Commerce Riff with Sri & PVSB - November 25, 2025

Summary

---

The CPG Guys – Commerce Riff with Sri & PVSB

Episode 12 | November 25, 2025

Overview

In this digestible 10-minute weekly segment, hosts Sri Rajagopalan and Peter V.S. Bond riff on the latest trends and major news impacting the consumer packaged goods (CPG) and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. This episode spotlights Walmart’s strong Q3 performance and leadership changes, the latest food and beverage trends for 2026, a major shift in Kroger’s e-commerce fulfillment strategy, and Target’s ambitious new partnership with OpenAI to enhance both employee productivity and guest experience with AI tools.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Walmart’s Raised Outlook and Leadership Change

[02:12 – 04:23]

• Revenue and Earnings Beat:
  Walmart raised its full-year net sales outlook to 4.8–5.1%, up from 3.75–4.75%, reflecting their strong Q3 with double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers from various income brackets.
• Leadership Transition:
  John Furner, current CEO of U.S. business, to succeed Doug McMillon as Walmart CEO on Feb 1, 2026.
• Consumer Trends:
  CFO John David Rainey observed, “Consumers are looking to do business with those companies that are providing value, that are delivering the convenience that they've come to know and expect and are executing consistently well.” (PVSB, 03:14)
• Stock Listing Move:
  Walmart is transferring its listing to Nasdaq from NYSE, effective Dec 9, maintaining ticker WMT.
• SNAP Impact:
  Pause in SNAP benefits affected sales, but spending is rebounding as government support resumes.
• Analysis:
  PVSB emphasizes that in tough economic times, shoppers consolidate spending, often around Walmart, due to its value proposition and convenience.

2. Top Food & Beverage Trends for 2026

[04:23 – 06:35]

Sri spotlights trends 6–10 from Innova Market Insights’ 2026 prediction:

• Made for Moments:
  Brands innovating with formats for diverse occasions—rise in single-serve, snacks, and adaptation for smaller households.
• Worth Every Bite:
  Value and affordability are top purchase drivers. “33% of consumers are searching for value and affordability in their products... purchases of private label increased by 27%.” (Sri, 05:14)
• Mind Balance:
  Demand increasing for food and beverage products supporting mental health, energy, and stress relief—especially among Gen Z and Millennials.
• Crafting Tradition:
  Heritage and authenticity matter more in uncertain times; consumers seek comfort in traditional products for happiness and family connection.
• Justified Choices (Sustainability):
  2 of 5 consumers prioritize sustainability in purchase choices and are willing to pay more for products that support environmental and social causes, such as supporting local farmers or sustainable packaging.
• Sri’s Commentary:
  “I was screaming up and down the wall two years ago. This is what brands need to do to indicate value.” (Sri, 05:10)

3. Kroger’s E-Commerce Overhaul

[06:35 – 08:46]

• Closing Automated Facilities:
  Kroger is shuttering three automated e-commerce fulfillment centers (WI, MD, FL) to streamline operations and shift more toward store-based fulfillment.
• Partnership Expansion:
  Kroger is deepening ties with Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats for faster, 30-minute delivery in select markets.
• Hybrid Fulfillment:
  Testing “Capital Light” store automation in high-volume areas to balance e-commerce and in-store experience.
• Financial Impact:
  Changes expected to improve e-commerce operating profit by around $400M by 2026.
• CEO Ron Sargent’s Statement:
  “We are taking decisive actions to make shopping easier, offer faster delivery times, provide more options to our customers and we expect to deliver profitable sales growth as a result." (PVSB, 08:05)
• Strategic Shift:
  Similar to a broader retail trend: consolidating fulfillment, partnering for last-mile delivery, focusing on profitability, and leveraging physical store footprint.

