The Compound and Friends – Episode Summary

Episode Title: The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides, Roaring 2020’s with Ed Yardeni, Alphabet vs. Nvidia
Date: November 26, 2025
Hosts: Josh Brown (A), Michael Batnick (C)
Guests: Charles Lemonides (B, ValueWorks), Ed Yardeni (D, Yardeni QuickTakes)

Overview

This action-packed episode features:

An insider’s look at the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (EVTOL) space with Charles Lemonides, focusing on why Joby Aviation leads the field.
Legendary strategist Ed Yardeni outlining the ongoing "Roaring 2020s" investment thesis, drawing macro parallels and bold forecasts for the S&P 500.
A high-voltage discussion on the evolving battle between mega-cap techs: Alphabet, Nvidia, and the spillover into the broader AI ecosystem.
Spirited exchanges on bubbles, bear markets, sector rotations, and market structure, with numerous actionable insights for investors.

1. The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides

(00:00 – 35:10)

Key Points

Charles Lemonides, founder of ValueWorks, shares firsthand impressions from the Dubai Air Show and makes a comprehensive bull case for Joby Aviation—an EVTOL company he considers best in class.
Joby stands out for advancing to actual test flights, notably performing a point-to-point piloted flight at the Dubai show and advancing towards real service with partnerships and infrastructure.
The hosts and guest contrast Joby’s real-world progress with competitors, demystify EVTOL technology, and debate the path to commercial viability.
Lemonides outlines his investment process—seeking growth companies with significant investments in place but at compelling valuations, a strategy he dubs “quality assets, compelling valuations.”
Discussion also covers similarities and distinctions from early Tesla, the backing of major partners like Toyota, and institutional support (e.g., Baillie Gifford).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On Joby's leadership:
“You're right, there was only one that actually flew their flying machine and is much further along than everybody else... one of them's flying and the others are not.” – Charles Lemonides (05:52)
On the Game-Changer:
“These things make no noise. And that's gonna change people's willingness to have it showing up in their neighborhoods.” – Lemonides (07:13)
On Joby's model vs. competitors:
“Not only does it have revenue today, but has the infrastructure in place... they're going to just swap them in and the helicopters get swapped out. And I think it's gonna be a big game changer…” – Lemonides (06:47)
On Risk and Timing:
“They're going to be hiccups, and the stock, I'm sure, will correct by 30% a whole bunch of times over the next 10 years. The question is whether it corrects 30% from today’s level or from 2 or 3 higher.” – Lemonides (19:21)
On the opportunity size:
“They're gonna be doing tens of billions of dollars worth of sales seven to ten years from now. It's gonna be a big deal.” – Lemonides (32:21)

Other Insights

EVTOL as a category is growing but poorly understood by the public; “flying machines” may be a better catchphrase than EVTOL.
Outlook on manufacturing, constraints, and early-mover advantage—Joby aiming to build/operate, while others (e.g., Archer) are more focused on selling hardware.
Lemonides details his nuanced value/growth strategy, citing Joby and Rivian as cases where “getting here is a good thing.”

2. The Roaring 2020s with Ed Yardeni

(35:32 – 55:47)

Key Points

Yardeni reiterates his “Roaring 2020s” thesis, projecting sustained economic strength, robust earnings growth, and S&P 500 potentially reaching 10,000 by 2029.
Draws parallels to the post-Spanish Flu Roaring 1920s—arguing that demographics, tech innovation (especially AI), and fiscal stimulus continue to drive a resilient “up and to the right” environment.
Explains why cyclical shocks haven’t derailed the bull run, crediting banking reforms, financial market shock-absorbers, an aging but wealthy boomer generation, and the digital revolution.
Expects ongoing productivity boom to support profit margins and high valuations, dismissing concerns about deficits, using the term he originated—“bond vigilantes.”
Supports forecasts with robust historical data showing previous multi-decade 200%+ S&P 500 returns.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On future targets:
“I'm talking about 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2029... and it's only likely to happen if the economy remains resilient as it has, absorbs shocks, and earnings stay remarkably strong.” – Ed Yardeni (40:29)
On the deficit and rates:
“I've been telling people, I'll worry about the debt... when the bond vigilantes worry about it. Right now the bond yield is 4%. It's pretty calm.” – Yardeni (45:31)
On resilience and innovation:
“AI is just an amazing application... it lends itself to just about every business and all of our personal lives. And I think it's just kind of starting.” – Yardeni (43:38)
Historical precedent:
“There's nothing unusual about a roaring stock market. We've had it before. And just because I make the allusion to the roaring 1920s doesn't mean that it's that unique.” – Yardeni (54:00)

