The Anti-War Crowd Takes a Hit

Summary

The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "The Anti-War Crowd Takes a Hit" Release Date: June 19, 2025

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Overview

In this episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast, hosts Jon Podhoretz and Noah Rothman delve into the escalating tensions between the United States, Iran, and Israel. The discussion navigates through the complexities of the potential military actions against Iran’s nuclear program, the internal divisions within the MAGA movement, and the broader implications for global politics and Jewish communities. The episode also touches upon contemporary Jewish holidays, drawing parallels between historical and current events.

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Key Sections

1. Introduction to the July-August Issue
2. Current U.S.-Iran-Israel Dynamics
3. Internal Divisions within the MAGA Base
4. Role of Influencers and Media Narratives
5. Intelligence Assessments and Policy Decisions
6. Advertising Breaks
7. Jewish Perspectives and Cultural Reflections

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1. Introduction to the July-August Issue

Jon Podhoretz begins by outlining the theme of Commentary Magazine’s July-August issue, focusing on the "war against the war" against Jews. Topics include:

• Anti-Semitism and Global Hostilities: Analysis of Iranian, Houthi, and Gaza-based missile threats since hostages were taken.
• Legal and Congressional Actions: Danielle Pletka of AEI provides a status report on legal measures against anti-Semitism.
• Global South’s Perspective: Stephen Pollard discusses the Global South’s stance on the war on Israel.
• Critique of Trump’s Relationship with Jewish Communities: Tal Fort Gang addresses misconceptions about Trump’s friendliness towards Jews.
• Editorials and Rants: Exploration of Israel and Iran’s historical roles and a passionate rant celebrating Jewish resilience.

Notable Quote:

“Hope for the best, expect the worst.” – Jon Podhoretz [00:04]

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2. Current U.S.-Iran-Israel Dynamics

Noah Rothman initiates a detailed discussion on the three potential scenarios unfolding in the U.S. and Iran relationship:

1. U.S. Military Strike: Targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities as a decisive move against their nuclear ambitions.
2. Israeli Military Action: Israel acting independently to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
3. Iranian Surrender: Iran agreeing to unconditional surrender, leading to the dismantling of their nuclear program.

Notable Quotes:

“Trump made it very clear yesterday… he isn't negotiating.” – Jon Podhoretz [05:37]
“We have the capability to do this.” – Jon Podhoretz [07:24]

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3. Internal Divisions within the MAGA Base

The conversation shifts to the internal rifts within the MAGA movement, particularly regarding intervention in Iran:

• Influencers vs. Political Leaders: Discussion on how MAGA podcasters like Tucker Carlson, Dave Smith, and Candace Owens differ from elected officials like Rand Paul and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
• Trump’s Stance: Emphasis on Trump’s unwavering position to end Iran’s nuclear program, contrasting with dissenting voices within his base.

Notable Quotes:

“We have 218 Republicans in the House… only about 10 represent the true MAGA sentiment.” – Noah Rothman [20:04]
“They are the Jew haters who were always lurking in the shadows of the MAGA core.” – Abe Greenwald [13:40]

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4. Role of Influencers and Media Narratives

Jon Podhoretz and Noah Rothman critique how media portrays the divisions within the MAGA movement and the influence of anti-Semitic sentiments:

• Media’s Portrayal: Analysis of how outlets like the New York Times and Wall Street Journal depict MAGA dissenters without addressing underlying anti-Semitism.
• Influencers’ Impact: The role of conservative influencers in shaping public opinion and their collaboration with progressive anti-Semitic groups.

Notable Quotes:

“The real division is between the influencers and podcasters who oppose American intervention… Donald Trump.” – Jon Podhoretz [15:10]
“They used to tell him… I don’t care what she thinks.” – Abe Greenwald [26:12]

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5. Intelligence Assessments and Policy Decisions

A critical examination of the intelligence community’s role in assessing Iran’s nuclear threat:

• Historical Context: Comparison to the flawed intelligence assessments during the Iraq War.
• Current Intelligence Discrepancies: Highlighting conflicting intelligence reports on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
• Trump’s Trust Issues: Trump's reliance on Israeli intelligence over his own U.S. intelligence agencies.

Notable Quotes:

“The U.S. intelligence Committee does not have a very good track record.” – Noah Rothman [34:33]
“Iran is on the one yard line having March 99 yards down the field.” – Noah Rothman [34:33]

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6. Advertising Breaks

The episode includes brief advertisements for Shopify, Lean supplements, and Quince clothing. These segments are clearly marked and unrelated to the main discussion.

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7. Jewish Perspectives and Cultural Reflections

Closing the episode, the hosts reflect on the Jewish holiday of Purim and its relevance to current events:

• Historical Parallels: Drawing connections between the Book of Esther’s themes of survival and contemporary Jewish struggles against anti-Semitism.
• Cultural Significance: Emphasis on the resilience and enduring spirit of the Jewish people amidst global challenges.

Notable Quote:

“The Jews enjoyed light and gladness, happiness and honor.” – Jon Podhoretz [56:00]

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Concluding Insights

The podcast episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel, intertwined with internal political dynamics within the MAGA movement. Through insightful discussions and critical examinations of media narratives and intelligence assessments, Podhoretz and Rothman underscore the complexities of modern warfare, political allegiance, and the persistent fight against anti-Semitism. The episode effectively bridges historical Jewish experiences with present-day challenges, offering listeners a nuanced perspective on the intersecting issues of war, politics, and identity.

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Notable Quotes Summary

• Jon Podhoretz
  • "Hope for the best, expect the worst." [00:04]
  • "Trump has been clear on this issue for a decade." [13:40]
  • "We have the capability to do this." [07:24]
• Noah Rothman
  • "I think the key moment happened yesterday with this Iranian strike on an Israeli hospital." [05:37]
  • "80% of American people do not want Iran to get a bomb." [09:36]
  • "Iran is on the one yard line having March 99 yards down the field." [34:33]
• Abe Greenwald
  • "They are the Jew haters who were always lurking in the shadows of the MAGA core." [13:40]
  • "Trump is the decider over and over again." [40:17]
• Christine Rosen
  • "The cultural and political left's attempts to court men are doomed to failure." [02:54]
  • "This method of decision-making creates anxiety among the people." [31:18]

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Conclusion

The Anti-War Crowd Takes a Hit offers listeners a deep dive into the intricacies of U.S. foreign policy, internal political factions, and the ongoing battle against anti-Semitism. By weaving together current events with historical context and personal insights, the hosts provide a rich, engaging narrative that is both informative and thought-provoking for those seeking to understand the multifaceted challenges facing Jewish communities and global politics today.

