← The Compound and Friends
The Compound and Friends
JPMorgan Earnings, Trump vs Powell, Goldman’s Revenge, Apple + Google Deal
01:04:22
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- [00:18]
A
Gangsters, we're back. Sup? Yo, you know what zebra striping is?
- [00:25]
B
No.
- [00:27]
A
You don't?
- [00:28]
B
I don't.
- [00:28]
A
Never heard of this. I'm gonna try it this weekend. Zebra striping is when you go out, like to a party or for drinks, but you alternate. You do like a drink and then something in the middle and then a drink and then something in the middle, like either sparkling water or like even diet Coke or just like a bottle of Poland Spring. And it like supposedly prolongs the night, reduces the possibility of hangover and still allows you to be like socially having had a drink and not like the guy that's like, I'm doing dry January. But like, you're not doing. You're not doing four drinks in a row and then waking up the next morning with your head on fire.
- [01:11]
B
Oh, we could try it tomorrow.
- [01:13]
A
The kids are calling it zebra striping. And I said, that sounds like my kind of version of dry January.
- [01:21]
B
That's too much. Four syllables. I don't like.
- [01:25]
A
No. If you say it fast, no.
- [01:27]
B
All right.
- [01:28]
A
All right, guys. Welcome to what are your thoughts? America's favorite live stream about markets, the economy and life. My name is Downtown Josh Brown for first time listeners. Nice to meet you. I'm here with my co host, Mr. Michael Batnik. Michael, say hello.
- [01:45]
B
Did we just open the show with zebra striping? Yeah.
- [01:48]
A
Why don't you zebra stripe a hello for the folks. Guys, we have a live chat going as usual. Love to see all my regulars here in the chat, all the gangsters. Welcome Cliff Peebles, Chris Hayes. Giancarlo is here. Charisma Spigot is back. Akbar Muhammad is here. Everybody's here. Benjamin Lupu is back. Georgie D. Trying to give all the regulars their props today. We appreciate you guys. Thank you for coming this week. Each and every week you're already cracking me up in the in the live commentary. So good to see you guys. We have a sponsor tonight. Like to let you know. Tonight's sponsor is our friend, Betterment Advisor Solutions. Michael, tell us about betterment.
- [02:34]
B
What could I say about. What can I say about betterment? What growth Strategy are leading RAs using that most firms don't? Josh, I don't know segmentation. Some clients needs are sophisticated and require deep ongoing planning. Some clients needs are simple like those in the wealth accumulation stage. If you're zebra striping, for example. The smartest firms know planning shouldn't look the same for every client. But the experience should always be exceptional. And now it can be. With Betterment Advisor Solutions, it's the platform built for segmenting your book and streamlining those smaller and simpler accounts. The onboarding experience is automated and paperless. The portfolio management is streamlined and tax efficient. The client experience is consistent and modern. And the impact isn't just felt by your clients. It's felt across your entire practice. Imagine a back office that's humming, a team that's thriving, and a service model ready to scale. Betterment Advisor Solutions. Your biggest regret will be not doing it sooner.
- [03:27]
A
Learn more learn more@betterment.com advisors. Thank you to Betterment. All right. And we are proud user and client of Betterment Advisor Solutions. Earnings season already. Wasn't it just earnings season like the other day? Is it coming faster and faster?
- [03:49]
B
You know what it is? The they end late. You know what I mean? Like, it just, it just, it goes.
- [03:55]
A
On for not a season anymore. You're exactly right.
- [03:58]
B
It, like off, it tails off. Like we heard from Nike like four days ago. I mean, I know it's not true, but it's a long. It's a long, long season. But you know what? We're about to get into the thick of it, Josh. It's about to get me, and I'm here for it. I love hearing from the financials, you know I do.
- [04:11]
A
So this is one. I agree. This is one of my favorite weeks of earnings season, the first one when we hear from the financials, because I just think there's like so much anticipation that all of a sudden the bank CEO is going to come out and tell us how fucked up everything is. And they never do.
- [04:26]
B
Well, you know what's hilarious? I don't really care that much, no offense about Sweet Green or Chipotle, because like, all of that sort of shit is idiosyncratic. It's the stock price multiple. It's the locations, it's the consumer. It's this, whatever. That's your own problem. I want to hear from the banks that serve everybody. How is everybody in the aggregate doing? That's what I want to know.
- [04:49]
A
Yeah. And they. It's like 36 months of in a row of them coming out and being like, I know you want us to tell you that we're seeing signs of deterioration. Sorry, foiled again. Not this time. Not this queue. And once again. But let me set the table. Ed Yardeni was writing about the Q4 2025 earnings season just generally. And he's saying collectively we're looking for an 8.6% year over year increase for these Q4 earnings, which is pretty good market wide. And he Points out they were way too cautious for the first three quarters and he thinks they'll be low yet again. He thinks 10 to 12%. If we do it, if we finish this earnings season, which it'll be a while before we can confirm it with another double digit earnings growth year over year, it to me justifies the vigor of the rally that we experienced in September, October, November, like the market was right yet again. Let me show you Ed's chart on financial earnings. This is all commercial banks, loans and leases. Like I'm not like a cycle expert, but just looking at large banks and small banks correlated, seeing this uptick in loans and leases, I think it's like, all right, do we want to get bearish now? Like of all things now is when we want to get bearish. Next one is the spread between the 10 year and the 2 year. Like this is just, this is the meat and potatoes of how banks make their money. So JP Morgan reported like $95 billion in net, in net interest. And this is like the bread and butter of the banking business. So that's not a profit. Of course there are expenses that go along with that. But like banks make their money in the net interest margin and that, that treasury yield curve spread is kind of a stand in for that. I'm going to show you a couple more. This is U.S. corporate bonds and equity issuance. This is another way large Wall street banks make money, literally selling IPOs, selling stocks, selling bonds, helping the treasury market as a dealer. And this will show up in these earnings and already is next one is loan and lease losses. So we don't want to see this number tick up. We want to see this one flatline or God forbid even tick lower. It is, it is. I mean, I don't know what, I don't know what you want. Like I know people want a change in the narrative and they want, they want everyone else to buy into this. Like the consumer is barely hanging on by a thread. Maybe someday, not today.
- [07:35]
B
We.
- [07:35]
A
What was one other I wanted to show payroll employment next. What else do I have? All right, so this is like the forward earnings for the index itself. And you can see we're obviously at the higher end of the historic range, somewhere around 13 14x but not the highest ever. And again we're at a pretty good part of the cycle here where there's tons of activity in all aspects of, of these banks actual business. Do the last one. Skip the last one. This is the financial stocks in the s and P500, the 400 and the 600. So that's the mid caps and the small caps. Like, this is not a story of haves and have nots. This is not a story of, you know, mega cap outperformance dominating. They're all telling you the same story. So either everybody on earth is wrong and you are the only one that knows how bad things really are, or you sort of have to just look at this confluence of things and say, okay, these banks are in a really good position. And that's probably because the economy's pretty good. It's, it would be hard to make the case. The economy's horrible, therefore the banks have a lot of good things to say. What are your thoughts?
