“Unrealized” Capital Gains Tax is Economic Suicide

Summary

The Compound and Friends – Ep. "Unrealized" Capital Gains Tax is Economic Suicide

Date: February 18, 2026
Hosts: Josh Brown (A), Ben Carlson (B; filling in for Michael Batnick)
Theme: In-depth discussion of the current market environment, earnings season, the realities of AI-driven disruption, sector rotations, international outperformance, and the dangers of unrealized capital gains taxes, using the recent Netherlands law as a case study.

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Episode Overview

Josh Brown and Ben Carlson take listeners through the biggest investing stories and hot topics of Q1 2026, focusing on the resilience of corporate America’s profit engine, AI’s knock-on effects for productivity and labor markets, "Halo" stocks, sector rotations, the rise of international equities, and the folly of taxing unrealized capital gains. They blend banter, data deep-dives, historical analogy, and skeptical riffs about political and economic trends.

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Key Topics and Insights

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1. A Historic Earnings Season and Profit Resilience

(03:51–17:27)

• Record-Breaking Earnings Performance:

  • 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with Q4 2025 showing 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth (fifth consecutive double-digit quarter) and 9% revenue growth (the best rate since Q3 2022).
  • The outperformance is broad: "If I blindfolded you and just read you the numbers... you'd probably guess [the market] is doing pretty well." (Josh, [03:39])
  • Beat rates in both revenue and earnings remain at or slightly above historical averages.

• Enduring Corporate Strength—Despite Macro Headwinds:

  • Companies have navigated COVID, high inflation, supply chain shocks, tariffs, remote work, and now AI disruption—yet profit margins and earnings keep hitting new highs.
  • "Corporations are the last vestige here... Think about what they've been through... and they've come out just fine on the other side." (Ben, [04:40])
  • AI is credited as a major driver, with savings and productivity gains potentially spreading beyond the initial "hyperscalers" and tech sector.

• Skepticism Over ‘Infinite’ Profits:

  • Bullish projections for AI-driven GDP growth are met with skepticism—“Get out of here with 10 or 20% [annual growth].” (Ben, [10:28])
  • Hosts question who actually benefits from this productivity—a key set-up for later inequality discussions.

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2. Sector Rotations: The "Halo" Phenomenon and Revenge of the 493

(17:27–26:38)

• Rotation Away from Tech Giants:

  • For the first time, 2026 sees the Mag 7 (tech megacaps) underperforming, while the S&P 493 (the rest of the index), small caps, value stocks, dividend aristocrats, and internationals outperform.
  • "It's just interesting... all these Mag 7 stocks have kind of rolled over... and the equal weight is doing really, really well." (Ben, [17:43])

• Halo Stocks Explained:

  • Josh introduces "Halo": Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence—firms whose physical assets and irreplicable businesses render them less disruptible by AI.
  • Tangible, industrial companies are winning back favor after a decade dominated by software and asset-light growth models.
  • "We've gone from intangible back to tangible..." (Ben, [21:32])

• Global Parallel:

  • This cycle isn’t limited to the US: heavy-asset companies dominate value indices globally, explaining outperformance abroad.

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3. Unrealized Capital Gains Tax—Case Study: Netherlands

(26:38–34:03)

• The Policy:

  • The Netherlands has introduced a 10% annual tax on unrealized investment gains over a certain threshold, to address the widening wealth gap.
  • "Not realized. Capital gains unrealized. Like the year ends and they assess the gains on your investments... You'll owe 10% of that gain, even if you didn't sell." (Josh, [28:54])

• Unintended Consequences:

  • Such policies incentivize capital flight, reduce investment, hinder job creation, and ultimately harm the broader economy.
  • “The one thing we know about the super rich is that their money is more portable than ever.” (Josh, [28:51])
  • Ben proposes a more sensible fix: tax borrowing against investment portfolios, as it’s effectively consumption.

• Philosophical Critique:

  • Reflecting on US policy, the hosts argue it’s better to broaden the investing class than to punish ownership, regretting delays in financial inclusivity (e.g., delayed tax-advantaged accounts for youth).

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4. AI, Inequality, and Historical Lessons

(34:03–37:14)

• AI Exacerbates Wealth Gaps:

  • Ben predicts AI will “make the spread between the winners and losers so much bigger,” likely creating acute pain for those in disruptable lines of work.
  • He draws analogies to the 1920s, when technological shifts boomed the economy but impoverished certain classes—referencing The Jungle, Grapes of Wrath, and Gatsby as cultural lenses.

• The Next Transition:

  • "There are going to be whole groups of people or industries... where inequality just gets worse and worse, regardless of how well the economy is doing." (Josh, [36:30])

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5. International Outperformance and Dollar Dynamics

(38:25–49:07)

• International Stocks Surge:

  • MSCI World ex-US, Europe, Japan, Asian Pacific, Emerging Markets—all sharply outperforming the S&P since early 2025.
  • Most US investors are unaware: "I’m gonna say like three out of ten, maximum, even know how the year began." (Josh, [40:10])
  • International small cap value, for example, has outperformed the S&P 500 over 5 years.

• Why Now?

  • Some attributing this shift to a weakening dollar and policy reforms abroad (esp. Japan and Europe).
  • "[International stocks] underperformed, underperformed... and then there was a turn. But there was no way to know in the moment... another lesson." (Josh, [44:53])

• EU Reforms as a Catalyst:

  • Europe’s political leaders—meeting in a Belgian castle—are moving toward reducing regulation, integrating capital markets, and possibly launching pan-European bonds/stocks.
  • “We might get a pan-European bond and stock market this year. Think about what a massive catalyst that could be.” (Josh, [51:38])

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6. AI Disruption and Market Psychology

(52:32–57:33)

• Viral AI Anxiety:

  • Massive engagement with think pieces like “Something Big is Happening” signals that “everyone’s prepared, but nobody knows what’s gonna happen.” (Josh, [53:31])
  • Josh pokes fun: “The only responsible thing to do is just resign now. Don’t make [AI] come find you.” ([53:55])

• Software Sector Correction:

  • The software sector’s P/E dropped from 51x to 27x in a year, now cheaper than many “boring” industries.
  • Speculation over which verticals are insulated from AI: “If you’re aggregating public data, nobody needs you to do that anymore. That’s not a business.” (Josh summarizing Bustamante, [56:07])

• The Rise of the 'Undisruptables':

  • Defensive stocks (Costco, Walmart) now fetch massive premiums, potentially forming their own overvalued bubble.
  • “The staples stocks are stupid... Coke and Pepsi had 85 RSIs last week.” (Josh, [57:33])

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7. The Apple Play and Consumer AI

(60:16–66:56)

• Apple as Silent AI Winner:

  • Unlike most Big Tech, Apple’s capex is down, but hosts predict Apple will lead consumer AI via a supercharged “Agentic Siri”—an assistant capable of handling complex personal tasks by integrating across all apps.
  • “Apple is going to own consumer AI… Agentic Siri is a grand slam and they’re gonna do it. And Apple is never first… They let everybody blow themselves up and then come in and say let me step aside, let me show you how it’s done.” (Josh, [62:38])
  • The "at home vs. enterprise" AI use-case split: "Microsoft at work, I’m Apple at home." (Josh, [65:07])

• Potential for Apple Stock to Shine:

  • Despite lagging hype, Apple’s "closest to the customer" position and hardware ecosystem could make it the breakout stock as the next AI phase arrives.

