Loading summary
Transcript89 lines
- [00:01]
Christine Rosen
This episode is brought to you by Shopify. Upgrade your business with Shopify, home of the number one checkout on the planet. Shop pay boosts conversions up to 50%, meaning fewer carts going abandoned and more sales going cha ching. So if you're into growing your business, get a commerce platform that's ready to sell wherever your customers are. Visit shopify.com to upgrade your selling today.
- [00:27]
John Podhoretz
Hope for the best Some preach and pain Some die of thirst no way of knowing which way it's going Hope.
- [00:42]
Abe Greenwald
For the best Expect the worst Hope for the best.
- [00:47]
John Podhoretz
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine daily podcast. Today is Tuesday, February 11, 2025. I am John Budhorts, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me, as always, executive editor Abe Greenwald. Hi, Abe.
- [00:59]
Abe Greenwald
Hi, John.
- [01:00]
John Podhoretz
Social commentary columnist and AEI Senior Fellow Christine Rosen. Hi, Christine.
- [01:05]
Christine Rosen
Hi, John.
- [01:06]
John Podhoretz
Oh, for everybody who is interested, Christine's book, the Extinction of Experience, I believe is now available in Great Britain.
- [01:16]
Christine Rosen
Yes, it just came out in the.
- [01:18]
John Podhoretz
UK in Great Britain, so we do have listeners in the old country. So it's a remarkable book and you should read it and you should read the essay about it by Michael J. Lewis and the January commentary available@comMENTARY.org and also with us, senior editor Seth Mandel. Hi, Seth.
- [01:40]
Seth Mandel
Hi, John.
- [01:41]
John Podhoretz
And joining us today, the host of the co host of the Israel Undiplomatic podcast, columnist with the Jewish News Syndicate, former advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and my sister, Ruthie Blum, direct from Tel Aviv. Hi, Ruthie.
- [01:59]
Ruthie Blum
Hi, John and everybody else.
- [02:03]
John Podhoretz
So, Ruthie, an earthquake, we've had daily earthquakes pretty much since Trump got inaugurated. And yesterday's earthquake was, of course, his announcement or statement that his patience was at an end, that if the 76 hostages currently held living and dead in Gaza were not released en masse by noon Sunday. He did not say, by the way, whether it was noon Sunday, American Eastern time or noon Sunday, Israel time, which would be, of course, 5:00 in the morning here in the United States, that he, he would consider the cease file deal essentially null and void and give a green light to Israel to do whatever it thought necessary. How is this going over in your precincts? And we should say there are different precincts in Israel, right? There's sort of Ruthie is part of the hawkish camp. There are, of course, a great many people when you, the, the polling is all over the place here. People want the hostages home, want, want to do whatever there is to get the hostages home. That's what polling says. 70% of people think everything should go on so that the hostages can be brought home. Trump's statement seems to be an implicit indication that since Hamas said it was not going to release three hostages this weekend, as the deal, ceasefire, deal requires, that either they are abrogating the deal or that the condition of the hostages is so dire to worse than dire that they don't even have hostages to release. So that number, that 70%, we should get the hostages out however we can, may be affected by, as I say, this implicit understanding that maybe things have reached a ghastly tragic endpoint. So how would you reckon with how things are there?
- [04:08]
Ruthie Blum
Okay, so first of all, it's on Saturday, not Sunday.
- [04:11]
John Podhoretz
Oh, did I say Sunday?
- [04:12]
Ruthie Blum
People in Israel. You said Sunday, but people in Israel, the reason that's relevant is that the hostage releases have been taking place on Saturdays, which is Shabbat here. And there's been a lot of talk about that, about why do we agree to let them do this on Shabbat when half the country can't participate in it or has to wait till Saturday night to know what happened, et cetera.
- [04:39]
John Podhoretz
When he should explain, we should explain the reason that people would have to wait till Saturday night is that Sabbath observant Jews do not use electricity. And so therefore, and are basically have to put their phones away and not look at TVs and stuff like that. And so they are. They're in a bubble since they also often live together in communities that all everybody is doing the same. So they're in a bubble. And so they don't know what the news is during the day on Saturday.
- [05:07]
Ruthie Blum
Right. And basically that's also not really true because everybody who goes to synagogues, for example, now, I mean, it is true, but in the end, people do know, because people who are not Shabbat observant often tell them they'll go walk up to them on the street, or people who attend a synagogue who don't, don't have that rule or don't keep that rule, will tell others. And I can't gather, but they can't.
- [05:35]
John Podhoretz
Really gather and they can't do their.
- [05:36]
Ruthie Blum
Still, they can't. So that's part of the assumption that Hamas did that on purpose as well, part of the torture. But of course, all day since Trump made that announcement or statement in a press conference, everybody in Israel has been talking about it. Every TV station, radio station. I mean, that's the talk, of course, talk of the day. Here's the thing that is interesting. What's interesting about it, two things. One is that on the Saturday of the last release of the three hostages who shook everyone to the core because they looked like Holocaust survivors. On that very day, Hamas commanders or leaders were in Tehran meeting with the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and he was congratulating them. They went there to. In honor of Iran's takeover of the Ayatollah's takeover of Iran in 1979, of the Green Revolution, whatever you call it, the Islamic Revolution. And while they were there, Khamenei apparently told them, he praised them for beating Israel and America and winning the war and not letting. Not being defeated. So that's kind of relevant. Happened on the same day. So it's possible that. That Iran was giving Hamas the green light to keep. To be more intransigent. That's possible. We don't know. But we do know that early on in the war, Iran claimed not to have been informed ahead of time about the. About the October 7th massacre, which nobody believed, but in any case, that's what it said. Now, the other strange thing that's happening is that the public was so shocked by the sight of those three men who were really half their size, if not less. And what was puzzling to me about it is that we know they're being abused. We saw what happened to all of them on October 7th. We saw it. We know it. Somehow, just seeing those men having lost most of their body weight was sort of snapped everyone into some kind of shock, including Trump, which seemed to me strange because even the girls who were released beforehand, we saw pictures of them on October 7th bleeding from every direction, and they were beaten and sexually abused. So I don't know why there's such a shock over there.