- [09:01]
B
Yeah, you're right. That would be unusual. Every quarter we hear Jamie Dimon, we sort of respectfully roll our eyes of all of the risks that are to come and all of the reasons to be cautious. And sometimes a hurricane is coming, sometimes there are cockroaches, sometimes we are not. We're underestimating the geopolitical risks. And respectfully, he's the biggest risk manager of the biggest bank in the world. It would be unusual if he was like rainbows and butterflies. That's not what he gets paid to do. He gets paid to worry about risk. But I thought what was so notable about this report is that on, on page one, this is a quote, this is not in the, in the call, which he had some bullish comments on, but this is literally like written down on the report in the release quote, in the release quote, the U. S. Economy has remained resilient. This is Jamie Dimon. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus. The benefits of deregulation at the Fed's recent monetary policy. And then of course, he goes on to say, however, whatever, but he's, he's saying it. He's saying it.
- [10:22]
A
Full year earnings for 2025 for J.P. morgan, $57.5 billion. That's $150 million in pure profit. Every day of 2025, including Saturdays and Sundays, this bank is making $150 million a day in profit, not revenue. But that's, to me, that is just beyond extraordinary. It's, I mean, it's truly, it's unbelievable how profitable this business is, how dominant. And, and actually that's a slight downtick in, in overall net earnings. I think they were 58 billion in 24. But like, again, this, this is like this is the biggest bank in the country and one of the biggest stocks by market cap in the world. And with good reason. I wanted to share. I'm going to skip this. What Barnum said, he basically echoed that on the consumer. We are currently not seeing deterioration across income groups. So that's like the headline. And then Erica Najarian from UBS gets like the fourth or fifth question. The first. The first question was like a stable coin.
- [11:37]
B
Coins. Yeah, that was. That was interesting.
- [11:40]
A
I don't fully understand what the issue was there, but basically she's like, jamie, can you make us feel better? So she's like. Investors were feeling quite optimistic about the fundamental macro opportunities for the banks in 26 paired with deregulation, of course. And I think this weekend sort of shook their confidence given the social media post. But about credit card cap rates, Trump said 10% cap rates on credit cards as of January 20 or something. I don't think it's going to happen, but. And then they did. The Department of Justice subpoenaed Chair Powell and investors kept saying over the weekend, quote, we can't wait to hear what Jamie has to say about the 2026 outlook. So she's like, make us, Jamie, can you make us feel better? And he sort of did. He said, I think when you're guessing what the macro environment is going to be, if you ask me in the short run, call it six months and nine months and even a year, it's pretty positive. Consumers have money, there's still jobs, there's a lot of stimulus coming from the big, beautiful bill. Deregulation is a plus. Not just for banks. Banks will redeploy capital. But then he's like, look, geopolitics is an enormous amount of risk. So it's like, you have to bet and he goes into the dead and blah, blah, blah. So you have to, like, do what Jamie Dimon does. You have to balance two ideas in your head at the same time. The environment is pretty good, but there are also huge risks out there. We just don't know if they're gonna affect us in the next six months, nine months, 12 months, nobody does. Or ever at all, quite frankly. Or maybe they're the wrong risks that we're worried about. I think, like, to be an investor in 2026 or any year, you kind of have to. You have to, like, do those two things and no risk, right? No risk. But I'm saying things right now are pretty good. And I think that's. That's what he got across.
- [13:35]
B
Yeah. As you're thinking about like allocating your own money, you have to say to yourself should the conditions persist and we go and bull market am I taking enough risk that I'm going to feel good about the upside that I'm capturing? And if it's not and if the wheels fall off, am I taking too much risk that I'm going to bail at an inopportune time? And that's, that's life, that's investing, that's running a business. They were, they were asked directly about, about the cap rate stuff and Jeremy said this is the CFO who leads the call. What's actually simply going to happen is that the provision of the service will change dramatically. Specifically people will lose access to credit on a very, very extensive and broad basis, especially the people who need it the most, ironically. And so that's a pretty severely negative consequence for consumers and frankly probably also a negative consequence for the economy as a whole right now. I don't think anybody who's serious think that this is going to happen.
- [14:32]
A
It would also why it won't happen. And then it's like, and then someone's saying oh there's talk that it's going to just going to be about revolvers. And then someone was like what about all the sub credit cards? Like think about how many versions there are of a Visa Card or a MasterCard to varying degrees, subprime borrowers, department stores. Like the idea of all of a sudden there being a cap that makes people just deny credit to millions of people and that that's somehow going to help the affordability crisis. You got to, you have to be absolutely out of your mind. They asked a lot of questions about the proposed takeover of the Apple credit card loan portfolio from Goldman Sachs and I thought this was really interesting. They were talking about how specifically Apple built this technology to be seamless with iOS and it's not like a traditional oh, we'll just take over that credit card business. Like they said it could take up to two years to fold that in to their existing credit card operations.
- [15:35]
B
Who knew he was, Jamie was very complimentary to the tech that they built. But yeah, nonetheless, by the way, I think their earnings were down. I think they took a preliminary or premature charge off from that. But yeah, it was sort of a boring call which is great. There was, there was not really a.
- [15:49]
A
Lot there they spoke about as a long term shareholder. I'll take that born call.
- [15:53]
B
Yeah. And this, the stock market, the stock reacted negatively today. Just, I don't know, whatever it was, it's Been up a lot. I don't think there's anything really negative in the story.
- [16:01]
A
Yeah, I think this thing went from 250 to 350 in the last year. You could understand. Chart on. We have some more earnings this week. I don't. Why does Delta gave guidance today or Delta reported today? Delta reported and gave bullish guidance. We're going to hit that later. Citi and Wells Fargo are tomorrow.
- [16:23]
B
I'm a Thursday guy. BlackRock. Goldman is more.
- [16:26]
A
You love that. You love that BlackRock call.
- [16:28]
B
That's a busy day for me. I do love that blackrock call and the mortgage call, because that's wealth management.
- [16:34]
A
Are you a JB Hunt?
- [16:35]
B
No.
- [16:37]
A
You a JB Hunt guy? You don't care about trucking?
- [16:39]
B
Nope, not a trucker. I don't know.
- [16:41]
A
I'm not either, but I thought maybe you would be. All right, you're up. What do you got?
