The Commentary Magazine Podcast – Waterways and Means

Date: April 10, 2026
Host: John Podhoretz
Panel: Abe Greenwald (Executive Editor), Seth Mandel (Senior Editor)

Episode Overview

This episode centers around the ongoing Middle East crisis, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, recent ceasefire confusion, and Israel’s operational focus on Hezbollah. The hosts dissect the precariousness of the situation, America’s role and perception in global affairs, and Iran’s emerging leverage on global shipping routes. The panel also discusses Trump’s approach to the crisis, questions of regime change, and the international community’s divided response. The episode wraps with an analysis of Trump’s public split with right-wing media figures and a lively critique of the "Goodfellas" film as a "moral corrective" to The Godfather.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Disarray in the Middle East: Ceasefire Confusion and Strategic Waterways

(03:30–15:00)

• Return from Holidays; Baffling Developments

  • Seth shares disorientation after Passover: “When I came back it was. Things seemed closer to when I first left the prior week than they did before the major announcement of a total ceasefire. So I'm genuinely confused. I've been out for two plus days and this doesn't look like what it was represented to be.” (04:28, Seth)

• Strait of Hormuz Closure

  • The panel discusses Iran’s move to close the key shipping lane, noting that the threat alone—without significant military enforcement—has brought world shipping to a near halt.

• Pakistan as Mediator

  • John expresses skepticism about Islamabad as a negotiation site given anti-Israel rhetoric from Pakistan's officials:

    "That's a really great basis for a negotiation in which... Pakistan... [one] of whose leaders wishes that Israel would... Wishes the fate for Israel that Iran wishes for Israel." (03:36, John)

2. Trump Administration Response and Perceptions of Weakness

(06:16–08:22; 12:29–15:00; 25:09–29:16)

• Unclear Endgame

  • John notes, “We are getting nothing back from the administration that provides anybody with a sense of what where Trump and the White House and the State Department and the Defense Department... think we are at this moment.” (07:53, John)

• Theories Circulating

  • Abe recounts a leftist theory: The ceasefire serves Israel, allowing it to focus on Hezbollah. John acknowledges Israel’s “400 sorties a day... split 200 each between Iran and Lebanon,” rapidly shifted to Lebanon post-ceasefire.
  • Confusion inside the Biden (Trump?) Administration about Israel’s next moves persists (08:57–11:35).

• Trump’s Dilemma

  • John: “Can [Trump] really sit here and let the Iranians play him for a fool? ...The troops could use a break... We're going to go to Islamabad and we're going to storm out when they behave badly... Once again we've learned these people can't be dealt with...” (12:29, John)
  • Abe and Seth discuss historic US responses, such as Reagan’s mini-shooting war in 1987, and contrast the far higher level of global scrutiny today.

3. Iran, Blockades, and the “Hostage-Taker” Tactic

(15:00–34:39)

• Houthi Ship Toll Model

  • Seth notes the Houthis’ earlier strategy: “They were essentially operating a toll-operated, you know, Red Sea shipping lane... setting themselves up to make a lot of money…” (13:48, Seth)

• Modern Blockades: Threat as Weapon

  • John: “A world conflict has been ground to a halt because of a threat… the Strait of Hormuz is the new form of mutual assured destruction.” (23:30, John)
  • The trio reflect on how simply threatening violence now paralyzes the world, as the threat alone alters state behavior.

• Changing Technology & Information Flow

  • The panel notes the difference social media and drone warfare make—information and imagery spread rapidly, increasing political risk and pressure for US leaders.

4. Global and Domestic Politics: Allies, Critics, and America’s Standing

(27:04–34:39)

• Perceptions and Divisions

  • Panel agrees much of the world roots for US “humiliation”: “Much of the world wishes to see us defeated... a lot of the world wants to see us humbled and humiliated…” (27:04, John)
  • Seth riffs: “It’s not just about rooting for America to lose... this is all very reminiscent of everything we've been dealing with for the past couple years in terms of hostage-taking... This is like, I'm gonna hold the world hostage.”

• Inevitability of Confronting Iran’s Chokehold

  • If the US retreats, the toll booth at Hormuz becomes permanent: “Iran sets up the toll booths forever. There’s a new 10% or 15% tax on world shipping. Somebody’s going to have to stop them.” (34:39, John)

5. Strategic Future Risks & Analogies

(40:33–42:43; 46:32–48:57)

• Strait of Hormuz as Geopolitical Blackmail

  • Seth underscores the timing risk: What if Iran closes the strait during an Asia-Pacific or European crisis?

    “Iran could do this at a much worse moment for the world and the west than this... They could cripple the global economy at a moment when it could tip, you know, a global military conflict to China and Russia.” (40:33, Seth)

• Analogy: North Korea’s Nuclear Status

  • John draws a comparison: Just as the world bribed North Korea not to go nuclear until it was too late, “Iran has always had the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz. Now the world knows…” (42:43, John)

6. The Limits of Unilateralism and the Cost of Rhetoric

(47:05–51:55)

• Trump’s Style & Lack of Support

  • John: “Unilateralism has a cost, and this is the cost. So we don't get [global support]. But logistically, [we're right there].” (47:05)
  • Discussion about how Trump’s rhetoric (and aversion to moralizing alliances) precludes rallying the world.