- [08:16]
John Podhoretz
Let's talk about that. Because I think one of the dogs that didn't bark when the hostages started coming out was that, particularly the first group of women, young women came out, they were smiling, they were happy to be home. There was these really, really moving scenes of them reconnecting with their families. And they clearly wanted to put, you know, show a stiff upper lip, that they hadn't been. They hadn't been destroyed by this experience. They hadn't been broken. They were still there in the. Later. I guess the second tranche was the young woman who proudly informed everyone that she had managed to keep kosher during the entirety of her. Of her captivity, that, you know, they weren't going to show that they had been broken. Right, you say. And then when we saw the three men come out, that illusion was shattered. The illusion that maybe, maybe they're kind of, okay, we'll get them out. And, you know, they have a long journey ahead to, you know, to be healed. But they're on the. They can be healed. And you looked at those three men and you thought, maybe they can't be healed. And if this is whom they have to release, God only knows what. What the condition is of the others who remain in. In captivity. And we know that Hamas said that there's at least one hostage who should have been released based on the formula that they said is not in good enough condition to be released. I mean, they acknowledge this at least.
- [10:03]
Seth Mandel
About one Amazon employee.
- [10:06]
John Podhoretz
Oh, the Amazon. That's right, the one. The Amazon employee that Amazon refused to acknowledge was an Amazon employee or to make any statements about the October 7 attacks, which was a really great moment for the tech industry and for our future economy.
- [10:22]
Abe Greenwald
Anyway, I just want to say, you know, in Hamas's releasing, the first batch that John, that you describe of, you know, smiling and upright and sort of, you know, putting on their best face, the Hamas apologists over here ran with, that is on social media, there was a lot of, where's the torture? Does this look like torture to you? Is this. I thought, I thought Hamas was evil and total suckers. I mean, bought it hook, line and sinker. Went out, out on a limb defending Hamas, using the appearance of those early releases as evidence.
- [11:04]
Christine Rosen
And a lot of those young women, correct me if I'm wrong, were held in the private homes of Palestinian citizens who were happy to aid and abet Hamas in holding women and children hostage. And it was that part of it that. Abe makes a very good point. All those nasty apologists for Hamas in the US neglected to see the irony that they were defending. You know, they love to defend the poor, beleaguered Palestinian people who were completely complicit in holding these young girls hostage for that many days. It's. It was.
- [11:34]
John Podhoretz
You know, Christine, this is a very important point that is ancillary but very connected to what is going to happen now, which is the Israeli public wants the hostage. Everybody, everybody on earth wants the hostages out, except for the people who want Hamas to do whatever to Jews or. But the complicity of the larger Gazan population with the goals and interests and strategies of Hamas, rather than saying, get these guys away from us. We want a different future. CHEERING Having those mob scenes, all of that is going to play a role in the Israeli public's opinion of what to do should Trump's ultimatum not be met. Right. So 12 o'clock comes and goes 76 hostages are not out. Right, so then you're on a knife's edge. Hamas has violated the terms of the ceasefire. It's over. That means United States has given Israel a green light. The Israeli population wants the hostages home and also is afraid of world opinion. Maybe. What are they going to do? What does it mean to restart the war? What weaponry are they going to use now that the pipeline is opened back from the United States with bombs and things like that. And maybe any softening of Israeli public opinion about how we've done enough, we've hurt them, we've destroyed enough and got, we've done enough, let them out. I don't know, maybe the condition of the hostages, all of that, and the fact that we know that, that the population in Gaza is still supportive of Hamas, that'll be like, well, the hell with you. The hell with you. You know, we were only going after Hamas. We're sorry about any collateral damage and we did whatever we could to minimize casualties. And we're that. You know what? We get no credit for it. The world doesn't give us any credit. People call us genocide ers while your population is growing. Our, our efforts to, Our efforts to be good, modern Western citizens, obeying all these dick tots about getting in the humanitarian aid and everything. No aid, no nothing. Bombs are going to fall. Where bombs are going to fall? We're going to give you an hour to run away. We are dropping 2,000. We're going to drop bunker busters to destroy the tunnels. Right? Is that, does that, Ruthie, does that conform with your.
- [14:14]
Ruthie Blum
Yeah. Oh, totally. It totally conforms. Well, I'll tell you something along those lines. Aside from that, Trump did an amazing thing because when he said, that's it, okay, we've had enough, that was from the President of the United States, coupled with his previous statement that he was going to just purchase Gaza or something and turn it into the Riviera and empty it out of Palestinians. And even when asked in the second press conference if Palestinians could return, he said no in some fashion. So now, interestingly, I heard an interview with a former general, a real leftist, who said, I think unwittingly, he said, well, of course we're all in favor of having Gaza emptied out of Palestinians. And why I'm laughing is that anytime an Israeli politician says that, the left goes berserk. You know, like Ben GVIR and Smotrich, the two famous people everyone loves to hate. Trump basically legitimized the view that, that Gazans are guilty and even those who aren't too bad if they're innocent. And anyway, if they're refugees and they should get out of there and be resettled, okay. And so he legitimized that position. But here's Bibi's real dilemma. Prime Minister Netanyahu's dilemma, everything you said about, okay, that's it, no more nice guy, we're dropping 2000 pound bombs, is that the hostage families still fear that dropping those bombs will result in the death of the remaining hostages, any of those who are alive now. So here's his dilemma. His dilemma is in every direction. The dead, the rescuing the hostages are or, or trying to go back into Gaza and have more soldiers killed or with. And the release of all these Palestinian terrorists from jails whose, whose victims are furious about that release, not to mention those, the future people, Israelis, who will be on posters either because they're kidnapped or because they were killed by the terrorists being released. So he has to choose between whose lives are more sacred. And that's an impossible situation. Now couple that with the delicate balance he has now with Trump. For a while, Trump was annoyed with Netanyahu for two reasons. One was that he claims, whether it's true or not, Trump claims that Netanyahu at the last minute chickened out of helping America assassinate Soleimani. And now Israel denies it. We don't know what's true, but that's in Trump's mind. And then the second thing Netanyahu did was to call Biden and congratulate him when he won the 2020 election. Now Netanyahu is back in Trump's good graces. Israel has always been in Trump's good graces, but Netanyahu, there was that personal issue there. And now Trump not only is giving huge backing to Netanyahu and Israel, first of all, by inviting Netanyahu to the White House, the first foreign leader to do, to be there and stand with him on a stage and show the world that Israel is most important to America, that it's not just an ally and a friend, but is its, its security is in America's interest. Now, when Trump said this, what he was doing, he said, if all the hostages aren't out by noon Saturday, then all hell will break loose. And of course, Israel can override that. But I've had it. This is coming from me now. What can Netanyahu do? If Netanyahu doesn't do something drastic, I think that Trump will see him as weak and not having taken an opportunity that he needs to take. So I think that right now the person I least envy in this world is Netanyahu.