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8. Mystery Chart and Wrap-Up

(66:56–69:00)

• Industrious Outperformance:
  • Ben’s “mystery chart” shows US industrials (XLI) rivaling Mag 7 index returns since the market lows.
  • “These are the most screwed companies in the world. Done. They will never make money again... Blah, blah, blah. Good call.” (Josh, [67:50])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI's real impact:
  “If we went from 2% growth to 3% growth [from AI productivity], that’d be amazing, right? Get out of here with 10 or 20%.” — Ben [10:28]

• On the Netherlands tax:
  “The problem with that attitude is the knock-on effects are on a lot of unintended consequences... It kills stock markets, it kills jobs, it sort of has a perverse impact on the profit motive.” — Josh [30:24]

• On sector rotation:
  “Have the tech industry… disrupted itself and maybe their own stocks?” — Ben [23:22]

• On global investing cycles:
  “There was no advance warning… They underperformed, underperformed, underperformed, underperformed. And then there was a turn. In the moment, there was no way to know.” — Josh [44:53]

• On AI’s threat to software:
  “If you’re aggregating public data, nobody needs you to do that anymore.” — Josh (paraphrasing Bustamante) [56:07]

• On Apple’s strategy:
  “Apple is never first... but once they do it, it’s lights out. We all already have the device.” — Josh [62:38]

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Key Timestamps

• 03:51: Start discussion of earnings season and market resilience
• 11:30: Sector breakdown—tech growth is staggering but industrials and ‘halo’ stocks are the surprise
• 17:42: Rotation from Mag 7 to S&P 493 and other market segments
• 26:38: Unrealized capital gains tax in the Netherlands: mechanics and critique
• 34:03: AI’s likely exacerbation of wealth inequality and historical comparisons
• 38:25: International stocks’ resurgence; US investors’ ignorance of the trend
• 44:53: Lessons in market timing and the unpredictable “turn” point
• 49:07: Eurozone’s push for capital market unification and pro-growth reforms
• 52:32: Discussion of viral AI anxiety and how it’s transforming market narratives
• 60:16: Case for Apple as the future consumer AI leader
• 66:56: Mystery chart: industrials rival Mag 7 performance since market lows

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Tone and Style

Conversational, candid, sometimes irreverent, with frequent playful barbs between hosts. They mix hard data, client anecdotes, skepticism toward easy narratives, and a strong sense of historical perspective. The tone is both expert and accessible, rarely missing a chance for a pop-culture or generational reference.

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Final Thoughts

This episode offers a masterclass in real-world market analysis: blending sector data, structural shifts, and big-picture policy themes, always with an eye on investor behavior and psychological traps. It’s essential listening for those seeking practical, fact-based investing guidance amid AI disruption, global upheaval, and political–economic experimentation.

Transcript

[A]

Guess who's back? It's your boy downtown, Josh Brown. So excited to see everybody. Welcome to. What are your thoughts? One of, one of, I think maybe the second longest running show on the network after Animal Spirits.

[B]

Is that possible? Way back in the day, I remember you guys filming it in your offices and.

[A]

Yeah, but then Animal Spirits was a audio podcast from like 2017, which predates the YouTube channel, period.

[B]

Yeah, this was the YouTube original, right?

[A]

This was like. Yeah. So. All right. Hey, guys, great to see everyone. As you can hear for yourself, if you're out there listening on Spotify or Apple or if you're watching on YouTube, this is my, my friend, my colleague, Mr. Ben Carlson. You probably know Ben from Animal Spirits with Michael Batnik. And Ben will be playing the role of Michael Batnik tonight or. Nah, not really.

[B]

I don't do accents though. No Long island accent. Sorry.

[A]

You'll be playing yourself. Guys. Ben is. Ben is the author of A Wealth of Common Sense. In addition to Animal Spirits, he. He's also the head of institutional asset management at Woodholtz Wealth. And we are so lucky to have Ben filling in for Michael, who's on an actual vacation this week. Are you talking to him every 10 minutes now instead of every 5 minutes?

[B]

We get our phone conversation out of the way in the morning and then we leave each other alone.

[A]

All right, I'm happy for everybody involved. I want to say some shout outs to some people in the chat, people who are joining us live and then we'll get to our sponsor. I'm seeing. Where's this guy? Shazan Ali, 7195 Shout me out. Josh, longtime listener. Well, there you have it. Rachel is here. Georgie D. The Baron 97. Chris Hayes, Jackie, Jim. Hello, everyone. Hope Josh and Mike talk about corporate ties to Epstein. No, I don't think so. Mike maybe would have gone there, but Mike's not with us tonight. Let me do a couple more. Jack Rosenfield is here. Bob Rice, Dr. Horton. Who else is here? Ian, R Y T. What's up? JB and Michael. Close enough, close enough. All right. We have a sponsor tonight and it's a great sponsor, guys. Today's show is brought to you by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and. And now generated assets which allows you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. Just come up with something, put it in the prompt and let the AI go to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you back test it against the S&P 500 later in the show. I have an idea for this, but we'll get there. You can invest in a few clicks generated assets for like ETFs, but with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com w a y t earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. Paid for by Public Investing. Full disclosure in Podcast Description all right, how are you feeling tonight? Ready to do this?

[B]

I'm doing good. It's bomber jacket season. I'm ready.

[A]

Let me say. Do you have one on? Yeah. You do?

[B]

It's spring here almost.

[A]

Oh, remember the ones that had the fluorescent orange on the inside?

[B]

Oh yeah.

[A]

They were black and the inside was orange.

[B]

I don't know how to pull that off.

[A]

I used to rock that one. That was one of my favorite jackets I've ever owned. I don't know if I could pull it off anymore either. All right, earnings season. I wanted to talk about this because lost in a lot of the tumult in the market over the last couple of weeks and all the AI disruption stuff and all the AI capex concern, etc. Etc. Etc. We really are having yet again an amazing quarter of of earnings growth and earnings surprises. And it's broad and it's strong and you know, it's just like par for the course at this point and people just get used to it. But when you look at these numbers, if I blindfolded you and just read you the numbers and said, what's the stock market doing? You'd probably guess it's doing pretty well. What are your thoughts on earnings season so far? Before we get into the stats, we.

[B]

Had a conversation with a client a couple of weeks ago or a prospect and they were saying, I'm worried about geopolitics and all that. They're naming all this stuff they're worried about and they said, what does that mean for the stock market? And I said, listen, corporations are the last vestige here like that. They are the thing. They, they know how to make money. Think about what they've been through this decade and how much money that we're still making. Profit margins continue to rise. Profits continue to rise. Like they've gone through everything and they've come out just fine on the other side. Like it's like that's that was my point.

[A]

It's like a litany of things that we've just seen these companies and their leadership go through. Not in the last 20 years, like in the last five to 10 years.

[B]

Supply chains, high inflation, Covid, all this stuff. Remote work, AI now, tariffs, they've gone through everything. And profit margins just keep going up.

[A]

Inverted yield curve.

[B]

Right.

[A]

All the things that weren't supposed to survive. It's a really good point. Let me give you some data from FactSet and this is as of Friday. So I know there were some numbers today, but things have not changed that much. 74% of S&P 500 companies already have their earnings in. So we've seen like three quarters of what we're going to see. And the blended earnings per share growth for Q4 2025 is 13.2% year over year. Then that would be the fifth consecutive quarter of double digit growth. Blended revenue growth up 9% year over year, which is the highest blended. So when I say blended, that's the 74% of companies that have reported already. Plus the estimates for the last 26.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Blended revenue growth of 9% would be the best since Q3, 2022 and the 21st consecutive quarter of growth period. And it's not just good numbers in absolute terms, it's good numbers versus what the expectations were as recently as December 31st. So that earnings number I told you of 13.2% is versus the 8.3% Wall street was expecting. And on the revenue they were looking for 7.8 and we did 9. And the thing about revenue growth, it's not, you can't play games with, with stock buybacks and stock based compensation and you know, play hide the expense off balance sheet. If you're going to show revenue growth, the only way to do it is that you actually grew revenue. And I think it's underrated as a, as a metric.

[B]

Your comparison to 2022, that was almost like the only way you can game the revenue system is inflation was way higher. So of course the revenue is going to be higher because prices rose. But inflation has settled down and we're still getting revenue growth. That's a positive.

