Podcast Summary: The Compound and Friends

Episode: Jonathan Boyar's Favorite Cheap Stocks with Catalysts

Date: March 27, 2026
Host(s): Downtown Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
Guest: Jonathan Boyar (Principal, Boyar Value Group)

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode features value investor Jonathan Boyar discussing his approach to identifying undervalued stocks with catalysts, why certain stocks — including big tech names and unique “special situation” plays — are potentially attractive in the current market, and how he evaluates company narratives, catalysts, and investor sentiment. The discussion highlights changes in market dynamics (especially regarding valuation and compression), the psychology of value investing, and presents several actionable stock ideas, with a focus on the importance of catalysts for realizing value.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intro to Jonathan Boyar and Value Investing Background

• Jonathan introduces himself as Principal at Boyar Value Group, highlighting his family's storied history (including ties to Chef Boyardee).
• Boyar Research, founded in 1975, serves investors ranging from hedge funds to family offices.
• Notable Moment: Jonathan recounts how having Ken Langone and Bill Ackman as podcast guests helped his own show gain visibility.
  "[Ken Langone] just made it easier after having him to get other guests. And he is such a great guy and so smart." (06:47)

2. Market Environment: "Is This a Weird Market?"

• Discussion about whether the current market is unusual, with a focus on how valuation is coming back into style after years of growth and story stocks dominating.
• Jonathan’s long-term focus: he buys with a 2-4 year timeline, not months.
• Quote:
  “Valuation matters. It depends on your timeframe...I’m looking at something two, three, four years down the line. Can I make money for my clients on it?” – Jonathan Boyar (08:43)

3. The Challenge and Psychology of Value Investing

• Value investing is “lonely;” you often buy what’s hated, misunderstood, or falling.
• Premature accumulation (“the curse of value investors”) is common.
• Importance of buying slowly—starting small, adding as momentum improves.
• Quote:
  “That's the curse of value investors. You just have to take the good with the bad…That's the price of admission for equity.” – Jonathan Boyar (10:20)

4. The Compression of Big Tech ("MAG7") Valuations

[Timestamps: 12:00–23:00]

• The “MAG7” names (Meta, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft) have suffered major multiple compressions, making them appear cheap on a forward PE basis.
• Debate: Are these stocks truly cheap, or are their business models fundamentally shifting (especially with high capex/A.I. spending)?
• Microsoft and Meta’s long-term prospects debated; Meta questioned for their capex in A.I. and Metaverse.
• "If you can look past the next week, you gotta be getting excited." – Michael Batnick (13:30)
• "I think these stocks are going to work. They're so dominant and they're not all created equal." – Jonathan Boyar (17:28)

5. On Catalysts and Corporate Behavior

• Investors discussed how companies may trigger a revaluation — e.g., if Meta's management signals efficiency or profitable A.I. investments.
• Quote:
  "They're eventually going to have a Zuckerberg moment... where he just said 'This is the year of efficiency.'" – Jonathan Boyar (17:00)

6. Stock Selection Philosophy and Process

• For each stock, Boyar’s team writes an extensive report, examining risks, upside, and thesis. If the thesis breaks, they re-evaluate.
• Boyar loves when everyone disagrees with his bullish ideas — signals low expectations.
• Quote:
  “If it’s overwhelmingly ‘you’re an idiot,’ does that make you more confident?” – Michael Batnick
  “Yes. Because it means it’s so hated.” – Jonathan Boyar (34:53)

7. Detailed Stock Ideas and Discussions

A. Salesforce (CRM)

• Thesis: Ingrained, irreplaceable software in regulated and slow-moving industries. Why is it so beaten down? Possible GARP rotation.
• Catalysts: Demonstrating A.I. investments boosting margins; eventual insider buying or outside activist involvement.
• "They are critically important to so many businesses... they're the survivors." – Jonathan Boyar (29:03)

B. Uber (UBER)

• Thesis:
  • Largest network/platform, poised to win both ride-sharing and delivery. Network effects and logistics dominance set it apart.
  • Bear case: Autonomy could be a threat, but "winner take all" is unlikely and Uber's partnerships/scale are defensible.
  • Bull case: Transition to asset-light, cash flow growth, buybacks, and multi-faceted moat (Uber One, integrated rides/eats/ads).
• Catalysts: Strategic partnerships with AV companies, growth in advertising, international expansion, and ongoing buybacks.
• "The only way for this thesis not to work is if there’s only one autonomous vehicle company and that’s not going to happen." – Jonathan Boyar (45:53)

C. Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)

• Thesis:
  • Controls Knicks and Rangers, yet trades at a huge discount to asset value. Catalysts are structural (spinout, adding minority investors, buyback).
  • Policy/Tax catalyst: Post-2027, being public could hurt tax-wise, likely forcing a sale or going private.
• "MSG Sports owns the Knicks and Rangers. You can buy them for $8B; Forbes values them at $14.75B." – Jonathan Boyar (39:06)