- [18:30]
John Podhoretz
Okay, I gotta talk to you once again about quints. So quints, as you may know, is the go to for luxury essentials at affordable prices. When Quinn started to advertise on our podcast, they let me get one item for free. I got a sweater that was so glorious that I have in the months since purchased seven more several shirts and I just purchased a down puffer jacket from them. So as I talk to you about quints, just you should know that I have become a rabid quince fan and a enthusiastic quince customer because who doesn't love the good things in life? I mean, I like a little luxury, but I have three kids in private schools in college and it doesn't mean that I can always afford luxury. And that's one of the many reasons that I love quince, which offers a range of high quality items at prices within reach, like 100% Mongolian cashmere sweaters from 50 bucks monetary, washable silk tops and dresses, organic cotton sweaters and 14 karat gold jewelry. The best part, all Quint Items are priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. By partnering directly with top factories, Quint cuts out the cost of the middleman and passes the savings onto us. And Quint only works with factories that use safe, ethical and responsible manufacturing practices and premium fabrics and finishes. So give yourself the luxury you deserve with quintessential quints. Go to quint.comcomply for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That's Q-U-I-N C E.com commentary to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quints.com commentary have you ever spotted McDonald's.
- [20:32]
Ruthie Blum
Hot crispy fries right as they're being.
- [20:35]
John Podhoretz
Scooped into the carton and time just stands still. Okay, I want to read something to you. I sent this to you, but it's by a. It's by a, a friend in, in. In Israel, an American who made aliyah and it was a posting on Facebook and she is a dovish voter, dislikes Netanyahu and John and Herschelbert. Poland's parents, John and Rachel made a statement after Trump did the we should take over Gaza and rebuild it and depopulate it. And so this friend wrote, everyone is agog about this world leader who is thinking outside the box. But John and Rachel, the statement that they made their bigger, faster plan isn't shiny, it's quote, just to bring everyone home immediately. No more phases 76 this week they're out of the box is actually not so out of the box in the sense that they have spoken from their deepest selves all along, and so on. So Trump has now adopted the John and Rachel Goldberg Poland policy. He said 76 hostages this week. What, what my friend has done here is say this should be the out of the box thinking without the or else. She doesn't want an or else. Nobody wants an or else. The or else is out this week, or, as Trump said, there will be hell to pay. The problem with this sort of dovish position in general on Earth is that when you face these kinds of Hobson's choices, they always want a third option. And what Trump has done here is said there kind of is no third. We're out of third options. This hostage, this ceasefire was the third option. Six weeks, three a week, 33 moving 33 hostages out of the 98 left alive, then leaving us with, you know, a second phase where either the war is resumed or we find a new way. And Trump said, I guess that's over. Hamas started this by saying it would not release three hostages this weekend on the pretext that Israel fired on people who were moving toward the Israeli border in Gaza after they. After the Israelis pulled out of the Netzerim corridor. So there was an engagement in Gaza, but it was an aggressive offensive engagement by Hamas that Israel responded to defensively, interestingly enough. And then Hamas has used that as the pretext to say it does not, as you said. Maybe this is because they're showing, they're showing the Iranians they're still tough stuff, but this was the pretext for them making this announcement that they're not releasing hostages this weekend. And how Israel without Trump could say, okay, I guess you're not releasing the hostages this weekend. We'll just wait till next weekend.
- [24:01]
Christine Rosen
Well, hasn't, hasn't the entire Biden administration foreign policy approach since October 7, was that attempted a third way? I mean, the way that you just described a kind of third way, the dovish, the dovish approach. Oh, we'll just keep having talks, et cetera, et cetera, I would imagine. And Ruthie, you can speak to this, that the public both, I mean, definitely in the US the public that is on, that is pro Israel, has had enough. I mean, the idea of a belligerent Trump saying the things he said in the last week is actually refreshing to hear. And if some of it is a test of the will of Netanyahu, that's understandable given Trump's personality. But in general, is public opinion in Israel. Sort of relieved to see an American president actually throw his weight around internationally in this way on behalf of Israel and the hostages.
- [24:45]
Ruthie Blum
Totally relieved. And I want to make another point that's relevant to what you just said. It wasn't just that the women hostages who were released, you said, you know, on social media, they didn't look so bad. And they were also held in homes, private homes. They were also held in UNRWA facilities, UNRWA tents. This is really important because one of the biggest problems here with the hostages is we probably could have gotten them out last year if we had ceased all humanitarian aid into Gaza. And. No. And Israelis were afraid that that would mean that the hostages wouldn't get fed. Of course they're not getting fed by that aid. Hamas was stealing the aid and selling it. So that. But. And the. The pretext for not releasing three hostages this coming Saturday was also a claim that not enough trucks of humanitarian aid are going in. And that's a lie. But many, many Israelis, even dove, doves and hawks have said, you have to stop the humanitarian aid into Gaza. Now, Trump's statement indicates that he would totally back that, that he would not see. Biden kept saying to Israel all along, it wasn't just that this was the third option that Biden wanted. It was worse than that because the pressure was on Israel the whole time. It was, you're not in, more trucks have to go in. Now, all of that. Also US Aid that Trump is going after now was supplying tons of money to Hamas and cement and all kinds of things.
