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- [00:00]
A
Hey, it's John. I want to talk to you about Shopify. A lot of people talk to me about starting podcasts. This podcast is 10 years old. It's in a different place from a lot of podcasts because we're obviously part of a nonprofit institution and it's not a way that we are seeking to earn our livelihoods. But a lot of people look at this and say this is something I can really do to create a business and run the business and do it in a really comfortable, practical and serious way. Gotta wear a lot of different hats when you start your own business. Can be very intimidating. But one of the things that I know from a lot of people is that if your to do list is growing and growing and growing and that list starts to overrun your life, you need a tool that not only helps you out, but simplifies everything that can be a game changer for millions of businesses. That tool is Shopify, the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in the US from household names to brands. Just getting started. You get started with your own design studio. With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store to match your brand style. You can accelerate your content creation because it's packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions, page headlines, and even enhance your product photography. You get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you. Easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling. And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into Kaching. With Shopify on your side, sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com commentary go to shopify.com commentary that's shopify.com commentary hope for the Expect the wor Some preacher pain some die of thirst no way of knowing this way it's going Hope for the best expect the worst. Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily podcast. Today is Monday, October 6, 2025. I am John Pot Hor, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me, as always, executive editor Abe Greenwald. Hi Abe.
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B
Hi, John.
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A
Got a little frog in your throat? We're going to try to deal with that. We got social Commentary columnist Christine Rosen. Hi Christine.
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C
Hi John.
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A
And joining us today, Commentary's contributing editor and Poobah Honcho, big cheese at the foundation for Dement's foundation for the Defense of Democracies and author of the lead piece currently on the commentary.org website, Jonathan Schanzer. Welcome back, Jonathan.
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D
Hello, John.
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A
So what you, what you argue in your blog post@comMENTARY.org is that far from the September 9th Israeli strike against Hamas targets in Doha gutter or Qatar being a failure, which is what we were told it was, because it did not, in fact eliminate the four leading figures in Hamas, that this may have been the hinge moment that may be bringing this war to a close. This week, as Israelis, Americans, Egyptians, Gutteris all descend on Cairo to hammer out the final details of a possible complete return of the hostages to Israel and some pursuit of some version of the Trump 20 point peace plan. This is an important argument because everything that Israel does, of course, is scrutinized negatively. And the idea that they might actually have succeeded in a mission to get their war aims completed, even though the mission's purported purpose, or what we could take to be its port of purpose, was not in fact achieved, speaks to just how remarkably flexible this war and the Israelis have been in conducting a war against not just Hamas, but against the seven Front Iranian effort to destabilize, undermine and bring Israel to its knees.
- [05:14]
D
Yeah, so I mean, a couple things about that attack. First of all, it wasn't entirely unsuccessful just in it ended up killing three Hamas bodyguards as well as Humam Al Haya, the son of Khalil Al Haya, who is actually believed or is actually described as the head of Hamas in Gaza, even though he's based in Doha. And then on top of that, there was a Qatari guard that was killed. And so in other words, there was blood on the carpet after the September 9th attack. That was, I think, a really important moment. I spoke to a senior Gulf diplomat the day after the attack and I said, what do you think? I mean, you know, the Israelis did something bold. They went after Hamas, they went after Qatar. And it was interesting, the Gulf diplomat said, I don't like how close this was to, to home. And I think that was how everybody felt in the Gulf. The Qataris, the Emiratis, the Bahrainis, the Kuwaitis, they all said, wait a minute, we thought we were way over here. And you know, the Jordanians and the Egyptians and the Lebanese and the Israelis, let them deal with all the mess that we stir up from time to time. And all of a sudden I think there was this realization like, ooh, okay, this is now our problem. And the war actually keeps encroaching upon them. You look at what's been going on in Yemen, and you get a sense that it.
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E
And obviously the battle with Iran for 12 days in June where there were missiles flying over their airspace. Nobody likes this anymore. Nobody thinks that they can manipulate this any longer. And I think chief among them are the Qataris.
- [07:12]
D
They began to realize that Israel could attack them and could attack them again, and that if they could hit Hamas, they could hit Qatari royals. And so basically, Trump said, I'm going to use this moment, I'm going to use it as leverage. And he said, look, you want this, you don't want this again. You want to get security guarantees from the United States, okay, you got to help bring Hamas to the table, and you got to end this thing. And that appears to be what the Qataris are trying to do. Now, I say trying to because, and this is the one kind of caveat to the piece that I wrote for the website, I don't know whether the Qataris have the juice. And this is the big moment where we find out where the Qataris have long said, oh, well, we, you know, we keep them on our soil, these Hamas guys, so that we can bring peace to the region, that we can negotiate things. Well, they couldn't get all the hostages out. Either they didn't want to or they weren't able to. So the Israelis said, okay, well, you're of no use to us any longer. Boom, we're going to go start hitting Hamas guys in Doha. And now the Qataris are saying, wait, wait, wait, we actually can do this. And now they have to prove it. So we're all waiting right now to find out whether the Qataris can deliver their terrorist clients or whether this was all just part of a plan that they thought they could get away with for a very long time, which is to foment radicalism and terrorism and violence on the other side of the Middle east with no cost.
