The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "Trump, China, Trade, and Covid"

Released on April 9, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast, host and editor John Podhoretz engages in a comprehensive discussion with Executive Editor Abe Greenwald, Senior Editor Seth Mandel, and Commentary columnist Matthew Continetti. The conversation delves into the complexities of Donald Trump's trade policies, particularly the tariffs imposed on China, the ensuing trade war, and its broader implications both domestically and internationally.

1. Trump's Tariffs on China: An Unprecedented Move

John Podhoretz opens the discussion with a satirical comparison between Trump’s tariff strategy and the fraudulent schemes portrayed in the movie The Producers. He humorously refers to the tariffs as "Prisoners of Love tariffs" set at an absurd 104% (Timestamp: 02:01:58), highlighting the unprecedented nature of imposing tariffs exceeding 100%, which traditionally is considered impossible.

Matthew Continetti responds, clarifying that mathematically, tariffs can indeed exceed 100%, potentially reaching 200% or 300% (Timestamp: 03:55). However, Podhoretz maintains that the comic aspect lies in the outrageousness of such high tariffs, emphasizing Trump's penchant for pushing boundaries.

2. China's Retaliation and the Escalation of the Trade War

By the time of recording, China had retaliated by imposing 84% tariffs on American goods (Timestamp: 05:04). Continetti outlines the White House's mixed signals regarding negotiations:

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expressed openness to renegotiations.
• Peter Navarro, advocating for stringent tariffs, declared no willingness to negotiate, leading to a public spat with tech mogul Elon Musk who mockingly dubbed him "Peter Retardo" (Timestamp: 05:34).

Podhoretz reflects on the Trump administration's contradictory stance, noting the administration's reluctance to consider constitutional boundaries on tariff authority. He asserts that the unilateral imposition of tariffs bypasses Congress, challenging the Constitution’s explicit grant of tariff-levying powers to the legislative branch (Timestamp: 12:14).

Continetti further discusses Trump's declaration of an economic war on China, aiming to destabilize its economy and prevent it from circumventing existing tariffs by shifting production elsewhere. He warns of the severe economic repercussions not only for China but potentially for the global economy and the United States itself (Timestamp: 06:56).

3. Domestic Implications and Republican Party Dynamics

Continetti analyzes the internal Republican perspective, highlighting cautious dissent among prominent senators like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, who express concerns about the sustainability and strategic soundness of the tariff policies (Timestamp: 15:07). He anticipates that as economic indicators like median incomes, inflation rates, and employment numbers evolve, Republican support may wane if tariffs lead to adverse economic outcomes.

Seth Mandel adds that the enthusiasm for tariffs is bolstered by MAGA influencers on social media, who reinforce support despite potential economic drawbacks (Timestamp: 15:49). Podhoretz echoes these sentiments, expressing concerns over the Republican Party's enduring loyalty to Trump despite emerging economic challenges.

4. Historical Analogies and Long-Term Consequences

Matthew Continetti draws parallels between Trump’s trade policies and historical events such as Andrew Jackson’s war against the Second Bank of the United States (Timestamp: 30:01). He warns that populist-driven economic policies, while initially appealing to the base, may result in long-term economic instability and institutional erosion.

Podhoretz extends this analogy, comparing Trump’s approach to Reagan’s and George H.W. Bush’s tax policies, emphasizing the fragile balance within the Republican tax policy doctrines and the potential shift towards a more populist, less fiscally conservative stance (Timestamp: 36:11).

5. The Risk of Escalation to Military Conflict

The conversation shifts to the geopolitical risks associated with the escalating trade war. Continetti and Podhoretz express concern that China's retaliatory measures could push the trade conflict into a military confrontation, particularly over sensitive regions like Taiwan (Timestamp: 40:54). They reference studies suggesting that trade wars can indirectly fuel territorial ambitions, drawing historical lessons from the Japanese expansion in the 1930s.

Podhoretz emphasizes the precariousness of the current situation, where Trump’s aggressive tariffs could provoke China into destabilizing actions, potentially leading to a hot war scenario with catastrophic global economic implications (Timestamp: 43:35).

6. Public Health Policies and Conspiracies

The discussion briefly touches upon public health controversies, such as the review of fluoride in public water systems and the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. Podhoretz criticizes the undermining of established public health measures, suggesting that Trump's administration's skepticism towards scientific consensus contributes to public distrust and the rise of conspiracy theories (Timestamp: 55:10).

Continetti warns that such skepticism, combined with aggressive trade policies, reflects a broader pattern of rejecting established norms and expertise, further destabilizing both domestic and international institutions (Timestamp: 62:29).

7. Cultural Reflections and Media Analogies

In a culturally reflective segment, the hosts discuss classic satirical films like Dr. Strangelove, drawing parallels between the film’s portrayal of nuclear brinksmanship and the current geopolitical tensions (Timestamp: 69:13). Podhoretz underscores the realism in such portrayals, suggesting that the underlying tensions in the podcast mirror the satirical yet poignant warnings depicted in these films (Timestamp: 71:10).

Continetti recommends Dr. Strangelove as essential viewing for understanding the absurdity and dangers of unchecked political and military aggression, reinforcing the podcast's thematic concerns over Trump’s policies (Timestamp: 69:13).

8. Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on the potential long-term consequences of Trump’s tariff policies. Podhoretz envisions a future where he may be historically criticized for the escalation and its repercussions, akin to how historical events are later interpreted and analyzed (Timestamp: 67:07). Continetti emphasizes the importance of steadfast adherence to constitutional principles and the dangers of executive overreach without legislative oversight (Timestamp: 55:10).

The podcast concludes with a call for listeners to critically assess the evolving trade policies and their broader implications for both national integrity and global stability.

Notable Quotes

• John Podhoretz: "Donald Trump has now placed a tariff, a Prisoners of Love tariff, at 104%. It’s an assertion of executive authority unlike anything we have really ever seen." (02:01:58)

• Matthew Continetti: "Trump has begun a war against China. It's an economic war, but a war nonetheless." (06:56)

• Seth Mandel: "There's a lot of MAGA enthusiasm over tariffs building on social media." (15:49)

• Matthew Continetti: "The real test will be six months from now when the election cycle really starts heating up." (18:30)

• John Podhoretz: "The authority Trump has used to impose these tariffs from the White House is constitutionally extraordinarily slender." (12:14)

• Matthew Continetti: "Trump is more likely to go to the side that can end things and clean things up." (52:25)

Conclusion

This episode intricately dissects the intersection of Trump's trade policies with China and their multifaceted impact. Through historical analogies, internal party dynamics, and geopolitical analysis, the hosts offer a nuanced perspective on the unfolding trade war and its potential to reshape both domestic politics and international relations.

For more insightful discussions, tune into The Commentary Magazine Podcast and explore over 40 original podcasts available at Ricochet.com.