The CPG Guys – Commerce Riff with Sri & PVSB

Episode 12 | November 25, 2025

Overview

In this digestible 10-minute weekly segment, hosts Sri Rajagopalan and Peter V.S. Bond riff on the latest trends and major news impacting the consumer packaged goods (CPG) and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. This episode spotlights Walmart’s strong Q3 performance and leadership changes, the latest food and beverage trends for 2026, a major shift in Kroger’s e-commerce fulfillment strategy, and Target’s ambitious new partnership with OpenAI to enhance both employee productivity and guest experience with AI tools.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Walmart’s Raised Outlook and Leadership Change

[02:12 – 04:23]

• Revenue and Earnings Beat:
  Walmart raised its full-year net sales outlook to 4.8–5.1%, up from 3.75–4.75%, reflecting their strong Q3 with double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers from various income brackets.
• Leadership Transition:
  John Furner, current CEO of U.S. business, to succeed Doug McMillon as Walmart CEO on Feb 1, 2026.
• Consumer Trends:
  CFO John David Rainey observed, “Consumers are looking to do business with those companies that are providing value, that are delivering the convenience that they've come to know and expect and are executing consistently well.” (PVSB, 03:14)
• Stock Listing Move:
  Walmart is transferring its listing to Nasdaq from NYSE, effective Dec 9, maintaining ticker WMT.
• SNAP Impact:
  Pause in SNAP benefits affected sales, but spending is rebounding as government support resumes.
• Analysis:
  PVSB emphasizes that in tough economic times, shoppers consolidate spending, often around Walmart, due to its value proposition and convenience.

2. Top Food & Beverage Trends for 2026

[04:23 – 06:35]

Sri spotlights trends 6–10 from Innova Market Insights’ 2026 prediction:

• Made for Moments:
  Brands innovating with formats for diverse occasions—rise in single-serve, snacks, and adaptation for smaller households.
• Worth Every Bite:
  Value and affordability are top purchase drivers. “33% of consumers are searching for value and affordability in their products... purchases of private label increased by 27%.” (Sri, 05:14)
• Mind Balance:
  Demand increasing for food and beverage products supporting mental health, energy, and stress relief—especially among Gen Z and Millennials.
• Crafting Tradition:
  Heritage and authenticity matter more in uncertain times; consumers seek comfort in traditional products for happiness and family connection.
• Justified Choices (Sustainability):
  2 of 5 consumers prioritize sustainability in purchase choices and are willing to pay more for products that support environmental and social causes, such as supporting local farmers or sustainable packaging.
• Sri’s Commentary:
  “I was screaming up and down the wall two years ago. This is what brands need to do to indicate value.” (Sri, 05:10)

3. Kroger’s E-Commerce Overhaul

[06:35 – 08:46]

• Closing Automated Facilities:
  Kroger is shuttering three automated e-commerce fulfillment centers (WI, MD, FL) to streamline operations and shift more toward store-based fulfillment.
• Partnership Expansion:
  Kroger is deepening ties with Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats for faster, 30-minute delivery in select markets.
• Hybrid Fulfillment:
  Testing “Capital Light” store automation in high-volume areas to balance e-commerce and in-store experience.
• Financial Impact:
  Changes expected to improve e-commerce operating profit by around $400M by 2026.
• CEO Ron Sargent’s Statement:
  “We are taking decisive actions to make shopping easier, offer faster delivery times, provide more options to our customers and we expect to deliver profitable sales growth as a result." (PVSB, 08:05)
• Strategic Shift:
  Similar to a broader retail trend: consolidating fulfillment, partnering for last-mile delivery, focusing on profitability, and leveraging physical store footprint.

4. Target & OpenAI: AI-Powered Retail Experiences

[08:46 – 10:58]

• New Partnership:
  OpenAI and Target are going “multi-modal,” integrating ChatGPT and OpenAI APIs in the Target app for personalized basket recommendations and checkout, with support for pickup or shipping.
• Boosting Productivity:
  ChatGPT Enterprise is now being used internally by 18,000 Target HQ employees to streamline tasks and make teams more creative, moving “faster and smarter.”
• Strategic Goal:
  Target’s aim is to “weave AI through the business, making guest interactions simpler, joyful and giving teams smart tools that cut friction from everyday work.” (Sri, 09:43)
• OpenAI’s Take:
  “A big part of the AI transformation is happening inside enterprises and Target is a great example of what that shift looks like when it’s done with ambition and speed.” — Fiji Simo, CEO of Applications, OpenAI (Sri, 10:01)
• Momentum:
  Target joins over 1 million business customers using OpenAI models; AI is positioned as both consumer-facing and a behind-the-scenes productivity partner.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Consumers are looking to do business with those companies that are providing value, that are delivering the convenience that they've come to know and expect and are executing consistently well.”
  — John David Rainey (Via PVSB), [03:14]

• “I was screaming up and down the wall two years ago. This is what brands need to do to indicate value.”
  — Sri Rajagopalan, [05:10]

• “33% of consumers are searching for value and affordability in their products... purchases of private label increased by 27%.”
  — Sri Rajagopalan, [05:14]

• “We are taking decisive actions to make shopping easier, offer faster delivery times, provide more options to our customers and we expect to deliver profitable sales growth as a result.”
  — Ron Sargent (Via PVSB), [08:05]

• “Target’s goal is weaving AI through the business, making guest interactions simpler, joyful and giving teams smart tools that cut friction from everyday work.”
  — Sri Rajagopalan, [09:43]

• “A big part of the AI transformation is happening inside enterprises and Target is a great example of what that shift looks like when it’s done with ambition and speed.”
  — Fiji Simo, OpenAI CEO of Applications (Via Sri), [10:01]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:12] Walmart’s Q3 performance, outlook, and leadership changes
• [04:23] Food & beverage trends for 2026 (Innova report, trends 6–10)
• [06:35] Kroger’s e-commerce strategy overhaul and fulfillment network changes
• [08:46] OpenAI & Target partnership: AI in retail for customer and associate experience

Style & Tone

Consistent with the hosts’ dynamic and conversational energy, this episode delivers data-backed insights, lively analysis, and plenty of “riffing” on both headline news and underlying industry trends. Sri’s energetic commentary and PVSB’s measured delivery keep things both informative and approachable.

This summary provides actionable context and captures the CPG Guys’ trademark blend of expertise and wit, making it a valuable resource for anyone in retail or CPG who missed the episode.