The CPG Guys Podcast Episode: 2026 Early Emerging CPG Themes with CPGGUYS Hosts Sri & PVSB
Release Date: March 18, 2026
Hosts: Peter V.S. Bond (PVSB) & Sri Rajagopalan

Episode Overview

This episode is a Q1 2026 industry round-up, where hosts Sri and Peter synthesize themes, insights, and challenges surfacing in the CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) and FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) industry. Drawing on their own experiences, conversations with leading brands, insights from major conferences, and recent podcast guests, they identify the key trends that will influence the rest of the year. The tone is conversational but candid, with a bias toward actionable insight and honest critique.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. CAGNY 2026: The Volume Growth Reality

Timestamp: 06:17 – 12:41

• CAGNY (Consumer Analyst Group of New York) Conference featured a candid industry reckoning on volume challenges.
• In 2025, leaders were uncertain, with a sense of defeat. This year, nearly 80% of CEOs showed optimism and accepted that volume pressures and omni-channel transformation are not short-term challenges but the new norm.
• Companies are seeking white space innovation and AI leverage, but lag on truly embracing omnichannel.
• Peter: "There was still lack of recognition among a handful, particularly the lower tiers... They had scores of zero. There were three, zeros scored. It was Celsius, it was JBS, and it was Vita Coco that showed absolutely no meaningful understanding of what Omnichannel meant." [09:55]
• Large, privately held manufacturers like Mars and Sargento are better able to focus on long-term growth, free from the tyranny of quarterly reports.

2. AI’s Shift: From Chat to Intelligent Agents

Timestamp: 12:41 – 20:18

• The evolution of artificial intelligence is moving from conversational interfaces and basic tasks to agentic automation—AI platforms autonomously handling complex activities such as continuous content optimization across hundreds of marketplaces.
• For brands, this means ensuring all SKUs—not just top-sellers—have fully compliant, up-to-date content everywhere consumers shop or search.
• Peter: "If you're a big scaled manufacturer... the top 20 items might get monthly treatment... The rest of the portfolio did not get that frequent treatment... Agents are about how do I make sure that my content is in a format that an agent can actually understand the destination and can modify the content..." [14:22]
• Sri: "Who's going to win this battle for the next couple of years... Startups, it's your heyday... You're going to gain share of category..." [19:16]
• Startups, unhindered by legacy content and risk aversion, are poised to take market share as search/discovery moves to AI-powered platforms.

3. Walmart Connect’s Meteoric Growth & Retail Media Wars

Timestamp: 20:18 – 26:54

• Walmart Connect sees 41% YoY growth, a remarkable milestone for a mature retail media platform.
• Acquisition of Vizio bolsters their video and connected TV advertising capabilities.
• Walmart now targets Amazon’s dominance, not just Target, which is "in the rearview mirror" [22:37].
• Target’s retail media sales (Roundel) are no longer a default top-five priority for major brands.
• Sri: "Walmart merchants... are still treating [retail media] as an outward—they’re the best of the lot from an in store business model... The day they realize retail media is the same as display and can drive in store traffic... That will be a game changing moment in the industry." [25:03]
• Amazon’s lead is vulnerable—Walmart's in-store traffic is a unique advantage.

4. The Death of Validation & Real-Time Growth Science

Timestamp: 26:54 – 32:42

• Insights from ConAgra’s Bob Nolan highlight a shift away from relying solely on lagging, retrospective metrics.
• Emphasis now on real-time, predictive, and integrated data—leveraging AI to spot trends and behaviors as they happen
• Sri: "A move towards real time high frequency data... The use of science and predictive modeling... using deeply integrated data to understand consumer behavior..." [28:01]
• Brands must get away from the "rinse and repeat" of last year’s promo strategies; success requires agility and forward-looking analytics.

5. Joint Value Creation: From JBP to JVC

Timestamp: 32:42 – 38:10

• Featuring insights from Jeff Hendricks (Chief Customer Officer, Bimbo Bakeries North America).
• Brands and retailers must move beyond the transactional joint business planning (JBP) model to truly collaborative joint value creation (JVC), focused on consumer outcomes.
• Peter: "If they're writing the checks, they have a right to ask for what they need to justify their investment. Which means typically transparent measurement. Add products that address the full funnel..." [34:16]
• Data sharing (enabled by clean rooms) and real-time action taking are critical. AI will soon mediate more commercial negotiations and collaboration.
• Sri: "Today you can build these private, these private data lakes where you can bring together unified user ID based content for the purpose of driving the right outcomes for your consumer..." [36:15]