4. Target & OpenAI: AI-Powered Retail Experiences

[08:46 – 10:58]

• New Partnership:
  OpenAI and Target are going “multi-modal,” integrating ChatGPT and OpenAI APIs in the Target app for personalized basket recommendations and checkout, with support for pickup or shipping.
• Boosting Productivity:
  ChatGPT Enterprise is now being used internally by 18,000 Target HQ employees to streamline tasks and make teams more creative, moving “faster and smarter.”
• Strategic Goal:
  Target’s aim is to “weave AI through the business, making guest interactions simpler, joyful and giving teams smart tools that cut friction from everyday work.” (Sri, 09:43)
• OpenAI’s Take:
  “A big part of the AI transformation is happening inside enterprises and Target is a great example of what that shift looks like when it’s done with ambition and speed.” — Fiji Simo, CEO of Applications, OpenAI (Sri, 10:01)
• Momentum:
  Target joins over 1 million business customers using OpenAI models; AI is positioned as both consumer-facing and a behind-the-scenes productivity partner.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Consumers are looking to do business with those companies that are providing value, that are delivering the convenience that they've come to know and expect and are executing consistently well.”
  — John David Rainey (Via PVSB), [03:14]

• “I was screaming up and down the wall two years ago. This is what brands need to do to indicate value.”
  — Sri Rajagopalan, [05:10]

• “33% of consumers are searching for value and affordability in their products... purchases of private label increased by 27%.”
  — Sri Rajagopalan, [05:14]

• “We are taking decisive actions to make shopping easier, offer faster delivery times, provide more options to our customers and we expect to deliver profitable sales growth as a result.”
  — Ron Sargent (Via PVSB), [08:05]

• “Target’s goal is weaving AI through the business, making guest interactions simpler, joyful and giving teams smart tools that cut friction from everyday work.”
  — Sri Rajagopalan, [09:43]

• “A big part of the AI transformation is happening inside enterprises and Target is a great example of what that shift looks like when it’s done with ambition and speed.”
  — Fiji Simo, OpenAI CEO of Applications (Via Sri), [10:01]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:12] Walmart’s Q3 performance, outlook, and leadership changes
• [04:23] Food & beverage trends for 2026 (Innova report, trends 6–10)
• [06:35] Kroger’s e-commerce strategy overhaul and fulfillment network changes
• [08:46] OpenAI & Target partnership: AI in retail for customer and associate experience

---

Style & Tone

Consistent with the hosts’ dynamic and conversational energy, this episode delivers data-backed insights, lively analysis, and plenty of “riffing” on both headline news and underlying industry trends. Sri’s energetic commentary and PVSB’s measured delivery keep things both informative and approachable.

---

This summary provides actionable context and captures the CPG Guys’ trademark blend of expertise and wit, making it a valuable resource for anyone in retail or CPG who missed the episode.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, it's PVSP from the CPG Guys. It should come as no surprise that we think podcasting is an ideal format to learn while being entertained. Which is why we love to recommend other podcasts to help fill your rotation. And there's a brand new podcast in the commerce space that comes with a distinct female perspective. SheCommerce promotes bold brands, fierce women, and one sisterhood that empowers women in business women one conversation at a time. Chicommerce is more than just a podcast. It's a community hosted by Christina and Jax, two seasoned CPG leaders with almost 50 years of combined international experience, SheCommerce drives deep into the heart of the CPG revolution, tackling the issues that matter most to women in the industry. They're committed to providing real talk, real solutions, and a whole lot of heart. From decoding the latest retail media strategies and accelerating Omni Commerce growth, to navigating work life imbalance, shattering stereotypes and fighting for wage equality, nothing is off limits. Check out SheCommerce via the link in the digital show notes of this CPG Guys episode and wherever you listen to podcasts. Hello, it's November 25th, 2025. Welcome to episode 12 of the Commerce Riff with the CPG guys. A weekly short segment burst digestible 10 minutes of content, both audio and video. We hope you enjoy our curated series. I'm of course your co host, pbsb. I'm joined by Papa Raj himself, co founder of Think Blue Consulting, the man known as Sree. How you doing brother?

