Podcast Summary: The Conversation Election Special 2025

Podcast: The Conversation with Dasha Burns (POLITICO)
Episode: Election Special 2025: Mikie Sherrill and James Blair
Air Date: November 7, 2025
Guests: Mikie Sherrill (Governor-Elect of New Jersey), James Blair (Deputy Chief of Staff, White House; former Trump 2024 Political Director, speaking in personal capacity)
Host: Dasha Burns

Overview

This election special dives deep into the 2025 off-year election results, exploring their implications for Democrats and Republicans alike as the country heads into the 2026 midterms. Dasha Burns first interviews Mikie Sherrill, fresh off her landslide win as New Jersey's new governor, discussing her campaign blueprint and governing priorities. In the second half, James Blair offers a Republican insider’s perspective on the challenges, missed opportunities, and strategic recalibrations needed for the GOP after a sobering Democratic sweep.

Interview 1: Mikie Sherrill, Governor-Elect of New Jersey

Sherrill’s Historic Win & Campaign Strategy

• Landslide Victory: Sherrill describes her reaction as "very exciting," citing early signals and strong turnout data that pointed to a major win, despite "funky" public polling in the final stretch.
  • Quote: "I sort of in my mind thought, you know, I'd really like to have a 10 point victory here. ... But 13 points. I'm like, wow, that was pretty awesome." (03:37)
• Field Program: Attributes success to a record-breaking volunteer effort and grassroots organizing even in Republican strongholds like Ocean County. Notes Democrat wins across all 21 counties.
• Misleading Narrative: Pushes back on pundit anxiety and faulty polling:
  • Quote: "We just looked at it. We're like, this makes zero sense... There was just zero signs of that at all." (04:32)
  • Quote: "I would have people come in, we do, you know, a 500 person rally, and they'd leave saying, I don't know if there's any energy on the ground. I'm like, well, I don't know what else to show you guys." (06:14)

Day One Priorities & Governing Philosophy

• State of Emergency on Utility Costs: Sherrill pledges immediate action to address affordability, freezing utility costs by executive action, staking her political reputation and accountability on it.
  • Quote: "On day one, I'm declaring a state of emergency on utility costs... I'm freezing your utility costs." (09:24)
• Pragmatic, Decisive Leadership: Credits her military background for “decisive, proactive” style.
  • Quote: "As a person who served in the military, I think people understand that I do decisive things, that my leadership style is ... going to be proactive so they can trust I'm going to do it." (10:09)

Navigating Trump’s Washington & Planning for Impact

• Working with Trump: Hopes the administration will see the value in investing in NJ infrastructure projects like the Gateway Tunnel, which she touts as vital for jobs and the regional economy.
  • Quote: "I'm really hoping that the administration can see how key it is to invest in New Jersey... I'm really hoping we can convince the administration, hey, if you want to have a comeback in this economy, this is where you start." (12:03)
• Counterweight or Collaborator? Will fight for state interests but wants "productive relationship" on key federal projects. (12:58)

Democratic Strategy & Party Identity

• Moderate vs. Progressive Narratives: Addresses contrast between her moderate win and Zoran Mamdani’s Democratic Socialist victory in NYC. Emphasizes that effectiveness and focus on working-class issues win votes across constituencies.
  • Quote: "I don't really run to run campaigns. I run to govern. I run to get into office and to make change and to get stuff done." (13:35, repeated from intro)
• Realignment through Results: Asserts that “ruthless competence,” focus on economic issues, and delivering results is the best way for Democrats to rebuild trust and win.
  • Quote: "People have often asked me, you know, what is the key to your success? I say, ruthless competence." (18:19)