6. Social Commerce & Digital Creator Economy Take Center Stage

Timestamp: 38:10 – 41:27

• TikTok Shop projected at $20B+ GMV in 2026; social platforms rapidly entering the top of global commerce channels.
• Brands must be present and authentic on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Pinterest—not just as advertisers, but as engaged observers and participants.
• Sri: "If you’re a senior leader in cpg, especially in marketing or sales... and you do not have a TikTok and Instagram account... shame on you." [39:14]
• Peter: "Joshua Gebhart at Ampt... called it moving at the speed of culture... Optimizing for social inflight right to a retail checkout—you’re leaving probably 40% of the conversion opportunities on the table." [40:07]
• The “speed of culture” now outpaces official marketing—brands not engaged here risk irrelevance.

7. Super Bowl Ad Analytics & the Surge of AI Messaging

Timestamp: 41:27 – 43:13

• Celebrity presence dominated, but practical utility won ad effectiveness.
• Missed opportunities: very few ads included digital, “add to cart” moments or calls to action despite $8M price tags.
• Sri: "In the super bowl ads, they were six ads with one theme... AI." [42:42]
• AI is officially “here,” not just “coming.” Brands missing this wave risk repeating the eCommerce mistakes of the last decade.

8. K-Shaped Economy & the Two-Track Consumer Landscape

Timestamp: 43:26 – 45:56

• The “K-shaped” recovery: Affluent households see gains and fuel omnichannel growth, while lower-income households cut back due to inflation, especially on essentials.
• Sri: "The data is showing a sharp divergence in consumer behavior based on income where higher income households are thriving while lower income households are cutting back creating a two track economy." [43:26]
• For CPGs, the heart of their business is the mass market customer—affordability and value remain paramount.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Privately Held Companies:
  "This is honestly... a really great time to be a privately held company because you're not chasing... the quarter. They can focus on the decade... Real tough times going on, Sree." — Peter [10:38]

• On AI-Agent Commerce:
  "Agent E-Commerce is here. We gave the most simple real life example. Search is the primary aero focus. ...Startups, it's your heyday. Have a great time." — Sri [19:16]

• On Retail Media Priorities:
  "Roundel is no longer in the top five priority RMNs for almost every manufacturer. ...Walmart is just killing it left and right." — Peter [22:37]

• On Super Bowl Ads and AI:
  "In the super bowl ads, they were six ads with one theme. ...AI." — Sri [42:42]
  "People are using it. Stop pretending that AI is like the future... and missed the bus completely..." — Sri [42:57]

• On Social Commerce:
  "If you're a senior leader... and you do not have a TikTok and Instagram account... shame on you." — Sri [39:14]
  "Lead, follow, or get out of the way." — Peter [41:12]

• On Real-Time Action:
  "It’s possible today at real time to measure and course correct." — Sri [31:46]

Timeline of Major Segments

| Topic | Timestamps | |-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | Episode & Conference Season Intro | 00:21 – 06:17 | | CAGNY: Volume Challenges & Omnichannel Laggards | 06:17 – 12:41 | | Evolution of AI: From Chat to Agentic Tasks | 12:41 – 20:18 | | Walmart Connect Growth & Retail Media Competition | 20:18 – 26:54 | | Death of Validation & Predictive Growth Science | 26:54 – 32:42 | | Joint Business Planning to Joint Value Creation (JVC) | 32:42 – 38:10 | | Social Commerce & Creator Economy | 38:10 – 41:27 | | Super Bowl Ad Analysis & AI Messaging | 41:27 – 43:13 | | K-Shaped Economy and CPG Implications | 43:13 – 45:56 | | Closing Remarks | 45:56 – end |

Additional Themes Briefly Mentioned

• Tariff Refund Rush and its pricing impacts.
• Gen Z: Pressures toward sustainability and wellness.
• Talent War: Layoffs at Walgreens, Walmart restructuring, the looming impact of AI on the job pool.

Takeaways

This episode provides a candid, fast-paced review of CPG’s early 2026 landscape:

• The era of “business as usual” is over—both volume and omnichannel transformation require bold, innovative responses.
• AI and automation are moving beyond theory; those who move slowly will cede ground to agile startups.
• Retail media is maturing, with Walmart taking significant share, but success means linking online and offline consumer journeys.
• Success in 2026 requires real-time action, deep data integration, and a willingness to lead (or at least follow) the culture, not just the data.
• The industry must mind the bifurcated needs of the affluent and the value-minded consumer.

For more insights, episode archives, and to connect with the hosts, visit cpgguys.com.