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- [00:00]
Michael Batnick
Foreign. It is 5 o' clock on the east Coast. That means it is time for what are your thoughts? Josh is away, so let me turn myself up so I can hear this. So we brought us some young blood for the show tonight. We are going to talk all about the bull market, what inning we're in, what's going on with the software bounce, and of course we are going to cover the IPO bonanza that is coming. We're excited, but first a word from our sponsor. This podcast is sponsored by Neuberger. Wondering how you might adjust your fixed income allocations in today's environment?
- [00:51]
Sean
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- [01:01]
Michael Batnick
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- [01:12]
Sean
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- [01:24]
Michael Batnick
Explore NBSD including risks and important information@neuberger.com MBSD investors should consider the fund's investment objectives, risk fees and expenses carefully before investing. This and other important information can be found on the fund's prospectus and if available, summary prospectus, which you can obtain by calling 877-628-2583. Please read the prospectus and if available, the summary prospectus carefully before making an investment. Neuberger Berman BD LLC is the distributor of the fund and the FINRA member. Okay, boys, welcome. Welcome.
- [01:56]
Matt
Thank you. Let's do it.
- [01:58]
Michael Batnick
Let's pod. All right. Shark Kid Matt does need an introduction. I was about to say he needs none because he is quoted relentlessly early and often on every show that we do. But you know what? He deserves an introduction. He deserves to have his origin story heard. As do. As do you, Sean. So, Shard, Kim, Matt, let's start with you. What is your origin story? And let's keep this tight, okay? Don't ramble. You got. You got 60 seconds tops. How did you find us and what do you do here?
- [02:25]
Matt
Okay, absolutely. Yeah. So my origin story. I was a super fan of the Compound. In college, between football practice, I would listen to the Compound and Friends and one episode you guys had Tom Leon and he showed some charts and I was like, man, this guy is so smart, I want to work for him. I sent Funstone an email. They got Back to me. I worked with Tom for two years. He taught me the ways. He taught me how to chart. That's like my master Yoda. I was like this guy. He taught me the ways. And those same charts that I saw him present in the show I was updating for him a few years later. So it felt amazing. Left Funstra in February 2024. A few months later, I reached out to you, Michael. I wanted to be the outsourced chart guy. You welcomed me in graciously. I essentially became a research associate at Ritholtz. Make all the charts for the podcast now with Sean, started exhibit A. And now we're here. So it's really cool being on the other side of this as a. As a fan in college especially. Yeah, Very grateful.
- [03:27]
Michael Batnick
I'm beaming with pride. Unbelievable.
- [03:29]
Sean
You're the best.
- [03:30]
Michael Batnick
You are. You really are a special person, Matt. All right, Sean, go ahead, introduce.
- [03:35]
Sean
I was also a fan, very similar to Matt, working in banking. And Josh literally posted a research role on Instagram, of all places. And I was like, all right, I'll just swipe up on that. Because I followed the podcast, I followed the blogs and Twitter and all that other stuff, and I just. I love this stuff. I love stocks, and I vibed with these guys, and I was. I don't know, four years ago. So I was in Denver, and I was like, all right, I'm gonna apply, and I happen to get the role, thank God. And I'm now an investment analyst at Ritholtz. And like Matt said, I help with the content, I help with our investment committee, our team of advisors, all that good stuff. I make charts, but not as pretty as Matt's. And here we are.
- [04:15]
Michael Batnick
You're getting there. How was. How was our interview? How did I do with you?
- [04:20]
Sean
You were actually really short. Like, you're. You're probably much more thorough these days.
- [04:24]
Michael Batnick
Oh, yeah, you.
- [04:25]
Sean
Yeah.
- [04:26]
Matt
You did not look happy with me. When I'm in our call the first time, you were kind of confused. Exactly who I was. And within a few minutes, the entire thing changed. But I was buttoned up, suit and tie. And anyways, it was. It was. It ended up being amazing. But for a split second, I thought I messed up. What am I doing?
- [04:47]
Michael Batnick
All right, well, boys, I am super duper, duper psyched to. To have you with us, because we're talking about the bull market. And before we get into the regular program and we're going to discuss. We have. We have tons of charts. We're going to start off with something a Little bit different. And yes, I am going to be reading this because I wrote some notes, I thought, can I go off the cuff? And you know what? I'm just not that good. Okay. So forgive me. I want to read some thoughts that I think are important. One of the most important qualities that investors need to make money in a bull market. They need to be young. And I'm only half kidding. I'm not really actually kidding. So if you indulge me, just, I'm going to get on my soapbox for like, I don't know, three to four minutes.
- [05:33]
Sean
Okay?
- [05:35]
Matt
Please.
- [05:35]
Michael Batnick
All right. So people think that experience is an advantage when it comes to investing and credit. To me, I have always been dubious of this, even in my early days. And I think the. I think it really depends what kind of market environment you're in. If you are in a market that looks like the recent past. Yeah, okay, probably then experiences is going to help you. But guess what? Most of the time, the markets are changing. And just when you think you found the keys, they changed the locks. I don't know who said that. Somebody said, I didn't make that up. Somebody said that. But if you are in a time of massive change and massive disruption like we are today, then experience can be an enormous disadvantage. Not for everyone and not always, but for the most vocal market pundits, the ones that we've been seeing on the screen for the last 15 years, the I've seen this movie before type of investors, I found that to be pretty close to 100% true that experience has. Has hurt them. Ben Carlson often cites this awesome quote from tech investor Paul Graham. He said, when experts are wrong, it's often because they are experts on an earlier version of the world. And I think there is so much truth to this when it comes to investing. And no disrespect to the elders. I'm not exactly like a spring chicken. I'm much older than you guys. But I think that most people with experience are using a dated playbook. So even in this last, let's start the bull market in 2013, or even if you want to go back to 2009, whatever, how many stock pickers or macro guys are the face of this secular bull run you meet? You might say Tom Lee, you might say Dan Ives, but Dan Ives came on the scene sort of recently. And they're not traditional Warren Buffett, Stan Druckenmiller type of investors. Like, how many investors will history remember? And I know there's a lot of people that have done spectacularly well, but probably zero. So I know that there's, there's people that are listening to this and they're like rolling theirs like, Michael, come on, schmuck. Come back to me when the market gets cut in half. No, I get it, I get it, okay? I'm talking about making money in a bull market, not talking about what happens on the other side because that's, that's definitely a different story. I want to share something with, with you guys that when I first came across this, probably like, I don't know, 2013, maybe 2015, something like that, it was super impactful to me. I think that too many people think that learning from the past and I was guilty of this when I was your guy stage, all I did was read books. Like that's all that I did. Because I thought, I think a lot of people think that the best way to see into the future is by looking into the past, right? If I learn about different market environments and I study history's best investors and things that change, then I will be able to do better. And I think for me personally, the opposite was true. Like, I think I knew too much and I think it really hurt my long term returns, which is fine, you know, index funds worked, but, but like I didn't buy Nvidia even like in 2022 or whenever November, like when, like that, that was the most obvious trade of all time in hindsight, right? Like when Chat GPT launched. How did I not buy the infrastructure build out? Whatever. I didn't.
