The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "The Meaning of Israel's Oct. 7 Failures"
Release Date: April 23, 2025

Introduction

Host: John Podhoretz, Editor of Commentary Magazine
Guests:

• Abe Greenwald: Executive Editor
• Seth Mandel: Senior Editor
• Jonathan Foreman: Author and foreign correspondent

Overview of the Episode

In this episode, John Podhoretz and his co-hosts engage in a profound discussion with Jonathan Foreman about his investigative report, "The Untold Story of How Israel Failed on October 7," which delves into the multifaceted failures leading up to the unexpected Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th. The conversation extends beyond the immediate events to explore historical parallels, systemic shortcomings within Israeli intelligence and military frameworks, and the broader implications for Israeli society and its future.

Jonathan Foreman’s Investigation

Timestamp: [00:47]

Jonathan Foreman, a seasoned foreign correspondent and author, presents his comprehensive report commissioned by the UK Parliamentary Committee chaired by Lord Roberts of Wythmogenshire. The aim was to meticulously document and analyze the events surrounding the October 7th attacks, focusing on intelligence, military, logistical, political, and social dimensions.

Key Points:

• Methodology:
  Foreman and his team employed a combination of newspaper reports, TV footage, oral testimonies, and extensive video evidence, including materials from Hamas.

  Quote:
  “There's never been an event, you know, a violent event that has been as filmed, you know, as comprehensively as this by far, in all of human history.” — Jonathan Foreman [01:56]

• Challenges:
  Rapid burials due to religious obligations in Jewish law limited thorough forensic investigations, obstructing the collection of crucial evidence regarding atrocities committed during the attacks.

  Quote:
  “Because people were buried very quickly... it didn't really happen and all that stuff didn't really happen.” — Jonathan Foreman [25:24]

Intelligence and Military Failures

Timestamp: [42:33]

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the intelligence failures within Israel that failed to anticipate the scale and nature of the Hamas attacks.

Key Points:

• Overreliance on Traditional Methods:
  The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) relied heavily on watchtowers and human surveillance, predominantly staffed by women, ignoring emerging threats like tunnel warfare and unconventional attack methods.

  Quote:
  “They essentially stopped having eyes inside Gaza largely because they did not know about the tunnel system... an enormous intelligence failure.” — John Podhoretz [44:23]

• Historical Parallels:
  Foreman draws comparisons to the British fall of Singapore in 1942, illustrating how underestimation and complacency led to catastrophic military defeats.

  Quote:
  “It's like people... think, oh, these people just are excitable. They don't really mean what they say. No, they mean what they say.” — Jonathan Foreman [40:16]

• Tunnel Warfare:
  Hamas's sophisticated tunnel systems, developed over years with knowledge gained from Israeli prisons, were underestimated, allowing for unprecedented infiltration and surprise attacks.

  Quote:
  “They had made all these Hamas people literate in Israeli life and then sent them back to Gaza where they could use their knowledge of Israel against Israel.” — John Podhoretz [59:32]

Systemic Issues Within Israeli Society and Military

Timestamp: [70:04]

The conversation delves into broader systemic issues, including leadership, military preparedness, and societal impacts.

Key Points:

• Leadership Failures:
  Multiple Israeli leaders over the past 15 years are implicated in the failures, from prime ministers to defense ministers, highlighting a lack of accountability and cohesive strategy.

  Quote:
  “Every chief of staff of the armed forces, dating back to 2000... every defense minister is implicated. Every foreign minister, everybody who has served in major positions in the defense of Israel over the last 15 years is guilty.” — John Podhoretz [40:07]

• Conscription and Reservist Strain:
  The citizen army model has reached its limits, with reservists facing prolonged deployments that disrupt personal lives and economic stability.

  Quote:
  “They are exhausted. When you're a reservist, they have kids, they have wives, they have jobs, they have homes... it's a morally complicated question.” — John Podhoretz [86:16]

• Cultural Complacency:
  A cultural overconfidence in technological superiority overshadowed practical military preparedness, leading to a disregard of conventional threats.

  Quote:
  “We thought the enemy was too stupid to plan something like this. But actually, they were very attuned to our weaknesses.” — Jonathan Foreman [65:18]

Human Cost and Societal Impact

Timestamp: [83:35]

The episode poignantly addresses the human toll of the conflict, sharing personal stories and emphasizing the societal strain caused by sustained military engagement.

Key Points:

• Personal Narratives:
  John Podhoretz shares a moving story about his nephew, a reservist whose life has been upended by continuous deployments, highlighting the personal sacrifices made by Israeli citizens.

  Quote:
  “His professional career was damaged and he was nearly killed four months ago... it was an extraordinarily moving tribute to him and he does not have to return.” — John Podhoretz [91:09]

• Public Sentiment:
  The Israeli population is grappling with frustration and fatigue over the prolonged conflict, with economic strains and disrupted lives adding to the burden of continuous warfare.

  Quote:
  “It’s a terrible situation... it's a terrible thing. We snatched defeat from not, maybe not from the jaws of victory, but from something for no reason.” — John Podhoretz [16:11]

Conclusion and Future Implications

Timestamp: [100:03]

The discussion concludes with reflections on the necessity for Israel to undergo a comprehensive reassessment of its military and intelligence frameworks to prevent future failures.

Key Points:

• Reorganization Needed:
  Israel must rethink its military strategies, enhance ground forces, and integrate advanced intelligence methods to better anticipate and counter unconventional threats.

  Quote:
  “It's extremely important for people to understand... this goes to everything we know about how people fight wars and win wars and lose wars.” — John Podhoretz [98:34]

• Long-Term Consequences:
  The failures of October 7th not only have immediate military and societal repercussions but also long-lasting effects on Israel's global standing and internal cohesion.

  Quote:
  “This is an object lesson in an incredibly open society having to start reckoning with what went wrong.” — John Podhoretz [98:34]

Notable Quotes

• “There’s never been an event, you know, a violent event that has been as filmed, you know, as comprehensively as this by far, in all of human history.”
  — Jonathan Foreman [01:56]

• “They essentially stopped having eyes inside Gaza largely because they did not know about the tunnel system... an enormous intelligence failure.”
  — John Podhoretz [44:23]

• “Every chief of staff of the armed forces... is guilty.”
  — John Podhoretz [40:07]

• “His professional career was damaged and he was nearly killed four months ago... it was an extraordinarily moving tribute to him and he does not have to return.”
  — John Podhoretz [91:09]

• “It's a terrible situation... it's a terrible thing. We snatched defeat from not, maybe not from the jaws of victory, but from something for no reason.”
  — John Podhoretz [16:11]

• “This is an object lesson in an incredibly open society having to start reckoning with what went wrong.”
  — John Podhoretz [98:34]

Final Remarks

John Podhoretz emphasizes the critical importance of Foreman's report in understanding the intricate failures that led to the October 7th attacks and urges listeners to engage with the full article available at Commentary.org. The episode serves as a sobering analysis of military preparedness, intelligence oversight, and the profound human costs of war.

Listen to the episode and read Jonathan Foreman’s detailed report for a comprehensive understanding of the events and their implications for Israel’s future.