The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: New Kids on the Blockade
Date: April 13, 2026
Participants: Jon Podhoretz (host), Abe Greenwald, Christine Rosen, Eliana Johnson, Seth Mandel, Eli Lake (guest)

Episode Overview

This episode analyzes the latest developments in the Iran conflict—most notably President Trump's announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing ceasefire negotiations, and U.S.–Iranian diplomatic brinkmanship. It also touches on shifting Israeli sentiment, implications for regional security (including developments with Hezbollah and Lebanon), the politics of victory and defeat in war, media coverage of the conflict, and the recent electoral upset in Hungary as a parable for claims about “rising autocracy” globally and domestically.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

• Background: Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, after Iran failed to honor a ceasefire meant to keep the strait open ([03:00–08:55]).

• Strategic Logic:

  • Iran relies heavily on exporting oil via the Strait; by blockading Iranian ports, the U.S. targets Iran’s economic lifeline. It's a “Bart in Blazing Saddles” strategy—“If my allies can’t get their oil to market, then you can’t get yours either… and that means you, China” (Eli Lake, [13:06]).
  • Trump has turned Iran’s former leverage into U.S. leverage, with CENTCOM beginning mine-clearing operations ([13:57–16:14]).

• Notable exchange:

  • Jon Podhoretz compares the situation to Bart in Blazing Saddles, holding a gun to his own head:

    “Trump is now putting the gun to everyone’s head—‘One more move and the end gets it.’” ([10:53], Jon Podhoretz)

  • Eli Lake compares Trump’s move to a scene in A Bronx Tale:

    “You want to be the madman? No, I’m the madman. Try explaining that to China, because I think he [Trump] knows something that hasn’t been made public.” ([11:45–13:06], Eli Lake)

2. Ceasefire Negotiations: Iranian Enrichment and U.S. Red Lines

• Failed talks: Despite 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan, the U.S. and Iran failed to agree. Iran insisted on its "right to enrich uranium"—something the Trump camp firmly rejects, even more than Israeli negotiators have previously done ([04:00–07:08]).
• Contrast with Obama-era JCPOA:
  • Eli Lake revisits how the U.S. under Obama-Kerry tolerated limited enrichment–but Trump’s “no enrichment” red line is now decisive.
  • U.S. has “rubble-ized” Iranian enrichment facilities, per Israeli sources ([04:00–07:08]).
• Diplomatic stuck point: If Iran insists on enrichment, there’s little prospect for a deal. The economic toll on Iran is mounting, with potential for internal unrest ([16:12–17:58]).

3. Media Coverage and Israeli Public Opinion

• Press framing: Discussion of New York Times reporting that Israelis feel despair over the war’s perceived lack of success, juxtaposed with polling suggesting Israelis actually support Trump’s strategy and are dissatisfied primarily with the idea of a ceasefire ([31:04–35:08]).
• Polling nuances: Polls show more concern about an “American concession” (the ceasefire) than a belief the war is lost ([34:13], Jon Podhoretz).
• Media narrative:
  • Abe Greenwald:

    “The recent narrative being crafted [is] that all of this is the fault of Bibi, the lone madman on a crusade who doesn’t even have the support of the Israelis…” ([44:29], Abe Greenwald)

• Seth Mandel’s critique: Media—and even Israelis—now navigate a complex sense of victory, with political leaders obliged to “put a good face” on ambiguous or classified military results ([25:10–27:33], [26:49–27:33]).

4. Military Situation: Israel, Hezbollah, and Enrichment Facilities

• IDF operations: Recent major Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon reported to have destroyed a significant portion of Hezbollah’s offensive capacity ([25:10–30:03], Bibi Netanyahu’s speech summarized).
• Innovative diplomacy: Israel and the Lebanese government now negotiating, with Hezbollah’s status in question. Eliana Johnson and Eli Lake stress the importance of these talks as a “political sea change” ([27:37–30:03]).
  • Eli Lake:

    “Iran is not part of those negotiations… Iran determining the fate of Lebanon… that’s huge… A brilliant piece of statecraft from Bibi…” ([27:37–30:03], Eli Lake)

• Nuclear status: Iran claims to have ~900kg of enriched uranium; unclear how operational this is after strikes on enrichment facilities ([42:34–44:02], Eli Lake).

5. Blockade: Implementation and Risks

• Technical/military aspects:
  • The U.S. Navy has experience in minesweeping; keeping the waterway open is “not an insurmountable military challenge” ([41:23], Eli Lake).
  • IRGC’s small boats and mines are a threat, but manageable ([40:25–42:22], Eli Lake & Christine Rosen).
• Victory conditions:
  • Discussion: Can victory be “declared” if the opponent never concedes defeat (e.g., Iran, Hezbollah)?
  • Jon Podhoretz:

    “Defeat doesn’t require someone saying uncle. It requires whoever… losing all their capability to be a threat…”
    ([49:44–53:00], Jon Podhoretz and Abe Greenwald)

  • Abe Greenwald:

    “A logical obscenity… every power that decides it will never admit defeat will always win. That’s just ridiculous.” ([53:00–53:27])

6. Political Fallout: Orban’s Defeat and U.S. "Autocracy" Parallels

• Hungarian election: Viktor Orban defeated by an opposition running on corruption. Orban’s changes to Hungary’s system reportedly backfired ([56:12–64:07]).