[A]

It's a good point. Like inflation shows up in top line revenue because it's literally what companies are charging.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[A]

So you don't have that benefit. You don't have that benefit right now. Forward estimates for full calendar year 2026 run through these real quick. So the quarter that we're in right now, the street is looking for 11.1% and revenue growth of 8.7. Following quarter, it's like 15% earnings growth. Unbelievable. And then another 7.9% in revenue. For Q3, the Street now expects 15.6% earnings growth and 7.3% revenue. And for the final quarter of the year, the street is at 15% earnings growth and 7.5% revenue growth. And that would give you a full on.

[B]

We got a chart for this one.

[A]

All right, let's put it up.

[B]

There it is.

[A]

All right, what's. So walk us through the chart. The, the full year number is really, I think, the, the most salient point for, for our purposes.

[B]

How are, so with this, here's my question to you. How are we still getting 15% earnings growth essentially? And they're just spending all their money on capex, like all the biggest players are, are spending so much money. How is this still happening?

[A]

Well, the companies that are using AI, presumably in their operations are saving money, maybe not hiring as many people and productivity is exploding. At least that would be the bull case. So the AI boom in 24 and 25 was accruing mostly to semiconductors and the hyperscalers. And now that's broadening out. So companies that have literally nothing to do with AI are able to report higher profits because of their use of AI. And if that's actually what ends up happening and we start hearing companies on these Q1 calls talking about cost savings or efficiencies from AI, I think we get to all live happily ever after. Like, won't that be good enough? It's like, all right, they spent a trillion dollars in capex and now here's what we have to show for it. Double digit earnings growth as far as the eye can see for The S&P493, I think most people would say that's a happy ending for everybody, right?

[B]

That's the, like what stops this train of profit margin growth or just profits being kept higher with, with this tool coming down. Like one of the greatest productivity enhancers we've seen. Like what stops the train? I don't see anything.

[A]

Dude, when you listen to the hyper bulls on AI, they're talking about like 10, 20% GDP growth because of, because of AI. Like just the biggest productivity explosion anyone else have ever seen.

[B]

I heard that. I mean that's great, but you can't have 20% GDP growth when you lay off half of white collar workers or something, right? Like the economy is still 70% consumption.

[A]

Like it's, well, we just give them.

[B]

A dividend Listen, if we went from 2% growth to 3% growth, that'd be amazing, right? Get out here with 10 or 20%.

[A]

20%. I know, 20% GDP growth. And 50% of the population gets to stay home all day.

[B]

Right? Right. Yeah. Who's spending all the money? I don't know if it's the top 5%.

[A]

The top 5% will spend 80% of the money in the economy. That's how it'll. The. Every plane will just be first class. Like the whole, the whole cabin, every hotel will be luxury suites.

[B]

The whole airport is just a Delta lounge now. Everyone's a lounge.

[A]

Yes. And like the bottom 80% of the income distribution doesn't have to. Elon Musk said they don't worry about money anymore. So they could like just, they could spend 100% of their time protesting. I feel like everyone's happy in that situation. No. Doesn't that work out all right? No. Goldilocks. Earnings growth by sector for Q4. 30. 30.7% in tech.

[B]

Geez.

[A]

So you could call, you could yell and scream, tech bubble, tech bubble. But I'm just saying, like, it's not make believe. Like the fundamentals are there. This is my favorite part though. Industrials, 26%.

[B]

Holy cow.

[A]

Holy cow.

[B]

So who are the companies driving that?

[A]

This is your earth movers. This is your metals companies. Like not, not the metals and mining.

[B]

But like literally the companies and John Deere and.

[A]

Yeah. Heavy equipment and building data centers and, you know, building more capacity at the utility scale. Energy projects that are now necessary. I think it's agriculture too. Now home builders are joining the party. I don't know if you've been watching, but it genuinely is a big movement for industrial companies. Those stocks are not just rerating higher. They all have a lot of positive stuff to say. So I think that's a big part of the story. And then look, communication services, plus 13.6%. So that's Meta Alphabet. Netflix financials, plus 9%. And they were the first to report materials, plus 7.6. We know the story. Utilities plus 4.4. We know that story too. In fact, the only group not reporting earnings growth this quarter, or I guess three of them. Healthcare, flat. Consumer discretionary, negative 1%. Energy, flat.

[B]

And ironically, energy stocks are going nuts.

[A]

Yeah, well, the market's looking forward. The market's looking forward toward either higher oil prices or increased demand for electricity or some combination of the two. And those stocks all re rated no fundamental, no fundamental benefit whatsoever. That's pure multiple. But those stocks are Ripping energy is the best performing sector in the year so far. Beat rates are average Ben 74%. Beating the five year average is 78%. The 10 year average is 76. It's always right there in the mid 70s.

[B]

It is kind of funny. They just like, they love having a good beat rate like that.

[A]

Yeah, it just, I don't know how it always turns out that way. You're never going to see that number at 85. You're never going to see it at 55. It just doesn't do that. So it's just in a normal environment. It's always right, right there. Revenue is 73% beat rate. The surprise magnitude is interesting because stocks move on surprises positive and negative. The revenue surprise magnitude is 1.6% better than the estimates. Slightly below the 5 year average of 2, just above the 10 year average of 1.4. And then the market reaction, positive earnings surprises plus 0.9% which is right about in line. So it's a very normal environment. The thing that makes it abnormal is the freak show happening with software stocks. Away from that. It's very normal in terms of how we're reacting to earnings. The beat rates, et cetera. Give me the beat. Revenue and earnings per share beat rates by sector. Real estate has the lowest earnings and revenue beat sort of makes sense to me. The highest energy 100% of energy reporters beat on revenue. Maybe that.

[B]

So how are the expectations not been taken up in tech yet? If 92% of them are beating, how are. It's crazy to me that expectations haven't been ratcheted up every single quarter for the last 10 years.

[A]

They're just, they're just so good at finding, they're just so good at finding more levers to pull and you know, the Street's been behind the whole time. Give us this source of earnings growth and profit margins. What's going on here?

[B]

Yeah, this is good. This is from JP Morgan's guide to the markets. The one on the right is what we were talking about before. It's just the margins that just keep going up and up and up no matter what. And the fact that we've been able to raise them in the 2000s with like the highest inflation in 40 years I think is the craziest thing. But yeah, they break it down by margin revenue share count. And that's the thing that's dropping off is the buybacks because so much of the money is going to Capex now that the buyback piece is falling off and stocks are still going up and they didn't need it. Right?

[A]

Yeah. That's 14% profit margins. Unbelievable.

[B]

Yeah, That's a big thing. Remember, for years it was buybacks are propping up the market. The buybacks have fallen off a cliff because they're spending so much money and the stock market is still going up and they're. So it's like productive uses of capital. We'll see how productive it is. So this is the turd in the punch. Well, so I had Matt chart. Kid Matt make this for me. John, do me a chart on. Of the revenue, the returns versus earnings growth. So. So the red dot.

[A]

What a charming phrase that is, by the way. If I could just point that out. Go ahead.

[B]

So the red dot on this chart is earnings growth per year. The blue line is the stock market return. And it's interesting is that sometimes they're in line with each other. I think it's like half of these years going back to the 1930s, stocks are up and earnings are up. But there have been the other half of the time. There's like 24 of these years where earnings are down and stocks are up and almost 20 years where earnings are up and stocks are down.

[A]

So, like, it could be anything.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So, I mean, anything can happen.

[B]

Yeah. So you can do. Chart off. We could do. We could have a year of really strong earnings growth and the stock market still finishes down because expectations were too high.

[A]

We might be headed in that direction right now.

[B]

That wouldn't be completely out of the realm of possibilities based on history.

[A]

I sort of wouldn't hate that setup for 27.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Like. Like, because you're starting at a lower starting valuation. When was the last time you've been able to say that? It's been a. It's been a minute.

[B]

Yeah. So, yeah, you're right. That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. All right, can we move on now? Topic. You're the. You're the host here. I'm just here for the ride.

[A]

Yeah, let's. Let's do the rotation. Let's show people what this looks like.