- [26:33]
John Podhoretz
So we have this before October 7th.
- [26:36]
Ruthie Blum
Before October 7th.
- [26:37]
John Podhoretz
Yeah. Yeah.
- [26:38]
Ruthie Blum
I'm not sure. It's not after October 7th as well.
- [26:41]
John Podhoretz
They weren't. They weren't supplying cement after October 7th.
- [26:44]
Seth Mandel
No.
- [26:44]
John Podhoretz
We did help. Yes. We did apparently help build the tunnel. So for us, that was a real accomplishment, and we should really be delighted that we, like, basically built the train tracks to Auschwitz.
- [26:57]
Christine Rosen
It was infrastructure week somewhere, right?
- [27:00]
John Podhoretz
Yeah, that's right. It's always infrastructure week. Can I, can I, can I.
- [27:03]
Ruthie Blum
That's important is that he will not stop Israel from. From adopting measures that up until now were impossible because of the international community and the Biden administration.
- [27:17]
John Podhoretz
Okay, so another thing happened yesterday that's interesting, which is that CBS released Trump is suing CBS and wants the FCC to pull CBS's federal licensing over the editing of an interview that Kamala Harris did in October with 60 Minutes. And as part of the effort to go through this process, 60 Minutes released the unedited transcript of the interview. And the issue that Trump had said that they had distorted in order to help Kamala Harris get elected was that they selectively edited her answer on Israel, Gaza, and October 7th. And while, while we have Trump saying Saturday, 76 hostages or, you know, or kaboom, and saying overnight, if Egypt and Jordan don't take in the Gazans, I'm cutting their aid off with Abdullah, King Abdullah coming to Washington today or tomorrow.
- [28:24]
Christine Rosen
I can't remember meeting all day with Abdullah.
- [28:26]
John Podhoretz
Oh, meeting all day. And he is, he has brought, he has welcomed him to Washington with word that I don't know how much aid we give to Jordan, but I know we give $3 billion worth of aid to Egypt, and he has now put that on the table. So here's Trump, 12:00 Saturday. Boom. Take hostages, take, take Gazans, or we're cutting your aid off. And here was Kamala Harris answering Bill Whitaker's question on 60 Minutes. I'm going to read this in full. It's 56. Okay, let's start with October 7th, because obviously what we do now must be in the context of what has happened. And as I reflect on a year ago when the 1200 people were massacred, young people at a festival, at a music festival, 250 hostages were taken, including Americans. Women were brutally raped. And as I said then, I maintain Israel has the right to defend itself. We would. And how it does so matters. And as we fast forward into what we have seen in the ensuing weeks and months, far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. And we know that. And I think most agree this war has to end. And that has to be our number one imperative. And that has been our number one imperative. How can we get this war to end? What. So that's, that's the, that's the dough. That's the brain full of dough and mush. That was American policy as expressed by the vice president who was then, if she had won, would be president today, and she would meet Bibi Netanyahu and she would say, we are dealing in the context of the time in which we would defend ourselves. But too many innocent Palestinians have been killed and God knows what's. So Trump, like, is cutting to the meat of the bone. And there are people in Israel who don't want that to happen either because of this thing that is now Trump has put on the table, which is Israel's gotta go do what it has to do. And that may mean the death of the remaining hostages. I mean, let's, let's not be euphemistic if he's not going to be euphemistic.
- [30:35]
Abe Greenwald
But can I just say, John, so, and I don't want to say this, but, but the fact that Hamas is, is stalling the release of hostages may also mean the death of the hostages because it, it's in part a response to the response of the last hostage release. And they don't have hostages that they can release that won't elicit that kind of response or worse. So what are they going to do with the hostages now, in any case?
- [31:05]
Seth Mandel
Right. Can I add a parallel, by the way, with the King of Jordan? He canceled Biden's visit and a meeting with Joe Biden early on in the war, after the New York Times printed the fake news about Ali hospital and the, and, and blaming Israel for blowing up a hospital that ended up being a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket and, you know, didn't actually kill 500 people and all the other stuff, but he canceled, he shut the door on Biden's face. The visit, the trip abroad was planned and announced that he was practically on the plane. And that's another one of these differences is that, you know, they felt like they could, you know, slam the door on the President of the United States face, and Trump is bringing the same guy here and saying, listen, you know, you're going to take in 500,000 Palestinians or you're not getting American aid or something like that. You know, the whole atmosphere has shifted completely from basically us not really having a president.
- [32:18]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [32:19]
Seth Mandel
Like they felt like they could ignore the idea of an American president's involvement in the entire conflict. It was an absentee presidency and now it's, you better do this or else.
