Summary of "Is the Arc of History Bending Toward Bibi" – The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Release Date: July 10, 2025
Podcast: The Commentary Magazine Podcast
Host: Jon Podhoretz, Editor of Commentary Magazine
Guests: Abe Greenwald (Executive Editor), Christine Rosen (Social Commentary Columnist), Jonathan Schanzer (Contributing Editor, Foundation for Defensive Democracies)

1. Introduction and Current Geopolitical Landscape

Jon Podhoretz opens the discussion by highlighting the burgeoning relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (“Bibi”) and former U.S. President Donald Trump. He contrasts this "love fest" with assertions from commentators like Ross Douthat and Bret Stephens, who suggest that Israel might be harming its own standing with American public opinion post-October 7th attacks.

“This creates a sense that the Middle East could transform entirely... what we're seeing between Trump and Bibi is more than just a love fest; it's a vision for the Middle East.”
— Jon Podhoretz [02:39]

2. Netanyahu and Trump’s Strategic Alliance

Jonathan Schanzer counters the notion that Israel is self-destructing, asserting that claims of Israel transforming the Middle East or destroying itself are premature. He emphasizes a "race between two timelines": one where Israel's detractors seek its downfall, and another where Netanyahu and Trump collaborate to reshape the region.

“Netanyahu and Trump are trying to transform the Middle East. They are defeating Iran and aiming for normalization with countries like Syria and Lebanon.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [02:50]

3. Middle East Geopolitical Transformation and Normalization

The conversation delves into the potential normalization of relations between Israel and neighboring Arab states. Schanzer outlines the strategic moves by Saudi Arabia, including interactions between Saudi leaders and former Israeli hostages like Idan Alexander, indicating a shift towards peace provided Israel refrains from ground invasions in Syria.

“Normalization is the alternative to war. Countries are weary of conflict and are considering peace in exchange for security guarantees against Iran.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [10:10]

Podhoretz adds historical context, referencing his father’s perspective on Israel’s wartime successes leading to lasting peace treaties.

“When Israel wins wars, it eliminates long-term enemies, leading them to make peace with Israel's existence.”
— Jon Podhoretz [06:02]

4. Challenges with Gaza and Hostage Situations

The discussion shifts to the complexities surrounding Gaza, including potential plans akin to Trump’s earlier "Gaza Lago plan," which envisages the relocation and transformation of Gaza into a tourist area. Schanzer raises concerns about Qatar’s involvement, noting Qatar’s historical support for Hamas and skepticism about their intentions.

“There’s a contest between the Saudis and the Qataris over how the Gaza situation ends. It’s crucial for Gaza to end on positive terms to facilitate regional normalization.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [16:42]

Christine Rosen questions what must occur for Saudi Arabia's leadership to consider the Palestinian issue resolved, prompting Schanzer to acknowledge it remains a significant hurdle.

“The Palestinian issue is still a sticking point, and resolving it is essential for lasting peace.”
— Christine Rosen [13:23]

5. Internal Israeli Politics and Coalition Dynamics

Podhoretz explores the internal dynamics of Israel’s governing coalition, highlighting tensions between hardliners like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who advocate for the complete destruction of Hamas, versus public sentiment pushing for a ceasefire.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu is navigating a tense coalition, balancing hardline members who demand the destruction of Hamas against public exhaustion and desire for a ceasefire.”
— Jon Podhoretz [29:39]

Schanzer suggests Netanyahu may seek new elections to solidify his position and achieve his objectives, despite ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Yemen.

“Netanyahu may call for new elections to demonstrate his leadership and ability to secure peace, despite facing corruption charges and strong opposition.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [33:51]

6. Comparative Analysis with Historical Conflicts

The hosts draw parallels between the current Gaza conflict and historical wars, like Israel’s victories in previous wars that led to long-term peace, while acknowledging the unique challenges posed by non-traditional combatants like Hamas.

“Unlike traditional wars, this conflict involves non-surrendering, ideologically driven enemies, making it harder to secure a definitive end.”
— Christine Rosen [42:10]

Schanzer emphasizes the difficulty in negotiating with groups motivated by a combination of jihadism and Palestinian nationalism, which complicates peace efforts.