- [09:00]
Matt
Okay?
- [09:01]
Michael Batnick
So here, here's what I want to share with you guys. Peter Bernstein, one of the absolute greatest investment writers of all time. Against the Gods is one of the best books. I cannot recommend it highly enough. He did a, an interview with PBS Frontline. It was a documentary in 1997. And this hit me so hard, like so, so hard when I, when I first listened to him say this. So he was talking about the difference in yields between stocks and bonds and the historical relationship. And I'm, I'm, I think you guys have probably heard me say this, like you two. And maybe the audience has heard me reference this. So here's, here's, here's me quoting Peter Bernstein. He said, you got twice as much income owning stocks as bonds. And even though people felt it was very risky, he's talking about stocks, they felt, well, the difference in income made it worthwhile. And so then something absolutely amazing began to happen. As the decade wore on, the stock market began to go up and dividends didn't go up that fast. So yields fell to around 4%. And in the meantime, the bond market, bond prices began to go down. Business was very good. People began to worry about inflation for the first time. And so around 1958, if you bought a bond, the income on it was more than if you bought a stock. Dividend yields went below bond yields. This had never happened in history. This is me, not Peter. This is like an ironclad rule. Anytime they diverged or. Or, I'm sorry, anytime they converged, stocks were overpriced and stocks crashed. That was like an ironclad rule, like you knew what to do. Okay, so then Peter says, it was a really unique experience. It wasn't supposed to happen because stocks are supposed to be riskier than bonds. I had two older partners. They were 15 years and more older, and they were veterans of the Depression. And my closest friend in the firm, he always calls me kid. He said, don't worry, kid. This will reverse itself. This is unreal and not to be sustained. This will reverse itself. Well, I'm still waiting. Stocks have yielded less than bonds ever since then. So in my experience, this was the single biggest event. And I never forget it, because it proved to me that when people say something can never happen, and for 200 years, it couldn't, hadn't then, anything can happen. So then the interviewer was asking him about. He's like, wait, you're telling me that in the 1950s, like, which was a fantastic bull market. If you look at a chart of stocks by decade, 1950 is the only decade that literally went from the lower left to the upper right, almost uninterrupted. Like, it started at the low and ended at the high. It was a fantastic decade for the stock market. So Peter said the reason that the 50s were the decade of disbelief was that most of the people. I really could say almost all the people who were still in the stock market were veterans of the Depression. No new. No new people had come in. So the memory of this event was very strong, and you really had to go through about 10 years more. So that the event was by 1959, it was 30 years since the crash. Those people were beginning to die off, and a few younger people were beginning to come in because it began to look like a place where you could make some money. So, gentlemen, what are your thoughts? Sean, let's start with you.
- [12:19]
Sean
It's weird that you're bringing this up because, like, Matt and I were just talking earlier today, our desks right next to each other, and we were talking about how many crazy things have gone on and they are crazy and change is constant. But one thing that I was thinking about was like, has there ever been a decade where it just followed the playbook, like things aren't normal and it kind of feels like it's been not normal for so long that that is the playbook? And I don't, I don't know if that's like the normal thing to think, but that's like definitely how it feels.
- [12:49]
Michael Batnick
Well said.
- [12:51]
Matt
In the same way that people in the 50s were an expert on the Great Depression, is it fair to say that people in the 2020s could be an expert on the 2008 financial crisis and that has contributed to their lack of participation in the bull market? I mean, I think there's a, there's a concept that Tom taught me at Funstrat and it's called Maslow's Hammer. And it's that people hold hammers and they look for nails. And in other words, if you're equipped with like a 2008 hammer and you know exactly what went wrong in that time period, you start to see everything through that lens in the same way that people might be seeing the rippin semis as this is Tech Bubble 2.0. And so sometimes I think actually a lack of experience in certain moments of time that are extremes can actually contribute to your ability to adapt to new environments.
- [13:46]
Michael Batnick
Absolutely. Very well said. I'm not trying to minimize what a bear market does in particularly like a crash, like what depression did to a generation. Think about investors of like people living who gave a shit about the stock market in 1950. 38 people are so over it. And, and what 2008 did to the psyche. I think at the low in 2008, stocks were back to where they were. I, I might be wrong here, but I think in 2008 at the low, or 2009 at the low, stocks were back to where they were in like 1996. Somebody fact checked me on that. But, but even if, even if that's being hyperbolic, they are absolutely devastating. So I get the psychological trauma. You can't shake that off. So I'm not like trying to minimize it. But it's funny because this morning as we're getting ready for the show, I missed this last night because I was out, But Berkshire bought $10 billion worth of Google in a private placement and Google hasn't issued common stock since 2005. And Berkshire obviously historically not really a tech investor. Not really. Not Warren Buffett's not a tech investor. I understand he's retired. It was just a, like a holy shit type of a moment. There's so much going on in the market, it's like overwhelming. So Ben Thompson at Stratacheri wrote, wrote about it this morning. And in 2017. All right, in 2017, here's what Warren Buffett, obviously one of the greatest investors of all time, said about Google. And this is a thousand points ago, percentage points ago, maybe more. He said we were their customer very early on with Geico and we saw these figures. These figures are way out of date. But as I remember, we were paying them 10 or $11 a click or something like that. And anytime you're paying somebody 10 or 11 bucks, every time somebody just punches a little thing where you got no cost at all, you know, that's a good business unless somebody's going to take it away from you. And so we were close up seeing the impact of that. But, you know, you've almost never seen a business like it. So Warren Buffett in 2017, he had no pattern matching ability to identify that this was not going to be disrupted, that this was a sustainable business. Obviously he understood the economics and the margins, but they made no sense to him because he had never seen anything like that.
- [16:07]
Sean
It's Greg's time now.
- [16:09]
Michael Batnick
What's that?
- [16:10]
Sean
I said it's Greg's time now. I mean, I think obviously it's a bit different of a business than a railroad or a Geico, but I think you could understand the margins and the revenue growth and their own digital moat that they've created between search and cloud and YouTube and all of the tens of businesses that you guys talk about that are underneath the Alphabet umbrella. I think you kind of understand it's kind of the same process, just in a more, you know, 20, 26 way.
- [16:39]
Matt
What I appreciate about this too is Google's up 188% over the past year.
- [16:45]
Michael Batnick
Wow.
- [16:45]
Matt
And Berkshire has a private placement in this equity offering and they're doing it not down 40%, but up almost triple over the past year. And that's, we, we talk about it, but it's like the hardest thing to do is, is buy something that doubled over the, or tripled over the past year when it should have 5x or 6x maybe, and there's still value even if the stock has gone up so much. So that's, that's what I'm taking away from this.
