Oh my god don't get RSV it's so shit. We will be back with TCRP soon. My brain has been goats cheese. It's been a hell of a fortnight but there's a lot going on and it must be laughed at. In the meantime, here is a plethora of Jacks to satiate your auspol cravings.

This week the shownotes are slopped to you by GPT 5.5 - which seems to have done an okay job and also sounds a lot less 'chatGPT' which is nice. The titles are way less shit than usual. Maybe that sociopathic compulsive liar Sam Altman is onto something.

Nah.

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In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, recorded on 2 July 2026, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take a wide-ranging look at the political, economic and sporting stories shaping Australia and the world.

The episode opens with Australia’s housing market, including recent house price falls, the risks facing first home buyers using the 5 per cent deposit scheme, and the dangers of negative equity. The Jacks then turn to the striking rise of One Nation, debating whether the surge is a genuine long-term disruption in Australian politics or partly a mirage fuelled by social media, disinformation and dissatisfaction with the major parties.

Victorian politics comes under close scrutiny, with discussion of Moira Deeming, the Matthew Guy allegation, Jess Wilson’s leadership, and Jacinta Allan’s handling of the Big Build controversies. Internationally, the episode covers Andy Burnham’s likely move into Downing Street, Keir Starmer’s defence spending announcement, Trump-era decision-making as explored in Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman’s book, congressional stock trading in the United States, and the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The show wraps with sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement from international cricket, England’s reckless loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another World Cup final.

00:00:25 — Welcome to Episode 163

Jack the Insider opens the show and marks the start of the new financial year in Australia. Hong Kong Jack joins from Hong Kong, where the previous day marked Reunification Day, the anniversary of the handover to the People’s Republic of China.

00:01:10 — Housing Prices, First Home Buyers and Negative Equity

The Jacks begin with Australia’s housing market and recent reports of price declines in suburbs with strong uptake of the 5 per cent deposit scheme. They unpack the risk of highly leveraged first home buyers falling into negative equity, where the debt on a property exceeds its current market value.

Hong Kong Jack recalls the early 1990s Melbourne housing market, when banks were reluctant to sell distressed inner-suburban properties because doing so would have further damaged the market. The discussion compares that period with the global financial crisis in the United States and Ireland, where property crashes led to widespread foreclosures.

00:04:00 — Can Australian House Prices Keep Rising?

The conversation turns to whether Australian housing can continue producing the large capital gains many homeowners have come to expect. Jack the Insider argues that prices in Sydney and Melbourne cannot keep rising at the same pace without locking younger buyers out of the market.

Hong Kong Jack makes the broader point that Australia’s tax and investment settings have made owner-occupied housing unusually attractive compared with other investments, contributing to long-term affordability problems.

00:06:36 — Could Money Shift from Housing to the ASX?

Jack the Insider speculates that if housing becomes less reliable as an investment vehicle, more money may flow into equities and the Australian share market. The discussion also touches on the weak outlook for CBD commercial property, with work-from-home trends continuing to affect demand.

00:07:25 — The 5 Per Cent Deposit Scheme

The Jacks assess the Albanese government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme for first home buyers. Hong Kong Jack says it may provide some help for young people trying to enter the market, but it is not a magic solution to housing affordability.

They discuss the practical challenge of borrowing large sums with very little equity, especially if prices flatten or fall. The risk for banks and borrowers is that buyers may end up with little or no equity for some time.

00:10:41 — The One Nation Surge

The episode moves to One Nation’s rise in the polls. Jack the Insider notes that One Nation polled around 6.5 per cent nationally at the previous federal election but is now polling far higher, with some figures placing the party in the 20s.

The Jacks discuss possible reasons for the surge, including public dissatisfaction with the major parties, the political aftermath of the Bondi terror attack, and the way right-wing voters are shifting away from the Coalition.

00:11:48 — Social Media, Bots and the “Mirage” of One Nation

Jack the Insider raises concerns about foreign influence, AI-generated videos, disinformation and bot-like social media activity targeting Australian politics. He cites examples of fake or misleading material involving Natalie Barr, Anthony Albanese and claims about Labor figures selling property after the budget.

He argues that some of the online activity appears designed to attack both the government and the Coalition while indirectly benefiting One Nation. He describes part of the One Nation surge as a “mirage”, while acknowledging that real-world results, such as the South Australian election and the Farrar by-election, show the party has genuine support.

00:18:20 — Is One Nation the Biggest Political Disruption Since World War II?

Hong Kong Jack argues that, even allowing for some mirage factor, One Nation’s polling makes it the biggest disruption to Australian politics since World War II. He compares the party’s current position with the historical performance of the DLP, Australian Democrats and Greens, none of which reached similar national polling levels.

Jack the Insider counters that One Nation’s rise appears to be splintering the right-wing vote rather than pulling substantial support from Labor or the left. The Jacks agree the Liberal Party has a major strategic problem: it must rebuild its primary vote while deciding how directly to confront One Nation.

00:21:56 — What Should the Liberal Party Do?

The Jacks discuss the Liberal Party’s path back to competitiveness. Hong Kong Jack says the party should stop obsessing over polls and focus on hard policy work, local campaigning and the basics of politics.

Jack the Insider argues the Liberals will eventually need to attack One Nation directly. His view is that conservative voters must be told clearly that a vote for One Nation is likely to help return Labor to government or create instability.

00:23:38 — Pauline Hanson, Policy Uncertainty and Senate Attendance

Jack the Insider criticises Pauline Hanson’s policy understanding and parliamentary work ethic, citing her position on maternity leave and Senate attendance. He argues that One Nation’s shifting policy framework and uncertainty will become more apparent under greater scrutiny.

The Jacks also discuss preference flows and whether the Coalition can rely on One Nation preferences if the right-wing vote remains fragmented.

00:26:51 — Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy and the Victorian Liberals

The conversation shifts to Victorian Liberal politics. Jack the Insider discusses Moira Deeming, who is likely to face disendorsement, and says Jess Wilson appears to be handling internal party discipline more effectively than previous Liberal leaders.

The Jacks examine Deeming’s allegation involving Matthew Guy and the CCTV footage that emerged afterward. Jack the Insider argues that the Victorian Liberals must deal firmly with internal destabilisation if they are to present themselves as a credible alternative government.

00:31:00 — Don Farrell on One Nation and the Bondi Attack

Hong Kong Jack notes that Labor frontbencher Don Farrell has attributed One Nation’s rise partly to Coalition division and partly to a post-Bondi surge. Jack the Insider questions whether the Bondi attack will become a lasting voting determinant, suggesting it may prove to be a temporary political factor.

The discussion also covers One Nation and the Greens voting against proposed bans on hate preachers, despite rhetoric about the issue after Bondi.

00:33:08 — Newspoll, Labor’s Position and Coalition Trouble

Jack the Insider discusses polling showing Labor improving, One Nation slipping slightly and the Coalition struggling. He argues that the Coalition must win back a large share of One Nation’s support if it is to become competitive.

The Jacks consider whether One Nation has reached its high watermark or whether the movement has deeper staying power. They also note that Labor and the Greens together remain in a strong position if the conservative vote continues to fracture.

00:38:08 — Jacinta Allan and Victoria’s Big Build Problems

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan comes under scrutiny over the Big Build projects and allegations surrounding inflated costs and union influence. The Jacks discuss reporting by The Age’s investigative unit and Nick McKenzie, including claims about contractors being asked whether they could do deals wi...