The Compound and Friends – Episode Summary
Episode Title: The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides, Roaring 2020’s with Ed Yardeni, Alphabet vs. Nvidia
Date: November 26, 2025
Hosts: Josh Brown (A), Michael Batnick (C)
Guests: Charles Lemonides (B, ValueWorks), Ed Yardeni (D, Yardeni QuickTakes)
Overview
This action-packed episode features:
- An insider’s look at the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (EVTOL) space with Charles Lemonides, focusing on why Joby Aviation leads the field.
- Legendary strategist Ed Yardeni outlining the ongoing "Roaring 2020s" investment thesis, drawing macro parallels and bold forecasts for the S&P 500.
- A high-voltage discussion on the evolving battle between mega-cap techs: Alphabet, Nvidia, and the spillover into the broader AI ecosystem.
- Spirited exchanges on bubbles, bear markets, sector rotations, and market structure, with numerous actionable insights for investors.
1. The Joby Bull Case with Charles Lemonides
(00:00 – 35:10)
Key Points
- Charles Lemonides, founder of ValueWorks, shares firsthand impressions from the Dubai Air Show and makes a comprehensive bull case for Joby Aviation—an EVTOL company he considers best in class.
- Joby stands out for advancing to actual test flights, notably performing a point-to-point piloted flight at the Dubai show and advancing towards real service with partnerships and infrastructure.
- The hosts and guest contrast Joby’s real-world progress with competitors, demystify EVTOL technology, and debate the path to commercial viability.
- Lemonides outlines his investment process—seeking growth companies with significant investments in place but at compelling valuations, a strategy he dubs “quality assets, compelling valuations.”
- Discussion also covers similarities and distinctions from early Tesla, the backing of major partners like Toyota, and institutional support (e.g., Baillie Gifford).
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- On Joby's leadership:
“You're right, there was only one that actually flew their flying machine and is much further along than everybody else... one of them's flying and the others are not.” – Charles Lemonides (05:52) - On the Game-Changer:
“These things make no noise. And that's gonna change people's willingness to have it showing up in their neighborhoods.” – Lemonides (07:13) - On Joby's model vs. competitors:
“Not only does it have revenue today, but has the infrastructure in place... they're going to just swap them in and the helicopters get swapped out. And I think it's gonna be a big game changer…” – Lemonides (06:47) - On Risk and Timing:
“They're going to be hiccups, and the stock, I'm sure, will correct by 30% a whole bunch of times over the next 10 years. The question is whether it corrects 30% from today’s level or from 2 or 3 higher.” – Lemonides (19:21) - On the opportunity size:
“They're gonna be doing tens of billions of dollars worth of sales seven to ten years from now. It's gonna be a big deal.” – Lemonides (32:21)
Other Insights
- EVTOL as a category is growing but poorly understood by the public; “flying machines” may be a better catchphrase than EVTOL.
- Outlook on manufacturing, constraints, and early-mover advantage—Joby aiming to build/operate, while others (e.g., Archer) are more focused on selling hardware.
- Lemonides details his nuanced value/growth strategy, citing Joby and Rivian as cases where “getting here is a good thing.”
2. The Roaring 2020s with Ed Yardeni
(35:32 – 55:47)
Key Points
- Yardeni reiterates his “Roaring 2020s” thesis, projecting sustained economic strength, robust earnings growth, and S&P 500 potentially reaching 10,000 by 2029.
- Draws parallels to the post-Spanish Flu Roaring 1920s—arguing that demographics, tech innovation (especially AI), and fiscal stimulus continue to drive a resilient “up and to the right” environment.
- Explains why cyclical shocks haven’t derailed the bull run, crediting banking reforms, financial market shock-absorbers, an aging but wealthy boomer generation, and the digital revolution.
- Expects ongoing productivity boom to support profit margins and high valuations, dismissing concerns about deficits, using the term he originated—“bond vigilantes.”
- Supports forecasts with robust historical data showing previous multi-decade 200%+ S&P 500 returns.
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- On future targets:
“I'm talking about 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2029... and it's only likely to happen if the economy remains resilient as it has, absorbs shocks, and earnings stay remarkably strong.” – Ed Yardeni (40:29) - On the deficit and rates:
“I've been telling people, I'll worry about the debt... when the bond vigilantes worry about it. Right now the bond yield is 4%. It's pretty calm.” – Yardeni (45:31) - On resilience and innovation:
“AI is just an amazing application... it lends itself to just about every business and all of our personal lives. And I think it's just kind of starting.” – Yardeni (43:38) - Historical precedent:
“There's nothing unusual about a roaring stock market. We've had it before. And just because I make the allusion to the roaring 1920s doesn't mean that it's that unique.” – Yardeni (54:00)
Segment Highlights
- Various informative charts on S&P earnings, forward P/E, and ten-year decadal returns reinforce the argument.
- Hosts push back only mildly, noting timing is the harder call than eventuality; the resilience thesis prevails.
3. Alphabet vs. Nvidia and AI Kingdoms
(57:57 – 96:14)
Key Points
- The tension between Google/Alphabet emerging as a “kingdom” in AI (with its Gemini 3 and TPU chips) vs. Nvidia’s status as the reigning AI hardware supplier is front-and-center (61:35 – 91:54).