- [17:19]
Michael Batnick
I love that. Yeah, this is, we'll get to the purchase and what's going on in the market in a Second, I just want to end this particular topic with one thing, boys. This is something. I wrote this book in 20. I wrote this in like 2016, 2017, I think it was published in 2018. And I haven't cracked this book open in a long, long time. Probably since I published it, actually. But I was looking for a. This is my book, Big Mistakes. I was looking for a thing that I wrote about Stan Druckenmiller, probably the greatest investor of all time, just as far as track record and where people hold him in such high esteem. And Stan Druckenmiller got promoted in 1982, well before he was ready or deserving. So what you guys have is the privilege of being unencumbered by past experiences in the market. So here's myself quoting myself. All right? Druckenmiller dropped out of business school after just one semester and began his career at Pittsburgh National Bank. At 23 years old, he was by far the youngest in a group of eight other people. And then in 1978. Did I say 1982? Whatever. And then in 1978, not even two years after being hired, he was promoted to director of equity research. How about that? That's 23 years old. It wasn't apparent at the time that he would go on to become one of the best money managers ever. Instead, it was his youth, his clean slate that his boss found so appealing. He asked why he leave practice peers who had much more experience than he did. And here's the quote. For the same reason they send 18 year olds to war. You're too dumb, too young, and too inexperienced not to know to charge. We around here have been in a bear market since 1968. I think a big secular bull market's coming. We've all got scars. We're not going to be able to pull the trigger. So I need a young, inexperienced guy to go in there and lead the charge. Unreal, right?
- [19:25]
Sean
So good.
- [19:27]
Matt
It's like, Michael, that blog post you wrote about how to find good people. And you should give people more. You give people more responsibility than they might even need or know or can handle and see what happens. It's like sometimes ignorance is bliss.
- [19:45]
Michael Batnick
All right, so let's get back. Let's get. Let's. Let's talk about the market, where we are today. Bill Cohen wrote a post for Puck. Love reading that guy's stuff. The AI Bubble truth is cry wolf. And Howard Marks is on here. I don't know that. Like, I'm not trying to dunk on Howard Marks. I don't think that he was even maybe quoting this article. But just as a, as you know, one of the old guards. And Howard is a legend, so definitely, you know, I'm not trying to dunk nothing but respect for him. But Bill wrote, amid all the hyperventilating about eye popping AI company valuations and the seemingly insanity of the current investment cycle, old Wall street hands might feel something tickling in the back of their brain. So boys, I want to ask you an impossible question, but chart. What inning are we in?
- [20:30]
Matt
Just drop the kid there. Chart. People are calling me chart around the office now. I'm not, I'm not upset about it. I guess I'm moving up in the world. All right, all right. I pulled this stat right before because I saw you had this in here. So analysts expect $427 of earnings in 2028. So let's just put 20 multiple. I know it's not that easy, but that's like 85, 8 $600 s P500. But just purely from earnings, that's like 40% growth from where we are right now through the end of 2028. And so I do believe that there are and I'll answer the question, but I do believe that there are symmetries in markets where if we move up really fast, we move down really fast. And we move down really fast, we move up really fast. That's just what happens. But if you have 40% earnings growth over the next two years, how are you going to. You can't be an inning 8. It's not inning 9. Maybe we're in inning 5, 6. Do I think that we could have a 25% bear market from through the end of the year? Absolutely. It's a midterm election year volatility could be, but that's different than a sustained three year bare market. So I guess inning four or five, but we're not at the end of the, of the game.
- [21:44]
Sean
Sean, John, will you chart on the anthropic revenue chart. This is from the information. So this is annualized revenue for both anthropic and open AI, which I would argue are the figureheads of, of the AI trade thus far. Anthropic literally started like a few years ago to throw out some stats. Their revenue trajectory went from $87 million in January of 2024, which was like not that long ago, to a billion by the end of 2024. So that was a 10x to 9 billion by the end of 2025, which was another 9x which by the way was six months ago and now this was just reported a week or so ago. Their run rate, the annualized revenue run rate is now 45 billion, which was a 5x from the already 9 billion that we had six months ago. So I don't know. I mean, I, I wouldn't say. If we were putting it in innings terms, we're not in the first inning, but we're certainly not in the sixth or seventh.
- [22:45]
Michael Batnick
I would agree with you guys. Gavin Baker was talking with Patrick and he said something like less than. I forget the numbers he used. Let's just say that less than 1% of people that are going to eventually use this are currently using it. And there's already a massive shortage of compute now where the hyperscalers overdoing it like Google is using all their cash flow and then some $170 billion in run rate, annual operating cash flow. They just issued $85 billion worth of debt over the last 12 months. They just issued some, some equity, $80 billion worth of equity. So they're all in. But it just seems like what happens when people are using it and not just people, enterprises and of course enterprises are using it. So I agree. But it is, it is hard not to look at some of the charts that we're going to get to and say this just doesn't feel normal now. What's not normal is the earnings growth and the revenue growth. Those charts that you just shared, Sean, we've never seen anything like that. What's happened with Micron and Sandisk and Western Digitals names? We've never seen anything like that. If the earnings are up 8x, what do you think the stock is going to do? These are, these are business, these are shares in the business. So of course it's going to happen. I love this quote from Meyer Statman. I think we all should remind ourselves of this anytime we are thinking about, you know, how confident we are in making a declaration about the future or the current crazy environment. The market may be crazy, but that doesn't make you a psychologist. So allow me to Grand Rapids Hedge, where we are, what inning we're in. So I tweeted this in 2017. This is a quote from the pseudonymous author Adam Smith. His real name was Jerry Goodman, I believe, George Goodman. And that's close. I might be wrong. He. So he wrote my, my favorite book of all time, Stock Market, but called the Money Game. Amazing book. He wrote another book called Super Money where he described everybody wondering when the party, when the bull market is going to end and I tweeted this in 2017 because you guys weren't, you know, market participants then, but there had been people that by 2017, had been saying the same about it being the end of the bull market for years. Like, people started calling in 2013. When we broke out to new highs, it was a defensive rally. So when we took out the.07 highs, it was being led by. By Staples and healthcare and Utilities, and it wasn't being led by, like, the high beta tech names. And there was a lot of people talking about the lousy breath and the defensive nature of the leadership. And I just remember vividly that those same people, four years later and even still today, quite literally, I put something on the slack with Josh and Ben the other day about one of the poster childs from that guy from that time who in 2013, I remember Josh and I laughing about something that he said, like, he's still doing the same, which is bonkers. But. But by 2017, people have thought that this bull mark was long on the tooth. And it was like, obviously, the story has evolved and. All right, so here's the quote. We are all at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know by the rules that at some moment, the black horsemen will come shattering through the great terrace doors, wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors. Lows who leave early are saved. But the ball is so splendid, the no one wants to leave while there is still time. So that everyone keeps asking, what time is it? What time is it? But none of the clocks have any hands. Perfect. Just. Absolutely. Absolutely. Chef's kiss.
- [26:27]
Sean
It's so well written. I was. When I. When I saw you put this in here, like, I felt as a young person, the ultimate risk. It feels like just as someone who's 28 and 2026, the ultimate risk is not investing in the stock market. And that feels so toppy to me. Like, to feel like if. If my friends or my family, like, aren't investing in their future, they'll get left behind. Josh calls it this. The stock market participants or the stock market. I don't know what he calls them. Some of those lines, like, that feels toppy, but I. It feels true these days.