D. MGM Resorts (MGM)

• Thesis:
  • Owns most of the prime Las Vegas properties, is returning capital to shareholders, and holds a stake in Japan’s soon-to-be only legal casino.
  • Risk: Asset sales to private equity may degrade the Vegas experience, raising costs.
• Catalyst: Opening first legal Japanese casino in 2030, continuing buybacks.
• "The best part of the story... they're opening the only casino, legalized casino in Japan. Only one. They're projecting $6B in revenue." – Jonathan Boyar (56:01)

E. Scott's Miracle-Gro (SMG)

• Thesis:
  • Family-controlled, classically stable consumer staple, suffered writeoffs on cannabis pivot, now potentially in “for sale” position.
  • "Best consumer staple at ~9.5x EBITDA, should trade at 12-13x" – Jonathan Boyar (62:05)

F. Atlanta Braves Holdings (BATRA/BATRK)

• Thesis:
  • Owns the Atlanta Braves MLB franchise and valuable real estate (Battery Atlanta).
  • Controlled by John Malone, who is likely to simplify and sell. Could get $60/share vs. $42 now.
  • "Asset-backed stock... worth about 60 in a sale." – Jonathan Boyar (65:36)

8. Narratives, Bubbles, and Lessons from Market History

• Costco and Apple are treated as "quality bubble" stocks—investors pay richly for consistency and lock-in, not necessarily growth.
• "Costco was... a quality bubble... Walmart, GE... Investors get sucked into these great stories, and these stocks are never going to go down." – Jonathan Boyar (25:07)
• Market history: comparison made to Nifty50 stocks of the 1970s, which took a decade to recover from sky-high valuations (27:00–28:00).

9. Process for Handling Being Wrong

• Each stock is re-examined in light of new information. Admitting a broken thesis and moving on is crucial.
• "If the thesis is not playing out, you have to reevaluate it." – Jonathan Boyar (33:22)

10. Catalyst Identification

• Catalysts are essential to avoid "value traps." Typically seek a plausible event/structural shift within two-three years (e.g., spinoff, asset sale, buyout, tax changes).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Insider Sentiment:
  "You rarely see a ton of fresh capital coming into a stock unless it's a very extreme situation." – Josh Brown (32:02)
• On Value Investing:
  "It's very lonely...premature accumulation...That's the price of admission for equity." – Jonathan Boyar (10:18)
• On Market Psychology:
  "Investors have a fantastic setup...The best indicator of future returns is valuation..." – Jonathan Boyar (22:58)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 06:04 – Jonathan Boyar’s background and Chef Boyardee
• 08:36 – Is this market really weird? Valuation perspectives
• 10:06 – The loneliness of value investing
• 12:00–14:43 – NASDAQ multiples and the fall of MAG7
• 17:00 – Anticipating catalysts for mega cap stocks
• 29:03 – Salesforce as an embedded, irreplaceable system
• 34:16 – Boyar’s stock selection process and write-ups
• 39:06 – MSG Sports discount and catalyst
• 45:29 – Uber’s AV partnerships and market position
• 56:01 – MGM’s Japan casino as major catalyst
• 62:11 – Scott’s Miracle-Gro as a ‘for sale’ play
• 65:36 – Atlanta Braves Holdings and John Malone
• 67:31 – Why Boyar passed on Adobe (concerns for AI and data defensibility)

Actionable Takeaways & Ideas

• Uber: Buy for scale, integration, and future-proofing against autonomy, not threatened by AV competition but empowered by it.
• Salesforce: Consider taking positions in dominant, data-locked software names after major deratings.
• MSG Sports / Atlanta Braves: Hidden asset value can be unlocked with corporate structure changes or forced sales.
• Scott’s Miracle-Gro: “Busted” staple companies under family control can be ripe for M&A or activist action after a bad stretch.
• MGM: Sometimes the best catalysts (first Japan casino) are years ahead—but ensure the investment case isn’t undermined before then.

Closing Thoughts

The episode reinforced that while value investing can be grueling and psychologically taxing, detailed process, patience, and focus on both business value and catalysts can generate superior outcomes — especially during periods of market pessimism and multiple compression. Stock picking still has a place in a market where crowd narratives dominate, but “cheap” alone isn't enough — a catalyst is critical. Boyar’s methodology and mental models offer a master class in fundamental, contrarian investing.

To follow or learn more from Jonathan Boyar:

• boyervaluegroup.com
• “World According to Boyar” podcast & Substack

For more Compound & Friends episodes and disclosures:

• Ritholtz Wealth Management Podcast Disclosures