• Implications for U.S. Politics:

  • The group dismisses American claims that Trump is “Hitler” or part of a growing global wave of autocracy, using Orban’s electoral loss as evidence democratic institutions still work ([59:32–63:44]).

    • Christine Rosen:

      “Results still matter and corruption remains a very powerful tool that… the Democrats will be using in the midterms…” ([57:55], Christine Rosen)

    • Jon Podhoretz:

      “What they lay out is he’s Hitler, he’s Hitler, this is 1933… Even a country that’s only been a democracy for 35 years… is nonetheless capable of being kicked to the curb.” ([59:32–61:40], Jon Podhoretz)

• U.S. institutional resilience: Panel concurs that Trump “stress tested” American institutions but ultimately was constrained, and that both parties have undermined norms ([64:09–67:41], Christine Rosen, Seth Mandel, Jon Podhoretz).

7. Looking Forward: U.S. Politics & Alliance Politics

• Midterm forecast: Democratic control of the House seems likely; threat of Trump’s “autocracy” exaggerated in light of the system’s institutional checks ([61:40–64:07]).

• Party dynamics:

  • Right-wing populist/isolationist elements could be scapegoated if Republicans lose ground.
  • Eli Lake:

    “The worst elements of the isolationist, anti-Semitic right… are effectively saying vote for Democrats… You will have all of these ready-made scapegoats and I am here for it. I’ve got my popcorn.” ([69:51–70:56])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian red lines and negotiations:

  • Eli Lake:

    “…Iran’s leadership, the line on Iran is that they’ve never won a war and they’ve never lost a negotiation. Well, they ran into J.D. Vance…” ([04:00], Eli Lake)

• On U.S. strategic logic:

  • Jon Podhoretz:

    “If Iran says we're blockading anybody that we're not getting paid off by, we're saying we're blockading Iran. ... This took this to an entirely new level.” ([02:45], Jon Podhoretz)

  • Eli Lake:

    “Trump is like, if my allies can’t get their oil to market, then you can’t get yours to market. And that means you, you, China.” ([13:06], Eli Lake)

• On Israel, the U.S., and diplomatic/military victory:

  • Christine Rosen:

    “For Iran, victory is just continuing to survive. Victory for us is going to look different. ... The blockade is only going to be a temporary solution.” ([35:08], Christine Rosen)

  • Jon Podhoretz:

    “Defeat doesn’t require somebody saying uncle. It requires whoever the person is who should say uncle losing all their capability to be a threat…” ([49:44–53:00], Jon Podhoretz)

• On media framing and narrative:

  • Abe Greenwald:

    “This recent narrative... that all of this is the fault of Bibi, the lone madman on a crusade who doesn’t even have the support of the Israelis...” ([44:29], Abe Greenwald)

• On U.S. institutional stress tests:

  • Christine Rosen:

    “…he has constantly tried to sort of flex a little autocratic muscle and in most cases has been pushed back, showing that our institutions are strong, but that itself... can nevertheless degrade a country’s sort of moral bearings...” ([64:09], Christine Rosen)

  • Jon Podhoretz:

    “Obama said, ‘I have a pen and a phone and I’m not going to expect that the things I want are going to get through... I’m just going to do them on my own…’ This began a kind of period of antinomianism that Trump was the perfect person in his own emotional makeup to try to take advantage of.” ([67:41], Jon Podhoretz)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Trump’s Blockade Strategy & Regional Oil Economics: [03:00 – 13:57]
• Iran Nuclear Negotiations & U.S. Red Lines: [04:00 – 07:08]
• Israeli and Lebanese Military/Military-Diplomatic Updates: [22:59 – 30:03]
• New York Times and Israeli Public Opinion Analysis: [31:04 – 35:08]
• How to Define "Victory" over Iran & Intractable Foes: [49:44 – 53:27]
• Hungary Election, Autocracy, and Parallels for the U.S.: [56:12 – 64:09]
• U.S. Institutional Resilience and Party Politics Moving Forward: [64:09 – End]

Closing Thoughts

The episode paints a picture of flux—militarily, diplomatically, and politically. The panel doubts mainstream narratives (media or progressive) about Israeli pessimism, American decline, or authoritarian inevitability. They argue that blockade and hardline measures against Iran are strategic, not reckless, and that U.S. and Israeli aims are aligning for now. But what victory looks like remains murky, both on the battlefield and in the tangled realms of politics and public opinion.

End of Summary.