Podcast Summary
Podcast: The Compound and Friends
Episode: Autonomous Driving Is a Trillion Dollar Opportunity With Uber President Andrew Macdonald
Date: February 9, 2026
Host: Downtown Josh Brown
Guest: Andrew “Mac” Macdonald, President and COO, Uber
Main Theme
This episode is a deep dive into Uber’s vision for the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs), their strategic approach to partnerships and deployment, and why the company sees the coming autonomy revolution as a multi-trillion dollar opportunity. Andrew "Mac" Macdonald discusses Uber’s business performance, competitive advantages, and how Uber aims not just to survive, but to thrive and shape the AV space.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Uber’s Recent Performance and Broad Portfolio
- Macdonald reflects on his 14 years at Uber and growing responsibilities, now overseeing mobility, delivery, and cross-platform initiatives (02:23).
- Uber’s metrics are hitting all-time highs: $15B annual run rate in trips, 200M+ monthly active users, record GAAP income, adjusted EBITDA up 35% YoY, trips up 22%, and Uber One membership growth (03:16).
- Quote (Josh, 04:35): “Maybe it’s one of the more extraordinary stories taking place in the market right now.”
2. Growth, Opportunity, and Market Penetration
- Despite market saturation perceptions, Uber continues to add record numbers of new users, particularly in international markets where it’s still early-stage (04:35 - 06:39).
- High engagement: While average users take ~6 rides/month, best markets see 9+; best customers hit over 20 rides/month.
- Quote (Macdonald, 06:39): “My goal is to grow a lot more of those types of customers who are using us basically every day.”
3. Coverage and Competitive Positioning in the U.S.
- Uber is ubiquitous, operating in 8,000+ U.S. markets and reaching 95%+ of the population (07:53).
- Misconception debunked: While top cities drive significant revenue, most of Uber’s U.S. profits/Gross Booking Segment (GBS) come from outside the top 20 cities (07:53).
- Many international markets have average fares too low for AVs to be relevant for years—delaying potential disruption and supporting Uber’s robust future.
- Quote (Macdonald, 09:30): “A big piece of that business… just not going to be relevant for autonomous vehicles for some amount of time.”
4. Uber’s Autonomous Vehicle Strategy: Global Partnership, Not DIY
- Uber’s model: Partner-aggregator, not builder. Uber aims to connect any AV fleet (OEMs, software startups, etc.) to its 200M users (11:12).
- AV technology is no longer winner-take-all; many players (in the U.S., China, Middle East) have “solved” Level 4 self-driving. Uber works with seven live partners globally (12:24).
- As AV tech proliferates—“every car… is going to have autonomous driving capability”—what matters is network utilization and reliability, not just who owns the software/hardware (13:45).
- Quote (Macdonald, 14:44): “Our strategy is the right one… utilization wins the day and consumer experience wins the day.”
5. Addressing Skeptics: Switching Costs, Distribution, and Market Share
- Low switching costs have always been true in ridesharing—people and drivers use multiple apps—but scale, reliability, and efficiency win (16:27).
- Uber will aggregate all available supply (AVs, human drivers), winning through better utilization and faster/more reliable service.
- Quote (Macdonald, 16:27): “It’s going to matter who gets the first look… Who’s being opened first… They care about price, reliability, and safety.”
6. Expanding the Mobility Pie—AVs Grow, Not Just Split, the Market
- Data from Atlanta and Austin: AVs bring more options, increase overall usage, and attract new types of customers (19:44 - 21:21).
- Quote (Macdonald, 20:26): “It’s not a fixed pie. As the service becomes more reliable, higher quality… you’re going to gravitate to using mobility as a service more versus driving your own car.”
7. The Power of Data and Global Learning
- Uber leverages data from 10M+ global drivers/couriers to improve edge-case handling, pickups/drop-offs (airports, large venues), and feeds insights back to AV partners (23:23).
- Physical deployment (e.g. depot power, fleet management, customer support, payments, risk) is a complex, worldwide challenge—Uber’s scale and operational experience give it a strong moat (23:23 - 25:39).
8. Fleet and Balance Sheet Strategy: Asset-Light, but Willing to Invest
- Uber prefers to remain asset-light long-term but is willing to co-invest in AV fleets (with Lucid, Neuro, Nvidia, etc.) as a short-term accelerant to ensure leadership (27:17).
- Quote (Macdonald, 27:51): “I want to have [the vehicles] on our network. I don’t want to have them on our balance sheet.”
- Future model may echo hotels/REITs, separating asset owners from service operators (28:55).
9. Branding and Customer Experience with AV Fleets
- Uber’s branded AVs (in partnership with Lucid, Neuro) signal its commitment and build consumer trust/awareness (30:00 - 30:58).
- The visual identity (e.g., all-black Lucid Ubers) is intentionally distinct.
10. Delivery Bots and Form-Factor Innovation
- While partners like Neuro are pivoting, form-factor innovation (different sizes/shapes of delivery bots) is happening. In some cases, unit economics for bot delivery already match or beat human couriers (31:59 - 32:55).
- Quote (Macdonald, 32:39): “Our cost per trip for some of our serve deliveries… are already cheaper on certain deliveries than the human courier equivalent.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Platform Power:
- “...A network like ours that’s aggregating all autonomous vehicles still wins in that world.” — Andrew Macdonald (14:44)
- On Long-Term Vision:
- “10 years from now, I don’t want to be sitting here as the largest owner of autonomous vehicles in the world, even if I am confident that we’re going to be the largest network for getting autonomous rides.” — Andrew Macdonald (27:44)
- On Market Expansion:
- “It’s not a fixed pie. As the service becomes more reliable, higher quality… you’re going to gravitate to using mobility as a service more versus driving your own car.” — Andrew Macdonald (20:26)
- On Operational Moat:
- “We have almost 10 million drivers and couriers on the road on the Uber platform, doing trips, doing deliveries, encountering every single edge case you can think of.” — Andrew Macdonald (23:47)
- On Brand Visibility:
- “...There’s a great consumer awareness play here. People see these things all over their cities. They get excited about them.” — Andrew Macdonald (30:58)
- On Delivery Bots:
- “The form factor innovation here is going to be really exciting. And on the delivery side… unit economics already work.” — Andrew Macdonald (32:39)
Key Timestamps
- 02:23 – Macdonald’s growing role at Uber
- 03:16 – 04:35 – Uber’s recent record performance
- 06:39 – User base size & potential
- 07:53 – Uber’s U.S. geographic coverage
- 11:12 – 13:45 – Uber’s AV partnership/platform approach
- 16:27 – Low switching costs and why Uber still wins
- 19:44 – AVs expand the market, don’t just divide it
- 23:23 – 25:39 – Data and global operational expertise as a moat
- 27:17 – 28:55 – Willingness to invest in fleets, asset-light vision
- 30:00 – 30:58 – Branding and AV platforms, Lucid partnership
- 31:59 – 32:55 – Delivery bots and future of Eats logistics
Summary Conclusion
Uber’s president Andrew Macdonald presents a highly optimistic and strategic vision for Uber’s role in autonomous mobility, emphasizing the company’s network effects, operational know-how, and global reach as lasting advantages. Uber intends to remain the “marketplace” for any and all forms of rides—human or robot-driven—through a partner-first approach, while being pragmatic and opportunistic about short-term investments in AV fleets and infrastructure. The key message: with autonomous driving technology de-risked as a “trillion dollar opportunity,” Uber believes its “utilization wins” approach will outlast and outperform competitors, reinforcing its leadership as mobility fundamentally transforms.