Podcast Summary: The Compound and Friends

Episode: JPMorgan Earnings, Trump vs Powell, Goldman’s Revenge, Apple + Google Deal
Date: January 13, 2026
Hosts: Downtown Josh Brown & Michael Batnick

Overview

In this episode, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick dive into a jam-packed agenda covering the start of earnings season with a deep focus on JPMorgan and the broader banks, political intrigue around Trump and Fed Chair Powell, the saga of Goldman's foray and retreat from consumer banking, the Apple-Google AI deal, sector trends, and hot markets. The conversation is energetic, sharp, and full of quick wit, as the hosts mix market analysis with memorable banter and actionable insights.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Zebra Striping & Earnings Season Anticipation

(00:17–04:11)

• The episode humorously opens with Josh introducing the Gen Z trend "zebra striping" (alternating alcoholic drinks and water) as an approach for a not-quite 'dry January'.
• They quickly shift to financial content, marking the start of earnings season, and express excitement, especially for the first week of reports from the big banks.

JPMorgan’s Stellar Results & Macro Takeaways

(04:11–15:53)

• The hosts analyze JPMorgan’s Q4 2025 earnings and broader bank sector health, emphasizing:
  • Anticipated 8.6% YoY earnings growth for major banks, with some expecting 10–12%.
  • JPMorgan’s earnings ($57.5 billion in 2025; $150 million profit per day), described as “beyond extraordinary.”
    • Quote: “This bank is making $150 million a day in profit... It’s truly unbelievable how profitable this business is.” – Josh (10:21)
  • CEO Jamie Dimon’s risk-aware optimism echoed in the release:
    • Quote: “The U.S. economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend and businesses generally remain healthy.” – Jamie Dimon, read by Michael (09:01)
• Discussion of proposed credit card rate caps (floated by Trump at 10%) and why such aggressive regulation is unlikely and potentially dangerous.
  • Quote: “What’s actually simply going to happen is that the provision of the service will change dramatically. Specifically, people will lose access to credit on a very, very extensive and broad basis, especially the people who need it the most, ironically.” – Jeremy (JPM CFO), quoted by Michael (13:35)
• Technical details on JPMorgan possibly acquiring Apple’s credit card portfolio from Goldman, noting it’s a big lift technologically and operationally and could take up to two years to integrate.
  • Jamie Dimon compliments Apple’s tech, but notes it’s complex to merge.
    • Quote: “Jamie was very complimentary to the tech that they built... it’s not like a traditional, oh we’ll just take over that credit card business.” – Michael (15:35)

Sector Trends: Broadened Bull Market and Market Leadership

(16:44–26:47)

• Spotify and Netflix: Michael points out the strikingly similar stock charts of both companies, sparking discussion about market competition, sector overlap, and the battle for attention (17:08).
• Review of sector rotation in the S&P 500:
  • Six sectors have lagged the S&P by over 50% in three years—a historic spread.
  • After the launch of ChatGPT, only tech and communications outperformed until recently; now, tech is sharply underperforming (19:21).
  • Despite tech’s dip, broader market leadership is seen as bullish—so-called “great broadening.”
    • Quote: "It’s not a negative for the rest of the market... in fact, it could actually serve as, like, fuel.” – Josh (21:21)
  • Discussion of “cyclical” industries (autos, casinos, home improvement, restaurants) all working and above major moving averages—a highly bullish technical signal.
    • Quote: “All of these things are firing... it’s full speed ahead.” – Michael (24:27)
  • Discussion points toward the market entering a late-mid or early-late cycle, with materials and energy beginning to roar (24:42).

Apple + Google AI Deal: Siri’s Overhaul

(27:33–32:35)

• Apple and Google’s multi-year deal to power Apple’s Siri with Google’s AI (Gemini).
  • Apple chooses Google’s foundation model for improved performance.
  • The hosts debate whether users care what technology powers Siri or simply want it to work better.
  • Interest in economics behind Apple/Google collaboration—referencing Google’s previous $20B/year deal to be the default search engine.
  • Josh notes the key is providing an “Apple-wrapped” experience with best-in-class AI, regardless of the backend source.
• Bouncing between personal Siri usage and speculation about wearable AI devices (like the forthcoming OpenAI-Jony Ive "medallion")—Josh jokes about the social drawbacks of such wearables.