- [16:45]
B
All right, we're gonna. We're gonna. We're gonna weave on this topic. Josh. I've got a lot to cover. So we're gonna start with Spotify and Netflix. We're gonna go into some sexual stuff, and then we're gonna tie a little bow on this baby. All right. I thought this was super interesting, and I'd love to get your take. Did you know that Spotify and Netflix are the same stock? Like, almost literally? What?
- [17:08]
A
Oh, shit. No. That's funny. Wow.
- [17:12]
B
I mean, this is.
- [17:12]
A
What do you think?
- [17:12]
B
That's. This is remarkable. And it's more than.
- [17:17]
A
A lot of them is involved in an M and A transaction. The other one's not.
- [17:22]
B
There are obvious, like, overlaps. I mean, they're doing business together. They're. They're both in pretty competitive markets and they're Both competing with YouTube, frankly. But they're. They're both getting their shit kicked in.
- [17:34]
A
I think Spotify competes with YouTube, and maybe most people would associate it more competing head to head with Apple Music. But I agree with you. Like, YouTube is YouTube versus Spotify. Podcasts on video versus Netflix. Like, it's almost all becoming one big battle royal.
- [17:54]
B
It's really interesting.
- [17:54]
A
They all want your eyes. That's the. At the end of the day, they all want your eyeballs and your ears. Yeah. So.
- [17:59]
B
Okay, so let's move on.
- [18:00]
A
I never looked at these two side by side.
- [18:02]
B
Dude. It's wild thought back up for a sec. I mean, it is. You don't have to squint. This is the same chart. Okay.
- [18:09]
A
Yeah.
- [18:10]
B
All right. Some. Some really great research. This is from. We're going to start with Turning Point before you throw this chart on. John, we spoke recently about how many active funds underperformed last year. And I don't know what somebody would have had to do to outperform. It was a brutally difficult market. Most stocks underperformed the index and as a result, most sectors underperformed. But the spread by which they out underperformed. Throw this chart on. This comes from Turning Point market research. They do great work. So we're looking at the number of sectors that have lagged the s and P500 by at least 50% over three years. It's as high as it's ever been. It's six sectors have lagged by 50%. So if you're in the wrong sectors, I'm gonna guess it's healthcare, real estate and energy. I can't.
- [19:01]
A
I'm not positive until recently. Materials too?
- [19:05]
B
Yeah, matter of fact. Why? I don't know why I stopped there. It's. It's staples for sure.
- [19:09]
A
I'm guessing staples, definitely.
- [19:11]
B
Right. Like so. All right, so then turn it to Duality Research. He has an awesome chart showing that since the Liber. No, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Not Liberation Day, Lewis. Since. Chat. Gb since. Yeah, so since the. Since the launch, every sector has underperformed the S. P. Safe for tech stocks and communication stocks. So Google and Meta. Okay. But more recently, more recently, if you zoom in a little bit, tech has been getting destroyed, relatively speaking, I think maybe underreported. Josh, did you know this? We're looking at technology. This is, this is zooming in. So over the last 50 days, tech has underperformed almost to a 3 standard deviation degree against the broader index. Did you know this?
- [19:56]
A
No. Like, this is like, this is so recent. Like, this is how. Since how long? Five.
- [20:04]
B
It's 50. 50. 50 days.
- [20:06]
A
50 days.
- [20:08]
B
But I'll do you one better. So, by the way, I think the upshot is that this is, this is not bad. This is the opposite of it. I think this is very bullish. So I've never heard of this next company, Blue Kurdick Market Insights. And I freaking love this chart. Look how awesome this chart is. We're looking at the S&P 500 on the top pane. And those red dots that we're looking at is when XLK. So when tech stocks fall over 1% and yet 350 stocks in the S and P rally, which is unusual, right? Like, because tech is generally a risk on sector. So it's an, It's a relatively Unusual phenomenon. It's happened in the past. I don't know, a dozen times it's happened. But here's what I love, what they did. So they show the average price path, on average, from when that trigger happens in red for all days. Right. Going back to, like, the turn of the century. But what I love so much that they did is they show the average price path since 2016. So the takeaway is like, generally, if you look at the red line, not. Not that bullish. In the short term, forget about the red line. Not forget about it. But if you look at, like, what has happened since 2016, which I would argue is probably more important than data from 2002, it's been kind of bullish. I love this chart.
- [21:21]
A
So the takeaway is because I think people. Because I think people don't understand this, and I don't think I've ever seen it. Put this way, the takeaway is like the XLK falling. Even though they're the biggest, most important stocks, quote, unquote, it's not a negative for the rest of the market. And in fact, it could actually serve as, like, fuel. Do I have that right?
- [21:43]
B
So this is showing. To take it a step further, it's showing when XLK falls 1% and yet 350 stocks in the S P are up on that same day.
- [21:52]
A
Yeah.
- [21:52]
B
So you. You could say, like, oh, the market is losing its leadership. That's probably bad. It's not true. And, and so let's talk about where we are today. What's going on in the stock market Chart could calls it the great broadening. So we. He has a chart showing the cap weighted index of financials, industrials and materials. All things that have not really kicked ass in recent years. And they're kicking ass. And then he shows. I'm sorry, this is cap weight. My bad. The next chart shows equal weight. So it's not just the mega caps like there. It's all working. And this to me, chart off. Josh, what I'm about to show you is so bullish it hurts. Remember that guy, okay, who said there was a guy. There was a guy on cnbc in, like, 2013. I can't remember which strategist it was who said, I'm so bullish it hurts. And everybody freed. That's it. That's who it was. Whatever. I can't remember who it was. Doesn't. Doesn't matter. Look how. Look at. All right, this next chart is getting. Is turning point market research. We're looking at cyclical industries. Okay. And what, what, what Dean has showed is that 90% of cyclical sub industry groups are above their 10 day, their 20 day, their 50, 100 and 200 day. So it's all working, all these cyclical industries. What are the cyclical industries you ask? I'm so glad you asked that question. Next chart. These are all areas that are highly sensitive to a improving economy or at least a decent economy. We're talking about auto parts, casinos, home furnishing improvement and home like restaurants. It's all the stuff that things that people spend money on in good times and conversely pull back in bad times. It's all of the things that you would want to see working and they're all working. Here's the coup de gras. Next chart please. So Dean is showing the green arrow is the S&P 500. When you have 90% of cyclical sub industry groups above every moving average. And if you look at the table on the right. Great job, John. I'm glad you broke it out like this. If you look at like three months later, four months later, since 2009, there's not a lot of red in here, right? Like when all of these things are firing in recent, in modern markets, they're generally right. The market is not always right. But when these things are all firing, it's, it's, it's full speed ahead. Maybe this is time it breaks.
