Podcast Summary: The Compound and Friends – "The Craziest Week Ever" (EP.187)

Release Date: April 11, 2025

Hosts: Downtown Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and Special Guest Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington

1. Opening Reflections on Time and Growth

The episode opens with Josh Brown reminiscing about an early show from 2021, highlighting the rapid passage of time and personal growth. Michael Batnick echoes this sentiment, discussing changes in family dynamics and personal milestones over the past four years.

Josh Brown [00:16]: "I can't believe Michael's even like four years ago. It's crazy. We were so young."

2. The Role of AI in Financial Analysis

The conversation shifts to the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in their workflows. Michael Batnick discusses using various AI tools like Grok, ChatGPT, Claude Grok, and Gemini for tasks ranging from research to client communications.

Michael Batnick [02:04]: "AI is fabulous. You know, you ask Grok, how many executive orders have there been in the last two months and 10 days? 102. Here they are if you want to read about it."

They highlight both the efficiencies and limitations of AI, emphasizing the necessity of human oversight to ensure accuracy.

Josh Brown [04:09]: "And you feel confident that it's right?"

Michael Batnick [04:10]: "Ah, interestingly, not 100%."

3. Tariffs, Donald Trump, and Market Volatility

A significant portion of the episode delves into a tumultuous week marked by Donald Trump's tariff announcements. The hosts analyze the immediate and long-term impacts on the bond market, stock market crashes, and investor anxiety.

Josh Brown [09:35]: "We have the third biggest one day return for the S&P 500 since 1990. Second biggest Nasdaq day since the invention of the Nasdaq."

Michael Batnick draws an analogy comparing Trump's behavior to that of a threatening parent, suggesting that Trump's decisions are driven more by instinct than strategic planning.

Michael Batnick [14:28]: "I think survival instinct kicked in. So, like, I don't think it was just Besant, you know, I think it was a whole bunch of stuff..."

Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington adds that Trump's tariff strategy appears more like fear-mongering intended to manipulate market sentiment rather than achieve economic goals.

Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington [21:38]: "This was to your point. Like, at what point do you just say, I know that's right, versus, hey, let's give it a double check?"

4. Economic Polls and Investor Sentiment

The hosts discuss various polls and sentiment indicators that reflect growing unease among investors and the general public about the economy. They cite a poll from Navigator Research showing a significant drop in Trump's economic approval ratings and increased financial anxiety among different voter groups.

Josh Brown [25:00]: "Trump has never had a lower rating from the electorate on his handling of the economy."

Michael Batnick references polymarket data, pointing out a rising expectation of a recession, which peaked during market volatility.

Michael Batnick [29:00]: "It's pretty wild to see it follow the market right here where you saw it jump, plunge yesterday..."

5. Investment Strategies Amid Market Chaos

The conversation transitions to investment strategies during volatile markets. The hosts emphasize the importance of maintaining discipline, avoiding panic selling, and focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term market fluctuations.

Josh Brown [57:30]: "You have to survive, right? Like, you have to be able to survive."

Michael Batnick shares a personal anecdote about a client who panicked and sold during the 2020 downturn, resulting in significantly lower long-term returns compared to a disciplined investor.

Michael Batnick [63:03]: "That's how long five years later you have an annualized 8 and change percent difference. That is huge money."

6. Dividend Investing as a Behavioral Hedge

Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington introduces the concept of dividend investing as a behavioral tool to help investors stay committed during market downturns. She argues that consistent dividend payouts provide emotional comfort and a sense of security.

Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington [77:39]: "Especially in difficult markets like today. I think behaviorally dividend stocks are wonderful because you know that that piece of shit Verizon will pay you your dividend."

Michael Batnick discusses his dividend income strategy, highlighting the benefits of high-yield stocks that offer dependable income.

Michael Batnick [70:15]: "So, you have to stay disciplined. The math favors equities."

Despite some playful tension between the hosts, they agree on the critical role of behavior in successful investing, emphasizing that emotional resilience often trumps asset allocation and market timing.

Josh Brown [84:23]: "All the great things that come from being able to do that. You and I both believe in asset allocation."

7. Closing Thoughts and Recommendations

In their concluding remarks, the hosts reiterate the importance of staying invested, maintaining discipline, and leveraging dividend income strategies to navigate uncertain markets. They also promote Jenny’s book on dividend investing, encouraging listeners to explore dependable income strategies.

Michael Batnick [85:43]: "Charlie has an extraordinary ability to analogize... you want to set up your portfolio to be the ocean liner."

Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington [84:47]: Promotes her book, "Dividend Investing: Dependable Income to Navigate All Market Environments."

8. Final Remarks and Personal Anecdotes

The episode wraps up with light-hearted conversations about pop culture, personal experiences, and future expectations. The hosts share their anticipation for upcoming TV shows and reflect on their mutual respect despite occasional disagreements.

Josh Brown [86:41]: "Philosophies aside, if you watch influencers on Instagram and TikTok, the restaurant influencers, it's the greatest slice of pizza in the world."

Michael Batnick [88:07]: "I'm looking forward to 2028."

Notable Quotes:

• Josh Brown [04:10]: "Ah, interestingly, not 100%."

• Michael Batnick [14:28]: "I think survival instinct kicked in."

• Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington [21:38]: "This was to your point. Like, at what point do you just say, I know that's right, versus, hey, let's give it a double check?"

• Michael Batnick [63:03]: "That's how long five years later you have an annualized 8 and change percent difference. That is huge money."

• Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington [77:39]: "Especially in difficult markets like today. I think behaviorally dividend stocks are wonderful because you know that that piece of shit Verizon will pay you your dividend."

Conclusion:

Episode 187 of "The Compound and Friends" captures a rollercoaster week marked by political maneuvers, market volatility, and heated discussions on investment strategies. The hosts leverage their expertise to provide nuanced insights into navigating tumultuous economic landscapes, emphasizing the importance of disciplined investing and behavioral resilience. Special guest Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington enriches the conversation with her expertise in dividend investing, offering listeners practical strategies to maintain financial stability amid uncertainty.