The Compound and Friends: Mark Mulhern (Manu Invests) on Autonomous Taxis and the Buying Opportunity in Uber

Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Downtown Josh Brown
Guest: Mark Mulhern (aka Manu Invests)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Downtown Josh Brown sits down with Mark Mulhern, known online as Manu Invests, to dive deep into Uber’s position in the evolving world of autonomous taxis (AVs) and to discuss why Uber, despite its recent successes, remains misunderstood and undervalued by the market. The conversation spans Uber’s AV strategy, partnerships, cost structure, the evolving competitive landscape, and key shareholder developments, while also touching on the broader implications of autonomy for consumer behavior and global expansion.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Introduction & Background

• Mark Mulhern's Background:
  • Creator of the best-selling Substack "Fundamentally Sound"
  • Degree in economics and finance; decade of industry experience
  • Executive director at a nonprofit, focuses on making financial research accessible
  • Origin of 'Manu Invests': Stemmed from an old gaming handle, grew into a recognizable online persona (02:10).
• Host Disclosures: Both Josh and Mark are Uber shareholders (03:02).

2. The Uber Valuation Puzzle

• Uber's Numbers:
  • Trades at 16x next year’s earnings with 25% expected cash flow growth and a "big fat buyback"
  • Still seen as the “most disrespected stock in the NASDAQ” (03:34)
• Why So Cheap?
  • Market skepticism around Uber’s future post-autonomy
  • "I think it's one of the most hated and misunderstood stocks out there right now." — Mark (03:57)
• Public Perception:
  • Narrative that Uber is an “app” easily replicated or crushed by tech giants like Alphabet or Tesla, ignoring the decade-long moat Uber built around scale and user base (05:31)
  • "It's not just an app. It's a complex system underneath it all to make it work." — Mark (06:07)

3. Autonomous Vehicles: Threat or Tailwind?

• Binary Thinking Around AVs:
  • Public sees the coming of AVs as an existential threat rather than an opportunity for Uber
• Network Effects and Consumer Behavior:
  • Novelty of AVs will fade; core customer demand is for speed, convenience, and reliability, not robot exclusivity (09:51)
  • "For 99% of people, they don't care if it's a person or a robot. They just want to get where they're going for a reasonable price." — Josh (09:25)
• Scaling AVs:
  • Massive difference between small, geofenced pilots and nationwide/major city rollout
  • "To scale that onto a major city or nationwide isn't going to happen next year or the year after..." — Mark (10:14)
  • Some people will always prefer a human driver, but most will default to fastest, cheapest ride (11:07)

4. The Cost of Subsidizing Autonomy

• Tesla's Approach:

  • Willingness to burn capital for market share, especially as regulatory and technical hurdles remain (13:46)
  • "Tesla investors are a breed of their own and might not see things the same way…" — Mark (14:36)
  • Even Tesla may ultimately list idle CyberCabs on Uber to boost utilization (14:13)
  • "There's no downside of having an empty vehicle be listed on the Uber marketplace." — Mark (14:21)

• Waymo’s Strategy (Alphabet):

  • Partnership model is fluid; could both collaborate with or withdraw from Uber
  • If Waymo pulls out, Uber stock takes a hit; if it extends, Uber surges (16:44)

5. The Uber AV Strategy and Partnerships

• Fragmentation as Strength:

  • Uber’s strategy is to become the “demand aggregator” for many AV/OEM partners (18:52)
  • "Uber becomes the demand aggregator that's got 190 million users…" — Josh (19:25)

• Global Partnerships:

  • Over a dozen partnerships across tech (Nvidia, Aurora, Neuro) and OEMs (Lucid, Mercedes, VW), as well as international players like WeRide, Pony AI, Baidu (18:29)
  • "Already Uber has AVs on the app and there's more coming." — Mark (17:42)
  • The full potential of these partnerships is not yet priced into Uber’s stock (29:54)

• Stickiness and Diversification:

  • Uber is no longer just a ride-hail app—grocery, retail, freight deliveries enhance user stickiness 21:28
  • Even without Tesla or Waymo, Uber could thrive aggregating tier-2 AV providers, benefiting from margin compression and cost reduction

• AV Tech Stack: Nvidia+Uber:

  • Nvidia's AV 'brain' gives legacy car makers plug-and-play autonomy
  • Uber offers unmatched user data, management, and “instant scale”
  • "Every OEM can produce autonomous vehicles, thrown into use by Uber’s fleet and network data." — Josh (26:40)

6. The Financial Impact of AV Adoption

• Expense Breakdown:
  • Removing the driver and insurance from Uber’s cost structure dramatically boosts margins (23:22):
    • Insurance: ~30% of take rate
    • Driver incentives: ~25%
    • "50% of their expense drop[s] right down to the bottom line." — Josh (24:25)
  • AVs can allow Uber to lower its headline take rate while actually increasing profitability (24:28)

