The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: Tough or Bluff?
Date: February 18, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Jon Podhoretz is joined by Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel, Christine Rosen, and Eliana Johnson to analyze the latest in U.S.-Iran relations amid rising military deployments, the weakness of the Iranian regime, and speculation regarding President Trump’s strategic intentions. The discussion shifts to the American domestic front, focusing on the economic anxieties of voters, the GOP's messaging challenges heading into the midterms, and the symbolic importance of the upcoming 250th anniversary of the United States. The episode wraps up with local D.C.-area woes, specifically a major sewage spill affecting the Potomac River, and a reflection on how unforeseen events can sway political fortunes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The U.S.-Iran Standoff: Strategic Postures and Motives

• Massive Military Buildup: The U.S. is sending unprecedented military assets to the waters off Iran, with two aircraft carriers, dozens of tankers, and cargo ships signaling a significant escalation ([01:47]).
• Iran’s Strategic Position: Panelists express skepticism about Iran’s negotiating power, with Jon Podhoretz describing its leadership as “psychopathic 18th-century religious fanatics combined with 21st-century totalitarian techniques” ([02:39]).
• Trump’s Negotiating Style: Trump’s oscillation between bellicose rhetoric and openness to negotiation is noted as a tactic to unsettled adversaries and maintain flexibility ([05:44]).
  • Quote: “Trump over the weekend in within the same 24 hours, there was a morning where he said it would be good if the regime were toppled in Iran. It would be good for everyone. And then in the afternoon he said, looks like we're making some progress in talks.” – Abe Greenwald ([05:44])
• Prolonged Crisis for Leverage: Walter Russell Mead’s analysis is cited, arguing that Trump thrives at the center of drawn-out crises, keeping all options on the table and driving the news cycle ([06:26]).

2. Building to Conflict: Calculus and Constraints

• Preparation for Major Action?: The possibility that Trump is granting the Pentagon time for a full-scale operation rather than a quick strike is discussed ([08:17]).
• Military Asset Movement: The transfer of 150 cargo ships and 50 fighter jets points to a serious escalation, not merely symbolic saber-rattling ([10:54]).
  • Quote: “It’s like a husband telling his wife, I'll only cheat on you on the weekends. I promise it's not during the week. I mean, nobody's buying this anymore.” – Christine Rosen on Iran's negotiation offers ([11:32])
• No Ticking Clock: The hosts note there’s no hard deadline for regime change, allowing the administration to choose the time of maximum advantage ([17:32]).

3. Iran’s Historical Weakness and Regional Isolation

• Failed Proxy Strategy: Iran’s influence via proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is described as severely damaged since October 7 and subsequent U.S.-Israel military action ([25:43]).
  • Quote: “Iran's projection of power outside its borders through terrorist activity has essentially been quelled as far as we can tell.” – Jon Podhoretz ([26:50])
• Domestic Instability: Public protests continue amidst an economic and currency crisis, undermining regime stability ([31:26]).

4. Trump’s Options and the ‘Slap Bet’ Analogy

• Trump is portrayed as savoring the ability to act unpredictably (“He can just sashay back and forth...pull the punch back”), keeping Iran on edge ([23:30]).
  • Quote: “That’s what Trump is doing to Iran, that he can just sashay back and forth around here, wind up, pull the punch back. And there's something about this also that is really demonstrating Iran's weakness.” – Seth Mandel ([24:11])

5. The Iranian Regime’s Internal and External Calculations

• Misreading Trump?: The panel speculates Iran is over- or underestimating Trump’s willingness to use force, mistakenly comparing his stance to Obama’s ([34:31]).
• Regime Survival vs. Ideological Zeal: Christine Rosen argues we shouldn’t underestimate the mullahs’ revolutionary ambitions, even if their actions increasingly aim at self-preservation ([38:00]).
  • Quote: "The purpose of this regime is to go global, is to change the world stage. And look what we have done so far and Allah is going to stand by us and we will keep fighting." – Christine Rosen ([38:36])