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B
Can I, Can I ask a question about this? Whether Qatar has the juice or not? Is it the question? Could you frame the question as, does anyone have the juice? In other words, is there any way or there either is or isn't a way to persuade Hamas to stop? It's not. I don't know that it's a question of Qatar exactly, but they just want to stop.
- [09:25]
A
Well, that's the question of this week, which is, is, is Hamas committed to pursuing this effort, using the hostages as their shield to whatever constitutes a bitter end, or is there not that they'll see reason? That's not. That's not the right way to put it. But maybe what they do is beat whatever tactical retreat they can beat to try to live to fight another day. Maybe building on the Release of the 2000 prisoners in Israeli jails after having lost so many of their own fighters. They got these people, they're going to come out. Assuming this negotiation is successful. And wherever they are, however they are, might constitute a new basis for a movement that will have to rebuild. So do they say, look, we're engaged in 100 year struggle here, we gave this shot here, we'll just go back and start the process of building up again? Or do they say, this is it, you know, it's like, you know, Macbeth at the end of Macbeth. I know I'm going to. I know I'm done, but I might as well just try to kill everybody in the room before they get me because I'm going to go out in a blaze of glory.
- [10:55]
C
But, yeah, I think I was just going to add to that question. Does that mean that what we have said on this podcast for two years, which is that if Hamas remains armed and in power in any way, shape or form, that they win at some level and Israel loses long term? That question. And also, Jonathan, I'm curious your thoughts on the American security guarantees for Qatar, because we had a little debate about that last week. Is that a fig leaf or is that something with any sort of meat.
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D
On its bones look on that? I think if you read the language, it, I think, was far too generous to the Qataris. To me, actually, I have to say the most important thing that came out of that announcement at the press conference with Bibi was actually something that no one's really talked about, which is this trilateral mechanism between Israel, the United States and Qatar for the first time, where Israel can actually air its grievances with the Qataris and start to say, look, you can't have these Hamas people on your soil. Or the vitriol from Al Jazeera has been too much, it's been too anti Semitic, it's been too anti Israel. You need to dial it back. And the US Would agree. And then all of a sudden there's pressure on the Qataris. If you do that and the Qataris end up delivering Hamas to end the war. Okay. I mean, I suppose, you know, we can try this security guarantee thing for a while. I don't know who else wants to attack the Qataris right now. Actually, that's not true. I mean, I think the Saudis would probably dream of it. I think the Emiratis Dream of it, but whether they would do it or not is another story. But, you know, as for the strategy of Hamas moving forward, I mean, let me say, I think we have a couple of different options. You know, we're kind of at a fork in the road of sorts. There is the PLO model, right? Which is the PLO gets forced out.
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E
Of Lebanon in the early 1980s, they move to Tunisia, they find an external headquarters, and they bide their time. And then ultimately, they find that opening the way that Arafat did with the beginning of the Oslo process, and he weasels his way into the Gaza Strip and then launches more terror against Israel. And that's kind of his swan song. That's a possibility for Hamas. They might look like the moderates at the end of another decade or so, and that's scary. But that's exactly what happened with the PLO back in the 80s. We could be watching history repeat, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them sent into exile.
- [13:27]
D
Maybe it's Turkey, maybe it's Malaysia, maybe it's Iran itself. I mean, but you can imagine there are lots of places that would be willing to take these guys. By the way, keep an eye on the Algerians, too. They might be willing to accept Hamas. And any country that's willing to accept Hamas should immediately be shunned as far as American foreign policy is concerned. I think even if we agree that that's where they go, I think they should be put in a corner and they should be punished for it, because they are, at the end of the day, raising their hand to be state sponsors of terrorism. There is the blaze of glory kind of mentality, which we may see. You know, I was talking to a friend in Israel. They said it's 65, 35, 70, 30, that a deal gets done. If you have that 30 or 35 and it goes the wrong way, then, yes, they kill all the hostages and they fight till the very end, and it's just terrible bloodshed. And, you know, and Donald Trump gives Bibi the green light to obliterate Hamas. That's. Those are his words. I think he used them with Jake Tapper. I think it was yesterday. By the way, that's a little bit like the dog catching the mailman for Bibi. Does he even want to go that far, given how much pressure Israel has been under internationally? And I think there. There is some interesting calculus for. For Bibi to think about. But then there's, like, the other way that I think, you know, this thing could go, which is they say no, right now. And the Arab world led by the Qataris, but it includes now, you know, the Emiratis, the Saudis, the Egyptians, they're all telling Hamas to pack it in. And if they say no now, there will be more potential pressure because Donald Trump is going to lean on all these countries to go back and squeeze them more. And you can actually already see Khalil Al Haya, this, this guy that's been based in Doha over the weekend. And I opened the piece on the website with this little vignette. They put him on Qatari TV and he did not look happy. He looked like he was kind of being held there at the point of a gun almost. And you get a sense that the Qataris have basically, I think they now understand it's in their interest to get this security guarantee with the United States and they can kind of kick Qatar to the side or kick Hamas to the side rather.
- [16:00]
E
They don't need Hamas as much as they used to. They just got what they were looking for. They're now in the big leagues. They are major non NATO allies with security guarantees from the United States. Maybe Hamas was expendable. At the end of the day, Hamas may need to test that theory for just a minute to find out how important they were. But I think the Qataris know, I think the Emiratis know. The Egyptians are done with this, the Jordanians are done with this. Nobody wants this war anymore.
