The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "The 'Ceasefire' Fetish" – November 26, 2024

Hosted by John Podhoretz, this episode delves into the complexities surrounding Israel’s recent agreement to a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, critiquing the Biden administration's foreign policy stance, and exploring the implications of the incoming Trump administration's actions.

1. Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement

The episode opens with a comprehensive analysis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unexpected move to agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Podhoretz outlines the strategic defensive actions Israel has undertaken against Hezbollah, including significant military operations aimed at dismantling the group’s infrastructure and command systems. Notably:

“Hezbollah began bombarding Israel on October 8. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israel... The ceasefire deal... is a 60-day process... Israel reserves the right to strike at any moment...” (02:05)

Podhoretz explains that the ceasefire aims to push Hezbollah's assets north of the Litani River, thereby restoring safety to over 60,000 Israeli residents still in temporary shelters. Despite the high casualties Israel has suffered—140 Israelis lost—the operation is deemed successful in degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities.

2. Critique of the Biden Administration's Foreign Policy

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the Biden administration's approach to Israel and Hezbollah. Podhoretz criticizes the administration for what he perceives as a gradual drift towards anti-Israel sentiments, impacting strategic alliances and foreign policy effectiveness.

“The Biden administration has spent a year defining peace down and fetishizing the word ceasefire... It is ridiculous on its face to make a ceasefire the be-all and end-all of American foreign policy.” (17:34)

Christine Rosen echoes these sentiments, emphasizing that the administration’s push for a ceasefire inadvertently benefits Hezbollah by allowing them to regroup and rebuild after sustained Israeli bombardment.

“A ceasefire in this case gives Hezbollah for the first time a chance to catch its breath, reconstitute its leadership... This would be a huge boon to Hezbollah at a time of great desperation for it.” (20:55)

3. Outlook for Incoming Trump Administration

Transitioning to domestic politics, the conversation shifts to the impending Trump administration. Podhoretz and his colleagues speculate on how Trump’s foreign policy, particularly his aggressive stance on tariffs and negotiations, might reshape U.S. relations with neighboring countries like Mexico and Canada.

“Tariffs are horrific policy... They create trade wars and destabilize things... Trump is attempting to make policy through threat, saying do this or we're going to do X.” (54:47)

Matthew Continetti raises concerns about the practicality and economic repercussions of Trump’s proposed tariffs, noting potential long-term impacts on industries such as automotive manufacturing and agriculture.

4. Related Political Commentary

The panel discusses internal dynamics within the Trump circle, including accusations against Boris Epstein for allegedly soliciting money from individuals seeking cabinet positions. This revelation sparks debates on the integrity and future of Trump’s transition team.

“This might be the one bit of behavior, not the punching or the slap fights at Mar A Lago, but trying to make money off Trump might be the one thing that gets you ejected from Trump world.” (65:28)

Abe Greenwald adds a lighter note by highlighting the chaotic and theatrical nature of the Trump transition, comparing it to a circus and pondering the sustainability of such an environment.

5. Cultural Segment: Movie Recommendation

Breaking from political discourse, Rosen recommends the Norwegian film "A Different Man," starring Sebastian Stan. She praises its dark comedy and portrayal of characters grappling with personal transformations and disabilities.

“Sebastian Stan plays someone with a condition where his face is covered in tumors... it's a very funny and particularly good movie at not being pitying about disabilities.” (68:03)

6. Closing Remarks

As the episode wraps up, Podhoretz reflects on the emotional and personal toll of the ongoing conflict in Israel, sharing anecdotes about family members directly affected by the war. He underscores the significance of the ceasefire while maintaining skepticism about its durability and the administration's support.

“This war is four times longer than any war they've ever fought... It is an unbelievably difficult challenge for Israelis. And yes, I think a little breathing room could be a good thing.” (41:53)

The hosts conclude with acknowledgments of technical hiccups and a preview of upcoming content, encouraging listeners to stay engaged with the Commentary Magazine Podcast.

Notable Quotes:

• “Expect the worst, hope for the best.” – Christine Rosen (00:50)

• “A ceasefire is not a peace. A ceasefire is by definition a temporary moment in a larger conflict.” – John Podhoretz (17:34)

• “Hezbollah is simply the fifth brigade of the Iran Army.” – John Podhoretz (09:01)

• “Tariffs are horrific policy. They've been proven not to work as a matter of long term.” – John Podhoretz (55:02)

Conclusion

This episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast provides a critical examination of Israel's strategic maneuvers in the Lebanon conflict, juxtaposed against a backdrop of scrutinized U.S. foreign policy under the Biden administration. The discussion also navigates the uncertain waters of the Trump administration’s incoming policies, highlighting potential shifts in international relations and domestic economic strategies. Through incisive dialogue and poignant anecdotes, the panel offers listeners a nuanced perspective on current geopolitical tensions and their broader implications.