- [24:27]
A
But two, two things. First, we have some guesses of who said so bullish. It hurts in the chat. We have a couple, we have a couple of guesses. So my friend John Suarez says Jeremy Grantham said it.
- [24:43]
B
Yeah, nailed it.
- [24:45]
A
See Paul Breezy, one of the Najarian brothers. I don't think so. I would know. I, I don't think that was them. Chris Hayes. It was not Dan Nathan. Yeah, no shit. I don't remember who said it, but it's a great, it's a great thing we can, we should go look at. But the point I wanted to make, and we're going to hit this later, Sean and I, in our column for CNBC Pro Today, we're talking about material stocks. And my framing of it is like last year was a mid cycle sort of market financials outperforming almost everything industrials. Like that's mid cycle. I think we're starting to pass the baton and doesn't mean we have to have a recession at the end but like we're starting to pass the baton from mid cycle into late cycle. And late cycle is when the materials start roaring. You ever see, you see A chart of like Freeport McMoRan recently. Holy shit. Like, you saw what the oil stocks are doing. ExxonMobil, new record high. Today we're seeing like the oil services, like when you start seeing those cyclical groups and then you start seeing like the materials catch on. That's when you know, like you're in not only a broadened market, but like you could have a couple of years of just like steady economic growth and it doesn't have, you know, oh, this will end badly. Okay, probably. But when, you know, when.
- [26:09]
B
Yeah, in the meanwhile, I badly.
- [26:11]
A
I think we're in a mid to late, late cycle portion of, of what we're looking at. So that's.
- [26:18]
B
I found, I found the clip. It was when Paul Richards, he was the ubs head of FX. This was.
- [26:24]
A
I like that guy.
- [26:25]
B
It was in 2014, but the, the web is saying that Jon Najarian was the actual one that said it. I just remember the headline. So bullish it hurts. Semicolon, Paul Richards. So I don't know who actually said it, but you remember that, right?
- [26:36]
A
Yeah, Paul.
- [26:37]
B
Richard.
- [26:37]
A
Paul Richards is a sweet guy. He was like this British gentleman who they would bring on it. It was still music on every day for a few months. No, no, he still is.
- [26:47]
B
He's still British.
- [26:49]
A
Still British. But I haven't seen him on TV in a long time. I think he was at one of the wirehouses and he would come on like almost every day and do like a five minute spiel on currencies. And then they would look at us on the desk and be like, so what's the trade? And I would just talk about whatever I wanted to talk about. I didn't even react to it because I don't know, I don't, I don't do currencies. But he was, he was a bright guy. I don't remember him saying, so bullish it hurts. But I'm, I think I'm gonna steal it. It's a good one.
- [27:17]
B
It's a good one. So anyway.
- [27:19]
A
So bullish it hurts.
- [27:20]
B
The stock market right now is working and one day it won't, but right now it is.
- [27:28]
A
I just like that the conversation is not Microsoft every day.
- [27:32]
B
I love it. It's enough. More than enough.
- [27:34]
A
I love it. I love it. All right, let's, let's keep, let's keep going. Oh, okay. Apple and Google have entered a multi year deal so that Google's technology will power the Siri voice assistant reboot. So we're gonna get a better Siri because Siri now is fairly awful. We're gonna get like an AI powered Siri, which they promised us over a year ago, finally happening. And it seems like it's gonna be the guts of it. Inside the wrapper will be Gemini. After careful evaluation, Apple determined that Google's AI technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple foundation models and is excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for Apple users, two companies said Monday in a joint statement. Did Apple win the LLM war by not playing?
- [28:39]
B
The story is still being written. We'll see.
- [28:42]
A
Do the users give a shit if it's Google technology or Motorola technology? Inside of, do the users care what LLM Siri is running on top of? Or do the users just want Siri to be awesome?
- [28:59]
B
So I'm curious, I mean, yes, rhetorical question. They want to be awesome. I'm curious to know what the economics of this deal are. So does Google pay Apple $20 billion for Chrome to be the default browser? Is it 20 billion a year? It's some crazy number.
- [29:11]
A
Well, that was, that was the deal. And I think, I think the, I think the remedy is that now Apple has to make like DuckDuckGo be a menu option that people could have as their default brow search engine if they want it. Like, like it was about Chrome the browser. And then it was like, but Apple has Safari. So Chrome ostensibly competed with Safari. What it was really about was to be the default search inside of the iOS environment and in all the Apple apps because Apple doesn't do its own search. And Google paid a lot of money for that. And as a result, every iOS user, a billion people standardized on Google. It just became their go to. And in return, Google spent all that money. But they got to, they got to a place where they knew everything that everyone was searching about.
- [30:09]
B
Oh, I'm sure, I'm sure it's just brilliant. I'm sure it's a great deal. I'm sure Google is winning like, you know, and Apple's getting $20 billion. I wonder what the economics of this deal are like.
- [30:21]
A
I think for Apple, it almost. It's beside the point, I don't know that they need to tell Wall street, like, look how much money Siri is making us. I just know that they have to.
- [30:31]
B
I just mean, I just mean like, how much is Google paying Apple?
- [30:34]
A
Encroachment.
- [30:35]
B
What they're paying for, for the search is not immaterial. It's a lot of fucking money. So it could be another win for both.
- [30:41]
A
Yeah, no one will know. We'll Never know. But I think like this, the mission critical aspect of this is to have a product that people rave about in the iOS ecosystem that's got an Apple wrapper around it.
- [30:56]
B
You Siri a lot.
- [30:58]
A
I just, you know, I, I vent to it. I like, I don't even want an answer from it sometimes I just want to yell at something or someone. Siri is really perfect for that. I don't know that I get a ton of utility out of it other than connecting my phone calls. Like, like, hey, I don't want to say it because it'll start calling hey, blank call sprinkles. Like that's how you know call Batnik. Like that's helpful for me. I don't. What else do I really do with Siri? Not much. I'd rather talk to Chat GPT honestly. I get at least I get like some answers from that. One of the things with Siri that has to get fixed is you can't ask follow up questions. So if you, so if you say, if you say like hey sir, I don't want to do it. Get me directions to that Chinese restaurant I, I went to last week. It may be able to do that. Maybe not depending on if you used Apple Maps, you know.
- [31:55]
B
And then if you're like dude, a thousand people listening are very happy you didn't just say that right?
- [32:00]
A
And then by the right. And then by the way, and then by the way, you have to be like, you'd be like, you'll try to be like all right. And oh, what street is it on? Or can you call them so I can make sure they're open? And it's, it's what, like you have to start all over again every conversation. And that's the thing that has to get fixed. It seems so obvious and easy. And why haven't they fixed it yet? I really don't have the answer to that. But I do know that Apple is not thrilled with Jony Ives chat OpenAI device coming to market and then not having their solution.
