The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: Trump in Asia
Date: October 28, 2025
Host: John Podhoretz
Panel: Abe Greenwald, Christine Rosen, Matthew Karnetti, Seth Mandel

Overview

This episode explores President Trump’s high-stakes trip across Asia, focusing on trade negotiations, the political and economic repercussions of his tariff policies, and the overshadowing domestic drama triggered by inflation and his contentious approach to governing. The hosts link these unfolding events to broader trends in immigration, American conservatism’s institutional crises, and procedural breakdowns in US politics. The show is interspersed with lively banter, sports analogies, and references to current pop culture and historical precedent.

Key Discussion Points

1. Trump’s Asia Trip & the Tariff Quandary

• Japan and China Summits:
  Trump met with new Japanese Prime Minister Takechi, displaying a show of unity, but failed to resolve key tariff issues. The big moment will come with his meeting with Xi Jinping of China, where he’s expected to try to “walk back” the self-imposed trade war (03:13–05:25).
• Rare Earth Deals:
  Trump has been busy collecting rare earth mineral agreements from Malaysia, Australia, and Japan, attempting to secure American supply lines and strengthen leverage prior to the China talks (12:52–14:10).
• Tariffs and Inflation:
  The panel discusses anecdotal and real evidence of tariffs driving up prices—especially as election season heats up. John uses the example of his wife discovering pants for their son now cost nearly double online:
  “If she represents a kind of American body of opinion that starts to look at inflated prices of things... Is that the tariffs? I don’t think that’s good for Trump.” (04:33–05:25)
• Supreme Court Case:
  The Supreme Court will hear a pivotal case—scheduled for Election Day—on whether Trump’s emergency-powers tariffs are constitutional. Trump may even attend the hearing:
  "Trump has raised the possibility that he may attend the hearing at the Supreme Court because of how invested he is in the outcome." (05:34–05:57)

2. World Series as Metaphor for Trade and Immigration

• International Roster:
  Discussion about the World Series (Blue Jays vs. Dodgers) is linked to American openness and the value of high-skilled immigration, especially with Japanese players dominating the Dodgers’ roster:
  “If you want evidence of high skilled immigration being a net positive for the United States, you need only look at the Los Angeles Dodgers.” (09:21–10:10)
• Diversity of Players:
  The hosts joke about the multi-national flavors—Canadian, Dominican, Japanese—in both teams and how it underscores both trade debates and cultural globalization.

3. The Substance & Optics of Trump’s Diplomacy

• Building Alliances:
  Trump, conscious of his leverage, is shoring up R.E. deals and the US-Japan alliance to face Xi.
  "What I’m doing, Trump is thinking, I believe, is making sure that America has independent capacity on these critical minerals in the case of any conflict." (14:10–15:54)
• Panel Skepticism:
  Matt suggests Trump is overestimating his leverage:
  "China still controls 80% of rare earth supply chain... Xi obviously having learned a great deal from Trump's first term." (15:54–17:17)

4. Domestic Shadow: Tariffs, Inflation, and Political Chaos

• Shadow Over Achievements:
  Despite what the panel acknowledges as an impressive string of foreign policy “wins,” Trump’s trade war is casting domestic uncertainty, undercutting his standing even as he amasses international deals (17:17–18:57).
• Ontario Ad Blow-Up:
  Trump’s furious reaction to a pro-free-trade Canadian commercial (which used a Ronald Reagan speech) ignited a multi-day political feud with conservative institutions, with both sides weaponizing Reagan’s legacy:
  "Trump is also wrong to say...that Ronald Reagan loved tariffs, all caps, exclamation, exclamation point. That’s not true at all." (25:39–28:05)
• Reagan, Trump, and the Politics of Trade:
  Abe clarifies the context: Reagan’s trade actions—mainly against Japan—were reluctant and under congressional pressure. The episode becomes a meditation on “who owns” Reagan’s legacy (28:05–31:10).

5. Trump’s Governance Style: Process, Distraction, and Power

• Distraction as Strategy or Temperament:
  The panel debates whether Trump’s “drama-llama” tendencies (animal cunning vs. strategic ploys) are intentional efforts to keep opponents occupied or simply a reflection of his temperament (24:09–24:30, 35:53–36:46).
• The White House Ballroom & Process Aversion:
  Trump's unilateral decision to raze the East Wing in order to build a new ballroom leads to a discussion of process aversion, the limits of executive power, and the inability of Democrats to frame their opposition in compelling, non-historical terms (38:01–42:46).
• Real Estate Analogy:
  John explains Trump's developer mentality:
  "Which is get the wrecking balls going before they’re on to you...He did have some inkling that he was up to something sneaky." (38:01–39:17)

6. The State of American Conservatism

• Institutional Breakdown:
  The Reagan Foundation’s denunciation of the Canadian ad, as well as conservative institutions straining to remain relevant under Trump, prompt soul-searching about the integrity, coherence, and future of conservatism (24:30–25:39, 28:05–31:10).
• Heritage, Claremont, Others:
  John argues that attempts to reconcile Trump’s philosophy with the conservative movement have sometimes reached “disgraceful” levels of revisionism (24:30–25:39).

