AI Optimism and Macro Skepticism With Dan Ives & Neil Dutta

Summary

The Compound and Friends: "AI Optimism and Macro Skepticism"

With Dan Ives & Neil Dutta
Date: December 17, 2025
Host: Michael Batnick (with guests Dan Ives and Neil Dutta)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into two headline themes:

1. AI Optimism — Tech analyst Dan Ives breaks down why he sees the AI revolution as just getting started, pushing back against bubble fears and outlining bullish theses on Tesla, OpenAI, and Oracle.
2. Macro Skepticism — Economist Neil Dutta offers a more cautious reading of the economy, questioning labor market strength, warning of a possible policy mistake by the Fed, and dissecting the structural imbalances behind the current expansion.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AI Buildout and Tech Bull Market

• Dan Ives' Central Thesis: The AI revolution is in its very early stages — “year three of an eight to ten year build out.”
  • Only 3% of U.S. companies have meaningfully adopted AI so far (05:13).
  • $3 to $4 trillion will be spent on AI infrastructure globally in the next two to three years (06:51).
  • U.S. is now ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years thanks to companies like OpenAI, Palantir, and Nvidia (10:45).
• Bubble Fears in AI:
  • Concerns about astronomical business model valuations (especially OpenAI, Oracle) are early — “we are at the centerpiece of what’s going to be a decade-long buildout” (08:30).
  • Ives likens current doubts to historic misgivings about the iPhone, Microsoft cloud, or Netflix’s pivot from DVDs — “short sighted” (10:18).

Notable Quote:

"My perspective is it's the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech... because of OpenAI." — Dan Ives (10:45)

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2. OpenAI, Oracle, and the AI Stack

• OpenAI’s Place in the Ecosystem:
  • Dan Ives is unequivocal — OpenAI is central, and companies betting with OpenAI (e.g., Oracle) are wise (08:30).
  • On valuation drawdowns: “If [OpenAI] dropped 40%... I’d be buying hand over fist” (10:12).
  • Business model will be multifaceted like Amazon/Google/Microsoft — enterprise, ads, APIs, consumer plans (08:30).
• Oracle’s "Bubble Barometer" Concerns:
  • Oracle’s debt and capex expansion frightens headline writers, but Ives argues the future demand fully supports it (15:12).
  • Market skepticism seen as healthy; lack of euphoria is “a governor on the market” (14:02).
  • “The stock’s basically telling you here, 60-80% of that never happens — I’ll make that bet any day of the week to buy Oracle here” (15:12).
  • Dismisses free cash flow negativity as investors “always fret until the success is shown” (17:02).

Notable Quote:

“Calling it a bubble now is like calling a bubble from a New York City office building, not seeing the demand in a fab in Taiwan.” — Dan Ives (09:23)

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3. Tesla: AI, Autonomy, and Robotics

• AI as the True Growth Driver:
  • Tesla’s current rally is entirely about upcoming autonomous and robotics projects, not car sales (19:52).
  • By 2026: Robotaxis in 30 cities, full-scale humanoid robot production ("Optimus") — “The physical AI plays are Nvidia and Tesla” (19:52).
  • 20% of cars will be autonomous in the next 3-4 years; future kids may never need a driver’s license (18:41).
  • Tesla’s margin profile shifting from capex-heavy manufacturing to software-driven, high-margin autonomous services (21:17).

Notable Quote:

“An 8-year-old today won’t need a driver’s license when they’re 16.” — Dan Ives (18:41)

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4. SpaceX, XAI, and the "Musk Empire"

• Halo Effect: The pending public listing of SpaceX isn’t a threat to Tesla; in fact, it strengthens Musk’s entire “empire” (26:09).
• Interlocks: Ives foresees Tesla owning pieces of SpaceX and XAI, possibly via future offerings (26:45).
• Data Centers in Space: Both host and guest believe data centers in space will be reality “in the next 4-5 years” (27:28).

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5. The Macro View: Labor Market, AI Impact, and Recession Watch

Neil Dutta brings skepticism to the “everything is awesome” narrative —

• Labor Market Weakness:
  • Housing already in recession, consumer and labor both “closing in on recession like dynamics” (29:01).
  • All private sector job growth concentrated in healthcare; “we’re running on one engine right now” (35:48).
  • Once unemployment rises for several months, it tends to keep rising: “Unemployment rate is inertial” (35:48).
• AI’s Economic Distortion:
  • AI buildout is responsible for about half of GDP growth, but investment is unsustainably imbalanced (38:14).
  • Nonresidential construction (like data centers) buoying employment, while residential construction is glutting (37:26).
  • AI boom crowds out residential investment, may drive up household utility costs and compress consumer spending (38:30).

Notable Quote:

“It’s really hard to see how it’s sustainable to have an economy this imbalanced...the AI buildout is probably crowding out residential investment.” — Neil Dutta (38:30)

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6. Fed Outlook and Policy Risk

• Possible Policy Mistake:
  • Dutta argues it’s crazy to still be debating rate cuts while key drivers of “sticky inflation” (wages, shelter, energy) are all decelerating (35:13).
  • The Fed “risks falling behind the curve”—by not responding quickly to rising unemployment (54:11).
• Fed Succession—Who's Next?
  • Prediction markets now favor Chris Waller after a WSJ scoop; Dutta praises Waller as a consensus builder and thought leader (44:03).
  • Skeptical of Kevin Warsh, seeing him as perennially hawkish and ill-suited to argue for cuts (47:18).
• Powell may stick around even after his chair term is up unless a strong successor is named (45:49).

Notable Quote:

"It's really about your power of persuasion at the Fed...you can't just go in there like guns blazing." — Neil Dutta (44:31)

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7. Consumer Spending and Structural Risks

• Consumption Rarely Leads Downturns:
  • Dutta: “There’s never been a business cycle…where consumer spending turns down in front of the economic slump” (30:50).
  • Wages are slowing, layoffs are ticking up—predicts growing strain on spending in 2026 (40:16, 43:32).

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8. Economic Outlook and Skepticism

• 7 out of 10 Concern Level: Dutta puts his “risk thermometer” at a cautious 7-8/10 (“if 10 is GFC and 0 is the 90s”) warning on thin ice if unemployment rises (52:53).
• Watch for Leading Employment Indicators:
  • Positive signs would be hours worked expanding and jobs growth broadening beyond health care (52:15).

