Podcast Summary: The Compound and Friends

Episode: Inside the Baddest Hedge Fund in America with Sam Koppelman and Nathaniel Horwitz

Date: February 13, 2026
Host(s): Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
Guests: Sam Koppelman (Publisher at Hunter Brook Media), Nathaniel Horwitz (CEO, Hunter Brook Media and Hunter Brook Capital)

Overview

This episode explores the innovative intersection of investigative journalism and hedge fund investing, featuring Sam Koppelman and Nathaniel Horwitz of Hunter Brook. The discussion unpacks how Hunter Brook combines newsroom investigative rigor with market strategies, offers unique insights into recent market volatility, and dives deep into real-life cases where journalism influenced trades and regulatory action. The conversation blends market analysis, irreverent humor, and thoughtful takes on the value of information in a world awash with AI and disinformation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Hunter Brook Story: Journalism Meets Markets

• Origins & Mission:

  • Both Koppelman and Horwitz, with roots in journalism and business, saw that truth-seeking skills were undervalued in both markets and media.
  • Hunter Brook operates a newsroom that monetizes investigations through ads/paywalls, a hedge fund that takes disclosed positions, and a legal business pursuing lawsuits based on reporting.

    “Is the New York Times a games business or is it a newspaper? No, it’s a newspaper…and they monetize great recipes and games.” – Sam Koppelman [18:30]

• Journalistic Rigor and Transparency:

  • Publishing is vital: attracts top-tier journalists and builds public credibility.

    “The best journalists, they’re not willing to give up the byline or the public service mission that took them into journalism in the first place.” – Nathaniel Horwitz [26:27]

  • Their newsroom is “ad-free and free to read for everybody,” driven by finding actionable truth, not clickbait. [26:57]

• Unique Value Prop:

  • Rather than compete for eyeballs, HB aims to uncover mispricings in perception vs. reality by rigorous investigation, then monetize via market positions.

    “If you’re a newsroom and you’re monetizing the information…we think that is more valuable than ever at a time when people are just indiscriminately selling stocks…” – Sam Koppelman [18:02]

Current Market Chaos: The AI Selloff & ‘Uncertainty Binge’

• Market is slashing the value of “disruptible” companies, especially in response to AI headlines—sometimes indiscriminately.

• Price action includes mega-caps dropping double digits based on rumors or speculative tweets, and whiplash sell-offs in sectors like CRE and logistics.

• Example:

  “The only other time we've seen this level of you're dead, you, you're dead…at all-time highs was right before the dot com bubble burst.” – Michael Batnick [15:00]

• AI as a stressor:

  “A lot of what’s being priced in is just uncertainty about the terminal value of anything…I’m uncertain about the terminal value of myself.” – Sam Koppelman [09:51]

• Commoditization of ‘intelligence’ vs. value of ‘intel’:

  “In a world where the value of intelligence is…being commoditized for the first time, the value of actual intel, information about what’s actually happening in the world, that's increasing exponentially.” – Nathaniel Horwitz [10:47]

How Hunter Brook Operates: Methods & Ethics

• Their Approach:

  • Combining old-fashioned, shoe-leather journalism with tech and market savvy.
  • Using open-source intelligence, deep interviews, and sometimes literal "stake-outs" to establish real-world truth.

• Transparency & Ethics:

  • Fully discloses whenever fund takes a position based on reporting; avoids short-term “short and distort” tactics.
  • Focus is on accuracy, not scooping a quick buck. Reputation is everything.

    “You have to basically build a reputation for being right as the atomic substructure of everything else.” – Sam Koppelman [31:27]

• Sourcing Stories:

  • Stories come from tips, systematic screens (e.g., environmental red flags), or simply following up on oddities in financial statements or trading action.

Notable Case Studies

1. Evolve (Evolv Technology, EVLV)

[44:56-52:21]

• Perception: Suspected fraud due to metro/NYC contracts and a public CEO admission that their metal detector may not work underground. High-level management turmoil and financial reporting suspensions caused massive selloff.
• Journalism: HB did deep field research, interviewed customers (e.g., stadiums & schools), and found tech was valued and in widespread use.
• Result: Published bullish piece, disclosing long position. Earnings restated with minor errors; stock soared from ~$2 to >$8 in the aftermath.

