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- [00:02]
A
Hello, it's October 28th, 2025. Welcome to episode eight of the Commerce Rift with the CPG guys. Dodgers are in the World Series this week. Lots of CBG and retail news. That's why we do this week over week. It's a short segment burst digestible 10 minutes of content, both audio and video. We hope you enjoy it and your downloads are sure telling us you do. I'm of course your co host pbsb. I'm joined as always by Paparaj himself, co founder and CRO of Think Blue Consulting. Sree, how you doing today?
- [00:32]
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Doing absolutely awesome and looking forward to this Halloween week. Indeed. Both kids are on travel in the music craze to Japan and the UK. Do follow our Instagram TikTok and YouTube channel simply called CPG Guys that Easy. So let's get to it this week. Peter here's Someone's going through a massive workforce reduction.
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Yeah Sree Target Corporation is cutting 1800 jobs in what it deems a quote, necessary step, unquote, according to Grocery Dive. As part of a larger shift to Target's global headquarters structure, the retailer will lay off about 1,000 corporate staff and close to 800 open rolls per details the company shared with sister site Retail Dive. This represents about 8% of its global headquarters workforce, and specifics about those impacted will be shared with employees this coming Tuesday. Today, the day we release this, no store or supply chain rules are part of the cuts, a company spokesperson said Leaders base positions will be impacted at a rate three times the rate of individual contributors. Impacted employees will receive pay and benefits until January 3rd. In addition to severance packages, many corporate Target employees are being asked to work from home next week. In relation to the news, Target is hopeful this change will reduce corporate complexity, noting that the actions are not being taken to save on costs. Quote this spring, we launched our enterprise acceleration effort with a clear ambition to move faster and simplify how we work to drive Target's next chapter of growth. Unquote Target COO and incoming CEO Michael Fidelke said in a note to employees Thursday. Quote the truth is, the complexity we've created over time has been holding us back. Too many layers and overlapping work has slowed decisions, making it harder to bring ideas to life. It's a necessary step to build a future Target and enabling the progress and growth we all want to see. Unquote necessary move, I guess. According to industry analysts, the decision to cut about 8% of corporate roles is viewed by Jeffrey's analysts as painful but needed due to a pattern of weak sales. Everybody agree this next one is a.
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Pain point in many consumers stomachs. With food assistance funds set to become unavailable starting November 1st next month due to the government shutdown, financial pressures already faced by many consumers will only Worsen. More than 30 states this week warned Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs, also known as snap, that they may not have access to November benefits if the shutdown drags on. That's crazy. Peter. The pressure faced by US Consumers is compounded by rising prices in several categories as inflation continues to edge up to 3% in September, the fastest pace it's been all year since January, according to the Consumer Price Index release Friday. Retailers will feel the pinch as well. Grocers are directly affected by SNAP interruption, but discretionary spending will inevitably take a hit as people empty their pockets to feed their families, according to Wells Fargo analyst led by Edward Kelly. This isn't bode well, according to date commentary from those retailers was set to report in early November, Kelly said in a Friday client note he sent out. Other changes to snap, including the disqualification of food items, have already affected retailers including Walmart and Dallas stores, to varying degrees, according to Coresight Research. Walmart alone captures more than a quarter of SNAP grocery dollars. A breakdown in SNAP assistance next month could also delay the early holiday marketing and shopping that many have anticipated expected in need, according to Wells Fargo, though if benefits come through, lower income consumers may be able to follow through on their plans a little later in the season. The interruption of critical nutrition assistance comes amid signs of diminishing consumer sentiment, according to a report earlier this week from BNP Paribas senior equity analyst Chris Potaglieri. Many retailers have described the natural spending a pullback back to school season and Halloween. But that doesn't fully explain the year over year declines found by BNP Paribus. So it wasn't just seasonal. We suspect some of this pressure may be a confluence of student loan resumption, the onset of tariff related impacts in more discretionary categories, and much more relevant for the short term in October. Cuts to SNAP benefits particular Peter Sri.
