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Jonathan Schanzer
Hope for the best, expect the worst.
Abe Greenwald
Some preach and pain Some die of.
Jon Podhoretz
Thirst the way of knowing which way.
Jonathan Schanzer
It'S going Hope for the best, Expect.
Jon Podhoretz
The worst, hope for the best. Welcome to the Commentary Magazine daily podcast. Today is Thursday, July 10, 2025. I am Jon Podhoritz, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me, as always, executive editor Abe Greenwald. Hi, Abe.
Christine Rosen
Hi, John.
Jon Podhoretz
Social commentary columnist Christine Rosen. Hi, Christine.
Unnamed Speaker
Hi, John.
Jon Podhoretz
And joining us today, our contributing editor, Pooh Bah, podcaster sage at the foundation for Defensive Democracies, Jonathan Schanzer. Hi, Schanzer. How are you today?
Jonathan Schanzer
Hey, Padharetz, Living the dream.
Jon Podhoretz
You are always living the dream. And in fact, you we might be living some kind of a dream that's not a nightmare. This week with this love fest between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Trump administration. He's been and, and, and the leadership in Congress. He's been traveling around Washington, back and forth into the White House for dinners and to Capitol Hill to have a, you know, practically make out session with with House Speaker Mike Johnson, to the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom Washington is with Benjamin Netanyahu. Even as I listened to Ross Doutha talking to Bret Stephens this morning on Ross's excellent podcast Interesting Times, making the point that Israel may have mortally damaged itself with American public opinion since October 7th. Look at the changes in the Democratic Party. Look at the changes in young Republican voters and how they are responding to Gallup and Pew about their views of Israel versus the Palestinians. And though our YouTubers can see this, our listeners on the podcast can't. So what I'm seeing is a Tucker Carlson like disbelieving squint on the face of Jonathan Chanzer at the idea that there is any reason to question whether Israel has somehow harmed itself with its behavior in the past six weeks. So I take it, Jonathan, that it is your view that something world historic has been going on really since the spring.
Jonathan Schanzer
I will say the following, that I think these proclamations of Israel destroying itself are premature.
Jon Podhoretz
That's good.
Jonathan Schanzer
I also think that these proclamations of Israel having transformed the Middle east entirely are also a bit premature. There's something of a race between these two timelines that's happening right now. And I think it's really important to watch. On the one hand, you have Israel's haters that are waiting for Israel to hang itself, right? They're waiting for Israel to go back into Gaza with full force and do something horrible and then trigger some sort of boycott movement and turn Israel into South Africa of the early 90s and completely hang it out to dry. And that's sort of the one. Kind of the one trend that we're. I don't know. I don't want to say I'm watching for it, but certainly the haters of Israel are trying to push for this. And then you have something that is just absolutely fascinating going on between Trump and Bibi. And it's not just the love fest. They're clearly enamored with one another, but really what they're trying to do, as I see it, is they're trying to transform the Middle East. Nothing less than that. Right. It's not just that they've defeated Iran and they've put it in a corner and they're trying to keep it there. And that the defeat of Iran could have massive ramifications for the entire Middle east, given how the Islamic Republic has cast a dark shadow across the entire region. They've destabilized countries, they've hollowed the out, they've created proxies that have threatened every American ally across the region, of course, with the primary focus on Israel. But then there's the possibility, the very real possibility of normalization with Syria. The former Al Qaeda leader Abu Mohamed Al Jelani, now known as Ahmed Al Shara, is indicating right now that as long as Israel promises not to put boots on the ground in Syria in the future, even with a buffer zone that Israel maintains that he's willing to make peace with Israel, and that would be another country in Israel's border that would be normalized with the Jewish state. You've got this, I think, similar prospects in Lebanon as the Lebanese armed forces and Israel continue to erode Hezbollah's stranglehold on power. You get a sense that normalization with Lebanon could be not too far behind. And that's crazy to say out loud, but I gotta say, you know, everybody's exhausted. Nobody wants war anymore. And normalization is the alternative to that. So you have this possibility of literally every country on Israel's borders possibly willing to normalize with the Jewish state while Iran is sidelined. And this gives a sense that the Middle east could transform entirely. And the fact that this is possible while Israel's haters are still trying to put it into the apartheid, South Africa category is just so interesting. The dichotomy is fascinating to me, but it certainly looks like Bibi and Trump, despite their haters at home, have a vision for the Middle east, and they are fighting for it right now, and they are forging ahead. And that's what I'M watching right now.
Jon Podhoretz
Let me, let me mention that my father, Norman Pod Horowitz, said many, many years ago that if you follow the trajectory of the wars, the actual physical wars that Israel has waged since the beginning of its existence, what you see is that when Israel wins a war, it knocks out enemies. So the 48 war for independence, which was fought theoretically by 21 or 22 countries at the conclusion of the war, the armistice in 1949, the countries that participated, that were nowhere near Israel's border basically said, we're done. We don't like Israel, we're not for it, we're against it. But, you know, don't look to us to play any kind of active role in any military operation against Israel. In 67, with the Six Day War, Israel knocked out Jordan as a military participant in the effort to end the Jewish state by defeating Jordan, taking the west bank and reuniting Jerusalem in 73 at the end of the Yom Kippur War. Two years later, Sadat flies to Jerusalem, effectively ending Egypt's participation as an active combatant against Israel. And in 1982, at the end of the Lebanon War, Lebanon, though not the Palestinians who were war with Israel. Lebanon was never really. But I mean, effectively you could say that Syria leaves the battlefield, Israel takes the Golan Heights, annexes the Golan Heights a couple of years earlier, Israel goes to war with Lebanon, takes out the plo, and Syria basically says we're no longer going to, don't expect us. If anybody wants to go to war with Israel, don't expect us to come in. So that when the first and second Intifada happen inside Israel's own controlled territory, there is no outside participation, there's no effort to open a second front on Israel's borders. And this war has now not only, not, not Syria's not only knocked out, let's say, but may end up in the Abraham Accords and we may see a couple of other things happening. So this is not, this is actually a consistent thing that's happened that is consistent with the way what happens when Israel wins wars. It defeats, it eliminates in the long term enemies who basically make their peace with Israel's existence.
Jonathan Schanzer
It destroys the will of Israel's enemies. And that's just what happens when you consistently win wars or at least don't lose them. Now, of course, Israel's not won every war they've fought, some to a tie, but they are stubborn as hell. They're not going anywhere. And I think the longer that is proven to the Arab world and to the Muslim world, the better the prospects are for regional integration. And really I kind of laid out what was happening around Israel's immediate borders. But then there's one other thing that we've just got to point out here. The Saudis were reportedly at the White House over July 4th weekend. And you may have seen there was this fascinating anecdote that Idan Alexander, the American Israeli former hostage held by Hamas was in the White House and had a chance encounter with MBS and Princess Rima, the ambassador to Washington.
Jon Podhoretz
MBS is Mohammed bin Salman, the ruler of Saudi Arabia, the de facto ruler.
