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Mikey Sherrill
I don't really run to run campaigns. I run to govern. I run to get into office and to make change and to get stuff done.
Dasha Burns
Hello. Hello and welcome to the Conversation. I'm Dasha Burns, POLITICO's White House Bureau chief. And every week on this show, I invite one of the most compelling, sometimes unexpected power players in Washington and beyond in for a chat to find out how they're navigating and shaping this incredible era of American politics. And guys, you know I am obsessed with elections. So we had to go big for this week's episode of the Conversation because there was an election this week. Yes, it was an off year election, but these results are going to set the tone, set the narrative, set the strategy for both Democrats and Republicans going into midterm season, which I say officially kicked off this week. Democrats swept. It was not even close. New York City elected a Democratic socialist in Zoran Mamdani. Gavin Newsom's redistricting initiative passed in California. And both Virginia and New Jersey now have female governors, moderate Democrats, and Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger. And I got a chance to talk to one of the people that is sure to have Democrats taking notes, New Jersey's governor elect, Mikey Sherrill. I caught up with her just after her landslide winning. Now, Cheryl burst onto the scene back in 2018 when she flipped her Republican district blue. She's a former Navy helicopter pilot who's known for her pragmatic approach to politics. And that approach was front and center in this race, guys. This was a very closely watched election because Republicans wanted to see if the gains that Trump made in New Jersey in 2024 might translate to the Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciatarelli, who. But it was a blowout for Cheryl and Democrats are likely then to be using her as a blueprint going into the 2026 midterms. We talked about all of that, how she got here, why she believes that the economy is the key to reaching voters and what she hopes to do on day one. Then I sit down with James Blair to talk about the Republican side of all of this. Blair was the political director for Trump's 2024 campaign. He was one of the architects of their strategy to bring out low propensity voters, which Clear clearly worked out. He's, of course, now the White House Deputy Chief of staff, but he talked to us in his personal capacity to talk politics. You're going to want to listen very closely to both of these conversations. First here is governor elect from New Jersey, Mikey Sherrill. Governor elect Mikey Sherrill, thank you so much for joining the conversation. How does it feel to hear that Governor Elect?
Mikey Sherrill
It feels great. It's very exciting. So I was down in Trenton. I've met with the governor. Um, we've announced our transition team. So we are off to the races on day one.
Dasha Burns
Congratulations on the victory. Um, I want to kind of hear about that moment last night when you realized that you had won.
Mikey Sherrill
We were seeing really great numbers, so I had a. I had a sense that we were in a good space, but I'm also really superstitious former naval aviator, so you never quite know until, you know, um, and we had really great early returns. The models were looking like we were outperforming our models model. What I was hoping for was a big victory, a mandate so we could really govern well. And when it became clear that we were going to start to win by big numbers, that's when I got incredibly excited. I sort of in my mind thought, you know, I'd really like to have a 10 point victory here. And that's what I was modeling toward when that morning, some weird poll came out saying that it was tight. And, you know, everyone's like, oh, my gosh, is everything going on? I'm like, no, I, I think 10 points, but we'll see. But 13 points. I'm like, wow, that was pretty awesome.
Dasha Burns
I mean, the numbers were funky in sort of the final stretch there. What were the conversations like for your campaign as that started to Berkeley?
Mikey Sherrill
I'm not sure what they were pulling. We just looked at it. We're like, this makes zero sense. They were saying 60% of the black vote was going to go to Jack Ciadorelli, which there was just zero signs of that at all. I mean, zero. So that poll was odd. But again, I never really felt too nervous about my ability to win this one. I've been running in New Jersey tough for years. I knew what I had to do, and I know what success looks like when I start to see a lot of young people getting really excited, engaged. When I see a huge Volunteer effort. We had the biggest volunteer field effort that this state has ever run. And then I really start to see that as I'm talking about key issues that I'm focusing on, I'm getting a real response from the community. So as I show up in a community and I start talking about exactly what it is I've charted out in the community, like, yep, that's it. That's exactly what I want to see. So all of these things were really good on the ground. Our internal polling was very good. We were in the right place, doing exactly the right things for a lot of time now. And then as we started to see the votes come in, vote by mail, we started to say, whoa, we're really overperforming here. So that started about several weeks ago. And then we started to get that early in person vote. And, you know, our early in person vote's a little newer. So as that started to come in, really overperforming. By the time we got to election day, we had about a 300,000 vote firewall, a blue firewall. It was at that point felt like just a matter of how much we'd win by. So that's great.
Dasha Burns
Yeah, I mean, there was a lot of talk toward the end there that this could be a real nail biter, really close or potentially that your opponent can win. We don't have a final vote count yet, but yeah, it looks pretty much like a blowout. What do you make of all that underperformance talk?
Mikey Sherrill
I was kind of thinking we'd have a big day. Yeah, blowout is the word. It was a big, big day. So that was wonderful to see. The narrative was weird in the primary and it was weird in the general. And I think some of that was because of how people felt from 24. But, man, I mean, you look at the no Kings protest, and I kept looking at everything going on, not just here in New Jersey, but around the country, and thinking, what are people missing? Because we're seeing energy. And I mean, I would have people come in, we do, you know, a 500 person rally, and they'd leave saying, I don't know if there's any energy on the ground. I'm like, well, I don't know what else to show you guys. I went to Ocean county, which is like the reddest of the red counties. I think I was there last Wednesday or something on a. On a Wednesday afternoon. We had hundreds of people out in like ruby red Ocean County. Again, I'm superstitious. I always run through the tape I never take anything for granted, but I. I keep seeing these weird reports, and at what we're seeing on the ground.
Dasha Burns
You'Re like, this doesn't match up.
Mikey Sherrill
Exactly, Exactly.
Dasha Burns
I'm curious, did it ever cross your mind that, like, maybe gender could have played a role in underestimating you or your campaign?