Transcript

[Jon Podhoretz]

Hope for the best, expect the worst.

[Noah Rothman]

Some preach and pain Some die of.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Thirst the way of knowing which way.

[Noah Rothman]

It'S going Hope for the best, Expect the worst, hope for the best welcome to the Commentary Magazine daily podcast. Today is Thursday, June 19, 2020. I am Jon Pod Horowitz, the editor of Commentary Magazine. Commending to your attention. Our July August issue now [e-mail] the overarching theme of the issue is the war against the war against the Jews and how is the effort to counter the outbreak of anti Semitism, Jew hatred and indeed Iranian missilery and Houthi missilery and Gaza missilery. How is that faring in the 19 months since since the hostages were taken? Danielle Pletka of AEI has a follow up to her last year piece on how to take action legally in the courts and in Congress, and she is offering a status report on how that is going to Stephen Pollard, formerly of the Jewish Chronicle of London, offers a view of the war on Israel by the Global south, once called the Third World, now called the Global south, and the NGOs and associated organizations around the world like the UN that are participating in the jackalry. We have Tal Fort gang on the slander that is Trump is not a friend of the Jews, even though he looks like a friend of the Jews, but he isn't really a friend of the Jews and what it means when Jews say that somebody who is being friendly to them isn't being unfriendly to them and why that is an infamy. And I have we have an editorial on how Israel and Iran got to this point and on Israel's role in the history of world Jewry in terms of its existence, to protect and defend the continued existence and the flourishing of the Jewish people. And then I have a rant which is called we are awesome and we being the Jews. And you can take it from there. So it's a very rich issue. We have Matt Continetti, we talked about your piece yesterday about the liberal enablers of the radical left. And Christine, you have a piece in the issue. Christine Rosen, our Social Commentary columnist. Christine and your piece is?

[Christine Rosen]

Well, since I missed the lively podcast discussion a few weeks ago about masculinity, I ended up writing a little bit about the cultural and political left's attempts to court men and why that is doomed to failure and how they got themselves in this situation in the first place.

[Noah Rothman]

So there's Christine Rosen, of course, I'm doing everything now backwards. Hi Christine. And we've already heard a little bit from Matt Continetti, our Washington Commentary columnist. Hi, Matt. We haven't heard I mention you.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Yes, yes. You're a mere mention of someone in case that we've heard.

[Noah Rothman]

We've heard. To your embodiment.

[Jon Podhoretz]

My dulcet tones.

[Noah Rothman]

Yes. And of course, executive editor Abe Greenwald. Hi, Abe.

[Abe Greenwald]

Hi, John.

[Noah Rothman]

So we're in this sort of period of waiting. We're waiting. We're waiting for the big shoe to drop. I think it's pretty clear that a big shoe is going to drop. I think yesterday we kind of laid out the three possibilities which are the US Strikes for it, which is the final nail in the coffin of the Iranian nuclear program should that facility be destroyed. Israel strikes for it without the US which will be a much more complex operation. Or at the last minute, the Iranians say uncle agree to unconditional surrender, which would take the form of them agreeing to the destruction of their nuclear program, which I think we would all watch basically live on television to make sure that everything was blown up, blown up real good, as they used to say on sctv. Some one of those three is going to happen. I don't think something is going to happen. Trump made it very clear yesterday as he was putting up his flag poles and doing all that, that his patience is at an end. He's not negotiating. If the Iranians want to come to the table, they will come to the table to have terms dictated to them. And then I think the key moment happened yesterday with this Iranian strike on an Israeli hospital. Fortunately, hospital evacuated almost entirely before the missile hit the site. And basically the Israeli government saying that now the Ayatollah Khamenei, the head of state and the head of government and the head of the faith and the 17th Imam and whatever, is now a military target of Israel and will be gone after. So that's where we stand on the precipice of very large steps.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Yeah. A couple other things happened. Trump still hasn't made up his mind. As he said to reporters yesterday, Wednesday, June 18, nobody knows what's going to happen. And he then said that he likes to make this was in the afternoon. He says I wait till the last minute to make my decisions because situations change something.

[Noah Rothman]

I like to make my decision the minute before I do something, which anyone.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Who, you know, 10 years now, we know that's the case. So unclear whether he's made his mind up. We do know, according to reporting, that he has authorized the war plan, but he has not given the go order. People have said that in the past. Trump has reversed his orders to strike Iran while the planes are midair. This was, of course, after the Iranians downed a US drone in 2019. Trump was prepared to strike, and the F16s were in the air, and then Trump turned them around because he decided ultimately that a drone was not the same as an American life, and therefore he would not retaliate. Now, what the coverage of this story leaves out is that the Iranians and their militias in Syria and Iraq continued to strike at American targets after Trump reversed his order and indeed led to the deaths of American contractors. And then in January 2020, Trump destroyed Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the IRGC. And Iran's response, I think, very importantly, was minimal. There was a response. Several of our soldiers did have injuries. But at the end of the day, that was the end of the exchange at the time between the United States and Iran. Trump is an escalate to de escalate guy. And if you're an Iranian right now, if you're part of the coterie surrounding the Ayatollah Khamenei, you're going to have to think about things pretty seriously. If Trump does give the order for the United States to destroy Fordo, in Trump's mind, I think he's thinking of it as pretty surgical strike. We have the capability to do this. Israelis say they could do it, but it would be much harder and it would take longer. We take out Fordo as far as Trump is concerned. Maybe we take out a few other targets on the way, but that would be it. That would be it. And if you're the Ayatollah and the head of the IRGC and you decide to retaliate against America as a result of that, well, then you mean a longer war. You mean a more destructive war for Iran. And I think ultimately you mean the end of your regime. So that's what the Iranians have to consider right now.

