The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: "Is This The End of the Iranian Regime?"

Date: January 13, 2026

Host: John Podhoretz
Panelists: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel
Guest: Eli Lake (Commentary contributing editor & columnist at The Free Press)

Overview

This episode confronts the dramatic events unfolding in Iran, where the Islamic Republic appears to be facing the greatest threat to its regime in its 47-year history. The panel dissects whether these events represent the true endgame for the mullahs, discusses the nature and impact of the protests, the regime’s response, and deeply analyzes internal and external factors that could shape the outcome—especially the debate over U.S. and Israeli involvement. The conversation weaves history, strategy, psychology, and sharp critique into a gripping account of a potential turning point in geopolitics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Severity and Nature of Iran’s Current Crisis

• Regime Violence and Social Upheaval
  • Reports indicate the state killed 2,000–12,000 protesters in 48 hours, using snipers and live fire (00:54).
  • Eli Lake highlights that while mass slaughter is hardly hopeful, it signals “an extraordinary crisis of legitimacy” (02:17).
  • Reference to the 1979 revolution and the “death cycle” of mass funerals turning into larger protests (03:00–04:39).

Quote:

“We are seeing...the regime's propagandists pointing to what was clearly, you know, a Potemkin rally in Tehran. But they have to try to say that because they are so loathed and despised...”
— Eli Lake (02:17)

2. Regime Fragility: The Erosion of Authority

• Loss of Legitimacy
  • The regime’s failure to enforce the hijab law, not for lack of will but capability, is emblematic of its erosion of authority (05:19).
  • Elite groups like the “bizarre” (merchant class) joining the protests is historically significant, as they were key in past revolutions (06:45–07:45).
• Calls for Change from Unexpected Quarters
  • Even hardliners like former President Ahmadinejad are advocating for referenda, underlining deep internal fractures (07:51–08:18).

Quote:

“It's not that the moderates got in the ear of Ayatollah Khamenei. It was because they could not enforce the hijab law. Literally, the morality police couldn't do it.”
— Eli Lake (05:35)

3. Totalitarianism, Fear, and the Myth of Invincibility

• Dynamics of Repression
  • The regime’s willingness to escalate violence reflects a belief in self-preservation at any cost (09:49–11:00).
  • Panel discusses historical precedents—Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, Tiananmen Square—and the possibility that fear may no longer be enough (11:16).

Quote:

“The key for these revolutions to work is when you have disobedience in the military, in the security services...For some people, it's not just a matter of conscience. It's a matter of, well, what are they going to do to me when this is over?”
— Eli Lake (11:39)

4. Potential for Military and Diplomatic Fractures

• Possible Military Defections

  • Some officers may be willing to defect. Eli Lake references conversations with figures in opposition confirming this possibility (11:39).
  • The panel discusses the regime's own recognition that those who lose power risk retribution by the people.

• Strategic Options for the West

  • The importance of creative diplomacy: offering safe havens for defecting elite figures and utilizing intelligence assets (13:50–16:05).
  • Skepticism about an exclusively internal revolution without exogenous (foreign) assistance (16:09).

5. Role of the U.S. and Israel: Ethics, Strategy, and Stakes

• Should America Intervene?
  • Podhoretz argues U.S. or Israeli intervention would likely be decisive (16:09–18:54).
  • Apprehension over U.S. involvement without a post-regime plan; historical failures and bureaucracy’s lack of “off-the-shelf” options are scrutinized (22:29).

Quote:

“If we, America, decide to get materially involved...That's the only way that we're going to get to the final stage. And that's the fight now under discussion.”
— John Podhoretz (16:09)

• Diplomatic Leverage Through Sanctions and Diaspora
  • Western countries hosting the families of Iranian elites could threaten deportation as leverage (26:01–29:02).

Quote:

“Ali Larajani, by the way, his daughter teaches at a nursing program at Emory University. Now, the message to Ali or Larajani can be very simple: Your daughter seems to have a very nice life in Atlanta. Would you like her to continue…?”
— Eli Lake (26:31)

6. Internal Collapse vs. External Pressure: Which Matters More?

• Socio-Economic Drivers
  • Explosive inflation and loss of status among the regime's foot soldiers (paramilitary Basijis) create desperation that might trump fear (31:31–32:32).
  • Panel underscores that totalitarian regimes do not typically collapse from mass demonstrations alone, challenging the hope for a “Tahrir Square” outcome in Iran (30:11–30:53).

7. Succession Crisis and the Khamenei Factor

• Khamenei's Health and Uncertain Future
  • The Supreme Leader’s age (turning 87) and unclear succession plan are immediate concerns (34:07–35:16).
  • A power vacuum or succession fight could further destabilize the regime (34:04–35:16).