Segment Highlights

Various informative charts on S&P earnings, forward P/E, and ten-year decadal returns reinforce the argument.
Hosts push back only mildly, noting timing is the harder call than eventuality; the resilience thesis prevails.

3. Alphabet vs. Nvidia and AI Kingdoms

(57:57 – 96:14)

Key Points

The tension between Google/Alphabet emerging as a “kingdom” in AI (with its Gemini 3 and TPU chips) vs. Nvidia’s status as the reigning AI hardware supplier is front-and-center (61:35 – 91:54).
Discussion highlights recent outperformance by Alphabet shares, sector rotation, and the frothy narratives around AI leaders.
Market is scrutinizing Nvidia's earnings quality and asset depreciation, spurred by prominent skeptics like Michael Burry—leading Nvidia to publicly rebuff comparisons to Enron, WorldCom, and Lucent.
The inversion: for the first time since 2016, Alphabet sells at a higher forward P/E than Nvidia.
Despite AI hype, multiple compression in tech is seen as a healthy sign and not bubblicious; debate ensues on whether rotations can sustain.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On market narratives:
“Whatever narrative you have about these individual kingdoms within the AI Game of Thrones, just understand they still rise and fall.” – Josh Brown (68:35)
On Nvidia’s memo:
“Is it weird that they felt the need to do that like literally invoke the name Enron next to the word Nvidia? I don't know if I love it.” – Brown (94:19)
On valuation dynamics:
“For the first time since 2016, Google sells at a premium on forward PE to Nvidia. That's pretty insane.” – Brown (90:01)

4. Other Market Hot Topics & Segments

FOMO and Strategy (MicroStrategy)

(69:48 – 82:00)

Covers volatility in “digital asset treasury stocks” like MicroStrategy (now ‘Strategy’), whose value is increasingly tied to its Bitcoin holdings.
Volatility and potential index exclusion (MSCI) are looming risks, but guests are skeptical a forced unwind is imminent.
Key insight: “There is a cure for FOMO, and it's simpler than you think. A lot of times the cure is just time. Just letting things play out.” – Brown (79:00)

Bear Markets, Sector Rotations, and Tables/Charts

(83:08 – 87:50)

Explores the difference between 19%–20% equity pullbacks and 40+% recessions—length matters more than depth for investor psychology.
Pimco’s table distinguishing recessionary vs. non-recessionary bear markets:
- Non-recessionary drawdowns average 17% over 5 months;
- Recessionary drawdowns average 27% over 11 months.
“If you know we’re in a stock market pullback but the economy has held up, you should not be waiting for the knockout punch…” – Brown (87:47)

Healthcare Sector Momentum

(96:14 – 103:30)

Health care sector rotation is not short-lived—Eli Lilly breaks the $1T market cap barrier on the strength of GLP-1 and diabetes/weight-loss franchises, dwarfing peers like J&J and Merck.
Instrumentation and measurement device makers (Mettler Toledo, Thermo Fisher, Agilent) have transitioned their business models for recurring revenue and become growth leaders—potential new “best stocks” for investors.

Mystery Charts & Quick Picks

(103:57 – End)

Quick “beauty contest” on breakout stocks, strategic recommendations, and debrief (e.g., Bullish on Zoom on fundamental surprise).
“The answer to FOMO is give it time… there will always be stocks that are 10x’ing that you wish you owned.” – Batnick (80:17)

Memorable Moments

Charles Lemonides narrates his Dubai Air Show adventure and goes “hands-on” in the Joby prototype (24:19).
Ed Yardeni gets his flowers as the originator of “bond vigilantes”—and transmits unshakeable optimism for U.S. equities (45:53).
Nvidia vs. Alphabet as an AI “Game of Thrones” — “The kingdom of Alphabet is currently rising...” (60:34)
Hosts use Tommy Boy references (“look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bull’s ass…”) to illustrate market agnosticism (59:10).