Mikey Sherrill
It's kind of a known thing that women candidates in the Northeast, it's the toughest place for a woman to run. That could have just played into it. But I also think I'm a different kind of candidate, not just because I'm a woman, but because I've always built a different kind of campaign. In areas of my state. My state, we have what we call county organizations, party organizations that turn out a vote. I came up in a place that it wasn't organized. It was a Republican area. My district in 2018, I ran for the first time in a Trump district, and it was the heart of the Republican Party, historically Morris county, and which I just won. I'd like to say I'm very excited about that. And so when I ran there, there just wasn't an incredibly juggernaut of a Democratic machine there. So we always built our campaigns with grassroots support, with roundtables. We always had to get the swing vote because without it in a Trump district, you weren't going to win. I think the traditional Democratic campaign here for many years just has relied on the machine getting out their votes, and they did it in the blue areas and then done. And because we built this a different way, I think it wasn't as clear to people how we were doing it and how we were getting our votes out. And I think that probably made some people nervous. But I would say that we invested a lot of time, energy, and resources in a statewide field program, the likes of which had never been seen. We built out a field program that was very representative of our entire state. We had paid programs going on, and we also really worked well with the county party organizations, leveraging them to get out their vote.
Dasha Burns
You won decisively. We've talked about this. But down the ballot, we can keep talking about it. I know your favorite subject for a little bit here.
Mikey Sherrill
Yeah, I'm happy to keep talking about it.
Dasha Burns
But that win translated down ballot, too. Democrats lead in the state assembly expanded by at least three, which is to say that you're arriving with a very strong hand. So what are you going to do with it? Day one, Day one, I'm declaring a.
Mikey Sherrill
State of emergency on utility cast. So when I say that it was important to me to connect with people. That was one of the key areas that connected when I went to speak to people and again, I just would speak to thousands and thousands of people about what was going on, what was keeping them up at night, what was happening here. And obviously I don't think it's a secret affordability, but there was also a sense that everybody came in and told them, oh yeah, I'm going to do X or Y or Z. And nobody did anything. And their costs kept going up. And I was hearing that and you know, I was charting out a path how I was going to take on some of the entrenched interest in Trenton. Red tape, permitting delays, drive down costs, address some of the first time home buyers programs and taking on landlords or including. But I still had a sense that people maybe needed to hear how seriously I was taking their concerns about costs because they felt as if, you know, they kept hearing people come in and say, yeah, I'm going to address that. So finally I'm like, look, here's a proof point, here's how you can hold me accountable. I'm going to declare a state of emergency on day one and I'm freezing your utility costs. As a person who served in the military, I think people understand that I do decisive things, that my leadership style is of course coming from that place, going to be decisive, going to be proactive so they can trust I'm going to do it. I had some proof points. I became the most effective member in the New Jersey delegation only my second term in Congress. So I think I had some proof points there in my leadership. But they also knew where I came from and then also that I was a mom. So it was personal to me. The state functioning, families doing well, kids being able to move back here and afford a home.
Dasha Burns
I mean, talk about decisive. Like you came right out with that answer about day one. That was one of the most declarative answers to the day one question that I, that I've heard from a candidate, right?
Mikey Sherrill
And that's what people want, is this kind of bold action and a leadership and being willing to take on the key things for them, but then also being able in this time to stand up to the attacks on the economy coming from Washington. So, for example, Trump said he's going to terminate the Gateway Tunnel project. My opponent showed no signs of doing anything about that. He said it wasn't a New Jersey problem. The Gateway Tunnel projects, the Hudson river tunnels from New Jersey to New York. 200,000 commuters take them from New Jersey to New York. A day. So he just was obviously not going to take on Trump in any way. And that spoke to voters, too.
Dasha Burns
Speaking of taking on Trump, you are soon going to be governing with Donald Trump in the White House. How do you plan to navigate that relationship? Are there areas where you see room for cooperation, or should New Jerseyans expect that you will be a counterweight to Trump?
Mikey Sherrill
I'm really hoping that the administration can see how key it is to invest in New Jersey, because right now, I think they're seeing a free fall in the economy. Economy. 22 states are in a recession. Some are in danger of recession. But here in New Jersey, we have this opportunity with the Gateway Tunnel to provide almost 100,000 jobs. We have, you know, 20% of the nation's GDP comes out of the Northeast. Trump is really familiar with the Northeast. This is where he's from. We have the FIFA World cup coming here. We have the 250th anniversary celebrations coming here, huge investments in tourism. So there's a lot of economic activity going on in this region of the country. So I'm really hoping we can convince the administration, hey, you know, if you want to have a comeback in this economy, this is where you start, and this is how you do it.
Dasha Burns
Have you reached out or has the president reached out to you yet?
Mikey Sherrill
I haven't spoken to him yet.
Dasha Burns
But it sounds like for those kinds of key projects, especially infrastructure, you are interested in having a productive relationship.
Mikey Sherrill
I'm really interested in making sure I'm clawing back as many resources into the state of New Jersey as possible.
Dasha Burns
You campaigned as a moderate Democrat. New York City is just next door. A lot of your New Jerseyans commute in. As you said, New York City just elected a Democratic socialist as mayor. And there's a lot of talk about that dichotomy of, you know, both of you and of course, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia getting elected on the same day and the questions that raises about the future of the party. So how do you square your victory with his and what it means for Democrats moving forward?
Mikey Sherrill
I think what people want to hear is from a leader who is going to address their key issues, and then I think they want to see really good, clear results. I sort of run in maybe a way that's not. Sometimes I think it's not fashionable just getting on the ground, listening to people. I don't really run to run campaigns. I run to govern. I run to get into office and to make change and to get stuff done.
James Blair
And.
Mikey Sherrill
And so the best way to do that in a campaign is to hear from everyone, to understand deeply what's going on in your community and your state, and then take action to address it. And I think what we're seeing in all of these races, what all these races have in common, is there is this desire to make change, that things aren't working for people. And I think in the Democratic Party, we believe deeply that government at its best delivers for working people. And what I would say that the juggernaut of a campaign I built is built on that traditional, powerful Democratic base, working people. I mean, we saw every single county, we have 21 counties, every single county move to the left in this race. I think we saw 22 point swings in Hudson County, a big Latino county, I think about 18 point swing in Passaic County, a Latino and a black county, very diverse. So we saw these huge swings. And I think that's because working people in, you know, working class suburbs or black communities or Latino communities, working people need government to function well. They need really good schools because that's how we all see our kids is having great access to opportunity. Working people want to see access to really good jobs because obviously that's how they pay their bills. That's how they get access to opportunities. These bricks and mortar things of building a powerful Democratic message and Democratic Party come from working people. And I think what you're seeing in these races is a deep desire to address the needs of working people.