Jonathan Schanzer
Yeah, I mean, his father, father is still king, but this guy, the one that, that, that's still actually breathing without life support. And, and, and they actually, they bump into Idan Alexander who now speaks Arabic because he was taught Arabic by his captors in the tunnels of Gaza. And he engages with these Saudi leaders, speaking Arabic to them, relaying to them his experiences in the tunnels. And you know, look, first of all, just that meeting is astounding in and of itself.
Jon Podhoretz
Wow, I did not know this.
Jonathan Schanzer
Yeah, but then there's this. And of course this is not widely reported, but it's what we're hearing. But then there's this. You know, I think you have the meeting with the Crown Prince, MBS meets with the Iranian Foreign Minister Arabchi in Jeddah. I think it was two days ago. You get a sense right now that the Saudis are beginning to rethink their position on normalization. As everybody knows, Trump had them on like the one yard line right before he lost the election. Of course he says he didn't lose the election, but when he lost the election to Joe Biden, he lost the opportunity for normalization. And then you had this backsliding of Saudi's position in the entire region under, under the four years of the Biden administration. I think we're back. I don't want to say on the one yard line, but we're in the red zone for football fans out there. Right. We're within the 20 yard line right now and the Saudis are thinking about it all over again. And if the Saudis go into the normalization sort of construct, if they join the Abraham Accords or they create some other accords with this, they're going to want their own because they're the Saudis and they have a lot of money and they get to decide what they call it. And it won't be the Abraham Accords, but we are close, I think, to a complete transformation now. I don't want to say that Donald Trump and Bibi have done it. I think a lot still needs to happen in order for this all to fall into place. But you get a sense that if the Saudis go in this direction, then Indonesia could be next. That's the largest Muslim population in the world. Malaysia could be next. North African countries will not buck this trend. This, I mean, I'm just saying that right now the chances for a major transformation are as significant as I have seen in a very long time. Trump and BB have to figure out how to do this though, in a way that kind of, you know, I guess is in accord. It's in line with, with what the region wants. And you know, I'm a little worried about how fast this goes, to be honest, which is kind of a funny thing to say because you'd like maybe all of this to just get locked down and move on. But I do think that process will be important here to make sure that it's done in a way that's responsible and sustainable, as the kids say.
Christine Rosen
What do you think would have to happen regarding the end game in Gaza for MBS to say, okay, the Palestinian issue is resolved to our satisfaction? Which he is, which he has publicly said before is like not a sticking point, but something that has to a hurdle even on the one yard line.
Jonathan Schanzer
It is a sticking point and I think we can acknowledge that. And it's okay, right? I mean the Arab world doesn't want to see Gazans living in squalor and fear. Fine, okay.
Jon Podhoretz
They just want their own people to live in squalor and fear. But Palestinians, right, fair enough.
Jonathan Schanzer
Certainly in the Eastern province where the Shiite are. Right. But I think that we may be hearing some news. I mean if you watched that, the, the, I don't know if we call it a press conference. It's a press availability that dinner before dinner was served with the Israeli and American delegations sitting across from one another and talking about what was going on in the region. Trump and Bibi both hinted at the fact that there could be Arab states that actually go in and take responsibility for the Gaza Strip and help broker an end of conflict. Now for me, the big, I gotta tell you, the big question for me, and this is driving me a little crazy as this is all happening and we hear all this really positive news and hints about things that may be coming the next day. The Qataris show up at the White House for a three hour working session with Stephen Witkoff. And the Qataris have no interest in ending this conflict, let's just be very honest about this. The Qataris are the key sponsors to hamas. Up until 10, 7, they were providing $30 million a month to Hamas. The they want Hamas to remain in power in the Gaza Strip. They want Hamas to not only have administrative power, they want them to still control the weapons there. And so what I think likely happens if Qatar has its way is they broker an agreement where 10 live hostages get out and another 15 dead hostages are sent home. And then you have 60 days of ceasefire and then they do it again, and then they maybe do it again and they drag this thing out, allowing Hamas to stay in power. And that's exactly how you don't end this on positive terms and you don't get the Saudis in. And so I actually think that right now it's almost a contest between the Saudis and the Qataris over how this thing ends. The UAE might also be involved with the Saudi side of things, maybe the Bahrainis, maybe the Moroccans, who knows? But we need the Gaza thing to end on positive terms. The hostages need to be sent home. This will allow the Israelis to maybe pull back and allow for change to take place. I'm not sure the sequencing of all of this, but you do get a sense now of the different competing visions that are on the table. The Israeli, the American, the Qatari, the Saudi. And it's going to be fascinating to see which one prevails.
Unnamed Speaker
There's, there's also the, the, the strange power and weakness of Trump's foreign policy approach, which is somewhat chaotic, is that it could go in any direction. And there were two moments in the last week that struck me as being indicative of how he is learning how to exercise some of that cultural power to fight, not, not to just deal with the region, but to deal with Israel's enemies in the West. And the first was the absolute rebuke by Secretary of State Rubio of Francesca Albanese, the Special Rapporteur, the UN Special Rapporteur, who has, and spewing vile anti Semitic statements completely out of line, you know, on October 7th, actually stated, well, the Israelis had it coming. Basically. She was, she's, she has been a long been an outspoken anti Semite with it, with an international organization behind her. So that again, could just be symbolic, but he's saying this is not tolerable to us anymore. The other thing was when, when Bibi reached across the table and handed the letter to Donald Trump that said, I have nominated you for the Nobel Peace Prize, that struck me as so perfectly capturing How. How savvy Netanyahu is about who he is dealing with, how they're dealing with each other, and the kind of mutual admiration, but with a very particular kind of obeisance to Trump's ego, which is necessary if you're going to negotiate with him and ask for his help and also ask for a powerful ally's help. So that those two moments, to me, struck me as unimaginable for any previous administration, including many previous Republican administrations. And it's that it is both unsettling to, as we've discussed many times, both about Israel and the Middle east, but also about Ukraine and Russia, to not know where we're headed with. With this foreign policy. But there is a. There's a kind of brilliance in those sorts of. Even if they're symbolic gestures, I found those both very compelling.
Jonathan Schanzer
No, absolutely. A couple of quick things to note. First of all, I think that, I mean, it was a brilliant move. I think it was Ron Dermer who probably wrote that letter and gave it to Bibi to hand across the table, because I think Dermer understands Trump probably, maybe better than Trump.
Jon Podhoretz
Are you referring to Ron Dermer? Are you referring to senior Israeli official on background?
Jonathan Schanzer
I think it's just Ron Dermer.
Jon Podhoretz
Okay.
Jonathan Schanzer
Okay, fine. Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
I don't know that there's much difference between the two, but there probably isn't.
Jonathan Schanzer
But I'm just gonna say Ron Dermer out loud because I do think that he. He's not just Bibi's brain, as they used to call him. I think he's Trump's brain, too. I don't know how this guy, you know, he continues to just absorb people's brains.
