The Commentary Magazine Podcast: "Worst Case Scenarios and" – December 31, 2024

Hosted by Commentary Magazine, this holiday edition of the podcast delves into the current state of American politics, exploring the potential for a new political party, assessing best and worst-case scenarios for the nation's future, and concludes with a nostalgic look at 1970s sitcoms.

Introduction

In this special holiday episode of The Commentary Magazine Podcast, host John Podhoretz engages with a panel of esteemed commentators to discuss pressing political concerns and lighter cultural topics. Joining him are Abe Greenwald (Executive Editor), Seth Mandel (Senior Editor), Matthew Continetti (Washington Commentary Columnist), and Christine Rosen (Media Commentary Columnist). The episode begins with Podhoretz welcoming his co-hosts and introducing a listener question that sets the stage for an in-depth political discourse.

Listener Question: The Possibility of a New Political Party

Timestamp [00:46]

Listener Zach Silverman poses a thought-provoking question: "Given the disillusionment with both Democratic and Republican extremes, is there a possibility for a new political party to arise?" Zach expresses concern over the current bipartisan control by extreme factions and wonders if a significant realignment or a third party could emerge to address these issues.

Christine Rosen ([02:00]) responds by expressing skepticism about the emergence of a third party in the current political climate:

"I don't see in our current fractious political moment that being something that can legit logistically happen... unless the younger generations really do want to separate themselves from both the Republican and the Democratic parties."

Matthew Continetti ([03:32]) expands on historical realignments, noting:

"There's been a huge realignment over the past hundred years with the south... voting for Republicans down ballot."

He suggests that while a third party is unlikely, internal realignments within existing parties are more plausible, especially as voter bases shift based on educational attainment and ethnic lines.

Abe Greenwald ([06:21]) adds:

"I share your doubts about the possibility of the emergence of a third party. But the parties themselves do get remade almost into new parties on the left and the right."

Seth Mandel ([11:00]) emphasizes the challenges third parties face, highlighting their tendency to be hyper-ideological:

"Third parties and small parties emerge. They are hyper ideological and that's the only thing that gives them the force and the fuel to be able to emerge in a political system with enough momentum to exist beyond one election cycle."

Podhoretz ([12:10]) reflects on the uniqueness of American political parties compared to parliamentary systems:

"Our parties are coalitions from the get-go... what you had in the 1930s and 1940s... the nature of the American political experiment is we have a horror of parties."

Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Next Four Years

Best Case Scenarios

Matthew Continetti ([16:14]) outlines his vision for the next four years:

"Inflation is tamed while incomes continue to rise, the southern border is secure, and we do something about antisemitism on our college campuses and we restore American deterrence for a more peaceful world."

Seth Mandel ([16:40]) humorously shares his best and worst cases:

"Best case scenario of the next four years is one Jets Super Bowl... my worst case scenario is the status quo for them."

Abe Greenwald ([17:54]) concurs with Matthew's points and adds a desire for improved leadership conduct:

"Less performative, less maximalist... Trump seems to be less in fighting mode. Perhaps if that were to hold, it might have a cascading effect."

Christine Rosen ([18:46]) wishes for a depoliticized culture:

"Politics recedes a little bit from daily life for most Americans... just a lot less politics, a lot less culture war is my best case scenario."

Worst Case Scenarios

Matthew Continetti ([24:33]) warns of escalating global conflicts:

"Worst case scenario is that we are actually in the beginning of World War Three... America becomes involved in a shooting war... and Possibly Taiwan as well."

He advocates for strengthening America through defense spending, targeted military actions, and energy independence to prevent such outcomes.

Christine Rosen ([26:01]) echoes concerns about aggressive actions from global adversaries:

"That all the stress testing that China has been doing of the United States over the past 10 years ceases and they act in a decisive and aggressive, hostile way for which we must respond."

Abe Greenwald ([26:33]) fears unforeseen paradigm-shifting events:

"Some huge paradigm shifting event or eruption that would completely catch the civilized world flat footed."

Seth Mandel ([27:17]) raises alarms about domestic political violence and the erosion of the nation-state system:

"We've encouraged the collapse of the nation state system... mini states act like states... there's no such thing as Lebanon... a boiling frog situation where things just start dissolving."

John Podhoretz ([29:03]) shares a personal fear of rising domestic violence:

"The assassination of Brian Johnson... heading into a period of domestic political violence... the Democratic Party... preparing to serve as an apologia machine for a world in which leftist revolutionaries... are defended or supported in their criminal actions."

He draws parallels to the political turmoil of the 1970s, emphasizing the severity of current threats.

Matthew Continetti ([31:24]) recommends counteracting this trend by disseminating Gary Saul Morson's literature to combat ideological extremism.

A Lighthearted Interlude: 1970s Sitcoms and Christmas Movies

After tackling heavy political topics, the panel shifts to lighter subjects, bringing a touch of nostalgia.

Favorite 1970s Sitcoms

John Podhoretz ([34:27]) nominates The Odd Couple as his favorite 70s sitcom, praising its personal significance despite acknowledging there might be more artistically acclaimed shows.

Matthew Continetti ([34:16]) counters by suggesting The Office for its portrayal of American workplace dynamics, highlighting its cultural significance for future generations.

Abe Greenwald ([41:05]) and Matthew Continetti ([42:00]) discuss Steven Spielberg versus Billy Wilder, with Continetti lauding Spielberg as Hollywood's greatest filmmaker, while Podhoretz prefers Wilder's cynicism and depth.

Die Hard: A Christmas Movie?

Christine Rosen ([44:34]) confidently declares:

"Of course it's a Christmas movie. Nakatomi Plaza is decorated. It's absolutely a Christmas movie."

Matthew Continetti ([44:46]) credits his colleague Sonny Bunch for popularizing the debate:

"My friend Sonny Bunch... one of the world's greatest trolls... he invented trolldom at its best."

Seth Mandel ([46:33]) humorously asserts:

"A hot dog is a Christmas sandwich."

The panel unanimously agrees that Die Hard qualifies as a Christmas movie, blending humor with cultural commentary.

Conclusion

As the episode wraps up, John Podhoretz reflects on the discussions, underscoring the complex interplay between political realignment and cultural identity. The panel's insights provide listeners with a comprehensive understanding of current political dynamics, potential future challenges, and a reminder of the enduring influence of cultural touchstones like 1970s sitcoms.

For more insightful discussions and a diverse range of topics, tune into The Commentary Magazine Podcast available on Ricochet.com.

Notable Quotes:

• Christine Rosen ([02:02]): "We haven't had a new party sort of form and challenge the two existing ones and reshape our political system..."

• Matthew Continetti ([03:32]): "The reddening of the south is never clearer than in the 2024 results where you see Florida... becoming deep red."

• Seth Mandel ([11:58]): "Third parties... are hyper ideological and that's the only thing that gives them the force and the fuel to be able to emerge..."

• Christine Rosen ([18:46]): "A lot less politics, a lot less culture war is my best case scenario."

• John Podhoretz ([29:03]): "Heading into a period of domestic political violence of a sort that we really have not seen in half a century."

This summary encapsulates the key discussions from the episode, providing a clear and comprehensive overview for those who haven't listened while preserving the essence and notable moments of the conversation.