- [32:33]
John Podhoretz
I mean, it's interesting because of course Trump believes in negotiation. And what he has done here is in each of these cases he is expressing the maximalist position. Right, so 76 hostages by Saturday or, you know, or, or, or we're unleashing hell. Right. Having said we're going to un hell if the hostages aren't released on January 20th, the hostage deal, the, the ceasefire six week ceasefire deal was achieved as a result of that. I don't think it was much of an achievement with something. Israel agreed to it. Steve Witkoff came and beat Bibi about the face and neck as he was recovering from prostate cancer surgery. Whatever it happened, there was a deal, he went maximalist, there was a mid position. That's what's interesting here is what if Hamas says, okay, we'll let 20 hostages out, does that, will that be we won, you know, we get, look, we got way more out than we thought we were going to get out. They said they weren't going to let the three out. Now they're saying they're going to let 20 out. Or is Trump like, no, this is it. Like, that's what we never know about him. Like, at what point is that? This is the last and final, you know, in real estate, the famous last and final. Is this Last and final 76 hostages out by Saturday or is there always, is there always a negotiating ploy? But the Egyptian aid thing is very, very striking to me. First of all, there's a administration is of course on the warpath against foreign aid. Egypt is receiving $3 billion a year from America as a result of a 46 year old deal struck because of the Camp David accords. That was the bribe to Egypt to make a permanent peace with Israel. And the bill is coming due for Trump is saying, we've been giving you $3 billion a year for 45 years. Right. Somebody do the math. It's math hour again. $135 billion we've given you in the last 25 years.
- [34:40]
Seth Mandel
You're taking Egypt is a big reason the war continues. So if Egypt is being paid off to have peace with Israel, Trump can say, you're violating that. You left the Rafah crossing open, you left the tunnels open and you let Hamas rearm and resupply and bring in reinforcements through those tunnels. And that's the reason Hamas is able to go to war with Israel every three.
- [35:06]
Abe Greenwald
But choking off that aid has to go through Congress, doesn't it?
- [35:09]
John Podhoretz
Well, yeah, but you think that's a problem?
- [35:14]
Abe Greenwald
Could be.
- [35:14]
John Podhoretz
Is that with whom I'm literally, that is actually, I'm literally saying like the.
- [35:23]
Abe Greenwald
Head of the Democrats and Democrats and Democrats. Unless, unless is less Israel supportive Republicans.
- [35:32]
John Podhoretz
Democrats like cece.
- [35:36]
Abe Greenwald
I don't know if they think about it in those terms.
- [35:38]
John Podhoretz
But, well, that's, but I'm just saying, like the idea that the Democrats are going to make a stand, but Democrats.
- [35:43]
Abe Greenwald
Saying, what is, what is Trump doing to our foreign policy? He's upending everything with.
- [35:48]
John Podhoretz
I understand, but I'm saying this is a soft underbelly. This is a very soft underbelly. And the odd part I think it is, I mean, like I, I, there is no Egypt, there is no Egypt lobby inside the United States, as far as I know. I mean, there's nobody who was like, oh, our great friend, you know, some of us think, thank God CC staged the coup that he staged because the Muslim Brotherhood would be in charge of Egypt right now. And then there would be, there would be an actual two front war in which Egypt would be participating and fighting against, openly fighting against Israel as part of this, you know, pan Arab liberationist strategy. But that was 12 years ago that Sisi took over 13 years ago. And as I say, the bill is coming due for America. He's saying, I want you to take refugees. You're the, you're the, you're the country next door. That's what happens in war countries next door, taken refugees all over the world forever since, you know, since the dawn of civilization. And you've shut the door while you are the, were the implicit or you sort of allowed this thing to happen. We're cutting off your aid. And as I say, I don't know who's going to stand up and say we don't. That guy, he's our man. God bless cece, He's a fighter.
- [37:13]
Christine Rosen
For underestimating Democrats, though, John, they've been on the wrong side of so many policies lately. It wouldn't surprise me that there would be a contingent that, I mean, they.
- [37:22]
John Podhoretz
Could say this is reckless. There's all kinds of things. People are saying it in the foreign policy establishment about Jordan. I mean, this is one of my favorite things is Richard Haas and others saying Jordan, we can't destabilize Jordan. Jordan is an important mediating player in the middle. You know, it's like, what, what are you talking about? That's really something that America should care about right now, is the state stability of Abdullah's government. Now, I do think it would be bad if Abdullah fell because then you might have a Palestinian state on the east bank really happen. And because 70% of the population of Jordan is Palestinian and it's being ruled by this Hashemite minority and has been for 70 years. But nonetheless, like, where's all this love for joy? What, what the hell has that guy done for us in the last 10 years?
- [38:19]
Christine Rosen
There's another ele element here that we have to take under consideration both in terms of how the, the left in the west, and I assume also in Israel, understands the Palestinians. They have a sort of moral status as a kind of permanent refugee that is constantly used as a foil to undermine Israel and that we've seen that for, for decades. And that is actually another thing that I think Trump's very straightforward belligerence on this issue just completely takes off the table in a way that the Biden administration was always sort of catering to this idea of the, oh, this poor permanent refugee Minority. Oh, who will take them in? You know, the. Israel mistreats them. They have. And the UN Is the reason they have that status. As Ruthie said, UNWRA was created to just protect this permanent refugee class. And that, I think, is something that Trump ignoring that status among the left about the Palestinians. It's the reason we see college students, you know, wrapping themselves in the Palestinian flag and wearing kafiyas. That has to end, too. That has to end. This is a practical problem of a people who are living next door to a country they seek to destroy. And I do think the people in Gaza are responsible for some of that and share the mission of Hamas and parsing who believes what and who's a victim and who's not. That time has passed. That time passed the minute October 7th happened.
- [39:45]
John Podhoretz
So I'm just saying there is this clarity, this moment of clarity, right. Trump says, I want to take over Gaza. Okay, whatever. See what happens there. The population needs to be moved out so that they can do a complete demo job. All right, well, you don't actually have to move the entire population out to do a demo job. The entire population of Germany and Japan weren't moved out of Germany and Japan, which were in ruins after World War II. You can rebuild. You can rebuild Khan Yunis and then move on to Rafah and they can go to the beach. You know, there. It's not like. It's not like things like this happen. You know, if there's a hurricane, people can rebuild during hurricane. But he said this is his. This is his idea. Get them all out so that we can just take a bulldozer and go from. Go from the north to the south to the Rafa corridor and, you know, just clear the place out. That's what he wants. And to do that, Jordan and Egypt have to take refugees. And he has now gone to point two, which is you're taking refugees or America. This is my policy. You're taking refugees or I'm not giving you money. And point three is Hamas. Get the. Get all the hostages out by Saturday or Israel is going to blow you to smithereens. They have. They have been withholding, and they've also been withholding their full might because of the hostages. But you're signaling that they're not going to get the hostages back anyway. So goodbye. And then we have this quote from Kamala Harris. There is what is in context of the context of the WHO and the we would do, but they wouldn't, and there's too many Palestinians. How do we end this War. How do we end this war? Well, Trump is saying we end this war in one of two ways. All the hostages are out, and then maybe some kind of a deal can be struck or Israel destroys you and Egypt and Jordan take all the Gazans and we basically level the place and start rebuilding, you know, build Miami Beach. So, I mean, it's not like their ambiguity may be entered into on the basis of the new extreme terms that Trump has laid down. Right. It's like what Trump wants is so wild, only half of it is gonna happen, but half is more than none.