Jon Podhoretz
Remember, he is the son of the mayor of Miami Beach. Yes. Somebody was running Miami beach in the 1970s, and that was Ron Dermer's father.
Jonathan Schanzer
At the ripe old age of 4, he was doing all of that.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah, exactly.
Jonathan Schanzer
Right. But, you know, so I think. I think Dermer has his number. I think he gets Trump, and I think that's. That's remarkable. I will say, though, that Bibi, you know, forwarding this recommendation to the Nobel Committee is the kiss of death for Donald Trump to get the Nobel Prize. Let's just be, you know, really clear about that. And as for Albanese, I'll just give you a little bit of insight. I was talking to somebody inside the administration the other day. That designation was born. Less of the overt antisemitism. It was actually an overreach on the part of Albanese as she started trying to target American businesses for working with Israel. That was the red line for Trump, right? You start messing with the American economy and you happen to be anti Semitic working for the un which is working against American interests. It was like a perfect storm for her that she created. She brought this upon herself. And so we're now watching the comeuppance for Francesca Albanese and I think it's delicious. I'm watching it with total glee. It's schadenfreude and may she rot.
Unnamed Speaker
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Jon Podhoretz
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Jonathan Schanzer
Yeah. So, I mean, it's interesting if you watch again, that that press availability or whatever we're calling it, was fascinating to watch. They're now talking about, you know, first of all, moving the population, which the last time Donald Trump raised this, this Gaza lago plan, everybody's hair was on fire. They're all losing their minds that Donald Trump would even talk about this. He brings it up again and he says that there also could be countries that are willing to take them in. There could be mechanisms for allowing them to leave and actually choosing to leave and stay out of Gaza, not returning this whole notion that if you're Palestinian and you're from Gaza, you have to stay in Gaza, and that's it. It's beginning to evaporate. I sort of feel like Donald Trump has just been a little bit more stubborn than the other side, which is remarkable given how stubborn the other side is. They it appears right now that he's kind of worn down the opposition, at least as it relates to what happens to the Gaza population. Can they move? Should they move? Will they move? I think we're now past the debate of whether it's okay to talk about that. And we're now we've moved on to what's the plan. And I think that for me is the. Is the key. I have yet to see the plan. I want to see what countries are involved. I want to see what the mechanism is. But again, it seems like Trump, Bibi, maybe the Saudis, maybe the Emiratis, they've got something cooking now that Iran and I got to, you know, we got to stress this now that Iran is sidelined, now that Iran looks weak, that it looks hobbled, that it got its tuchas handed to it over 12 days, capped off with these mobs. That is, I think, the moment that opened the door for these kinds of conversations to take place. And so that part of the transformation is done. And this is sort of what I was trying to get at in the beginning of the program today. The next steps are crucial. Have they ironed this stuff out? And this is where it's going to be really important for Donald Trump to not shoot from the hip, not just to speak without having a plan in place. And that's where the Israelis and the Saudis and the Emiratis and others are going to be crucial here to kind of make sure that things are locked down before, you know, new plans are announced, new options for the Gazans are made available. That's what I'm watching for right now. And I have no idea what they have up their sleeves. I just know that if it's just rolled out ad hoc, people are going to trash it. If it's thought through and it's careful and it's planned out, then this stuff could possibly take place. And that's incredibly exciting given the history of this basket case region.
Jon Podhoretz
Let's add in Israeli domestic politics for a second because there's interesting stuff that's related to, to that as we see tectonic plates shifting all over the world here in the, you know, as, as we enter the second quarter of the 21st century, you know, Iran possibly taken off the map as a geo, as a, as a, as a major geopolitical player, for example, that kind of thing. So inside Israel, Bibi, the coalition that governs Israel, is Bibi's coalition, is incredibly torn over the details of where this goes next. So Bibi's plan, or the plan that we've heard about, the ceasefire plan, A, a lot of people in the coalition do not want a ceasefire. B, the Israeli people want a ceasefire. So he's got, you know, a coalition of 14 or 15 Knesset members who want to see the destruction of Hamas. You know, no ceasefire, no deal, no not get this done and over with. But the polling is overwhelming in Israel that the public has come close to having had enough. And Bibi is in the middle. So he wants Hamas gone. He wants a new governing system in place. There has to be some form of military. They don't want to use the word occupation, obviously, but some sort of military control of areas in Gaza to make sure that new fighting forces, new material, all of that cannot be brought back in through Egypt and various corridors established to facilitate Israeli movement to create the boundaries of this new Gazan settlement of people and to protect Israeli forces from guerrilla activity of the sort that we've seen over the last month that, you know, it's things that become much more dangerous for Israeli troops on the ground because Hamas now denied any capacity to do anything other than asymmetrical warfare, is indulging in asymmetrical warfare. They're throwing grenades at aid workers. They're blowing up, you know, they're trying to blow up tank convoys and things like that with, with some success. Jonathan, as a person who spends a lot of time thinking and talking to people about Israeli domestic politics. If you look at this in a granular fashion, there's like, oh, the Bibi's coalition could fall apart. The two, Smochrich and Ben GVIR could really, you know, have to pull out because they, you know, they're blah, blah, blah. And I don't believe that at all. But maybe I'm, you know, people who are much more literate than I am meet Segal. People like that say that there is more danger to the government than I. Then I think it seems to me that Bibi has, largely because of what happened in Iran, even though the Israeli political figures who don't like him have had to give credit to Iran. And therefore what we've done, what they've done is elevate Donald Trump. Trump, all the credit for everything. Wonderful. So they don't have to say that, you know, that the Israeli participation in the 12 day war, except for, you know, everybody who participated in the Air Force and the idf, is just fantastic. But the government isn't somehow going to get all that much credit. It just seems to me that he has an enormous amount of latitude that people don't realize that when push comes to shove, they're not. They're going to tank the government for what they're going to. They're going to do a vote of no confidence, these guys, for what they have. No. They have no alternative.
