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- [00:02]
A
Hello, it's March 3, 2026. Welcome to the weekly episode of the Commerce riff with the CPG guys. Our weekly short segment, bite sized. 10 minutes of content, audio and video. I hope you enjoy our curated stories. I'm your co host pbsb. I'm joined by Paparazz, the father of pop stars, Co founder and CEO of Think Blue Consulting, sri. How you doing?
- [00:22]
B
Doing great man. Warming up for shop talk. Of course, this year you and I decided not to have a kickoff party because we're focusing on a bunch of podcasts instead several hosted dinners and other events. Year progresses, we are in partnership with Cornell again as we'll be doing the Omnichannel program again. This time combined with retail media, the Sign over times a.k.a. commerce Media Program in July. Right before that happens in July, we're visiting France again for the Cannes Lion Festival. Do tell.
- [00:48]
A
What to expect Peter, we have got one heck of a residence lined up in Cannes Lions. It's a block from the Palais. It's an indoor and outdoor venue, is spectacular. We'll actually be staying there in addition hosting all sorts of events, breakfasts, we'll be doing some content sessions, recording podcast episodes, throwing happy hours. It's going to be a real Cracker Jack time for us, Sree. The CPG guys in partnership with the FMCG guys can's not going to know what hit him. All right, let's get to our stories. Walmart's in the news this week and there is quite a lot to unpack. Let's start with the headline. Walmart has agreed to $100 million settlement with the Federal Trade Commission 11 states over how it treated its Spark Dr. Gig workers. If you're not familiar with Spark small March delivery platform, think Door Dash. But built in house, the allegations are pretty serious. The FTC claims Walmart misled drivers about their base pay. This represented how incentive pay worked. And here's the one that really stings. Told customers that 100% of tips go to drivers when that apparently wasn't always the case. Drivers were also allegedly deceived about their earnings when Walmart modified what are called, quote unquote attached to offers, basically bundled delivery jobs. As part of the settlement, Walmart now has to implement an earnings verification program to make sure drivers actually get what they're promised. Imagine that. Walmart, for its part, said it valued its drivers, has already issued payments to impacted workers and is continuing to improve transparency. Okay, we'll keep watching that one. Now shifting gears, Walmart is making some interesting moves on the tech side. And infrastructure side. The company just announced something called Scintilla in store which is basically the next gen platform for third party retail execution at Walmart stores. The idea is that field reps, people stocking shelves, checking displays, running in store programs for brands will now be guided by real time insights rather than just gut instinct and clipboards. Walmart's framing this as a major step towards smarter, faster in store operations. It builds on an existing platform called Scintilla. SRI and I are very familiar with that which provides first party data insights worth watching as to scale and finally the numbers because Walmart's financials are telling a pretty compelling story right now. Q4 revenue came in at $190.7 billion up 5.6% year over year. Operating income jumped nearly 11% to 8.7 billion. But the real standout? Global e commerce sri up 24% driven by the third party marketplace and store based fulfillment CE. John Furner noted that supply chain capital investments will likely peak this year and next with a heavy focus on automation. CFO John David Rainey put it plainly on the earnings call, technology enabled productivity benefits are critical to our ability to grow our core Omni business at lower marginal costs. So Walmart is settling legal battles with its gig worker force on one hand while aggressively investing in the tech infrastructure that will define its next chapter on the other. That tension? Well that's the Walmart story right now.
- [04:04]
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Sree over to you Walmart, to functional nutrition and it's all about Protein. As more consumers prioritize protein, it seems like nearly every brand is trying to answer the call. From protein pop tarts to higher protein uncrustables, it feels like the trend is at nearly every aisle of the grocery store. And for good reason too. The protein ingredients market was forecast to grow about $86 billion by 2028, according to a 2024 report from Markets and Markets that may make it one of the fastest growing categories in all of CPG and all of retail from a grocery standpoint. Then right on its heels, Doritos announced two products to meet the need of protein seeking consumers. The chip brand collaborated with Jack Links for Doritos, nacho cheese flavored beef jerky and meat sticks. The latest launch extends an existing partnership between Jack Links and Frito Lay that was established in 2023. Peter I still remember selling those in 2011. Consumers want more protein, more flavor, more convenience, and that's exactly what this collaboration delivers, holly Lavallee, senior Vice president of Marketing and R and D at Linked Snacks, said in a statement Whether you're grabbing a quick snack or fueling up for the day, these incredibly flavorful meat snacks make protein easy, delicious and always within reach. The chip maker on Thursday also launches on Doritos Protein Tortilla style chips. This product, which hits shelf next month, offers 10 grams of protein per 1 ounce and comes in nacho cheese and sweet and tangy barbecue flavors. The launch of Doritos Protein marks our strategic expansion into the protein snack category, hernan Tantaradini, chief marketing officer at PepsiCo Foods US said in a statement. This innovation underscores Pepsi Foods commitment to evolving its portfolio to meet shifting consumer preferences towards food with functional ingredients. While I talk about protein, a lot has gone on with dives who educate us.