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Memorable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Dan Ives on AI Buildout Reality:
  “Somebody like myself that liked Apple 2008... iPhone’s only going to be a one-year cycle...short sighted... My perspective is it’s the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech... because of OpenAI.” (10:18 – 10:45)
• On Skepticism Around AI Companies:
  “Calling it a bubble now is like calling a bubble from a New York City office building, not seeing the demand in a fab in Taiwan.” (09:23)
• On Tesla’s Future:
  “An 8-year-old today won’t need a driver’s license when they’re 16.” (18:41)
• Neil Dutta on Macro Risks:
  “It’s really hard to see how it’s sustainable to have an economy this imbalanced...the AI buildout is probably crowding out residential investment.” (38:30)
• On Fed Succession:
  "It's really about your power of persuasion at the Fed...you can't just go in there like guns blazing." (44:31)
• On Market Optimism vs. Reality:
  "My view, frankly, is that stocks tend to be a better discounting mechanism at the lows, not necessarily at the highs.” (30:50)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:09 – Dan Ives joins: AI exposure, OpenAI, and Oracle discussion begins
• 05:13 – How early are we in the AI buildout?
• 10:45 – US ahead of China in tech for the first time in decades
• 14:02 – Oracle’s debt and market skepticism
• 18:41 – Autonomous vehicles & “no more driver’s licenses”
• 19:52 – Tesla’s robotics/AI future, not car business, is key
• 26:09 – SpaceX’s effect on Tesla, Musk’s conglomerate vision
• 28:34 – Neil Dutta joins: jobs report, labor market dynamics
• 33:01 – Housing, manufacturing, consumer heat map analysis
• 35:13 – Discussion on the Fed’s potential mistakes
• 38:30 – AI’s crowd-out effects on the broader economy
• 44:03 – Who will be the next Fed Chair? Waller, Warsh, and leadership qualities
• 47:18 – Critique of Kevin Warsh; Fed credibility discussions
• 52:15 – Leading indicators for economic turnaround
• 52:53 – Neil’s risk assessment (7/10)

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Tone & Style Captured

• Dan Ives: Bullish, anecdotal, often humorous, very optimistic on AI’s multi-year horizon (“The human rainbow stick,” “Peter Luger steaks in the freezer”).
• Neil Dutta: Data-driven but skeptical, nuanced, quick to cite both historical precedent and the weirdness of the current cycle; pragmatic about forecasting errors.

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Conclusion

This episode offers a lively, informed debate between AI optimists and macro skeptics. Dan Ives makes an emphatic bull case for the continuing AI/tech supercycle — urging investors to look past “bubble” jitters and embrace multi-trillion dollar AI infrastructure spend. Meanwhile, Neil Dutta urges listeners to pay attention to a labor market at risk, loose ends in the consumer story, and the possible consequences of Fed hesitation. The discussion is rapid, insightful, and packed with telling analogies, memorable sound bites, and market wisdom.

Ideal For: Listeners interested in the intersection of cutting-edge technology investing, macroeconomic cycles, and policy—delivered with equal parts conviction and caution.

Transcript

[A]

Hello and welcome to another episode of what are your thoughts? My name is Michael Batnick and today I am joined by the legend, the goat, Dan Ives. We get into Tesla's all time high. Did you know Tesla had an all time high? I didn't. Did today close on an all time high? We talk about Oracle, the bubble barometer as it's being referred to in some circles. Not these circles, but in some circles. Then later in the show I am joined by my friend Neil Dutta. We get into the state of the economy, the jobs report today, and finally, who will be the next head of our Federal Reserve. I want to thank Van Neck for sponsoring tonight's show. Hope you enjoy it, it was a good one.

[B]

Welcome to the compound. And friends, all opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnik and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Redholtz Wealth Management. This podcast for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

[A]

All right, let's go. It is Tuesday, it's 5 o' clock on the east coast. What's up everybody? How we doing? I am very excited today have two special guests that are going to be joining us. Josh is down south with our crew in New Orleans, so I'm holding down the Ford. Tonight we have Dan Ives. Great timing. We are going to be talking about Tesla. Tesla is making a new all time high and Dan's bullish so we're going to talk about his bull case for Tesla where they go with autonomous and robotics and all that sort of good stuff. We'll talk SpaceX, AI and the like. And then after I let Dan go, our friend Neil daughter is going to be joining us talking about the labor market. We got an NFP report today. It's been a minute, I think we skipped the last one. No big deal, who cares? And we'll talk about the Fed and what's going on there. But first a word from our sponsors. Today's show is brought to you by Vaneck. We talk about the hyperscalers every week. You know the story. Massive Capex budgets and the race for AI dominance. But picking the single winner in the semiconductor space is getting harder. That's why you look at the Vanex semiconductor ETF ticker. Smh, you know it, smh. That gives you the entire ecosystem the names including Nvidia, tsmc, Broadcom, the companies actually receiving those billions in Capex. The industry has matured, it's not just cyclical anymore. It's about supply discipline and pricing power. Instead of betting on just one chip stock to rule them all, just on the leaders, check out [e-mail] smh compound. All right. Is my audio on? Is Dan Ives here? Let's go. Let's get him in. Dan Ives, where you at?

[C]

Great to be here.

[A]

Perfect. I hear you. I was freaking out for a second.

[C]

And thanks for wearing the shirt.

[A]

Right. How do I look?

[C]

You do. You look good no matter what you're wearing. But that sure, man. Looks money. Love it.

[A]

We got the back, too. That's beautiful. All right, Dan, you're looking good today as. As you always are. The human rainbow stick. I want to start here.

[C]

And this is my. So this should be the sport. This is the I sports jacket. So you'll be able to buy that soon.

[A]

Where. Where do people buy your stuff?

[C]

So, Dan ivesclothing.com that's the collab that I do with snow Milk. You know, Austin's on at Brooklyn. And then this will be the sports jacket.

[A]

Okay. I love it. That might be over my line, but the T sh. The polo. I can write the polo. All right, Dad, I want to start here with this open AI chart. So I saw Deirdre Bosa post this two, three weeks ago. So we recreated it. I think she pulled that from Morgan Stanley. So I want to give credit to the chart because we pulled it from somebody else, but we updated it, so. Danielle, turn on, please. Come on, let's go. Chart on. All right. For those listening, we are showing the OpenAI exposed stocks versus Google exposed infrastructure basket. And what's in the OpenAI basket is Oracle AMD, Microsoft, Nvidia Core. We've been softbank. And in the Google basket, it's. It's the other names, Google, Broadcom, and I don't know what those other ones are, but whatever, they're there. So, Dan, my question to you is this, like. And the red dot is. Sam Altman appeared on the podcast was a little bit. A little bit cagey. Brad Gerstner asked, trot off, please. Brad Gerstner asked him a question, like, about the funding obligations and the revenue. And he said, listen, Brad, I'll buy your stock. I'll find you a buyer. And people are like, that's a little bit weird. And so, boom. Correction. So I want to ask you this. The comments obviously changed their narrative. They just did. But when we zoom out and we fast forward and we're looking back, did it change the story?