[B]

Doing great. Tired today. Lara's well on a Cat's eye tour. We watched him live in Minneapolis 22 shows back to back in NYC. Haven't gotten any sleep but man, I gotta tell you, the fan love is real. Real. RIA starts a headline toward December 1st and it's actually right behind me right here. And please do follow our Instagram, TikTok and YouTube channels. We called it Easy CPG Guys. So let's get to this week. Our first topic, Peter, it seems to be a recurring theme is Walmart. Take it away.

[A]

Yeah. From cnbc. Walmart raised salesman's earnings outlook Thursday as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter driven by dou digit e commerce growth in new customers across incomes. The retailer said it expected full year net sales to climb between 4.8 and 5.1% SRI, up from the previous expectations of 3.75 to 4.75. It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63 a slight raise from its prior range of 252 to 262. It marked the second quarter in a row Walmart hiked its full year forecast. Walmart's earnings report is the first since the Arkansas based company announced a leadership change. The big box retailer said last week that John Furner, the CEO of its U.S. business, will succeed longtime CEO Doug McMillan on February 1, 2026. In an interview with CNBC, CFO John David Rainey said the consumer habits didn't change during the quarter as shoppers spent selectively and look for deals. He said Walmart has gained those value seeking customers across incomes. You know Sree, we've talked a lot of in the past about times are tough, consumers consolidate around their primary grocery retailer and that's what Walmart is at the end of the day because both of the economic backdrop and its own strategic moves. Quote, consumers are looking to do business with those companies that are providing value, that are delivering the convenience that they've come to know and expect and are executing consistently well, he said. He also said Walmart saw an impact from the pause in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP benefits, formerly known as food stamps, during the prolonged government shutdown. But he said that that's starting to rebound now that people are receiving those funds again. Walmart also said Thursday that it will transfer the listing of its common stock to the Nasdaq and will begin trading there on December 9th. It's currently traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Will it have the same stock ticker symbol of wmt? That's a really interesting one. Shree over to you.

[B]

Interesting one indeed. So There are top 10 food and beverage trends for 2026 in a data report from Innova Market Insights. I'm going to give you six through ten here today and I think I picked six to ten around one to five. One to five I think are pretty pretty obvious to everybody. So I'm going to go 6 through 10. The sixth trend is made from ounce which suggests an increase in brands emphasizing the importance of food and beverage product formats for different occasions. Occasion based innovation is predicted to bring a diverse range of formats including snacks, meals and single serve options. Additionally, an increase in single person households and couples with children is expected to bring a new wave of meal and snack formats to retail. Made for moments indeed. The next one is worth every bite which predicts that brands can attract consumers by highlighting special pricing, new formulations, minimal processing and ingredients that are simple and natural. This is I was screaming up and down the wall two years ago. This is what brands need to do to indicate value. The report found that 33% of consumers are searching for value and affordability in their products. 27% of consumers globally said they've increased their purchases of private label by 27%. The next one shows an increase in products with mental health benefits. The Mind Balance prediction highlights the positions of consumers purchasing food and beverage products that provide support for energy levels, stress relief and brain health. According to the data, three in five Gen Z and Millennial consumers are concerned about their mental health. All right, moving on to the penultimate one. Crafting tradition is the penultimate trend. Innova's research showed that Heritage speaks to consumers in uncertain times by offering comfort, reinforcing identity and strengthening authenticity, the data found. Consumers typically turn to traditional food and drinks for happiness, comfort and connection to family. The final trend prediction is justified choices, emphasizing that increased interest from consumers in sustainable practices AKA justified. According to the data, two in five consumers said sustainability is important when buying food and beverages. Consumers are also willing to pay premium prices for sustainable products when demonstrating factors such as support for local farmers, environmental protections, improved product quality of taste and sustainable packaging. What's next?