- [16:30]
D
And so if you ask me, Hamas's moment may have finally come to an end. It doesn't mean that its moment hasn't, is still not here in the United States where you still have all these useful idiots waving Palestinian flags and wearing keffiyehs. But I think internationally, Hamas moment may have at star may be fading.
- [16:55]
A
So what's so important about this moment, I think, and the way in which the negotiations are proceeding is that they flip the script. This is the thing that I think people haven't quite factored in. So the general line that Hamas and its Kadamites and supporters and everybody have been taking is cease fire and then we negotiate over getting the hostages back. This is the flip. The flip is hostages back and then there is a plan for what is not even a ceasefire. That is to say Trump has said right now, don't, you know, don't, don't make offensive moves in Gaza City while this is going on. But the three stage withdrawal plan exists as a three stage withdrawal plan. Because you withdraw from one area doesn't mean that the other areas are pacific. Suddenly that's why you don't do it all at once. It's a phased end of the war. I mean, Trump will say if the deal comes through that the war is over. But that doesn't mean that Israel is not going to be in a position, if you look at the map in these areas, that it will, that where the next phases haven't yet been implemented, that they won't be at work protecting their forces, dealing with tunnels, dealing with possible existence of missiles that are still being hidden in various places and all of that. So in some sense, the Israelis will be winning because they will have gotten the hostages back, which was not really a war aim. Exactly. I mean, it's because they've gotten hostages back without being at war, but because their offensive military activities will not come to an end. I mean, they may, because there may not be anybody fighting against them anymore. But giving an example of this that really hasn't been spoken of, I think we would have said once we discovered the extent of the tunnel system that there's no way that Israel can end this war on a successful note with the tunnels still being intact. So what happens now? Tunnels are not mentioned in the 20 point plan. Israel is going to spend the next six months destroying the tunnel system. It, I would guess, or pouring concrete into the tunnel system or doing whatever it is without, you know, putting bombs in it to destroy the tunnel system. That's not exactly an aggressive offensive military action, but it is the elimination of the battlefield that they didn't know existed before October 7th.
- [19:54]
D
Yeah, okay. Yeah. I think there are a lot of open questions, I think, to your point. But let me just note, the first thing that I heard from friends in Israel over the weekend was we never thought that we would be allowed by the President of the United States to keep our forces in Gaza, deep in Gaza with hostages being returned. And that is a major achievement from their perspective. In other words, I think that they thought they would have to withdraw all the way to the other side of the border and wait for the hostages to be released. That's not what Hamas is asking for right now. They're basically saying, look, we're going to get your hostages out, or as many as we can find. I think that's an important little caveat. We may not get all the dead hostages back. There may be 20 live hostages and there are 22 dead hostages and there'll be another six unaccounted for and the Israelis are going to have to be okay with it. We actually also may see the return of live hostages and then A postponing of the return of the deceased hostages as part of a phased deal as this thing continues to get worked out. But I think the important thing that we all need to keep an eye on is the willingness of Hamas to dismantle itself, to turn in all of its weapons, and to stop fighting. Because once that happens, then you can.
- [21:19]
E
Begin to see new government structures being stood up. Foreign entities like Saudi or the Emirates.
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D
Or the UN or the US or the EU or whomever going in to start to stabilize what's going on in.
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E
Gaza, to start to remove rubble, to start to rebuild hospitals and schools and things like that. That can't happen while Hamas is still in power, while Hamas is still fighting, while there is still some kind of asymmetric, organized urban war. Now, the one thing that I think we should all just acknowledge is that this won't be simple. Even if Hamas decides to lay down its arms, that doesn't mean that all of these idiots in tracksuits with Kalashnikovs are all going to agree to lay down their arms, too. So we could still see some kind of minor insurgency that continues in Gaza, even if Hamas's top leaders, of which there are apparently like five left. I mean, the Israelis are literally talking about. They're calling Izzed Al Haddad the last Hamas commander. Right? This guy's literally around because of a process of elimination. Everybody else has been killed. There's only a handful of these top leaders left. They all say, okay, we're done. The Qataris have given up on us. The Arab world's given up on us. Even Iran, if you saw today, there was an item in. I found it in Al Arabiya, of.
- [22:45]
D
All places, where Iran said, look, if this ends the bloodshed in Gaza, we support the end of the war. That's amazing. Okay, but that doesn't mean that the fighting stops. It just means that there's now more opportunity for some of these other actors to come in. And then, yes, John, I think the goal is eventually to have, whether it's Israelis or private contractors or, I don't know, some other actor go in, start to fill those tunnels with concrete, start to pull all the weaponry out, all the explosives needs to come out. And then at some point, you start to create sectors within Gaza, each one anchored probably to a municipal center. Khan Younis, Jabalia, Gaza City, Rafah, etc. And they start trying to build out municipal services and to actually start to give the Gazan people some semblance of a normal life. But that's going to take a long time and I don't think anybody's thought through how long this takes, what the timeline looks like. We just know that the fighting needs to stop sooner rather than later. The hostages need to be returned, the reason for the hostilities needs to be dealt with and then hopefully we start to move forward.