“Hamas’s ideology combines jihadism and Palestinian nationalism, making them relentless opponents who will fight to the end.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [48:08]

7. Ethical Dilemmas and Strategic Decisions

The discussion touches on the moral and strategic conundrums faced by Israel in choosing between military actions that could endanger hostages versus prolonging the conflict to ensure Hamas’s defeat.

“Israel faces excruciating choices: prioritize the lives of a few hostages or take decisive action against Hamas, potentially increasing casualties.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [43:08],
“This is the toughest decision Israel has to grapple with, balancing immediate humanitarian concerns against long-term security.”
— Schanzer [44:59]

8. Conclusion: The Future Trajectory

Podhoretz and Schanzer conclude by reflecting on Netanyahu’s adept political maneuvering and the uncertain yet potentially transformative future of the Middle East. They acknowledge the complexity of the situation and the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy approach.

“The arc of history may indeed be bending toward Bibi, but the path forward is fraught with challenges that require careful, strategic planning.”
— Jon Podhoretz (General Sentiment)

Schanzer echoes the sentiment, emphasizing the need for deliberate and sustainable actions to ensure lasting peace and regional integration.

“If the plans are thoughtfully executed, this transformation could usher in a new era of peace and cooperation in the Middle East.”
— Jonathan Schanzer (Implied)

Notable Quotes

• Jon Podhoretz [02:39]:
  “This creates a sense that the Middle East could transform entirely... what we're seeing between Trump and Bibi is more than just a love fest; it's a vision for the Middle East.”

• Jonathan Schanzer [02:50]:
  “Netanyahu and Trump are trying to transform the Middle East. They are defeating Iran and aiming for normalization with countries like Syria and Lebanon.”

• Jonathan Schanzer [10:10]:
  “Normalization is the alternative to war. Countries are weary of conflict and are considering peace in exchange for security guarantees against Iran.”

• Jon Podhoretz [06:02]:
  “When Israel wins wars, it eliminates long-term enemies, leading them to make peace with Israel's existence.”

• Christine Rosen [13:23]:
  “The Palestinian issue is still a sticking point, and resolving it is essential for lasting peace.”

• Jon Podhoretz [29:39]:
  “Prime Minister Netanyahu is navigating a tense coalition, balancing hardline members who demand the destruction of Hamas against public exhaustion and desire for a ceasefire.”

• Christine Rosen [42:10]:
  “Unlike traditional wars, this conflict involves non-surrendering, ideologically driven enemies, making it harder to secure a definitive end.”

Insights and Conclusions

• Strategic Alliances: The alliance between Netanyahu and Trump is pivotal in shaping the future of the Middle East, potentially leading to a significant geopolitical transformation by sidelining Iran and normalizing relations with key Arab states.

• Normalization Efforts: Efforts towards normalization are gaining momentum, with Saudi Arabia showing signs of reconsidering its stance. However, Qatar’s conflicting interests pose a challenge to unified peace efforts.

• Gaza’s Future: The resolution of conflicts in Gaza remains uncertain. Plans like the Gaza Lago proposal require careful implementation to avoid exacerbating the situation or perpetuating Hamas’s influence.

• Internal Pressures: Netanyahu faces internal political challenges within his coalition, balancing hardliners with public demand for peace. His ability to navigate these pressures will be crucial for Israel’s stability and regional leadership.

• Ethical and Practical Dilemmas: Israel grapples with the ethical implications of balancing hostage safety against the necessity of decisive military action to eliminate Hamas’s threat, highlighting the complex nature of modern asymmetric warfare.

• Historical Parallels: While historical victories have led to lasting peace treaties, the unique ideological motivations of current adversaries like Hamas complicate the potential for a definitive and sustainable peace.

• Future Prospects: The transformation of the Middle East hinges on strategic, coordinated efforts by key players like Netanyahu and Trump, with the potential for a more integrated and peaceful region if executed thoughtfully.

This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the full podcast.