The Commentary Magazine Podcast: Episode Summary Title: Why Did Israel Agree?
Release Date: November 27, 2024
Host: Jon Podhoretz
Guests: Matthew Continetti, Abe Greenwald
Publisher: Commentary Magazine

Introduction

In the episode titled "Why Did Israel Agree?", host Jon Podhoretz engages in an in-depth discussion with Washington Commentary columnist Matthew Continetti and Commentary Magazine's Executive Editor Abe Greenwald. The conversation primarily revolves around the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, analyzing its terms, motivations, and implications for the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. Additionally, the hosts delve into the internal dynamics of the United States political sphere, particularly focusing on President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Overview of the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

At approximately [01:57], Jon Podhoretz opens the discussion by detailing the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The ceasefire, initiated at 4:00 AM Middle Eastern time, involves several key stipulations:

• Mutual Ceasefire: Israel agrees not to target Lebanon, and Lebanese forces, including Hezbollah, refrain from attacking Israel.
• Withdrawal Timeline: Israel is mandated to withdraw all its military forces from Lebanese territory within 60 days.
• Buffer Zone Establishment: Hezbollah is required to relocate its forces north of the Litani River, approximately 18 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border.
• Lebanese Army and UN Involvement: The Lebanese army, supported by United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), is tasked with securing the buffer zone and preventing Hezbollah's re-entry or rearmament.

Podhoretz sarcastically remarks on the Lebanese army's historical inefficacy, comparing it to the Washington Generals, the perennial opponents of the Harlem Globetrotters known for their lack of competitiveness.

Notable Quote:

“...the Lebanese army, which is a little like talking about the Washington Generals, the team that used to play the Harlem Globetrotters...” — Jon Podhoretz [01:57]

Role of the United States: Biden’s Statement and Trump’s Position

Following the ceasefire announcement, President Joe Biden addressed the situation from the White House lawn. Podhoretz criticizes Biden's remarks, suggesting that the President inflated the significance of the ceasefire by projecting overly optimistic outcomes.

Notable Quote:

“...Biden reserves the right to defend himself against any action... but ended with a 3 minute peroration of absolute psychosis...” — Jon Podhoretz [06:04]

Podhoretz mocks Biden's ambitious plans to broker a broader peace deal in the Middle East, likening them to historical peace accords but deeming them unrealistic given the current political climate.

He further highlights Trump's interactions with Netanyahu, noting that Trump had previously expressed support for the ceasefire, potentially aiming to enter office with reduced regional tensions.

Netanyahu’s Rationale for Agreeing to the Ceasefire

Abe Greenwald provides a detailed analysis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's motivations behind accepting the ceasefire. He outlines three primary reasons Netanyahu presented:

1. Refocusing on Iran: Netanyahu emphasized that the ceasefire would allow Israel to concentrate its military and strategic efforts on countering Iran's influence in the region. He metaphorically described Iran as "the head of the octopus," signifying its pervasive reach across various Middle Eastern factions.

   Notable Quote:

   “...Israel is supposed to not fire on Lebanon and forces from Lebanon are not supposed to fire on Israel...” — Jon Podhoretz [01:57]

2. Replenishing Military Reserves: After over a year of continuous conflict, Israeli reservists were exhausted. The 60-day ceasefire provides a necessary respite to replenish military stocks and ensure that forces remain combat-ready.

   Notable Quote:

   “...the reservists have been under great strain over a year of war... this would be at least 60 days of respite in the north.” — Abe Greenwald [06:04]

3. Isolating Hamas: By establishing a clear separation between Hezbollah and Hamas operations, Netanyahu aims to isolate Hamas and diminish its operational capabilities. This isolation is intended to present Hamas with fewer allies, thereby weakening its strategic position.

   Notable Quote:

   “...Hezbollah is taken off the stage, at least on paper, for 60 days, showing Hamas that it is isolated.” — Abe Greenwald [09:35]

Greenwald also criticizes the enforceability of the ceasefire, questioning whether Israel will take the necessary steps to ensure Hezbollah adheres to the agreement without relying on external forces like the Lebanese army or UNIFIL.

Challenges and Skepticism Surrounding the Ceasefire

The hosts express significant skepticism about the viability and enforceability of the ceasefire. Concerns include:

• Lebanese Army’s Capability: Given the Lebanese army's historical inefficacy, there are doubts about its ability to maintain the buffer zone effectively and prevent Hezbollah's resurgence.

• Hezbollah’s Intentions: Evidence of immediate provocations post-ceasefire, such as the incident involving a Jeep crossing the border and the ensuing Israeli warning shots ([06:42]), raises doubts about Hezbollah's commitment to the agreement.

• Political Pressures: Netanyahu faces domestic pressure, as the ceasefire is reportedly unpopular among Israeli citizens who desire a more decisive defeat of Hezbollah.

Notable Quote:

“...it all comes down to enforcement. It all comes down to whether Israel... is prepared to take steps to make sure that Hezbollah cannot rearm...” — Abe Greenwald [11:35]

Impact of Hostages on the Ceasefire and Future Conflict

The issue of hostages held by Hamas is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the ceasefire and future military actions. The discussion outlines:

• Hostages' Uncertain Status: There remain five Americans held hostage, leading to an atmosphere where true victory for Israel is unattainable until their fate is resolved.