[Noah Rothman]

I am fascinated by the way history rhymes. So we are 10 years not only from Trump coming down the escalator, but from the Iran deal having been struck. Not this week, but the Iran deal having been struck, and having gone through this remarkably distortive process in the American political system, where this clear treaty between the United States and Iran was not submitted to Congress as a treaty, and Democrats running the Senate flipped everything around so that when senators had to vote on this deal, they had to vote in the negative instead of in the positive. It was structured in a complicated way so that rather than saying, I affirmatively support the jcpoa, you actually had to vote. I mean, I can't quite remember how.

[Jon Podhoretz]

How it worked, but it was so confusing.

[Noah Rothman]

It was topsy turvy in 2015. And this is an important number to remember as we go into the polling right now. In 2015, 60 to 65% of the American people opposed the Iran nuclear deal. Poll after poll after poll. And Indeed I think 62 senators voted against it though, but it needed 67. That was the, that was the weird distortion of the treaty rule because in treaties you need 2/3 of the Senate to approve a treaty. In legislation, you don't need 2/3 of the Senate to approve or disapprove anything. You do need enough senators in certain cases to, to bring a vote to the floor of the Senate. That's called cloture. That's 60 votes. I don't want to get into like the weeds here, but basically the American people opposed the Iraq, the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, and Obama and the Democrats pushed it through. And so they pushed it through in opposition and defiance of even a majority of their own supporters, I believe, or at least the plurality of their supporters were opposed to the deal. Flash forward to 2025. The polling is astounding. CNN polling, other polling. 80% of American people do not want Iran to get a bomb. And something like between 70 and 80% support military action to, to ensure that Iran does not get a bomb. That is a consistent number. Now, if you think about it over 10 years, the American people have always not wanted to run to get a bomb. And now we have affirmative, the affirmative fact that America, the American people believe that we have military power precisely to do something like prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. Meanwhile, and I think this is something that is of particular interest to Abe. We're spending all this time discussing breaches and divisions on the maga, right, over, over how whether or not this should happen. We're getting involved in another forever war and Israel is drawing us into another conflict in the Middle east and all of that where polling suggests that the MAGA base, Republic, the Republicans, everybody, including, including Democrats or at least 50, are for making sure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear bomb and all that that attends. So what do you make of that, Abe? Why is this such so there, I mean, interest to you?

[Abe Greenwald]

Well, the press is treating it as a sort of interesting internecine fight in maga, which it is and it is interesting. Trump has acknowledged it, he said yesterday. Yeah, some people in the base are a little upset, he said, but many others, many people outside my Base altogether are so happy they can't believe it. But the coverage of the stories. There was one in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal about the MAGA dissenters on attacking Iran, describes those dissenters as far right podcasters, far right figures, without ever saying they are overt antisemites. They talk about Candace Owens, they talk about Tucker without mentioning that these people have on Holocaust deniers or deny the Holocaust themselves and so on. That's the story. The story is the Jew haters who were always lurking in the shadows of the MAGA core are angry.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Well, and they're joining forces with the Jew haters on the progressive left who aren't so much in the shadows even. And, you know, just in some cases, they are in the United States Congress. And I think this is an important distinction. We have to draw all of the talk of the divisions in the MAGA base. Well, the real division is between the influencers and podcasters who oppose American intervention to end the Iranian nuclear program. And Donald Trump. That's the division. Donald Trump, as he's been saying, has been absolutely clear on this issue for a decade. Yesterday he said, I've been clear on it for 15 years. Maybe I haven't gone that far back. You have to go what he said.

[Noah Rothman]

WWF Saturday Night Mayhem.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Fine, I'll take it. And we can know that the division is. Is being hyped by the media and by the influencers by looking at the United States Congress. So sure, you have this corner of MAGA podcasters. Tucker. Dave Smith, Candace Owens.

[Noah Rothman]

Comic. Comic Dave Smith.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Comic Dave Smith.

[Noah Rothman]

Comedy. By the way, my wife works in con, has worked in comedy for 30 years. Never heard of him.

[Jon Podhoretz]

You know what?

[Noah Rothman]

That's how comic he is.

[Jon Podhoretz]

I actually, this is an aside, but I want to hear how Tony Hinchcliffe views this issue. The comic who spoke at the MSG rally and who has a Netflix special, because I have a feeling he might have a different take.

[Noah Rothman]

Yeah, there is a world of actual comics. Right? You mentioned Tony Hinchcliffe. There's also. There's Nate Bergazzi. There is Matt Rife.

[Jon Podhoretz]

There is this world of younger comics. Yeah.

[Noah Rothman]

Anti woke comics. And I'm sure that they are where most anti wokeism would be in this case, which is sort of Team America World Police. Like, if they were gonna take their. If they were gonna take their military doctrine from popular culture, it wouldn't be from Joe Rogan. It would be from Team America World Police and its famous theme song, America F. Yeah.

[Jon Podhoretz]

But the truth is it's not even. Yeah, it's America F. Yeah, for sure. But it's not. It's not Team America World Police anymore. Trump doesn't believe in Team America World Police. It's Team America. Let's bomb Fordo. And that's it. That's the end of the story. And the best expression of this I heard on my hate. Listen up. This morning on npr, whatever it's called, but they quoted covering the gruesome and barbaric attack on the hospital by Iranian missiles. They talked to an Israeli who said, only Trump, only Trump can end this. And then The Israeli goes, B52, boom, boom.

[Noah Rothman]

That's it.

[Jon Podhoretz]

B52, boom, boom. That's all we need to return to the point I wanted to make though is the United States Congress. So you have Rand Paul, you have Thomas Massey, the egregious Thomas Massie, you have Marjorie Taylor Greene. Okay, maybe one or two others. That's it. That's it.

[Noah Rothman]

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[Abe Greenwald]

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[Noah Rothman]

Well, let's do a count. Right? There are 218 Republicans in the House and there are 53 Republicans in the Senate. So there's 271 Republicans. And we can name three off the top of our heads, right? And I can name 10 in the Democratic Party off the top of my head easily. And that's just, I mean, just off the top of my head. And I'm sure that is, it's probably more like they represent 10 out of 100.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Right. In other words, who better reflects the MAGA base? Donald Trump and the overwhelming majority of the Republicans in Congress? Or Christopher Murphy, Democrat from Connecticut?