Dasha Burns
I want to pick up on a couple of things you just mentioned there. You talked about traditional Democratic values. You talked about appealing to the working class. There's been some criticism, including from within the Democratic Party, that Democrats have kind of lost their way on some of those basic issues of governing, like kitchen table issues, crime as an example. Do you agree with that criticism?
Mikey Sherrill
I'm a former federal prosecutor, so public safety has always been front and center for me. I'm also somebody who is the granddaughter of a union member. I track my grandpa's union job to taking us out of poverty and putting us squarely in the middle class and why I'm here today. So I would say that when we get away from focusing on some of those key issues to how people get access to opportunity. I have said multiple times, I am so pro choice, I know the devastation it breeds when women don't have access to make these choices with their doctor. But if I am talking to you about abortion and you cannot pay your rent, then we can't talk. You know, we've got to talk about the first tier issue. And for Working families, you can't get to the other issues if you aren't talking about, look, I'm going to make sure you can pay your rent. I'm going to make sure that you can feed your family. I'm going to make sure you have a comfortable job so that you're secure. Those are the key. You get to those, and then you can start to get to a lot of other things. But if you're not addressing those issues, then you're really leaving families hurting. Especially in these times, when you see the President of the United states, who has $6 billion that he could put towards SNAP funding and is refusing to do that, when you're looking at this, you're seeing, gosh, these are families that are in crisis sometimes right now. And if you're not addressing that, if you're not focused on that, then you can't get to other things. You know, in my acceptance speech last night, I was talking about liberty and prosperity. That's our state's motto. Liberty's great, but you can't be free if you are not able to prosper. If you don't have access to good schools or if you don't have access to a good job or good healthcare, you know, all the liberty in the world's not gonna get you very far.
Dasha Burns
Look, the midterms have started like this was the kickoff to midterm season. We're in it now. Democrats have had a pretty bleak year until this point. And I think they're gonna be looking to you to figure out a model for. For the path forward, for how to win over voters in 2026. What can you do in your role as governor to shape the national brand of the party?
Mikey Sherrill
I don't run campaigns to run campaigns. I run campaigns to govern. So I intend to govern incredibly effectively. People have often asked me, you know, what is the key to your success? I say, ruthless competence. That is what I want to deliver for New Jersey. And I think that's the best thing I can do for Democrats is deliver really, really well for the people of New J.
Dasha Burns
New Jersey. One of the things when you talk about cost of living, right, it does have among the highest tax rates in the country while also having those. Those affordability issues. Where do you see the balance of. Of more services versus lower costs for taxpayers?
Mikey Sherrill
We have 565 municipalities, and so each of those municipalities has a lot of different services. And right now, we're a little bit at the breaking point because we see these hits coming from government that are really impacting our budget. And then we see the property taxes, which is how we fund our schools. And then on top of that, we see a lot of the state taxes that go to funding our transit systems, etc, so we like our services, but we're not spending taxpayer dollars as efficiently as we can, which is why I've been talking about how we have to share some of the school administrative services so we can really put money into education, but bring down the cost. We have a bloated administrative system, how we need to share some of the municipal courts and really, really take on those ways of effectively spending money here, because we just are at a breaking point. The other real problem that we have in New Jersey is red tape and permitting issues. So you can be delayed for months, if not years in some of these projects. Just. I was speaking to a woman trying to open a small restaurant, and it took her eight months, three times she had to go in person, nothing online to get her permitting done. Each time it failed, she was not told why it failed, she just had to guess. And then each time she did, it cost her hundreds of dollars. All the while, she had to have her space ready to go to apply for this permitting. So she's bleeding money through paying rent on the space that is replicated across the state. So all of these costs add up to people. And as we're facing a federal government that's actively really harming the economy of New Jersey, we have to run our state incredibly well.
Dasha Burns
You have this military background. You are part of the group of women with military and CIA experience who called yourselves the badasses. Alyssa Slok and Chrissy Houlihan, Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, who also just won her race in Virginia. Can you talk a little bit about those friendships and. And how you think your time in the military has affected your approach to politics?
Mikey Sherrill
Yeah. You know, somebody told me today I am the first female veteran governor of the United States. So that's exciting. But I think that background of service and that training, we were trained in a certain kind of leadership, servant leadership, that to lead is as much to serve the people that are working for you. And the idea of accountability, so driving that accountability is always so important when you're in dangerous situations. So bringing that into my governing style, bringing that into how I lead, has, I think, been really effective as I've worked in Congress and something I intend to bring to Trenton as governor. And then I think you see the reason several of those women that you've named have been so effective themselves is because they come from that Same. Same kind of background that tough can do. Proactive.
Dasha Burns
And you and Spanberger, you guys were. Were roommates or you lived on the same floor?
Mikey Sherrill
Like, yeah, we were roommates. We lived on the same floor when we first moved down to D.C. and then became roommates. And in fact, we were getting text last night because Chrissy and Alyssa were watching the Returns together. So we were all texting.
Dasha Burns
Could you have imagined when you were like rooming, making coffee in the mornings together, like in your PJs, watching movies or whatever, that this was the future?
Mikey Sherrill
It is very striking. Some of the odd things. So she was born in New Jersey. I was born in Virginia. We both are the oldest of three daughters. We both were roommates. We both entered in. In that 2018 cycle. We both have the national service backgrounds. I was. Even as you're preparing for to give your, you know, a speech and acceptance speech, you kind of look into a lot of different quirky things about the state. And the very first two states to come up with a state motto were Virginia and New Jersey, sixth and Fraternus and Liberty and Prosperity. I mean, it just keeps. I keep finding all these things.
Dasha Burns
There's something cosmic happening. When you both were born, I think.
Mikey Sherrill
That it feels like it. Right? Right. It just kind of feels like, oh, my gosh. So. But it's been great. I tell people, I mean, how lucky, right, to know the person, the only other person doing what you're doing in the entire country right now, in the entire world. And you know them really well. And you can be like, hey, does this make sense? You know, text them right away, hey, what are you doing about this? That kind of thing. It's been. It's been great.
Dasha Burns
Soon that's going to continue as you guys take office.
Mikey Sherrill
Yes, it's been great. And I can't wait. I am hoping we can all figure out a time to get together soon.
Dasha Burns
Governor elect, thank you so much. I know this is a crazy time for you. We really appreciate you coming on.
