Summary of "The Tariff Madness" – The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Release Date: February 3, 2025

Introduction

In the episode titled "The Tariff Madness," the hosts of The Commentary Magazine Podcast—John Podhoretz, Abe Greenwald, Matthew Continetti, and Christine Rosen—delve deep into the ramifications of President Trump's escalating trade war. Skipping over promotional segments, the discussion is rich with historical context, economic analysis, and political commentary, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of the current tariff strategies and their broader implications.

1. Trump's Escalating Trade War

Overview of New Tariffs

President Trump has initiated a significant escalation in the ongoing trade war, imposing:

• 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
• 10% tariffs on imports from China.

Timestamp: [02:38]

Abe Greenwald highlights the abruptness and potential chaos of these measures:

“Now we are entering into a period of tariff war. We were told that basically the laws of physics and economics and rational sense show that this is a self-defeating, disastrous, internationally destabilizing, economically destabilizing approach.”
— Abe Greenwald [02:38]

Historical Context

The hosts compare the current tariffs to those of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act of the 1930s, emphasizing the severe economic downturn such measures historically precipitated.

Timestamp: [03:00]

Matthew Continetti provides a juxtaposition of government funding sources:

“In 1901, tariffs funded about 25% of the federal government, translating to roughly $800 billion today. Trump’s approach would require tariffs to cover a fifth of today’s economy, an extraordinarily inefficient substitution.”
— Matthew Continetti [05:28]

2. Economic Implications of the Tariffs

Impact on Government Size and Economy

The discussion underscores that the federal government's size has ballooned from 7% of the economy in 1901 to 23% in 2019. Trump’s reliance on tariffs, therefore, poses a significant challenge to modern economic structures.

Timestamp: [05:24]

Abe Greenwald elaborates:

“The federal government in 1901, funded significantly by tariffs, would now require an impossible scale of tariffs to match today’s economic demands, potentially costing the economy in the trillions.”
— Abe Greenwald [05:28]

Possible Economic Downturn

The imposition of these tariffs is predicted to have inflationary and recessionary effects:

“Tariffs are substitutionary and can be both inflationary and recessionary, creating an unpredictable economic landscape.”
— Abe Greenwald [08:45]

3. Involvement of Elon Musk and Federal Agency Reforms

Private Sector Disruption of Federal Agencies

A significant portion of the episode discusses Elon Musk’s involvement in reshaping federal agencies like USAID, raising concerns about privacy and operational integrity.

Timestamp: [36:22]

John Podhoretz expresses unease:

“There's a sense in which maybe they're getting the cart before the horse with their messaging in a way.”
— John Podhoretz [48:49]

Potential Risks

Concerns are raised about data privacy and the legality of actions taken by private entities within federal structures:

“Privacy concerns... should not be a partisan issue. This has never happened before and could have dubious legality.”
— Abe Greenwald [36:43]

4. Political Dynamics and Party Implications

Republican and Democratic Overlaps

The hosts examine how the Republican Party, now a coalition supporting Trump’s agenda with limited oversight, contrasts with historical norms of party operations and governance.

Timestamp: [52:22]

Abe Greenwald critiques:

“The new Republicans are not members of Congress in the conventional sense. They see themselves as part of Trump's army, undermining the separation of powers.”
— Abe Greenwald [52:22]

Democratic Party Challenges

The episode also touches on the Democratic Party's internal struggles, leadership choices, and strategic missteps, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania.

Timestamp: [61:23]

Matthew Continetti observes:

“The Democrats are dependent on a small, affluent base and lack connection with the broader populace, making their political future precarious.”
— Matthew Continetti [61:23]

5. Future Outlook and Potential Consequences

Economic Uncertainty

The hosts express uncertainty about the long-term effects of Trump’s tariff strategies, warning of possible recessions or inflationary spirals:

“We could be in a recession from the tariffs or we could be in an inflationary spiral. We don't know.”
— Matthew Continetti [43:13]

Political Ramifications

There is speculation about the political fallout, including potential congressional pushback and the Democratic Party regaining oversight and control:

“If the tariffs result in economic distress, Republicans could face significant backlash, potentially leading to a loss of the House majority.”
— Matthew Continetti [67:25]

Historical Parallels

Drawing parallels to Ronald Reagan’s presidency, the hosts discuss how strong, transformative presidencies can lead to long-term shifts in party dynamics and national policies.

Timestamp: [68:24]

Abe Greenwald concludes:

“Trump is an incredibly consequential figure, and his policies could have profound positive or negative impacts, though the likelihood of immediate positive outcomes is low.”
— Abe Greenwald [68:24]

6. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a consensus that Trump's aggressive tariff policies represent a significant departure from established economic norms and carry substantial risks for both the American economy and its political landscape. The hosts agree that the long-term consequences are yet to be seen, with potential for both economic upheaval and significant political shifts.

“We don't know what the end of four years of this will look like. It's a highly consequential and uncertain path.”
— Matthew Continetti [69:57]

Notable Quotes

• “We're now entering into a period of tariff war... economically destabilizing approach.”
  — Abe Greenwald [02:38]

• “In 1901, tariffs funded about 25% of the federal government... Trump’s approach would require tariffs to cover a fifth of today’s economy.”
  — Matthew Continetti [05:28]

• “Tariffs are substitutionary and can be both inflationary and recessionary.”
  — Abe Greenwald [08:45]

• “There is a sense in which maybe they're getting the cart before the horse.”
  — John Podhoretz [48:49]

• “Trump is an incredibly consequential figure, and his policies could have profound positive or negative impacts.”
  — Abe Greenwald [68:24]

Conclusion

"The Tariff Madness" provides a thorough examination of President Trump's intensified tariff strategies, placing them within historical, economic, and political contexts. The hosts effectively argue that while the immediate objectives of protecting American industries are clear, the broader consequences—ranging from economic instability to shifts in political power—pose significant challenges. The episode serves as a critical resource for listeners seeking to understand the complexities and potential fallout of the current trade war.