Goldman Sachs: Retreat from Consumer Lending

(33:20–38:14)

• Goldman offloads its Apple Card portfolio after a failed consumer banking experiment, selling $20 billion in balances at a rare discount due to high subprime exposure.
• Discussion of the historical irony: Although subprime lending seems off-brand now, it’s actually part of Goldman’s 19th-century legacy.
  • Quote: “That’s the origin of Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs does not have the same origin story as J.P. Morgan ... to us in 2020 … it seemed so off brand to see Goldman doing subprime lending, but that’s literally the origin story.” – Josh (34:51)
• Despite missteps, Solomon’s tenure as CEO resulted in GS massively outperforming the S&P and bank sector indices.
  • Quote: “Cumulative return since July 1, 2018 is 403% ... S&P 500 up 187% ... XLF up 136% ... Goldman Sachs is double the XLF on an average annual basis. So, if you were giving Charlie Gasparino quotes about how horrible David Solomon is two and a half years ago … you have my permission to apologize.” – Josh (38:59)

Trump vs Powell: DOJ Pressure & Fed Independence

(40:31–46:56)

• A segment is dedicated to the news of DOJ serving Fed Chair Jerome Powell with subpoenas over testimony tied to a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation.
• Discussion on the intense politicization of monetary policy, threats to Fed independence, and the possible motivations for the DOJ action.
  • Powell responds with strong remarks about serving “without political fear or favor.”
    • Quote (Powell Statement): "This new threat is … a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President." – (40:42)
• The hosts riff on the media circus, costs of the renovation, and the complex motivations at play—including concerns about this becoming political grandstanding and how it may influence markets and Fed succession.

Commodities, Sectors, and the Case for Materials Stocks

(49:49–53:38)

• Michael Hartnett’s data showing commodities historically outperforming bonds—potential for a new commodities bull market.
• Energy and materials names (Exxon, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Martin Marietta (MLM), Vulcan (VMC), CRH) are highlighted as breakouts or on the verge, with the homebuilders chart also bullish.
  • Quote: “Material stocks are going to continue to rip because copper and companies that do everything from Sheetrock to concrete … it all becomes one trade.” – Josh (50:32)
• The hosts note that if a new housing cycle starts, commodities and materials stocks could continue strong outperformance.

Delta Earnings, Business Model Change, and Airline Loyalty

(53:38–56:28)

• Delta CEO’s report: Premium (first class) outperforms main cabin for the first time—Delta as the top of the K-shaped economy.
  • “Virtually all [seat growth] will be in the premium sector. Make the whole plane first class.” – Josh (53:51)
• Both hosts discuss loyalty—Josh as a JetBlue guy (for transferable miles among family), Michael as a Delta devotee (due to cleaner, better flights).

Trading, Tech Stock Fatigue, and Small Cap Rotation

(56:34–60:07)

• Discussion of recent trading pains (being “stopped out” of Adobe, weakness in SaaS/tech stocks).
• The broader takeaway: follow the trend, use stops, don’t bottom fish unless there’s reason, and “the market is usually right.”
• Potential for small cap outperformance (Russell 2000 has lagged for 8 of the last 9 years, now showing relative improvement).
  • Quote: “I think this might be the year... The bleeding has stopped... we’re turning up.” – Michael (59:26)

Blue-Chip Energy: Exxon’s Generational Breakout

(60:07–62:13)

• Closing challenge: Michael is shown a “mystery chart” (Exxon) which he recommends for generational breakout potential, with targets north of $150/share.
  • “You’d buy the [expletive] out of this stock right now… this is going so much higher.” – Michael (61:49)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh on JPMorgan:
  “This bank is making $150 million a day in profit, not revenue, but pure profit... It’s truly unbelievable how profitable this business is.” (10:21)
• Michael echoing Dimon:
  “The U.S. economy has remained resilient. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend and businesses generally remain healthy.” (09:01)
• On sector breadth:
  “All of these things are firing in recent, in modern markets, they’re generally right... it’s full speed ahead.” – Michael (24:27)
• On Powell’s predicament:
  “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.” – Jerome Powell (40:42)
• On trend following vs. bottom fishing:
  “When you see a persistent bleed that is just down, down, down, down, down, you’re probably wrong and the market is probably right. That has to be your default setting.” – Michael (57:47)
• Energy sector call:
  “You’d buy the out of this stock right now… this is going so much higher.” – Michael, on Exxon (61:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Earnings Season & Bank Health: 04:11–13:35
• Credit Card Cap & Regulatory Risks: 13:35–15:35
• Apple-Google AI Deal & Siri: 27:33–32:35
• Goldman Sachs’ Consumer Banking Exit: 33:20–38:14
• Trump/DOJ vs. Powell: 40:31–46:56
• Commodities & Material Stocks: 49:49–53:38
• Delta/Travel Trends: 53:38–56:28
• Russell 2000/Small Caps Turning: 56:34–60:07
• Mystery Chart (Exxon): 60:07–62:13

Tone and Style

Conversational, fast-paced, and witty, with sharp commentary on market news, memorable one-liners, and a firm stance against the doom-and-gloom narrative—while remaining cautiously alert to risk. Jokes and jargon are comfortably mixed with in-depth market analysis, making it accessible for savvy investors and entertaining for casual listeners.

For further details or specific guests mentioned, see full transcript or show notes.