Mikey Sherrill
Well, thank you so much for having me. This is great. And we'll talk soon. Thanks again.
Dasha Burns
Thanks so much to Governor Elect Mikey Sherrill for joining the conversation. When we return, I sit down with James Blair to discuss the GOP strategy for 2026. The conversation will be right back. If you're enjoying the show, please rate and review us. It really helps other people find the show.
PhRMA Sponsor
Today's episode is sponsored by Pharma. Picture this. A big hospital system pays $400 for a cancer medicine, but the charge on the patient's bill more than $5,000. That's what happens when hospitals abuse the 340B program. They can mark up medicines by 1000% or more. Hospitals pocket the profit, you pay the price. It's time for Congress to fix 340B. Visit phrma.org 340bmarcup to learn more.
Dasha Burns
Welcome back to the Conversation. Here's my chat with James Blair. James Blair, thank you so much for joining the Conversation.
James Blair
Good to be here.
Dasha Burns
I've been wanting to have this conversation with you for a while because you wear so many different hats, you're here today and your sort of personal capacity to talk politics. But of course, you are also deputy chief of staff in the White House. And there's a lot to talk about today because we're coming off of a pretty big win for Democrats in the off year election. Last night I know that Republicans were hoping for closer races than what they saw. So today, what is the mood for Team Trump in the White House?
James Blair
The mood's good. I mean, first of all, I don't think that there's anything that we personally didn't expect. We have a pretty good read on these races and what the numbers are. So there was nothing surprising, put it that way. If it was really good night, we would have been surprised. So the good news is still when we look at our data and we think a certain thing, it's telling us the truth. So that's the good news. The bad news is obviously you would hope that things go better. But I think a lot of the conventional wisdom, as usual, that's going to come out of last night is incorrect. And I'm sure we will unpack that today. But overall, we feel good. If anything. I just tweeted about it on my way over here. I feel energized this morning. We're a year out. We got plenty of work to do. We know what the path is. We know what we need to do. It's really just about execution.
Dasha Burns
Okay. So let's talk about some of the narratives coming out of last night. One of them is something that actually President Trump posted online saying he was not on the ballot. Right. He's never going to be on the ballot again. He said it. No attempt at a third term. Right. So how big of a problem is that for Republicans then?
James Blair
I think the question is, is the problem overcomeable? And I think that with a lot of campaigning next year, with a lot of resources in the right districts for the right candidates, that is an overcomeable problem. It's not abnormal for turnout to be down in an off year for a presidential party. I mean, the sort of general history of midterms is pretty simple. The party in power, the president's party's voters disengage, or a proportion of them disengage, and the opposition engages. So that's always been true. That's going to be true again, because generally, if you are a voter whose president is in power, you're relatively happy. You probably like what's going on generally, and the opposition is probably really upset and fired up. So you see that dynamic play out. So how do we overcome that? I think it's possible for sure.
Dasha Burns
Has last night, though, made you recalculate? Do you think he needs to be even more involved in the midterms now than you initially planned?
James Blair
I don't think any more than we initially planned. I think he'll be far more involved in the midterms than he was in last night's races. Blue states. And again, we had a sense of where they were going, so we engaged. We're part of the team, but I think he'll invest much more. And he was saying that this morning, even on the sort of core midterm races. Look, in 2001, the Virginia and New Jersey governor's race went to Democrats and who was in the White House and who had the trifecta? Well, actually, Republicans lost the trifecta in the Senate over the summer when the senator switched independent. But they'd had it in 2000. In 2002, they added seats to both chambers. That was one of the only two times that's happened in the last 90 years for the president's party, the other being FDR in 1934.
Dasha Burns
History lessons from James Blair.
James Blair
I'm just saying the idea that this has never happened before. And by the way, Mark Warner won that governor's race, I think, by like five points. And the New Jersey governor's race was probably like 15 points. So not that dissimilar in 2001. So, yeah, we have to break the mold. That's sort of the truth about midterms. But you mentioned turning people out. Well, if you look at the exit polls, the Trump recall vote in both Virginia and New Jersey is exactly the same point as in not a point more that the Republican candidates got. Now, that was about 5 points more left than those states were. So like 42% or something was the Trump recall vote in the exit polls, and that's who voted for the Republicans. The problem was Trump won those states. The Trump got closer to 47 in those states in 2024. So that shows you right there. There's a missing group right in the election.
Dasha Burns
Jersey especially, right. Those counties that, that Trump won, where he gained a lot of ground with, with voters. Those voters didn't show up for Jack Jettialli, even though Trump endorsed him and he did campaign. Well, there's some very much aligned, there's.
James Blair
Some people that didn't show up, but there's also people that, and it was a lot of those, frankly, skewing towards non white voters, skewing towards younger voters. Those people that sort of came along with the president, didn't come along. But you still have to win on the issues. I mean, it's not just simply Trump. So you also look at the exit polls. There's going to be a lot of narrative that basically says today that this is about Trump, it's a referendum on Trump. Well, no, it wasn't. And you know how we know that? Because the voters told us in the exit polls. If you look in New Jersey, about 40% of voters have it here, just to double check my numbers. Let's see. In New Jersey, 40% of voters said their vote was a vote to oppose Donald Trump, and only 38% said that in Virginia. So less than 40% of voters last night said that their vote had something to do with opposing Donald Trump. Those are exit polls. More than half a voter saying it has nothing to do with that. So these are individualized races. Those are Democrats. There's, of course, a number of Democrats in the electorate. But you have to get more people to turn out. They're going to have to pull people along and then they're gonna have to persuade people that the President did. But Republicans, frankly, haven't.
Dasha Burns
Well, that brings me to another narrative that I'm hearing out of last night, and that is cost of living. It's very clear that the economy is top of mind for people. Some of those folks you mentioned that voted for Trump in 24 but moved leftward, they do cite the economy as a challenge. One close ally of the White House told me last night, quote, people aren't feeling the promises kept. You won on lowering costs, putting more money back into people's pockets. And people don't feel that right now.
James Blair
Let's talk about the economy and what's actually happening and how we look ahead. But let's first talk about the races again. Let's go back to the exit polls. Fox News exit polls ask in both states, what is one issue that was most determinative and Making your vote. Right. And for, like, 42% of people or no, 48% of people. In Virginia, it was the economy. And guess what? Spamberger won those voters, like, 61, 39. Okay. And in New Jersey, it was about 32% the economy. And there was a segment on taxes. Jack won the taxes vote, but the number one issue on the economy also got beat, almost 60, 40.