- Discussion highlights recent outperformance by Alphabet shares, sector rotation, and the frothy narratives around AI leaders.
- Market is scrutinizing Nvidia's earnings quality and asset depreciation, spurred by prominent skeptics like Michael Burry—leading Nvidia to publicly rebuff comparisons to Enron, WorldCom, and Lucent.
- The inversion: for the first time since 2016, Alphabet sells at a higher forward P/E than Nvidia.
- Despite AI hype, multiple compression in tech is seen as a healthy sign and not bubblicious; debate ensues on whether rotations can sustain.
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- On market narratives:
“Whatever narrative you have about these individual kingdoms within the AI Game of Thrones, just understand they still rise and fall.” – Josh Brown (68:35) - On Nvidia’s memo:
“Is it weird that they felt the need to do that like literally invoke the name Enron next to the word Nvidia? I don't know if I love it.” – Brown (94:19) - On valuation dynamics:
“For the first time since 2016, Google sells at a premium on forward PE to Nvidia. That's pretty insane.” – Brown (90:01)
4. Other Market Hot Topics & Segments
FOMO and Strategy (MicroStrategy)
(69:48 – 82:00)
- Covers volatility in “digital asset treasury stocks” like MicroStrategy (now ‘Strategy’), whose value is increasingly tied to its Bitcoin holdings.
- Volatility and potential index exclusion (MSCI) are looming risks, but guests are skeptical a forced unwind is imminent.
- Key insight: “There is a cure for FOMO, and it's simpler than you think. A lot of times the cure is just time. Just letting things play out.” – Brown (79:00)
Bear Markets, Sector Rotations, and Tables/Charts
(83:08 – 87:50)
- Explores the difference between 19%–20% equity pullbacks and 40+% recessions—length matters more than depth for investor psychology.
- Pimco’s table distinguishing recessionary vs. non-recessionary bear markets:
- Non-recessionary drawdowns average 17% over 5 months;
- Recessionary drawdowns average 27% over 11 months.
- “If you know we’re in a stock market pullback but the economy has held up, you should not be waiting for the knockout punch…” – Brown (87:47)
Healthcare Sector Momentum
(96:14 – 103:30)
- Health care sector rotation is not short-lived—Eli Lilly breaks the $1T market cap barrier on the strength of GLP-1 and diabetes/weight-loss franchises, dwarfing peers like J&J and Merck.
- Instrumentation and measurement device makers (Mettler Toledo, Thermo Fisher, Agilent) have transitioned their business models for recurring revenue and become growth leaders—potential new “best stocks” for investors.
Mystery Charts & Quick Picks
(103:57 – End)
- Quick “beauty contest” on breakout stocks, strategic recommendations, and debrief (e.g., Bullish on Zoom on fundamental surprise).
- “The answer to FOMO is give it time… there will always be stocks that are 10x’ing that you wish you owned.” – Batnick (80:17)
Memorable Moments
- Charles Lemonides narrates his Dubai Air Show adventure and goes “hands-on” in the Joby prototype (24:19).
- Ed Yardeni gets his flowers as the originator of “bond vigilantes”—and transmits unshakeable optimism for U.S. equities (45:53).
- Nvidia vs. Alphabet as an AI “Game of Thrones” — “The kingdom of Alphabet is currently rising...” (60:34)
- Hosts use Tommy Boy references (“look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bull’s ass…”) to illustrate market agnosticism (59:10).
Final Thoughts & Recommendations
- Joby Aviation: Best-in-class play on EVTOL/flying cars due to advanced tech and operating infrastructure; possible “Tesla-like” returns but with a distinct capital structure and risk profile.
- Macro Outlook: Stay open to continued U.S. resilience, tech-led productivity gains, and above-average equity returns, barring major policy or macro shocks.
- Tech Rotation: Alphabet and Nvidia “kingdoms” are fluid; valuation spreads can and do invert. Don’t marry to a narrative.
- Healthcare: Don’t sleep on the sector—multiple drivers, durable growth, and transformation underway.
- Investing Psychology: Avoid buying into FOMO—waiting for the dust to settle or for value to emerge can still provide great entry points on the right stories.
Reference Timestamps
| Segment / Topic | Time | |---------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Joby Aviation & Flying Cars – Charles Lemonides | 00:00-35:10 | | Roaring 2020s Macro – Ed Yardeni | 35:32-55:47 | | Alphabet vs Nvidia, AI Tech Rotation | 57:57-96:14 | | Bear Markets/Drawdowns Tables & Sector Analysis | 83:08-87:50 | | FOMO / Strategy (MicroStrategy) Deep Dive | 69:48-82:00 | | Healthcare Boom & Best Stock Beauty Contest | 96:14-103:30| | Mystery Chart, Quick Picks, Wrap-up | 103:57-End |
For More
- Disclosures: ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures
- Ed Yardeni’s QuickTakes: yardeniquicktakes.com
- Charles Lemonides: ValueWorks LLC