- [24:02]
A
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Classic fit denim and real leather and wool outerwear that looks sharp and holds up. You know I wear a lot of Quinn sweaters. If you watch us on YouTube, you're going to see quince sweaters all winter. But I got my eye on their suede trucker jacket. It's perfect for layering and just looks really casual. But put together by partnering directly with ethical factories and top artisans, Quince cuts out the middlemen to deliver premium quality at half the cost of similar brands. So layer up this fall with pieces that feel as good as they look. Go to quints.com commentary for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q U I n c e.com commentary free shipping and 365 day returns. Quints.com commentary I mean it's an interesting question about what moving forward means because you are, you are talking about this long term goal of creating a Gaza for Gazans and making this possible. And what will the polity look like when things are pacified tomorrow? Marks of course the end of the second year of fighting or it'll be two years since the fences were cut and the terrorists came in to murder 1200 Israelis and wound another 3500 on that morning of October 7th. And I'm going to confess I don't care what happens to Gaza and the Gazans compared to what is happening to Israel. My nephew is now on his sixth deployment since the beginning of this war. He's 41 years old. 40 years old with two kids. My nephew in law also back in the reserves, he's in his mid-30s. Story is duplicated by tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Israelis. They should not have to fight any longer. They should be allowed to resume their lives and there'll be a reckoning in Israel. I know people keep thinking that it should be happening as the war is going on, which I think is demented. I mean there's going to be a significant reckoning on the question of blame, how this happened, what strategic errors were made over the 10 years before the war started. But the question here is what Israel gets for the wounds that it has suffered. In my view, that's the moral frame. The moral framework is we have ended up in the west trans valuing this Israel was attacked, did not want to be at war, had been paying Hamas off basically for a decade to keep them quiet through the gutteries. Or maybe half a decade. Had been like allowing money to go to Hamas to keep them quiet. That money was used to help create the conditions for this war. And when I say I don't care, I mean I would obviously be happier if children are fed and you know, things are nice and there's a nice school for them and maybe there's some real estate construction so that they can all have good jobs and all of that. But, you know, there's a lot of countries in the world where people are suffering and children are suffering and there's poverty and, and, and there's, and there's all sorts of terrible troubles. And nobody visits that, visits that moral stain on me and says I'm supposed to care about that. Nobody's yammering at me about troubles in countries that I pay no attention to in parts of the world that I'm not connected to. This is somehow something that we in the west are supposed to care about more than we care about the fact that Israel has apparently, in fighting this war, reshaped the Middle east single handedly in a way that can only be salubrious. By which I mean the downgrading of Iran's offensive capabilities, the elimination, surprise elimination or ending of the genocidal Assad regime in Syria, this change in the temperature with Qatar, which has a lot to answer for in terms of what's happened here in the United States with the rise of anti Semitism over the past two years and over the past two decades and the general application of the idea that force can be used for good purposes, even though many in the west don't believe it's for good purposes, has been a signal achievement in the 21st century. And I think it, and we think it, and a lot of people don't think it. But it is factually accurate to say that when Trump issued the 20 point plan, that plan altered the way in which the west has thought about how to make peace between Israel and the Arabs for all time.
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D
So.
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B
Just one, just before we get to that point, John, I agree with you about the future of Gaza, but I care, to the extent that I don't want to see a rebuilding of culture and institutions that could result in the same situation.
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A
Oh, of course. But I mean that again gets to the defense of Israel, not to the creation of a model new state that can show us the way for this.
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C
Is, but this is, this is where you left another thing off your list, I think is important, which is the, the hollowness that many of us already knew to exist at the U.N. but that was, I think, more broadly exposed with UNRA and all of the obvious collusion that they had with Hamas. But that's why I wonder, you know, one of the reasons they've had difficulty in confirming to the Red Cross and other institutions the position in place of the hostages, even the number at times is the other, the existence of other militant groups in Gaza, also funded by Iran, smaller, but who don't necessarily take their orders from Hamas. And so that's where I think the question of the rebuilding has to be framed, as you say, John, entirely based on what is the. The first and foremost principle should be Israel's security. If that means a larger border, some sort of DMZ ideas that were all tossed out, you know, over the last several rounds of negotiations to end the war. That has to start to become more clear because Hamas, not laying down his weapons, is still poses a threat to Israel in the form of other militant groups, some of whom worked with Hamas during this, during the past two years to. To hold hostages and do other things. But the. I don't want to see any group like the un, Any of the groups that were complicit for the last several decades in helping Hamas, aiding them, looking the other way as they stole aid to fund their terrorist activities. That's got to be something. And that's a role for the United States, which Trump has already sort of taken on pretty coldly.
- [33:56]
A
This is a very important point because what happened that we were all outraged by, and the supporters of Israel outraged by the Macron Carney Starmer game of recognizing the Palestinian. Having this scene at the UN Doing this basically may have turned out to have been a jiu jitsu move of really key proportions. Because the idea is, okay, you know what? These guys cannot be trusted. They're not honest broke. They're not even like honest brokers who are willing to look at what Israel should do and what the Hamas should do and all of that. They're playing domestic games with their own internal Muslim populations and trying to get a leg up on their own domestic political problems. And the UN has been completely cut out. Everything that is happening here in the most important negotiation in the world will not involve the United nations and the Secretary of such a good thing.