Dasha Burns
So what's going on there, you think?
James Blair
Well, for one, it's what you campaign on. So 75% of Mickey Sherrill's ads were positive, overwhelmingly talking about cost of living and heavily talking about lowering power costs. Jack didn't really talk about that. He talked about taxes, and he won the tax vote, but he didn't address those key issues of affordability very effectively. He was mostly talking generically about change, New Jersey. And I'm not denigrating Jack, but it was not in line necessarily with what voters were saying. Two, in Virginia, over half of winsome Sears ads talked about transgender issues. And it's not even the top five issues, according to voters. Now people say, well, what about you? On the Trump campaign, You ran a famous trans ad that was an economic ad that had a trans component. It specifically said that Democrats are giving transgender prisoners money. They're paying for this while you're getting hurt. It was really an economic ad. It was about, what are we doing for you? Ad with a transgender bent that pushed them to the left. These are nuanced but significant differences. Why did Zoran Mamdani do so well last night? He relentlessly focused on affordability. People can talk about communists, they can say all these things, but the fact is, he was talking about the cost of living.
Dasha Burns
Folks that I'm talking to privately who are supporters of President Trump think that he needs to be talking about cost of living a whole lot more. Are we gonna see that pivot?
James Blair
I think you'll see the president talk a lot about cost of living as we turn the year and into the New Year. The president is very key into what's going on, and he recognizes, like anybody, that it takes time to do an economic turnaround. But all the fundamentals are there, and I think you'll be see him be very, very focused on prices and cost of living. But let's talk about where the economy actually is. If we could.
Dasha Burns
Well, can we stick on the politics of it? Because, as you very well know, because we saw this during Biden's presidency, there were good economic indicators. There were also some poor economic indicators, but he was touting the good stuff.
James Blair
Their economic indicators were false. We know that from the jobs revisions, people were feeling the reality of the job market.
Dasha Burns
But we know through the history of politics that the stock market is not something that indicates how Americans actually experience their economic reality.
James Blair
It's actually not true. A group of Americans do experience it that way. We asked this question in our surveys. There is a group of people that basically track the stock market that is different than the group of people who say the way they measure the economy. There's basically three ways, and it's different in the electorate. There's a group of people that measure the economy based on just sort of what stats say. At least that's what they tell us. Now, the truth is probably the number's not quite that high, but they at least generally follow the data. Then there's a group of people that say, what are my personal finances like at the end of the month? Okay. And then there's people that follow the stock market. They may have a 401k, they may have investments, they may have all of those things. And all three of those things are necessary to have sort of support from the electorate where you would want it to be economically, I guess.
Dasha Burns
Do you worry, because some Republicans have raised this to me privately, that they're concerned that Trump might be falling into the problem that Biden had, which was talking very positively about the economy, while a large segment of the American people did not feel like the economy was good for them.
James Blair
I think the president is very. Not tone deaf. And the president will take all of the feedback from last night and he will calibrate what he emphasizes sort of rhetorically, very specifically. You've seen him do it this before. He knows how to sort of use the dials and sort of communicating to voters what's going on and what he wants to do for them. But importantly, there's a difference between Biden with Biden. Inflation was actually surging. That was actually happening. We were actually seeing these giant price increases. So they were saying it wasn't happening, but it was. That's not true. Right now, inflation is flat. It's been flat all year to declining.
Dasha Burns
That still means prices are high for folks, though.
James Blair
It's not that prices aren't high, it's that they're not rising. This is a substantial difference. And prices have come down on a lot of things. And we think a year from now, they're going to continue to come down. Gasoline was up over 4 bucks a gallon. The national average just dipped under 3. We think that will continue to come down My dad just texted me the other day. He said, please tell the President thank you. I just paid 269 a gallon for gas. It's been a long time since I did that. Yeah, there still has to be time. That takes hold. Two people are going to get money back in their pocket. They're going to get tax cuts, and they're going to feel these things in April. And guess what? Every Democrat on both sides of the aisle voted against 100% of those. So people are going to get money back in their pocket that they're not really aware of right now. And their withholding is going to change in January. They're going to see more money in their take home pay as a result of that. So there's a lot of game to be played. This is just a moment in time. We're a year out.
Dasha Burns
One of the things that we heard from Trump allies last night is that candidate quality matters.
James Blair
Of course it does.
Dasha Burns
Will we see Trump weigh in more aggressively in the GOP primaries now? I'm thinking specifically about Senate battles like Georgia and New Hampshire where he hasn't backed a candidate yet.
James Blair
I mean, I think the president will weigh into most primaries and major races at some point. I mean, he already has in the majority. You mentioned New Hampshire and Georgia, but he's already weighed in in Michigan, he's already weighed in in North Carolina. He has endorsed the majority of the House for reelection. So there's a couple races out there that are sort of still pending. But he's taken a much more aggressive stance in primaries, sort of helping pick opponents very closely in alignment with House leadership and Senate leadership and our grassroots folks. I mean, I talked to our friends at Turning Point USA yesterday about a candidate in a swing district. We're trying to sort of get everyone rowing in the same direction. It's the most coordinated the party's ever been and I think that will pay dividends. So it's not 100% done yet. Again, we're a year out, but again, I think you'll see him very, very involved, particularly as we sort of wrap this year up.
Dasha Burns
I mean, I would say it's. The midterms are starting today.
James Blair
It's election season.
Dasha Burns
It's election season. I can smell it. I can smell it in the air. For you and the team who are thinking about midterm strategy, what are the red flags from last night and what are the lessons learned that we're going to see implemented in the coming months?