[C]

It does. I mean like look, 3% of companies have gone down the AI path in the US today, zero in Europe, zero if you've met Asia x China, less than 1% Middle east sovereigns just starting. Look, I get how the comments, the circular finance and the concerns, right? Look at Oracle as a good example. But I mean Mike, I mean you've talked for years, this is year three of an eight to ten year build out and OpenAI is going to play an integral role in terms of that stack getting built out. I just think when we look at this chart a year from now that OpenAI really I believe those are names that I would better get bet for relative to where I see everything.

[A]

Freudian slip 48 you're about to say bet against.

[C]

Look, this is the reality is people are betting against them but I think it's the opposite because if you look, look the data center build out today you have more data centers under construction and active data centers.

[A]

Wow.

[C]

So when you think about the role OpenAI is going to play and the role Oracle is going to play and the role AMD and obviously Godfather Veg and Nvidia. Look Google's been one of our top pick come into the year, you know along obviously with Palantir, Microsoft and a few others and Nvidia and go back to the sentiment. So just go back to sentiment on Google gen 1st 2025 they're going to get broken up New York City cab drivers bearish on it. AI is going to, you know, it's going to, it's going to change the whole search model that now celebrated. I'm just trying to give examples of like we are. You have what, 3 to 4 trillion that's going to be spent in the next two to three years.

[A]

The narratives change fast. So all right, so, so two things can be true. Number one, it is very early to talk about OpenAI's model and meaning not, not their, not their LLM, I mean like their business model and say oh they're only doing this much revenue. It's like wait a minute, they don't know what their business model is going to be. This is a very early conversation to look at the numbers and extrapolate anything. Okay, that's true. But it is also true that when you are valued at half a trillion dollars and when, when Oracle has a commitment from you for 5 billion for 5 years and $300 billion it is fair to ask, yeah, your business model might be like but these are astronomical numbers. Where's the money going to come from? What is your Business model. Like those two things can coexist at the same time. So like what do you say about that?

[C]

What I say is, is that you're in the fourth industrial revolution. You're just going into the build out today. I mean you're gonna go like I said, 3 to 4 trillion next few years. You, you actually, if you fast forward, you go out five, seven years, you're talking what, eight, $10 trillion being spent. What percentage open AI. You know, it's not just from the.

[A]

LLMs, but that's on the bill, that's on the build out. Like what does the revenue model look like? Is OpenAI going to start? Um, is, is, is the $200 tier going to be $50 and everybody's gonna have access to it? Is it, is it ads, is it enterprise deals? Like what is the monetization mechanism?

[C]

I, I believe it's all the above. I mean I think that's why what they're doing on the stack, it's, it's, it's gonna be, it's an Amazon model, it's a Google model, it's a Microsoft model. Already there's parts of that almost Palantir ish in terms of how they're going after the enterprise and eventually on. But OpenAI is not going to sit there today and say, okay, just put us in the LLM category. That's what we're doing. They're viewing this as like, look, we are in the beginning of what's going to be a decade long build out and we're at the centerpiece of that. We're going to make bet. You talk about Oracle, Oracle making a bet on OpenAI and that's the right bet. You want to be associated with OpenAI, you do not not want to be associated with them because they're at the centerpiece. But I could go years and be like, you don't want to be associated with Palantir, you don't want to be associated with Google. There were a lot of disputes about Microsoft and what ultimately that, that open AI relationship look like and look where it is today. So my point is, is that I see the deployments, we see the demand and demands 12 to 1 demand and supply. So to call that a bubble I just view as that's someone 30th for New York City office building in a spreadsheet call in a bubble, not seeing what demand looks like in a fab in Taiwan.

[A]

So I know you were traveling the globe, I want to ask you about it, but so I think I know the Answer to this question. Let's assume that OpenAI was a publicly traded stock and let's assume that its stock dropped 40% from 500 billion to 300 billion. I think that's a fair guess. I assume based on your comments that you would be buying Handover Fist or.

[C]

I would drop coverage of it if I covered it and I buy in.

[A]

My PA that bullish.

[C]

I mean that just because it goes back somebody like myself that like Apple 2008 iPhone's only going to be a one year cycle given the financial crisis. Why would anyone go away from a BlackBerry? You know, short sighted. Nadella. 2014 takes over. No way Microsoft's going to be a cloud player especially he's an internal candidate. Jensen, why are you spending so much on AI 2021, 2022, you're a gaming.

[A]

Company, remember Facebook monetizing mobile? Can they do it?

[C]

No. Net Netflix. That is ridiculous. Stock down 50%. Why do you actually go to D away from DVDs at your core? Like. Look, all I'm just saying is that my perspective is it's the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech Guy, from my whole, like my whole. There were so many times throughout my career, you know, I'll sit there, be in Taiwan, see everything happen 18 hours a day. China land in Newark airport, there's a fistfight, Dunkin Donuts and you're like man, us, there's a reason we're 17th in math now. First time in 30 years us is ahead of China when it comes to tech because of the godfather of Aigens and because of OpenAI because of my, because of Carp and Palantir. So I'm just one like there's two more years in this tech bull market. I just to say it's a bubble is so wrong relative to only 3% of companies in the US have even gone down the AI path.

[A]

Well, I'm inclined to agree with your taste. I was actually fist pounding this today on Microsoft as an example to use the proxy for the market that we're in. If you look at Microsoft divided by the S and P on a relative basis, it's gone nowhere since April 2023. The launch of ChatGPT was November 2022. So this was the closest proxy to it and the stock has gone sideways relative to the market this so all right, let's talk about Oracle. Oracle. There was an, there was a headline in Bloomberg or a big article at Bloomberg. Oracle's 300 billion dollar AI bet has fast become A bubble barometer. By the way, I tried to buy the dip in Oracle. I sold it for a 10% loss the day that earnings reported. I spoke on this last week. So just an update for the listeners. 10% loss. Whatever happens, no harm, no foul. The story here is it's the debt. So we've got a chart the net debt versus the earnings and I want to read you. So for people that are listening, the net debt is just. It just skyrocketed. Like obviously it was way below earnings for basically ever went vertical. It's now 5x the earnings. And I want to read a quote from the CFO on the earnings call. Investors did not like the earnings call. Okay. Our full year. This is the CFO or the principal financial officer. The Our full year fiscal year 26 revenue expectation and this is like their third quarter fiscal. Their fiscal years are weird. So it's not the calendar year. Our full year fiscal year 26 revenue expectation of 66, $67 billion remains unchanged. Okay. However, given the added RPO this quarter which is remaining performance obligations, you could explain that to us, Dan. That can be monetized quickly. Starting next year we now expect fiscal 2026 capex will be about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1. These are not small numbers. And the market and I love it and I think you, you got to love it too. Like there was a governor on the market. Like the investors are saying we don't want a bubble. So I love the price action even though I don't love selling the stock for a loss. I love that people are not acting euphoric about the stock.