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C
This is such a positive development.
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A
Yeah. And this. And usually we offload it onto the UN Right. We're like, okay, let's all go to the UN and we'll use the free facilities of the UN and use it as the international negotiating forum and the method of creating the. The groups that will monitor the peace and do this and do that. And the Secretary of State yesterday of the United States said, forget a Palestinian state like you think that if either. If Hamas remains in. In existence and the Palestinian Authority remains in the form that it is in, that there will be a Palestinian state. I am. The secretary said, I'm telling you, no, this is transformational. Since 1969, the idea that the end solution to the troubles here was the creation of a Palestinian state has been axiomatic most of my lifetime to the entire diplomatic world, including the State Department, the United States, and we have just ended that.
- [36:17]
D
So let me a couple of responses to all these fascinating points that have just been made. First is this idea that there is no military solution to problems. I think we can now say that's not a thing, right? There are military solutions to these problems. The evisceration of Hamas and its fighting force and its leadership, the evisceration of Hezbollah through beepers, through pagers, through massive bombings, the collapse of the Assad regime, that was a good thing. That has only benefited humanity. Even if there's an Al Qaeda guy that's running this. Israel's bombing of Qatar, right, was the thing that brought this slimy dirtbag regime to the table. I see military solutions across the board, and it does make you wonder why we didn't see them sooner. And this actually brings me to the way in which the US and the international community continues to constrain Israel. And this is historical, right? Israel has this lightning wind in 67, and they get their butts kicked in the beginning in 1973, but then they come back and they turn the tables and then the US Needs to hold them back. Every time the Israelis have fought Hezbollah, every time they've fought Hamas over the last two decades, it has been the international community, the US Leading the way. We've been restraining the Israelis. Does make you wonder, what if they actually just won? Would we still be talking about all these conflicts? And it is kind of insane to me.
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E
And that does get, of course, to.
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D
The failure of international system.
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E
I would argue that the system as we know it is just a complete disgrace.
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D
And I think more and more people are seeing it.
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E
The bandwagoning, the idiocy that we saw about a Palestinian state, by the way, I mean, I probably need to read, I need to write a piece for commentary about this, but in 2012, there was a vote for a Palestinian state. You know how many countries voted in favor of it back in 2012? 138. Do you know how many supported it just now in 2025?
- [38:34]
D
145. They have seven more countries and everybody's going crazy like this is Palestine's moment and it still amounted to nothing because the UN is a clown car act. And I just, I don't see this system ever recovering from this moment or not to mention the Russia moment, not to mention how ineffectual they are in the face of Chinese aggression and Uyghur genocide. So all of this has just been insane. But, John, to your point, the map has changed. Everything is going in the right way. However, if you look at the way that Israel has been slandered in the media, it has been an unrelenting information operation to delegitimize the Jewish state for two years and running. I mean, we're talking about lawfare and cyber stuff and cognitive warfare. I mean, the campus activity, the Palestine recognition, the Hollywood boycott, all of this, right? The assault on our cognition as it relates to the Palestinian Israeli conflict has been unbelievable. And I do think that at some point, we're gonna need to go back and unpack this and see where it started and who, the epicenters, where they were, how the information began to spin out of what countries and what accounts. But I will just end with this one note. The people that have stood by Israel, I think, have shown immense fortitude, but nobody has demonstrated that fortitude more than the person who I think is possibly the most controversial figure in modern Israeli history, and that's Benjamin Netanyahu. This guy was under assault from the beginning from his own people, from the international community, from the left, from the Arab world. I mean, it was a withering assault. He stood up at the UN the other day defiantly, and he basically just said, I am not caving to any of you.
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E
And now we see that the script.
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D
Has flipped and we are on the.
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E
Cusp, possibly, of a win for Israel. And I got to say, it's a remarkable story.
- [40:53]
A
I mean, by the way, going to that politically, just for. Just to make. I have no developed argument to make here in response to that. But, you know, there's. If this happens, if a deal is made, if the hostages are brought home, and if the Trump plan in some form starts to be implemented, what the Israeli people, or what the Israeli public, including mostly the people who dislike him, are going to get is what they seem to have wanted, which is that Bibi will end up calling elections. He'll be at a strong. He'll be able to make the argument that I was challenged, as few leaders in history have ever been challenged. And I led us through the darkness, through the mire, and under my leadership or under my stewardship, we did what we did in Lebanon, we did what we did in Iran. I managed to. To keep America from spinning out against us during the Biden term, while every pressure inside the Biden administration was toward turning against Israel. And I have made this alliance with Trump and with the Trump administration that has borne this fruit. And we'll see what happens inside Israel where you know this. There is. If you think that Trump derangement syndrome is a thing, you ain't seen nothing like Bibi derangement syndrome in Israel. There is a. There is a population in Israel whose hatred of Bibi has a kind of. I can't even quite describe. Somebody I was with, is not an Israeli, but isn't a sort of American liberal, American Jew who's worked with leaders of the Israeli Liberal left for 30 years. You know, who said to me on Saturday night at some event, what I would like to do is take Bibi's fit hand and cut off each of his fingers one by one until, until, you know, he can. He has no fingers. And I said, well, thankfully, your wish will not come to pass. What it was, whatever it was that he did to make you speak those words to me is, is. Is an indication of a level of psychosis that I don't quite know how to factor in.