Addressing Cost of Living & Tax Policy

• Efficiency Over Cuts: Focus on cutting “bloated administrative” costs instead of slashing services, streamlining permitting, and municipal government reform. Critiques inefficiency and regulatory red tape.
  • Quote: "We like our services, but we're not spending taxpayer dollars as efficiently as we can ... we just are at a breaking point." (18:55)
• Kitchen Table Issues First: Crime/safety and economic opportunity receive priority over other Democratic platform issues in outreach.
  • Quote: "If I am talking to you about abortion and you cannot pay your rent, then we can't talk. ... We've got to talk about the first tier issue." (15:58)

Military Service, Women Leaders & the “Badasses”

• Military Mindset: Connects her success and those of Spanberger and others (“the badasses”) to their backgrounds in national service and "servant leadership."
• Notable Personal Anecdotes: Warm discussion about friendship and parallels with Abigail Spanberger— "how lucky" to share this unique journey with a close peer.
  • Quote: "I mean, how lucky, right, to know the person, the only other person doing what you're doing in the entire country right now ... And you know them really well. And you can be like, hey, does this make sense?" (23:07)

Transition to GOP Perspective:
Dasha Burns thanks Sherrill for her candor and optimism, then pivots: "When we return, I sit down with James Blair to discuss the GOP strategy for 2026." (23:49)

Interview 2: James Blair, GOP Strategist and White House Deputy Chief of Staff

Republican Reactions to Election Night

• Not Surprised: Blair insists Republicans expected the outcome in blue states; claims the "conventional wisdom" post-election is incorrect.
  • Quote: "There was nothing surprising, put it that way. If it was really good night, we would have been surprised." (25:25)
• Normal Midterm Dynamics: Voters are less motivated when their party occupies the White House, a "normal cycle."
  • Quote: "It's not abnormal for turnout to be down in an off year for a presidential party." (26:27)
• Trump’s Role: Anticipates Trump will campaign heavily in the 2026 midterms, noting greater involvement is coming.
  • Quote: "I think he'll be far more involved in the midterms than he was in last night's races." (27:22)

Analysis: Why the GOP Underperformed

• Missed Voters: Votes in NJ & VA fell short of Trump’s 2024 performance—some who turned out for Trump didn’t come out for local GOP candidates, especially young and non-white voters. Votes for Republicans in '25 = Trump’s “recall” vote, no bigger. (29:03)
• Issues, Not Culture Wars: Admits GOP wasn’t connecting on voters’ key economic concerns.
  • Quote: "You can't get beat on the issue that's top of mind by 25 points and win, particularly not in a blue state. That's just not going to be an option." (37:26)
• Messaging Misalignment: In Virginia, half the GOP ad spend focused on transgender issues, which “was not even the top five issues, according to voters.”
  • Quote: "If 48% of voters say their number one issue is the economy, and you spend half of your powder on an issue that's not even in the top five, it's just not going to work." (37:26)
• Comparing Campaigns: Praises Sherrill’s approach—75% positive, affordability-focused ads—versus generic “change” messages and taxes from GOP candidates.
  • Quote: "Jack [Ciattarelli] won the taxes vote, but ... he didn't address those key issues of affordability very effectively." (31:34)
• Exit Polls: Emphasizes economic concerns outweigh Trump-focused “referendum” narratives in this cycle: "Less than 40% of voters last night said that their vote had something to do with opposing Donald Trump.” (29:15)

Strategic Lessons: The Path Forward

• Focus on Cost of Living: Trump is expected to pivot back toward cost-of-living, prices, and pocketbook issues in 2026 messaging.
  • Quote: "I think you'll see the president talk a lot about cost of living as we turn the year and into the New Year." (32:52)
• Voter Experience over Stats: Blair identifies three economic worldviews in voters: stat-trackers, personal finances, and stock-market minded. Campaigns must address all.
• Avoiding Biden’s Pitfalls: Warns against talking up the macroeconomy if voters don’t feel it personally—a trap he says Biden’s WH fell into.
• Candidate Quality: Trump will “weigh in much more aggressively” in high-stakes Senate primaries.
• Coordination & Tailoring: Highlights new Republican emphasis on coordination (RNC, outside groups, campaign committees), and strategic tailoring for each "non-out-of-the-box" race. (53:26)
  • Quote: "Not every race is the same and not every candidate is the same. They present different opportunities to exploit to your candidate’s advantage." (53:54)
• Swing Voters: Notes importance of “presidential-only voters” and “right-tilting, non-Republican” persuadables, requiring a two-pronged strategy: turnout & persuasion.