- [26:59]
Matt
Matt, I'm ready to get into these charts right now. I'm ready to go full on. Let's do it.
- [27:05]
Michael Batnick
Let's go ahead.
- [27:05]
Sean
All right.
- [27:05]
Michael Batnick
All right.
- [27:06]
Matt
John, can we throw it this? Because it kind of ties into what we're talking about. Can you throw up this first chart? On the number of stocks that have doubled in the s and P500 this year. Okay, I mean I don't know if this sounds topy to you guys but. Or if this looks toppy, but 12 stocks in the S&P 500 have doubled year to date. So you're looking at the, the, the bars in the past are full years. So the amount of stocks in the S and P that doubled the count by year. But 2026, this is, we're like five months in and we've had 12 stocks double so far. It's pretty incredible.
- [27:42]
Michael Batnick
Well, what's your takeaway? Incredible. Which way?
- [27:46]
Matt
I mean it's incredible that after we had two 20% up years in a row, again we are having massive gains. And I think the real theme of this year that is different the past year is that everyone said hey, we can't do another 20% year. Like we're tracking right now to have back to, back to back 20% up years. And I think this idea that we as investors look backwards and say hey, just because last year we did 20% doesn't mean that we can't do it again this year. Or I'm sorry, just because we had a 20% up year last year, last year, we can't have one this year. It's gambler's fallacy. It's like betting red, red, red and expecting black next. It makes no difference. And that's just the environment we're in.
- [28:38]
Michael Batnick
Are you guys hearing from like what are your friends doing? So I think that people that have been in the market for the last five years are probably all the way in on, on all the memory stocks and whatever. Like I think they're probably kicking ass. But my sense is that this, this particular moment in time has, did not bring in new investors the same way that 2021 did.
- [29:04]
Sean
Totally agree for me, for me at least I don't have. I always thought a little like the, the day trading and the crypto and stuff were like a little overblown. Just in my little bubble. Like for the most part people are buying like low cost index funds and going to work, you know. But that's just been my experience, Sean.
- [29:22]
Matt
I was always. Today if you ask the average person should I buy or sell Micron right now? I think the average person would say. Would say Micron.
- [29:35]
Michael Batnick
No, I'm saying the average person would say what's Micron?
- [29:38]
Matt
Yeah, the average person would know. Well, the average person say what's Micron? But let's say the average investor. You asked Them, they would say sell. I think. I think at the time that everybody says buy is the time that we should take a step back and say, hold on, wait a second.
- [29:51]
Michael Batnick
It is. It is weird to have these competing thoughts in your brain. It's like, okay, I agree with you. If you were to ask the average viewer, I don't know if we could drop a poll in the chat, but is now the time to buy Micron? I'm guessing, like, an 87% of people say no. Maybe even 97% of people say no. So it's weird to say that there's, like, still. Still skepticism in the market when you see prices quadrupling. Like, how could those two things be? But I think it's like a nuance that is extremely important to understand.
- [30:20]
Sean
Michael, you had a line about us being young and unencumbered with our experience. Do you think that we're getting re. Encumbered by stocks continuing to go up? Like, is this our new hammer where we always buy all the stocks all the time and that we're getting now, like, re encumbering ourselves?
- [30:38]
Michael Batnick
It's hard to speak for the general public, I would say, for you to, like, no, you guys know that this. You're not going to have 20% gains every single year.
- [30:48]
Matt
Okay. I want to stick up for. For our generation, for the. When the people say that we have. We don't have experience in, like, really bad bear markets because we did experience 2020. Even if it was $400 in our brokerage account in college, it still hurt when it went to 260. It still was painful. And we experienced 2022, and we experienced 2025. Those were all, like, legit drawdowns. And I think. I don't know about past generations, but for my own, I think that there is this, like, as markets fall, we are more inclined to buy stocks than maybe people.
- [31:30]
Michael Batnick
Without a doubt.
- [31:31]
Sean
We're more informed.
- [31:32]
Michael Batnick
We're more informed. And also, it's a much more financialized economy. Like, the stock market is so prevalent today in ways that it wasn't during the past. So, for example, pull up this bespoke char chart. So they show, here's the current bull market, the red line chart against the nine other bulls since 1928 that lasted a thousand days. Matt, how do you think they did this? Do you think they ended the lines when there was a 20 decline? Or what do you think exactly?
- [31:53]
Matt
They. They do it to. To the peak. So they do it to the peak of the bull market.
- [31:59]
Michael Batnick
Got it. Okay.
- [32:00]
Matt
Yeah.
- [32:00]
Michael Batnick
Okay. All right, so look where we are today. So this starts in October of 2022. And compared to some of the other great bull runs, I'm not suggesting that this is going to follow surpass, who the hell knows? But you have to keep an open mind that maybe this, maybe this does go on a lot longer than people thought. It already has. What do you mean maybe it already has? In 2017, in 2013, people were saying, this is crazy. This doesn't mean it already has gone along with the people thought. But this particular, the AI bull market. Right. Because that's, that's the bull market that we're in. I don't know, it could be early.
- [32:33]
Sean
Also, look how normal it is. Like, there's eight other instances of this happening, and we're right there.
- [32:38]
Michael Batnick
Yeah.
- [32:38]
Sean
You know, here you go.
- [32:39]
Matt
I got stats, I got stats. The average, average bull market, five and a half years. We're three and a half years into the current one. If you use October 12, 2022. Okay. Average, average bull market gain 192%. We're at 112% using October 2022. So we're tracking again. This is like, that's five, that's inning. Five out of nine know we're 60% of the way there.
- [33:02]
Michael Batnick
So there's no doubt that this, this has been a, A, a concentrated environment. The winners are winning in a serious way. The losers are getting, getting killed. There's been a lot of dispersion and, and for the most part, in like the, in the, in recent weeks, it's been the larger mega cap tech stocks, it's been the NASDAQ 100 that I've just ran away from the pack. But yesterday I said to you guys, which is, God, I love working with you guys. It's so much fun to be able to do this because back in the day before you guys, like, I was, I couldn't say, hey, wait a minute, do this for me. I would, right? I was, I was doing it alone and I was using Excel, and when I saw something pop on the screen, I was like, I was getting excited with the screen. Now I can get excited with you two guys. It's great. So I sent you a chart of the Q's divided by the equal weight. And I said, hey, I think something just happened. Like, I think we just had a monster explosion in the equal weighted stocks versus just Apple and Nvidia and Microsoft and Google. So chart. What did we find?
- [34:09]
Matt
All right, let's chart on, John, chart on. All right, here we go. So, so Michael has, Michael watches the market all day, every day. Is that fair to say? Michael, you're like a hawk. Yeah. So there are certain people that can just feel like when there's a stat, you know, like Tom had it when I worked with him Funchere at Michael. You just can feel when it's at an extreme and this extreme was, is just insane. So this is the two day return spread of QQQ equal weight versus the cap weight, 5% highest ever. I didn't, I didn't realize this but it's happening right in front of our eyes. Like that's, that's broad based equal weight. Right. That's legit. So it's very impressive.