7. The Market's myopic view and Underappreciated Global Footprint

• Wall St. Focuses on the U.S.; Uber’s International Expansion Underappreciated:
  • Majority of Uber's growth and partnerships are happening internationally (30:00)
  • Markets in the Middle East and Asia (e.g., via WeRide, Baidu's ApolloGo) are enormous and overlooked (29:54)

8. OEM and AV Vendor Partnerships (Deep Dive)

• Notable Partnerships Discussed:

  • WeRide: Expanding robo-taxi in Middle East; “No one else is in the Middle East” (29:33-29:59)
  • AV Ride (Dallas): U.S. pilot (30:40)
  • Baidu ApolloGo: Key to Asia and Middle East (31:06)
  • Volkswagen: Autonomy in Europe (31:15)
  • Pony AI: Unlocks greater China (32:45)
  • Lucid x Neuro: Deploying 20,000+ autonomous Lucid vehicles (34:00), with Uber holding a stake in Lucid

• Uber’s Asset Light Model:

  • Willing to temporarily own/finance AVs to catalyze rollout, but remains committed to being asset-light long term (34:10-35:25)
  • "I think that's temporary…to get those data points and to show that it's working." — Mark (35:13)

9. Activist Shareholders & The Bill Ackman Factor

• Ackman’s Involvement:

  • Pershing Square holds 30 million shares, possibly 20% of its portfolio (36:20)
  • "He’s been even very vocal... he was already pinging Dara about Hertz/Uber extended partnerships." — Mark (37:57)
  • Ackman signals support for Mark's Uber thesis on X, twice (36:55)
  • If Uber stock falls to Ackman’s cost basis, expect activist moves (e.g., 13D filing, board seat demand) (38:22)

• Dara’s Leadership:

  • Dara’s Expedia experience drives his demand aggregator strategy
  • "This is Marketplace part two. The whole dynamic of rideshare is changing." — Mark (38:40)
  • Airbnb and Expedia were told hotels and airlines would go direct, but aggregators persist (39:24; 40:29)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Misconceptions:

  • "It's not just an app. It's a complex system underneath it all to make it work." – Mark (06:07)

• On Consumer Preference:

  • "For 99% of people, they don't care if it's a person or a robot. They just want to get where they're going for a reasonable price." – Josh (09:25)
  • "My wife is one of them. She's like, I'm not getting in a Waymo." – Mark (11:08)

• On Subsidized AVs:

  • "There has to be a bottom line for cash burning to gain market share. But Tesla investors are a breed of their own..." – Mark (14:36)

• On the aggregator playbook:

  • "If a hotel is going to have a room be empty, why not get it filled at a discounted rate by Expedia? And Uber, as we talked about, they have the financial room to make it appealing to providers like Waymo and Tesla or not them and just doing it through everybody else." – Mark (40:43)

• On the inflection point:

  • "Production is really going to be the wake-up call... as soon as we get actual AV imagery and AV data points... I think the sentiment will really shift." – Mark (27:37)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:10 | Origin of "Manu Invests" | | 03:34 | Intro to Uber discussion & valuation puzzle | | 06:07 | "Not just an app"—why Uber can't be so easily disrupted | | 09:25 | Consumer behavior and AV adoption—it's about convenience | | 13:46 | The risks/realities of subsidizing autonomous rides (Tesla, Waymo) | | 16:44 | How Waymo/Uber partnership moves the stock both ways | | 18:29 | Uber's massive AV partnership network and global diversification | | 21:28 | Uber’s evolution: Not just a taxi app but a sticky consumer platform | | 23:22 | Deep dive on how AVs could drastically improve Uber’s cost structure | | 26:40 | Uber + Nvidia: The coming AV technology ecosystem | | 29:54 | Uber’s underappreciated global operations, notably Middle East, Asia | | 36:20 | Bill Ackman’s massive Uber position and Mark’s viral endorsement | | 38:40 | Dara’s Expedia playbook for Uber | | 40:43 | Aggregator thesis expanded; enduring value proposition |

Conclusion

Mark Mulhern and Josh Brown present a clear-eyed, bullish case for Uber: far from being outflanked by Tesla or Waymo, Uber is leveraging its massive user base, global partnerships, and aggregation platform to ride the wave of autonomy—regardless of which AV player “wins.” Market skepticism is driven by a simplistic “winner-take-all” narrative that overlooks the complex realities of consumer convenience, business model economics, and global partnership networks. As AV rollouts accelerate, and as Uber’s own AV metrics and partnership data become public, the stock could see a significant re-rating. Meanwhile, shareholder activism (notably Ackman’s involvement) provides a floor under the share price and another potential catalyst for appreciation.

Mark’s closing thought:
"I have a lot of faith in Dara. I think he genuinely has vision right here... I think this year is going to be a big year." (39:24)

[ Listen to the full episode for more detailed insights and hot takes on the future of Uber and autonomous mobility. ]