- [32:35]
B
So curious. So to see what that's gonna be.
- [32:39]
A
The next form medallion. It's a medallion that you wear around your neck. Spoiler alert you. It's literally, it's you. You will net. You will never get a date again so long as you're wearing that. What can you imagine? Married imagine it's like wearing a wire walk into a room with a, with a Chat GPT device around your neck. Like a, like an amulet. I don't know you amulet. You know anyone in your life that's going to do that. Like it's like it's hard at the school. You didn't see a picture of it?
- [33:12]
B
I don't know. We walk around with textures. No, I haven't seen it. Okay.
- [33:18]
A
I don't, I don't.
- [33:20]
B
Moving on. All right. The. So Goldman has dive. That's it. I divested itself from all that nonsense distraction. Going to Main street, going to different, different verticals. Consumer banking like it was bad experiment and credit to them. It didn't work. They tried it. It didn't work. They came out alive. Bigger and better. So the Journal reported the deal that they did with Apple. They're. They're expected to offload $20 billion of outstanding card balances at more than a billion dol. The interesting thing is most of the time that's actually sell it up. They're sold at a premium because that's like it's a good business. They say on average of 8% discounts are rare. So they say the discount on this deal reflects a high exposure to subprime borrowers. And just the idea that Goldman is lending to subprime borrowers. I know it's like via Apple. It just, it's so far afield from, from Goldman Sachs. I mean it's Goldman freaking Sachs. So they launched the card in 2019. A lot of fanfare. But the amount the losses started to grow in 2022 and they lost. I mean holy. I didn't realize it was this bad. They lost more than $7 billion on a pre tax basis since the beginning of 2020 on not just on this but on its consumer lending business, the member Green Sky. I can't remember who they sold that to. They had a General Motors program, credit card program that didn't go well. And sometimes, you know, sometimes businesses get distracted. They go into the wrong wrong area. But credit to them they were able to come out the other side.
- [34:51]
A
You want to know something funny to us in 2020 in the, in like the 2020s it seemed so off brand correct to see Goldman Sachs doing subprime lending. But that's literally the origin story of the firm. So they, they named their. I guess they had like an online bank slash robo advisor called Marcus Marcus and right. So that was going to be like their consumer facing business. That's not an accident that they chose to invoke the name of the founder for that product. In the 1840s and 50s you know who would give credit to Jews?
- [35:29]
B
Literally nobody.
- [35:31]
A
That's it. So like banking was for the the upper classes who lived on the Upper east side, who lived, like, let's say north of, north of, you know, 60th street and the animals living in Paradise Square and all the stuff you saw in gangs in New York and people living along the river, people living in. In tenements and tents and in dungeons underneath buildings. There was no consumer credit for those people. And a couple of enterprising, mostly Jewish lenders came into that market. The Lehman Brothers were among this group. And Marcus Goldman, and he walked around the Jewish ghettos of Lower Manhattan and he made loans. And it was like handshake loans. But that's the origin of Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs does not have the same origin story as, like, JP Morgan slash Morgan Stanley. These are very different segments that they were born to serve. So it's not really off brand for Goldman to be in that business in the grand scheme of history. But yeah, like, in the modern era.
- [36:41]
B
Dude, we flagged people. We flagged it in real time. This did. This didn't. This didn't feel right. It was. It was weird, dumb.
- [36:48]
A
Like, what. Even if it works, what are you getting out of this?
- [36:52]
B
And we also didn't even mention in this time period it was the United Purchase. Like, they were, they were trying all sorts of.
- [36:57]
A
That didn't work out right now. Solomon survived it, and he was, he.
- [37:04]
B
Was, he was on thin ice, allegedly.
- [37:07]
A
Like, if you. Bill Cohan was.
- [37:10]
B
Yeah.
- [37:10]
A
And Charlie Gasparino where they were. Charlie was quoting all these, like, Goldman partners who weren't getting their profit distributions, and they were furious.
- [37:18]
B
And he was DJing. And he was DJing to boot.
- [37:21]
A
He was DJing Covid parties in the Hamptons. It's like. Yeah, no, it's. It's like a pandemic. But, like, this is East Hampton. You, like, you know, like, Leo is here. I'm DJing. Like, it was like that kind of thing. I thought that was kind of. I thought that was kind of cool. I admire the fact that he survived. And you know what? We lionize these technology guys for, like, these pivots and trying new things and, like, making huge gambles and putting their, their foot on the pedal. I think the takeaway here is, like, the standard is different. When you run a systemically important financial institution, a little bit of innovation is okay, but the types of swings that Salomon was taking are not historically rewarded by Wall street and by the investor class. We don't. We don't want to see that much innovation at a, at a Goldman Sachs.
- [38:14]
B
Yeah, it's unusual. I Think it goes, it goes to the power of the brand. Right? Like the fact that their, their customers were able to look past like the customers that matter, their investment banking customers.
- [38:25]
A
That's it. Right, that's who matters. Hedge funds, private equity corporations. The people that look at Goldman Sachs as Goldman Sachs, like it's a, it's meaningful to them. They got over it like they did a credit card with Apple. Who cares?
- [38:41]
B
Let's. Okay, go ahead.
- [38:45]
A
Well, this is the drawdowns. This is the Solomon era. So obviously like 2020. You don't, you don't look at that drawdown of 45% and say that has anything to do with David Solomon.
- [38:58]
B
No.
- [38:59]
A
So he. Right, there's nothing to do with him. So he came in on October 1, 2018. So this chart goes back to like the summer of 2018. But this, this stuff. In 2022, this stock had the same drawdown as like a Mag 7 and it stayed down for two. It looks like two, two years. Little bit of a scare this year, this past year from the, from the tariff stuff. But like this thing is at an all time high. Is a $900 stock now looks, looks pretty unbelievable. The cumulative return for Goldman Sachs since July 1, 2018 is 403% which is 24% annualized over that same period. The S&P 500 cumulative is up 187. So Goldman is more than double or 15% a year. S and P, the XLF is only up 136% in the age of David Solomon. So that's 12% annualized. So Goldman Sachs is double the XLF on an average annual basis. So if you're one of these, if you're one of these pricks who was giving Charlie Gasparino quotes about how horrible David Solomon is two and a half years ago, probably not using your real name, you have my permission to apologize to the man because this is as good as any. I don't know if Morgan Stanley is much better. Maybe it's a little bit better. This is pretty, pretty damn good. I think you'd have to agree.
- [40:32]
B
Yeah.