Jonathan Schanzer
They don't. They don't. And first of all, I mean, I think you put your finger on something that's really important for those that follow a guy like Barack Ravid, right. He's just vehemently, blindly anti Bibi, and he gives Trump the credit for everything. And it's like, it's bizarre to watch because Bibi and Trump are like, you know, again, it's like a bromance. And they're constantly working together. It's very clear Trump has given Bibi credit for a lot of the moves that were just made. And, you know, guys like Barack Ravid can't see it. And so, all right, I mean, let's set aside the people with, you know, like bds, as they call it, Bibi Derangement Syndrome. Put those people aside for a second. I think, first of all, if Bibi wants to call for new elections, he can, and he's riding the wave, and he will probably do just great. And I think that there is a large part of him, as I understand it from people that are close to him, he wants one more shot. He wants to be able to show that after October 7, after Israel was flat on its back that he was able to rally the country to win a war on seven fronts, although I will admit that Gaza and, and Yemen have not yet won. So you got two fronts that are still kind of unsolved, but five fronts completely solved. Two fronts that are still being worked on, but that this is a triumphant moment for him and that he wants to be able to demonstrate to the history books that he was electable one more time, despite the corruption charges and the trial and the anti Bibi stuff on the streets, that he can do this again and he may try to. And I think, I don't purport to even pretend to know how Israeli politics works. It's like ten dimensional chess, not just three, right. That it's so complicated. But I think Bibi can see that he's got this one way forward. I think that your point about the war in Gaza and sort of how this is weighing on him is it's really important. I think that the Israeli left, right, led primarily by the hostage families, they think that, and I've been saying this all along, they somehow think that if Israel just declares an end to fighting and say, hey, the war's over, that the hostages just come home and that's just not the case. There is no indication right now that if Israel says we're going to stop fighting, that all the hostages are removed and then even if they are sent home, you're still going to have the problem of Hamas remaining in the Gaza Strip and posing a threat and soon being able to have rocket capabilities to target the southern communities. And then it's rinse and repeat. And so it's far more complicated than the Israeli left lets on. I do think that there is a world in which Bibi calls for new elections. They happen. He's able to sideline Smotrich and Ben Gvir, he's able to figure out how to broker a deal to end the Gaza war, get these guys home, and then potentially bring in foreign powers to help rebuild the Gaza Strip in some way or another. And Hamas is sidelined in some way. But this stuff, it doesn't just happen, you know, because Bibi wants it or because Trump wants it. This is, again, this is going to have to be worked out step by step. The details are crucial here. And I think Bibi's working on it. I think he's trying to figure out how to shed the Ben GVIR and Smotrich baggage to get to a deal that Donald Trump wants to get to some kind of end of conflict. But this is complicated stuff here and it's going to require a lot of help and it may require the Israelis to endure another month or so of fighting in the Gaza Strip. And to be very clear, this looks more and more like Israel's Vietnam over the last couple of weeks, maybe couple of months. The asymmetric guerrilla warfare, the urban warfare is not redounding to Israel's benefit. I don't think Hamas is winning in the Gaza Strip. I think they are losing. I think that they have resorted to the last tactic that they have as they try to hold on to power and weapons. But I will say that the Gaza Humanitarian foundation, this new aid mechanism, is depriving them of administrative agency. And when you look at the fighting force of Hamas, it is a shell of its pretend seven self. They just don't have the leaders any longer. It's primarily, you know, young kids picking up AK47s with a handful of, let's say, mid level or even potentially senior level people who are planning IED attacks and the like. I don't see Hamas with long term prospects there. But getting to the end game is not going to be easy for Bibi. And so again, it's just multi dimensional chess here for Bibi as he tries to figure out how to end the war, get the hostages home, get his second term, defeat Hamas. This is not simple stuff.
Jon Podhoretz
Two points in relation to what you say. One is that people don't really understand how long a war this is for Israel. You know, we look from a distance and we say, well, you know, the Ukraine war is three years and World War II, we took, took us three and a half years to finish World War II and all that. So Israel has been fighting wars since its founding. This war is ten times longer than any war that Israel has ever has gone on for 10 times longer than any war Israel has ever fought with more combatants than Israel has ever had fighting in a war. And a lot of those combatants are reservists who are in their 20s and 30s, who have lives that they've had to upend in order to serve their country again. The Israeli populace is exhausted and depressed and every time they get news of some of a, of an IED attack or an attack on an Israeli convoy, there is this, why are we, why, why are we taking casualties now? We just beat Iran, you know, they're toast. Let's just get this over with. And you know, long wars have hard conclusions. Like including World War II, 2, the last year when America actually entered the European continent to fight that Was a bad year. Like after, after D Day, we didn't just sort of march through and, you know, walk right into Berlin and it was all over. Like, Americans, Americans fought the Battle of the Bulge. Took tens of thousands of casualties. You know, was a grueling year. And so, you know, when, when there is a remnant that isn't ready to feel itself defeated or isn't ready to, you know, wants to fight till the last man, you have this problem, which is that it seems unbelievably costly. And you still have to do it, you know, you still have to make it happen. So. And what did the, what did the Allies do? They firebombed German cities to, you know, to break the German will. And what did we do in the Pacific theater? We dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan to say enough. And Israel isn't going to, you know, Israel doesn't have those modalities anymore. First of all, I don't know what the targets would be. I think the target. The odd thing is the targets would be the tunnels. But of course, we don't know where the hostages are. They don't know where the hostages are. And so, you know, you could literally blow, literally do something where you blew up the entire tunnel system, but they don't want to do that and they can't do that. So they're in a pickle. And it's a difficult situation.
Christine Rosen
Can I just add, please, just in thinking about World War II and how it ends, Israel also has this problem. It's not entirely unique, but it's, but it's unusual, which is that they have enemies that don't surrender in the sort of classical, traditional sense, right? Like when you are religiously motivated, you don't say, okay, we've had enough, we're going to lay down our arms, you beat us, what's next? This is.
Jon Podhoretz
Sort of.
Christine Rosen
Life purpose for their enemies. And that also makes ending it much harder than anything that the west that the Allies faced in World War II.
Jonathan Schanzer
And by the way, Iran may not surrender, right? I mean, Trump is talking about this right now that he thinks that they're interested in a deal. I've said this in multiple places. I don't think you can be the Islamic Republic of Iran and surrender to the Great Satan. You gotta pick one, right? And you certainly can't recognize the victory of the little Satan, you know, the Israelis, after what they did, you can't do that. If you're Iran, I'm not sure you can still be Hamas and acknowledge an Israeli victory. You know, Hezbollah is still trying, losing, but they're trying to sort of get back on their feet again. And so, yeah, this is a challenge for the Israelis and I don't know how they end this. I will say though, that as it relates to the tunnels, John, I agree with you. The Israelis and they have been fighting with one hand tied behind their back. It's really amazing what they've been able to accomplish without doing everything that they can do, right? Bombing the tunnels where they know that Hamas leaders have been, where they have hostages surrounding these leaders. Even after they've identified them, they know where they are and they still choose not to attack them because the hostages are there. There does come a moment and it's brutal. And I've just got to say it, that you've got to wonder whether, you know, the lives of 20 people, horrible as this is, I mean, this is wars are about excruciating choices. Can you at the end of the day justify not winning because you're trying to preserve the lives of 20 people? And I think this is the toughest thing that the Israelis have to grapple with. They haven't been put to a choice yet, but they may yet be put to that choice. And that is just tough stuff.
Jon Podhoretz
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Abe Greenwald
Hi, everyone, I'm Matt Ebert, CEO and founder of Crash Champions. Welcome to Pod Crash. On Pod Crash, we'll dive deep with industry leaders and game changers because we want to uncover their secrets to success. We're going to explore everything from building trust, building a rock solid team, to champion blue collar work. And we also want to talk about creating explosive revolution growth in your business. You'll hear actionable advice, real leadership and business lessons along with what's worked for these incredible people throughout their career. We're even going to go in depth into what I call a champions mindset. This is the very philosophy that I use to champion people and take Crash Champions from a single shop to over 650 locations today. And now I want to share that information with you, Watch or listen to podcasts Crash on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast.