Final Thoughts & Recommendations

Joby Aviation: Best-in-class play on EVTOL/flying cars due to advanced tech and operating infrastructure; possible “Tesla-like” returns but with a distinct capital structure and risk profile.
Macro Outlook: Stay open to continued U.S. resilience, tech-led productivity gains, and above-average equity returns, barring major policy or macro shocks.
Tech Rotation: Alphabet and Nvidia “kingdoms” are fluid; valuation spreads can and do invert. Don’t marry to a narrative.
Healthcare: Don’t sleep on the sector—multiple drivers, durable growth, and transformation underway.
Investing Psychology: Avoid buying into FOMO—waiting for the dust to settle or for value to emerge can still provide great entry points on the right stories.

Reference Timestamps

| Segment / Topic | Time | |---------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Joby Aviation & Flying Cars – Charles Lemonides | 00:00-35:10 | | Roaring 2020s Macro – Ed Yardeni | 35:32-55:47 | | Alphabet vs Nvidia, AI Tech Rotation | 57:57-96:14 | | Bear Markets/Drawdowns Tables & Sector Analysis | 83:08-87:50 | | FOMO / Strategy (MicroStrategy) Deep Dive | 69:48-82:00 | | Healthcare Boom & Best Stock Beauty Contest | 96:14-103:30| | Mystery Chart, Quick Picks, Wrap-up | 103:57-End |

For More

Disclosures: ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures
Ed Yardeni’s QuickTakes: yardeniquicktakes.com
Charles Lemonides: ValueWorks LLC

The Compound and Friends – Episode Summary

Overview

This action-packed episode features:

An insider’s look at the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (EVTOL) space with Charles Lemonides, focusing on why Joby Aviation leads the field.
Legendary strategist Ed Yardeni outlining the ongoing "Roaring 2020s" investment thesis, drawing macro parallels and bold forecasts for the S&P 500.
A high-voltage discussion on the evolving battle between mega-cap techs: Alphabet, Nvidia, and the spillover into the broader AI ecosystem.
Spirited exchanges on bubbles, bear markets, sector rotations, and market structure, with numerous actionable insights for investors.

1. The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides

(00:00 – 35:10)

Key Points

Charles Lemonides, founder of ValueWorks, shares firsthand impressions from the Dubai Air Show and makes a comprehensive bull case for Joby Aviation—an EVTOL company he considers best in class.
Joby stands out for advancing to actual test flights, notably performing a point-to-point piloted flight at the Dubai show and advancing towards real service with partnerships and infrastructure.
The hosts and guest contrast Joby’s real-world progress with competitors, demystify EVTOL technology, and debate the path to commercial viability.
Lemonides outlines his investment process—seeking growth companies with significant investments in place but at compelling valuations, a strategy he dubs “quality assets, compelling valuations.”
Discussion also covers similarities and distinctions from early Tesla, the backing of major partners like Toyota, and institutional support (e.g., Baillie Gifford).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On Joby's leadership:
“You're right, there was only one that actually flew their flying machine and is much further along than everybody else... one of them's flying and the others are not.” – Charles Lemonides (05:52)
On the Game-Changer:
“These things make no noise. And that's gonna change people's willingness to have it showing up in their neighborhoods.” – Lemonides (07:13)
On Joby's model vs. competitors:
“Not only does it have revenue today, but has the infrastructure in place... they're going to just swap them in and the helicopters get swapped out. And I think it's gonna be a big game changer…” – Lemonides (06:47)
On Risk and Timing:
“They're going to be hiccups, and the stock, I'm sure, will correct by 30% a whole bunch of times over the next 10 years. The question is whether it corrects 30% from today’s level or from 2 or 3 higher.” – Lemonides (19:21)
On the opportunity size:
“They're gonna be doing tens of billions of dollars worth of sales seven to ten years from now. It's gonna be a big deal.” – Lemonides (32:21)

Other Insights

EVTOL as a category is growing but poorly understood by the public; “flying machines” may be a better catchphrase than EVTOL.
Outlook on manufacturing, constraints, and early-mover advantage—Joby aiming to build/operate, while others (e.g., Archer) are more focused on selling hardware.
Lemonides details his nuanced value/growth strategy, citing Joby and Rivian as cases where “getting here is a good thing.”