[Christine Rosen]

There's a fascinating story that I would rather these reporters have told instead of just the Tucker Carlson bickering with Ted Cruz, which is actually worth watching to see the split between the influencers and the actual political leaders. Because I thought Cruz, who can be deeply annoying in many ways, he comes across as much more palatable in that exchange than Carlson. Carlson puts up snippets that make him look tough, where he makes his kind of now meme like Tucker surprise face. But what about J.D. vance? Because he's got a very interesting past to thread here. He obviously wants to claim the MAGA mantle and he is pretty isolationist and on foreign policy, he doesn't really pull his punches when describing the people he disagrees with, even in his own coalition. So it's been interesting to watch him navigate this and it'll be also interesting to see how much he's involved in the decision making that some reporting today about who is actually in the room with Trump in the last few days. And one of those people who isn't Evidently is Hegseth. So that's another sort of just. Those coalitions are constantly in motion and the reporting on it isn't necessarily reliable. But where is Vance on all this?

[Noah Rothman]

Okay, well, it's time now for some exclusive commentary magazine podcast reporting.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Wow.

[Noah Rothman]

Sirens. Sirens. I want some. You know, like this is, you know, I am garages late at night in a trench coat, sunglasses. I've heard from three different people now that Vance is fully on board with this, that Vance is admiring of the Israeli action that he characterizes Trump as somebody who decided after making a good faith effort to bring Iran to the table, to make a deal, which is what he wanted, that there was no negotiating with these people and that once that happened, there was nowhere for anyone to go but to understand that if he couldn't see his way clear to saying that Iran, we could make a deal with Iran, that there was no deal to be made with Iran. And then there's, then there's another interesting detail. This is not.

[Christine Rosen]

Can I just ask from what principle, from what principle is Vance coming to that position beyond just principle that he.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Is the vice president and Trump is the president, and in order to, to be the nominee in 2028, he needs Donald Trump's.

[Noah Rothman]

Well, there is that. There is that. And then there is also, and I think this is important. The Israeli execution of the beginning of this fight was the linchpin moment. It was. They know what they're doing. They are exposing the hollowness of the, of their enemy. And their incredible competence means that if you were going to be picking a side, you pick their side because they're showing every, they're showing every indication of winning. No, this is an important.

[Jon Podhoretz]

I'm not going to question your reporting.

[Noah Rothman]

Don't.

[Jon Podhoretz]

You know what?

[Noah Rothman]

You better not. This is outrageous.

[Jon Podhoretz]

I'm taking, I don't question shoe leather reporting. I won't.

[Noah Rothman]

I'm just saying what I have heard is that both Trump and Vance are, were dumbstruck, right, by how extraordinarily capable Israel has proved to be. Now, remember, this is an important detail. So he wasn't president during 24. So he was not present when Israel took out the Iranian. Now, he heard about it. He took out. Sure.

[Jon Podhoretz]

He watched.

[Noah Rothman]

Yeah, he watched it. He heard about it. Maybe he was briefed about it after the election, but he is watching in real time as this, as this military does things no military has ever done before and with a kind of assurance and focus that means if what you're looking for is some indication that you're not Backing a loser. He's not back at a loser. He never, he never wants to back a loser. So that, that's, that's all I'm saying. I'm not, I'm not saying there's any principle here per se.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Right. I just want to make a couple points about fans. I mean, clearly he would be opposed to American intervention in this operation. I mean, everything we know about his foreign policy really even proceeding, his change of mind about Trump suggests that he does not believe in American intervention overseas unless absolutely necessary. So he is, I think, deferring to his commander in chief, as he should. And I thought that Vance's post on X from the other day, I think Tuesday afternoon was a very articulate explanation of what was happening and what the Trump administration offered the Iranians and how the Iranians rejected it and why we had reached this impact pass. And Vance says there Trump may have to do something more to make sure the Iranians don't get a bomb. To me, that was basically Vance climbing on board the Trump policy. And that's important for the administration. That's important, I think, for Vance. And I hope that one thing Vance learns if we do strike Fordo is that, you know, there are places where only America can do the job does not mean the major land based regime change that happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. It can mean punitive strikes with targeted objectives and we do not need to pursue as a goal of this policy the collapse of the Iranian regime. So I hope, I hope that's one outcome of a still fluid situation. I'll also say that Vance clearly has time to go on Blue sky, which he did yesterday. And he started an account on this progressive social media service, really, I think, just to troll everybody there. And he did so successfully and now he's apparently been kicked out. And he also has time to get into a fight with David Reeboy who is a, I think a MAGA influencer. It's definitely a conservative influencer based in Florida. And that, that fight actually I think took place before Vance's long statement on, on the Iranian policy. So he, he's definitely spending a lot of time online and where I would hope he'd also be spending. And I'm sure he is, I'm sure he's capable to do both. Also involved in the planning and the deliberation for what is coming on Hegseth. You know, Hegseth is a lot like Kristi Noem, I think, in that he is a television communicator. That's essentially why he's There he looks apart. He does PT with the troops. He can communicate the Trump objectives. And he's not there because he has the bureaucratic savvy of Robert Gates and Donald Rumsfeld or the, you know, strategic mind of James Schlesinger and, you know, Paul Wolfowitz.

[Abe Greenwald]

Right.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Who was never SecDef, but he was deputy. That's he's there to communicate the policy. What I think is interesting is no one knows the policy yet. We know that we're supporting Israel. We, we know that we're supporting Israel and we know that we don't want Iran to get a nuke, but we don't really know what we're going to do about it. And I have noticed that. Just one second. I noticed that Hegseth has not been that visible because I think he's waiting for Trump to decide. And moreover, internally, since Hegseth is an exterior facing figure, internally, I would much rather have General Kane, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Gorilla Kurilla, the chairman of centcom, the leader of the Central Command, to do the planning. I have no problem that they're taking a lead here.