Unnamed Speaker
Well, and the longer the conflict goes on, I mean, anytime a soldier is at risk, they're also at risk of being kidnapped and added to the hostage count. I mean, this is happening all the time. Doesn't get discussed that much. But there was just a soldier killed in an ambush who they were trying to kidnap him at the time. And so that's another factor, is that you can add to the hostage count if you cannot find a resolution. Although I'm with you, John, I don't think you can really have a diplomatic negotiation with people who are jihadis. Jihad doesn't end wars. Simmer down. But the jihad continues. And I think that is, that is a sensibility that in the west, we don't always fully grasp. And I do think that's, again, another thing the Trump administration does understand to some extent about Iran.
Jonathan Schanzer
But perhaps, although I will say this, there's something I've been thinking about this, Christine, and it's really interesting. You have Abu Muhammad al Julani Ahmed Al Shara in Syria, who is a jihadi and who has decided to lay down his arms and to normalize with Israel, at least in theory. And he's talking about it. And there's a difference, I think, right? It's, first of all, it's the Shiite axis. So the Iranians, you know, this is their revolutionary ideology, and they simply cannot divorce themselves from it. But then there's also, I think there's this element of jihadism, plus Palestinian nationalism, and this cocktail is incredibly toxic. This is the Hamas ideology, and they will fight to the end. I think that that is the conception for them is they will martyr themselves to the last in opposition to Israel and So trying to figure out who you can work with and who you can't has been really interesting here for Israel through the entire course of this war.
Jon Podhoretz
You know, we speak slightingly of Smartrick and Ben gvir. We have here, people do. They are voicing almost, almost, not quite even. They cannot bring themselves to voice the counter view of the. Of this endgame, which is if 14 Israeli soldiers are going to be victim, victims of casualties in one attack at one moment, you know, three or four days ago, right. I think it was eight dead and seven injured or something like that. So that's 14 people. The hostages are 20. So if hundreds of Israeli soldiers die over the next three months because Israel has its hand tied behind its back, because the hostages are there, and that there is this national consensus that the most important thing is to get the hostages back at some point, even if it's sotto voce or it's sub rosa, because you can't say it, you are saying we are willing to accept these deaths for the hope that we can secure these lives. And the calculus starts getting more and more difficult over time. This is an agonizing thing to say, but the only people in Israeli politics who are saying, kind of saying it are Smotrich and Ben Gavir who are saying we need to win in Gaza and destroy Hamas. And that is what this is all for. Don't be talking ceasefire. Don't pull them. Don't let them pull back from their destruction. Don't give them the tools or the power to live to fight another day, even if they're incredibly wounded. Finish the job. And the implicit meaning of that is you have to de. Emphasize the survival of the hostages because others are now at risk because we're not doing what we can do to end the war. This is not part of the Israeli public conversation. It is amazing that it has never really become part of the Israeli conversation because there's all kinds of cultural reasons. There is the fact that it is a Jewish obligation to ransom captives. We're not even talking about ransoming the captives, by the way here, because we're literally ransoming the captives is buying somebody's freedom. That's what the, that's what the sages meant, that, you know, they didn't mean that Israel loses against the Amalekites in order to get their captives back. But. And this kind of national consensus, because Bibi is so controversial, everybody could kind of agree that, you know, we're in this fight to save the hostages. I don't know where this goes. I just think that the fact that the war has become more deadly for Israeli soldiers and Israeli soldiers are the same children of the Israelis that the people who were taken off the. And particularly reservists.
Unnamed Speaker
We should add the distinction that mandatory military service is part of Israeli culture as well. And I do think Americans forget that sometimes. But that also will alter how you perceive these sorts of conflicts.
Jon Podhoretz
Right. As I say, it just. It hasn't happened yet. That conversation has been impossible for Israelis to participate in, in part because the organization of, let's just say the anti government coalition, which is now, as Jonathan says, fronted a little bit by the Hostage Families Forum, was so brilliantly done in the months before October 7th. These weekly demonstrations, people have probably long since forgotten against the Israeli government's policies related to judicial reform. So hundreds of thousands of people were in the streets every Saturday night, big party, and they sort of kept it going. And then it kind of morphed into this sort of national mourning for the hostages and pleas for the hostages lives and all of that. And this implicit idea that if you said, what's really the way to save Israeli lives is to win this war as decisively as possible became an almost impossible conversation to have in the way that you might expect other countries or other civil societies to be able to discuss. I mean, even now, you know, there are 100Americans in jails all around the world who are being held captive for political reasons. And, you know, our entire country doesn't turn itself inside out saying, like this amazing piece in the Free Press about this guy who was in a Chinese jail for 12 years. I didn't even know he existed. We don't care about the, you know, we don't care about the people, Americans who are in captivity.
Jonathan Schanzer
We don't. And we also don't have the symbolism that the Israelis have adopted, right? The dog tags and the yellow ribbon and the. And it's everywhere. Right. And look, I. You know, it's funny. My wife is completely obsessed with the hostages, and she tracks their stories every day. And, you know, yellow ribbons on the car and yellow ribbons on the, you know, on the lapel. And you see everybody doing this across Israel. The right, the left, everybody talks about this. But for me, it comes down to really something that I think was a fundamental mistake made by the Bibi government early on in the war. And that was Yoav Gallant. It was, you know, it was Benny Gantt, Minister.
Jon Podhoretz
Yeah, right.
Jonathan Schanzer
Benny Gantz as well. Right. I mean, all of the sort of, you know, military minds and political minds of Israel in The immediate aftermath of October 7th, they declared two war aims. To defeat Hamas and to get back all the hostages. And if you get back all the hostages, you're making deals with Hamas and you are therefore allowing them to live another day. You're, you're making concessions to Hamas while you're getting back the hostages if you can't get them back by force. And so I think the Israelis have put themselves in a bind and I think you're right, John. At the end of the day, they need to change the conversation.
Jon Podhoretz
They need to know how that happens. Yeah, but you know, I mean, there is a, it's a kind of trade. And I think Christine's point about universal military service is important because the lives that are lost, if they are lost among 19 year olds and 20 year olds, it's not that they're, you know, hostages of the Israeli government in the, in the Israeli military. And they are there to fight for their country and to, if the military, one of the military missions is to save the hostages. That's a military mission as defined by the government. And they don't get to define their own war. But they're not there by choice. You know, they're not, they didn't sign up in order to go and patrol. You know, the, this pretty close to the Israeli, by the way. They, where, where this ambush took place was 3km from, from Kvaraza, one of the kibbutzim that was hit on October 7, very close to the border. So they're actually patrolling to try to make sure that nobody crosses into Israel again. But they didn't sign up for this. Like they sign up because they're Israelis and this is what they do. And their, their lives are just as valuable as the hostages lives. I mean, I just don't know how else to put it. And it's kind of a thing you're not allowed to say inside Israel. And maybe at some point you'll be able to say that.