- [40:33]
A
Yes. Okay. All right. The Jay Powell thing, we're not going to get political here. But I do want to play this. John, hit it.
- [40:43]
C
Good evening. On Friday, the Department of justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings.
- [41:04]
B
Traitor.
- [41:05]
C
I have deep respect for the rule of law and for Accountability. In our democracy, no one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the Administration's threats and ongoing pressure. This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role. The Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures, made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation. I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. Thank you.
- [42:40]
B
Lock them up.
- [42:40]
A
All right. Takes. Give me takes from me.
- [42:44]
B
You want takes?
- [42:46]
A
Yeah. What are your statue?
- [42:49]
B
My take is how could there be. How could there be any other take than the rational one here? This is.
- [42:56]
A
What do you think is the rational take here?
- [42:59]
B
I don't think that we should be using this much overt political pressure to influence the head of the Federal Reserve. How could there be any other opinion? I don't care who you voted for, okay?
- [43:12]
A
I don't want to be called maga, Josh, in the comments this time, but here's an alternative. Here's an alternative opinion, and I'm not saying that I like this kind of thing, all right? But why does it cost two and a half billion dollars to renovate the Fed? The Fed's headquarters in Washington, D.C. nothing. But no offense to Washington, D.C. i've been there. It's very nice. Nothing in that city is. Should be worth two and a half billion dollars. No offense. No offense. Why is that the. Why is that the dollar amount that the Federal Reserve's headquarters is costing and why is the Fed putting itself in this position of having to answer for a dollar amount like that?
- [43:50]
B
Okay, that's an awful.
- [43:51]
A
Is not a. Is not. That's a take.
- [43:53]
B
That's a take. I mean, you didn't tell me to come with takes. I just thought that we were just going to call out the Fact that.
- [43:59]
A
What the. What do you think? What are we doing? What are we doing here?
- [44:02]
B
All right.
- [44:03]
A
A lot of Republicans agree with you, Mike, and a lot of people.
- [44:08]
B
Allow me, Allow me to go, Stephen, a. For a minute. Hold on. I got it. I got it. Do you want to take. No, I'm just kidding. Keep talking.
- [44:12]
A
A lot. A lot of the people that normally just like whatever the administration says, they just repeat it. Here's Senator Thom Tillis, Republican. If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within. Is he. Wait a minute.
- [44:26]
B
He's a. He's a. He's a Republican. In name only, my friend.
- [44:29]
A
No, he's not a Republican, is he? Hold on for. I butcher this because I had a couple of things to say. Yeah, Republican.
- [44:38]
B
He's a mom. Donnie. Republican.
- [44:40]
A
He's a Rhino. If there are any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question. I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed, including the upcoming Fed chair vacancy, until this legal matter is fully resolved. Well, Tom, I hope you enjoy Guantanamo.
- [45:08]
B
Yeah, this guy's fired.
- [45:10]
A
Enjoy your time in El Salvador. All right. I think the down the middle take is that there are people in the Trump administration that wanted to do this, but not everybody in the administration.
- [45:23]
B
Trump said he wasn't even aware of this. Correct. Now you might say that's nonsense.
- [45:27]
A
It's going to. Which means it's going to quietly go away. My guess, it's. What is the point he's out in May. Is it retribution? He's got, he's got two meetings left. What do we do? Like, even if, even if you now, if this is really about fraud, like building fraud, I guess there's a percentage chance that that's really what instigated this.
- [45:52]
B
Yeah, I don't know what do.
- [45:55]
A
I'm not in the room.
- [45:57]
B
Allegedly. Allegedly Bessant has been in a zero saying, maybe let's not do this.
- [46:03]
A
I bet you he didn't put it that way. I bet you he put it like this hurts you. This doesn't mean let. Not, let's not do this for the sanctity of the, of the institution. Like, let's not do this because yo, there's an affordability problem. Republicans are losing on that issue. You don't, you don't want to look like you're meddling with, with the Fed. It's like it's not going to help the Cause of what we're saying is important here. So I think it's. But I think it. Let's put this, let's put this graphic up. Did you, did you LOL at this? I stand with Jerome Powell. Who's in this. Statue of Liberty, Churchill, Abe Lincoln. Is it Tom Brady in the back?
- [46:49]
B
I think it's Aaron Hernandez.
- [46:51]
A
Oh, it's.
- [46:51]
B
I think it's 81.
- [46:56]
A
Squidward. That's the, that's the bad boss in Spongebob, right? That's his name. All right. I, I loud. I posted this in July. I was totally joking. I did this as a. What's. What's known as a diptych. It's two images juxtaposed with one another. I thought. This is funny. I never thought it would come true. I would say the GOP is definitely worried about getting hammered in the midterms. Not Trump as much, but, like, the people that are actually up for election or reelection, they're losing on the affordability issue amongst independents. That's not my opinion. That's what the polls say. And, you know, they could point to stuff like gases, $3 and change at the pump and a national average. They are getting encouraging stuff out of the housing market, especially. Rents are coming down pretty substantially. Like, they have some stuff in their favor, but people are just still pissed about prices and health care and, like, it's just not going away. Which is why you see the spaghetti cannon firing things like 10% cap on credit card interest rates. The mortgage thing. We're going to buy 200 billion worth of mortgages to push down the cost of a mortgage, which I'm actually in favor of. I think it's. I think he should have done it five years ago. But you're seeing a lot of this kind of like, populist stuff being floated out there as kind of their answer to, like, what are we going to say in the midterms if people are still mad about affordability? Half the Republicans are saying there is no affordability crisis. They're saying it's a Democrat hoax. Things are great. The other half are saying, no, there is an affordability crisis, but it's Biden's fault and we're fixing it. So those are like kind of the two opposing ideas within the Republican Party. And then the White House is basically saying we need lower rates to fight inflation, which I'm not 100% sure how that works, but I think what all these things add up to. You want to be in material stocks because you're getting a new Fed Chair in May and they're going to run it hot. I don't know how hot. I don't know if they're, if they're going a 2% interest rates just to show that they have the power to do it, but they're going to push rates down. This is a Michael Hartnett chart. Put this up. He put this out in December. This is showing 10 year commodity returns versus bond returns. And I think the current rate of 10 year commodity returns versus bond returns as of last month is 8.2% average annual, which is a high dating back to the late early 1980s. Is that what that looks like? So it's very rare to. Or at least dating back to 05. It's very rare to see 10 year historical returns of commodities beating bonds to this extent is the point that Hartnett is making. What do you think about that idea?
- [50:04]
B
Which part?
- [50:06]
A
A new bull market for commodities as a result of the economy running hot.
- [50:10]
B
Yeah. You know what's so interesting?
- [50:11]
A
Market getting ahead of that.