[A]

Peter Fascinating Sree Progressive Grocer News came in this week that Kroger is significantly retooling its E Commerce strategy in an effort to improve the customer experience and to drive Ready for the history profitable sales growth. Following a comprehensive review, the grocer has decided to shutter its automated facilities in Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, Frederick, Maryland and Groveland, Florida in January while monitoring the remaining facilities performances. Kroger expects these updates to have a positive effect on E Commerce operating profit of approximately $400 million in 2026. This will be used to improve the customer experience through lower prices and better store conditions while also improving operating margins. Over the period past several months, Kroger has steadily expanded its relationship with delivery providers including Instacart, DoorDash and Uber Eats to reach new customers in as little as 30 minutes. Additionally, as part of its new hybrid fulfillment network, Kroger will pilot Capital Light store based automation in high volume geographies to improve fulfillment capabilities and elevate the in store customer experience. The adjustments to the network combined with increased store based fulfillment are aimed at improving return on investment capital. Kroger's hybrid E Commerce offerings will deliver accelerated online growth using its strong and growing store footprint, well established third party delivery providers and automated fulfillment facilities where applicable. E Commerce remains a core part of serving customers who want better value, wide selection and flexible ways to shop, said Ron Sargent, Kroger's Chairman and CEO quote quote we are building a strong foundation with five consecutive quarters of double digit e commerce sales growth and increased profitability improvements. We are taking decisive actions to make shopping easier, often faster delivery times, provide more options to our customers and we expect to deliver profitable sales growth as a result. SRI Last story to you.

[B]

All right get the fun one. It's our audience is now favorite word buzzword, call it what you may which is artificial intelligence. So straight from OpenAI's website, OpenAI and Target partner to bring new AI powered experiences across retail. With the Target app and ChatGPT, customers will now be able to get personalized recommendations at everything they need to occur with multi item baskets and checkout using driver order pickup or shipping. Under the partnership, Target will continue using OpenAI's APIs and ChatGPT Enterprise to boost employee productivity as well and enhance Target's guest experiences. Target, of course, is joining a growing roster that we've already reported on of more than 1 million OpenAI business customers leveraging their models to support core products and platforms. This partnership is growing with a new Target app in ChatGPT and continued use of frontier models that help teams move faster and smarter and deliver even improved guest experiences. Target's work with OpenAI as part of a larger strategy to use technology that elevates the experience for guests, team members, vendor partners. It supports Target's goal of weaving AI through the business, making guest interactions simpler, joyful and giving teams smart tools that cut friction from everyday work. A big part of the AI transformation is happening inside enterprises and Target is a great example of what that shift looks like when it's done with ambition and speed, said Fiji Simo, CEO of applications at OpenAI. We're excited to work with Target as they weave intelligence throughout their businesses to create useful and joyful experiences for their customers and the employees. Boy, Peter, SVG hasn't wasted a minute making new partnerships and relationships with the retailer. Background from Instacart finally, as part of this effort, Target will continue relying on ChatGPT enterprise built to work safely with its proprietary data to move faster, cut through busy work and internally give teams more room to be creative. It has already now been rolled across Target HQ and used by 18,000 employees. All right folks, that's our take on relevant commerce happenings from so many announcements this past week we thought were meaningful and could not be passed on for a rif. We hope you enjoyed it. Please do click like our post on all platforms. Follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube. See you next week.

[A]

Happy Thanksgiving. Gobble gobble. The content in this podcast episode is provided for general informational purposes only. By listening to our episode, you understand that no information contained in this episode should be construed as advice from CPG Guys LLC or the individual author, hosts or guests, nor is it intended to be a substitute for research on any subject matter. Reference to any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by CPGuys LLC. The views expressed by guests are their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or or any entity they represent. The views expressed by CPTGuys LLC do not represent the views of their employers or the entity they represent. CPTGuys LLC expressly disclaims any and all liability or responsibility for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or other damages arising out of any individual's use of, reference to, or inability to use this podcast or the information we present in this podcast.