2. The Roaring 2020s with Ed Yardeni

(35:32 – 55:47)

Key Points

Yardeni reiterates his “Roaring 2020s” thesis, projecting sustained economic strength, robust earnings growth, and S&P 500 potentially reaching 10,000 by 2029.
Draws parallels to the post-Spanish Flu Roaring 1920s—arguing that demographics, tech innovation (especially AI), and fiscal stimulus continue to drive a resilient “up and to the right” environment.
Explains why cyclical shocks haven’t derailed the bull run, crediting banking reforms, financial market shock-absorbers, an aging but wealthy boomer generation, and the digital revolution.
Expects ongoing productivity boom to support profit margins and high valuations, dismissing concerns about deficits, using the term he originated—“bond vigilantes.”
Supports forecasts with robust historical data showing previous multi-decade 200%+ S&P 500 returns.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On future targets:
“I'm talking about 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2029... and it's only likely to happen if the economy remains resilient as it has, absorbs shocks, and earnings stay remarkably strong.” – Ed Yardeni (40:29)
On the deficit and rates:
“I've been telling people, I'll worry about the debt... when the bond vigilantes worry about it. Right now the bond yield is 4%. It's pretty calm.” – Yardeni (45:31)
On resilience and innovation:
“AI is just an amazing application... it lends itself to just about every business and all of our personal lives. And I think it's just kind of starting.” – Yardeni (43:38)
Historical precedent:
“There's nothing unusual about a roaring stock market. We've had it before. And just because I make the allusion to the roaring 1920s doesn't mean that it's that unique.” – Yardeni (54:00)

Segment Highlights

Various informative charts on S&P earnings, forward P/E, and ten-year decadal returns reinforce the argument.
Hosts push back only mildly, noting timing is the harder call than eventuality; the resilience thesis prevails.

3. Alphabet vs. Nvidia and AI Kingdoms

(57:57 – 96:14)

Key Points

The tension between Google/Alphabet emerging as a “kingdom” in AI (with its Gemini 3 and TPU chips) vs. Nvidia’s status as the reigning AI hardware supplier is front-and-center (61:35 – 91:54).
Discussion highlights recent outperformance by Alphabet shares, sector rotation, and the frothy narratives around AI leaders.
Market is scrutinizing Nvidia's earnings quality and asset depreciation, spurred by prominent skeptics like Michael Burry—leading Nvidia to publicly rebuff comparisons to Enron, WorldCom, and Lucent.
The inversion: for the first time since 2016, Alphabet sells at a higher forward P/E than Nvidia.
Despite AI hype, multiple compression in tech is seen as a healthy sign and not bubblicious; debate ensues on whether rotations can sustain.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

On market narratives:
“Whatever narrative you have about these individual kingdoms within the AI Game of Thrones, just understand they still rise and fall.” – Josh Brown (68:35)
On Nvidia’s memo:
“Is it weird that they felt the need to do that like literally invoke the name Enron next to the word Nvidia? I don't know if I love it.” – Brown (94:19)
On valuation dynamics:
“For the first time since 2016, Google sells at a premium on forward PE to Nvidia. That's pretty insane.” – Brown (90:01)

4. Other Market Hot Topics & Segments

FOMO and Strategy (MicroStrategy)

(69:48 – 82:00)

Covers volatility in “digital asset treasury stocks” like MicroStrategy (now ‘Strategy’), whose value is increasingly tied to its Bitcoin holdings.
Volatility and potential index exclusion (MSCI) are looming risks, but guests are skeptical a forced unwind is imminent.
Key insight: “There is a cure for FOMO, and it's simpler than you think. A lot of times the cure is just time. Just letting things play out.” – Brown (79:00)