James Blair
Well, you can't get beat on the issue. That's Top of mind by 25 points and win, particularly not in a blue state. That's just not going to be an option. And your communication have to align to where voters are and what they care about. So you might try to make the race about transgender issues. But if voters are talking about the economy, if 48% of voters say their number one issue is the economy, and you spend half of your powder on an issue that's not even in the top five, it's just not going to work. I mean, that's fairly straightforward. Two, you have to motivate people. Yes, I think we will work really hard, spend lots of money. The President will campaign a lot to get people out, but candidates still have to connect with those voters too. They have to bring these voters along who tilt right. If you look at, we talked about this a lot on the campaign trail. You were there on the briefings, we talked about our persuadables and all of this. There's this group of people that tilt right, but they're not Republicans. A, they don't always vote cuz they don't think politics necessarily works for them and B, they're not an absolute lock. So we have to persuade those people further and we have to turn them out. And candidates have to do their part in that too. It means connecting with them on the issues that matter. President Trump is very good at that. He's very good at giving people basically commitments of what he's gonna do as president. So when someone walks into the voting booth, they know what they're getting with Donald Trump. And it's a very clear difference from what they're getting with the other guy or the other girl. In last year's case, Republicans have to have that same contrast to these voters who are not politically engaged per se. The question is, well, what difference does a Republican House of Representatives make to my life versus a Democrat House of Representatives? And that's what every candidate is going to have to offer. They're going to have to make a commitment. Here's the good news. We've made good on our commitments to those voters. So for one, we start with a baseline of trust. We have a baseline of trust with those people. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime pay. All of these things that we promised that those people really turned out on. The question then is what are we going to do for them next? And you will hear me be a big proponent of. We cannot just campaign on our accomplishments. That's important. We have to tell people what we did and they will feel it. But we also have to say, here's the reason to keep us in power. Here's why you need to vote Republicans back into office. Here's what we're gonna do for you next.
Dasha Burns
Trump also blamed the shutdown for the big margins that we saw for Democrats last night. You guys had been saying all along through the shutdown that Americans are blaming Democrats. Does Trump's message mean that this is hurting Republicans more than expected?
James Blair
Some Republicans were saying that we were definitely winning. I would tell you what the numbers roughly say is. It's roughly split. It is roughly split. It has not heavily favored one party or another, the shutdown, and frankly, not that many people have followed it. Now, if this were a Republican led shutdown, actually it would be wall to wall news coverage. Every major outlet would have a ticker how many days it's been and how close people are to death. But since it's a Democrat shutdown, the news has largely blocked it out as best they can.
Dasha Burns
I would push back on that. I do a daily Playbook podcast and we talk about the shutdown every single.
James Blair
Well, you're obviously one of the smarter people because you have me here, obviously. But I'll take a couple. That's not true of mainstream cable. Cable has talked about it much less than they have in the past when Republicans run the shutdown. But that's not the point. The question is, the point the President is making is that the Democrats are just trying to obstruct. They are just trying to stop what's happening and they're not going to change. And eventually, voters don't necessarily know about 60 votes to pass something in the Senate. The very basic answer which the Democrats have been obviously focusing on is Republicans are in power.
Dasha Burns
So why is the government closed talking about 60 votes? You just came back from a breakfast at the White House with GOP senators. One of the things that the President has been pushing for is for them to go nuclear, to nix the filibuster. Is he moving the needle with any of them? What happened this morning, as far as you can tell us?
James Blair
I don't think they had a family conversation and I think they'll continue to have that conversation. Obviously, there's mixed feelings. I think the President's point is that the Democrats have shown that they're just going to be obstructionist. They have not given a single unanimous consent, which is, you know, a Senate procedure where you functionally just agree to something altogether without going through the votes and all this different stuff on a nominee, not a single one. That's Never happened before in history. They have tried to block every single presidential nominee. Now, this isn't just stuff like ambassadors. This is like, you know, the under Secretary of State for xyz. This is the deputy administrator of the epa, Real jobs. They have just tried to stop the Trump presidency in its tracks. And that is why ultimately Republicans changed the rules and they said, we can't live like this. We have to be able to run the country.
Dasha Burns
So is that argument working? Are more people persuaded after the family chat today?
James Blair
I mean, there was people in the room that were persuaded. I will ultimately leave it to the Senate to discuss it. But again, the president's just making the point that the Democrats have made very clear that they are not here to accomplish anything. They do not want to work with Republicans. They don't want to get anything done. They just want to essentially stop the Trump presidency and the Republican majority's agenda.
Dasha Burns
This is something that particularly Thune and Republican senators are very resistant to. And they want to have conversations this week with Democrats. They want to find another way out of this. After last night, do you worry at all that some Republican lawmakers may treat Trump as a lame duck right now?
James Blair
Yeah, I don't think Republicans are going to do that at all. In fact, the spirit was very good in the room. The president sort of has his way of communicating, but the senators have their way. And it's a family at the end of the day. And it was a good conversation. I think that some senators cling to the days where the Democrats were normal people and they wish we could go back to those days. But the Democrats lie. They're not the same people they used to be. I mean, Chuck Schumer has said a thousand times publicly, you don't shut down the government for a debate about policy. And by the way, the country agrees with him. I mean, 70% of people agree with that statement. When you poll the question 10 years ago, Schumer was talking about the fact that we need to have control at the southern border, but all of them rolled over and let 20 million plus illegal immigrants come into the country under Biden. The Democrats have changed. And I think there's guys in the Senate that have served with those people and they have long relationships and they hope somehow the Democrat fever will break one day. And I think the president's view is it's not breaking. They're controlled by aoc. They're controlled by these guys like Mandani, and that's just where their base is. And they are just kind of following suit.
Dasha Burns
Do you see an end in sight for the shutdown?
James Blair
Yeah. I mean, it's going to end eventually, right? I think it will. The president has done his best to mitigate damage to the American people. He has moved around money to pay the troops. He's moved around money to pay law enforcement. We are now figuring out the SNAP thing because we got two conflicting court rulings. Our lawyer's view was that we couldn't pay SNAP with the funds we have. We got two conflicting court rulings that said otherwise. The president requested a clarification. We got clarification over the weekend. So that process is in motion. But, I mean, the important point here is the president has gone out of his way to try to make the shutdown painless for the American people. That's not something he had to do. It's because he's on their side. So there's a point at which he won't be able to do that anymore. There's not infinite funds or authority.
Dasha Burns
I mean, if you had to put money on it over under a week.
James Blair
I'm not a betting man. What can I say?
Dasha Burns
No gambling for James Blair.
James Blair
No.
Dasha Burns
You mentioned immigration. That's another issue that's top of mind for voters. Trump obviously believes really strongly that the actions he's taking now are fulfilling his promises and that it's what people want. After last night, looking at some of the exit polling, do you think there needs to be any sort of policy or messaging change on immigration?
