The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "Iran-Amok"

Date: February 3, 2026
Host: Jon Podhoretz
Guests: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel, Christine Rosen, Eli Lake (Contributing Editor, Commentary / The Free Press)
Main Theme:
A deep dive into Iran’s current political upheaval, the role of exiled royal Reza Pahlavi, US strategic ambiguity under President Trump regarding Iran, and domestic ramifications for American policy and politics.

Episode Overview

This episode explores the dramatic escalation around Iran following mass protests and brutal crackdowns, the possibility of regime change, and the US and international community’s readiness—or lack thereof—for what comes next. Special attention is given to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince, as a potential transitional figure, and the implications of erratic American leadership. The show closes with a discussion on Trump’s comments about federalizing state elections and the potential political fallout in the US.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Reza Pahlavi: Hope for Transitional Leadership?

(Main segment: 01:41–11:32)

• Exile and Legitimacy

  • Jon Podhoretz draws a comparison between Reza Pahlavi and Spain’s King Juan Carlos, noting that Juan Carlos’s legitimacy was derived from living and serving in Spain, unlike Pahlavi, who has been away from Iran for 47 years.

    “...the thing about Reza Pahlavi ... is that he literally has not been inside the borders of Iran for 47 years.” (03:51)

  • The hosts question whether an outsider—albeit with royal blood—could be a credible transitional leader.

• Popularity and Nostalgia

  • Eli Lake notes recent polling showing Pahlavi with 31% support, greater than any current Iranian regime figure. The disillusionment with the Islamic Republic is driving nostalgia for pre-revolutionary times—even more so among younger Iranians who never experienced the monarchy but imagine it positively.

    “...there has been some polling... from 2024 ... says that he has about 31% support, which is more than any other person...” (04:55)

  • Eli details how Pahlavi’s public image has swung between Western-style liberal reformer and “king in waiting” promoted by hardcore monarchists, mirroring right-wing online swarming tactics.

    “They have adopted the tactics of like the hardcore MAGA Trump types where they will attack anyone for even slightly kind of questioning...” (08:13)

• Exile Dissatisfaction

  • Eli suggests Pahlavi doesn’t seem particularly eager to return or embrace the hardships and risks of leading Iran’s revolution:

    “...even a few years ago, [he] said, you know, I've lived here for 40 years, all my friends are here, my family's here. Why I don't know what I would go back to. And that to me is really telling...” (10:28)

  • Other opposition figures and Kurdish and labor groups might be sidelined by a push for simple royal restoration.

2. US Policy: Trump’s Strategic Confusion and Missile Defense

(Main segment: 11:32–21:37)

• Trump’s Shifting Signals

  • Jon outlines Trump’s erratic statements on Iran throughout January, oscillating between threats of military action, promises of support to protesters, and sudden calls for negotiation, all while Iran continued mass killing of protesters.

    “...he goes too far. He pulls himself back. They’re having fights inside the administration...” (16:34)

  • Jim Garrity’s column is referenced to highlight this inconsistency.

    “We have an erratic president who veers back and forth between promises of help and threats of force and then talks up how much he wants to work out a deal...” (15:38)

• The Missile Defense Bottleneck

  • Eli identifies a critical issue: the US has inadequate missile defense supplies due to long-standing failures to stock interceptors, revealed during both the Ukraine war and Israel’s 12-day war.

    “...our capability of producing our supply chains for producing the interceptors is inadequate to the need that we have in this moment.” (17:17)

  • The current diplomatic “stalling” is seen as buying time for military repositioning and resupply.

    “I think that the talk of the negotiations is all kind of subterfuge on that, or at least that's what I've been told.” (18:23)

• Leadership Weaknesses

  • Trump is said to often bypass the National Security Council, acting impulsively and staking claims before understanding operational readiness.

    “That didn’t go through the National Security Council process. That went through the Mar a Lago process.” (18:51)

  • The “deal team” of non-traditional, inexperienced Trump allies is critiqued as emblematic of this administration’s improvisation.

3. After the Regime Falls: US and Iranian Planning

(Main segment: 24:26–38:17)

• Lack of US Planning

  • Christine Rosen asks about post-regime plans: “Is there anyone in the administration... who is thinking about a post Ayatollah Iran?” (25:24)
  • Eli answers: “I don’t think there’s any serious planning on the, what comes next.” (25:51)
  • The panel reflects on Iraq 2003 as a warning—absence of planning breeds chaos and empowers foes.

• Who Fills the Vacuum?

  • All agree the US is culturally “allergic” to being seen as an imperial power, so formal post-war planning is always lacking.

    “We are ideologically and temperamentally as Americans, allergic to doing the precise thing that you’re saying needs to happen.” (28:00)

• Iran’s Dissidents and Referendum Agenda

  • Eli points out that Iranian civil society leaders have long called for a referendum to eliminate the unelected Guardian Council’s power.

    “What they want is a referendum on the current constitution so that people can vote to eliminate the powers of the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader...” (34:54)

  • Panel considers whether regime change, even without immediate perfect outcomes, is better than enduring the mullahs’ rule.