[B]

About how real the rotation is. All right, let's do a chart on here. I shared this in our Slack channel the other day. This shows the equal weight at S and P. That's RSP is up almost 6%. This was coming into the day today.

[A]

That's orange.

[B]

Yep. Coming into the day to day, every single Mag 7 stock was down. And Nvidia is down like 2%. Only a couple more down double digits. Amazon and Microsoft both Down double digits. But it's just interesting to see that all these Mag 7 stocks have kind of rolled over this year and the equal weight is doing really, really well. Do the next one. This is from Chark and Matt at exhibit A. So this shows the Mag 7 down over 6% this year. The 493 is up almost 4%. So this has gotta be the widest divergence in a long time. You can do chart off that the rest of the market. And it's not just like, you know, international stocks and small caps like within the S and P. There's starting to be a divergence between what has been working forever.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So the question is, is this actually real this time or is this just a little blip and tech stocks are going to come back. It'll be fine.

[A]

I almost don't know what's better for the investor class because I could come up with a scenario where this does not change and the Mag 7 just has a red year because people are getting used to this new business model where they're not asset light now. They're like big spenders, bigger than anyone ever imagined. And it takes a while for that ROI to pay off. And they just sit this year out. And you put the chart back on and you see this dark blue line. Be the beneficiary. Nope, the next one. And you see this dark blue line which is the S&P493. Be the beneficiary. Because investors like we know this, investors don't wait. They don't sit around in stocks that aren't working. Especially if there are hundreds of stocks that are working.

[B]

And so do the next one. Next chart. So this shows small caps doing well this year. Value stocks. This one kind of blew my mind. The dividend aristocrats that's just SDY is up 11% this year. Boring.

[A]

That's the best factor. Shareholder yield is the best factor of the year so far.

[B]

Dividends mid cap. So mid caps. You're right. So if it's just a blip, you're right. People are look easy to look, look past that. But if this spread continues, people are going to go, no, I'm not waiting around for this. It's time to me to diversify. And like then the flows start happening. Because you've seen that in international stocks and emerging markets. Tons of money is pouring in there. And if that happens with the rest of the market like this, that's the thing that takes these things to the next level.

[A]

So I want to hang on. So I, I want to share this thing from Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley. So I coined this term, not this weekend, the weekend before Halo, which I think is like sort of the best, fastest way to explain what stocks are going up this year and which ones are going down. And halo is heavy assets, low obsolescence. So like companies where like what they do can't be disrupted by a chat, a chatbot, like you can't type a prompt into a box and replicate what these companies make and sell. And that is the easiest way. Like to me, yes, value is outperforming, but not because it's value. It's outperforming because so many of these halo type companies dominate the value indices by definition. Like we've spent 15 years fetishizing software companies because they had this sort of SaaS magic, you know, 20% growth every year, 40% margins, right. Had a rule of 40 thing going on and they had no assets which meant they could return a ton of cash to shareholders and their profit margins were insane. And that was the way to outperform the market. For the last 15 years we've gone.

[B]

From intangible back to tangible, back to tangible.

[A]

And tangible is mostly indisputable, at least not until the robots come. Here's what. So here's what Mike Wilson wrote Halo more than meets the eye. Mike Wilson is the chief, one of their strategists at Morgan Stanley. There has been a lot of focus on hard heavy asset halo areas of the market recently as these stocks have been seen as relatively insulated from AI disruption. While these cohorts have indeed outperformed over the last couple of weeks, their relative strength is not new. For example, multi industry and materials metals have outperformed for months. As we have illustrated in recent notes, the high CAPEX to sales factor has outperformed across the market since the middle of last year supporting this theme. Right. So it's not just a re rate. There is something happening here with capex that's leading to higher revenue, especially for industrial companies. And almost all of those companies are halo. Like by definition. There's a lot of iron and steel involved in what they do.

[B]

And that's the same thing going on overseas too, right? Yes, you're right. It's not just value stocks. It's because those are the kind of stocks that are in Europe, in Asia, 100%.

[A]

Yes. And we're going to get to, we're going to get to the Europe stuff and we're going to get to the international versus us. In a moment we'll put a Pin in that. Would it shock you. Would it shock you if what's gone on in the first six weeks just continues throughout the. You know, with a few rotations. People get excited about Apple, et cetera. But, like, would it shock you if the year ended and we just had this revenge of the 493 and people were least excited about their Mag 7 and most excited about the most obscure things in their portfolio? I don't think it would shock me at all.

[B]

This is the first time that it's really felt real. And I don't know if it's hilarious maybe. I don't know if Alanis Morissette would include this in a song, but the fact that the tech industry has, like, disrupted itself in a lot of ways. They might disrupt their stocks, they might disrupt software, they might disrupt jobs of themselves. Right? Like everything they're doing is, like disrupting their own industry first.

[A]

Yes. Microsoft is both a hyperscaler benefiting from the AI theme and a disruptee because they are the seller of things that are being disrupted on the software side of the business. It's 100% the case.

[B]

But they all realize, like, this is a blood oath. If one of us goes into this trade, this Capex trade, we're all doing it like they had no choice.

[A]

They have no choice. And I was on TV today talking about this. I think a lot of people on CNBC and Bloomberg come at this story from a very New York centric perspective. And on Wall street, we think in terms of, like, well, what are you gonna earn this quarter? Like, are you gonna make the number this quarter? What have you done for me lately? Like, what's the earnings number? What's the revenue number? What's the profit margin? And that's fine. That's our job. We're asset management. We're buying stocks and we're trying to own stocks that are gonna beat their numbers. That's the game that we play on the other side of the country. I think these people have been steeped in this history of, like, Motorola and Nokia and Netscape and AOL and all of these, like, companies that at one point were the largest version of themselves in the whole world and, like, literally disappeared off the face of the earth.

[B]

Like, Clayton Christensen has been beaten to their skull for the last 30 years. You don't want to get disrupted, Don't. So you're right. They said, no, we're going to try to lead the charge for the next thing, even if we have to spend all of our money.

[A]

Yeah, I don't Right. I don't think the mentality on the west coast is, what are we going to beat the number this quarter? It's like, holy shit, we might end up like BlackBerry if we don't make the turn to whatever the next thing is. Like, I really think that that's like the bigger risk in their minds is like obsolescence and being irrelevant. And, and it can happen in a month, it can happen in a week if the narrative changes around your company. Like, it's crazy, but it's true. And so I think to them, risk is not spending $200 billion a year in capex, risk is not spending it.

[B]

And someone else said, I'd rather go too big than too small. They all said that.

[A]

They all said that. And I think that's. It's just like, it's a mentality that. So when you watch Bloomberg and you watch CNBC and everyone's like pulling their hair out of their head, oh my God, did you see how much they're spending? I'm not saying the spending will be right. I'm just telling you it's a different mentality. They're not thinking about making the number this year. They're thinking about surviving for three years from now and still being relevant.

[B]

And they can do that because they own all the shares or they have like the voting rights so that no one's gonna tell them no except shareholders.

[A]

That's right. Let's talk. Oh, and by the way, a lot of these companies are architected in such a way the shareholders votes don't actually matter.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. They can't tell Zuckerberg what to do.

[A]

No Alphabet meta. These companies very, very wisely, a long, long time ago, organized themselves in such a way where, sure, you can have a shareholder vote, but in the end, the founders are still in control. And I think a lot of shareholders understood that deal and they were fine with it. And they could sell anytime. They don't have to stay fine with it, but they've been fine with it so far. I want to talk about the capital gains tax in the Netherlands. So they announced this last year, and then in the last week they started to ratchet it up and some of it took effect already for this year. And then there's going to be a study period where they want to do even more of it. But the idea is that we've got this huge wealth cap. It's not a Dutch phenomenon or American phenomenon. It's all over the world. And people who own shares in businesses and own real estate are rapidly Advancing versus everyone who's not an owner of anything and is just on a regular salary paying their bills and trying to get by. And the chasm, because of the massive rally in the stock market globally has grown to the point where politicians are now winning with sort of socialist messaging and punitive tax rates and sticking it to the billionaires. That's now a very popular message. More so than it was.

