The Commentary Magazine Podcast – “The Strait and Narrow”

Date: March 12, 2026
Host: John Podhoretz, Editor, Commentary Magazine
Panelists: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel, Christine Rosen, Eliana Johnson
Guest: Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Middle East expert

Overview

This episode confronts the rapidly changing strategic landscape in the Middle East after major escalations involving Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. The panel—joined by expert Jonathan Schanzer—dives into the military, political, and diplomatic implications of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran, the evolving U.S.-Israel relationship under Donald Trump, and the prospects for regime change in Iran without a prolonged U.S.-led occupation. Informed by breaking news and historical context, the discussion traces connections to great power competition with China and Russia, reflects on the American public’s war-weariness, and explores the future of American military intervention.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Hezbollah and Lebanon: Signals of Weakness and Shifting Alliances

• Desperation in Hezbollah:

  • Schanzer notes that the recent rocket attack by Hezbollah on Israel (100+ missiles) was less effective than intended, with many striking Lebanon instead of Israel. This “doesn’t work for Hezbollah” and signals desperation.
  • “Hezbollah did not think they were going to land any significant blows. They’re escalating right now. They’ve thrown their lot with the regime and are basically saying they’re going to fight to the end, which…is kind of music to the ears of the Israelis.” – Jonathan Schanzer [03:00]

• Lebanon’s Government Shows Flexibility:

  • Political voices in Lebanon are emerging that actually favor ending the Hezbollah threat, quietly suggesting cooperation with Israel.
  • “The Lebanese government seems interested in working with the Israelis... saying that it’s time to end this threat once and for all. That’s music to the ears of the Israelis.” – Schanzer [03:40]

• Conflict’s Diminishing Global Profile:

  • The Israel-Hezbollah war, once considered the most feared scenario in the region, is now “barely making headlines around the world... relegated to like 8th page news, right? Nobody cares about this.” – Schanzer [05:30]
  • This indifference is, paradoxically, giving Israel a freer hand to escalate military operations.

2. Israel-US Relationship and ‘The Iran War’

• Unprecedented Coordination:

  • Schanzer refutes speculation about US-Israeli friction, asserting that military cooperation is at an all-time high:
    “The camaraderie between the Israeli warfighters and American warfighters, the integration of the Israeli and American air forces right now... The relationship has never been stronger.” [14:30]
  • When Trump (the ‘big fella’) decides the major campaign is over, Israel will almost certainly have to adjust to a lower-intensity conflict (“mowing the lawn” ops).

• Different Domestic Perceptions

  • In Israel: Overwhelming support for finishing off Iranian existential threats and Hezbollah proxies.
  • In the US: No similar “rally round the flag” impulse, despite global economic implications from Strait of Hormuz blockages and tanker attacks. [07:25-09:02]

3. Iran’s Missile Arsenal, Internal Stability, and Regime Change

• Degrading the Iranian Military

  • Western airstrikes have “destroyed thousands and thousands of targets...no doubt that the regime is weaker and less stable as a result of this operation that’s a week and a half old.” – Schanzer [09:44]
  • Iran’s missile arsenal reportedly dropped from 3,000-4,000 to below half, possibly even a quarter. [10:18]

• Strategic Choke Points:

  • Short-range missiles and drones pose daunting challenges, especially for Gulf states lacking Israeli air defenses.
  • The Iranians are trying to spark an economic crisis as Trump’s Achilles heel, by attacking oil infrastructure and shipping (mines in the Strait of Hormuz).

• Regime Succession Drama:

  • Focus on Mojtaba Khamenei, likely successor to the Supreme Leader, depicted as more extreme, less legitimate, and deeply corrupt.
    • “It’s rich that the Islamic Revolution of 1979 was designed to bring down a corrupt dynasty. And we are now watching the emergence of a corrupt dynasty within the Islamic Republic.” – Schanzer [16:28]
  • IRGC’s dominance over religious clerics in picking leaders illustrated (“how many divisions do the clerics have?”).

• Roadmap to Regime Change Without Nation Building:

  • The US has a history of regime change without always resorting to costly, extended occupations (e.g., Panama, Philippines vs. Iraq, Libya).
  • “He’s [Trump] trying to placate that neo-isolationist faction...while also trying to achieve his aims of reshaping the Middle East. If he’s able to pull this off, it’s the new paradigm.” – Schanzer [33:00]
  • Regime change may mean shattering Iran’s instruments of repression and leaving local actors to shape the post-conflict order—no purple-ink nation-building.

4. The Role of Minorities and Internal Complexities in Iran

• Minorities as Wild Cards:

  • About half of Iran is non-Persian (Kurds, Azeris, Arabs, Uzbeks).
  • While some Kurdish factions have shown willingness to rise against Tehran, broader Persian skepticism about Balkanizing Iran limits US willingness to leverage minorities for regime change. [39:07–41:00]

• Potential for Defection:

  • Erosion of IRGC/Regime control could provoke splits within regime institutions, especially as economic patronage networks are destroyed (e.g., attacks on IRGC-linked Bank Sepah).
  • Cites historical analogies to Egypt's revolution: “We are not firing on the people...”

