This weeks shownotes are brought to you by Microsoft CoPilot - and I think that's funny. Why? Because nobody really uses this outside of work. But here I am - using it. But I can all hear you say - "but Joel, producing the Two Jacks is essentially work" and I would agree. But let's not get carried away on such things.

But I do get to compare and contrast AI models. And I do like the podcast (when the audio isn't fucked) so I guess I'm breaking even. Right?

Highlights: copilot refuses to acknowledge my prompt that clearly states Jack is not me (he's just using the login) and also the FUCKING NERVE at the end to say it's produced by Two Jacks. Copilot suuuuucks.

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Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest stories: a downgraded Australian growth forecast, renewed Middle East tensions and oil-price risk, the cost of housing regulation, a controversial podcast appearance by the Prime Minister, new Pacific security ties, UK political drama, and a full sports roundup. The conversation mixes policy analysis, local anecdotes and sharp takes on political judgement.

From the transcript: “The firm expects headline, inflation to remain elevated above 4% and unemployment to peak at 5%.”

Shownotes with timestamps

(All timestamps advanced by 25 seconds to allow for theme music)

00:00:25 — Welcome and housekeeping

Hosts: Jack the Insider (speaking as Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack open the show and trade personal updates (dental woes, home repairs).

00:02:12 — Australian economy update

Topic: Deloitte downgrades growth to 1.3% this financial year; inflation and unemployment outlook; RBA commentary on Commonwealth spending. Key takeaway: growth is slowing and inflation remains a problem.

“Australia’s growth outlook has deteriorated over the past six months. The economy is still expanding, but growth has slowed and the outlook has become more fragile.”

00:06:05 — Middle East and oil risk

Topic: Iran, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, US options and the long-term economic impact of sustained higher oil prices. Discussion of the limits of military options and the political timing pressures in the US.

00:11:36 — Housing, regulation and planning delays

Topic: RBA 2018 study on Sydney housing regulation costs; local DA delays, heritage listings and the cost of permits. Practical points on streamlining approvals and supply-side fixes.

00:20:54 — Political gaffe: Prime Minister on a podcast

Topic: Reaction to the PM’s Nova-style podcast appearance and awkward answers; media-advice failures; debate over whether senior politicians should accept small‑reach podcast interviews.

00:31:40 — Pacific security and Fiji treaty

Topic: New treaty with Fiji makes it Australia’s fourth alliance partner; strategic context and China’s regional activity; soft-power vs bidding-war approaches.

00:35:40 — UK politics and Nigel Farage

Topic: Farage resigns his seat and triggers a by-election amid funding questions; Andy Burnham’s expected rise to Prime Minister and the legitimacy challenge for leaders chosen without a general election.

00:46:58 — Europe and Germany’s budget push

Topic: Germany pushes back on EU spending plans and flags competitiveness concerns; energy and industrial cost pressures.

00:55:50 — Russia, Ukraine and military developments

Topic: Ukrainian strikes, Crimea pressure, and the risks of escalation; discussion of cruise-missile production and defensive needs.

01:12:30 — Sport roundup

Topics covered: Women’s cricket dominance; World Cup highlights (Argentina, Norway, Mbappé); State of Origin; AFL/NRL broadcast deals and coaching moves; track standout Cameron Myers.

Key quotes from the episode

On the economy: “Inflation has re-accelerated, interest rates have moved higher and the oil price shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East is not yet fully resolved.”

On housing regulation: Hong Kong Jack: “If you could have that $380,000 that it was seven years ago that comes onto the cost of building a house in Sydney, just think how much better off people in Sydney would be.”

What we liked and what to watch

Worth following: developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any new RBA/Treasury commentary on growth and inflation.

Local watch: NSW planning reforms and ICAC inquiries into property development.

Politics: the fallout from the PM’s podcast appearance and the UK by-election dynamics around Nigel Farage.

How to listen and get involved

Subscribe on your favourite podcast app.

Send us feedback or story tips — Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack read listener mail each week.

Share this episode if you found the housing or geopolitics segments useful.

Produced by Two Jacks — Episode 164. Thanks for listening; we’ll be back next week.