[B]

AI is going to make it so much worse.

[A]

I agree.

[B]

It's going to make inequality way worse.

[A]

So I have a thought on this. I actually think this is great news because I think it's very stupid and it'll give the rest of the world a sneak preview for what happens when you try to solve a real problem with something that's only going to create a bigger problem. I think the capital flight and, and the flight of the creative class and asset movement, like the one thing we know about the super rich is that their money is more portable than ever.

[B]

And they know how to, they know how to avoid taxes too.

[A]

They're not going to, they're going to sit there and be like, oh, I owe you 36% of my asset increase this year. No problem. Like that is never going to happen. So let me explain to people how it's going to work. Capital gains on finance, again, not realized. Capital gains unrealized. Like the year ends and they assess the gains of your investments that you're holding. Financial assets will be taxed at 10%. So if for example, you have a million euro portfolio and you live in, you live in Amsterdam and you make 20% return, you're going to owe, you're going to have to either come up with cash or sell down some of those assets. In order to pay 10% of that 20% gain, which on a million euros would be €200,000, you would owe €20,000. Now to somebody who's struggling and looking around at all these glass and steel skyscrapers going up and all these luxury accoutrement of the investor class, they're probably like, yeah, pay the 20,000. Tough shit. The problem with that attitude is the knock on effects are on a lot of unintended consequences.

[B]

Small business owners, yeah, starting with investors.

[A]

Starting with the people who own these companies are now disincentivized from investing and looking to leave whatever domicile they're in to get away from that tax and go somewhere else. So it kills stock markets, it kills jobs, it sort of has a perverse impact on the profit motive and it leads to just people picking up and saying Forget it. I'm not staying here.

[B]

There's the guy who owns the Grasshopper. Is that going to leave? Remember the Grasshopper in Amsterdam? It's like, it's like senior frogs but with pot.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

I may have gone there in college. There's going to be a lot of money laundering through the red light district. Possibly. Here's. I have, I have the solution to this. How to solve the tax the billionaire tax the rich just we know in working in wealth management, I think some people don't realize is how much wealthy people utilize borrowing against their shares against their portfolio. It's a taxable event. Anytime you borrow against your portfolio or shares. I think Elon borrowed against Tesla to buy Twitter. If you want to do that, that's a taxable event. Is that not a simple way people could agree to raise revenue from the wealthy? I think that makes way more sense.

[A]

It's almost like a consumption tax on debt, which makes more sense.

[B]

Otherwise you'd have to sell your shares to do that and pay taxes.

[A]

Right. Don't we want to incentivize people to make long term investments? So this is punishing people who buy and hold. There's a $10,000 or €10,000 annual exemption per person. Those numbers are not meaningful like to what we're talking about. And then they're gonna reset the assets on December 31 for the new cost basis to the brokerage firms are the ones that are gonna do this 10% tax withholding or you'll be able to opt out and declare those gains yourself if you're doing your own filing. It just seems, it seems really strange and it seems unlikely that very wealthy people in the Netherlands are gonna stay.

[B]

You're right. This is gonna, it's gonna go anywhere.

[A]

It's gonna be an absolute mess. We're sort of trying to go the opposite way here with the Trump accounts. Not that it's going to help anybody in the next 10 years, but you got to start somewhere. Rather than penalizing people in the investing class, we're trying to create more investors.

[B]

Yeah. Keeping more people in the stock market is a great thing.

[A]

Yeah. So if only we had done that 20 years ago, I would argue like people would have people, young people who are 18, 19, 20 years old today and becoming susceptible to all this like pro socialism content on TikTok. They might not have gone that in that direction because they might think of themselves as being part of the ownership class. But we didn't do it. We waited till this year. I guess Better late than never. But it's not going to help. We have an entire generation of people who look at unaffordable homes, salaries that don't pay their bills, and you introduce this idea, hey, let's take money from that guy they love. It makes. Makes perfect sense that, yeah, take it from him. He has two Rolls Royces. Why does he need a third? So, so I get the mentality. I just think in practice there are a lot of unintended consequences and people are not going to like what they see. Why do you think AI makes all this worse?

[B]

Inequality. I just, I think it's just going to make the spread between the winners and losers so much bigger. I think it's just going to leave people behind who don't utilize it or it's not on their company. Like, you know, there's, there's plenty of people who have no idea what's going on right now with this. And if it makes, I don't know, I don't know what the number is going to be that they say of jobs that are going to be taken away and there's going to be a nasty period where certain jobs, I don't even know what those jobs are going to be, are going to be disrupted and you're going to be left behind for a few years while we try to fix that and figure out new jobs or whatever it is. And even if there's just a period where it's not like mass unemployment, but it's just, there's going to be a transition period. So this happened in the Roaring Twenties. You're a big history guy. In the Roaring Twenties, when we went from the agricultural to the assembly line, all these farmers were out of luck. It was like a depression for farmers in the 1920s as all these people turned into manufacturing employees and they, they got just like. They were selling assets and they were selling land and they were going out of business and they're going bankrupt, all while the economy was booming. That's, to me, what will probably happen. I don't know what. The industries are probably pretty easy for people to guess, but I think that's what could happen is you could have a booming economy, but a handful of groups of people are just getting decimated because their line of work.

[A]

You know what's so funny? Like your generation, like our, you and I, our generation, we read books about that period. In high school, they made us read the Jungle by Upton Sinclair. And coincidentally, you could see my handle on the screen, which was just about all these immigrants and farm community people being pulled into the City because there was work, Chicago, the meatpacking, and just the horrors of. Of that, like, new industrial lifestyle. They made us all read Grapes of Wrath, which is about that farming, depression, the Dust bowl, and Tom Joad and these families that were, like, in Oklahoma, and they're just like, there was no agricultural anything to do. And, like. And then they would. I don't think it was on purpose, but the other book from the like that took place in the 20s they made us read was. The contrast was Great Gatsby. And all of those books take place in the same era. And like, the. The. The worlds that those characters inhabit could not have been more different.

[B]

Right?

[A]

Like, you go from the Dust bowl in Oklahoma, Steinbeck, to F. Scott Fitzgerald, the Great Gatsby, which is the. The Gold coast, where I'm from, Long island. And it's, like, night and day, but that's the same period of time. So to your point, there are going to be whole groups of people or industries or whatever, where the inequality just gets worse and worse and worse, regardless of how well the economy's doing. And then there are going to be groups carrying on like they're in West Egg, like they're in the Jazz age with the Gatsbys. And I agree. I think I can't see a scenario where things get equalized by this technology. It feels like it can only get exacerbated.

[B]

I'm not gonna lie. I didn't read any of the signed books in high school. I was a bad student in terms of reading. I never read a book.

[A]

Did you have the Cliff Notes?

[B]

I scanned them. I, like, skimmed them.

[A]

You know what I did? I pretended that I was mad that we had to read all these books, and I secretly loved them.

[B]

Okay, so you were ahead of the game. I didn't start reading until after college.

[A]

I was one of those people. I'd be like, oh, man, we have to read this book. And then I'd go home and read the whole thing in one night. So. And then. But I want it to be cool. So I had to tell everyone how.

[B]

Much I pretended you didn't do it. Yeah.

[A]

Put up the chart. Growing wealth and inequality. What's going on here?

[B]

Alison Schrager did this today. Just shows that it's like the middle is being hollowed out because more people are going into the upper class and fewer people in the lower class. So it's interesting that, like, the middle is shrinking, but only because more people are getting wealthy. And I think this makes it even. This is another reason. While people Are like, I'm wealthy but there's people way wealthier than me. Let's tax them. Yeah, right. And guess what?

[A]

Oh, the gray is people making 150,000 or more and it keeps getting bigger. Right, Right. That's the thing with the stock market. It's all relative.

