese app, right? It's a Chinese algorithm. And everything that we've learned over the last couple of years is that the Chinese government has been actually promoting an algorithm that elevates and amplifies this kind of anti Israel, anti American sentiment, anti Semitic, by the way, too. You'll see that they have actually, you know, amplified that as well. So the question is, are there fewer people saying this and the Chinese just continue to amplify it, or do we start to see a leveling off of all of it? That is something I'd love to find out. At fdd, we've got a cyber team that looks at this sort of stuff at Information Operations. So, yeah, I mean, stay tuned. I'd love to be able to get back to you with a clear answer.

[John Podhoretz]

Okay, Jonathan Schanzer, your FDD morning brief runs. Is it Monday, Wednesday, Friday? Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Fantastic resource. Kind of like this is an off day for that. So Jonathan's giving us what he might be giving you tomorrow morning, for example, on the FTD morning brief about what happens between now and then. So you should listen, go to commentary.org and read Jonathan's article regime Change Without Nation Building as part of our package, our April issue package.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

And one thing I just want to know, Tomorrow, actually should be a really fun morning brief for one reason. I'm getting Scooter Libby to come on to talk about how you handle wars when you're getting inundated with American voices that are cheering for your demise, and to sort of talk about this weird dissonance of, you know, cheering against the American military that is fighting for the country. And just that conversation I'm excited for because I just haven't heard anybody talk about it when they've lived it. And he has.

[John Podhoretz]

All right, so there we have it. Thanks for coming on. And for Seth and Abe, I'm John Podhortz. Keep the candle burning.

[Jonathan Schanzer]

To realize the future America needs. We understand what's needed from us to face each threat head on. We've earned our place in the fight for our nation's future. We are Marines. We were made for this.