- [34:54]
Michael Batnick
All right, let's do software.
- [34:57]
Matt
All right. Is software back? All right, before we get to the software rally, I want to show you guys this clip from David Senra's podcast. John, can we run this? But you're doubtful of the creative ability of AI.
- [35:10]
David Senra
No, I'm not doubtful of anything. I'm totally open minded. But do I believe that? Remember what AI is, despite the fact that there are people in Silicon Valley who don't want you to believe this is people. Big data sets, lots of compute and a large language model mushed together. That's what they are. So data sets by their very nature are backward looking. Creativity by its very nature is forward looking. Creativity is informed by data. You're informed by those hundreds of books that you read when you have a podcast, you're informed by the ones you've listened to. How could you not be? But if yours was just a really high quality clone of Patrick's, who would watch yours?
- [35:50]
Matt
Okay, that clip was sent to me by my friend Aram. I can't take credit but I think in order to talk about software we have to understand the limitations of AI because we can make a better case for software in this rally. Having legs. If we can understand that AI is not just going to eat the entire world and there are still companies out there that are providing a lot of value that are not just AI. I wanted to get your guys thoughts on that clip. What do you guys think?
- [36:20]
Michael Batnick
Sean, go ahead.
- [36:22]
Sean
I mean I think it makes a lot of sense. You have to have that creativity to be able to do anything with the data like I had. I have the data too, but I don't make it look as pretty as you do, Matt, you know what I mean? Like thanks for the human element still is a, is an essential part.
- [36:36]
Matt
Right.
- [36:37]
Michael Batnick
So Matt, what I'm going to ponder that just in the Interest of time. What was. What's this next thing that you put in here?
- [36:44]
Matt
Okay, okay. So within 20 minutes of that clip being shared with me, I saw this viral tweet that was people asking Claude, how many days of the week have the letter D in it? And it kept getting the answer wrong. Like very simple. Every day of the week has the letter D in it. So I asked Claude, this is my. Claude said, how many days in the week have D in them? And said only one Wednesday. So going back to this idea that like, you know, AI is infallible and AI can just do everything that, that we want it to do. Not true. There's proof. Let's do this chart real quick on.
- [37:19]
Michael Batnick
Well, hang on.
- [37:21]
Matt
I mean, I went too fast.
- [37:22]
Michael Batnick
No, it's okay. So that's.
- [37:24]
Matt
I got it. I got excited.
- [37:27]
Michael Batnick
That sort of stuff is like a little bit lost on me because yeah, the machines aren't perfect and like. Yeah, sort of whatever. Like it's only. It's getting exponentially better and we feel it. Like I know you're using it every day and you feel it getting better. It's not perfect obviously, but sort of. So what? All right, go to this chart because this is incredible. What are we looking at, Matt?
- [37:48]
Matt
All right, look at this move in semis. Okay, so I know that we know that semis are ripping, but holy hell. Okay, the chart on the left is the rolling 44 trading day change. 44 days is since the March 30, 2026, like sort of short term low up 64 20. That's the second, the second highest return over 44 day trading period since 1993. And then on the right we have the rolling return since October 12, 2022, which is 912 trading days. And we've never had a 912 trading day change that is this high. It's 796% since October 12, 2022.
- [38:25]
Michael Batnick
What about 913? Now that's wild. It's unbelievable. Unbelievable. All right, so. So Kai Wu, who was on TCAF a couple of weeks ago, Kai, I think is the only person. Him and Semblance are the only two people right now that when they publish something, I just insta stop what I'm doing if I can and read it. So he was writing about the disruption in software and AI and how to think about the range of probabilities and outcomes. So I want to take a few of his charts. Let's go to exhibit three. So he is showing the forward price to earnings ratio for various companies as well as their max drawdown. And you know the names like we all understand very well what's going on here. Salesforce, Constellation and Atlasian, etc just absolutely kneecapped. The next chart is showing historical iconic disruptions. So think about, we all know what Netflix did to Blockbuster, what Amazon did to Radio Shack, what Amazon did to Borders. And he's showing like the cumulative return. These stocks basically go to zero versus what happens to the disruptors. Obviously they go on to, to generate extraordinary the wealth. But what's really face blowing is you don't. You see the stock perform, you see the stock react in many cases a lot quicker than the fundamentals deteriorate. So we've spoken on the show. Hey, Adobe, like it keeps, it just keeps hitting all time highs in terms of the earnings per share. The earnings per share keep going higher. But the market keeps saying don't believe you, this is a zero. Like this is. And I'm exaggerating, but like the market is saying this is not sustainable. I don't care what your earnings are today. Because the ultimate settle point is that's not a phrase. The terminal value is a fraction of what it is today. Next chart. So again we're using Blockbuster, Borders, McClatchy, which was, what was this encyclop, I can't remember what that was. Encyclopedias, I forget. And Radio Shack. And look at revenue per share like a Radio Shack. In particular, look what happened to the stock compared to the revenue. The stock was already like down 80% before the revenue peaked. Which is really, you know, Fs with your head. Same thing with Borders. Holy. The stock was basically a zero before the revenue peaked. So what do you guys think about where we are? Is Adobe ultimately just going to get vibed into the stone Age?
- [40:48]
Sean
It's kind of nuts. Like if you show that, that chart again, the revenue per share for Blockbuster, at least in that, in that pain, like barely. I mean it moved but like not that much compared to the stock price. It kind of makes me scared and honestly it worries me a little bit. And I know there was a positive piece to Kai's writing too, but it, it worries me, it makes me think that a lot of those AI companies that already got blown to bits, like the Salesforce, I mean, maybe there's something there. If the market's telling us there's something there. I mean there could be.
- [41:17]
Michael Batnick
So, Matt, these names all trade together for the most part at least. They certainly did during the Sass apocalypse. They were all trading in the same direction, but the top line Growth like these are not all the same at all. So I asked you to show me. Hey, give me, just give me the top line numbers. Like what's going on and what do we say?
- [41:37]
Matt
Yeah, John, you want to throw up this chart of the year over year revenue growth of these different hold holdings within IGV. There we go. I mean, Palantir, crushing 56% revenue growth. Datadog, CrowdStrike, ServiceNow. These companies are growing their revenue. I think the weakness in these stocks is the market just rerating them and saying the multiple is not as premium as it deserved before artificial intelligence. Literally. And there's a rerating that has to happen. And like those charts you showed before, Michael, the stock price is going to discount. What's going to happen? The stock price is going to, like, the price moves first and the reasons will follow later. And we don't know the reasons yet. But the market will tell you that bad things are happening before the bad things actually happen.
- [42:29]
Michael Batnick
I think so let's assume, I think we would all agree that there are zeros in here. There are literally companies that will go bankrupt. Do you think the group. And let's use igv. Do you think the group bottomed?