[B]

Yes, that's the thing.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Let's talk about the X US trade.

[A]

All right.

[B]

Okay. Chark had made this one for us based on a Goldman Sachs chart. He recreated shows.

[A]

But ours is better.

[B]

Yeah. So this shows the spread between S and P&MSCI World ex US since 1995. And the spread means that US is underperforming. International's outperforming by a huge margin to start the year. Do the next chart. This is since the beginning of 2025. So this is European stocks, Pacific stocks. That's like, that's Asia plus Australia, I think the VPL and then emerging markets and are just smoking the S and p. We're talking 30% outperformance, almost 40% outperformance for some of these. Like since this is, this is a real thing now that like this trend is taking hold and I know there's a lot of people who decided I don't want international stocks anymore. I'm done with that. It didn't work for 12 years. Fine, screw it. I'm all us. And I think those people are going to have to be pulled in kicking and screaming to this trade.

[A]

I mean they're going to buy these country stock markets after they've doubled and tripled. Like that's what they're going to do now. It's unbelievable. If you had to guess what percentage of regular investors, not professionals put the first chart back up. So this is shot. We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995. The spread is negative 8.3%. Ben, what percent of regular investors are even aware that this is how the year began? I'm going to say like, I'm going to say like three out of ten maximum.

[B]

Yeah, that's probably about right.

[A]

I don't even think they even look at. I don't even think they know. Where would a regular investor even go to look to see what the MSCI world is doing? They don't know the ETF.

[B]

Yeah, I guess the 401k investor probably looks at like three and five year charts and over that period we're still doing okay. Although do my next chart here, guys. Chart on this shows over. So a lot of people will Say, well, zoom out a little. This is the last five years. And this shows that MSCI Japan and then international small cap value of which we use for clients I own personally.

[A]

Full disclosure.

[B]

Yeah, full disclosure. Over five years. Now. This is not just like a last 12 months thing. Japanese stocks and international small cap value is beating the S and P over five years. Now.

[A]

Nobody knows. Nobody knows that.

[B]

No, they.

[A]

They think US stocks bubble mag 7ai. They have no idea that international small caps are beating the out of the S and P. It's crazy. They don't. There's no way they know. I know. They don't know. Can you name any company in the international small cap index etf? I can't.

[B]

No way. Not a chance. These things are trading for 8 times earnings too. They probably had like 4% dividend because they pay more dividends overseas. You know, I'm sure that it was. Yeah, I know. I couldn't name one of the stocks.

[A]

All right. Do you think financial advisors, by and large, do you think for the most part financial advisors have kept wealth management clients in these allocations? Maybe they've trimmed them in response to 23 or 24. But like just in general, I sort of think our industry has done a good job not giving in and forcing people to stay.

[B]

I know a handful of people who go. Who went all us and were fine with the decision. But advisors. Advisors, yeah.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Advisors I've talked to, but I'd say it's probably. Yeah, most advisors. The average would be like 80, 20 US international. I'm guessing that's like anecdotal, don't you think? Something like that.

[A]

It's not right. And by the way, that like sort of makes sense because if you're weighting it by the market cap of the world, that's how much bigger the S and P got. Since you and I got into the business, it really ballooned to be a much bigger.

[B]

I think it got to be 70, 30. Now it's like 65, 35 ish since International's outperforming. So it's still a huge amount in the U.S. but you're right. I think a lot of advisors have been just preaching to people and then this is finally this happens and they can say, see, this is why I told you this. This is why I am preaching it.

[A]

We have some comments in the chat. Ben Kush says as soon as I buy them, the international stocks will stop working. All right, I know the feeling, dude. So maybe hold off because we're enjoying this. Let me see who Else. Harold Styles says Japan has a huge demographic problem and is doomed to fail. I don't know, dude. 2005 called. They want their thesis back.

[B]

Guess what the solution to that is? Population.

[A]

Robots. Robots. Japan is the global capital of robots. Giancarlo Schiano has a guess at an international small cap. Genco Olive Oil. Do you get the reference joke or not?

[B]

No, no. What is that?

[A]

That was the. That was the Godfather's olive oil company in Godfather 2. He was. He was in the import export business or whatever. All right, all right. That's a deep.

[B]

I'm doing Rewatch.

[A]

Congrats on that. So anyway, it's been pretty. It's been pretty amazing to see this entire part of the investment opportunity spring back to life.

[B]

So how much do you attribute this to the dollar? I mean, that's obviously a big reason for it. I know we've got some charts in here about the weak dollar. I think that set it off initially, the dollar crashing. That was the thing that got it going.

[A]

Well, the thing is, what I want to say, though, before we do that is what I want to say is like, there was no. Nobody fired the starting gun for these stocks to start working. Like, there was no advance warning. They underperformed, underperformed, underperformed, underperformed. And then there was a turn. Now you and I can go back in hindsight and say, oh, look, the dollar peaked. We could say. I've talked about this a lot, where some of the countries started putting through pro capital markets reforms. Japan is a really notable example of that. I've talked about that ad nauseam on the show. So we could do that in hindsight, but, like, in the moment, there was no way to know.

[B]

No. No one rang a bell here.

[A]

No way, dude. And that's one of the hardest parts about investing. And this is, I think, one of the lessons that we hammer home. All right, let's go to. Let's go to this chart. This is performance year to date by country.

[B]

Yeah. This is the last week the Wall Street Journal did this. So this is taking away the dollar in most of these. So Korean stocks are going to bonkers this year, which is. It's a handful of stocks that make it up. Right. But then Japan. So this is a lot of them. Takes away the dollar on this. That just. All these indices, even in the home currency, are beating the S&P 500.

[A]

Now Korea is a. Now Korea's an outlier. Korea has two companies, Samsung and Hynix.

[B]

They make up like 50% of the index Right.

[A]

It's half the stock market and they are in memory memory chips. So similar to what you're seeing happen here with Micron and sandisk. Imagine a whole stock market dominated by.

[B]

Well, yeah, if you think the US is overly concentrated. All these other countries are way worse.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Way their top 10 makes up way more than ours does.

[A]

Taiwan, I think it's obvious what's going on there. The chip foundries. So you could glance at these and sort of get an idea of what's driving it, but it doesn't matter. That's another important point. In the end, there were cheaper stocks in these countries and people decided on buying them. And then other people watched that and said, I'm gonna buy them too. And it just happens. And if you're not allocated, you're gonna watch and wave and you ain't gonna be there. And that's just part of how it works. There is a weak dollar story here though. When the dollar underperforms, typically you'll see international stocks outperform. Not always, but like that's a fairly well understood phenomenon.

[B]

I'm not trying here, guys. I did this. I had Matt make this one for me too. Go to the next one. So this is like dollar up or dollar down. And foreign stocks do way better. Gold does awesome when the dollar is down. Do you get the sense that this is what Trump and War they wanted weak dollar kind of. Right? Isn't that their whole thing?

[A]

Yeah, a lot of politicians want weak dollar but can't say weak dollar.

[B]

That's at least what their hand is showing, that they're pushing for a weak dollar. And that would be the thing that could keep this going, I think.

[A]

Yes. The weak dollar enables a company like Coca Cola or Caterpillar or IBM or a multi NAT that's doing 70% of its revenue overseas to continually surprise on earnings to the upside. And another side effect of that unintentional is that international stocks do really well too. But that is an accepted phenomenon. Is a strategist at Deutsch who's saying, interestingly, AI risk in the US is a reason for why a falling dollar. It's sort of like not causing the falling dollar, but it's like why the dollar is falling kind of thing. It's like just a global reassessment of Trump and the AI thing and the dollar not acting like a safe haven anymore. So like you see, right, so you're seeing like tech stocks sell off and you would expect, okay, the dollar should be higher because people flee to the safety of the dollar in a risk off market, and they're not. And that's a really interesting phenomenon that we haven't seen in a while either. Let me just say what they got. When the source of negative equity news in the US and the rest of the world is doing better, it is entirely possible for the dollar to fall as equities are going down, just like in the 2002.com period. Saravellos explained. That's the currency strategist at Deutsche Bank. The less attractive the dollar as a portfolio hedge, the more incentive there is to reduce dollar exposure. And they call it the sell America trade. And I won't go any deeper into that, but I thought that was interesting.