Bear Markets, Sector Rotations, and Tables/Charts

(83:08 – 87:50)

Explores the difference between 19%–20% equity pullbacks and 40+% recessions—length matters more than depth for investor psychology.
Pimco’s table distinguishing recessionary vs. non-recessionary bear markets:
- Non-recessionary drawdowns average 17% over 5 months;
- Recessionary drawdowns average 27% over 11 months.
“If you know we’re in a stock market pullback but the economy has held up, you should not be waiting for the knockout punch…” – Brown (87:47)

Healthcare Sector Momentum

(96:14 – 103:30)

Health care sector rotation is not short-lived—Eli Lilly breaks the $1T market cap barrier on the strength of GLP-1 and diabetes/weight-loss franchises, dwarfing peers like J&J and Merck.
Instrumentation and measurement device makers (Mettler Toledo, Thermo Fisher, Agilent) have transitioned their business models for recurring revenue and become growth leaders—potential new “best stocks” for investors.

Mystery Charts & Quick Picks

(103:57 – End)

Quick “beauty contest” on breakout stocks, strategic recommendations, and debrief (e.g., Bullish on Zoom on fundamental surprise).
“The answer to FOMO is give it time… there will always be stocks that are 10x’ing that you wish you owned.” – Batnick (80:17)

Memorable Moments

Charles Lemonides narrates his Dubai Air Show adventure and goes “hands-on” in the Joby prototype (24:19).
Ed Yardeni gets his flowers as the originator of “bond vigilantes”—and transmits unshakeable optimism for U.S. equities (45:53).
Nvidia vs. Alphabet as an AI “Game of Thrones” — “The kingdom of Alphabet is currently rising...” (60:34)
Hosts use Tommy Boy references (“look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bull’s ass…”) to illustrate market agnosticism (59:10).

Final Thoughts & Recommendations

Joby Aviation: Best-in-class play on EVTOL/flying cars due to advanced tech and operating infrastructure; possible “Tesla-like” returns but with a distinct capital structure and risk profile.
Macro Outlook: Stay open to continued U.S. resilience, tech-led productivity gains, and above-average equity returns, barring major policy or macro shocks.
Tech Rotation: Alphabet and Nvidia “kingdoms” are fluid; valuation spreads can and do invert. Don’t marry to a narrative.
Healthcare: Don’t sleep on the sector—multiple drivers, durable growth, and transformation underway.
Investing Psychology: Avoid buying into FOMO—waiting for the dust to settle or for value to emerge can still provide great entry points on the right stories.

Reference Timestamps

For More

Disclosures: ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures
Ed Yardeni’s QuickTakes: yardeniquicktakes.com
Charles Lemonides: ValueWorks LLC

The Joby bull case with Charles Lemonides, Roaring 2020’s with Ed Yardeni, Alphabet vs Nvidia

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Summary

The Compound and Friends – Episode Summary

Overview

1. The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides

Key Points

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

Other Insights

2. The Roaring 2020s with Ed Yardeni

Key Points

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

Segment Highlights

3. Alphabet vs. Nvidia and AI Kingdoms

Key Points

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

4. Other Market Hot Topics & Segments

FOMO and Strategy (MicroStrategy)

Bear Markets, Sector Rotations, and Tables/Charts

Healthcare Sector Momentum

Mystery Charts & Quick Picks

Memorable Moments

Final Thoughts & Recommendations

Reference Timestamps

For More

Summary

The Compound and Friends – Episode Summary

Overview

1. The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides

Key Points

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

Other Insights

2. The Roaring 2020s with Ed Yardeni

Key Points

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

Segment Highlights

3. Alphabet vs. Nvidia and AI Kingdoms

Key Points

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

4. Other Market Hot Topics & Segments

FOMO and Strategy (MicroStrategy)

Bear Markets, Sector Rotations, and Tables/Charts

Healthcare Sector Momentum

Mystery Charts & Quick Picks

Memorable Moments

Final Thoughts & Recommendations

Reference Timestamps

For More