- [42:44]
Sean
Yes, I think so too. I think there's part of, I think there's part of software that's going to continue to work. John, if you want to chart on, it's a little further down, but it's this Cyber etf, CIBR etf. Like when I first looked at this, I was like, what's kind of driving the igv? The top five contributors to the IGV year to date are Palo Alto Networks, Crypto, CrowdStrike, Oracle Datadog, and Fortinet. So four or five are cybersecurity. Look at some of these returns within the CIBR ETF, which is, which is cyber security. Like, CrowdStrike's up what, 70%. Datadog up 100%. Like, and there's a lot of like, big returns in here.
- [43:25]
Michael Batnick
Software's almost flat year to date. And not to brag. On Tuesday, April 14, I did say that looked like a bottom. Josh pulled out a UBS report, a bearish UBS report. He took their side. I think I was right on that one.
- [43:42]
Matt
It's almost like investors. What's, what's the. Threw the baby out with the bath water. Like they, they get killed. Everything, it was like a wave. Everything got taken out and then it wasn't as bad as we all thought. Like everything. Like every single risk that happens in stock market and Then we pick the winners. And I think that the entire, the IGV as a whole, even though a third of them might be duds, can still continue to perform well if we have this concentration of companies that continue to be earnings and continue to expand their moats even if they're software companies and that power law can continue to bring IGV higher.
- [44:22]
Michael Batnick
I looked at this last week. I was doing this week, but there's too much else to talk about. Microsoft. The relative weakness of Microsoft is insane. It hit a, it had a, it hit a like multi year low. If you divide Microsoft by spy or Q's and they are so tied into the AI trade with all of their investments that they're making, I wonder what the market is thinking with Microsoft. Are they just like the ultimate software will get disrupted company?
- [44:53]
Sean
I feel like Excel could never get disrupted. Probably parts of, probably parts of it could be disrupted. But like could it be so tied to the open AI story and headlines like that's a problem.
- [45:06]
Michael Batnick
But that, but that's working. Like look at Oracle. Oracle is ripping because I think the market is saying, hey, that freak out that we had about that five year, $300 billion commitment, actually maybe they're good for it. So I don't know exactly what's going on with Microsoft, but. Matt, what's this chart that you made? Is this worth sharing or skip it.
- [45:24]
Matt
Which one? The, the best month ever.
- [45:28]
Michael Batnick
The after the global intelligence crisis.
- [45:31]
Sean
Oh, that's, oh, that was, that was my chart. It's.
- [45:33]
Matt
See, look at this guy. Look at Sean's charts.
- [45:35]
Sean
See, we can skip it. This is just a return for software. It is basic. We gotta skip it. Skip it.
- [45:43]
Michael Batnick
We'll move on. All right, all right, let's, let's do some mega IPO stuff. Matt, who pulled this?
- [45:51]
Sean
This.
- [45:51]
Matt
All right, so over the weekend. John, can you pull up this, this news newspaper clip? Okay. I sent this to our research group chat. So over the weekend I was reading Barron's and not to brag and I want to read this to the listeners. So PitchBook figures that SpaceX's IPO quote would generate more exit value than all VC backed IPOs in the last decade combined. There's the investment. There's the investment manager of the endowment at Washington University in St. Louis who plunked down $50 million on SpaceX nearly a decade ago, which is now worth in excess of a billion dollars. Here's the second stat that jumped off the page, not to be outdone, was the University of Michigan which reportedly invested $20 million in OpenAI now worth $2 billion. All right, so I found the data. They weren't lying. Can we pull up the next one, John? Here we go. All right, so this is an IPO for the age is the SpaceX IPO. If you sum up the combined total exit value Created by all VC backed IPOs over the past decade.
- [46:55]
Michael Batnick
Matt, what's this exit value? Speak, speak English.
- [46:57]
Matt
Okay. In other words, what they're doing is they're summing up the entire market value of all of the VC backed IPOs on their IPO day by year. And then that. So that's the individual bars. And then what I did was I took the last decade and I summed up the entire 10 year period between 2016 and 2025. And that's that $1.2 trillion there to the right. And then I compared it with SpaceX, which is going to be $1.8 trillion. And it's, you know, it's like 40, 50, 40% larger than all of the IPOs over the past decade. It's massive.
- [47:39]
Michael Batnick
All right, there's an obvious but here because we are getting, we've gotten a lot of emails from worried index fund investors about how they should think about what's happening with SpaceX coming in at $1.8 trillion. How does that affect them and what should they be thinking about? Sean, what do you got?
- [47:58]
Sean
I don't have the numbers on hand, but if you float adjust SpaceX's inclusion into, I think the S&P 500 was like, what did Cali Cox say it today? Around 197 1, 197th in terms of market cap in the S and P. So if you float adjust a lot of these, like if you're a 2 trillion dollar company, you don't just get to vault immediately to the top of the index. There's an inclusion period, what do they call the baking period?
- [48:22]
Michael Batnick
Seasoning.
- [48:23]
Sean
A seasoning period. And that's going to take some time.
- [48:28]
Michael Batnick
Chart.
- [48:28]
Matt
God, I wish we had this chart. Michael, we missed the heat map of the market caps.
- [48:32]
Michael Batnick
I showed Animal Spirits. It was a good one.
- [48:34]
Matt
Okay, well you guys will see it tomorrow morning when Animal Spirits is out. Yeah.
- [48:39]
Michael Batnick
Who pulled this quote from Matt Levine?
- [48:41]
Sean
That was my quote. And actually I'd be interested to get your take because Matt and I are unencumbered with some, with some of this IPO stuff. So I'd be interested hear what you think. This is Matt Levine Yesterday on the SpaceX situation, he said you can't overstate this. The Index Demand is not 100% of the stock available in IPO or 110 or even 50%, but it's plausibly more than 25%. It's not a short squeeze, but it's a lot. Add a reported 30% allocation to retail and arguably a majority of the IPO is being sold to price insensitive investors. And he ends with. That is one way to get a high IPO price.
- [49:19]
Michael Batnick
Yeah, there's a lot of, there's a lot going on here. I am doing a full episode on Talking wealth tomorrow with Aaron Dylan, because we're, we're probably going to spend 45 minutes on this topic. The thing that I think is getting people most upset. There's a couple of factors. Number one. Well, there's something. All right, it's the retail allocation. I think, I think I read that they're reserving up to 30%. Is that, did I make that number up or. Yeah, okay. All right. They are issuing 3% of the company. Like, that's what, that's what they're selling. Not existing shares. It's, it's 3% dilution. That's going to be the float, and that is tiny. Most companies, when they come public, let investors out and they sell a much larger portion of the company. So what is upsetting people. Listen, people don't love Elon Musk, right? Like, it's, it's, he's a lightning rod. The valuation which, you know, not forget about, but for the purpose of this, this conversation, it's the fact that they think that he is artificially limiting the supply, forcing the indexes to buy it. And there will be a lot of forced buying. And the other thing is the fast tracking. It's like people like, oh, they're changing the rules. Well, they have to change the rules because we've Never had a $1.8 trillion company come public before. The rules have to change because the market has changed. But it's the amount of time, if There is only 15 days from the IPO until it's entered into the NASDAQ 100. With such a limited supply, there could be a lot of chicanery, a lot of games being played and a lot of potential funky price action. I don't buy the exit liquidity stuff to retail investors. And, but, and then there's all sorts of other stuff with like the, the, the weird staggered lockup and the different thresholds for. So it's, it's complicated. It is a complicated situation. And one of the derivative impacts is because we are in a degenerate market forever and ever that will never go away. Bull market, bear market. There's always going to be that we see that makes people that, like. Takes your eye off the ball. There's a great example of it. So somebody's. Oh, my God. Somebody slightly moist. Viking.