• Compartmentalizing Critique and Strategic Reality

  • Seth: “The doctor didn't cause the cancer by discovering the tumor and we're being treated as though we put this cancer into the world.” (48:57)
  • Panel suggests critics could acknowledge both the strategic threat (tumor) and their opposition to the war, but most are too invested in “sticking it” to the US.

7. Trump’s Possible Endgame and Regime Change

(51:55–62:55)

• Trump’s Goals

  • John insists: “I will never tire of saying that the end game of this moment has got to be a change in the regime in Iran... The regime cannot survive this and the war be deemed a success.” (51:55)

• Pattern of Persistence

  • John suggests Trump’s temperament is to stick to overarching goals: “His goal is to get rid of the Iranian regime... He doesn't want to have to be responsible for the regime after it's gone. But that is his goal.” (54:50)

• Negotiations as Theater

  • With the Islamabad talks looming, John suspects they will collapse after Iranian maximalist demands (“shine our shoes and you have to convert to Islam and whatever”), forcing the US back into conflict. (59:54)

• Iran’s Need to Save Face

  • Abe: “Because of the beating the regime took, they have to show some form of cosmetic strength... obstinacy now is going to be at an 11... at a 12.” (62:19)

8. Trump vs. Right-Wing Media: The Social Media “Nuclear Option”

(62:55–70:08)

• Trump Attacks erstwhile “MAGA” Media Allies

  • John highlights Trump’s bout with Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly:

    “The tweet is an act of rhetorical brilliance that will be studied for centuries to come... You cannot like me and like Tucker Carlson any longer, said Trump.” (62:55, John)

• Panel Reactions

  • Abe wishes Trump was “more dismissive,” rather than spending so much time on them.
  • Seth notes the irony of these figures now complaining about Trump’s tone (“they were as dismissive as anybody of the idea that Trump's tone matters... now, the Megyn Kellys of the world... It's like watching them tone police Trump is just... an amazing thing to see.” (68:24, Seth)

• Political Impact

  • J.D. Vance’s (Chief Negotiator) awkward position is noted, as is the potential for shifts in right-wing media alignment.

9. Film Review & Recommendation: “Goodfellas” as a Moral Corrective

(71:44–81:07)

• John’s “Goodfellas” Analysis

  • John praises “Goodfellas” as a masterpiece and moral corrective to the romanticization of the mafia in “The Godfather”:

    “This is a movie about the evil of The Godfather. It's a movie about... the fantasy that these people do things because they want to help their family ... They are, in fact, all amoral psychopathic monsters and they deserve nothing but the worst. They have no admirable qualities, their charms fade, their evil surfaces and is undeniable.” (73:55, John)

• Historical Document

  • Abe and Seth note the film has become a period piece, capturing a now-vanished mafia culture, contrasting with the more mythological Godfather.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Global Confusion:

  “If you had been online without sleeping from Tuesday night until the present moment... you would have no idea.”
  — John Podhoretz (06:09)

• On Iran's Leverage:

  “Iran sets up the toll booths forever. There's a new 10% or 15% tax on world shipping. Somebody's going to have to stop them.”
  — John Podhoretz (34:39)

• On The World’s Appetite for US Defeat:

  “Much of the world wishes to see us defeated… this would restrain world powers, mostly us…”
  — John Podhoretz (27:04)

• On the Doctor and the Tumor:

  “The doctor didn't cause the cancer by discovering the tumor and we're being treated as though we put this cancer into the world...”
  — Seth Mandel (48:57)

• On Trump’s Inflexibility:

  “His goal is to get rid of the Iranian regime... His goals don't change.”
  — John Podhoretz (54:50)

• On Tone Policing:

  “It's like watching them tone police Trump is just, it's an amazing thing to see because it's like suddenly they realize that it matters what a president says and whatever, but they have no credibility to make that complaint.”
  — Seth Mandel (68:24)

• Film Critique:

  “This is a movie about the evil of the Godfather... They are, in fact, all amoral psychopathic monsters and they deserve nothing but the worst.”
  — John Podhoretz (73:55)

Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode is brisk, ironic, and skeptical, blending high-level geopolitical analysis with moments of media criticism and pop culture observation. The panel takes a realist, sometimes rueful approach to Middle East power dynamics, US global standing, and narrative manipulation both at home and abroad. The hosts’ style is conversational, wry, and reflective, offering listeners both insight and entertainment.

Essential Timestamps

• 03:30 – Middle East ceasefire confusion, Pakistani mediation skepticism
• 08:00 – Israel leverages ceasefire to hit Hezbollah
• 13:48 – Houthi toll model applied to Iran
• 23:30 – Iran’s threat as next-gen “mutual assured destruction”
• 34:39 – What happens if America withdraws?
• 40:33 – Future risk: Iran & global crises
• 42:43 – North Korea analogy/Iran’s quiver
• 47:05 – The cost of Trump's unilateralism
• 62:55 – Trump nukes the MAGA podcast right
• 71:44 – "Goodfellas" analysis & recommendation

For anyone who missed this episode, this summary should provide a clear view of the Commentary team’s perceptions of the global crisis, US domestic and foreign policy, and shifts in the political/media right—along with a brief foray into why “Goodfellas” endures as both art and social document.