[Noah Rothman]

Right.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Because Hegseth is there to communicate. And just finally, there is one cabinet member who deserves a lot of scrutiny right now and I do believe is very much on the outs right now, and that is the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. And she is in an extremely tenuous position because you have had the President of the United States say on Air Force One to the entire world, I don't care what she thinks. I mean, when you have your boss, much less the president, say, I don't care what you think. Yeah, you may want to reconsider your employment choices.

[Christine Rosen]

Yes, well, in that. So that statement combined with the Hegseth and I agree. I mean, but Hegseth could have been put in a position where he could do that without actually having the title and cabinet level position that he has. He could have been head of recruitment. It could have been the communications person done all the same stuff. I think it does lead to a sense of the, of not really knowing who's in charge. And then you add to this that Trump going, I don't know, I make my mind up at the last minute. And I think it kind of creates anxiety in some sense among people worried about like, is this methodically being decided? I agree with you, Matt. I think the military planners are doing their thing and we he. They've been moving assets, you know, closer to the conflict, sending a signal To Iran, all those, all the things we usually do as a superpower, we're doing. It's. And I, I mean, I, I know some of this is messaging, but it does lend a sense of chaos to it, which I think Trump enjoys. But again, the American people, perhaps, maybe, when, if he does decide to strike, I would actually like him to see a pretty traditional televised message explaining the position, explaining what we're doing, and telling the American people why it's important.

[Abe Greenwald]

But, you know, at the same time, there is something uniquely transparent about all this. When Trump says, I don't care what she thinks, he means, I don't care what she thinks. And very direct. And when Trump says, I wait till the last second because things change, he means I wait a second because, I mean, there's a sort of transparency here. And it's also transparently clear that he is the guy who's gonna make the decision. I mean, that's always the case, but everyone, the counsel of everyone else has a limited impact on him, I think.

[Christine Rosen]

Well, and it wasn't the case for the previous administration. So in that sense, it's actually a healthy reassertion of presidential.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Otto Penn made the decision.

[Noah Rothman]

Well, so something interesting happened in the intelligence discussion over the last couple of days. People who are, particularly in the media, who are attempting to do whatever they can to retard the possibility the United States will take action, have become very fond of citing this thing that Tulsa Gabbard herself cited, I think, in April, which was that there had been an intelligence assessment inside the intelligence community that Iran was years away from a bomb, not months away or weeks away. I bring this up because people have been invoking it and saying, essentially hinting that the push to go at Iran because of the direct threat that it poses has weird echoes of the run up to the Iraq war, where we over, we exaggerate, overestimated whatever the threat posed by direct, directly by Iraq with these supposedly ruinous consequences. John Ratcliffe, who is the Director of the CIA and was the Director of National Intelligence in the first Trump term, went before Congress and essentially attacked Tulsa Gabbard's position and this report from the intelligence community by saying, so here's the story. Everybody agrees. If you have a football team and they march down the field and they get, they go 99 yards and they're on the one yard line and they're sitting on the one yard line, you can say, well, they're not going to actually try to go in to the end zone, but that would probably be pretty stupid. To assume they weren't going to try to go into the end zone. And Iran is on the one yard line having March 99 yards down the field, having had no nuclear program 25 years ago and now they are here and everybody acknowledges, including the iaea, that they are on the verge of being able to do nuclear breakouts. So do you stop them beforehand or do you deal with the world that exists once they cross in and the refs raise their arms and they are in the end zone having scored themselves as a nuclear power?

[Jon Podhoretz]

There's, there's so much mirror imaging in a lot of the anti intervention arguments. So the anti interventionists in this case rely heavily on that now decades old U. S intelligence assessment that Iran suspended its weapons program. But remember, these are the same people who correctly pointed out the U.S. intelligence Committee's error in saying that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction prior to the 2003 Iraq war. The US intelligence committee hate to tell you this, I'm an American, I want the best intelligence I can get. But the U.S. intelligence Committee does not have a very good track record. It got Iraqi WMD wrong, it got the fall of the Soviet Union wrong, it got plenty of other things wrong that our expert audience can understands and can chime in on. So it's entirely possible, in fact I think extremely likely that the intelligence community got this assessment wrong and has failed to update it. Leaving aside what your point is great with the analogy and that the other example of mirror imaging happened in the Tucker Ted Cruz interview that Christine mentioned Because what was the gotcha comment that Tucker released in advance of the interview in order to show that gosh, people who support Americans bombing Fordo are so completely out of it? It was that Tucker quizzed Cruz, Senator Cruz on the population of Iran and asked some other kind of random questions about Iranian history and Persian culture. And Senator Cruz did not have all of his answers at the ready. And the the response from the non interventionist camp was how can you want to intervene somewhere if you don't know anything about the country? And by the way, it's not true that Senator Cruz does not know anything about Iran. It's that he kind of, he was not expecting these types of questions. Nonetheless, that was their saying how can you intervene anywhere if you don't know anything? That's the exact opposite argument than what they were making when Douglas Murray appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast with the aforementioned comic Dave Smith. And when Douglas Murray was saying to Dave Smith, have you ever been to Gaza? Do you really know what's happening on the ground. Dave Smith and his fanboys reacted by saying, we don't need to have to go to Gaza in order to have opinion on the conflict. We don't need to know all these, you, you snooty Brit with all your arrogant facts. We don't need to know those in order to support, you know, Hamas. So which is it, guys?

[Noah Rothman]

Which is it? By the way, you know, one of the things about the councils of war here that we're talking about, whether Hegsus there or not, and this really remarkably stupid piece that was in Politico the other day that was elevating and explaining the central role being played by General Kurilla, the head of centcom, that said, boy, this administration's really weird because it's listening. It's not listening to the civilians who are in control of defense and foreign policy. It's really only listening to generals. And that's new. And I'm like, you know, people who run Politico, like, maybe hire somebody who isn't 13 years old, am I? Was I like, did I fall asleep? And, you know, 200 years, General Marshall became secretary of state. I mean, how many Petraeus, Powell, the councils of war on Iraq, on the first Gulf War and all of that Schwarzkopf, like, who do you think Bush listened to? Brent Scowcroft himself an admiral. Right. He was the national security advisor. Like, he wasn't, he wasn't at the time on active duty as an admiral. But nonetheless, whole point here is that generals have been involved in the making of policy, particularly as we approach war, as they should. And sometimes the civilians back off and they're like, okay, you know, we're going operational. So you guys are the ones who make the plans. We may be in the room, we may not be in the room. Well, president's the ultimate decision maker. I take your point, Christine, that it's weird that the secretary of defense might be a surprise.