[C]

But let's just. So we just forget headlines what the stocks doing after the quarter. Okay. Because I think it's very easy to get caught up sometimes then. And it changes, you know I think it changes the narrative in terms of, in terms of rpa. Just very simply when you think about like the deal flow that they've booked in the future that now they have to ultimately get done in the future. Okay. So it's deals that they've done and now they have to execute on 69 billion this quarter. Last quarter was like over 300 billion. Obviously open AI was associated with it. Then you go back, it was 33 billion 50. If you go back like 5, 6/4 it was 2 billion.

[A]

Now it's like 450 for the next few months or something crazy.

[C]

I'm just trying to explain. You can't just look. So let's just go through some of the math you're like, revenue growth doesn't even look that strong this quarter. Revenue growth is going to go from 17% to 33%. These are fiscal years to 48%.

[A]

But the market doesn't believe it.

[C]

But, but, but I'm just, I'm saying I understand but like what I'm telling you is that what given all the demand we see and more data centers under construction, active data centers and what we see on demand for chips, for Nvidia and even Meta can't get enough. So they got to go TPU with Google. I'm telling you that's not just going to happen. That's probably conservative relative to where I think that's ultimately going to end there for Oracle as well as other tech. So to me, I'll make the bet. Even if you put a 20 discount on that and say they're not going to be able to get 20% that done, they're not, they're just not gonna have the capacity. The stock's basically telling you here. I'm basically saying 60, 70, 80% of that never happens. Guess what? Like I'll make that bet any day of the week to buy Oracle here relative to what I view as the stack, their install base, the RPO and weather position.

[A]

All right, I'm buying it back tomorrow.

[C]

But to that point, okay, you're like, well, betting on OpenAI is bad. That's like me being like, dude, I ate too much Peter Luger's steak. I have too much, I have too much Peter Luger's in the freezer. Here's the thing, you go White Castle, I'll go, Peter Luger's in the freezer and I'll bet on. And that's my view of OpenAI.

[A]

Okay, last chart for you. Market did not like this one either. Oracle's quarterly free cash flow. I mean this is gnarly shit. It was negative a lot, many, many more than $10 billion. Not good. So you think that the market is being short sighted. The market is not believing that those remaining performance implications are going to be filled and the market is wrong.

[C]

It's because look, it comes down. Like think about meta after the quarter, right after the quarter, like free cash flow goes down. Eps, they ramp up. Capex negative. Everyone took META stock down. I want to see Zucker's wartime CEO. It's 3 billion users. How are you going to monetize the AI revolution? The point is it always comes down to at the time, investors fret after when the success has shown. Like, so glad they spent when they needed to. Right. I mean it goes back to go back to the Nvidia conference calls in 2022. The questions why you spend? What do you do? You're a gaming. Did that work out? No, I'm just trying to explain like at the time it's easy to see that I could care less about free cash over the next quarter. My view is we're in year three of any ten year build up. We have a tech bull market next two years are there going to be things Deep Seek Liberation Day. Like somehow looking at CDS spreads on Oracle bonds. There will always be different conspiracy or different negative. But I always say the bears, when they're in their caves, they can see AI in the spreadsheets and they'll continue to get proven wrong as this plays out in 2026.

[A]

For the record, I am with you. I do not think that it's a bubble. I think that there are obviously always areas to point to where you say, well that doesn't make sense. Okay, fine, but, but those examples aside, I think zooming out, I think the spend is real, I think the monetization will come and I think the bears will look wrong.

[C]

Well, but, but also just think about it like autonomous is just starting. 20% of car, like 20% of cars are going to be autonomous next three to four years and just like humanoid robots just start like it just speaks to my view like how early an 8 year old today won't need a driver's license when they're 16.

[A]

So what a wild year for Tesla. Close at an all time high today. I had no idea frankly before I looked at it that it was on this massive run over the last couple of weeks. So Tesla had a hell of a year. The stock was down 45. Chart on please. The stock was down 45% like year to date through May. I mean the stock based stock got cut in half effectively in a couple of months. Really ugly. And then a hell of a turnaround. The stock is now up 19% on the year again, all time high. All right, the, the car business kind of, who cares about it? I mean obviously like that got us here, it's not going to get us there. Nobody's buying the stock today at an all time high expecting that the car business is going to be a great business. So what even drives the stock today? Why is the stock at an all time high right now?

[C]

Because it's the autonomous and robotics future is now in the doorstep. That age is here. The AI revolution now at Tesla, what that basically means is that when you look at True Autonomous in 2026 we're going to see robotaxis in 30 cities, we're going to see full scale production of cybercad, we're going to see true build out of Optimus in terms of humanoid robotics. That's finally here. So every investor that's looking at Tesla. Yeah, you went through some dark periods this year with brand issues, Doge, everything we saw with MUS deliveries. But Musk got through that. That political obviously is in the background. And now wartime CEO focused on taking Tesla into the AI revolution chapter. And I don't believe there's a bet the two best physical AI plays in the market are Nvidia and Tesla. And now you're going to see that AI valuation come through.

[A]

The past couple of weeks Uber stock has been under pressure. I assume that's the autonomous vehicles driving that. Let me ask you this question, is this a good business? Like okay, they're going to be in 30 cities, is that going to, is it going to be a profitable business or again, does that not matter?

[C]

No, I'd argue given the profitability in what's really a software driven business, from FSD to autonomous margins, I mean we think core numbers go up 4x over the next three to four years in terms of EPS earnings, in terms of free cash. Because the view is that a car business, in the most capex intensive business there is, you're now essentially going into a software driven technology model that's built through autonomous as well as Optimus, the home business mod. The whole margin profile is going to change.