- [43:51]
C
Okay. But that psychosis is exactly what I think Jonathan is correct to point out. And this is a generational cultural and information war challenge for the next generation, by the way. It doesn't matter. He's probably still getting a lot of his information the way everybody is. And there was a really, I was thinking about the Manchester synagogue attack and Alistair Heath, who's the editor of the Sunday Telegraph in the uk, went on kind of, sort of has a newsletter and he really, in a scathing, scathing note in his newsletter over the weekend, lays out why he thinks that cultural battle is so important for what happened in the uk. And he points out this is really important because I think in the United States we tend to polarize more quickly. He points out, look, the people who are doing this aren't just imported jihadis named jihad, that the guy who did this was a citizen, but also it's upper middle class white people who've become radicalized because of what they consume online, how they get their information, what they want to believe. And that battle, I think we talked about it a lot in the immediate aftermath of October 7th because of the amount of propaganda, pro Palestinian propaganda on Tik Tok and elsewhere. But this is really a lot. This is a generational war and it's a war for the minds and hearts of Gen Z in particular.
- [45:05]
D
And those, the mind thing, I mean, the cognitive battle that's gone on here, let me just say we all, we all saw it. Israel essentially wins the war, the 12 day war in Iran, right? It's this unbelievable achievement. And within days, the famine story begins. And even as Israel continues to put more and more food into the Gaza Strip, more aid, more assistance with the help of the Emiratis, the Jordanians, and everybody is trying to help, the story gets worse. Over the course of two to three months, the beating that Israel takes is just unrelenting. It's just brutal. And it keeps going and going and there's no way for Israel to get out of it. Then comes the campaign to recognize a Palestinian state coupled with the, you know, the Hollywood boycott, right? I mean, you can begin to see that it's just seething anger and it's boiling over and boiling over. Then comes this meeting at the White House last Monday and all the headlines stop. It's been quiet. And I gotta say, if that doesn't look like an information operation to all of us, I don't know what does.
- [46:18]
E
I'm Oliver Darcy.
- [46:19]
D
And I'm John Passantino.
- [46:20]
E
We have spent years covering the inner workings of the news media, tech, politics, Hollywood and power. Now through our nightly newsletter status.
- [46:29]
A
And we're bringing that same reporting and sharp analysis to a new podcast, Power Lines.
- [46:35]
E
Every Friday, we're breaking down the biggest stories shaping the industry, explaining why they matter and saying the things most people are thinking but too timid to say out loud.
- [46:43]
D
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- [46:46]
A
That isn't afraid to call it like it is. We also pull back the curtain via.
- [46:49]
D
Our exclusive reporting to take you behind the scenes.
- [46:53]
E
My understanding having reported this is that the Pentagon protested to CNN and tried to effectively exile the CNN producer. And when the moment calls for it, we've got some hot takes. I just think Brad Pitt, honestly, he kind of seems a little washed up.
- [47:09]
A
Oh, my God. That's Power Lines presented by Status.
- [47:14]
D
Follow Power lines and listen on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music or your favorite podcast, foreign.
- [47:24]
F
I want to let you know that two Way Tonight, the destination for the best political news and analysis anywhere is now available as an audio podcast. Each weekday I'll be joined by special guests from the worlds of news, politics and the media, along with members of the two way community for conversations like no other. It's the best way to stay informed at the end of your day or first thing in the morning. Every weekday. It's a show like no other because we include involve the community. We hear from people from around the country, around the world. They're part of a conversation. There is no other platform like this. And I hope you will find it to be not only different than everything else, but more meaningful as you become part of a special community around the program. So listen and follow two Way tonight with Mark Alperin on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or any other major streaming platform.
- [48:11]
A
Right. But I think in response to that, I'm going to give myself credit here for a second, though I could be wrong. So I'm giving myself credit and you can make fun of me in three months when this turns out not to be true. But since the beginning of this war, my response to the idea of how is it that we're going to deal with. I'm sorry, there are sirens outside the window here. How, how is it that we are going to deal with the, the new hostility, the generational change stuff that's going on with the Democratic Party? How are supporters of Israel, Zionists in the West? How are we going to deal with this? And the only answer that I come up with was Israel has to win this war and then the only way out is through. Losing it makes it worse. That's, that's blood in the water. That's chum for the sharks. The only way out is through. And I think what you just said about the weird change in the atmosphere with Trump saying, okay, here we go. Here's how we bring this war to an end. And I'm, you know, and I've got the Gutteris and the Egyptians and the Turks on board with a plan that says give Israel what it wants and allow Israel to control much of Gaza for the foreseeable future while withdrawing tactically to certain points and then maintaining a buffer zone in perpetuity. And they're all agreeing that's Israel not giving up. That's what happened when Israel hit Doha and then moved into Gaza City. Those were the two things that happened in September. And here we are at the, here we were at the very end of September, beginning of October, and the entire temperature and things have changed. So how, how does this change get affected? Let the moving finger of social media, you know, ADHD opinion, move on from this. There isn't.
