The Compound and Friends | Episode: Brian Belski Breaks Loose, Palantir Erupts, Stocks Getting Quietly Killed, Uber and Toast Report

Date: November 5, 2025
Hosts: Downtown Josh Brown (“A”), Michael Batnick (“B”)
Guest: Brian Belski (“C”)

Episode Overview

This episode is a dynamic blend of big-idea market discussions and lively earnings debates, with a headline interview of famed strategist Brian Belski as he launches his own investment firm, Humilis Investment Strategies. The team reviews Palantir’s explosive earnings, discusses “quiet” bear market trends, and dissects the latest from Uber, Toast, and other notable companies. Expect a rich mix of philosophy, hot takes, and practical analysis.

Brian Belski’s Firm & Investing Philosophy

[03:01–37:50]

Launch of Humilis Investment Strategies

• Belski introduces his new firm:
  • Named “Humilis” (Latin for humble; acronym: HIS).
  • Tagline: “Investing with conviction and humility.”
  • Purpose: Focuses on portfolio strategy, relationships, and running equity portfolios in both the U.S. and Canada, rather than catering to institutional report demands.
• Investment Approach:
  • Emphasizes humility, quoting Micah 6:8 (“act justly, love mercy, walk humbly”).
  • Conviction: “Rule number three of investing is I don't know everything. In fact, I'm not the smartest person in this room… But I think I know a lot about the 50 companies we run.” (C, 08:27)
  • U.S. Strategy: 50 large cap stocks, high-conviction positions (1–6%).
  • SMID Cap: 65–75 stocks, more diversification due to risk.
• Philosophy:
  • “Investing is like life and life is like investing.” (C, 07:04)
  • Focus on fundamental analysis: value, dividend growth, SMID caps.
  • Broadening market: Believes outperformance will spread beyond the Mag 7.
• Memorable Quote:
  • “Just because asset prices go up doesn't mean it's a bubble.” (C, 20:29)
• Relationship-Driven:
  • “This business is all about relationships, period. And we've been very blessed to have great relationships all along.” (C, 05:30)

Brian’s S&P 500 Call

• Sets 2025 S&P target at 7,000 (bull case); almost precisely realized as of this recording.
• “Targets are an academic practice… what we said in April is we own what we own, man. We own what we own. And we didn't change anything.” (C, 34:13)

Personal Reflections:

• Belski shares emotional reactions to launching his firm, gratitude for support, and reiterates excitement: “I wanted a new chapter in my life. And I'm super excited about being off on my own and doing this and being able to do what I love.” (C, 35:43)

Palantir: Explosive Results and “Cult of the CEO”

[42:25–57:42]

Financial Performance

• Palantir annual revenue run rate: $4.5–5B+, growing profitably and rapidly.
• U.S. revenue: Up 77% YoY; total contract value up 342% YoY to $1.3B.
• “Rule of 40” profitability/growth combo: “They're off the charts… accelerating.” (B, 50:33)
• Palantir compared to other top software names: “What they're doing is not being done by anyone.” (A, 51:14)

CEO Alex Karp’s Combative Stance

• Karp’s conference call opens with an aggressive statement:
  • “By any normal or even reasonable standard, these are not normal results… arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered… despite what your analyst friends may want you to believe, because they've been wrong at every price.” (A, 56:31)
• Hosts discuss Karp’s antagonism toward shorts and the press—both political and financial.
  • “I think he thinks of Palantir and himself as interchangeable. And obviously they are, right?” (A, 46:45)
  • “He's galvanizing his base because his base are retail holders.” (B, 43:40)
• Discussed the role of retail investors in supporting the share price and the growing CEO playbook of cultivating retail support.

“Bubble” Debate

• Hosts draw lines between “expensive” and “bubble.”
  • “Words matter… A bubble is… where there is no roadmap to which future cash flows can justify today's prices.” (B, 21:05)
• Palantir seen not as a bubble by the hosts, but acknowledged that “froth” could exist in areas related to OpenAI, circular deal-making, and AI hype.

“Quiet Bear Market” Below the Surface

[62:41–68:03]

Market Internals Discussion

• Josh argues many “brand name” stocks are getting “secretly killed,” with 31% of S&P 500 stocks 20% or more below their 52-week highs.
  • “I think the market is secretly getting killed below the surface.” (A, 62:41)
  • “66% of the S&P 500 is down over the last month. It's nothing to be alarmed about… but it's also not nothing.” (A, 64:44)
• Michael is less alarmed, citing equal weight S&P is only off a couple percent:
  • “The equal weighted stock market is down 2.4% from its all time highs. So when you say the stock market is secretly getting killed and it's alarming, you need to relax.” (B, 66:26)
• Both agree the shakeout is “healthy”—an overdue “foam off the top of the beer” after high-flying market moves.

