The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "Israel on the Cusp"
Date: October 6, 2025
Host: John Podhoretz
Guests: Abe Greenwald, Christine Rosen, Jonathan Schanzer (Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Commentary contributing editor)
Episode Overview
This episode explores whether Israel is on the verge of concluding a historic, transformative phase in its conflict with Hamas, following significant regional developments. The discussion pivots on Israel’s recent bold actions, the impacts of U.S. diplomacy, the evolving role of Middle Eastern states, and the lasting implications for both Israeli security and global perceptions of the conflict. The panel evaluates the flexibility and endurance of Israeli strategy, the shifting international landscape, the future of Gaza, and the enduring challenges of information warfare and political polarization.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Doha Strike: More Than Meets the Eye
[03:19 – 06:55]
- Jonathan Schanzer challenges the notion that Israel’s September 9th strike against Hamas leaders in Doha was a failure.
- The strike resulted in the deaths of Hamas bodyguards and the son of a senior leader, and “put blood on the carpet.”
- Regional reaction: Gulf states, particularly Qatar, realized the conflict could now reach them directly, triggering a new sense of vulnerability.
Quote:
“There was blood on the carpet after the September 9th attack...all of a sudden, I think there was this realization like, ooh, okay, this is now our problem.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [05:30]
2. Qatar’s Dilemma and Regional Power Dynamics
[06:55 – 11:20]
- Qatar faces pressure from Trump and the U.S. after Israel’s bold move: cooperate or risk further attacks.
- Doubts remain whether Qatar can or will deliver Hamas to the negotiating table.
- The region’s traditional “puppet masters” can no longer manipulate the conflict at a safe remove.
Quote:
“We’re all waiting right now to find out whether the Qataris can deliver their terrorist clients or whether this was all just part of a plan that they thought they could get away with for a very long time.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [08:26]
3. The Question of Hamas’ Longevity and Endgame
[09:24 – 13:27]
- Will Hamas drop its arms, retreat, and survive to fight another day (like the PLO exile model), or go down in a “blaze of glory”?
- The freeing of hostages and the release of Palestinian prisoners are on the table; the negotiation’s outcome could define whether Hamas reinvents itself or is truly vanquished.
Quote:
“We’re engaged in a 100-year struggle here. We gave this shot here, we’ll just go back and start the process of building up again?”
— John Podhoretz [09:44]
4. Security Guarantees and Trilateral Mechanisms
[11:20 – 13:27]
- Establishment of a trilateral U.S.-Israel-Qatar mechanism—potentially unprecedented pressure on Qatar regarding its support for Hamas and anti-Semitic media.
- The current U.S. offer of security guarantees to Qatar is seen as overly generous, but may incentivize Qatar to end support for Hamas.
Quote:
“[Now] Israel can actually air its grievances with the Qataris...and the US would agree. And then all of a sudden there’s pressure on the Qataris.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [11:46]
5. Possible Paths for Hamas
[13:27 – 16:30]
- Exile and reconstitution abroad, or a destructive last stand in Gaza.
- The regional consensus is growing: “Nobody wants this war anymore.”
- Even Iran is signaling openness to end the conflict if bloodshed in Gaza stops.
6. The ‘Flip’ in Negotiation Logic and War Aims
[16:55 – 19:54]
- John Podhoretz emphasizes a shift: Hostages are now front and center; military operations and phased withdrawals are secondary.
- Destroying Gaza’s tunnels—a crucial but now logistical task—will proceed without being an explicit condition in peace plans.
- Israel achieves a critical win by securing the return of hostages while maintaining military presence.
Quote:
“This is the flip. The flip is hostages back and then there is a plan for...phased end of the war.”
— John Podhoretz [17:01]
7. International Dynamics and a Diminishing Role of the UN
[32:33 – 36:17]
- The UN’s credibility in the conflict has been badly eroded, especially following the exposure of UNRWA’s collusion with Hamas.
- U.S. and Israeli negotiators are “cutting out the UN” entirely in current peace talks.
- Secretary of State’s recent remarks: Palestinian statehood is off the table as long as Hamas or the current PA persist.
Quote:
“Everything that is happening here, in the most important negotiation in the world, will not involve the United Nations and the Secretary of [State].”
— John Podhoretz [34:16]
8. Information Warfare and the Cognitive Battle
[38:33 – 45:05]
- Massive information operations have sought to delegitimize Israel—lawfare, cyber, activism on campuses and Hollywood.
- Social media’s fleeting attention means Israeli victory is the surest way to break the hostile narrative cycle.
- A generational “information war” is being waged, especially targeting Gen Z.
Quote:
“The assault on our cognition as it relates to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been unbelievable.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [39:14]
9. Leadership, Policy Dilemmas, and the Role of Hostage Families
[52:27 – 59:11]
- Netanyahu’s cautious, determined, and sometimes solitary pursuit of Israel’s war aims is credited as pivotal to potential victory.
- Hostage families wielded significant political influence during the conflict, for better and for worse.
- The policy contradiction of “destroying Hamas” vs. “returning hostages” is called out as unconscionable, and panelists call for a new doctrine on hostage situations.
Quote:
“It was because he [Bibi] refused to stand down. And...just soldiering on was exactly what was needed.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [59:05]
10. Looking Ahead
[60:28 – 61:47]
- “There are no permanent victories, only permanent battles.” Israel’s fate in the region demands constant vigilance and readiness for future threats.
- The episode closes with recognition of bravery and risk in journalism (Barry Weiss’s career move) and a note on Sukkot delaying the next episode.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“I think chief among them are the Qataris. They began to realize that Israel could attack them and could attack them again, and that...if they could hit Hamas, they could hit Qatari royals.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [07:11] -
“This is a generational war and it’s a war for the minds and hearts of Gen Z in particular.”
— Christine Rosen [44:58] -
“There are no permanent victories, only permanent battles.”
— Cliff May (quoted by Schanzer) [60:20] -
“Hats off to Bibi for weathering this in a way that really feels historic right now.”
— Jonathan Schanzer [60:34]
Important Timestamps
- 03:19 – Schanzer introduces his thesis on the Doha strike’s significance.
- 06:55 – Gulf states realize the regional conflict’s encroachment.
- 09:24 – Panel considers whether anyone (Qatar or otherwise) can pressure Hamas to surrender or adapt.
- 11:46 – Discussion of the new trilateral US-Israel-Qatar mechanism.
- 13:27 – Possible futures for Hamas: exile or last stand.
- 16:55 – Negotiation logic “flips”: ceasefire and hostages re-ordered.
- 32:33 – Exposing the failure and exclusion of the UN.
- 38:33–45:05 – Information operations and their effect on the war’s narrative.
- 52:27–59:11 – Bibi’s leadership legacy discussed, plus the political and moral dilemma of the hostages.
Tone and Style
The conversation is intellectually rich, assertively opinionated, and sometimes caustically humorous. The panel, deeply invested in Israel’s fate, takes a hard-nosed view of geopolitics and expresses skepticism toward international institutions and Western critics.
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode
This episode is essential for understanding why the current moment might mark a historical pivot in both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and larger Middle East dynamics. The panel deftly connects strategic military moves, regional politics, and the global information war, offering both granular analysis and sweeping historical perspective—making a compelling case for why Israel’s resilience and tactical adaptation could be rewriting not just its own fate, but also the diplomatic and security map of the region.