[Christine Rosen]

I mean, ideal, ideally, you listen to the civilian advisers and to the military strategists and there are constantly battles amongst them as which is healthy for a democracy and for when you have a volunteer army. But I do think that it's Trump's role here that is unusual. And I think we can see it as a, as a response to the, certainly to the last administration, but also in some ways to the way the decision making process did occur around Iraq. And it's him just saying, I'm the decider over and over and over again. I take. Which also means he's going to have to take responsibility for it. And that's where I, I will watch very closely if anything goes wrong or anything is perceived to go wrong, how Vance and that wing of the, of the MAGA people react, because to Matt's earlier point, they're extremely flexible in their principles when it comes to holding people to account. And if anything goes wrong here or the American public turns at all on whatever this turns out to be, if there is a mission, that's what's to watch. And so I actually, I don't mind that there's a lot of bickering or that, you know, the generals are involved, but it is, it is Trump's role here that is in a way, quite unique. And I agree with Abe. I appreciate the transparency after the last four years.

[Noah Rothman]

But, you know, there is this other X factor if we're talking about making policy here and Trump being the final decision maker about what America does, which is what the president would be in any administration at any time. But there is this X factor that I don't really think has ever existed before in this way, and that is Israeli intelligence. Now, is Israeli intelligence perfect? God, no. Because the Israeli intelligence missed Hamas's underground tunnel city and completely missed the coming of October 7th, though it was being marched right in front of its eyes on these. And you didn't need to be at King Saul Boulevard in the trenches of the Israeli intelligence community to know that Hamas was playing something. You just needed to be in a watchtower looking out on Gaza to see that they were making military moves and not being listened to. So I am not here saying that the Israeli intelligence community or Israeli intelligence is perfect. Far from it. We published a huge article 2 months ago by Jonathan Foreman on the colossal intelligence failure of October 7th. However, if you want intelligence on Iran and Iran is the subject of this discussion, you turn to Israel. Israel knew how to set a bomb in a hotel room or a guest house room two months earlier to lie in wait for the arrival of Ismail Hania, the head of Hamas, and blow him up in that focused. Blow them up in that hotel room. You have this opening salvo in this war last week where they got 20 senior officials and 2015 or 20 nuclear scientists and killed them all simultaneously.

[Christine Rosen]

They know where fake hotline that was. I mean, that, that operation was incredible. If you actually get into the details of how they got them all in the same place.

[Noah Rothman]

And then, of course, all the stuff that went on over the last 15 years, the introduction of the Stuznet worm, the capture and spiriting out of Iran of the entire history and plans for the Iranian nuclear program, all of that. So if you want to know, if you need to call somebody and say, okay, what are they going to do at Fordow? What do you think the circumstances are inside the mountain? How, how hardened is it? What are you going to look at the United States, which apparently has very few active assets inside Iran? No, you're going to turn to Israel for that intelligence. And that introduces an interesting note, sort of like D Day. I mean, one of the interesting things about D Day is as, as my, my old family friend Hugh Weldon, who, who, who helped run the BBC for a long time would say is, Americans are very proud of D Day. But D Day was a British operation. I mean, D Day, all of the intelligence, the phony war, the creation of the fake army to convince the Germans that, that any invasion was going to come in a different place other than Normandy, all of that like that the D Day operation was executed by the United States, but as a matter of intelligence and planning was largely British. And here we have a circumstance, maybe the only thing that I can think of, you know, as a, as a, as a proper analogy here, that we are functioning in a world in which the intelligence being provided by our ally, which of course is focused on this as has been focused on nothing before because it is the it. That subject is the existential threat to our allies existence. Trump already clearly views as more reliable than his own intelligence community, which he doesn't trust anyway because he thinks it's the deep state that was plotting and planning against him. So that's a, that's another, that's another weird.

[Christine Rosen]

It's also been extremely savvy on the part of Israel and Netanyahu in particular and how they have handled those sorts of issues, constantly saying we're not asking for the help, we don't need it. If we cannot, if we don't get the bombs, we have other ways of doing this. We can put men on the ground. I mean, they, that actually as a PR measure is really important because it's constant reminder to Trump they're in it, they're putting themselves in a position still of power and saying, okay, I mean, obviously it'd be great to have this help, but we also have all these other things we're doing and he knows it's true because we've. All the world has seen the results of its intelligence operations, which are extraordinary.

[Noah Rothman]

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[Jon Podhoretz]

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[Noah Rothman]

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[Jon Podhoretz]

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[Abe Greenwald]

The strongest anti argument here is not intelligence based anyway. It's, it's, you know, we, we have no business over there or whatever. But the fact is Iran keeps revealing new secret nuclear plants that, that, that had been hidden before. I mean this is a sort of, by their own admission they're saying, oh yeah, we have this thing going now and then now there's this thing that you didn't know about that's coming from them.

[Jon Podhoretz]

I think the strongest argument they're making is they don't want America to go to war. It's an anti, classic anti war argument. We don't want to go to war because we don't know the potential consequences of this war. The war could last much longer. We could expand our aims to include regime change, which would mean a far longer sustained air campaign. I still don't conceive of Donald Trump putting American ground trips in Iran for any reason. But, you know, a Libya type campaign went on for several weeks. So they're against that. They, you know, implicit in a lot of their anti war arguments is the idea that America can live with an Iranian nuke. Right. That was always kind of in the background of the Obama plan was what we have a strong nuclear arsenal. Are the Iranians really going to send ICBM to Washington D.C. they know that would be the end. Of course, when you're dealing with apocalyptic religious fanatics who run Iran, you don't want to run that risk. And that's why we've always supported, at least on this podcast, ending the nuclear program by force if necessary. We certainly reached that point today. What I've been struck by is the kind of the. Well, you know what, I forgot what.

[Noah Rothman]

I was struck by. I saw that happen. That's happened to me too. But I was, I wanted to cut.

[Jon Podhoretz]

This out, cut that part out.