Republican Policy & Senate Tactics

• Shutdown Politics: Blair insists current government shutdown blame is “split” and that Trump is mitigating harm, shifting the narrative to Democratic obstruction.
• Senate “Nuclear Option”: Trump is urging GOP Senators to end the filibuster due to unyielding Democratic resistance to nominations.
• Immigration: Says Republicans "still" win with voters who prioritize immigration, but that the salience of the issue has faded because Trump fulfilled key campaign pledges.

Redistricting & Democracy

• Newsom’s Win in CA: Blair casts California’s redistricting results as expected due to political realities, calling out the judicial process as stacked for Democrats.
• Republican Approach: GOP will aggressively seek redistricting gains in other states, justified by Democratic practices.
  • Quote: "Republicans should take advantage of every tool they have in the tool chest that is legal to try to win elections, particularly when Democrats are doing that." (51:36)
• Democracy Concerns: Pressed on gerrymandering, Blair deflects: "I would love it if Democrats would play by the rules, whether gentlemen's rules or actual rules." (52:00)

Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

• 2026 Strategy: Success depends on issue alignment, relentless turnout, tailored messages, and offering clear distinctions to voters—“what are we going to do for them next?” not just what’s been delivered already.
• 2028 Prospects: Advises ambitious Republicans to focus on “helping the team” in 2026, not personal brand-building.
  • Quote: "The number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team and helping their team and not focus on themselves." (56:32)
• Renewed Trump Campaigning: Affirms Trump “definitely” intends to get back on the campaign trail in force.
  • Quote: "Don't fix what's not broken." (56:11)

Timestamped Notable Quotes

• “I sort of in my mind thought, you know, I'd really like to have a 10 point victory here... But 13 points. I'm like, wow, that was pretty awesome.” – Mikie Sherrill (03:37)
• “I run to govern. I run to get into office and to make change and to get stuff done.” – Mikie Sherrill (13:35)
• "On day one, I'm declaring a state of emergency on utility costs... I'm freezing your utility costs." – Mikie Sherrill (09:24)
• "You can't get beat on the issue that’s top of mind by 25 points and win, particularly not in a blue state. That's just not going to be an option." – James Blair (37:26)
• "If 48% of voters say their number one issue is the economy, and you spend half of your powder on an issue that's not even in the top five, it's just not going to work." – James Blair (37:26)
• “The number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team and helping their team and not focus on themselves.” – James Blair (56:32)

Key Timestamps

• [03:18] Sherrill on her landslide win and campaign strategy
• [09:24] Sherrill pledges state of emergency on utility costs
• [12:03] Sherrill discusses working with the Trump administration
• [13:35] Moderation, working class appeal, and Democratic brand
• [18:19] “Ruthless competence” and governing as party model
• [25:25] Blair on GOP’s expectations and reactions to results
• [29:03] Analysis of Trump voter "drop off" in NJ and VA
• [31:34] Missed opportunity on cost-of-living messaging for GOP
• [37:26] Strategic lessons on campaign messaging
• [53:26] GOP microtargeting and tailored strategy for 2026 midterms
• [56:32] Advice for 2028 GOP prospects: it’s all about the team

Final Reflections

This episode offers a deeply analytical, unvarnished look at American political strategy post-2025 off-year elections. Sherrill’s interview provides a playbook for successful Democratic messaging centered around competence, action, and working-class priorities, while Blair delivers a candid assessment of Republican shortfalls and the recalibrations necessary for 2026. Both conversations highlight a country where voters prize results and real solutions over ideological rhetoric, and where parties face immense pressure to deliver or risk electoral backlash.