Jonathan Schanzer
No, I, I think a different kind of national conversation is overdue. I think we can probably all agree on that. It doesn't mean that they have to throw the hostages under the bus, but I think folks need to understand what they're sacrificing when they prioritize the hostages over the end of the war. And I do think that Israelis are going to have to come to terms with that. And it's excruciating, it's brutal, given how important the hostages have become for the overall psyche of the Israeli people. But, you know, you can see this friction really coming into focus right now more and more, especially as you look at what happened in Iran, what's happening in Syria, what's happening in Lebanon, as, you know, a bunch of these fronts begin to recede. This one particular issue comes into sharp relief.
Jon Podhoretz
I do want to point out that Bibi, masterful political actor that he is, and people, the continuing underestimation of him by his rivals in Israel who think that he's got magical powers of survival or something like that, without understanding that, you know, he is a, as far as democratic politics go, he is a giant. That he went on Fox and said, you know, people said to me in the first weeks of this war, we've got to give up on the hostages. We have to understand we can't fight this war and save the hostages. And I, I did not accept that. He said, they told me I would need to give up on the hostages. But I, the prime minister said we can win this war and get the hostages home. And in fact, how many hostages have, have the majority.
Jonathan Schanzer
The majority have come home and that, that is important.
Jon Podhoretz
And he's, I don't know if that's true. I don't know what he is saying. I'm sure people had hard conversations.
Jonathan Schanzer
Yeah.
Jon Podhoretz
But I just thought that was a very interesting thing. Jonathan, you have to, you have to, you have to cut out. So just keep, as we say, keep your, keep your program until we download. So thanks so much for being with us.
Jonathan Schanzer
Thanks, guys.
Jon Podhoretz
Okay, I just want to, we have a couple more minutes to go and I just, Christine's got to go too. Okay. So Abe and I will finish up. So thanks, Christine. See you soon. Okay, Abe, you and I, I just want to finish up on something that came out last night. I think yesterday, yesterday or last night that a work of such profound jaw dropping hypocrisy that it had. I have to note it before we conclude here. New York Times opinion guest essay, the title, Biden's Chief Economist colon the chart that Convinced me Our Debt is a Serious Problem by Jared Bernstein, Chair of Joe Biden's Council of economic advisors from 2023 to 2025. I'm just going to read the first two paragraphs. Talk about this. Budget hawks have fretted for decades about America's deficits and debt, repeatedly advising our government to embrace greater fiscal austerity and for just as long budget does, myself included, fought this narrative repeatedly arguing that austerity often does more harm to our economy than good. No longer. I, like many other longtime doves, am joining the hawks, because our nation's budget math just got a lot more dangerous. If we continue to ignore the unforgiving trajectory we are on, we are inviting a debt shock, a kind of crisis that periodically hobbles lower income in developing countries. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. There's a chart that he's seen that shows how this might happen. I mean, I am speechless. Wouldn't begin to describe my reaction to the chutzpah of Jared Bernstein, a believer at some point or other in the famous modern monetary policy, which was that you can incur debt forever. The idea that we are facing debt shocks and fiscal cliffs and all of that was present on the table when Paul Ryan went to camp David in 20, either 2009 or 2010, and had an argument with Barack Obama on this very subject about the unsustainability of our fiscal trajectory. Now he was talking about the entitlements. This is about a combination of T bills and inflation. Well, this and that. The other thing, how much did Joe Biden add to the deficit and the debt, the national debt, during his time as president, when Jared Bernstein was president of the Council of Economic Advisors? I don't know. $10 billion, something. I don't know. Something like that. Well, $10 trillion. I mean. I mean, the debt. We have two definite. Debt and the deficit are two different. The deficit is the interest on the debt.
Christine Rosen
Anyway, it would be nice to think of this as the wrong people coming around to the right thing, you know, which is like the most powerful impetus for change. But it's partisan bs. I mean, and it's, you know, it's anti Trump and, you know, nonsense.
Jon Podhoretz
I can't believe he took pen to paper and wrote this thing. I mean, I'm having trouble thinking of an analog right to the budget director of the administration that added more money to the debt than any administration before it. Some of it because of COVID to be fair, but not just because of COVID Six months into the new administration.
Jonathan Schanzer
Right.
Jon Podhoretz
Oh, my God, there's a new chart. I never saw this chart. Why didn't someone bring me this chart when I was in a position to do something about it? I believe that the I am taking crazy pills formulation. I am not taking crazy pills. This is sophist. Intellectual contempt, the contemptibility of this. And I mean, you know, there's a lot of things that happen that are contemptible in politics. I mean, and in the way people talk about political economics in particular, you know, including Republicans who now they care about the debt one week and they don't care about the debt the next week and all of that.
Christine Rosen
Right, but and also, you know, when someone does something like this, right, and when, you know, they don't believe in the their proclaimed shift, it also means they didn't believe in their original position terribly either. You know, it turns it all into political expediency.
Jon Podhoretz
Right? Look, the point about government spending, if you're for it or you're against it, in whatever relation is you ultimately say we have more important things to do than keep our books in balance. There are things we have to do. And you know what? History shows that, you know, was it somebody said God loves, you know, fools, you know, the disabled in the United States, that somehow we'll pull our. Well, if we get ourselves into trouble, you know, we'll invent cold fusion, we'll do whatever, and then we'll have huge economic. And everything will be, will be solved because we need to spend this money on X now. Okay? So ultimately that's how all political economy works. And why when you're in power, you want to spend money and you don't want to save it, but I'm sorry, you can't then say, oh, I just figured out that we can't spend any more money and we need to cut the. Now that Republicans are spending the money, we need to change our entire fiscal trajectory. Because I don't, I don't have the auto pen to sign the checkbook with. I mean, you can, and he did, and the New York Times published it. And I'm sure that he'll be at the Aspen Ideas Festival next year and at every. At Davos in January. And nobody's gonna say, I can't talk to you because you're a filthy hypocrite who has never believed in anything. Right? So there's no consequence to it, but at least somebody should make note of it. Okay, so we're the last here on the sinking ship. So before we drown, we'll be back tomorrow. So, Abe, keep the candle burning.
Jonathan Schanzer
Foreign.
Unnamed Speaker
I'm so excited to talk to you, Carl. Talk to me, a guy who's had this illustrious business career. What made you decide to write a book on happiness? You could have gone in some of the other directions.
Well, actually, I didn't, Donnie. I didn't decide to write a book. Something happened. This happiness experiment happened in real life, in real terms. I had no idea about writing a book, but I saw it working. The experiment was working. My. My friends and family were getting happier. They're increasing their happiness. And I saw it. So I thought, I need to write about this. And so that's when I got into.
