The CPG Guys: Commerce Riff - September 16, 2025

Hosts: Peter V.S. Bond & Sri Rajagopalan
Episode Theme: Weekly analysis and insights on the evolving retail, CPG, and eCommerce landscape, with a particular focus on disruptive trends, major industry news, and strategic leadership challenges.

Episode Overview

Sri Rajagopalan and Peter V.S. Bond deliver a fast-paced, insightful riff on the most pressing news impacting the CPG and retail sectors. This installment unpacks the ongoing effects of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, a landmark Amazon-Netflix partnership in retail media, shifting consumer expectations around holiday discounts, and an eye-opening spike in retail CEO turnover. Both hosts blend deep industry experience with candid, often punchy commentary for an audience of retail executives, marketers, and CPG strategists.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. GLP-1 "Ozempic Effect": Industry Acknowledgment and Apparel Retail Fallout

[02:45 – 04:39]

• Industry Denial:
  Sri points out how, throughout 2023 and 2024, CPG leadership dismissed the market impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (like Ozempic) until undeniable evidence surfaced:
  "I was in the boardrooms when very senior leadership one level above me said, no, Ozempic doesn't matter. GLP1 doesn't matter. This makes no impact because it's too expensive. But now it's part of the story of why there is no growth." – Sri [02:56]

• Apparel Retailers React:
  Retailers are carrying fewer extended sizes and shifting larger sizes online, but most sizing changes remain within the existing plus-size range (per Regent Row's Avneet Singh).
  "Retailers are putting fewer extended sizes on the rack... you see tighter size runs in store and more online only tags once you hit two XL and up." – Sri [04:10]

• Cultural Commentary:
  Peter summarizes the all-too-common executive response:
  "We load fire and then we aim." – Peter [04:00]

2. Amazon-Netflix Ad Partnership: Media Scale Revolution

[04:39 – 07:22]

• Announcement:
  Amazon and Netflix are joining forces: Netflix’s addressable ad audience will be available via the Amazon DSP in Q4 2025, spanning 11 countries and 94 million ad-tier subscribers.

• Advertising Implications:

  • Amplifies Amazon’s standing for upper-funnel reach and targeting.
  • Combines advanced reporting via Amazon Marketing Cloud and consistent measurement tools.
  • Enables audience redundancy controls and reach into new-to-brand buyers.

• Industry Impact:
  Peter highlights his earlier call:
  "If you go back a year you'll hear me make a prediction that by the end of 2025 all the major streaming services would plug as publishers... this is a big deal, very big deal." – Peter [06:31]

• Unexpected Collaboration:
  Sri expresses surprise at the partnership:
  "I didn't see this one coming because Netflix and Prime Video are competition... To me this is partly Netflix wanting to leverage the Amazon cloud and it's also partly Amazon taking advantage of... the Netflix audience." – Sri [06:41]

• Strategic Outcomes:
  Peter sees only advantages:
  "They [Netflix] now have a new army of salespeople... They get an additional demand partner, they get plugged into a measurement platform. I see only wins for both sides of the equation." – Peter [07:07]

3. On the Ground at Amazon Accelerate: Seller Tools and Engagement

[07:22 – 08:33]

• Live from Amazon Accelerate:
  Sri shares he's attending Amazon Accelerate to cover sessions and VIP interviews, emphasizing the direct connection with hands-on sellers.

• Seller-centric Innovation:
  Peter notes the energized atmosphere at Accelerate versus enterprise-focused events:
  "When you go to Amazon Accelerate and they introduce... an AI method to take a package flat and populate a PDP fully... it raises the roof. It is a huge deal because these people are hands on with Amazon sellers." – Peter [08:07]

4. Holiday 2025: Shoppers Brace for Fewer Discounts & Slower Growth

[08:33 – 09:25]

• Discount Doldrums:
  40% of shoppers expect fewer holiday discounts this year (an 8-point jump), with US holiday sales growth predicted to slow to its lowest since the pandemic. (Gartner data)

• Strategic Guidance:
  Peter underscores the importance of value messaging:
  "As a marketer, it’s really about how consumers are feeling. How can you showcase value at every touch point?" – Peter [09:02, quoting Gartner]

5. Tsunami of CEO Departures in Retail

[09:25 – 10:59]

• Turnover Trend:
  Nearly 40 retail CEOs have stepped down in just the first seven months of 2025—a doubling over last year, reflecting widespread instability.

• Notable Exits:
  Target’s Brian Cornell, Ulta Beauty’s David Kimball, Funko’s Cynthia Williams, and LL Bean’s Stephen Smith among those leaving.

• Industry Reality:
  "It's not a great time to be a retailer, particularly in a strongly brick and mortar business. Yeah, if you're a CEO." – Peter [10:36]
  Sri contextualizes this as a long-term problem of focusing on profit over growth:
  "These are people who've catered exclusively to how to make the Numbers Work, AKA Profit and EPS. That's starting to backfire. Gotta grow the top line man." – Sri [10:45]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On GLP-1 Denial:
  "Why deny, deny, deny, deny, deny. Why not get some deep insights before you judge something? Because you don't like the story."
  – Sri Rajagopalan [03:46]

• Amazon + Netflix:
  "That is almost a third of their total worldwide audience, which I think now will make Amazon's DSP by far the best place to achieve scale in upper funnel advertising."
  – Peter V.S. Bond [05:42]

• The Executive Carousel:
  "CEO turnover is climbing... There's just a lot of going on."
  – Peter V.S. Bond [09:25]

Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------| | 02:45 | GLP-1 (Ozempic) impact on CPG and apparel | | 04:39 | Amazon and Netflix ad partnership announcement | | 07:22 | Sri’s preview of Amazon Accelerate | | 08:33 | 2025 Holiday shopping outlook and consumer sentiment| | 09:25 | Spike in retail CEO departures & ramifications |

Tone & Language

Punchy, conversational, and candid—both hosts challenge industry orthodoxy while dropping pro-level insights and practical takes for executives and brands navigating 2025’s turbulent retail waters.