[Noah Rothman]

I also wanted, I wanted to mention two other aspects of the anti war argument. Yeah. One of them, well stated by somebody I respect, though I disagree with Michael, Brendan Doherty, who put a, who published a piece yesterday on the National Review Online on the arguments that are being made that don't pass the smell test with him in the sort of pro war camp. And one of them is BB Saying, you know, we're for New York could be next. How do you know that New York is not next? And he's like, New York's not going to be next. I mean, come on, like that's where you start losing me with your rhetoric. Okay, so let's just say that the people like MBD and others are right, that Iran does not pose a direct nuclear threat to the United States.

[Christine Rosen]

I just have to interrupt to say maybe not nuclear, but they are in New York. There have been multiple plots by Iranian terrorists on our soil against Americans and American interests. So sorry, not.

[Noah Rothman]

That's, that's an important point. And you know, and, but you know, after 9, 11, of course, the great fear was the dirty bomb or some kind of nuclear device. That was the Cheney 1% doctrine. Like if there's a 1% chance that an American city could be destroyed by a nuclear weapon. You have to act as though that 1% chance is 100% chance and act and act accordingly. Now you can look at Cheney and look at the Bush foreign policy and say everything was misguided and that's fine. However, let's talk about not that Iran is going to fire an ICBM and hit New York. That is not the threat that I think Bibi is talking about or that anybody rational is talking about. It is if Iran gets the bomb, we're in a new world in which people are going to be rushing around trying to get nukes. That the central argument for bombing Iran 20 years ago was this will start a rush to nuclearization among second rank and third rank countries that have not been nuclear so far because of the obvious geopolitical advantages of having this weapon. That people will bribe you like North Korea will give you money so that you promise them you won't use it. And that's where it's not that Iran hits. It's that a world in which there is wild nuclear proliferation leads inevitably, I think at some point, maybe 45 years from now.

[Jon Podhoretz]

And it also enhances Iran's freedom of action in the region, as you, Russia, Ukraine, war.

[Noah Rothman]

Right, but I'm saying directly, but I'm saying directly to us, but threat to us is nuclear proliferation. An era of nuclear proliferation at a time when technical capabilities are such that it would be possible at some point to create a suitcase nuclear bomb. And where would those bombers go?

[Jon Podhoretz]

I mean, I guess the response is, well, to what I just said is, well, we shouldn't have American interests or troops in the Middle east anyway. So if an Iranian nuke allows them to use more terror or conventional means to advance our interests and to kill people, then, well, it's not our problem. We should be out of there. But as you point out, their solution is like instead of five deadly fireworks in a box, let's increase the size of the box and let's have 70 deadly fireworks in the box through hyperproliferation. And that doesn't make America safer at all. I think you're correct. I also remembered what I wanted to say a few minutes ago. So we'll still cut out the part where I lost my train of thought.

[Noah Rothman]

We will or we won't.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Find. So just to make the point, the danger there is not a danger. It is a consequence of American involvement that hasn't been much commented on. And that is when Trump, or if Trump intervenes. This is now an American operation. I mean, as we said earlier you can track in real time on social media the flights from Europe. You can see the photos of not only how we're sending things into the region, but we're also withdrawing certain things. So there are great images of Alodid Air Force Base where there were planes on the tarmac one day, and then the next day, the planes aren't on the tarmac anymore in preparation for a potential Iranian retaliation. So we're seeing this happening, and if Trump makes a call, then all of a sudden, I mean, America, the big dog, is now involved. What that means is, yes, Fordo is probably over, right? B52, boom, boom, like my Israeli friend said. But it also means Trump decides when the war ends. And this is, this is kind of interesting. Unless Trump, Unless Trump just comes on television and says to the world, look, we're one and done. We're destroying this, and then I'm going to let Israel handle it. Then becomes a little bit more complicated. If instead he says, we're into this, we're going to make sure the Iranian nuclear program is totally defanged. Well, is there going to be a point where maybe Israel wants to keep going a little bit farther? But Trump says, well, now they're. Now the Ayatollah is coming to the table and I've done a lot of damage, so maybe, Bibi, it's time to end the campaign. I think that's an unanswered question.

[Christine Rosen]

This also is, in a way, another rebuke to Michael Brendan Doherty's argument, because his argument is very much looking at just this one country. He's not looking at all. Also about future nuclear alliances and some of right now, Iran doesn't have a lot of friends in the world coming to its aid. But that doesn't mean, as Matt says, if it's a sustained campaign, if the US Actually comes in, China, Russia, other. Other countries could then start to align with Iran. And that's another rebuke, I think, to Michael's isolationist argument about why we, we don't need to be involved. We do. We do.

[Noah Rothman]

According to Amit Seagal, whom I've mentioned before on this podcast, that's Am I T S E G A L Just if you people have been asking me, because I've cited his name and then they're like, I don't remember his name and who is. And how can I read his stuff? If you Google his name, you can subscribe to his daily He's Fantastic newsletter or listen to him on dancing or his Call Me Back podcast. He says that the argument that BB and Ron Dermer, who is BB's sort of like brain trust, have been making to Trump and in the administration is, Mr. President, you say you don't start wars, you end them. End this war. You can end this war for us. If you take out Ford, the war is over. So this is where you're. Matt, if this is what they're saying to him, then your scenario doesn't hold. They're not going to help anything. I hope that's the case, that they're not going to go any further. And that what they have done is they have looked at Trump closely. They are incredibly grateful to him. They believe he is their great friend. He. They are. You know, they were nervous, I think, about how far he was going to let Steve Witkoff go in negotiating with the Iranians, but that they had confidence that he, in fact, was on their side, and they believed him when he said he didn't want to get Iran a nuclear weapon. And they are trusting that he means what he says when he says, I don't start wars, that he didn't start this war. Israel started this war. Trump and Rubio said two hours after the war started that the United States had no role in this war, that it had not given the green light, had done nothing, that America was simply doing things to protect American interests and American personnel in the Middle East. So the message was clearly, Israel went this alone, started this war by itself. And Trump can say, and now I'm going to end it. There were two ways for me to end it. I could end it before it began with Iran agreeing to a negotiated solution to the problem. Iran made that impossible. And now unconditional surrender is the other way to end the war. And there are two ways to do that, one of which is for Iran to do what we said, which is come to the table, say we're done, we're humiliated, we will destroy everything. We will promise never to strike Israel. We will, you know, we will accept sanctions, whatever it is that unconditional surrender means or. Or their entire capability of doing anything aggressive and offensive against any other country will be destroyed for three generations to come. And that's either Israel does it or America does it. But Trump can do it. Trump can end the war. That is what Bibi and Dermer were telling Trump and Vance and Rubio and Witkoff and whoever it is that Trump is listening to. And I think it's a pretty solid argument.