8. Historical Context: Misreading the 1953 Coup and Western Guilt

• The Mossadegh Coup and Its Aftermath
  • Eli Lake unpacks the myth versus reality of the 1953 coup, challenging the dominant “America is at fault” narrative (44:46–53:23).
  • The Revolution of 1979 is reframed as the most reactionary event of the 20th century, an anti-modern, anti-American backlash with broad historical repercussions (53:23–56:04).

Quote:

“You have to understand the Iranian revolution as the most reactionary act of the 20th century, that it was a way of saying, no, stop. We do not want this. Women with the vote, equal rights...This must stop.”
— John Podhoretz (53:23)

9. American Political Debate: Action vs. Non-Intervention

• Internal U.S. Divisions
  • Some within the Trump administration advocate for negotiation, others for hard intervention. The left/right anti-interventionist horseshoe is exposed (38:47–41:10).
  • The panel debates the risks of “pushing too hard” in supporting the Iranian opposition (37:58–41:10).

10. Looking Ahead: Predictions and Tipping Points

• Lightning Round: What Will Trump Do? (64:12–68:29)

  • Panelists rate the likely scale of U.S. intervention on a 1–10 scale:
    • Eli Lake, Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel: “6” — heavy cyber and visible support, but not direct armed removal.
    • John Podhoretz: “8” — possibly decisive U.S. action, akin to the operation in Venezuela.
  • Emphasis on the importance of visual, demonstrative action—something Trump can point to for political capital (41:25, 67:54).

• Potential New Foreign Policy Paradigm

  • If regime change succeeds without a regional war or occupation, panelists argue it will end America’s “Iraq syndrome” and redefine intervention debates for decades (74:43).

Quote:

“If Iran falls and you had same thing with Hezbollah and Lebanon, all this stuff. I mean, I basically think we're there, honestly...That's the end of Iraq syndrome, I think, once and for all.”
— Abe Greenwald (74:43)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Eli Lake: “The Iranian foreign minister privately told [Brett McGurk]...the reason why the regime stays in power is because it is willing to kill its opposition.” (02:17)
• Eli Lake: “The regime that claims to be anointed by God is now denying Shia burial rites. That’s an own-legitimacy crisis.” (05:19)
• Abe Greenwald: “For Trump, his real objective is not even necessarily to push it over, but to just keep them off balance and stop them from regaining their footing enough for the protesters to continue.” (24:33)
• John Podhoretz: “The question of whether or not massive civil unrest can unseat a deeply rooted two-generation regime, world history tells us that has never happened.” (30:17)
• Eli Lake: “In the great book by Eric Hoffer, True Believer...What he talks about is the sudden loss of status for people who we might call middle class into extreme poverty. That’s usually the driver. We are seeing that in real time in Iran.” (31:31)

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:54–05:19: Assessing regime violence, historic legitimacy crisis, role of funerals and social unrest.
• 06:45–09:49: The merchant class and revolutions, the role of the “bizarre.”
• 11:39–16:05: Military fissures, possibility of defection, creative diplomacy, U.S. and Israeli options.
• 16:09–24:33: US/Israeli intervention debate, scale of involvement, bureaucracy inertia.
• 26:01–29:02: Strategic use of sanctions and diaspora leverage.
• 30:11–32:32: The rarity of totalitarian regimes falling to mass protests; Iran on edge.
• 34:04–35:16: Khamenei succession crisis and regime vulnerability.
• 44:46–53:23: Historical context: 1953 coup, Mossadegh, myth-busting for policy clarity.
• 64:12–68:29: Lightning round on expected American moves—a scale from “do nothing” to “direct regime change.”
• 74:43: End of “Iraq Syndrome”—paradigm shift if Iran falls without catastrophic aftermath.

Language and Tone

The conversation is sharp, erudite, and at times sardonic. The hosts draw on deep historical knowledge, blending analysis with criticism of both foreign regimes and American policy inertia/naïveté. There is an undercurrent of urgency, skepticism, and at points, grim wit—matching the gravity and unclear outcomes of the present Iranian upheaval.

Conclusion

The panel agrees that Iran is closer than ever to regime collapse, with internal unrest, economic chaos, and global pressure converging. Yet they are acutely aware that history is not deterministic—success could hinge on deft U.S. and allied support as well as the regime’s own failures. Failure to grasp the opportunity, misreading history, or repeating past passivity could leave Iran’s people once again trapped under a brutal regime. The next moves by the Trump administration and international players may well define the geopolitics of the Middle East for a generation.