The Commentary Magazine Podcast - "Wishcasting Failure" (March 11, 2026)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast—hosted by John Podhoretz with regulars Abe Greenwald and Seth Mandel, and special guest Chris Stirewalt—tackles the interlinked themes of media bias, war coverage (specifically the ongoing US-led conflict with Iran), the culture of political partisanship, the evolving nature of American journalism, and increasing cultural anxiety among Jews in the West post-October 7th. The conversation explores how institutions—especially the New York Times—shape public perception, the incentives in political and journalistic behavior, and what recent social and political developments reveal about American society’s moral health.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Media Dominance and the New York Times

• (Starting at [02:09])

• John Podhoretz outlines the New York Times' unprecedented dominance: “We're now in a situation in which the New York Times is as dominant a figure in the field of news gathering as Xerox was in the field of copying when copying began.”
• Not just a leading newspaper, but the central driver of online news with 13 million subscribers, influencing all other outlets – TV networks, other major papers, and even ideological opposites (“Much of the media is attitudinally inclined to parrot the New York Times... This is the Sean Hannity phenomenon”—[05:12], Stirewalt).
• Chris Stirewalt notes the Times' ability to define the nation’s “information bloodstream,” calling it a “behemoth of all behemoths,” while also recognizing the Wall Street Journal's deeper reporting on specific stories ([05:13]).

2. Bias, Narrative, and Incentives in War Coverage

• (Spanning [00:58]–[14:52])

• The panel criticizes what they perceive as ‘wishcasting’ failure in coverage of the US-Iran war: Despite overwhelming military superiority, headlines are doom-laden, as if “we are in the middle of the Battle of the Bulge”—Podhoretz ([01:43]).
• Stirewalt: There’s a significant career upside—but little downside—for journalists predicting disaster (“If you are wrong about a war going poorly, there is little consequence to be had... But the rewards are substantial”—[08:43]).
• The perverse incentive structure is discussed: “Nobody ever went broke saying that a war was going to go badly and then it went well. But you could go broke saying the war is going to go well and then it went badly.” —Podhoretz ([19:05])
• Abe Greenwald adds that skepticism is easier in a culture already primed to think “any American war... has done more harm than good” ([12:34]), referencing World War II revisionism.

3. Partisanship, Cynicism, & Public Opinion

• (Around [14:13]–[21:48])

• The panel discusses Pew polling showing unprecedented mutual suspicion and moral condemnation among Americans toward each other, and increasing belief that “America does more harm than good”—Podhoretz ([14:19]).
• Stirewalt calls it “an acid bath in which no decent discourse can occur” ([15:02]), lamenting the “deeply cynical attitude” and expressing concern over the future of effective self-government.
• Podhoretz argues political polarization is now complete: “Ideological camps were much fuzzier [in the past]... now they are completely congruent, almost hyperbolically congruent with these party lines”—([19:04]).

4. Congress, the Senate, and the Incentives to Grandstand

• (Focused at [25:12]–[46:34])

• Seth Mandel describes how base voters, not party leaders or insiders, now “own” individual members in safe districts, leading to grandstanding and public antagonism over building consensus ([23:59]).
• Podhoretz observes the shift from “retail politicians”—glad-handers who build relationships—to the rise of click-hungry provocateurs: “...over time, the people who get the most attention...are people who go up to you and say, you’re so fat, I hope you die of diabetes and cancer” ([25:37]).
• Legislative dysfunction is compounded by a refusal to resolve issues. As Stirewalt puts it: “...in the perverse incentives of a duopoly, it doesn’t matter who wins the cola wars. It only matters that the cola wars be fought and that people drink more cola.” ([39:58])

5. The Filibuster and Legislative Gridlock

• (Deep dive at [29:56]–[43:31])

• Debate on whether modifying or abolishing the filibuster (e.g., returning to the “talking filibuster”) would reinvigorate or further hobble the Senate.
• Stirewalt: “The talking filibuster would actually be the perfect expression of our profanely bad Congress.” ([31:55])
• The Senate is unable or unwilling to resolve even widely supported issues (such as voter ID) because both parties would rather keep live issues as political ammunition than resolve them (Podhoretz, [40:29]).
• Legislative inertia results in the country being unable to move past perennial, consensus issues—immigration, late-term abortion ([44:09]–[45:56], Stirewalt).