- [05:45]
A
Yeah, Sri, I will say this about protein Doritos. Isn't that basically just nachos with taco meat on top of it? I mean, it seems like we're getting a little complicated here. All right, the tariff floodgates have officially opened and retail brands, well, they want their money back. One week ago, the Supreme Court ruled against President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers act, or iepa, to impose broad global tariffs. Court found he simply didn't have the authority. It's a landmark decision and the retail industry is moving fast to capitalize on it, the court found. Actually started hearing oral arguments on this back in November on the 5th. And almost immediately, companies in the retail sector began filing Lawsuits in the U.S. court of International Trade seeking refunds with interest on tariffs charged they'd already paid. So who's lining up the list of who's who of retail? On the apparel side, Kohl's, Pacsun, J. Crew, Uniqlo US Entity and Abercrombie and Fitch. In the Athletics and active space, Lululemon, Reebok Beauty brand including Tart, Nelf Cosmetics have filed as well. Even the discount channel is in the mix. Dollar General, Family Dollar and Ollie's Bargain Outlet, they've all filed suit Sree. Now most of these cases were filed before the February 20th Supreme Court decision are currently stayed under an administrative order from December 23, essentially paused while the court figures out how to manage the wave of new filings. But since the ruling came down, a new round of brands have jumped in. Albert Skechers, Sol de Janeiro and l' Oreal have all filed their own IPA refund cases. But here's the important caveat. This comes From Matthew Mimogosis, BBDO's National Practice Leader for customs and international trade. Even if these refunds come through the tariff environment isn't going anywhere clean. His advice to brands you really need to be prepared and can't let your guard down. The shape of future tariffs, their duration, their scope, all remain genuinely uncertain. So yes, Supreme Court ruling is significant win for retail, but it's just the beginning of a long process. It's not the finish line. Sree all right, over to you.
- [07:54]
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All right, the USDA's predictions indicate that while grocery prices will rise overall in 2026, the rate of increase will be below the 2.6 average recorded over the past two decades. For the first time in two decades, the agency forecasted that prices for seven categories of food it looked at for the Food Price Outlook, which is based on Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, will increase faster than the historical average this year. Prices for seven other categories will rise at a lower than average rate, the USDA predicted. Egg prices, meanwhile, are poised to drop by 27.4% this year, according to the report. It drives me crazy, Peter, when people benchmark the whole economy based on the price of ethics. It's like it's the only thing we eat. The categories where the USDA expects to see price rise more quickly than the historical average include beef and veal. Here we go. The agency predicted that price for those types of meat will go up a whopping 5.5% in 2026, lower than the 15% annual rate of inflation that beef and Veal recorded in December 2025, but still very high. Prices for sugar and sweets, which have been going up more rapidly than overall food and home inflation, are likely to rise 6.7% this year. The USDA predicted. That figure will outpace the 20 year average for the category. You know, recently at Cagny you heard Mondelez talk about cocoa pricing and hasn't slowed down a lick. Non alcoholic beverage prices of the likely to rise 5.2% in 2026, about a 20 year average for the category, driven in part by Coffee Pricing Categories llc. Price rises more slowly this year include fresh vegetables, which approach an increase of 1.4% in the USDA predicted. Prices for fresh fruits will rise by a fraction of a percentage point, also below their historical average. Hey chance to get healthy While food and home prices are in a position to rise more slowly than the historical average rate this year, costs for eating out are likely to increase more rapidly, the USDA said. Agency predicted that food away from home price will rise 3.7% in 2026 above the 3.5% average rate of increase they have posted during the last two decades. Let's wrap this up.
- [09:52]
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Peter all right, Sri A reminder to catch up on our recently released episode featuring Nick Modi, Managing Director of RBC Capital. Of course, our favorite Wall street analyst covering who is who in consumer brands, Nick Modi himself. Make sure to check the video of him getting his five timer jacket, which we posted on our LinkedIn page. We didn't release an episode last Wednesday. Travel really caught up with us. Don't worry, we're back on our ball for this week. All right, folks, that's our take on relevant commerce happenings from so many announcements this past week we thought were meaningful. Couldn't pass it up for a riff. We hope you enjoyed it. Please do click like our posts on all platforms LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook and now YouTube. See you next week.
- [10:33]
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