[A]

Are the cars that are on the road the same cars as like the regular Teslas or are these completely different vehicles?

[C]

No, I mean they're the same one. I mean obviously like it's about the software in there, right? Like in other words, like it's about true full self driving technology. Today less than 15% of Teslas subscribe to FSD. We think you actually get over 50% that's pure software margins.

[A]

So if somebody, if somebody like bought a Tesla a year ago, like are they going to be able to turn this on with their car or is that not how it's going to work?

[C]

No, it's like they're going to be able to turn in if they want to put into the network, but then the cyber cabs that are going to be built, those are specifically for the robo taxi service.

[A]

So let's say that somebody has a Tesla and they're like this is incredible. I never, I could work while I drive I could whatever, watch whatever I want to do. Is it like all right, for $99 a month you got FSD. Like how does it work?

[C]

Well it's going to be FSD that you're going to pay. But the biggest thing too is, is that when you think about how the network's going to get built out, you're going to be at work and technically your Tesla could be picking up rides, getting paid and then the car returns your driveway.

[A]

I think that's going to be. I don't. Who's going to want that you be.

[C]

I'm just, I'm telling you that when you think about the future and how Tesla's building this, there's true cyber cabs and that's going to be the vast majority. But when you look at FSD and the network effect and what they're building, that's like they're building it for optionality for anyone that buys a Tesla in the future.

[A]

All right, let's throw this next shot up. Tesla earnings expectations. So you're not alone. Analysts are bullish up until the right through the end of the decade. Do you think that most of this is going to come through the vehicles? How much are the robots going to like? From what I see and I know I don't know anything so I'm obviously excited to ask you this. How far away are robots like shut off please? Actually being in our house, I'm sure they're in the factories already but like.

[C]

I are only 27 really like in.

[A]

At scale or not.

[C]

But I mean scale, we've said 28, 29 but like we are within the next three to four years autonomous humanoid.

[A]

Robots like for real in our house. Doing what?

[C]

Like folding household duties. You go away. Remember those are basically human brains. Right. If you really think about it from a chip perspective.

[A]

But isn't this so much more complicated than driving? Like there's, there's 37,000 household chores like cleaning out like that they're going to be able to do that.

[C]

That's look, when you think about like optimist, I mean there's some Tesla bulls that will say Optimus is going to be bigger than autonomous. So when you ask why the stock's in an all time high, it's because the view that Tesla at scale from a global scale perspective with musk is going to, I mean I could argue, you could say Tesla could be the biggest AI play period in the market over the coming year. Especially when they also will own XAI and pieces of that.

[A]

Okay, so that Brings us to the last part of this conversation. O SpaceX. $800 billion valuation. That's what they're targeting. So part of the bull case for Tesla has always been Elon, Right? Like, he is. He is the engine that drives this car. Is there enough room in the market for another vehicle for Elon devotees to express their enthusiasm? Like, we've got the. Is it a trillion and a half, whatever Tesla is. I don't know. Exactly. And also SpaceX, like, is SpaceX coming public potentially bearish for Tesla? Is there enough in the market for two Mega Cap Ellens?

[C]

Yeah, well, I think it actually creates more of the halo effect around Musk. I mean, because my view is that with SpaceX obviously solving a whole nother problem. But look, the view also is that Musk's empire eventually is probably going to be a holding structure where there's SpaceX, Tesla XAI and everything else. But I don't view this in any way. Negative. I also think Tesla is going to have a piece of SpaceX. Like, Tesla will own a piece of SpaceX and a piece of Xai. How Xai they're going to be able to invest in from a private perspective. And then when you look at SpaceX, I think Tesla investors would want some exposure to SpaceX. And I believe, you know, through offerings or other capabilities, I believe that they will, by the end of next year, Tesla will have an ownership in SpaceX. That. That's our being.

[A]

Okay, last question. Gavin Baker was on Patrick o' Shaughnessy's podcast. He was the only one that said this. I think Elon might have said this, actually, but I was like, huh, yeah, sure, why not? I'm talking about data centers in outer space. Yeah, it's happening.

[C]

Oh, it's. I mean, I got, you know, I talked to many within the industry and that's another one. Like, that's not. That's gonna. It's a matter of, like, when scale, does the business model work, how big, like, what timing looks like. But yeah, I don't. I view it's a matter of when, not if. That. That will be something that we'll be talking about in the next, you know, four to five years.

[A]

All right. And that's.

[C]

Yeah, but, yeah, but I think it's a great way to close. Because look.

[A]

Yeah, no, that'll be the top. This is a great way to close.

[C]

No, because. Because look, you talk about all this and then how could you go back to them being like, I'm just being. It's a bubble. It's Chat gbt. No, it's. This is the beginning year three of an eight to ten year build out.

[A]

I hope so. I'm here for it. All right. Dan, you're the best. Thanks for doing this. I appreciate you.

[C]

Thanks so much.

[A]

All right, man, be good. Okay. The great Dan Ives, everybody. What an absolute legend. Always love talking to him. All right, next, our friend Neil Dada. Welcome him in. Get him in here. Neil, what's up man?

[D]

How's it going, Michael, how are you? Hanging in there? Tonight.

[A]

We'Re going to do it. Okay. I think so too. So this is a perfect day to have you here. We, we got some data from the government. It's been a minute, but we heard about the labor market. So how's the economy, Neal? How are we doing?

[D]

Well, it depends who you talk to.

[A]

I'm talking to you.

[D]

I think, look, I still think it's the three buckets. The housing market's in recession. I think the consumer and the labor market's getting worse. But the labor markets appear to be closing in on recession like dynamics. And you have in the background this sort of spectacular AI tech capital spending boom that's going on. So that's still sort of where we are at the margin. I would say the labor markets are getting worse and I think that's the big piece of it because a big sort of thesis for the growth bulls has been consumer spending. Right. Like consumption's been doing well and you know, but ultimately if, if unemployment is going to go up, that means that worker wage growth is going to moderate. And if wages are moderating, that means that consumers don't have the money to go out and spend. And so if they can't spend, that, that sort of undercuts a big thesis that the bulls have been making.

[A]

I know that you're, you're a business economist by trade. You're not necessarily a stock market in the weeds observer like your partners are. But I want to ask you this, maybe like do you think that the market is an accurate representation of what's actually happened? I'll be specific. If you look at a chart of Capital One Financial and Ally Financial, these are two businesses that are very much levered not just to the American Express customer. And that's a great looking chart too. It's the stock market. Are this, these are investors. Wrong. Because these stocks are basically at all time highs and can't take stock market as gossip. But you would think if there's really stress in the aggregate that it would show up in these stocks.