6. Media Coverage of War and the Relentless Pursuit of the Negative

• (Returning at [46:34]–[52:43])

• The podcast skewers the NYT war coverage for “desperately trying to prove that an American missile killed 157 girls at a school”—Podhoretz ([48:13]).
• Discussion of how this editorial choice shapes the narrative around the conflict and feeds broader anti-American sentiment at home and abroad.

Notable Quote:

“They are not stopping. They will not stop until they can smear the blood of the girls on the American flag. So that’s a choice. That’s an editorial, deliberate editorial choice.” —John Podhoretz ([48:13])

7. Jewish Identity, October 7th, and Cultural Revelation

• (Segment [53:02]–[75:16])

• Seth Mandel discusses his recent article on the unnerving way many on the American left have reserved empathy for those who justify or endorse October 7th–style anti-Jewish violence, rather than its victims.
• He employs a metaphor from an old Simpsons arcade game: “...the October 7th button” allows you to see who’s truly an ally and who’s only pretending, when it comes to universal liberal principles ([59:46]).
• Mandel and Podhoretz agree that the events have revealed, not just hypocrisy, but the actual beliefs and moral priorities (or lack thereof) of many American elites.

Notable Quote:

“The proper thing to do is to say you support rape. You're not an opponent of rape. You are a supporter of rape. You have made that very clear. And you will not speak a word without somebody responding that you were a supporter of murder, of torture and rape. So congratulations to everybody who voted for you. They are stained with your stain.” —John Podhoretz ([56:34])

8. Book Recommendations and the Lessons of History

• (Segment [63:56]–[75:16])

• Podhoretz recommends "The Oppermans" by Lion Feuchtwanger, a novel written as the Nazis rose to power, illustrating the psychological and institutional cues early on.
• The panel reflects on historical analogy; while cautioning against overblown Nazi parallels, they note increased cultural vulnerability for Jews, not from government, but from societal and institutional actors.

Related Quote:

“The wolves are at the door, but they’re not governmental wolves. It's that our culture is being taken over. It's that our universities have been taken over. It's that the Oscars are going to feature yet another speech by somebody about the evil of Israel.” —John Podhoretz ([71:32])

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• On Media Incentives:
  • “If you are wrong about a war going poorly, there is little consequence to be had... But the rewards are substantial.” —Chris Stirewalt ([08:43])
• On The Times’ Cultural Sway:
  • “Much of the media is attitudinally inclined to parrot the New York Times, but they’re all left and right. This is the Sean Hannity phenomenon...” —Chris Stirewalt ([07:10])
• On Modern Political Culture:
  • “Over time, the people who get the most attention... are people who go up to you and say, ‘You’re so fat, I hope you die of diabetes and cancer.’” —John Podhoretz ([25:37])
• On Division and Cynicism:
  • “The contempt that Americans feel for each other... is an acid bath in which no decent discourse can occur.” —Chris Stirewalt ([15:02])
• On Endless Unresolved Issues:
  • “A dysfunctional Senate robs us of the ability to reach conclusions and say that things are done.” —Chris Stirewalt ([44:19])

Timestamps for Major Segments

• The War, Media Coverage, and NYT Dominance ................................. [00:58]–[14:52]
• Polarization, Party Identity & Pew Polling ................................................. [14:13]–[21:48]
• Political Incentives, Congressional Dysfunction .................................. [25:12]–[46:34]
• Filibuster Debate & Voter ID Example .................................................... [29:56]–[45:56]
• War Coverage: The School Bombing Story ........................................... [46:34]–[52:43]
• Jewish Anxiety, Hypocrisy, and Unmasking after October 7th ............ [53:02]–[63:56]
• Historical Parallels, "The Oppermans", and Zionism for Survival ........ [63:56]–[75:16]

Tone and Language

The conversation is intelligent, trenchant, often sardonic, and candid—true to Commentary’s signature style. There is significant historical and literary referencing (Agincourt, Henry V, The Oppermans, Thucydides, Shakespeare) and a firm willingness to draw sharp moral and political distinctions. Frequent self-referential humor keeps the tone lively despite the seriousness of the subject matter.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In:
This episode weaves together cultural criticism, media analysis, and insights into both political and Jewish communal life in a time of war and deepening division. The hosts’ focus on incentives—journalistic, political, and social—offers a compelling framework for understanding otherwise inexplicable trends in news and discourse. The second half’s reflection on moral clarity amid a climate of rising open hostility toward Jews will resonate with anyone concerned about hypocrisy and the future of liberal, pluralist values.

Skip List: Ads at [16:06], [31:55], and [35:44] can be omitted.