- [50:13]
B
Yes. And I think it's really fascinating that the biggest commodity of them all is not participating like at all. Energy, oil, it's not moving 60 plus.
- [50:23]
A
Today, starting to percolate.
- [50:26]
B
But yeah, it's all working. Energy stocks.
- [50:32]
A
My best stocks, the market list has seven or eight energy stocks on it for the first time. And I bought, I told you I bought Exxon, which we talked about a couple weeks ago. I think, I think this, the sector is just due like I know that's not how it works, but it sort of does. I, I also we have this home builder chart. If we get a housing cycle, material stocks are going to continue to rip because copper and companies that do everything from Sheetrock to concrete to like it's just, it's all, it all becomes one trade. And the XHB love that mortgage news. What Trump wants to do on mortgages, which I think is really a smart move. And if you, if you just sort of picture like a new housing cycle started, it's like yet one more reason that you're going to want to be in these commodity stocks.
- [51:27]
B
Josh, do you have, you have a chart? You have a chart. You have chart software up on your screen. I want you to punch in a thicker punch in lo w and zoom out a little bit. Like normally, normally we talk about Home Depot when we're talking about the segment. Home Depot is the premier brand. Lowe's look so much better. Like look, look at this chart. This is going to pop up on your list very soon.
- [51:51]
A
Lowe's, it Might be on the list already. Lowe's is roaring. Roaring. It's. Yeah, it's got a lid on it. 285.
- [51:59]
B
So hard, hard resistance around here. But if it gets going, I mean, blue skies, there's no. There's no sellers, there's no higher prices.
- [52:09]
A
Yeah. 22 multiple, about the same as the market.
- [52:12]
B
You know, it's interesting. Look at Home Depot. Contrast that. Like Home Depot looks like shit in comparison. I mean, still the last couple of sessions.
- [52:19]
A
But the difference between these two is one of them, like, makes the case to Wall street that it's better in the professional market and the other is better in the retail market.
- [52:27]
B
I think that's Home Depot. Is the. Is. Is that one.
- [52:30]
A
No, I think it's the other way around.
- [52:31]
B
Okay.
- [52:32]
A
I mean, they both serve both, so who the hell knows? Can I show you some of these materials charts that we wrote up? Here's Martin Marietta. Let me say. So this is a $40 billion market cap. This is aggregates, concrete, cement, you name it. Like, this is an obvious breakout. We wrote it up today. Vulcan Materials, VMC. This is also 40 billion. Same chart. You can obviously see this consolidation period being burst through like the Kool Aid man. You could own both those stocks. The bigger one is the crh, which is like globally. Like, it's a bigger company, bigger market cap.
- [53:10]
B
I don't know any of these names.
- [53:12]
A
This is less well known to, like, casual investors. I think more people know Vulcan. But these are. These are all breaking out. And these are all very much breaking out because we're probably running things hot and the price of all of these materials is going higher. So. All right, last thing. The Delta News. So the CEO is saying 20% jump in earnings for 2026 and margin expansion.
- [53:38]
B
It's unbelievable. Yeah.
- [53:41]
A
And they're now doing more business in first class in dollar terms than they are for the entirety of the main cabin. Are you surprised by that? No, that's as of Q4.
- [53:50]
B
I'm not surprised.
- [53:51]
A
Not surprised.
- [53:52]
B
No.
- [53:52]
A
Okay. Ed Bastian said Delta sits at the top of the K in the so called K shaped economy. With more revenue coming from higher spending customers. Quote, we're looking at our seat growth in the coming year. Effectively none of our growth in seats will be in the main cabin. Virtually all will be in the premium sector. Make the whole plane first class. No main cabin. Do it for. Do it for me. Main Cabin ticket revenue fell 7% in Q4. Premium ticket revenue rose 9%. So premium is 5.7 billion worth of ticket sales. And main cabin is 5.62%. So coach is now the smaller part of the ticket sales that they're doing. You think that reverses anytime soon? What are your thoughts?
- [54:47]
B
No, I don't think that it reverses anytime soon. And given that foreign travel was a headwind in 2025, the fact that they produced record revenue, record earnings, they did so in Q4, it's remarkable. It really goes to show that how the top of the K is doing. And also, and also they said that they are seeing an acceleration so far in the first quarter. So not no surprise there. We know the top of the K is doing very well and it's, it's showing in the numbers.
- [55:13]
A
Are you an airline slot snob?
- [55:15]
B
Yes. You know, I'm a guy.
- [55:17]
A
You're a Delta guy. I think I am too, but I'm really a JetBlue guy. But I say I'm a Delta guy. I love, I love Delta. I really do. And it's noticeable.
- [55:25]
B
It's not too late to switch.
- [55:26]
A
Why the planes cleaner? What the hell is wrong with these other airlines? Why is the plane physically presentably cleaner?
- [55:33]
B
I don't know what they're doing that's so much different than the competition, but they are smoking them. I've taken a lot of flights over the last couple of years and I've had one lousy experience that wasn't their fault. It was weather related, like not, not a bad experience.
- [55:47]
A
So we've been over this. The reason I'm JetBlue is because I have four family members taking planes all over the place and we need to move miles betwixt each other. And Delta doesn't let you do.
- [55:57]
B
Can I tell you something?
- [55:58]
A
They let me do that. I would never get bored of JetBlue flight again.
- [56:00]
B
Drain your miles on JetBlue. Do not pay for another JetBlue flight. Drain your miles like Starbucks points. Just drain them.
- [56:07]
A
The band aid off.
- [56:08]
B
Do not pay for another flight in JetBlue. Drain the miles and then go to Delta.
- [56:12]
A
Yeah, but I still need that ability. I need to move things. It's not accumulated miles. If, if my kid flying to college cancels her flight, I have that in the bank. And if I need to shift that to myself, I can.
- [56:23]
B
No, I get it.
- [56:24]
A
And vice versa with Delta.
- [56:26]
B
Drain the bank. Train the bank.
- [56:29]
A
I think, I think you're missing why I won't do that. Okay. Make. Make the case. You're up.
- [56:34]
B
All right. I'm going to make the case. What case am I making? Josh, I want to say.
- [56:39]
A
Oh, Dude, I got stopped out of it. I see, I see you doing software. I got stopped out of Adobe today.
- [56:44]
B
So I whacked off.
- [56:45]
A
I knew it was going to happen.
- [56:47]
B
I whacked off Adobe yesterday and I want to.
- [56:49]
A
Sucks.
