The CPG Guys — Commerce Riff with Sri & PVSB

Episode: October 14, 2025
Hosts: Sri Rajagopalan (“Papa Raj”) & Peter V.S. Bond (“PVSB”)

Overview

In this timely and opinionated episode, Sri and Peter riff on the week’s most significant CPG and retail omnichannel news, focusing on AI integration into food ordering, PepsiCo’s financial health and category trends, a major Instacart & TikTok retail media partnership, and evolving Halloween consumer spending patterns. With industry insights and a fast-paced, conversational tone, they break down what’s happening, why it matters, and how brands and retailers are reacting.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. ChatGPT Enters Food Ordering & Delivery Ecosystem

Timestamps: 01:11 – 02:36

• OpenAI’s Major New Partnerships:
  OpenAI announced that Uber, Instacart, Target, and DoorDash are among 11 partners integrating ChatGPT this year, aiming for a seamless food and grocery delivery experience.
• AI-Driven Consumer Experience:
  Uber’s Chief Product Officer, Sachin Khansal, is quoted:

  “Soon you’ll be able to see fare ranges, ETAs and browse restaurants right in ChatGPT before seamlessly finishing your trip to actually order in the Uber apps. We can’t wait for people to try and tell us what they think.” [01:48]

• Potential Market Size:
  With 800 million ChatGPT users, these integrations open vast potential for grocers and app developers, expanding the digital ordering audience.
• Host Reactions:
  Sri sees this as a “bonanza for the consumer,” while Peter raises the stakes, suggesting some industry players might find the rapid movement “scary.” [02:15]

2. PepsiCo’s Financial Results & The Volume Dilemma

Timestamps: 02:36 – 04:13

• Earnings Beat, but Underlying Worries:
  • PepsiCo’s Q3 earnings and revenue topped expectations, with EPS at $2.29 (vs. $2.26 expected) and revenue at $23.94B (vs. $23.83B expected).
  • Despite headline success, food and beverage volume fell 1% globally, reflecting ongoing demand softness even as revenue rises.
• Leadership Change:
  CFO Jamie Caulfield’s departure for successor Steve Schmidt (from Walmart).
• Strategic Adjustments:
  CEO Ramon Lagarada notes the emphasis on “shifts to smaller packaging sizes to appeal to price-conscious consumers.”
• Host Commentary:
  Sri underscores the challenge of balancing price and volume in post-COVID CPG:

  “Once P&Ls are adjusted, it’s difficult to take price down and they’re struggling with that... If you take price down, will the volume come back? Who knows? The cola wars are far from over—it’s now a cola war for volume.” [04:13]

3. Instacart & TikTok: The New Power Partnership in RMN

Timestamps: 04:13 – 06:26

• Retail Media Innovation:
  Instacart is launching an exclusive partnership with TikTok to provide CPG advertisers with direct access to Instacart’s retail media network data within TikTok’s Ad Manager platform.
• End-to-End Targeting:
  CPG advertisers can now link Instacart data for targeting, measurement, and enhanced shoppable ad formats, enabling more efficient omnichannel campaigns.
• Industry Significance:
  • Not just a campaign-level cooperation—an unprecedented “end-to-end integration.”
  • Ali Miller (Instacart’s GM of Advertising) quoted in Adweek:

    “Advertisers would soon be able to use Instacart’s audience segments to better target campaigns on TikTok to reach consumers with high purchase intent.” [05:16]

  • Peter observed the buzz at Advertising Week:

    “Next to AI, the Instacart TikTok partnership was the biggest buzz going on ... everybody is really taking notice of this combined relationship.” [06:28]

• Hosts’ Take:
  Sri dubs it “a marriage made in heaven” and sees TikTok-Instacart as a model for integrated retail media innovation.

4. Halloween 2025: Record Spending, Discount Channel Growth

Timestamps: 06:26 – 08:43

• NRF Forecasts:
  Americans to spend $13.1B on Halloween—up 13% YoY (not inflation-adjusted); record forecast.
• Shift to Discount Stores:
  • With specialty stores (e.g., Party City) retreating, discount stores (dollar, off-price retailers) are gaining share—42% of shoppers planning to buy Halloween items from them, the highest since the pandemic.
  • Consumers are seeking value, optimizing spend but still after fun and ‘little treats.’
• Expert Input:
  Kearney’s Kate Thomas remarks,

  “Dollar stores are aiming to get their buck, especially on everyday essentials like groceries ... sets the discounters up for success in other categories as well.” [07:34]

• The “Little Treat Economy”:
  Consumers want affordable indulgence—balancing practical and playful.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ChatGPT-enabled consumer convenience:
  “For the consumer, this is a bonanza. What do you think?” — Sri [02:15]
• On the cola war shifting focus:
  “It’s no longer a Coke and Pepsi Cola war. It’s the Cola war for volume.” — Sri [04:13]
• On Instacart x TikTok integration:
  “Advertisers would soon be able to use Instacart’s audience segments to better target campaigns on TikTok’s platform to reach consumers with high purchase intent.” — Ali Miller (via Sri) [05:16]
• On the surge in Halloween bargain shopping:
  “Discount stores could be the top destination to buy Halloween products ... marks the highest we’ve seen since the pandemic actually started.” — Peter [07:00]

Timeline / Segment Guide

| Segment Topic | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------|-----------| | Episode Opening & Sports Banter | 00:02 | | ChatGPT in Food Delivery Ecosystem | 01:11 | | PepsiCo Q3 Earnings Review | 02:36 | | Volume, Pricing & The Cola Wars | 04:13 | | Instacart x TikTok Retail Media Deal | 04:13 | | Adweek Buzz & Commentary | 06:26 | | Halloween Spending & Discounters Surge | 06:26 | | Episode Recap | 08:43 |

Tone & Language

The episode brims with industry insider insight, conversational energy, and a touch of playful rivalry between the co-hosts. The focus is always on “what it means for brands, retailers, and consumers,” delivered in much the same way you’d overhear at a CPG trade show happy hour.

Summary Takeaway

• AI is finally making grocery and meal ordering seamless, big tech and big apps are all-in.
• PepsiCo’s topline is solid, but the long-tail of post-pandemic pricing is haunting category volume.
• Instacart and TikTok’s new data partnership is setting the pace in next-gen retail media.
• Halloween is getting bigger, but shoppers are getting thriftier—value retail is the new party HQ.

For industry professionals, marketers, and CPG enthusiasts, this episode delivers strategic news analysis and memorable soundbites in a tightly packed, easy-to-digest style—true to The CPG Guys’ signature approach.