- [42:08]
Seth Mandel
Well, this is, you know, this is like there's a, There's a biblical parallel here, which is like, is what I was thinking of, John, when you, when you started this off and we had the discussion about noon, which noon, you know, in Israel or here, which time zone was that? You know, when, when the last plague was coming down to the Egyptians and Pharaoh, you know, was. Was going to be affected personally by the final plague, God told Moses to say, you know, it's happening at midnight, the stroke of midnight. And Moses goes to Pharaoh and says, at a. About midnight. He says, at around midnight. And as the question is like, who is Moses to edit God's thread? Moses was like, but if it happens at 1201, he was gonna say, oh, the God, you know, God didn't know what he was doing. And God is like, if I say can happen at midnight, exactly midnight, but, you know, like this, this sort of wiggle room, but that's really what it's doing. Like, the question is, what does he mean? You know, new, nobody's asking if he's really threatening. They're asking like, well, what we want to know exactly the deadline that we have, because we're going to go right up until that deadline, you know, until it is. And that's sort of a change in the situation, too. The other question, by the way, Ruthie, I'm wondering about this. The specific comments that Trump used that we're discussing about the, you know, let all the hostages out, not in drip, drip, as he said, not two and three, right? He uses that voice like that sort of childish voice. Two and three here and one, making fun of the whole process. Israel sort of knows this in the back of their heads, I think, right? To a, that, to a certain degree, the structure of these hostage deals is kind of insane, you know, in a sort of like, irrational way, but not something they have the power to do something about.
- [44:16]
John Podhoretz
Right.
- [44:17]
Seth Mandel
Like, in other words, the public is out there in the streets, the polls show the public want the captives back. And so if this is the way to do it, Israel's going to agree to it and that, you know, that sort of thing. But it, I'm wondering if Trump has sort of burst the bubble on the way the things that the world asks Israel to do that it would never ask anybody else to do and that it knows really make no sense, but it doesn't want to upset the Palestinians or whatever in the future, are we going to see, you know, I'm sorry, I'm sorry to even have to say, you know, future hostage deals, but, you know, we anticipate that in the future, are we going to see differently structured deals is going to change the way that Israel is able to approach hostage negotiations in the future?
- [45:15]
Ruthie Blum
That depends on what Israeli government is in power at a given moment. But what is interesting when you mentioned, by the way, the what if Hamas agrees to release 20 hostages on Saturday? Okay? Now, don't forget it was Trump's threat, but he didn't threaten that he would bomb Gaza. So he said Israel can override this. Now, if Hamas were actually to agree to release 20 on Saturday, I find it very hard to believe that the Israeli government, that Netanyahu would say no to that. Very hard to believe. There's people in the streets screaming over their sons in Gaza. Rightly, I understand them. We all do. There's just no way, I think there's no way he would say no to that. But, you know, don't forget Israel was the country of Entebbe. The Entebbe raid. There was a time. And Netanyahu also wrote in his books in the past, you don't negotiate with terrorists. Well, you know, things changed and we got softer. And also the terrorists got smarter about the west, the mentality of the West. So first of all, yes, I hope that the whole paradigm changed. But what Trump did, what he changed was he basically made the left in Israel look ridiculous. Why? Because from the beginning of the war, the left here has been saying, what about the day after? What about the day after? Netanyahu hasn't planned for the day after. That's one thing he said. And then along comes Trump and says, okay, here's what's happening the day after. Not the Palestinian authorities watching Gaza, not the Arab em, the United Arab Emirates. We're doing it. We're going to take over Gaza and we're going to level it and turn it into the Riviera. Then the second thing, hostage families have been screaming and screaming, is everyone out now? The whole thing is now, now, all now, including after this deal was signed. So Trump is saying, I agree with you, all of them out now. So suddenly what you want to say to them, okay, but in order to do that, it has, comes with a price. Like you were saying, John, about the lib. The trouble with the liberals is that they say it and then when you say, okay, we've got a plan, they don't like that.