- [56:50]
B
I want to say this, so no harm, no foul. I lost 2% of the trade. No big deal. Yeah, we respect trends, you and I and every once in a while we get cute. But when you are bottom fishing, you have to have stops. You have to position, size it appropriately because the market is usually right. There's a big difference between buying a gap down. When something gaps down 20%, you just say overreaction for selling. I'm taking the other side. Different, very different versus because gaps get filled on both sides, upside and downside. We saw that in Chipotle, a stock that I hated last quarter. Guess what? I'm an idio. Gap got filled. But there's a very, very big difference between the, between a gap down and a persistent bleed. When you see a persistent bleed that is just down, down, down, down, down, you're probably wrong and the market is probably right. That has to be your default setting. Now we might be setting up for an amazing trade in in the future where Adobe might look ridiculously cheap today. That's not my game. Okay, I don't think it's your game either. That's possible. But chart on.
- [57:48]
A
Could not agree with. Could not agree with you more.
- [57:50]
B
Okay, so I'm looking at an equal basket of Adobe, Workday, Intuit, Salesforce and Servicenow. And some of these are great businesses. But guess what?
- [58:01]
A
Who gives a. Whack them out. Whack them.
- [58:04]
B
Whack them out. Whack them off. This. The stocks are not working. In fact, those stocks off of your.
- [58:09]
A
Screen as soon as you can and revisit them.
- [58:12]
B
Yes.
- [58:12]
A
When they give you a reason to.
- [58:15]
B
So glad. So I. I'll revenge trade Adobe. But guess what? Not. Not until I see a convincing sign of a bottom. See ya. I will revisit you at a later point. Okay, but here's. Here's the other. Here's the other.
- [58:27]
A
I'm rooting for it to go to. I am now rooting for it to go to zero. You know me.
- [58:33]
B
So, okay. Did you know that the Russell 2000. Damn it. I forgot to put this chart in here. Hold on. What did Sean and Matt say to me? The Russell 2000 has underperformed the S P500. Now I don't have this chart off. Please hold on. Bear with me for eight of the last nine Years. I'm double checking because I thought that was right, but it seems hard to believe. Eight of the last nine years. It's underperformed House way.
- [59:03]
A
It's just, it's just a hyper scale.
- [59:05]
B
Okay.
- [59:05]
A
That's really all.
- [59:06]
B
I think we might have. I think this might be the year. Josh. I know I just said like don't fight the trend, but last year.
- [59:12]
A
No, no, the Russell did. The Russell did. Oh, the Russell did like 10.
- [59:16]
B
10. But, but this is not, this is not. This is. The bleeding has stopped. Chart on. This is the ratio. This has turned. We're turning up. Yeah, we're turning up.
- [59:27]
A
You know, it's different. You know, the problem is. Chart off. Last week we talked about a phrase from semblance. The internal logic of the market. How basically the highest margin, the best ROE stocks are also the ones with the best performance. Performance. And they're. And the highest multiples. A small cap universe is like a 5% profit margin and the S&P is like 14 and a half and they're turning up 15.
- [59:54]
B
I, I'm making the case those pro.
- [59:56]
A
If, if, if they have a boost to profit margins, they will be re rated higher.
- [60:01]
B
Yeah. So I think you could see it.
- [60:03]
A
I think it'd be right. Okay.
- [60:04]
B
All right, mystery chart.
- [60:06]
A
So we like the Russell.
- [60:07]
B
I like the Russell. I do.
- [60:09]
A
All right, mystery chart. I left the price on because I don't, I don't. I don't want to make it like so difficult. It's. This is a Dow component blue chip stock. True blue chip stock. Like a real blue. Not a recent, just a long term blue chip stock. And I'm showing you five years. No, no monthly moving average. Bullshit. I'm giving you an RSI and a price. And I just want to know one thing from you before you guess it.
- [60:38]
B
I'm buying.
- [60:39]
A
Are you a buyer?
- [60:40]
B
Oh, absolutely. Are you kidding me? This is going to be me. This is going to be at one generation.
- [60:45]
A
Generational resistance is now being broken. Correct?
- [60:47]
B
Yeah, no, this is going. Okay, so these are weekly candles.
- [60:51]
A
I think this goes right. I think this like this year goes to 150.
- [60:54]
B
Yeah, I agree.
- [60:56]
A
What is it?
- [60:56]
B
Can you give me like anything?
- [60:59]
A
Yeah, check the live chat.
- [61:01]
B
No, I'm not going to cheat. I don't want to do that.
- [61:03]
A
Okay. Okay, here's something. There's been a recent geopolitical event that this stock reacted to. That's a pretty good hint.
- [61:22]
B
I mean, is it, is it an oil stock? I don't know what else it would be. They're screaming in the chat, the biggest idiot. Yeah. Hey, you know what? It's a little bit harder to do it live. Squeaming a geopolitical. So is this. Is this Venezuela? No, this can't be Venezuela. A geopolitical. Is it Exxon? I mean, is that the. Isn't that the only energy stock?
- [61:40]
A
And look at you. You got it, you got it, you got it.
- [61:44]
B
I was like, overthinking it.
- [61:45]
A
Okay, give me the reveal. All right. You'd. You'd buy the. Out of this stock right now.
- [61:49]
B
Not only. Not only would I. I'm. I'm gonna get long one of these names tomorrow.
- [61:53]
A
I mean, at 119, I'm thinking about averaging up. I have completely drank my own Kool Aid.
- [61:57]
B
Yeah, this is going so much higher.
- [61:59]
A
Yeah. Best stocks in the market. We wrote it up a week and a half, two weeks ago. Maybe I forget it's all blends together, but this is one of my energy stocks and man, does it look good.
- [62:10]
B
Unreal. And yeah, just reaction.
- [62:13]
A
Venezuela, they have.
- [62:14]
B
Shut up.
- [62:15]
A
And they have no business in Venezuela. But it reacted because they. All right, guys, thank you so much for tuning in to the live version of the show. Those of you out in Spotify and Apple podcast land, we have appreciate you if you're watching this on YouTube, thank you so much. And we love all your comments, all the likes, all the subscriptions and guys, especially the reviews. Review the show like, if you're into it. That's the best way to tell the algorithm that this is something that's valuable and more people will. Will join. Join our gang. So please go ahead and do that. Tomorrow is Wednesday, which means all new edition of my favorite podcast, Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. And then we'll do Ask the Compound Thursday, Wednesday. When do we even. I don't even know it's moved before. It's not our fault. Ask the Compound with Duncan and Ben, always a blast. We get to answer live questions from you guys. That is a special event every week when they do it. And you guys could get your questions answered live during Ask the Compound by Ben and Duncan. And then Friday, all new edition of your of your Compound and friends fix. And very special guest this week. We're so excited to run it back with him. And you'll all find out who that is soon. So, guys, thanks for tuning in. God bless. Good night.
- [63:45]
B
Sam.