    “At this point, I would say anything would be better than these lunatics, not just from a human rights perspective, but from our national security perspective.” (35:54)

4. Regional Dynamics and Turkey’s Role

(Main segment: 39:06–44:27)

• Turkey’s Ambition and Risks
  • The hosts express concern about the Trump administration’s flirtation with Turkey—and Erdogan—as a potential intermediary in regional peace efforts.

    “That Erdogan, who is... maybe not a total enemy of the United States, but is somebody who’s aims, ideas, and desires are completely at odds with ours...” (39:26)

  • There is anxiety Turkey could fill the regional power vacuum post-Iran, much like Russia did in Syria after the Obama administration’s red line debacle.

5. The Monkey’s Paw Presidency and Domestic Political Fallout

(Main segment: 45:17–60:28)

• Trump Proposes Federalizing Elections

  • Trump’s appearance on Dan Bongino’s show, where he proposes Republicans take over 15 states’ elections, alarms the hosts as unconstitutional and inflammatory.

    “...he went on ... Don Bongino's new Stream podcast and said that he wants the federal government to take over elections. ... The Republicans should nationalize elections in, in 15 states.” (47:53)

  • The hosts link this to Trump’s continued obsession with re-litigating the 2020 election and warn of further civic instability.

    “He’s setting the stage for the next huge civic clash... another huge crisis on our hands.” (49:37)

• Impact on the GOP and Midterms

  • Trump’s stirring of controversy in swing states is predicted to create backlash and potentially spark a Democratic wave in the midterms.

    “He is making it clear that every person who does not like him needs to drag themselves over broken glass to get to the polls to vote for anybody who is anti Trump.” (54:33)

  • David French’s scenario of possible mass unrest or even attempted election cancellation is discussed, reluctantly conceded as plausible after Trump’s latest rhetoric.

• Monkey’s Paw Analogy

  • Seth Mandel sums up:

    “Trump is the Monkey’s paw president. You get what you wished for, but you also get some kind of deeply unnerving chaos as a side effect...” (59:43)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the nostalgia for pre-revolutionary Iran:

  “So there’s a part of it where there’s a kind of... I want Iran to go back to, like, you know, lavish caviar and champagne parties and women topless on the beach and things like that. And that, I think, is a reflection of just how awful things are in Iran.”
  Eli Lake, 05:46

• On strategic ambiguity:

  “We have an erratic president who veers back and forth between promises of help and threats of force and then talks up how much he wants to work out a deal.”
  Jon Podhoretz quoting Jim Garrity, 15:38

• On U.S. lack of planning:

  “Rather than being the world’s hyper power with plans to control all these governments... we are ideologically and temperamentally as Americans, allergic to doing the precise thing that you’re saying needs to happen.”
  Jon Podhoretz, 28:00

• Monkey’s Paw analogy:

  “Trump is the Monkey's paw president. You get what you wished for, but you also get some kind of deeply unnerving chaos as a side effect...”
  Seth Mandel, 59:43

Important Timestamps

• 01:41 – Introduction to Reza Pahlavi and royal restoration in post-revolution Iran
• 04:52 – Polling and nostalgia for the monarchy inside Iran
• 07:13 – Iranian history: from kings to theocracy, and the hybrid nature of the regime
• 08:13 – Pahlavi’s supporters adopt tactics like online “MAGA” swarms; contrast within the opposition
• 11:32 – Comparing Iran's opposition with former Soviet-bloc dissidents; Trump administration’s ambiguous strategy
• 15:38 – Trump’s inconsistent messaging per Jim Garrity
• 17:05 – US missile defense stockpile concerns
• 24:26 – Diaspora dynamics and Pahlavi’s role; lack of US planning for post-regime Iran
• 28:00 – Allergy to postwar planning; warning from Iraq
• 34:54 – Civil society-led opposition in Iran and calls for constitutional referendum
• 39:06 – Turkey’s problematic regional ambitions and Trump's unorthodox deal-makers
• 47:53 – Trump’s call for Republicans to "take over elections" in 15 states
• 54:33 – Effects of Trump’s rhetoric on midterms and potential Democratic surge
• 59:43 – The “Monkey’s paw” presidency analogy
• 60:40 – Close; plug for Eli Lake's Free Press article, "Reza Pahlavi, Iran's Reluctant Prince"

Conclusions

The hosts express deep skepticism about both the prospects for a swift, graceful political transition in Iran and the quality of US strategic leadership at a moment of high tension. They believe the opposition’s readiness is doubtful, and Trump’s reactive, ill-prepared governance increases both regional and domestic risks. Ultimately, the episode reveals perils on all sides: from the hazards of nostalgia and personality-driven exile politics, to the dangers of improvisational foreign policy, and the self-inflicted wounds Trump’s rhetoric may cause his own party.

For a deeper dive into Reza Pahlavi’s complexities, listeners are directed to Eli Lake’s Free Press piece, “Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s Reluctant Prince.”