- [51:32]
Sean
Is that your name, Matt, in on Reddit or.
- [51:34]
Michael Batnick
Yeah, Burner. My bad boys bought $129,000 in the SpaceX IPO. Except. Except this person bought. Not sp. Spcx. He bought spce, which was a Chamath SPAC back in the day. It's Virgin Galactic. And he put 129k into it. And, Matt, what happened next?
- [52:00]
Matt
All right, well, Virgin Galactic over the past 24 hours is down 48. So that's not great. I wrote a blog post about this today. Like, are we. I can't. Maybe I'm young. Maybe I'm just too young, and I don't know. But do we learn from our mistakes as investors? Or do people just keep making the same mistakes over and over again? You know, is this like a. Is this.
- [52:19]
Michael Batnick
I wrote a book called Big Mistakes the Best.
- [52:23]
Matt
Yes. All right, so here. John, you want to throw up this chart? Because I did visualize it for the people. Here we go. All right, so this is. That's getting me confused now. This is Virgin Galactic's price over the past 10 trading days. And so it went up, effectively went 265% and then got cut in half. It didn't effectively do anything. It skyrocketed and got cut in half. But I do want to make the point that I wouldn't call this, like, rampant speculation. So can we do the next chart, too, John? Here we go. So this is our Degen Dao. This was created by Josh and Michael. You could see the tickers on the right.
- [53:00]
Michael Batnick
I had nothing to do with this. This was Josh and Sean, I believe.
- [53:03]
Matt
Okay, Josh and Sean. This is, you know, Rigatoni's in here.
- [53:09]
Sean
Gamestop.
- [53:10]
Matt
You know, Carvon is in here. There's, you know, Reddit. I don't know. But okay, it's still 20% off the highs, so there's pockets of weird things going on. But this is not like a systemic thing, like 20, 21, where everything is just going crazy. That's my take.
- [53:28]
Michael Batnick
Matt, you have a brilliant mind, and you're an artist. Show the world this next chart. This is so beautiful.
- [53:35]
Matt
Oh, man. Okay, guys, let's do this one. I have bullets to help me. Okay. All right, guys, so the chart on the left and chart on the right represent two different snapshots in time. Okay. So on the left you have the Russell 3000 stock performance during the 2021 meme stock mania. And on the right you have the Russell 3000 stock performance this year. Okay. And so I've bucketed the performance in both periods into 20 groups. That's along the x axis.
- [54:02]
Sean
Ventiles.
- [54:04]
Matt
Ventiles. I pledge to never say that word in my life.
- [54:07]
Sean
Ventilators.
- [54:08]
Matt
Okay. Okay. So in 2021, you'll notice that it was the smallest companies. Those are like the mini bubbles on the left. Those are the smallest companies that have the highest returns. That's GameStop, AMC, the meme stocks. And in 2026, it's the largest companies that have generated the returns. It's like Micron, AMD, Western Dig is in there in the 20th ventile. Thank you, Sean. And so it's two different markets. And so people are trying to conflate 2026 to 2021. It's just two different things.
- [54:42]
Michael Batnick
Love it.
- [54:43]
Sean
Can I make a comment? Is this just rates like in 2021? Does it make sense that the small caps are outperforming the large caps because rates are at zero, and now in 2026, the large caps are outperforming small caps because rates are at whatever they are, 3 to 4%? Or is that like too, too stupid?
- [55:01]
Michael Batnick
I think there's. I think there's a lot of truth there. There was no value to cost of capital or when you were getting paid back. So anything went. And in environments like that where money is free. Who gives a. Just bid him up.
- [55:17]
Matt
Who gives a. Just bid him up. I love that.
- [55:19]
Michael Batnick
Okay, all right, next topic. What do you guys got?
- [55:21]
Sean
Speaking of bidding up, we have Sean and Matt's best breakouts. And that felt like a great transition. So I just cut in front of Matt. Go ahead, Matt.
- [55:29]
Matt
No, dude, you're up. Dude, you go.
- [55:31]
Sean
You want me to go first?
- [55:31]
Matt
Okay, I'm done talking. You go.
- [55:33]
Sean
All right, we can. John, we can jump to my chart. My ugly. Not as pretty as Matt's chart. The Honeywell. Honeywell chart.
- [55:42]
Michael Batnick
All right, Honeywell, this is the stage. What are we doing here?
- [55:45]
Sean
All right, I'm sorry. I'm so sorry. Let me set the stage. Matt and I often talk about stocks that are breaking out. And we like to look at the stocks in pretty consistent high trending breakouts. So we thought it would be fun to take a look at some of the stocks that we've been looking at that we think are on our Breakout list. So we're, we're doing, we're calling this Sean and Matt's best breakouts or bbos.
- [56:12]
Matt
These are the bbos.
- [56:14]
Michael Batnick
What's your favorite bbo? Let's go.
- [56:15]
Sean
All right, let's go. A couple bbos. All right. This is Honeywell stock on the, the chart. On the left we're looking at a three year chart. Weekly candles. And on the right we're looking at a 10 year price chart. Honeywell pulled back about 3% from all time highs. 220 is a key support level to watch. That's the former range ceiling. That is now a floor. We've been seeing a handful of higher highs and higher lows. Josh would call this a consistent uptrend or an orderly breakout. If it holds this range above 220 to 225 or even re accelerates we would be in the money. And again using a Josh Brownism you can set your trailing stops at about 22:20 and a close beyond that below that would be an issue.
- [56:59]
Michael Batnick
Yeah, So I, I'm not going to buy the stock. Not because I don't like how it looks because you can't buy every stock. Okay. But if I were to buy the stock, I don't like it here, I would buy all time highs. I thought that's more work.
- [57:13]
Matt
Hold on, Sean, let me give him, Let me give him a run for his money. Hold on.
- [57:16]
Sean
Give it to him.
- [57:16]
Matt
No, I'm just kidding. No, I'm kidding. No, you finish your thought.
- [57:18]
Sean
Okay. One, one more quick one, Michael, which I think you'll like. John, go to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets. I know Michael Batnik is a big emerging markets guy. He's a big valuation guy. I'm just kidding. He's not. Emerging markets is up 28% the last year. It's up 58%. I'm sorry, it's up 58% the last year. But 28% year to date. I would say most people are probably under allocated to emerging markets. This base, they call it a base. This base that you know it's been trading in has literally been developing since I was 9 years old and I'm 28 and. What's, what's the line, Matt? The larger the base, the higher in space.