[Jon Podhoretz]

I also think that Israel's done America a great favor. If Trump decides to attack for now, and that is by destroying the missile launchers, the mobile surface to surface missile launchers, which has depleted the Iranian capacity to strike targets. Now as we know from the headlines this morning, it's not total incapacitation. And as as great as Israel's missile defenses are, as great as this air campaign against the missile launchers has been, there is still the Iranian ability to strike at in this case, in fact, in every case, civilian targets. Right. However, I think the longer this has gone on with just the Israelis taking lead, fighting offensively, it's reducing the Iranians ability to hit back at American forces if Trump decides to say go.

[Noah Rothman]

Right. So as we stand here poised and waiting, I wanted to point out that not only is today Juneteenth, but as people have noted over the last couple of days, Amit Sehgal himself, also in his superb newsletter, today is on the Jewish calendar. Excuse me, on this sort of. Yeah, the Jewish calendar, I guess, is the 23rd day of the month of Sivan. And people have noted to me over the course of the last week and will note if they read my rant in the current issue that I keep invoking the idea that there is something more metaphysical going on here than merely the practical warfare that is happening. And let me take a pause here to say that I thought it was pretty striking in the Ted Cruz Tucker Carlson exchange that when Ted Cruz said, I was educated as a religious person and I was told that the Bible says that those who bless Israel shall be blessed and that those who curse Israel shall be cursed. And I basically operated that way in my public life to Tucker's squinting, scoffing, surprised expression in which he said, well, does Israel mean the government of Bibi Netanyahu? And Cruz said, yes, that is the in gathering of the Jews, a nation of Jews, right where it was when God made I mean, not right where it was, because this rule was made with Abraham before there was an Israel, but right there in the Middle east and there are the Jews. And so if anything can be said to be Israel, it's Israel. And that's what God said. So Cruz, I think, had the better of that exchange, even though the funny part is that the people who would find Tucker's squinting and scoffing and all of that supportive of their worldview are the wildly secular who think that anybody who ever invokes a religious idea is somehow a fanatic and should be banned from public life, like school prayer. He said that. And then Tucker also said to Taki, I'm very confused by You. Because all you do here. This is the 49th time that you've invoked Israel, Israel, Israel. What is your fixation? Why are you and people like you fixated on Israel? What's the matter with you? And Tucker said, I'm not fixated on Israel. And then he literally started to say, many of my close friends are. And then Cruz cut him off to say something else. He was literally going to go to the most comic anti Semitic trope of all, or most of all racist tropes, which is, I can't possibly be racist or anti Semitic. I have friends who are Jewish. I'm sure Tucker has friends who are Jewish. You know, I mean, Peter Beinert's not his friend. But, you know, there are, there are anti Semitic Jews all over the place. It doesn't matter. I agree. I was once his friend, not his friend anymore. But I mean, I, I bring this up only to say that this, this, this question of what is going on on the. In a planet in which this Jewish nation has this insane degree of military success over a country that is literally 10 times larger than a G in terms of land mass and population, and is the representative of a continuing civilization itself, thousands of years old, with a great literary tradition and a great civilization, not really something that was ever imperially controlled, all of that. So something weird is going on, in my view. Not weird, but deep. And a reader of ours named Russ Manus sent a really wonderful little essay here that I want to read. And then we'll close off. This week on the Jewish calendar marks the events that are celebrated on the Jewish holiday of Purim, which marks the victory of Jewish citizens of the ancient Persian empire over their rabidly anti Semitic enemies. The king was called Ahashvirosh and his vizier was named Haman. And Haman had succeeded in coaxing Ahashvirush to issue an edict to kill every Jewish man, woman and child in his empire. That is Israel will not exist any longer. We will wipe Israel off the map. Let's just go into the 21st century and the statements of the two first presidents of Iran in the 21st century. The string of edicts that eventually unfolds to reverse that and bring about Haman's eventual downfall and execution. That's the role of Queen Esther in pleading with the king to reverse the edict. The role of her uncle Mordecai in uncovering the plot to assassinate the king are chronicled in the Book of Esther. Striking because the name of God is not mentioned even once in the Book of Esther. But the whole point of retelling the story is to underscore the hand of God in these events. Thursday, June 19th. Today is the 23rd day of Sivan on the Jewish calendar. It is reported in the book of Esther that on that specific day, Esther and Mordecai's actions combined to reverse the king's mind. Haman was executed. The king's edict against the Jews was ordered to be publicly rescinded throughout his empire, and the Jews were empowered to assemble and defend themselves against any attacks by its enemies. The episode ends in the words of the Book of Esther. The Megillah and the city of Shushan rang with joyous cries. The Jews enjoyed light and gladness, happiness and honor. That final verse has secured a central place in Jewish liturgy for centuries. It is recited at the conclusion of the Sabbath each Saturday night in the Havdala service in the presence of a lit candle, along with a blessing thanking God who separates between light and darkness. Purim is a very interesting holiday in the Jewish calendar. It is the day in which Jews are directed to get drunk. They're supposed to celebrate and get drunk. So drunk that they can no longer remember whether they're supposed to say that Mordechai is blessed and Haman is cursed, or whether Haman is blessed and Mordecai is cursed. So blotto are they supposed to get with the celebration of this moment of salvation of the Jewish people. And that's today. Let's see what happens today. We're going to convene again tomorrow. That will be the 20th. That'll be the day after. That'll be the day after the day that was mentioned, the Megillah. We'll see. We'll see what. We'll see what today brings. So for Matt, Christine and Abe, I'm John Podoretz.

[Jon Podhoretz]

Keep the candle burnings, Sam.