The CPG Guys: Commerce Riff with Sri & PVSB – October 28, 2025
Episode Overview
In this brisk, 10-minute “Commerce Riff” episode, hosts Peter V.S. Bond (PVSB) and Sri Rajagopalan break down the week’s top stories impacting the CPG (consumer packaged goods), retail, and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) sectors. The tone remains industry-savvy, casual, and conversational as the duo discusses workforce shifts at Target, impacts on SNAP food assistance, P&G’s earnings, and some spooky realities about Halloween candy inflation.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Target Corporation Workforce Reduction
- Details:
- Target is cutting 1,800 jobs—about 8% of its global headquarters workforce.
- Cuts affect corporate roles only; no store or supply chain jobs eliminated.
- Impacted employees receive pay and benefits until January 3rd, plus severance packages.
- Reasoning & Industry Reaction:
- The move is part of Target’s ongoing effort to “move faster and simplify how we work” (quoting Michael Fidelke, Target COO and incoming CEO).
- Leadership roles are hit three times as hard as individual contributors.
- Industry analysts view the decision as painful but necessary, given a “pattern of weak sales.”
- Notable Quotes:
- Peter: "This spring, we launched our enterprise acceleration effort with a clear ambition to move faster and simplify how we work to drive Target's next chapter of growth." [01:38]
- Michael Fidelke (quoted by Peter): "The complexity we've created over time has been holding us back. Too many layers and overlapping work has slowed decisions, making it harder to bring ideas to life." [02:10]
2. SNAP Assistance Disruption and Inflation Pressure
- Current Situation:
- Over 30 states warn SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) recipients may miss benefits in November due to the government shutdown.
- Rising inflation (3% in September) compounds the problem for American consumers.
- Wrinkle: Government and retailer communication is affecting consumer sentiment and delaying early holiday shopping for lower-income shoppers.
- Walmart, which captures a quarter of SNAP grocery dollars, is especially exposed.
- Retail & Consumer Impact:
- SNAP interruptions hit grocers hardest but ripple out across discretionary retail as cash-strapped families prioritize food.
- Year-over-year spending declines cannot be explained solely by seasonality—analysts cite resumed student loan payments and tariffs as contributing factors.
- Notable Quotes:
- Sri: "With food assistance funds set to become unavailable starting November 1st next month due to the government shutdown, financial pressures already faced by many consumers will only worsen." [02:49]
- Sri (on inflation): "Inflation continues to edge up to 3% in September, the fastest pace it's been all year since January according to the Consumer Price Index..." [03:16]
3. Procter & Gamble (P&G) Earnings Amid Adversity
- Quarterly Results:
- P&G reported a strong quarter, beating earnings and revenue expectations.
- Earnings per share: $1.99 (vs. $1.90 expected)
- Revenue: $22.39 billion (vs. $22.18B expected)
- Year-over-year growth in net income and EPS, despite flat volume.
- Market Dynamics:
- While revenue and profit rose, actual product volume (demand) stayed flat.
- Inflation-weary consumers are more deal-seeking, pressuring volumes.
- CFO Andre Schulten highlights “bifurcation” in U.S. shoppers: less-constrained are buying in bulk, others are seeking promotions.
- Notable Quotes:
- Peter: "The consumer environment is not great, but stable." [06:16]
- Andre Schulten (quoted by Peter): "Shoppers have behaved similarly in the last few quarters. In the United States, consumption across P&G's broad swath of products has slowed a little bit." [06:23]
- Peter (on K-shaped economy): "Shoppers who are less cash constrained are buying bigger pack sizes from clubs and online retailers." [06:46]
4. Halloween Candy Prices & “Shrinkflation”
- The Data:
- Chewing gum and candy prices up 39% since Feb 2020.
- Cocoa costs have nearly doubled since early 2024, driving candy price hikes.
- To manage costs, brands are using more fillers (nuts, white cream) and less chocolate.
- “Shrinkflation”: Smaller packaging, same prices—consumers are noticing.
- Context & Consumer Experience:
- For families and Halloween superfans, the expense bites harder—especially when buying in bulk for trick-or-treaters.
- Creative flavor variants are filling in for more expensive chocolate.
- Notable Quotes:
- Sri (on shrinkflation): "Shrinkflation has taken a gnarly bite out of Espinosa's budget. Get it, Peter? Gnarly bite." [08:48]
- Shopper (quoted): "The bags for chocolate are definitely smaller now and there's less prices." [08:30]
- Peter (playing along): "Sri, with reference to your gnarly comment, I'm not going to touch that..." [09:18]
Memorable Moments & Quotes
- Sri’s Halloween banter and “gnarly bite” pun [08:48]
- PVSB’s baseball update and Halloween wishes [00:02, 07:03, 09:18]
- Industry insight on “K-shaped” consumer recovery [06:46]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- Target Cuts Explained: 00:50 – 02:49
- SNAP/Inflation/Consumer Pressure: 02:49 – 04:58
- Procter & Gamble Earnings: 04:58 – 07:03
- Halloween Candy Inflation: 07:03 – 09:18
- Sign-off & Wrap: 09:18 – 09:47
Tone & Style
The podcast maintains its signature conversational and knowledgeable flair, blending data, direct quotes, and playful banter. The hosts contextualize breaking news for CPG professionals and brands, balancing analytical insight with consumer side anecdotes—never losing their rapport or expertise.
Summary
This episode delivers a succinct but comprehensive pulse-check on CPG retail, from corporate restructurings at Target, looming public-benefit shortfalls, and inflation’s reach into candy bowls—showing how every link in the value chain, from HQ to households, is adjusting for a more complex, cost-conscious market.