James Blair
Well, I mean, look, I think if you look at the immigration voters, I'm just checking the exit polls here. The Republicans overwhelmingly won. People who immigration is their top problem, their top concern. But I do think that because the president has done such a good job up on doing what he said and functionally closing the border first and foremost, and then starting to get the criminals out of the country, it has receded in the public consciousness of the most urgent thing to do. So there are less voters where that is top of mind, too. And that is sort of when things are good, people don't worry about something as much. When people have concerns, that starts to pop to the top of what they're talking about. And again, people are saying that it's sort of their personal feeling on the economy, and the Democrats won. Now, here's the good news for Republicans. Republicans in every poll are still trusted more than Democrats. The congressional Republicans sort of generically are trusted more than Democrats on the economy. The numbers where you want them to be by the midterms, they're not. But we think that can improve. But even all of this, they still trust Republicans generically more then they trust Democrats. But then the question becomes moving the generic out of the generic to the personal. So let's take Virginia. 48% of people say the economy is their top issue. The gubernatorial candidate functionally doesn't speak about it at all. 50% of their ads about transgender issues, and then a smattering of other things.
Dasha Burns
Lessons learned.
James Blair
And New Jersey, they're talking about the economy. Mikki Sherrill relentlessly focuses on costs. 75% of her ads are positive. She's saying, here's what I will do for New Jerseyans, heavily focused on power costs. Big issue in New Jersey. Now, listen, spending was a factor here, too. They got out, spent, you know, one and a half to one in, you know, about 150% of ad spend.
Dasha Burns
And I said, it's going to be significantly different in the midterms.
James Blair
And it was 2 to 1 in Virginia for Democrats, that's not going to be the case in the midterms.
Dasha Burns
One bright spot that Republicans tell me they saw last night is Zoran Mamdani's, when operatives I talk to are basically salivating at the opportunity to paint him as the face of the Democratic Party. How big are you all going to go on Mamdani in the midterms?
James Blair
Yeah, I think that the races in the midterm should be made about the candidates that we're running against. I don't think we're going to be running against Mandani. I think we're going to be running against individual candidates and individual districts and individual races.
Dasha Burns
So you don't think we're going to see Mamdani splattered in a bunch of ads?
James Blair
I think a lot of people will. Again, it will be up to their teams to sort of figure out whether or not they think that works.
Dasha Burns
You strategically don't think that's the right approach.
James Blair
What I would tell you is that we will study it in the coming months. We'll see how he does, we'll see how people are reacting to him, and we will use whatever strategy and tactic the data tells us is the most effective. But what we do that we're very religious about is we talk to voters, we let them tell us things, and then we calibrate our strategy as a result of what they're telling us. There are many people who start with a thesis, and then they may torture their data advertently or inadvertently to fit their thesis. And we are pretty religious about doing it in the inverse order, which is how you should do it. You should look at the data and then you should develop a strategy.
Dasha Burns
One Democrat that had a big win last night was actually Gavin Newsom, who pushed through the redistricting plan in the state. Do you think you all underestimated Newsom here? How do you size him up going into the midterms and, you know, potentially presidential?
James Blair
I don't think we underestimated the electorate in California. It's not about Gavin Newsom. It's about the electorate in California. I think that we had a sense of what the numbers were going to be in that state. Universal mail in state, off your election. Again, the data sort of tells us where things are going and there is some money spent and supported. But you do have to be a little bit brutal in your allocation of resources. Even though we have lots of money, we're gonna allocate it. Well, that's very important. And the game is not over in California. I'm sure there will be litigation continuing. But I think the only thing we. I don't think we underestimated, but we could have hoped for, is that the California Supreme Court had a shred of honesty or dignity in its reading of the California Constitution. That whole scenario is unconstitutional under a plain language reading of California's constitution and precedent in two different ways. And every challenge that was filed in advance was just immediately tossed one line orders, no thanks. Is basically at all it said. So there are judges that have on blue jerseys that do not care what their law says. They do not care what their constitution says. They don't care what their voters said back then. They're just gonna rubber stamp everything for Democrats. So that's something we have to contend with and we will continue to calibrate accordingly.
Dasha Burns
Redistricting is something that Republicans are pushing for in a bunch of states as well. We know some of the states that it's already happened in or it's in the works in, you know, Texas did it. Indiana, you all are pushing for what other states do you wanna see? Take this up.
James Blair
You know, we'll see what happens in each of those states. But I think it's really important to point out that Democrats have always done this. This is the first time Republicans fought back and we commend them for fighting back. The Democrats. Their third round of litigation in Wisconsin to try to knock out two Republican seats, seats that were drawn by a liberal governor on the orders of a liberal Supreme Court. To be clear, they've been tossed from court twice. They then spent $50 million on a Supreme Court race in their fundraising materials. They said, we can get two more seats this way. Then they filed more litigation in Utah. They're winding towards the end of a case that's been running for 18 months where they went to a liberal judge to knock out two Republican seats. That litigation will continue.
Dasha Burns
So where do you want to combat that?
James Blair
Again, I think there's a lot of states out there talking about it, so we'll have to see how they all move. But I'll put it to you this way. I think, on balance, Republicans will end up netting seats from the redistricting process.
Dasha Burns
How big of a priority is that for you?
James Blair
I think that Republicans should take advantage of every tool they have in the tool chest that is legal to try to win elections, particularly when Democrats are doing that. They've never stopped doing that. This is nothing new on redistricting.
Dasha Burns
Like. Like what I hear from Democrats and Republicans is it's a terrible thing, but we gotta do it because the other side is doing it. Do you agree that this, it's not like a great thing for democracy?
James Blair
I would love it if Democrats would play by the rules, whether gentlemen's rules or actual rules. But you have Democrat judges who don't follow the law, not federally, not state. You have Democrats who impeach.
Dasha Burns
Democrats would argue that Republicans also have judges that are wearing jerseys, but it's not true.
James Blair
I mean, I don't know what that even means. They get slapped in court constantly. And we continue to win. We continue to win at court. And by the way, let's just go back to what happened when the president wasn't out of office. Right?
Dasha Burns
Was it out of office?
James Blair
Was out of office, yeah. The federal indictments, the lawfare, all of these things. Like the toothpaste is out of the tube.
Dasha Burns
We're not gonna go down that rabbit hole today. That'll be.
James Blair
These are just facts.
Dasha Burns
And by the way, for another podcast.