  “Turns out the kids were getting to class on time instead of held up at the entrance…and Evolve’s technology means you don’t have to pat down all these kids.” – Sam Koppelman [48:25]
  “They restate their financials…de minimis, like $4 million…stock had lost hundreds of millions.” – Nathaniel Horwitz [50:29]

2. Sable Offshore & the Phil Mickelson Pump

[52:38-56:54]

• Sable tried to revive a problematic pipeline project, aided by a colorful cast, including “Big Jim Flores” and Phil Mickelson, who actively hyped the stock in chat groups.
• HB uncovered evidence the company couldn’t possibly hit milestones, and sourced text/audio leaks showing dubious promotional and undisclosed information sharing.
• Outcome: Published exposé; stock tanked from $30 to $10+, company now under SEC/DOJ investigation triggered by HB’s work.

  “People started leaking me their chats with Phil Mickelson…he was in group chats pumping the stock.” – Sam Koppelman [55:46]

3. The Sphere (MSG Sphere, Las Vegas)

[61:41-64:31]

• Sphere written off due to high losses under James Dolan, but field intelligence showed unique sales success with new event formats (e.g., Wizard of Oz remake).
• HB used creative data analysis to estimate revenues ahead of disclosures; bought stock (did not publish story before Bloomberg scoop). Stock quadrupled within a year.

  “A newsroom source had come up with a really clever way to figure out…exactly what Sphere’s sales were before maybe even the company itself really knew…” – Nathaniel Horowitz [62:44]

Additional Notable Story

• Fake News Drives Real Trades:
  • Papa John’s buyout rumor traced to a fake outlet (“ABC Money”), exposed as a paid PR scam. HB reported, disclosed short, and profited as stock dropped 12%.

    “No one else did that. We start digging in and realize ABC Money is a fake outlet…We disclosed a short, it opened down 12%.” – Sam Koppelman [20:34]

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “There’s a non-zero chance that these SaaS names chop for years…every quarter it’s record revenue, record profits, and the stock is getting murdered.” – Michael Batnick [12:33]
• “What if you could just fund journalism with the impact of the reporting?” – Sam Koppelman [22:09]
• “It’s a great feedback loop. You can get educated really quickly on how people perceive what you’re saying about the world. And yeah, there have been times where we have not been cynical enough.” – Nathaniel Horwitz [35:47]
• “Gravity has always existed. Eventually, when Hunter Brook has existed for 10 years…people know how the story ends.” – Sam Koppelman [35:03]
• “The masterstroke of the market: if a short seller writes a story…you get the blame. When companies hype themselves for years and then collapse, no one blames them.” – Sam Koppelman [41:34]
• “If you’re a bad actor, you go to sleep the easiest you’ve gone to sleep in a very long time…That’s a great opportunity to buy the dip on integrity.” – Sam Koppelman [34:58]

Audience Questions/Advice

• On Retail Trading Mania & “Dumb Money” Sentiment:

  “If you’re hearing from your cousin it’s really time to buy silver…I’d just say, take a breath and think, it’s probably not that easy.” – Sam Koppelman [58:57]

  • Panel agrees: When the least likely person in your network is bullish, it's probably late in the trend. [59:34]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00-03:24 – Banter about journalism backgrounds & the origin of Hunter Brook
• 09:05-16:12 – AI sell-off, market structure changes, terminal value uncertainty
• 18:21-24:20 – The business model: media, investing, legal actions; why journalism is valuable again
• 26:29-27:54 – Why not just hire journalists in-house at hedge funds?
• 31:47-34:58 – Publisher vs analyst—how HB’s journalism is different; reputation is everything
• 35:47-40:02 – What happens when the market ignores your story? Being right and keeping integrity
• 44:56-52:21 – Case study: Evolve (EVLV) turnaround, from fraud concerns to bullish position
• 52:38-56:54 – Case study: Sable Offshore and the Phil Mickelson pump
• 61:41-64:31 – Case study: The Sphere (MSG Sphere) and unique event monetization
• 58:13-59:43 – Advice for retail traders on hype cycles and caution signals

How To Learn More

• Sign up for Hunter Brook’s newsletter: newsletter.hntrbrk.com
• Send story ideas: ideas@hunterbrook.com
• Visit: hunterbrook.com

Final thought:

“I actually hope people start to imitate what you’re doing…if there were 10 Hunter Brooks, what an amazing thing that would be.” – Josh Brown [65:15]