[D]

Yeah, I mean I think, look, I mean, stock markets in my view are a good discounting mechanism. They're not a perfect discounting mechanism. And that would be my only kind of retort to it. I mean, it doesn't, you know, the issue is that if that's going to be the anchor, then there's a risk that the train leaves the station and that's like, oh, look, now the stocks are down. I mean, it's not that. My view frankly is that the stocks tend to be a better discounting mechanism at the lows, not necessarily at the highs. And in terms of the consumer just bringing it back to the economic data that I look at, there's never been a business cycle in all of US economic cycles where consumer spending is actually turned down in front of the economic slump. Like so in front of an economic recession, consumption never actually declines. Sometimes it doesn't even go down during the recession. Like so if you look at 2001, for example, you actually had expanding consumer spending during that period.

[A]

Because Ben keeps asking on the podcast, like, what is going to slow down the consumer from spending? And I know this is sort of circular logic, but it's got to be not just a recession, like a statistical recession. I know the statistical stuff gets wonky, but it has to be like real fear of them losing their job otherwise they're going to keep spending through it a hundred percent.

[D]

I mean, if you go back to. I don't. I mean if you look at like the 90s through the GFC, I don't think we had one quarter where consumer spending actually went down. No, I mean that's, yeah, like a full quarter. Like I, I'd have to go back and look, but it's, it's pretty. Yeah, I mean we had a very, very like extended period of consumer spending during that time.

[A]

We don't stop. All right, I want to. So I grabbed your chart from, from your post high frequency data heat map. What? So we're looking at manufacturing and output, employment, housing, inflation and the consumer. This, this looks like a very mixed picture. What are some of the big takeaways on your end?

[D]

Well, I mean the manufacturing sector is clearly sluggish and I think housing is getting worse, not better. Right. So those are two sort of. That's like the linchpin of the goods producing economy. Right. So like everyone's talking about the big AI data center build out, but if you have less residential construction, I mean, remember my friend Rick Palacios at John Burns has been talking about how builders are going into the new Year with the most completed unsold inventory since 2010. So if they're sitting on more unsold completed units, what does that mean for employment in the residential construction industry? It seems to me like they should focus more on unwinding or getting these sort of homes off their books than actually hiring more people to break ground on new homes. So I think builders are in a more precarious spot. And historically that's been an important tell on the outlook for the economy. A lot of industries, I think, are kind of downstream from housing, but, yeah, I mean, I would just say that. Look, I mean, the risks are clearly building. I mean, here's another thing, Michael. Inflation, right. Oil prices, we know where they are, has collapsed. Home prices are slowing. Right. They're contracting in many parts of the country. I mean, if home prices are declining, then, you know, the, the underlying asset, the cost of renting, the underlying asset is also going to go down. Right. Like, if a home price is going down, it's not like the landlord can come up to you and be like, hey, I'm going to charge you more. And labor cost inflation slowing, like, pretty clearly. I mean, if you look at like quits rates, they're down. The ECI was that number was weak. Average hourly earnings are slowing as unemployment's going up. So when you think about, like, what areas do we think about? When we think about sustained inflationary pressure, it's labor, housing and energy.

[A]

And wages.

[D]

Yeah, labor.

[A]

I'm sorry.

[D]

Right. Those are all.

[A]

So is the Fed, and I'm skipping ahead a bit here, but is there a policy mistake afoot?

[D]

Yes, I think so. I mean, I've been saying that, you know, I think at the end, to me, the fact that we're debating whether or not they might cut in January is a bit ridiculous given what I've just told you.

[A]

Okay, so we'll get to, we'll get to, we'll get to the Fed in a second. I just want to stick with, with the report today. So unemployment turn on, please. So U.S. payrolls rise in November. Okay, that's good. We had a not so pretty October number. Unemployment rate not reported in October, but okay. But it's going up to the right. I'm going to assume that this is. Has you a bit concerned.

[D]

Well, so if you go back historically, Michael, and you look at other periods where the unemployment rate has gone up for like three or four months in a row, typically a year later, it's higher than at that time. Right. So the unemployment rate is inertial. Right. Like once it moves up, it tends to keep moving up. So that's why I'd be concerned about it. Right. Like where we were at 424-344-4445. Now we're at 4 6. I mean that's a very unusual circumstance. And then you have to really tell me, like, why is that stop? Like why does that train stop? It's. For me, it's very challenging to do. We're kind of running on one engine right now with respect to the job market. If you look at the private sector, all of the jobs growth was in the health care industry. It's not a particularly cyclical sector. Everything else was sluggish. I mentioned housing, employment coming under pressure. Manufacturing is pointing down. You look at oil prices, do you think it makes sense for oil drillers to be hiring mining workers right now?

[A]

New multi year low today in crude. Daniel, let's throw this NFP chart up, please. So, all right, we've got monthly change in NFP by industry, broken down by education and health services leading the charge. Next, Construction, which I don't know is noteworthy given what you just said, Neil, Professional business services next. And on the other side we've got leisure and hospitality, which I find interesting. Shedding 12,000 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities. Like what inside the report was most interesting to you?

[D]

Well, I think that construction piece was interesting because it sort of speaks to this idea that Dan was probably talking about earlier. There's this massive data center buildout that's putting upward pressure on non residential construction employment. And that's really where it's coming from. If you look at specialty trade contractors as an example, residential contractors keep going down, but there's been a meaningful offset from a full offset, frankly from non residential construction. Now we'll see if that continues because we do know that the rate of growth in spending is likely to moderate next year. But that's. That to me is interesting and I would just say that there's probably more risk to the residential piece of that going forward because, you know, builders are frankly sitting on too many workers relative to what they're, what they're doing.

[A]

I forget the exact number, but let's say this is directionally right. Artificial intelligence spend is responsible for half of GDP growth this year. Is that sustainable? Like, can those Dynamics persistent through 2026?

[D]

I mean, it's really hard to see how it. I mean, I think there's a bit of a debate over how much the number is. I mean, this is sort of like a, a geeky, wonky kind of econ nerd fest, like how much of that are we importing and, and how much growth would we have in the absence of AI? But yeah, I don't, I mean, I would just say, no, it's not sustainable to have an economy this imbalanced. I think that's like, that's the simplest answer. At some level, like the AI buildout is probably crowding out residential investment and to some extent maybe consumer spending because it's, it's putting some, some sort of demands on the electrical grid and that might be pushing up household utility costs. Right. So, yeah, I don't think it's, I don't think it's sustainable.