- [47:51]
John Podhoretz
Seth brings up an important point because if, if, if the hostage deal in Toto goes through, the ceasefire deal, 1900 Palestinian prisoners are going to be released, some number of them repopulate Hamas. And so the cycle begins anew. In some fashion, Hamas will have, will, will say that they have had a success because they got 2,000 people out. Israel, they haven't been, they haven't been toppled or, you know, they haven't been extirpated from Gaza and, and Israel will have established yet again the idea that if you take Israeli citizens hostage, that is a short circuit. That is a, that is a, that is a way to humiliate the country, to divide Israel, to create this terrible moral, spiritual dilemma that weakens and poisons them. And if you, if you establish the idea that, okay, you're going to take hostages, you're going to give them back, or Israel is going to have a green light. Now, again, this also depends on who the government of the United States is in the future, but you're going to give Israel a green light to do what it thinks is necessary to get the hostages out, which Biden did not do. I mean, Biden, first six weeks of the war, Biden was like, I'm with Israel. It needs to do what it has to do. And then things started to shift and for a year it was, Israel should stop fighting. Israel needs to give aid. Israel needs to protect the humanitarian workers. Israel needs to do this, Israel needs to do that. And there was literally no Hamas needs to. Now Blinken tells us, told us every time they went to the table with a deal, it was Hamas that blew the deal up. All these Israeli leftists who attacked Netanyahu and say he wants the hostages there because it's keeping his government afloat. This incredibly disgusting slander against him have not reckoned with the fact or don't want to acknowledge the fact that he agreed to deals like this in the past, it was Hamas that blew them up. Well, I think like we world can't go through this again. Israel can't go through this again. And Trump does, has provided a new third way. And the new third way is no one restrains. If Israel needs to restrain itself because it's a democracy and its voters say we're not going to go to war, we need to get the hostages out. That's Israel's choice. That's Israel's decision to make. But we're not going to stop them. These it's a criminal gang has gone and taken people and done something to them and no country would, would say that they're not allowed. Only Israel is told, it can't respond. And so it's a new, it's a new paradigm based on what happens from here on in theoretically a new paradigm. So Ruthie, if you had to guess, would you guess that the war. Hamas doesn't let the 3 out, Hamas doesn't let the 76 out. Bibi also has a political coalition. The political coalition is basically saying, okay, we're getting this green light. Trump wants to empty Gaza, which we would like to see go. We have to go now. It's been, it'll be 500 days by the time the hostage time the ceasefire. I don't know what the day number will be on Saturday. We're going, we're going in. They've right, they've. Israel has re activated the Gaza front. People have been called back to the Gaza front. I don't know if and as people may know, Ruthie's son, my nephew, who is in the reserves, fought. How many days was he in Gaza?
- [52:06]
Ruthie Blum
Oh God, I don't know. 300, 200, I can't remember the number.
- [52:10]
John Podhoretz
39. He's 39 years old with three kids. With two kids. Excuse me, 39 years old with two kids. He's divorced, so he has joined custody, shared custody with, with his ex wife. Kids have to be taken care of. He has to work to make a living to raise his family. 200 days or more he was in Gaza and maybe he'll be going back again. So is that a good thing? I mean, so this is the knife's edge here, which is. But I think you and a lot of people whose people who's like you, who have, you know, kids in their 30s who are going into Gaza, they want to win the war. They, they do not want this war to end inconclusively. That will be, that will mean that their sacrifice, which was enormous and I've told the story, but Ruthie's son alone was caught in an ambush. This is in October, caught in an ambush of his caravan in northern Gaza on his third deployment in this war. And three of his close friends were killed in the ambush and he himself was lightly injured on the hand. And you say to him, we're just going to end this war like this. Hamas will still kind of be in power. Yeah, it's very wounded, but it'll still be in power. There'll be celebrations in the streets of not only Gaza, but in Ramallah, in Jericho, all over the west bank, and maybe there'll be celebrations all over the Arab world. What is that going to mean for him? What is that going to mean for everybody who fought and the 500 families in Israel who have sons and daughters who died fighting in Gaza over the last year?
- [54:04]
Ruthie Blum
So, yeah, absolutely. And the parents of the fallen soldiers are livid about that. They don't want the war to end. They said, then my. The death of my child will have been in vain. And they will be right if Hamas remains in power. So the question is, what is going to happen this weekend? Now I'm what disturbs me aside from the others, that human. There are steps other than military might that could have been adopted right now. And one of them is to, is to take over the Nitterin Corridor again. What is this that it's open? And do you realize Gazans are freely going back and forth, back and forth, and nobody is checking them except the vehicles? Okay. Some kind of American, private, American company is checking cars going through this corridor, but people on foot are not being checked. And you realize it's winter, so they're wearing coverings and coats and God knows what RPGs are in those coats. It's outrageous that there should be movement in Gaza of any kind. We should be every minute taking back what, you know, the freedoms we gave them at this moment. And that doesn't involve soldiers. Well, it does if you have to close the Natarim Corridor, but I'm talking about fighting now, whether we're going to go back in there. I know the troops are getting prepared. And on Saturday, I don't know what's going to happen right now. There's been a Cabinet meeting this morning and I have no idea what's going to emerge from there. But I can tell you one thing. If there are no hostages and Israel does not, we don't do something drastic, two things are going to happen. First of all, that's going to be so the hostage families will be devastated because they didn't get another three hostages back. The rest of the country will be in a state of total demoralization because, okay, so no hostages and no defeating Hamas. So it's a terrible situation, I doubt that Netanyahu can afford to. And he'll also annoy Trump, let's not forget, because Trump did a wonderful thing by making his announcements. And if Netanyahu doesn't take advantage of that window, I think Trump will be pissed off.
- [56:27]
John Podhoretz
Okay, let's move to one other thing about Trump, because I think we've sort of thing happened yesterday. Two things happened yesterday. So we're talking about good Trump and now we're going to talk about bad Trump, because there's bad Trump and there's good Trump. So bad Trump yesterday not only pardoned former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who literally attempted to sell a Senate seat when Barack Obama became president. Blagojevich, governor of Illinois, had the job of filling the Senate seat, Barack Obama's Senate seat, and he put it up for auction, basically. And one of the many reasons that he went to jail and Blagojevich finished his time in jail and then went on the Apprentice. So Trump knows him from the Apprentice, and he pardoned Blagojevich, for whom there is literally no, there is literally no argument that Blagojevich deserves a pardon in any way. To not humanitarian. He served. His time was over. He's very famous, you know, whatever. Okay, so that was thing one, and then thing two was the announcement that he has directed the Justice Department to drop its case against New York Mayor Eric Adams. So we do appear to have Trump establishing a new criminal justice doctrine, according to which, because he, an elected official, was pursued by lawfare, any elected official in the history of America who was arrested for any crime or, or was arraigned or, or indicted for any crime should be considered immune from prosecution. Anybody have any.
- [58:14]
Abe Greenwald
Anybody quite.