7. Law, Norms, and the Limits of Power

• Yuge Legal Risks:
  The conversation pivots sharply to discuss Trump's relentless legal challenges, particularly the motion to overturn his hush money conviction in New York—highlighting the “lawfare” era and what it means for American institutions (53:11–58:24).
  • John: "His overarching view is that all norms were violated in the pursuit and attempted destruction of him."(53:11–58:24)
• Courts vs. Power:
  The panel weighs the Supreme Court’s role as a final arbiter and speculates on the significance if Trump ever refuses to follow a SCOTUS order—a possible “constitutional crisis” (59:50–61:00).

8. The Future: Institutional Restraint—or Lack Thereof

• New Executive Reality:
  Anecdotes reveal Trump’s surprise at how few formal constraints exist for the presidency—a revelation fueling his boundary-pushing behavior (64:45–65:10, 65:57–66:43).
  • “He was surprised to find out that he could do whatever he wanted. That is, in a way, what puts a brake on some of his worst impulses.” (64:45–65:10)

9. Final Notes: Book Review and New York Politics

• Book Recommendation (68:07):
  Matt recommends Sheepdogs by Elliot Ackerman—a “caper” novel about postwar special operators.
• New York Political Forecast:
  John hints at the Cuomo vs. Mamdani race tightening, with a tongue-in-cheek warning not to get too optimistic:
  “I don’t want to fill you with hope, only to crush your dreams.” (71:45–73:25)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Trump’s Tariffs:
  "Tariffs are the greatest thing ever mood that he was in back in January, February, March 1st."
  — John Podhoretz (04:33)
• On Immigration & Baseball:
  “If you want evidence of high skilled immigration being a net positive for the United States, you need only look at the Los Angeles Dodgers.”
  — John Podhoretz (09:21)
• On Trump’s Strategic Thinking:
  “He’s just constantly testing the limits of executive power in all kinds of realms... and at each point, it does draw fire from his opposition.”
  — Matthew Karnetti (35:53)
• On Conservatism’s Institutional Crisis:
  “What the Reagan foundation did... to be among the most disgraceful things any conservative institution [has done].”
  — John Podhoretz (24:30)
• On Lawfare & Legal Battles:
  “His overarching view is that all norms were violated in the pursuit and attempted destruction of him.”
  — John Podhoretz (53:11)
• On Regulatory Gridlock:
  “If you follow the process, nothing will happen. You’re a sucker for exactly the reason…there are so many veto points in our system.”
  — Abe Greenwald (46:42)

Important Segment Timestamps

• 03:13 – 05:25: Introduction of Trump’s Asia trip and the tariff dilemma
• 09:21 – 10:10: Baseball and immigration as a metaphor for trade debate
• 14:10 – 15:54: Deep dive into Trump’s rare earth deals and negotiation posture with China
• 24:30 – 25:39: Institutions and the crisis of conservative identity
• 28:05 – 31:10: Context for Reagan’s trade policies and comparison with Trump
• 35:53 – 36:46: Is Trump’s drama by design or accident?
• 38:01 – 42:46: The White House ballroom, regulatory bottlenecks, and political optics
• 53:11 – 58:24: Trump’s legal campaign to reverse the NY felony conviction
• 59:50 – 61:00: Role of the Supreme Court and the specter of a constitutional crisis
• 68:07: Book recommendation: Sheepdogs by Elliot Ackerman
• 71:45 – 73:25: Electoral trends and closing thoughts

Tone & Style

The panel maintains their trademark conversational, wry, and irreverent intellectual style, with John Podhoretz keeping things brisk and lively, while the rest offer deeply informed yet accessible takes on the intersection of current events, history, and political philosophy.

For Listeners Seeking Key Takeaways

• President Trump’s Asia trip is substantively focused on securing allies and resources ahead of fraught negotiations with China, but is dogged by self-inflicted economic pain from tariffs and inflation.
• The Supreme Court’s upcoming tariffs ruling could profoundly alter Trump’s authority and economic legacy.
• Trump’s erratic, norm-breaking governance style — alternately considered “animal cunning” or just temperament — is testing American institutions and the patience of allies and opponents alike.
• The conservative movement remains deeply divided over how (or whether) to reconcile Trumpism with Reagan’s legacy and free-trade orthodoxy.
• American politics in 2025 is marked by a crisis of process, a collapse of institutional restraint, and an ever-expanding appetite for executive power.

End Note:
As the podcast’s theme song says, now is a moment to “hope for the best, expect the worst.”