James Blair
Well, let's just be clear, though. The American electorate already rendered its judgment on what they think of that, and they gave Trump the majority vote.
Dasha Burns
He won in 2024. I remember pretty vividly sitting in a briefing with you and Susie Wiles and Chris Lacivita in the sort of war room vibe, you guys, walking us through the strategy that did work wonders in 2024 of getting out low propensity voters. You piloted it in Iowa and then you expanded it across the country. It was super targeted. And where are you in that sort of war room scenario now? And is it a similar strategy where low propensity voters are the targets or what's the sort of North Star for you guys now?
James Blair
I mean, that is definitely sort of an underlying base that has to be achieved, which is raising the midterm engagement of those kind of presidential only voters. So in this case, they're low propensity now for the midterms for sure. So that's sort of a baseline. Rising tide lifts all boats, and then every district will be a little bit different and they will vote on different things. But definitely you have to have campaigns that are not out of the box.
Dasha Burns
What do you mean by that?
James Blair
Not every race is the same and not every candidate is the same. They present different opportunities to exploit to your candidate's advantage. And so you just have to sort of be aware of that. Generically, the generic environment matters, the national environment matters. So there is this stuff that's a baseline, just like turnout is a baseline. But again, each of those races will have to be fought against specific battle lines in the close races to sort of get their edge, to get enough to win. We are already studying that. We've been doing it for months, whether it's at the RNC or sort of. Our outside groups have been collecting data for many, many months in the swing states, building their targeting universes, listening to those voters, seeing how they're moving on what issues, so that when the time is right, they can be heavily, heavily focused on. We communicate with the committees about those things, and I say the global. We obviously sort of our external political people that do the campaigns. But you know, these guys, Tony and Tim Saylor and Chris Lacivita and the rest, they're already watching that very closely. They're sharing that with the committee. So I think you'll see a very sophisticated effort, particularly compared to years past, coming from the right.
Dasha Burns
You said recently that President Trump is very aware of the historical trends that are working against Republicans for the 2026 midterms. How confident are you that you'll be able to change that trend?
James Blair
Well, if I could guarantee anything in life, I'd be a rich man. Right? So nothing's a guarantee. But I do think we have a good playbook, and as long as we execute it, we stand pretty good odds of being successful. He's aware of the trends. He actually talks about this publicly. I mean, he says, if you're having a successful presidency, I don't really know why voters vote against you. But he's aware of the two times in the last hundred years about adding seats and those sorts of things. And he knows what we're up against. But Sort of. Accordingly, I think we will apply an equal recognition of that and what he actually does in terms of campaigning and research.
Dasha Burns
Does he want to get out there physically on the trail over the next year?
James Blair
He does. And I won't speak for when specifically that starts, but I think that by the time we're really in the heat of campaign season, you will see the Trump roadshow in pretty full force.
Dasha Burns
Going back to the Trump rallies, packing my bags.
James Blair
Well, you know, don't fix what's not broken. Right.
Dasha Burns
Before I let you go, I want to ask you to put yourself in the shoes of a Republican who wants to run for president in 2028. And let's put all the speculation aside. Just what lessons would you be taking from last night and what would you be doing right now to put yourself in the best position?
James Blair
I think if you're a Republican that wants to run in 2028, right now you focus on keeping Republicans in power for 2026. I think the number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team and helping their team and not focus on themselves. That's what they should be doing. Because, frankly, I think that voters will sniff out anybody who has seen to be sort of focused on themselves somehow, separating themselves or whatever and not the team. And it's a fool's errand anyway, to be honest with you. The country has, like, it's very, very polarized, you know, for better or for worse. There's a group of people that have red jerseys on, and there's a group of people that have blue jerseys on, and the ones with the red jerseys are a little less inclined to vote. So that's a problem for us. It used to be the case for Democrats 10, 12 years ago. So these things just happen. You go through these cycles based on how your party's demographics are shifting, but then there's a handful of people in the middle who move around if they vote at all. And those people aren't making up their mind for 2028 based on some separation you did in 2026. Right. You have to focus on if you want to be a 2028 candidate, you first better lock down your home. You better make sure that those people who put the jerseys on and you can rely on think you are on their team and you're going to look out for their interests.
Dasha Burns
All right, James Blair, we could do this for so much longer, but I know you got a lot to go get done, so we appreciate you taking the time.
James Blair
Thanks.
Dasha Burns
This has been the conversation with Dasha Burns presented by Playbook. This episode was produced by Cara Tabor and Blair Guild and executive produced by Adeza Egan. Our booking producer is Meg Myers. Ben Reininga is POLITICO's vice president of audio and video, Kyle Blaine is the executive producer of Playbook and Monica Akhtar is the executive producer of Video Mixing by Kyle Murdoch. Our theme music is by Steve Bone. Special thanks to Annie Allen. To make sure you never miss an episode of the Conversation, subscribe to the podcast. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.
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Podcast: The Conversation with Dasha Burns (POLITICO)
Episode: Election Special 2025: Mikie Sherrill and James Blair
Air Date: November 7, 2025
Guests: Mikie Sherrill (Governor-Elect of New Jersey), James Blair (Deputy Chief of Staff, White House; former Trump 2024 Political Director, speaking in personal capacity)
Host: Dasha Burns
This election special dives deep into the 2025 off-year election results, exploring their implications for Democrats and Republicans alike as the country heads into the 2026 midterms. Dasha Burns first interviews Mikie Sherrill, fresh off her landslide win as New Jersey's new governor, discussing her campaign blueprint and governing priorities. In the second half, James Blair offers a Republican insider’s perspective on the challenges, missed opportunities, and strategic recalibrations needed for the GOP after a sobering Democratic sweep.
Transition to GOP Perspective:
Dasha Burns thanks Sherrill for her candor and optimism, then pivots: "When we return, I sit down with James Blair to discuss the GOP strategy for 2026." (23:49)
This episode offers a deeply analytical, unvarnished look at American political strategy post-2025 off-year elections. Sherrill’s interview provides a playbook for successful Democratic messaging centered around competence, action, and working-class priorities, while Blair delivers a candid assessment of Republican shortfalls and the recalibrations necessary for 2026. Both conversations highlight a country where voters prize results and real solutions over ideological rhetoric, and where parties face immense pressure to deliver or risk electoral backlash.