6. U.S. Domestic Politics: Midterms, Economy, and Messaging

• GOP Messaging Woes: A recent meeting of Republican strategists revealed uncertainty about messaging. Pollster Tony Fabrizio suggested focusing on banning congressional stock trading, but the panel finds this out of step with voters' real economic concerns ([41:11]).
  • Quote: “What Trump really ought to be talking about is banning stock trading for Congress. Is that an economic issue that will resonate with people who are upset because housing prices have doubled? Maybe. I don't know. That doesn't seem to be...the main issue.” – Jon Podhoretz ([41:55])
• Economic Anxiety: Rising interest rates, high housing prices, and burdensome regulations are seen as the major domestic pain points, especially for the young and first-time homebuyers ([44:38]).
• Tariffs vs. Affordability: Trump’s own tariffs, particularly on Canadian lumber, are noted as contributing to higher building costs, undermining any “affordability” message ([48:30]).
  • Quote: “Tariffs are crosswise of an affordability agenda, period, because they make goods more expensive.” – Jon Podhoretz ([49:17])
• Patriotic Opportunity: The upcoming 250th anniversary (semiquincentennial) could be a powerful moment for the GOP to celebrate America, especially as Democrats are internally conflicted about patriotic messaging ([53:40]).
• Historical Precedent: The 1976 Bicentennial is referenced as a moment when patriotic sentiment benefited Republicans, drawing a parallel to 2026 ([53:40]).

7. Local Issues: D.C. Sewage Spill and Political Fallout

• Potomac River Crisis: A major sewage spill is creating public health and tourism issues in the D.C. region ([60:02]).
  • Quote: “The Potomac River is literally a toilet right now, or will soon be as it comes downstream.” – Christine Rosen ([61:16])
• Political Impact of Local Disasters: Panelists reflect that environmental crises—no matter how unrelated to the national leadership—often damage the party in power’s political standing, as seen with prior hurricanes and oil spills ([62:08]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s very hard to enter into the mind of psychopathic 18th-century religious fanatics combined with 21st-century totalitarian techniques.”
  – Jon Podhoretz ([02:39])

• “It’s like a husband telling his wife, I'll only cheat on you on the weekends.”
  – Christine Rosen on Iran’s uranium enrichment proposals ([11:32])

• “That’s what Trump is doing to Iran...the five slaps were infinitely more painful than ten right away because you lived in fear...That’s what Trump is doing to Iran.”
  – Seth Mandel ([24:11])

• "Iran's projection of power outside its borders through terrorist activity has essentially been quelled as far as we can tell."
  – Jon Podhoretz ([26:50])

• "The purpose of this regime is to go global, is to change the world stage. And look what we have done so far and Allah is going to stand by us and we will keep fighting."
  – Christine Rosen ([38:36])

• “Tariffs are crosswise of an affordability agenda, period, because they make goods more expensive.”
  – Jon Podhoretz ([49:17])

• “The Potomac River is literally a toilet right now, or will soon be as it comes downstream.”
  – Christine Rosen ([61:16])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:47 – U.S. naval buildup near Iran and Trump’s strategic ambiguity
• 05:44 – Trump’s signaling and contradictory public stances on Iran
• 06:26 – Walter Russell Mead’s framework: Prolonged crisis is Trump’s preferred dynamic
• 10:54 – Movement of supporting military equipment signals possible escalation
• 25:43 – Iran’s historic weakness due to diminished proxy operations
• 34:31 – How Iran might be misreading Trump’s willingness to strike
• 44:38 – Housing affordability crisis and Trump’s mixed economic message
• 53:40 – Opportunity and risks of patriotic messaging ahead of the U.S. 250th anniversary
• 60:02 – Potomac River sewage spill and its political/economic implications

Summary Takeaways

• On Iran: The U.S. military buildup and Iran’s weakened position dominate the geostrategic discussion, with Trump keeping all options open and Iran struggling to respond credibly.
• On Trump: His mercurial approach is both a source of leverage and unpredictability. The administration’s challenge is balancing projection of strength abroad with addressing core domestic economic anxieties at home.
• For the GOP: The 2026 midterms loom with unresolved messaging questions; traditional economic pain points and patriotic optimism represent both opportunity and risk. Local crises, although unrelated, can have outsized impacts on national sentiment.

For listeners seeking a nuanced, detailed examination of contemporary American power projection, the psychology of foreign adversaries, and the intersection of national symbolism and economic anxiety in domestic politics, this episode is a thorough and engaging guide.