- [58:15]
John Podhoretz
That.
- [58:15]
Abe Greenwald
I think it's. I think he probably likes Blagojevich for whatever reason, and that's. That matters to him. And I think he, he wants Adams to sort of, you know, do his bidding here in New York.
- [58:29]
John Podhoretz
So you think. So right now, Adams can only do his bidding here in New York for another year, because despite the fact that he is not gonna have distinction case against him, he's at 9% in the polls with Andrew Cuomo at 33%. If you're the mayor, sitting mayor of the city running for reelection and the primary is in June and you're at 9%, you know, it's like wave, wave goodbye to your second term. So he's not going to get much out of it.
- [58:56]
Abe Greenwald
But I think Trump also sees the Adams case as an example of the Justice Department cracking down on Adams because He was, you know, speaking out against the migrant crisis and.
- [59:12]
John Podhoretz
Right. Well, that's right. He, that's what he said. It's preposterous. By the way. The Adams case is not that strong. I'm not. If you, if you know about the Adams case, the whole thing centers on Adams taking the airline upgrades, airline upgrades from Turkish Airlines as a, as a sort of like spy for Turkey. But that's all they got on him. That, and he wanted them, he wanted the fire department to pass the new Turkish consulate, consulate's inspection, which apparently they were having trouble passing, and he sort of leaned on them to do that. Obviously, an indictment like that or these indictments are intended as opening gambits that, that they think they have more on him. They have a bunch of other people in the administrator in the Adams administration who have been indicted whom they are hoping, I guess, to turn to get dirt on him. And that's a, that's a standard issue way that the, that these prosecutors work. And maybe it's gross and maybe it's terrible and, but anyway, go ahead.
- [60:17]
Christine Rosen
Well, but I think Abe's point, it's interesting to contrast the Blagojevich decision, which is basically, you know, grift recognizing grift, I guess. But it, that's Trump. That's bad. Trump thumbing his nose at the system versus Adams, which might be, I think, to Abe's point, Trump wanting to exert some influence even for a year in a city like New York, which matters to him. It matters. I mean, that's his home city. And it matters to him that he feel powerful and influential still among, you know, New Yorkers. So I, but, but the Blaglovich thing is just Trump at his worst.
- [60:48]
Seth Mandel
I think Adams thing also is that he's, you know, there's, there's a question of whether Adams is just going to try to switch parties or run as an independent or Republican, whatever, and that, and, and maybe he got Trump's backing for that. Maybe that means Trump is going to, you know, go stomp around Manhattan in the outer boroughs for, for Eric Adams. I don't know what that means for his election prospects, but I just think this is the scheme in Adams's head is that he's, I think that he has given up on running as a Democrat in the Democratic primary, most likely. And that 9%, he's just sort of, you know, he's cutting his losses and he's going to sort of try a different way around.
- [61:24]
John Podhoretz
It's a very weird system here. We have ranked choice voting in the primaries in June. So if Adams is people's third choice and someone comes up on the pike to challenge Cuomo who isn't Adams, or Adams is the only person who challenges Cuomo. You know, things can happen. He can maybe make himself. I don't think he's out of the Democratic primary yet, and I don't think running as a Republican is his solution. The truth is he's been a terrible mayor, and what Trump wants out of him are policies that. Anyway, whatever, it's just sort of. We have to remember that along with everything else, Trump, every day, that a lot of us may like Trump every day is still doing very weird, very uncar. You know, things that are uncharacteristic of any sitting politician, like intruding on a Justice Department indictment that preceded his time of somebody who he doesn't really have any real connection to. He just made a joke at the Al Smith dinner about, oh, they treated you very badly. They treated you so badly, Eric. I know what that's like. You know, so it's like he's also.
- [62:39]
Seth Mandel
Created the situation where they treat him, where if you've been convicted of a federal crime, he's basically the Pope, right? So Robert Menendez comes out and says, boy, Trump was right this whole time about the corruption of the whole process and the investigation. You know, it's like Menendez is fishing for a pardon.
- [62:59]
Christine Rosen
He could literally get the indulgence with the gold bars he had squirreled away. Right?
- [63:04]
John Podhoretz
So who is Martin Luther? Who is Martin Luther? If you start selling indulgences the way Blagojevich was trying to sell, you know, classically, these governors, governors who got into trouble, sold pardons, which is sort of like selling indulgences. That wasn't Blagojevich, I don't believe. But, you know, that, that's a, that's a thing. And so Trump. I don't. Anyway, it's a, it's a. Just, it's important to remember if you're going to go, never go full maga. He's going to. He's going to. He's going to come at you. He's going to. He's going to do something you're not going to like every single day. You know, you got to take the good with the bad. Our cover in March just let you know, is Trump too good, bad and the ugly. So we'll try to lay that out for you when we close the issue tomorrow, and it'll be available at the end of the week. And we gotta go so, Ruthie Blume, thank you so much for being with us and sharing your insight.
- [63:58]
Ruthie Blum
Wait, before you sign off, I would just like to recommend to your viewers that they read Abe's newsletter, which is fantastic.
- [64:07]
John Podhoretz
Okay, to read Abe's newsletter, you gotta sign up at newsletter at the top of commentary.org's menu right there. Name email address comes out every, every weekday. Huge, huge praise. We're getting. We're getting so much positive feedback. It's ruining my crushing morosity. I gotta admit. I'm not increasing my anxiety. Oh, yeah, now that's good. That's the perfect Jewish response. You have a success and it's only causing you anxiety. So you should only enjoy anyway. And everybody should go. Subscribe to Israel Undiplomatic. Search for it at Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Ruthie and her co host Mark Regev debating what's going on in the Holy Land. And you can watch it on YouTube as well as you can watch the commentary podcast on YouTube where you should like and subscribe and leave a five star review or whatever. And you should do that for Ruthie's podcast as well. Anyway, thank you. And for Abe, Christine and Seth, I'm John Pot Hordes keep the candle.