Podcast Title: The Commentary Magazine Podcast
Episode: Israel's Stark Choices
Release Date: February 21, 2025
Hosts: John Podhoretz, Abe Greenwald, Christine Rosen, Seth Mandel, Jonathan Schanzer
Introduction
In the February 21, 2025 episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast titled "Israel's Stark Choices," host John Podhoretz engages in a deep and multifaceted discussion with his regular panelists—Abe Greenwald, Christine Rosen, Seth Mandel—and guest Jonathan Schanzer. The episode delves into the complexities of Israel's current geopolitical dilemmas, the influence of regional players, internal political dynamics, and the interplay with US politics.
Israel's Current Crisis and Moral Reflection
The episode opens with John Podhoretz reading a poignant excerpt from Fyodor Dostoevsky's The Brothers Karamazov (00:36). This literary reference serves to frame the gravity of recent events in Israel, specifically the brutal murder of two Israeli children, Ariel and Kfir Bibas. Podhoretz draws a parallel between Ivan Karamazov's nihilistic worldview and the atrocities committed against the Bibas children, emphasizing the profound evil demonstrated by such acts (01:08).
Notable Quote:
"Dostoevsky saw it 140 years ago when he published The Brothers Karamazov. This is what evil is. This is the root vision of evil. Murdering a baby." — John Podhoretz [01:08]
Possible Paths Forward for Israel
Jonathan Schanzer outlines three potential scenarios for Israel's next steps following the release of six hostages:
-
Continuation of Hostage Swaps:
- Israel quietly ends hostilities, returning to pre-war conditions without dismantling Hamas (05:09).
-
Intensified Military Campaign Against Hamas:
- Led by Israeli leadership with support from the Trump administration, this path could result in extended conflict and further regional instability (07:00).
-
Broader Regional Conflict:
- An escalation involving attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and retaliation from Iranian-backed groups, potentially leading to a multi-front war (07:00).
Notable Quote:
"There are three paths we can walk down now... Israel crushes the remainder of Hamas... It's a window of weakness that we're looking at with the Iranians." — Jonathan Schanzer [07:00]
Influence of Regional Actors: Qatar and Saudi Arabia
Christine Rosen and Jonathan Schanzer discuss the significant role of Qatar in supporting Hamas and the broader Islamist movements. They highlight the lack of stringent boundaries set by US administrations, allowing Qatar to continue its patronage of groups like Hamas without repercussions (33:38).
Additionally, Schanzer brings attention to an unprecedented condemnation by the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia against Hamas's atrocities, signaling a potential shift in regional alliances (37:48).
Notable Quote:
"There are some really interesting initiatives right now in Congress where they're going to start looking at sovereign wealth investments in higher ed... but also, I mean, and this is a new project that FTD is launching now." — Jonathan Schanzer [37:41]
Internal Israeli Political Dynamics
Seth Mandel and John Podhoretz explore the internal pressures within Israel, particularly the influence of right-wing coalition partners and the potential for insurrection if Prime Minister Netanyahu (Bibi) does not aggressively pursue the dismantling of Hamas (05:09).
Notable Quote:
"The Netanyahu government sees itself as having no choice. If it sits out, the right wing coalition partners will stage an insurrection." — Jonathan Schanzer [07:00]
US-Israel Relations and the Trump Administration's Role
The discussion shifts to the US's role, especially the Trump administration's influence on Israel's strategic decisions. Jonathan Schanzer emphasizes that Trump's key negotiator, Steve Witkoff, holds significant sway and is closely connected with Qatari interests, which complicates the dynamics of peace or continued conflict (07:08).
Notable Quote:
"Netanyahu says, no, no, we're going to go hit Iran... but here's the risk, there is risk that we go back to the war that I think Netanyahu would not want." — Jonathan Schanzer [07:00]
Impact of Educational Investments by Qatar
Christine Rosen raises concerns about Qatar's funding of educational institutions in the US, arguing that these investments have inadvertently supported pro-Hamas sentiments on campuses. Schanzer echoes this by highlighting the lack of oversight akin to the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) for educational investments (36:16).
Notable Quote:
"We have a military base in Qatar... but they're not going to do it because it's so low cost to them." — John Podhoretz [39:42]
Saudi Arabia's Condemnation of Hamas
An important development discussed is the condemnation of Hamas by the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, marking a significant shift as Saudi Arabia historically opposed Israel but now indirectly criticizes Hamas's actions (37:48).
Notable Quote:
"The Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia issued a condemnation of Hamas yesterday... this is something." — Jonathan Schanzer [37:48]
Hostages' Plight and Israeli Public Opinion
The conversation delves into the psychological and emotional toll on Israeli society, especially concerning the ongoing hostage crisis. The hosts discuss how recent atrocities have potentially shifted public opinion against any form of ceasefire or compromise, leading to greater support for military action against Hamas (44:44).
Notable Quote:
"These hostages... they are likely being subjected to unspeakable horrors. They're doing it for sport." — Jonathan Schanzer [48:27]
Domestic US Political Dynamics and Pushback
Christine Rosen and the hosts analyze the domestic political fallout in the US, particularly the Republican pushback against the Trump administration's rhetoric and policies. They highlight instances where US officials are overstepping, threatening investigations against congress members, and the potential for internal conflicts within the Republican Party (55:30).
Notable Quote:
"They do not have independent standing to behave in whatever way that they choose... if a U.S. attorney starts threatening elected officials, that's election interference." — John Podhoretz [58:22]
Conclusion
The episode wraps up with reflections on the fragile state of Middle Eastern politics, the entrenched positions of key players like Iran and Hamas, and the precarious balance of power affecting Israel's strategic decisions. The hosts underscore the importance of understanding the deep historical and cultural factors at play while navigating the immediate crises.
Final Thoughts:
"We have to watch it, because you're going to say, I speak for Trump... He needs my vote on the budget deal... It's like a fiasco waiting to happen." — John Podhoretz [64:03]
Summary: This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the dire situation facing Israel in early 2025, exploring both external threats and internal political challenges. The discussion underscores the complexity of international alliances, the influence of regional powers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the intricate dynamics within the US political landscape that impact Israel's strategic options. With expert insights and timely commentary, the podcast paints a vivid picture of a nation at a crossroads, grappling with existential threats and the weight of moral imperatives.