- [04:59]
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CNBC advised that Procter and Gamble on Friday reported fiscal first quarter earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations lifted by higher demand for its beauty and grooming products despite higher costs from tariffs and what CE John Mohler called a challenging consumer and geopolitical environment. Indeed, P and G reiterated its forecast for all in sales and earnings for the fiscal year which began in July. Here's what the company reported for the quarter that ended on September 30 compared with what Wall street had expected Earnings per share $1.99 adjusted versus $1.90 expected and Revenue of $22.39 billion versus $22.18 billion expected. P&G reported fiscal first quarter net income attributable to the company of $4.75 billion, or $1.95 per share, up from $3.96 billion, or 1.61 per share a year earlier. Excluding certain items, including costs associated with incremental restructuring, the consumer giant earned a buck 99 per share.
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C
Wow.
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The revenue metrics were high. P&G's volume was flat compared with the year ago period. Volume excludes excludes pricing, which makes it a more accurate reflection of demand than sales. Like many consumer companies, P and G has seen demand for some of its products fall as inflation weary consumers seek out deals. The consumer environment is not great, but stable, cfo Andre Schulten said on a call with media, according to the shoppers, adding that shoppers have behaved similarly in the last few quarters. In the United States, the company's largest market consumption across P&G's broad swath of products has slowed a little bit, according to Schulten. Like Coca Cola, P and G is seeing a bifurcation in how consumers are shopping based on their incomes, often described as the K shaped economy. Sree shoppers who are less cash constrained are buying bigger pack sizes from clubs, an online retailer, Sultan, said. Over to you.
- [07:04]
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Happy Halloween. It's time for Halloween this Friday, the 31st of October, three days out NPR series Cost of living the Price We Pay is examining what's driving price increase and how people are coping after years of stubborn inflation. How are higher prices changing, in particular the way you live? What's the item? Candy? How has the price changed since before the pandemic? The price of chewing gum as candy has risen a whopping 39% since February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Why does this happen? The Costa chocolate's main ingredient, cocoa, has nearly doubled since the beginning of last year. That's 2024 hitting historic records again, only to be broken. And again, what are people doing about it? All the major chocolate brands have raised their prices, including Nestle, Lindt, Hershey and Mars, which makes M and M, Snickers and Twix more expensive. And they're resorting to tricks to make their treats, says David Branch, who tracks the cocoa market at Wells Fargo's Agri Food Institute. We're seeing a lot more fillers going into those candy bars, branch says. They're putting in more nuts, less chocolate, keeping the price the same, just reducing the amount of cocoa cost. Reese's makes a Halloween themed peanut butter cup called White Ghost that zipped in white cream instead of chocolate. KitKat's Halloween flavors included Cinnamony Ghost Toast and Marshmallowy Green Colored Witches Brew, both very light on cocoa. Stephanie Espinosa and her husband Matthew Held two shoppers plan to dress as pirates when they greet hundreds of trick or treaters. They stocked up their bags upon bags of Halloween candy and shoppers like them are noticing another tactic. The bags for chocolate are definitely smaller now and there's less prices, says Espinosa, whose town of Babcock Ranch, Florida takes Halloween very seriously. With palm trees sprouting glowing eyeballs and ghosts haunting yards and porches, Shrinkflation has taken a gnarly bite out of Espinosa's budget. Get it Peter? Gnarly bite as she and her husband in their best Spider Chick expect to ahoy and hundreds of trick or treaters. And at that scale, chocolate prices hit with much more of a fright indeed.
- [09:19]
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Sri with reference to your gnarly comment, I'm not going to touch that all right folks, so that's our take on relevant commerce happenings from so many announcements the past week we thought were meaningful and could not be passed on for our riff. We hope you enjoyed it. Please do click like our posts on all platforms. Follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, and now even YouTube. Have a happy Halloween, everybody.
- [09:47]
C
The content in this podcast episode is provided for general informational purposes only. By listening to our episode, you understand that no information contained in this episode should be construed as advice from CPGuys LLC or the individual author, hosts, or guests, nor is it intended to be a substitute for research on any subject matter. Reference to any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by CPGuys LLC. The the views expressed by guests are their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or any entity they represent. The views expressed by CPT Guys LLC do not represent the views of their employers or the entity they represent. CPT Guys, LLC expressly disclaims any and all liability or responsibility for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or other damages arising out of any individual's use of or reference to or inability to use this podcast or the information we present in this podcast.