[A]

What about the, The Atlanta now GDP stuff that is showing under 4%, I think, for the most recent quarter, is that you think that's wildly optimistic?

[D]

Well, I mean, I think, I think the latest number was like for the third quarter. Right. I don't know that it's being updated yet, and I have to go back and take a look. But I would just say that the main story before the government shutdown was this massive disconnect between gdp, which has been strong, and employment, which has in week that historically reconciles by GDP kind of going towards employment. Right. I don't think productivity is like 4%. Right. So there has to be, you can't be growing that quickly or employment should be a lot stronger. Like, that's sort of how this has to work out. You can't have the economy growing at 4% with total hours worked in the economy basically flat.

[A]

What are clients asking you or what are you hearing or seeing from companies about their plans for labor? Because the AI story and where productivity comes in is this like more of, hey, we don't need to do as much hiring as we thought in 26 or we actually don't need as many people as we thought. Let's get rid of them.

[D]

It's been spotty. I mean, I think you could, you could probably detect some modest increase in layoff announcements. If you look at corporate earnings, earnings commentary. You know, we saw, for example, Verizon lay off a bunch of workers. You know, I think was it PNG earlier in the year? So I think at the margin, like layoff announcements have been going up. When I look at things like warn notices, those are worker adjustment and retraining notifications. Right. So these are like little slips that they have to send out if they plan to shut a factory or lay people off. Those have been going up. So that tends to lead unemployment. So I would say at the margin, like the Unemployment news from the corporate earnings commentary has been getting worse. Clearly there are some industries that are more at risk than others. Consumer packaged goods companies appear to be under more pressure. But I just say you go back to your chart about the distribution of where the employment growth is coming from. You know, like leisure hospitality. Like you look at what's going on with like some of these, like casual dining establishments like Chipotle and Cava and Sweetgreen and like Shake Shack and like they're telling you that they want to hold the line on prices. They want to let essentially they're willing to like let their margin suffer to maintain market share. Right.

[A]

When you see announcements from companies like that, the, the slop bowl economy, how much of that is just like, don't blame young people and don't blame whatever. Like you guys got out of control, you opened, you expanded too far, your stock prices were stupidly high and Nobody wants to spend 16 for your food. Like, is that, that's where I am at versus a read through to the consumer that they're talking about?

[D]

Well, it's one of the. What is that saying? It's like, it's like when my, when my share price is out is up, I'm executing my strategy and when my share price is down, it's the economy.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[D]

I don't know. I mean, when I think about some of these companies, it's sort of, I kind of think about like this is where people that work in office buildings typically go to eat lunch. And if there aren't as many people eating lunch in office buildings, then these companies are going to come under pressure. Yeah, I think your point probably well taken. I mean, you know, but I would just say that for me the issue is with respect to employment, right? Like, so if restaurants are holding the line on price and they're allowing their margins to come under pressure, the likelihood then is that they're probably not going to be going out and hiring that many people. And so leisure and hospitality, that's a big driver for employment, right? Like, that's a big part of the private, private sector economy. And at least in terms of employment, like the value add isn't the same as tech, obviously, but in terms of labor, it's important.

[A]

All right, let's, let's pivot to the Fed and who's going to run it. A couple of weeks ago, Kevin Wash was really nowhere. The prediction markets tried on, Please had Kevin Hassett way in the lead. Kevin Hassett is some sort of economic advice to the president. Famously or infamously wrote down 36,000amillion years ago. But Kevin Warsh coming up the rear. What is the story? Who is, who is Trump going to nominate?

[D]

I don't know. I don't even think Trump knows yet. You know, the, the Waller, believe it or not, Governor Waller is moving up.

[A]

In the prediction markets because that spiked this afternoon, right?

[D]

It did, because he, there was a journal article that came out that basically said that he's meeting with the President tomorrow. So, you know, we know that the President has a very sort of impulsive nature sometimes, right? And he can, you know, it's like, usually like, who's the last person we spoke to? And that person, you know, is maybe the one that's kind of in the lead is Waller.

[A]

I don't know anything about Waller. I know that Hasset is not a serious person. Is Waller a grown up?

[D]

I think Waller is a very serious person. He's a governor at the Fed right now. And he's been importantly, like, very early in a lot of the key calls that the Fed's been making. I mean, to me, like, if you want to be at an institution like the Fed, it's really about your power of persuasion. Like, how can you get people to think the way you're seeing things, right? So you can't just go in there like, guns blazing, calling everyone like a, like a numbskull. But, but you know what's interesting about Waller, like, remember a couple of years ago, he was the one that made the point about, you know, we can cut job openings without seeing much of an increase in unemployment. I think he was right about that. And then more recently, he's been very, very early in terms of advocating for rate cuts because he says the labor markets are in a much more precarious position than people think. And I think he's been vindicated on that as well. And now a lot of the arguments that he was making, like maybe two, three, four months ago, those are the arguments that Powell is making now. So I think that's really a tell. Right? So he's like an intellectual thought leader on the Fed. I think he'd be a great pick. And then also he'd probably get Powell to leave. Right? Like, that's, that's another thing. Right. Powell's been very, playing it very, very close to the best. Remember, Powell does not have to leave in May.

[A]

He doesn't?

[D]

No, he doesn't have to. His, his term ends in 2028. He can stay governor for two more years. So I mean, the question is, if you put someone Like Waller up, then the likelihood is, is that Powell will leave and then you get, you get another. Another seat that you can fill.

[A]

So what's May. His term is up then, but he doesn't have.

[D]

His chair is up. His term as governor can go on for an additional two years, I believe.

[A]

Understood. Okay, so you mentioned.

[D]

I don't think it'll be either of these people. I actually think that, like Trump is just buying himself time to get Scott Besson to convince Besson of taking the seat.

[A]

Okay, we'll come back to that in a second because I want to hear your take on that. You mentioned that it is not just about being a bull in a china shop. You actually have to build persuasion. I'm sorry? You have to build consensus by persuasion. So Kevin Warsh was talking to. There was an article in Barron's. Kevin War says Jerome Powell has failed inside the mind of the man who may lead the Trump Fed. So he was talking about, in the article, the conversation that he had with Paul Volcker, and he said, this is Volker saying to him, the job of the central bank is to do two things. First, to get interest rates about right. And second, and he emphasized it was at least as important as the first is to make sure you look like you know what you're doing. Credibility is what we're talking about here. And Warsh said, quote, the Powell Fed has failed on both measures. Do you think that's true?