[B]

Well, the dollar was strong for like 15 years straight. These things are cyclical, even if it's not like the end of the dollar is here and people are giving up on us and selling America. The dollar can be weak for cyclical reasons, and it has in the past many times this happens.

[A]

Eduardeni wrote about some of the stuff Europe is doing to get more serious. And I think that's also a big part of the story. Why people are allocating and why you have big defense stocks across northern Europe in particular doing really well in the stock market this year.

[B]

Germany finally saying, we're giving up on austerity. We're gonna actually spend money.

[A]

Yes. There was a European Union last week in a Belgian castle and they were talking about how to get that castle thing was.

[B]

I thought you were kidding, but you're. Honestly. That's true.

[A]

Yes. And they were a Belgian. They were.

[B]

Of course they were.

[A]

See, the only thing that would have been funnier is if the meeting was in a bakery like a Waffle House. All right? They were talking about bureaucracy and excessive regulation and how to get rid of it so that people. And how to integrate their own capital markets. Because every country in Europe has its own adorable little stock market. And maybe that's not helping. And Mario Draghi spoke and he is the guy telling everyone, quote, move faster. Emmanuel Macron from France stood up and said, there are no taboos. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen said, you have until June to agree on a union of financial markets. We might get a pan European bond and stock market this year. Think about what a massive catalyst that could be. So this is your Denny from all the lofty talk. Something remarkable emerged. EU officials finally admitted that it's taken too long to get all 27 member countries to agree on a plan for greater economic efficiency. If the EU makes insufficient progress by June, smaller groups as small as nine members could move ahead on enhanced cooperation to accelerate these reforms. And so he just kind of like walks through. What do they need to do? One, lower administrative hurdles. It's too annoying to do anything. They have this thing called the sunset clause that automatically expires all regulations and agreements and forces them to renew them over and over and over again. Enough of that to integrating markets. Create a single integrated market for capital across EU member states. 3. Create a single energy market. One EU energy market with cross border grids is vital at a time of Russian aggression. And then all the things they have to get rid of. The Germany, France rift is a big one. Disagreements on tariffs and doing business with China, etc. Lack of investment incentive. Okay, well, maybe unrealized capital gains tax is not the right.

[B]

Right, yeah.

[A]

Anyway, it's interesting and I think we're going to see something happen and that could be a catalyst for further gains in Europe and 100% an investment story, not a political story. It's an investment story. People should watch. All right, did you notice that it feels like everybody on the Internet is now an expert on disruption?

[B]

Now is the time to shoot your shot. If you work for a startup or an AI company and you publish like a 5,000 word scribe on Twitter about SaaS or AI and it's like, it's very scary, like it's going to get some traction.

[A]

This kid that wrote Something Big is happening. Great headline. He like went, he like went like nuclear viral. I think like 30 million people read this shit and it was like the only thing people were talking about for a week. I haven't seen a blog post do that in a really. Can you even think of the last time like a market or financial or technology related post from our world did anything like that?

[B]

It is funny because the AI people are saying like, no one's talking enough about what's coming. Like this stuff is coming and people aren't like, aren't prepared enough. But it seems like people are waking up to this by reading.

[A]

You know, man, everyone's. Everyone's prepared, but nobody knows what's gonna happen.

[B]

Well, no. What are we preparing for?

[A]

What do you do about it?

[B]

That's a good question. But yes, you're right that these things are going mega viral because it's like, listen, I'm working on this stuff on a daily basis and it's changing my life and it's like I'm, I'm disrupting myself out of a job. What is it? That's what's that's what's gonna happen to you too. Just wait. That's what everyone's saying I said on.

[A]

One of my smartass social media accounts. The only responsible thing to do is just resign now. Like, be respectful of the AI. Don't make it come find you.

[B]

Just you bow down to it like you're a Game of Thrones knight. And you just bow and yeah, just.

[A]

Just fall on your sword.

[B]

Take my sword.

[A]

Yeah, bend the knee today. It's like, you can't disrupt me because I quit. Like, it's the only responsible way to go. About the software stocks are ground zero for this. And Goldman Sachs created a software basket of. It's like a long, short basket of disrupted software names versus non. And I didn't bother pulling the chart up, but I just thought this bit was interesting. Goldman Sachs shows the valuation of the software industry has undergone a sharp correction. PE top out a year ago at 51 times earnings and now it's 27. It was the most expensive sector going into this. Shows what investors know. And now it's cheaper than media, automotive, semiconductors and capital goods. Not the cheapest sector, but way cheaper than it's ever been before in our lifetimes. And I don't know, it feels like it's really easy to write some sort of disruption piece just taking that as a premise. And you could either say the worst is yet to come, or there's a guy, Nicholas Bustamante, who wrote something that went viral this week. This is a guy worked with a startup called Fintool and he basically took like every type of. Every type of SaaS company or vertical market software company and explain which ones will live, which ones will die. Did you eat this thing?

[B]

Yes, it was. The way that he laid it out was good. And he talked all about the financial data stuff in here, which is, you know, that's important.

[A]

You endure to our hearts. Right.

[B]

So that, that's the stuff that made the most sense to me. Like, basically, do you have something proprietary? Is it just a tool? Because I've been doing more and more financial analysis on AI. Obviously it's so much easier. It's so easy.

[A]

Yeah. His point was like, if you're aggregating public data, nobody needs you to do that anymore. That's not a business. You can't sell that really in real life. So you either need like proprietary data which will still have value because by definition it doesn't exist for the LLMs or something where you are the system of record for corporations and you're not Easily ripped out, regardless of how much it costs. Like there's a lot, there's a lot going on there. Rachel Fintwood says guy stuff. Totally. This is like, this is like the, the, the millennials equivalent of guys in their 50s talking about World War II, like 100% or guys in their 40s talking about the Roman Empire.

[B]

We're gonna be over and under reacting to this stuff for the next ten years at least. So Bill Gurley had something. He talked about how he said some people are shocked that Walmart and Costco have higher multiples in software companies when so much value is in terminal value. The haunting question is, will this company be around in 30 years? He says that's an easy answer for Walmart and Costco, which by the way, I got his new book. It's pretty good new career book. But the thing is the undisruptible companies are going to get taken too far too. There's going to be an overreaction there as well. Like there already is. Costco is trading for 54 times earnings. Walmart's trading for 45 times earnings. Yeah, we get those companies to be around but, but they can still be too expensive too.

[A]

The staples stocks are stupid like Coke and Pepsi. Coke And Pepsi had 85 RSIs last last week. Like momentum, that's off the charts and nothing fundamental has changed. And I could show you 50 of those. Put this chart up. This pincer move is the risk. So the vertical software companies, these are companies that built something special for one industry and they like something for law firms or for dentists or for mechanics or for construction companies. Like they own this vertical. And this is the pincer move from above you have anthropic dropping these plugins that literally they know an industry called. And you get everything for free that you used to pay somebody specialized for and. And then from below you have all these AI native startups for every vertical. People like the cost of inventing something is so much cheaper. So they're saying like small teams, Frontier models, 80% capability at 20% of the price. So if you're stuck in that middle box. And he has Bloomberg FactSet, LexisNexis S&P Global, that's not a good place to be. Cause now you're fighting with a million startups and anthropic.

[B]

I've heard that Bloomberg is going to be disrupted for 20 years though that to me is the one that for whatever reason, it's like the real estate market. Like Realtors, like you can't disrupt Realtors they're in their 6% commission. I feel like Bloomberg is indisruptable. So if it doesn't happen now, it's never going to happen.