Writing the book and talk to me about prequesting. Talk to me what it's about and how it's the foundation of things.
Well, it came about through three major things that happened in life. One, I almost died in a plane crash. If you read the book, you'll find out whether I survived or not. The other thing that happened was I got a call from my sister in England. She told me her husband was dying. He had six months to live. So I flew to England and she was in my will. And I said, janet, you're in my will as a, as a bequest. But that's something you need right now. So I'm going to make it a prequest. I'm going to bring that bequest forward and pay it to you now while you can enjoy it and your husband can fulfill his last wishes. She was overjoyed, burst into tears, of course, and said, oh, this is great. My brother was there at the same time. I said, barry, since I've done this to, for my sister, I'm going to bring your bequest forward, make it a prequest. And he said, oh, that's fabulous. Thank you very much. You're very generous. His wife went ballistic. She says, it's too much money, it's wrong, I don't want anything to do with it. And stormed out of the room. So that was a real surprise. Anyhow, she got over it. And the next thing that happened is I look at my, my investments. I got a lot of money sitting. Investments, not doing anything. Wasn't working for me, wasn't working for my friends. So I said, why don't I use this money for my own success and happiness and also for my friends, the people that helped me get to be wealthy and successful. That's what I did.
So it's not a one time thing. This is kind of a lifetime experiment, if you will.
Yeah, it turned out that way because I didn't want to just give people money and say, you know, be happy. I said, I want this to enrich your life. Be something special. So I'd like you to think about it, plan something, write a happiness plan. They asked, what's a happiness plan? I said, when I get that, I'll give you all the money and let's see how it works out.
So you talk about coaching and grants to reshape and change lives, which is timely given what's going on in the world today.
Yeah, and the thing is that it wasn't just about the money, Donnie. The money's important. We love money. It's good to have it. But what really worked with these people was the planning with a happiness coach.
Jonathan Schanzer
They.
Unnamed Speaker
They thought about carefully what they wanted to do that's gonna enrich their life, make them happier, what things they love, things that they were fascinated with. And they wrote all that down with a happiness coach. They had a plan. And as soon as I got the plan, I said, here's the money, all of it. It's all yours. You don't owe me anything. No strings attached. And they went off and started becoming happier.
It's incredible. So the inspiration for this was just your, your. Your near death experience?
Well, that, that was part of it, but it was, it was a number of things that happened first. I was very, very grateful for the people that helped me to become successful. And I wanted. Being grateful is terrific. Okay. We love that you talk about gratitude and gratitude, journaling, all those sort of things. But the real thing is, is expressing the gratitude, telling somebody how much you care about them, appreciating what they did for you, writing a letter. It doesn't have to be about money. It can be possessions, it can be money, it can be attention, can be time, can be knowledge, your wisdom that you share with younger people. But it's what you're doing while you're still alive that counts. When you're dead, it's. It's over.
It's such a great. It's such a simple but brilliant point. And how do you think, let's say, play this out, that people kind of really buy into this intentional happiness and prequesting. How does the world become a better place? Let's take this up 10,000ft.
Well, it would be great. The reason I wrote the book is I want this idea to get into the world so that certainly the wealthy people, they can do the prequesting, make themselves and their friends and family happier right now while they're still alive. The other thing, I want the book to show how these people planned, thought about their happiness, created a happiness plan, and then worked it, and to become happier. And others can learn from their experiences reading their plans and then doing the same thing. And in the back of my book, there's a workbook which goes through that step by step, and a plan to increase your happiness.
How do we get this into the workplace, into schools, and kind of really, to your point, get this in there.
You know, that would be lovely if it went into the schools. And I think in, in high schools, this Would be a really good subject to put on the curriculum. How do you. What is happiness? How do you achieve happiness? What's it all about?
What is happiness?
It's a great question. You have to read my book. But in short, in short, emotion. We all know what happiness is. It's feeling good, it's joyful, it's exhilar, it's loving life. Is that so? It is a feeling, but it's also a mindset. You have to think that I deserve happiness. I want to be happy. I'm taking my happiness seriously. So it's heart and mind, not just one or the other. So it's that combination. But really I give but a whole chapter in the book on what is happiness. And it's a, it's a, it's a great chapter. You'll love the book.
Now, a lot of people, I can't, cannot, cannot wait to read it. I'm so excited. I'm like just turned on listening to you. A lot of people equate happiness to financial success and things. And what am I going to learn in the book about that?
Well, happy money is important. Okay, let's, let's get that off the table. Listen, but it's not going to buy you happiness. The good use of money is really important how you do it. But it's, it's, it's the mindset, it's the pursuit of happiness that counts. Taking your happiness seriously, wanting what you want. And what you want is important. Your dreams, your purposes in life, what you want to achieve in your career, what you want to. With your family, what you want to achieve. The purpose is all around what you value. Are you pursuing those values? Are you living those values? This is what it's all about. Money helps, but it's all those other spiritual things, if you like, psychological things that really the root of happiness. And as we all know, some people very rich and they're very unhappy.
And this, yes, a lot of people.
People are really happy.
I would say money can solve problems, but it can't buy you happiness. But you certainly can throw it at problems. But that's about the, the extent of it. So let's play this out. How is the. Right now the world could use this more than ever. So how does, let's say if I just did this fantasy and said, okay, everybody is going to, everybody's going to do this prequest. Everybody's going to do the happiness planning. What is, how does the world look different?
Well, as you know, Donnie, when you're happy, your family tends to be happy, your friends are happier, and happiness ripples, it spreads. And if this idea gets into the world, which I'm. I'm working very hard to do, get it into the world talking to you, because you're going to buy lots of these books and you're going to tell all your friends about it, right?
Yes, I am. Yes, I am.
If this goes, it spreads, it ripples, it doesn't stay just with you. It goes down to your family, to your friends, and to your community. And if a lot of wealthy people did this, and it's not just about wealth, it's possessions, it's time, it's love, it's wisdom that we can share with others while we're still alive here and now. And if that gets into the world and there's a lot of people start doing this and this, that the happiness level in the world will increase little by little. And I'd be very happy about that, Mr. Barney.
It's been inspirational talking to you. I am going to get this book immediately. I could recommend it just based on what we've talked about to anybody, because we all could use a little happiness. I appreciate you taking the time.
Happy to be here. Thanks, Donnie. Thank you.
Summary of "Is the Arc of History Bending Toward Bibi" – The Commentary Magazine Podcast
Release Date: July 10, 2025
Podcast: The Commentary Magazine Podcast
Host: Jon Podhoretz, Editor of Commentary Magazine
Guests: Abe Greenwald (Executive Editor), Christine Rosen (Social Commentary Columnist), Jonathan Schanzer (Contributing Editor, Foundation for Defensive Democracies)
Jon Podhoretz opens the discussion by highlighting the burgeoning relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (“Bibi”) and former U.S. President Donald Trump. He contrasts this "love fest" with assertions from commentators like Ross Douthat and Bret Stephens, who suggest that Israel might be harming its own standing with American public opinion post-October 7th attacks.