[D]

No, I think he's saying, look, I mean, it's just really rich for Kevin Warsh to talk about credibility. I mean, my entire career he's been hawkish. He's always been. He's. And when he's wrong, I mean, to me, it's okay to be wrong. Like, everyone's wrong. Like in our business, you know that the issue is if you're always wrong in the same direction, that to me is a problem. And he's always wrong in the same direction. He's always too hawkish.

[A]

Okay, so. So he said they believe that inflation is driven by consumers, by wages that are rising too much. He's talking about the Fed and consumers that are spending too much. I fundamentally disagree. At the core, I think inflation comes about when the government spends too much and prints too much. So the school of thought is fundamentally different, at obviously odds with Powell. So you think that he's always been too afraid of inflation.

[D]

He's a fiscal. I mean, he was afraid of inflation, spectacularly afraid of inflation in the 2010s when inflation was doing absolutely nothing. And then you Know, look, I mean, I. To me, what's interesting about him is beyond the economics is just like his. If you go through that guy's resume, Michael, the one impressive thing on his resume is the Fed, which is an institution that he knifed.

[A]

Right.

[D]

Upon leaving. Right. Bernanke kind of gave him this cool job to kind of be the liaison from the Board of Governors to Wall Street. So he talks to bankers and so forth. I mean, it probably helped him establish a lot of relationships. And how does he repay Bernanke for that? Basically, trash talks.

[A]

He slept with his wife for forever, so. Okay.

[D]

No, I mean, I just think. Look, like, I think it's, It's. It's a little disingenuous for him to be calling the Powell Fed, like, lacking of credibility. I mean, it's. I don't really put too much stock into that.

[A]

Based on your comments. Based on his comments. Why is this. This doesn't sound like somebody that the President would want leading the.

[D]

Well, he's hawkish. Right. The President wants someone that can make the intellectual case for cutting interest rates. And that's a really difficult place for Kevin Warsh to do, to be, because he hasn't really ever been able to make that argument because he's always been hawkish. I think that's another thing. Right. You have to ask yourself, isn't it a little convenient for him to be dovish now? I think that's kind of interesting. Right? He's been a hawk his entire life. The second where. The moment where it becomes politically convenient for him to be dovish, he becomes one.

[A]

Okay, as we, as we wrap this conversation up, Neil, the. The Journal had an article why everyone got Trump's tariffs wrong. This is a very unusual year. At least it felt to me. It felt weird. 2025. So many different narratives, so many different what ifs. And, and obviously you mentioned we're wrong all the time, all over the place in this business, but just so many things that we thought would happen that didn't come to pass. Are you surprised? What do you think people got wrong about Trump's tariffs?

[D]

Yeah, I am surprised. I mean, I was probably one of those people that was like, lighting my hair on fire, like, in the middle. Well, I mean, in the second quarter of this year, thinking that the bottom was going to kind of fall out and, you know, and Trump reversed himself, like, very quickly and kind of pulled back. But at the end of the day, I mean, we still have an effective tariff rate north of 10%, and we're collecting hundreds of billions of dollars.

[A]

So the $200 billion, I mean we sucked it out of the economy. It didn't seem to slow us down very much.

[D]

Well, I mean, I think that, that's, I think that remains to be seen. Right. And so this, this is sort of my, my, my gripe is that, I mean you're seeing it show up in employment, you're seeing it, you're seeing it show up in certain areas of the economy. I think what we didn't maybe foresee is just how massive the, the AI boom has been and that's kind of hit the economy across multiple dimensions. Right. It's generated a wealth effect in the equity markets and that supported high end consumer spending and it supported a fairly significant capital spending boom as you have this big data center construction build out all across the country. So we'll see what happens. But I don't think you can raise hundreds of billions of dollars and have no blowback on the economy.

[A]

So Neil, we're at a very weird place in the economy and the market and the cycle. I don't even know where we are. But as the Fed is cutting with inflation, wages, not inflation going lower, but everything that drives sticky inflation, you would think going in the right direction for people that don't like price increases. What would you need to see or what are you going to be looking for as a leading indicator to say, okay, things are actually not going in reverse, but maybe they're starting to bottom out and actually the economy is going to be unstable footing. Like what would, what would you look for?

[D]

I mean to me it's really about, it comes to employment. Like you, you want to look, you want to see hours worked expand, you want to see jobs growth broaden out beyond just healthcare. When those things happen, then I think you can, you can, you know, be a little bit more optimistic about the future. But you know, for the time being those things aren't happening and it's, it's hard to see why they would happen. You know, between now and the end of next year.

[A]

How concerned are you? I was about to use a green to red scale traffic light. I don't know why. But 0, 10, 10, 10 being major, scared, 0 being we're great. Like where are we? Are you a seven?

[D]

Yeah, I think we're seven, eight. I mean if 10 is like GFC and like, and zero is just like the 90s, I mean, I think I'd probably say I'm in a seven. I mean look, I think we have a sluggish year ahead. I would just say I mean, you do have rising unemployment. That's going to create some issues for consumers. State and local governments are pulling back. The housing market is in recession. Those are some important areas of the economy that have been driving growth for a number of years. So if you lose that, you're sort of. You're on much thinner ice than you think. And, you know, look, a lot of the enthusiasm right now is just driven by like, oh, we have this bill coming where you get refunds and so forth. But historically, like, tax refunds don't create, like a sustainable turn in consumption. Right. Like, you get your refund, maybe you spend it, maybe you don't. I mean, it really depends on how you feel about employment at the time. Right? Like, if you're getting a refund but you're worried about losing your job, are you going to really go out and spend the money money or are you going to save it? I think there's a lot to think about next year, but I feel good about where our call is. And I think in terms of unemployment, it's clearly going higher. And despite that, the Fed is not doing anything. And so, look, the markets are not even priced fully for January, even though we just had another increase in the unemployment rate. So to me, that's a little concerning and it kind of risks them falling behind the curve.

[A]

All right, that's a bad place to end it. But, Neil, listen, I want to thank you for coming on. You are data dependent. It's one of the things I love most about you. You do not have a narrative and then torture the data to find it. Wherever the data goes, that's where it will take you. So I appreciate you coming on today.

[D]

Thanks, Michael. Go Nicks.

[A]

Go Nicks. All right, I want to thank Vaneck again for sponsoring. I want to thank everybody for tuning in and watching. Dan A. Ives is the man. Thank you, Dan. All right, Josh will be back with us next next week, Tuesday, live at 5. Happy holidays, everybody. We'll see you soon.