Sector Rotations

• Noted rallies in defensive names (financials, homebuilders, healthcare), suggesting market “breadth” and rotation—signs of bull-market health.
  • “They rallied the defensives… I like to see, and I think it's healthy.” (A, 69:20)

Earnings Reports: Uber, Toast, Fiserv & More

[90:01–95:41]

Uber

• Performance: 22% YoY trip growth, 20% revenue growth, 200M monthly users soon.
• Exploring autonomous rides with Nvidia; partnership with Lucid for vehicle manufacturing.
• “Stock belongs over 100. If today were a better day in the market, I think it'd be higher.” (A, 95:42)

Toast

• Beat on revenue; missed on earnings but ARR (annual recurring revenue) up 30% YoY.
• Hosts see strong competitive position post-Fiserv blowup, citing partnerships and sector consolidation.
• “This company has the industry on smash right now, especially if Clover's going to be up for the next few quarters.” (A, 90:42)

Fiserv

• Major blowup; one of the largest S&P 500 one-day drops since the financial crisis.
• Management criticized for buying back shares before “annihilation catastrophe.”
  • “This is the most irresponsible, reckless behavior I've seen from a company in a long time.” (B, 85:58)
• Only one analyst had a sell on the name; overall suggests lack of Wall Street rigor.

Chipotle & "Sloppable" (Fast Casual) Companies

• Consensus: Industry under pressure from price hikes, declining sentiment, and changing customer tastes.
• “Nobody wants to pay 14 for the bowl anymore… nobody wants your slop anymore.” (B, 80:25)
• Preference is for alternate turnarounds, e.g., Starbucks or Domino's, not Chipotle.

Macro Discussion: "Bubble" Talk, Profit Margins, Earnings Season Trends

[17:00–21:05 | 58:23–76:28]

• Profit margins at all-time highs, making forward P/Es less extreme after margin-adjusting.
  • “If this is a bubble, it's probably the cheapest bubble in history.” (C, 19:15)
• Big bank CEOs warn of possible 10–15% pullbacks—hosts view this as healthy bull-market correction comments, not structural doom.
  • “Maybe the best thing ever. If we get a 10 to 15% pullback on no tariff nonsense… Let's set up for the next leg. Higher. That's healthy.” (B, 74:54)
• Media penchant for recycling CEO “pullback” soundbites critiqued—seen as inevitable news cycle hype.

CrowdStrike: A Long-Term Winner

[99:01–103:01]

• Josh reveals CrowdStrike (CRWD) as one of his top holdings, up 852% since IPO (42% annualized).
• “Winner” in the cybersecurity bull market—a key lesson in following strong secular trends early.
• “If you knew it… should have been way more aggressive. I should have owned five of these things and never sold.” (A, 101:02)
• Michael acknowledges: “You nailed it. Good for you… Not trade. Hold and shout out…” (B, 102:35)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Investing with conviction and humility.” (Belski, 03:10)
• “Just because asset prices go up doesn't mean it's a bubble.” (Belski, 20:29)
• “Words matter… a bubble is… there is no roadmap to which future cash flows can justify today's prices.” (Batnick, 21:05)
• “66% of the S&P 500 is actually down over the last month. It's nothing to be alarmed about…but it's also not nothing.” (Brown, 64:44)
• “Palantir: arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered.” (Brown, quoting Karp, 56:31)
• “This is the most irresponsible, reckless behavior I've seen from a company in a long time.” (Batnick, on Fiserv, 85:58)
• “All credit to you… You nailed it. Good for you. …Not trade. Hold and shout out…” (Batnick to Brown, 102:35)
• “I wanted a new chapter in my life. And I'm super excited about being off on my own and doing this and being able to do what I love.” (Belski, 35:43)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Brian Belski’s Firm & Philosophy: [03:01–37:50]
• Palantir Deep Dive: [42:25–57:42]
• Market Breadth & Bear Market Debate: [62:41–68:03]
• Earnings Hot Takes (Uber, Toast, Fiserv): [90:01–95:41]
• Macro “Bubble” Debate: [17:00–21:05], [58:23–76:28]
• CrowdStrike Winner Reveal: [99:01–103:01]

The Episode's Tone and Flair

• Signature banter; passionate debates over stock “secret kills,” bubbles, and Wall Street narratives.
• Upbeat, unscripted; frequent jokes (“You are in a kayak heading over Niagara Falls talking about a little reset…” A, 66:08).
• Practical, actionable sentiment, with strong opinions but good humor.

Bottom Line:
A robust and spirited episode, blending big-picture philosophy and market strategy courtesy of newly-minted entrepreneur Brian Belski, alongside frank, often contrarian, earnings analysis from Josh and Michael. Palantir’s breakout, the “secret bear market,” and lessons from past secular winners like CrowdStrike offer listeners timely, credible guidance through both hype and undercurrents in today’s market.