5. Military Objectives: Missiles & Nukes

• Can the war end without eliminating key threats?
  • Destruction of Iran’s nuclear program and vast—especially short-range—missile arsenal remains a necessary (but difficult) precondition for successful war termination.
  • “This is now a question of intelligence... being able to penetrate underground bases that are holding the drones and the missiles... Not easy stuff.” [45:56]
  • Unclear how much damage has truly been inflicted—US/Pentagon holding operational data close.

6. American Public Attitudes & Political Implications

• War Perception Split:

  • Washington Post polling: Framing the conflict as “Trump’s war” depresses public support by 10 points relative to a generic “war in Iran.”
  • “People are 10 points more likely to say, or...10 points less likely to oppose the war because when they don’t think of it as Trump’s war is a pretty striking fact.” – Podhoretz [59:06]

• Enduring Legacy of Iraq/Afghanistan:

  • War skepticism is deeply embedded in post-9/11 generations; younger Americans see little record of US military successes, shaping their “why are we doing this now?” mindset. [63:30–66:53]

7. Strategic Stakes: Beyond Israel/Iran – The Great Power Chessboard

• The Russia-China-Iran “Axis”:

  • The trio forms an active coalition working against US interests in the Middle East and Ukraine. Russian technical help is bolstering Iran’s drone capabilities; Iran is providing Russia with attack drones for Ukraine (and vice versa).
  • “What we’ve actually just done is we’ve shown how Russia, China and Iran are a unified front... what we’re watching right now is something a lot bigger than just, gosh, are we spending blood and treasure in Iran?” – Podhoretz [79:35]
  • US and allies (including Ukraine/Taiwan/Israel) are on one side of a global struggle.

• The Danger of US Withdrawal:

  • Failure in the Middle East, or ceding ground to Russia/China, will have severe global consequences.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the difference between Lebanon now and decades past:

  • “Nobody’s even watching Lebanon right now... the idea that this war between Israel and Hezbollah was going to break out. It was the scariest thing in the world. Right now it’s barely making headlines around the world.” – Schanzer [05:00]

• Explaining regime change to the war-weary:

  • “You can say... We have left you defenseless. We have left you without aggressive capacities... That’s also regime change. What it doesn’t involve is us or the Israelis then coming in and saying, ‘Here’s how you write a constitution...’” – Podhoretz [30:49]

• About Iran’s internal repression:

  • “Besij are the internal repression apparatus most closely linked to the powerful IRGC... Those checkpoints were getting bombed.” – Schanzer [35:22]

• On why many Americans can't rally behind the Iran war:

  • “The public does not think of this as a national cause... We’re so scarred by what happened a quarter of a century ago [Iraq and Afghanistan]... we’re afraid of trying to shape the world in ways that would be beneficial to the United States.” – Podhoretz [61:44]

• Looking at the bigger international picture:

  • “If we can flip the Middle East and make this an American region, this is enormously important—not just for energy, but for lots of other reasons as we head into this great power competition.” – Podhoretz [73:00]

• On the generational split in confidence in US force:

  • “You're operating from the perspective of ‘this never works.’ Why on earth are we doing this now?...From ‘83 to 2000, [the use of] the American military... was an unbroken history of victory.” – Podhoretz [64:51]

Critical Timestamps

• 01:07–05:30: Schanzer outlines the situation in Lebanon and Israel, Hezbollah’s failed attacks, and shifting Lebanese attitudes.
• 07:25–09:02: Discussion of contrasting Israeli and American perspectives on the war.
• 13:00–15:33: Israeli-US military coordination; misunderstanding about supposed rift.
• 16:28–22:50: Succession drama in Iran; the power of the IRGC vs. clerics.
• 24:53–27:45: Challenges for US strategy in the Strait of Hormuz; why the Navy has not fully intervened.
• 30:49–35:20: What “regime change without nation building” could look like.
• 39:07–41:49: Risks and backlash of arming Iranian minorities like the Kurds.
• 45:56–49:11: Can the war end without eliminating the missile & nuclear threat?
• 59:06–63:30: Polls on war support; connection to US war-weariness post-Iraq.
• 73:00–74:09: Argument for remaking the Middle East as part of US-China grand competition.
• 79:35–80:44: The global significance of Russia, China, and Iran’s alliance; the US as leader of a counter-bloc.
• 80:49–end: Closing observations on global alliances, future of the conflict, and regime change strategy.

Conclusion

This episode provides a wide-angle lens on the multiplying crises in the Middle East, arguing that present-day operations against Iran and its proxies are about far more than just Israeli security or Trump’s legacy—they are a test case in reasserting American power, rebooting the US approach to regime change, and countering the advance of rival powers on the world stage. The panel is clear-eyed about the difficulties of such a project—Americans’ skepticism, the complexity of Iranian society, the challenge of ending the war while permanently degrading Iran’s offensive capacity—but delivers a message of strategic opportunity.

For new listeners:
This episode offers a comprehensive, candid, and historically grounded account of the present Middle Eastern crisis—addressing both the military chessboard and the ideological battle for American public support, framed against the larger tapestry of great power rivalry in the 21st century.