Podcast Summary: The Commentary Magazine Podcast Episode: Is Immigration Policy Hurting Trump Now? Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines recent polling indicating that Donald Trump, and by extension the Republican Party, is experiencing declining approval, particularly on immigration—the issue most central to Trump's identity and presidency. The conversation broadens into the effectiveness and consequences of Trump’s policies on the economy, the optics of federal enforcement actions in cities like Minneapolis, and the political challenges facing both parties as they try to address the nation’s anxieties amid cultural and demographic shifts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Norman Podhoretz Tribute (01:22 – 04:40)

• John Podhoretz begins by announcing a major tribute issue of Commentary Magazine in honor of his late father, Norman Podhoretz.
• Contributors include Seth Mandel, Andy Ferguson, Bret Stephens, Meir Soloveitchik, Roger Hertog, John Podhoretz himself, and Norman’s granddaughter, Nani.
  • Quote: "I think we've done him proud." — John Podhoretz (04:15)

2. Troubling Polls for Trump and Republicans (05:03 – 08:18)

• Multiple polls show Trump’s approval in the 39–40% range, with even lower numbers on key issues: economy, immigration, foreign policy.
• Independent voters’ views are particularly negative, which threatens GOP hopes in both House and Senate races.
• Example: Even “out-of-step” Democratic candidates in Texas are polling remarkably well.
  • Quote: "With Democrats, they're horrible... he can forget about ever getting crossover votes from Democrats. But the independent number... are, of course, extremely bad for him and very worrying for Republicans." — John Podhoretz (07:11)

3. Immigration: Once a Strength, Now a Drag (08:18 – 10:45)

• Trump's numbers on immigration are now worse than his already weak overall approval—an unexpected reversal for an issue long considered his strongest.
• The “ICE raids” have contributed to public discomfort; the repeated visibility of enforcement may be backfiring.
  • Quote: "There is something Donald Trump can... go too far on immigration. There's a line that he can cross." — Eliana Johnson (08:40)

4. Trump’s Style: Policy as 'Taunt' (10:00 – 10:45)

• Trump is described as turning every policy fight into a dare—constantly challenging people to continue supporting him and his often-provocative tactics.
  • Quote: "He turns everything into a taunt. He dares you to keep approving of what he's up to." — Eric Erickson (10:00)

5. Economic Policy Critiques (10:58 – 16:06)

• Trump’s economic policies—tariffs, populist proposals like capping credit card interest, and banning institutional home purchases—are moving left, alienating conservatives and failing to address voters’ rising cost-of-living concerns.
• His central tool, tariffs, are identified as "taxes on consumers" that raise day-to-day costs.
  • Quote: "His major economic policy is to raise the cost of everyday goods." — John Podhoretz (15:17)
• Trump’s conflicts with the Federal Reserve (especially chair Jay Powell) aren’t resonating, as many voters see little positive impact from interest rate adjustments.

6. Polling Realities & Fatigue (20:24 – 27:39)

• While polling questions can be slanted, large gaps (15–20 points) are hard to dismiss as mere artifacts.
• There is genuine, widespread “Trump fatigue” among independents and even some Republicans.
  • Quote: "Independents have real Trump fatigue... numbers this bad across three polls suggests people are tuning him out." — John Podhoretz (27:39)

7. The Role of Optics: ICE Raids in Minneapolis (32:04 – 44:27)

• Media coverage and visual imagery are dictating the public narrative around ICE activity in cities like Minneapolis, often overshadowing the administration's legal or policy arguments.
• Debate on how (or if) Trump should address the situation publicly: Should he make a clear, focused case or is he unable to deliver such a message effectively?
  • Quote: "Images, not arguments, have swayed public opinion on the biggest issues now for so long." — Eric Erickson (41:29)
• Concerns that Trump's rhetorical style and lack of message discipline undercut any effective defense.