- [57:54]
Matt
The, the larger the base, the higher in space, baby.
- [57:56]
Sean
Higher in space. So what do we think about that, Michael?
- [57:58]
Matt
That's not my line.
- [57:59]
Michael Batnick
That's JC quoting Luis Yamada. I love that chart. It's. Yeah. I mean listen, obviously we know it's driving It. Samsung and SK Hynix are huge components. This is an AI trade. It's very. It's so funny how that happens. EM is now an AI trade, but it is. So where AI goes, the M will follow. But, yeah, it looks great. Gotta be long, Matt. All right, what else we got?
- [58:24]
Matt
All right, here we go. I know we gotta move, so let's just throw up this inverse head and shoulders explainer. Okay, so this is a bullish reversal pattern. And this is a graphic I found online that just shows what an inverse head and shoulders is. So you got the left shoulder there, the head and the right shoulder. And so, John, can you show this next? Here we go. Okay, so these are my BBOs. And on the left we have a REIT. Okay. This is for the people who are looking for that next thing, that next 10 year uptrend. Okay.
- [58:59]
Michael Batnick
Are you saying Host Hotels and Resort is the next Nvidia?
- [59:02]
Matt
Yes, that's right. That's right, Michael. Next Nvidia, right here on the left. So you got the left shoulder. Head, right shoulder. These are monthly candlesticks going back to 2012. We haven't quite cleared the. I mean, we've cleared the neckline, but there's still another test of resistance around. I think it's 24,5, so look out for that. But I got my eye on this. And then on the right. This is a traditional breakout for you, Michael. This is Cadence Design Systems. This is also a relative outperformer within the software space. On an absolute basis, it's breaking out. If you really zoom in on that, on that candlestick, which we don't have here, but Holy hell. That's a bullish candlestick that we have recently. This is a weekly chart. What are your thoughts?
- [59:42]
Michael Batnick
I love both of these. Try it back on for a second. I don't really. I don't really. So the, The. The head and shoulders pattern is one that you see in textbooks, not in real life. Although this looks pretty clean. And the reason why I like this so much is. Or this idea is they are. These are psychological patterns that repeat over and over and over again. JC would disagree. I don't believe there's any price memory from 2014. I just don't. I think it's a completely different group of shareholders. But if you zoom in on that chart, it looks awesome. And same with. With Cadence. I've never heard of either of these companies, but yeah, these look phenomenal. These. I mean, they're going higher. The late John Borman, rest in peace, said something to me that I wish I was able to institute in real life, which I have trouble doing, hence my money in Porterhouse, because the computer will buy what I won't. And he said, it's so simple and it's impossible to refute. If you want to make money in stocks, you want to buy a stock because you want it to go higher. Buy one that's already going up, it makes it a lot easier. And it's a me. It's a lesson, Matt. Yes. If people learn from their mistakes, sometimes we just are who we are as investors. It's just, it's. It's. You know, it's hard to rejigger your software, which is why it's so important to have rules. Right. So I still struggle looking at things that are going down. But I've. I've gotten better over time. At least I think I have a little bit better. All right, boys, listen, before we get to the mystery chart, you guys killed it. Holy. You did so good. I'm so proud of you. To be able to do for you two what Josh has done for me gives me an incredible amount of joy and personal satisfaction. And I'm just so happy for you guys. You're doing great.
- [61:29]
Sean
Thanks, Michael. This has been a blast. Thank you for having us.
- [61:31]
Matt
Thank you so much, Michael. Yeah.
- [61:33]
Michael Batnick
All right, so, Sean. All right, you got a mystery chart for us? What do we got?
- [61:37]
Sean
Let's mystery chart us. This is for both of you guys. I have. What? Okay.
- [61:43]
Matt
No, just. No.
- [61:44]
Sean
No.
- [61:45]
Matt
Okay.
- [61:45]
Sean
You know, I have a few hints. Okay, this is a communication stock. The market cap is about 9 to 10 billion dollars. However, I think it is really more discretionary than anything else and maybe even a little bit real estate. And then take a look at Covid. Like, this literally was like a Covid crash. So that's kind of. That's kind of a hint. John, can you do the next chart? The trailing twelve month revenue again. Covid really hammered this and it didn't ever really recover, which surprised me. But.
- [62:15]
Michael Batnick
Sean, hold on, hold on. This is great stuff. Do we know this name?
- [62:19]
Sean
Yes.
- [62:20]
Michael Batnick
Okay.
- [62:20]
Sean
You know it so well. Actually, I don't. I don't know if you know many things better. Okay, last hint. Yeah, last hint. There's a. There's a spin off coming.
- [62:30]
Michael Batnick
Oh, I know. I do know. Go ahead.
- [62:32]
Sean
And this is Halo. Like af. Like there will literally never.
- [62:36]
Michael Batnick
All right, I got it.
- [62:36]
Sean
Another one of these.
- [62:37]
Michael Batnick
I got it.
- [62:38]
Sean
Go ahead.
- [62:38]
Michael Batnick
Is it Sphere?
- [62:40]
Sean
It's. It's the MSGs.
- [62:42]
Michael Batnick
MSGs. All right.
- [62:42]
Sean
It's the next.
- [62:43]
Michael Batnick
Yeah. Okay.
- [62:45]
Matt
So it is so impressive how you just. Just go week after week after week. Like, this is hard to do to know what.
- [62:54]
Sean
John, show the. Show the Knicks chart for Michael.
- [62:57]
Matt
Oh, my God.
- [62:58]
Sean
All right, so this is. It's the Knicks on. On the spx. Since the Knicks last won their championship. I don't really have any thoughts or comments to say other than go Nicks.
- [63:09]
Michael Batnick
And I can't believe this. I can't believe I don't own the stock.
- [63:13]
Sean
Yeah.
- [63:13]
Michael Batnick
It's just so pathetic.
- [63:14]
Matt
Yeah.
- [63:15]
Michael Batnick
But. But I did place a futures bet. I think the Knicks were. Plus, I bet 500 to win three. 500. So whatever that math is, that'll do. The first. It's the first, like, futures bet that I've ever done that I cashed in. I mean, I don't do like a million futures bets, but hey, it'll pay for. Pay for some playoff tickets or one playoff ticket.
- [63:35]
Sean
Nice.
- [63:35]
Michael Batnick
But going next. All right. Great job, Sean. Hell of a mystery chart. All right, guys. As I said, phenomenal job. Excited to do this again and people that stuck with us through the whole hour and four minutes, thank you very much. This is a lot of fun for me personally. I hope you enjoyed it as well. We will be back with our regular scheduled programming next week. Ben and I have an Animal Spirits coming out tomorrow. We have two amazing guests on T Camp this week. One is new. Cannot wait for that. We will see you next time. Have a great night.
- [64:14]
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