• Biden and Trump's Positions: Biden’s optimistic rhetoric contrasts with the grim reality of ongoing hostage situations. The transition to Trump’s administration in two months could alter the dynamics, potentially leading to more aggressive actions to secure hostages.

• Public Sentiment: The ongoing hostage crisis contributes to national PTSD in Israel, ensuring that the ceasefire does not translate into a perceived victory and continues to keep the population on edge.

Notable Quote:

“...this will not feel like a victory until there is a resolution of the state and condition of the hostages.” — Matthew Continetti [19:02]

Hezbollah and Hamas Dynamics Post-Ceasefire

Podhoretz and Greenwald discuss the current state of Hezbollah and Hamas following the ceasefire:

• Hezbollah Leadership: High-ranking leaders within Hezbollah, including Hassan Nasrallah, have either been eliminated or are in hiding, weakening the organization's command structure.

• Hamas’ Position: The deaths of senior Hamas leaders and the organizational fragmentation pose challenges for the group in maintaining cohesion and operational efficiency.

• Prospects for Future Conflict: The hosts speculate that while Hezbollah appears significantly weakened, the underlying tensions remain unresolved. Without a definitive military victory, the groundwork for future conflicts persists.

Notable Quote:

“...Hezbollah is not the enemy. Iran's the enemy, and you're fighting on the periphery rather than fighting at the center.” — Jon Podhoretz [15:14]

Broader Implications for the Middle East

The ceasefire's implications extend beyond the immediate Israeli-Lebanese conflict, impacting the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape:

• Iran’s Influence: The agreement signals a potential shift in Israeli strategy to more directly confront Iran’s regional ambitions, possibly leading to intensified efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities.

• Regional Stability: The establishment of a buffer zone could either pave the way for lasting peace or serve as a temporary measure, depending on the effectiveness of enforcement and the willingness of regional players to adhere to the agreement.

• US Foreign Policy: The role of the United States, particularly under the Biden administration, is scrutinized regarding its influence on the ceasefire and future Middle East policies. The imminent transition to the Trump administration raises questions about the continuity and direction of US involvement in the region.

Discussion on US Politics and Kamala Harris

Transitioning from Middle Eastern geopolitics, the hosts shift focus to internal US political dynamics, particularly targeting Vice President Kamala Harris and her political future:

• Kamala Harris’ Performance: The hosts criticize a recent video featuring Harris, suggesting unprofessional behavior that could jeopardize her political aspirations. They mockingly describe the video, implying it portrays her in a negative light.

  Notable Quote:

  “...she's drunk on her ass, people... people easily in the first 15 minutes of watching this 30 second video said oh my God, she's Drunk.” — Jon Podhoretz [43:04]

• Political Future: The conversation speculates that Harris may struggle to maintain a significant political presence following perceived missteps, potentially diminishing her prospects for future gubernatorial or presidential candidacies.

• Campaign Strategy: Criticism is directed at Harris’ campaign strategy and messaging, suggesting a disconnect with voters and insufficient effectiveness in competitive states.

  Notable Quote:

  “...every single place shift to the right... Trump did better everywhere.” — Jon Podhoretz [53:05]

• Democratic Party Challenges: The hosts argue that the Democratic Party faces fundamental structural issues, likening the need for a thorough rethinking to the Republican Party’s transformation under Trump. They express pessimism about the Democrats' ability to revitalize and adapt to the current political environment.

Recommendations and Closing Remarks

In the concluding segments, the hosts divert to lighter content, offering recommendations and personal anecdotes:

• Entertainment Recommendation: Abe Greenwald recommends the classic series Mystery Science Theater 3000 (MST3K), praising its comedic take on bad movies as an engaging and family-friendly watch.

  Notable Quote:

  “...Mystery Science Theater 3000 is our recommendation... it's a fantastic.” — Jon Podhoretz [65:59]

• Final Remarks: The hosts wrap up the episode with well-wishes for the upcoming holidays and a promise to return for the next podcast installment.

Conclusion

The episode "Why Did Israel Agree?" offers a comprehensive analysis of the recent Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, scrutinizing the motivations behind Israel’s agreement and the precariousness of its enforcement. The discussion highlights the intricate interplay between regional power dynamics and internal political considerations within the United States. While the ceasefire presents an opportunity for Israel to recalibrate its focus towards Iran, skepticism about its longevity and effectiveness remains high. Additionally, the critique of Kamala Harris underscores broader concerns about the Democratic Party's strategic direction in a rapidly evolving political landscape.

Notable Quotes Overview

1. Jon Podhoretz on Lebanese Army:

   “...the Lebanese army, which is a little like talking about the Washington Generals...” — [01:57]

2. Jon Podhoretz on Biden’s Statement:

   “...ended with a 3 minute peroration of absolute psychosis...” — [06:04]

3. Abe Greenwald on Ceasefire Enforcement:

   “...it all comes down to enforcement... Hezbollah cannot rearm...” — [11:35]

4. Matthew Continetti on Hostages:

   “...this will not feel like a victory until there is a resolution of the state and condition of the hostages.” — [19:02]

5. Jon Podhoretz on Kamala Harris:

   “...she's drunk on her ass, people...” — [43:04]

6. Jon Podhoretz on Political Shifts:

   “...every single place shift to the right... Trump did better everywhere.” — [53:05]

Note: This summary meticulously excludes advertisement segments and non-content sections, focusing solely on the substantive discussions relevant to the podcast's primary themes.