8. Policy Execution vs. Public Expectations (50:32 – 52:35)

• Current immigration enforcement seems unfocused, creating fear rather than addressing public concerns about dangerous criminals and border flows.
• Discussion centers on the gap between what enforcement hardliners seek and what the public will support.

9. The Democrats' Challenges: David Plouffe’s "Seven Things" (53:00 – 62:32)

• Review of Plouffe's advice to Democrats—focus on concretely lowering costs for voters, which mostly means more government benefits.
• Skepticism about the sustainability of the “give away more” platform given tax and deficit realities.
• Democrats' social liberalism (failure to clarify issues like gender, or take a clear stance on Israel/Gaza) is seen as a drag on their future viability.
  • Quote: "Trump’s most powerful ad in the 2024 election was, I'm for you. She's for they, them." — Ben Shapiro (59:27)
  • Quote: "As long as Democrats alienate normal people with their inability to answer questions in a basic common sense way, they are going to have electoral difficulty." — Ben Shapiro (61:03)

10. Culture Wars and Political Branding (65:10 – 74:31)

• There’s a deep and ongoing divide in the culture: progressive signaling (gender, Israel criticism) dominates Democratic primaries and activist circles.
• The episode ends with a discussion about TV’s depiction of these issues, referencing Taylor Sheridan’s "Landman" series and the backlash it faced from the progressive media.
  • Quote: "The idea that Landman... dares to have a scene mocking...a humorless they/them on a college campus is worthy of 15 minutes of denunciation." — John Podhoretz (70:36)
• Observers note that even centrist Democrats can’t deviate from leftwing orthodoxy without risking their careers, as seen in US House races and media responses.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ICE Raids, Public Reaction, and Political Danger:

  • "Unprecedented images are often very unnerving to people... It's pretty easy for people to go, 'Yeah, but this is not what I meant.'" — John Podhoretz (37:36)
  • "It is almost impossible to come up against these visual arguments." — Eric Erickson (41:29)

• On Trump's Immigration Dilemma:

  • "The way for him to win on immigration... is to say, nobody is coming into the United States anymore. We have closed... the border to illegal immigration... Instead, he has turned the argument in this direction that, I think the polling and various shows, is not what people are upset about immigration over." — John Podhoretz (50:32)

• On Cultural Signaling and Party Identity:

  • "We're Democrats. We give people things. He says, we're Democrats, we should give people things. But he doesn't say, one of the ways we need to correct ourselves is by stopping the lunacy because he's too scared of getting excommunicated for his apostasy on these very important cultural radical issues." — John Podhoretz (67:52)

• On Democrats and Liberal Identity:

  • "What does 'liberal' mean now? ...I'm wondering if what liberal means is what Eliana is talking about here. When Democrats say they're liberal, are they talking about economic liberalism or social radicalism?" — John Podhoretz (64:25)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 01:22–04:40 – Tribute to Norman Podhoretz
• 05:03–08:18 – Overview of negative polling for Trump/GOP
• 08:18–10:45 – Immigration numbers and policy brand erosion
• 10:58–16:06 – Economic policy missteps and public perceptions
• 20:24–27:39 – Discussion on polling validity, Trump fatigue
• 32:04–44:27 – ICE raids in Minneapolis, the power of imagery & narrative
• 50:32–52:35 – Gaps between enforcement policies and public preferences
• 53:00–62:32 – David Plouffe’s Democratic strategy, taxes, and long-term problems
• 65:10–74:31 – Culture wars; primaries and the perils of Democratic orthodoxy

Summary Tone and Final Reflection

The podcast exemplifies Commentary Magazine’s blend of sharp, wry, and sometimes acerbic political analysis. The hosts stress the increasing disconnect between politicians’ narratives (especially on immigration and cultural issues) and the lived experience or instincts of average Americans. Trump, they argue, is stuck between old rhetoric and new realities, while Democrats risk alienating voters through both fiscal profligacy and cultural radicalism. The episode closes with a sense of cultural and partisan gridlock, and a skepticism about either side's ability to break the impasse in the near term.