- [50:16]
C
But sorry to interrupt. The one danger there is that the people we elect in this country follow wherever that finger is on social media. Too many of them, I mean, we criticize them when they do, but they are guided by what they see see on those platforms and how that trickles down into mainstream.
- [50:33]
A
I'm aware. But if the war is not going on, and that's why it is actually, look, I was just going to say there are People in Israel, and there are people that we admire who are distressed by this deal and by this arrangement. Jonathan's colleague, Jonathan Conricus, Jonathan Conricas, who people may remember was the military spokesman for Israel at the very outset of the war, but is now at now at fdd, has a piece in the Jerusalem Post this morning in which he says Israel's military aims and goals in this war, including at the very end, have been and are being impeded by the fact that hostages were taken and that without the hostages having been taken, you know, everything could have been settled much more quickly. Israel couldn't fight where it needed to fight because of the safety of the hostages. And of course, that was a bargaining chip and it created psychological conditions inside Israel about how to fight and all of that. And that Israel's policies need to change now about hostages and hostage taking and how. And how Israel needs to respond and announce a new doctrine so that countries that might be tempted, or forces that might be tempted to support those who might try to do hostage taking in the future as a means of geopolitical strategy, are made aware that Israel will not respect boundary, will not respect international, will do what it has to do to take out anybody who is supporting anybody who takes hostages. But the point here, it's a remarkable piece and everybody should read it, is that there are still people in Israel who are looking at this deal as though it will probably end in what they will deem to have been a failure.
- [52:27]
D
And let me just say you're. I mean, you're. You've got your finger on. On a crucial piece of all of this. You know, this. This was like. You could trace all this back to Gilad Shalit, right? This is the Israeli soldier that was captured in 2011, and then they ended up trading a thousand, you know, Palestinian hardened criminals and terrorists in exchange for his release, and included Yahya Sinwar, the man who ultimately hatched the plot for 10 7. And you can see how this is just going to be this vicious cycle, Israel, I mean, and I've said it on this, on this podcast multiple times, Israel's war aims were at odds with one another as a result of this policy. You can't say that you want to destroy Hamas on the one side while also getting the hostages released on the other. When you're negotiating with Hamas in order to get the hostages released, you're effectively giving concessions to Hamas in order to achieve one of your war aims and undermining the other. It's been an insane arrangement, I think. Jonathan Konricus is absolutely right. There needs to be a revision of the policy. But I got to say, in addition to that, I think that the hostage families, as much as I absolutely felt empathy for them, they had way too much power during this two year saga.
- [53:46]
E
They still do.
- [53:50]
D
They were able to sway things politically in Israel, where they should have been part of the conversation, but they should.
- [53:56]
E
Not have been the drivers of this conversation.
- [53:59]
D
In the United States, when we have.
- [54:01]
E
Hostages that are taken, we actually scrubbed the Internet of all photos, all mention of them, so that they don't seem valuable to the terrorists that have taken them. And in Israel, they did the exact opposite, which gave Hamas way too much leverage for the last two years. It was really, it was a shame to see it.
- [54:26]
A
I mean, look, this is an impossible. The one thing that bound the Jewish community together worldwide. Hate Bibi, love bb, support the government, dislike the government, want war. You know, believe the war is. Just believe that you should end the war, whatever was, we need the hostages back, that we need the hostages home. And so it's very hard to deny when you are a tiny minority on the globe that feels like everybody is coming at you not to grasp and hold tight on the one thing that everybody seems to agree on. Right, which is that, yes, except that.
- [55:08]
B
There was wild disagreement down the middle about getting them back. You know, it was the one faction wanted to stop the fighting in order to do so, and the other.
- [55:21]
A
I think that gets to Jonathan's point about Netanyahu, who's a very complicated figure. And, you know, Jonathan's gotta go, so I don't want to keep him here. He's got other things to do. But Bibi, the point is Bibi is a much more cautious person than anybody gives him credit for being. He is a much less ideologically driven person and he is a very prudent person. And what he knew was he had to say that we were getting the hostages back. He could never say, we're not getting the hostages back, and that our main, one of our two main purposes is to get the hostages back. And yet almost any other leader under these circumstances would have ended up, as did many of the people around him, including most of the military leaders in Israel, say that needs to be priority number one. And winning the war or the fate of the war is priority number two. And he never went that path. And it was very, very, very difficult for him. And people said he was heartless and he wouldn't meet with the hostage families and he was a monster. And he was only keeping the war going. For his own domestic interests. And these were slanders because they were also slanders because people were using the hostage families tactically as a weapon to beat him up with. And the stolidity with which, faced with the hostility of the Biden administration, the creeping hostility of the Democratic Party, his own domestic internal opposition, and opposition from his own right flank that he wasn't fighting hard enough, he just lumbered on and lumbered on and had stopped fighting and started fighting and did what he could not to alienate his own right flank and the American left flank and as I say, still had to just keep moving toward this aim. And then. And every. And then every six or seven, every month, every couple of months, there would be some move that was absolutely startling, like the beepers, like what happened in Syria, like the first foray against. And with Iran in October of 2024. And then, of course, the strike on. On. On the leaders in Tehran and then the strike on Tehran and all of that, all of which was coming in the course of the stolidity with which he was not allowing this war to end on terms favorable to Hamas. And by the way, that still may be the case. This whole thing may fall apart, in which case he is going to move forward with stolidity and with everybody saying it's his fault because he didn't give in and he didn't give them what they wanted and all of that. And like, for. He had a great hand and an impossible hand dealt with to him at the same time. And I don't know. I mean, that's just the fact of it. When every military leader is like, meeting with the hostage families, sobbing with the hostage families coming out of these meetings and saying, okay, we have to prioritize the hostages. And you're like, wait, you're the heads of the Israeli military. Like, job one is you're supposed to tell the prime minister how to win the war, you know, like, stop it.