[A]

So Bustamante addresses that. And there's a couple of things with like hospital software companies, pharmaceuticals, Wall Street. There's a regulatory component to this where like there's like, you need software where there's like HIPAA compliant, FDA compliant stuff built in on Wall street it would be SEC regulatory. Like there is a higher responsibility in certain verticals where you can't just be like, oh that's cheaper, let's use that. Like there's audit trail, there's things that are built in that, where they're less disruptible. I think I would put Bloomberg in that category. The other thing is Bloomberg has network effects.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

The people love message each other.

[B]

Yeah, that's the thing.

[A]

So I mean that's, that's harder, not impossible, way harder to replicate with LLMs to create like a million people around the world who are able to chat and trade with each other. I don't know that you can really do it. Do that. Wanted to. We could finish with this. I wanted to show you Apple as an example of a company that did not go all in on AI CapEx. Their CapEx actually this year is going down.

[B]

This is the best chart of the year so far. This chart is nuts. Right?

[A]

Nuts. So they didn't play the game.

[B]

So do you think that the. That Apple said, you know what? People aren't going to have two pieces of hardware on them. They're not going to have a phone and a little AI device. They're going to. It's all going to go through the phone. So what do we care about. It's going to come through us anyway. We'll just partner with someone and we don't have to spend the money.

[A]

OpenAI is working furiously on a device. Supposedly two. One of them is a desktop and one of them is an amulet you wear around your neck. I could look like an asshole in a year. I don't see it.

[B]

People are going to want to have multiple. I mean I get that people have an Apple watch and airpods and stuff, but that's the thing. Apple is already ingrained in us. You're going to add a new thing. I don't, I don't know about that.

[A]

Meta would tell you. Meta would tell you the goggles were wrong. It's about the glasses and that's. They think the form factor for AI and augmented reality, etc. Is going to be Worn on your face, not carried in your pocket because you'll be AI all the time.

[B]

Those glasses creep me out. I think they're creepy.

[A]

It's. Yeah, maybe it's. Maybe it's for a different generation. I don't love the idea of having somebody walk up to me with, with a camera in my face. It's not appealing to me and I don't want to do it to anyone else. Anyway, I did want to share with the audience. I think Apple could be the stock of the year. It's not cheap, it's 30 times earnings. But if we're going to pay 53 for Costco, then pay attention to what I'm about to tell you. Apple is going to own consumer AI. They are going to launch a Gentic Siri this year. They're two years late. Everybody gets it. And the stock is only in a 10% drawdown from its high. It actually looks better than the other six MAG7 names on that metric. They have a March event, a May event and a September event on the calendar. The March event is not a live stream, so they're probably not launching something big. The May event absolutely could be a Gentixiri and if it's not, the September event will be and they're partnered with Google and they were on search and I think Gemini is going to power Agentix Siri and what Agentix Siri means. Guys, it's not another chatbot, although there will be chatbot like features built in. Agentix Siri is telling Siri to go into the hundreds of apps on your phone and do things across those apps. We cannot currently do that with ChatGPT or Claude telling Siri move $100,000 from my fidelity account into my bank account because I'm about to buy a house. And by the way, I need two tickets on Delta for our vacation and also make me a reservation and then Siri because this is all happening in their iOS environment. So all of these apps have to play nice with Apple and they have to be interoperable. Siri all of a sudden is on your OpenTable app. It's on the Delta app, it's in your Fidelity app, it's talking to your bank, it's moving money, it's making reservations, it's booking travel, it's alerting you as these things get booked, you're having a two way conversation with it all day. The seats that you normally like to book are not available. Here are three other options. Agentix Siri is a grand slam and they're gonna do it. And Apple is never first. And they're very rarely the inventor of a category. What actually happens is they let everybody blow themselves up and then they come in and they say let me step aside, let me show you how it's done. And once they do that, it's lights out and we all already have the device. There are 2 billion Apple devices on planet Earth. It's a user base that spends money, continues to stay in the ecosystem. All they have to do is drop an agentix Siri into this AI trade and all of a sudden people are going to throw themselves out of Windows.

[B]

I hope it works because Siri sucks.

[A]

Sucks. And they know it. It's so bad they know it. It's because it doesn't do any. It's useless. You can't ask a follow up question like, like it's. It's completely useless. They get it. A gentic Siri is not going to suck.

[B]

They've had, they're not going to release work on this. Yeah.

[A]

We are not in a world yet where people. We are not yet in a world where people can imagine Apple's AI being the Jesus AI. They just can't picture it because Apple has not been in this LLM race and they're not in the Capex hyperscaler race. But in the end they are the closest to the customer.

[B]

So that's how Gemini wins too then.

[A]

Yeah. Now people say, well what, what happens to Claude? What happens to Chat GPT? What happens to Perplexity? Unfortunately if, if the scenario that I'm envisioning plays out like every other iteration of technology. They become plugins, they become features. It's Apple's world and Apple has the pricing power and they have to pay Apple to be in the App Store and they just become like Apple will tell them what they're worth to be included in that ecosystem.

[B]

You think Claude could still just be the one at the office? Claude's at the office. Siri is for personal use.

[A]

Sure, sure. Anthropic has made more inroads into the enterprise than anyone else besides Microsoft and absolutely we have that now. Microsoft Teams is still the most widely used platform for communications amongst people working at corporations. I had a call with a Fortune 500 company today. I didn't have to guess what the call was going to be. I knew it would be teams. So that Microsoft Apple dichotomy currently exists. A Microsoft at work, I'm Apple at home. That 100% could be the case if you're the guy coming along with the 8th LLM. Good luck. You know what I mean?

[B]

Claude in the streets, Siri in the sheets. I don't know.

[A]

Apple in the Siri. Siri on the phone and still Spitball on that one. All right, we'll figure that one out. Anyway, we're going to use Apple as our make the case because we're already out of time. And I had this whole other thing that I wanted to do, but we're. We're going to. We're going to hold off on that. Ben, you. I understand you have a mystery chart for us.

[B]

I do.

[A]

Bless us with. Bless us with that mystery chart.

[B]

All right, so this is from the bottom of the Liberation Day lows. Okay. How many. How many hints do you need here?

[A]

This is in percentage terms.

[B]

Yeah. So this is off the lows. I'll give you a hint. One of them is a sector. One of them we've been talking about the whole show.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Both US based.

[A]

US based two stocks.

[B]

These are sectors. These are ETFs.

[A]

Oh, these are ETFs.

[B]

All right.

[A]

Okay. I think I know it. I'm going to say purple is Spy and orange is Vanguard Europe.

[B]

Close enough. So purple is Mag 7.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

All right. Orange is actually XLI. It's the industrials. The industrials.

[A]

Look at this.

[B]

Are right alongside the S and P since the Low on Liberation Day. That's crazy, right?

[A]

What was the narrative around Liberation Day for the Industrials? These are the most screwed companies in the world. Done. They will never make money again overseas. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Good call.

[B]

All credit to research guy Sean on that one. He. He came up with that one for me.

[A]

All right, Ben, did you have fun on the show tonight?

[B]

That was awesome. Good stuff, dude. We loved having you blowing up there.

[A]

Chad is blowing up. Thank you guys so much for coming for the live. I want to let you know. Do you guys have Animal Spirits tomorrow?

[B]

We do. Michael called in from the Bahamas. It's a good thing he wasn't on here today because his Internet was terrible.

[A]

Okay. All right, so we will have Animal Spirits tomorrow with Michael and Ben. You guys haven't asked the compound this week too?

[B]

We do. Yes. Duncan's taking off to Japan, so he's got to tell us what's going on in the Japanese stock market.

[A]

All right. All right. And then we'll do an all new Compounded Friends at the end of the week. Thank you guys so much for watching. Keep it locked. We'll see you soon.

[C]

Ritholtz Wealth Management is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Ritholtz Wealth Management and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Nothing on this podcast should be construed as and may not be used in connection with an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or hold an interest in any security or investment product. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Ritholtz Wealth Management unless a client service agreement is in place.