“This creates a sense that the Middle East could transform entirely... what we're seeing between Trump and Bibi is more than just a love fest; it's a vision for the Middle East.”
— Jon Podhoretz [02:39]
Jonathan Schanzer counters the notion that Israel is self-destructing, asserting that claims of Israel transforming the Middle East or destroying itself are premature. He emphasizes a "race between two timelines": one where Israel's detractors seek its downfall, and another where Netanyahu and Trump collaborate to reshape the region.
“Netanyahu and Trump are trying to transform the Middle East. They are defeating Iran and aiming for normalization with countries like Syria and Lebanon.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [02:50]
The conversation delves into the potential normalization of relations between Israel and neighboring Arab states. Schanzer outlines the strategic moves by Saudi Arabia, including interactions between Saudi leaders and former Israeli hostages like Idan Alexander, indicating a shift towards peace provided Israel refrains from ground invasions in Syria.
“Normalization is the alternative to war. Countries are weary of conflict and are considering peace in exchange for security guarantees against Iran.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [10:10]
Podhoretz adds historical context, referencing his father’s perspective on Israel’s wartime successes leading to lasting peace treaties.
“When Israel wins wars, it eliminates long-term enemies, leading them to make peace with Israel's existence.”
— Jon Podhoretz [06:02]
The discussion shifts to the complexities surrounding Gaza, including potential plans akin to Trump’s earlier "Gaza Lago plan," which envisages the relocation and transformation of Gaza into a tourist area. Schanzer raises concerns about Qatar’s involvement, noting Qatar’s historical support for Hamas and skepticism about their intentions.
“There’s a contest between the Saudis and the Qataris over how the Gaza situation ends. It’s crucial for Gaza to end on positive terms to facilitate regional normalization.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [16:42]
Christine Rosen questions what must occur for Saudi Arabia's leadership to consider the Palestinian issue resolved, prompting Schanzer to acknowledge it remains a significant hurdle.
“The Palestinian issue is still a sticking point, and resolving it is essential for lasting peace.”
— Christine Rosen [13:23]
Podhoretz explores the internal dynamics of Israel’s governing coalition, highlighting tensions between hardliners like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who advocate for the complete destruction of Hamas, versus public sentiment pushing for a ceasefire.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu is navigating a tense coalition, balancing hardline members who demand the destruction of Hamas against public exhaustion and desire for a ceasefire.”
— Jon Podhoretz [29:39]
Schanzer suggests Netanyahu may seek new elections to solidify his position and achieve his objectives, despite ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Yemen.
“Netanyahu may call for new elections to demonstrate his leadership and ability to secure peace, despite facing corruption charges and strong opposition.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [33:51]
The hosts draw parallels between the current Gaza conflict and historical wars, like Israel’s victories in previous wars that led to long-term peace, while acknowledging the unique challenges posed by non-traditional combatants like Hamas.
“Unlike traditional wars, this conflict involves non-surrendering, ideologically driven enemies, making it harder to secure a definitive end.”
— Christine Rosen [42:10]
Schanzer emphasizes the difficulty in negotiating with groups motivated by a combination of jihadism and Palestinian nationalism, which complicates peace efforts.
“Hamas’s ideology combines jihadism and Palestinian nationalism, making them relentless opponents who will fight to the end.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [48:08]
The discussion touches on the moral and strategic conundrums faced by Israel in choosing between military actions that could endanger hostages versus prolonging the conflict to ensure Hamas’s defeat.
“Israel faces excruciating choices: prioritize the lives of a few hostages or take decisive action against Hamas, potentially increasing casualties.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [43:08],
“This is the toughest decision Israel has to grapple with, balancing immediate humanitarian concerns against long-term security.”
— Schanzer [44:59]
Podhoretz and Schanzer conclude by reflecting on Netanyahu’s adept political maneuvering and the uncertain yet potentially transformative future of the Middle East. They acknowledge the complexity of the situation and the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy approach.
“The arc of history may indeed be bending toward Bibi, but the path forward is fraught with challenges that require careful, strategic planning.”
— Jon Podhoretz (General Sentiment)
Schanzer echoes the sentiment, emphasizing the need for deliberate and sustainable actions to ensure lasting peace and regional integration.
“If the plans are thoughtfully executed, this transformation could usher in a new era of peace and cooperation in the Middle East.”
— Jonathan Schanzer (Implied)
Jon Podhoretz [02:39]:
“This creates a sense that the Middle East could transform entirely... what we're seeing between Trump and Bibi is more than just a love fest; it's a vision for the Middle East.”
Jonathan Schanzer [02:50]:
“Netanyahu and Trump are trying to transform the Middle East. They are defeating Iran and aiming for normalization with countries like Syria and Lebanon.”
Jonathan Schanzer [10:10]:
“Normalization is the alternative to war. Countries are weary of conflict and are considering peace in exchange for security guarantees against Iran.”
Jon Podhoretz [06:02]:
“When Israel wins wars, it eliminates long-term enemies, leading them to make peace with Israel's existence.”
Christine Rosen [13:23]:
“The Palestinian issue is still a sticking point, and resolving it is essential for lasting peace.”
Jon Podhoretz [29:39]:
“Prime Minister Netanyahu is navigating a tense coalition, balancing hardline members who demand the destruction of Hamas against public exhaustion and desire for a ceasefire.”
Christine Rosen [42:10]:
“Unlike traditional wars, this conflict involves non-surrendering, ideologically driven enemies, making it harder to secure a definitive end.”
Strategic Alliances: The alliance between Netanyahu and Trump is pivotal in shaping the future of the Middle East, potentially leading to a significant geopolitical transformation by sidelining Iran and normalizing relations with key Arab states.
Normalization Efforts: Efforts towards normalization are gaining momentum, with Saudi Arabia showing signs of reconsidering its stance. However, Qatar’s conflicting interests pose a challenge to unified peace efforts.
Gaza’s Future: The resolution of conflicts in Gaza remains uncertain. Plans like the Gaza Lago proposal require careful implementation to avoid exacerbating the situation or perpetuating Hamas’s influence.
Internal Pressures: Netanyahu faces internal political challenges within his coalition, balancing hardliners with public demand for peace. His ability to navigate these pressures will be crucial for Israel’s stability and regional leadership.
Ethical and Practical Dilemmas: Israel grapples with the ethical implications of balancing hostage safety against the necessity of decisive military action to eliminate Hamas’s threat, highlighting the complex nature of modern asymmetric warfare.
Historical Parallels: While historical victories have led to lasting peace treaties, the unique ideological motivations of current adversaries like Hamas complicate the potential for a definitive and sustainable peace.
Future Prospects: The transformation of the Middle East hinges on strategic, coordinated efforts by key players like Netanyahu and Trump, with the potential for a more integrated and peaceful region if executed thoughtfully.
This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the full podcast.