- [58:40]
D
Turns out the prime minister is one of the only people talking about how to win the war. Yeah, the other guy, by the way. And this is just something to keep an eye on if the war doesn't end. Dermer's on his way out. Ron Dermer, the former ambassador, now Minister of Strategic affairs, the right hand for Bibi. He's the one that's in Egypt right now leading the negotiations.
- [59:00]
A
He was supposed to have ended his tenure on Friday. Like, he was done. He's with the coming of Shabbat this Friday because, like, he can't. He's got kids.
- [59:11]
D
He's been an ace in the hole. He's been an ace in the hole for Bibi. I think he's helped keep Bibi focused on winning and it'll be a shame to see him go. I think he should go down in history as one of the people that kept Israel in the fight. But Bibi, I think, you know, I think we've all said it now, complicated figure in Israel, but undeniably the pivotal figure that brought us to this moment where a victory on the right terms for Israel was even possible. And it was because he refused to stand down. And, you know, I hope history gives him credit for it, despite all the complexities, because I do think that just soldiering on was exactly what was needed. And I think we sometimes forget that when it comes to warfare. Everybody sort of thinks like, oh, well, as soon as you see any sign of, you know, I don't know, war crimes that are being reported on Twitter, well, you know, that's the moment everybody needs to stop fighting. Well, I think we've, we've seen otherwise. Doesn't mean that, by the way, that there aren't tough battles ahead for Israel. Once the journalists come in and they see what Gaza looks like, there'll be future battles ahead for Israel. That's unfortunately Israel's fate in the region. Right? There's no permanent victories, only permanent battles. That's what my colleague Cliff May always says. It's 100% right. The Houthis are still there, Iran still.
- [60:29]
E
Thinking about nukes, you know, new enemies.
- [60:31]
D
Coming out of the woodwork.
- [60:32]
E
But I mean, really, hats off to.
- [60:35]
D
Bibi for weathering this in a way that really feels historic right now. Let's just hope that we see an end of the war.
- [60:42]
A
Jonathan, it's a pleasure always to have you and your sharp wisdom and incredible base of knowledge. And please go read Jonathan's piece atop the commentary.org website and more to come with you. This is tonight is the first night of Sukkot, the festival of booths, as we say. As here in America it is celebrated as a two day holiday, but in Israel it's actually celebrated as a one day holiday. So we will be following the Israeli podcasting schedule, which is to say that we will not be podcasting tomorrow, but we will have a podcast on Wednesday. And so you will have to deal with this, this one as, as, as the, for two days for if you, if you don't, if you don't celebrate, celebrate Sukkot. Anybody got a recommendation? No, not really.
- [61:47]
C
Book. I haven't decided if it's recommendable.
- [61:50]
A
Okay.
- [61:50]
C
Check back with me later.
- [61:52]
A
Anything else we need to. I just, by the way, I said this on Twitter this morning and I'm going to say it now. I'm so proud of Commentary. Roasty, my old friend Barry Weiss, whose Free Press has been acquired by Paramount, will now be part of this major corporation. She is now going to be editor in chief of CBS News. And what's really important about this, about in all ways and factors, is that it is a sign that on, on occasion, bravery and risk pay and can be rewarded over time. She had the dream job of her life as a, as a serious personality and editor at the New York Times. She chose to resign in outrage over the treatment of the op ed that she helped commission from Tom Cotton about deploying the National Guard during Black Lives Matter and wrote that extraordinary letter of resignation that launched this new career that has now led to this place. And so for everybody who is faces difficulties like this in the workplace, particularly in relation to leftist onslaughts and wars against your ideas and all of that, maybe Barry can be an example to people that if you stick to your guns and show the flag and refuse to, you know, join the jackals or be led by the jackals or be cowed by the jackals, that very good things can come from acting on principle, which is what she did.
- [63:50]
C
We can recommend actually, they've Free Press has taken down its paywall for the week. So we should recommend people who haven't checked out that site and all of the wonderful journalism and reporting and debates that go on there. I think all the content's open and free for the next week. And she has the other thing to add about her is that she's not resting on the success of the Free Press by taking this job. She's been, I was thinking she's like a super fund cleanup manager of the intellectual mainstream media world now. She's got to go in there and kind of figure out how to, how to do, how to practice her principles in an environment that's obviously going to be a bit hostile to that. So, yeah, congrats to her. It's great.
- [64:27]
A
All right. So we will, we will be back, as I said, on Wednesday. So for Christine and Abe, I'm John Potter. Horse keep the candle burning.